Some news and notes from around the AL Central…
- The departures of Chris Sale and Adam Eaton haven’t led to more trades of veterans for the White Sox, though GM Rick Hahn won’t rush the rebuilding process, he tells reporters (including CBS Chicago’s Bruce Levine). “If we had our druthers, we would continue to make transactions like the Eaton and Sale deals in rapid succession,” Hahn said. “Our desire is to get through this process and build a sustainable core of talented players as soon as possible. Our desire and impatience is not going to dictate this market and the schedule of these moves. The timing of these moves will be based upon the market and our ability to get the right value in these trades.” Hahn said he remains in talks with other teams and it is possible the Sox could make another deal before either Spring Training opens or before Opening Day.
- The Brian Dozier trade speculation may not be finished yet, as Twins chief baseball officer Derek Falvey told reporters (including Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press) that “You can’t rule out anything. We constantly need to stay open-minded to potential opportunities to add value.” That being said, Falvey also added that “as it stands, Brian is here today and we’re excited to have him as part of the Twins family.” Minnesota reportedly asked teams to make their final offers for Dozier at the start of January and a heavily-rumored trade with the Dodgers failed to materialize and L.A. instead acquired Logan Forsythe to play second base. Since Dozier is under contract for two more seasons at (given his production) a bargain price, the Twins aren’t under much pressure to trade him immediately.
- Mike Napoli could be a good fit for a Twins team looking for both veteran leadership and another bat, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman opines. Napoli could split time with Joe Mauer at first base and DH, and Heyman notes that Napoli has past ties to both GM Thad Levine and chief baseball officer Derek Falvey. This is just my speculation, but I’m not sure if Napoli would be interested in joining a team that isn’t close to contention, though obviously Napoli’s priorities might change the longer he remains unsigned.
- The Indians moved out of their usual financial comfort zone to sign Edwin Encarnacion, though owner Paul Dolan tells MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian that signing Encarnacion was easier than the decision to give up several highly-regarded prospects to acquire Andrew Miller at the trade deadline. “The cost of Andrew Miller was talent. And that’s not in our DNA, to give up that kind of talent for somebody like that,” Dolan said. “I suppose contracts like Encarnacion are not in our DNA, either. But, it was the right time for us, and we felt it was the right time to reach.”
Where’s that guy who kept saying how dumb the twins are for not trading dozier for less than he’s worth.
They are dumb for not trading Dozier now. Even if they can’t get exactly what they are looking for, Dozier is at peak value right now and is unlikely to repeat last year’s numbers. He’s a streaky player and could easily lose a ton of value by the trade deadline. Should’ve taken De Leon when they had the chance.
So you are saying Dozier is at peak value right now. But the offers coming back are not representative of that peak value. So you think they should trade him for pennies on the dollar, while he’s at peak value? When should they wait for fair value if not now? They aren’t going to make the playoffs with him, and they aren’t going to make the playoffs if they trade him. If they can’t get fair value, may as well keep him and sell some extra tickets.
Trading him for 80% of what the Twins think hes worth is better than losing him for nothing in two years
He didn’t say they should sell Dozier for pennies on the dollar, he said even if the Twins weren’t seeing what they wanted for him, they should have conceded and flipped him for JDL as they’ll more than likely not be able to pull a better prospect. The Twins can ask for whatever they want, but the teams looking to trade for the player set the market value, not the Twins.
True, but I didn’t realize letting him go for nothing in 2 years was the only other option.
Those teams only set the price if the Twins agree. Offers not accepted do not set any price. Both sides have to agree. Evidently you think more of Deleon than the Twins do.
Maybe the Twins don’t think DeLeon is worth 80% of Dozier… Just because he’s relatively high on these rankings lists, doesn’t mean the Twins front office values him that way.
I think that if they felt they could get 80% of his value back, they might’ve actually pulled the trigger. Instead, if you want to put a percentage on it, it sounds like they only valued DeLeon at around 50-60% of Dozier’s value since they wanted another significant prospect in addition to him (based on what I’ve read). Whether they were correct or not remains to be seen at this point.
If the Twins offer you a player for X and multiple teams say “No, but we’ll give you Y”, that means the market value is Y. That’s just basic economics.
And I couldn’t care less about DeLeon.
Yes, the market value is currently Y. And if they absolutely had to trade him right now, they would’ve taken Y, but they don’t, and they didn’t. They can play this game for another year and a half if they choose.
Continuing to “play the game” with him is a huge risk, considering how streaky Dozier is and the fact he is already 30 doesn’t help matters. With the comments that he’s still available after insinuating that final offers were due weeks ago, it seems the Twins thought they had LA over a barrel and it backfired.
If you say you will pay Y for player X and you walk away without player X, that means you haven’t set a market rate. You got what you set, Nothing.
Market value is dictated by what people will pay, market rate is dictated by what people have paid. These are two dispret concepts.
oh sherminator is looking or another argument he can lose
Call me Slayer because I slay noobs on this site every day. Come back for more I see
Chester: “Thank you sir may i have another”
Aww, you think you win arguments? That’s soooo cute.
not as cute as your mom
You consider that “slaying people”? Third grade mom jokes??
WOW
Your next
Do you make jokes about other people’s mom because you’re angry that yours rarely lets you out of her basement
Guy, singular?
Pretty much everyone but drunken Twins fans thinks that a rebuilding team should trade a player who had a career year with two years left on his deal instead of waiting for him to regress and have less control.
Twins fans are happy to keep him, lose 100 games and watch him walk for nothing…as long as the Dodgers lose. It’s the strangest thing.
Twins fans might be the oddest fans in all of sports. I never would have guessed it before the Dozier thing came up, but here we are.
I think most twins fans would be happy to see dozier traded. If they got a value return. Deleon alone not worth it, period. That’s done.
If that’s the best offer they got for him, then yes, that is what he’s worth.
He’s only worth what someone is willing to pay.
The odds of his value increasing from this point are rather slim. Even if he continues to play well, he’ll have less control. If he regresses, he’s regressed and he’ll have less control.
No, if that’s the best offer they got for him that’s what he’s worth in the current trade market.
And that’s below value to what he’s worth to the twins for the coming season and likely below value to what he’s worth either at the trade deadline when teams may need a push or next season when more teams lose second basemen.
Your argument is from a closed-minded “twins need to trade him” standpoint. Until you realize it’s actually a very real possibility that he plays this season with the twins (AND that it’s a good business move for the twins for the upcoming season) you are going to only see “twins are rebuilding, they should have taken whatever they could get”. If I’ve said it once I’ve said it 10 times, with brian Dozier’s contract and his status on the team, that is just a ridiculous thing to think of the twins right now.
Not trading him right now doesn’t mean he’s walking in 2 years from twins to free agency. There’s time.
Dozier has more value to the Twins? OK, they can lose 100 games instead of 102 without him.
At the trade deadline, only contending teams who need 2nd basemen would have interest. Which contending team figures to have a need at 2B? Keeping your fingers crossed for an injury isn’t the most solid strategy for running a team. He’ll also have less control. And a dozen other teams who are now out of the playoff picture will have their 2B and/or SS who can play 2B available in trade, as well.
And if they Twins want to extend him? Have fun with Joe Mauer 2.0.
I wish I could trade the Cubs or Cards for the Twins.
Twins are pretty unlikely to repeat 100 losses with the progress of the young guys, so trying to insult an organization like that just makes you sound salty that this deal didn’t get done.
But even with losing less than 100, it’s also very unlikely they compete. But you also seem to either not be acknowledging… or you are ignorant of the fact… that baseball is also a business. Like it or not Dozier is a fan favorite in Minnesota. So there is value in keeping Dozier for ticket sales or Jersey sales, etc.
Also let’s pretend no omen improves and they do potentially lose 100 games again… You’re also acting like bringing in de Leon would have suddenly make them NOT a 100 loss team anymore.
In short, from every conceivable angle you’re unbelievably wrong.
Why? It seems obvious the Twins feel pretty desperate to move him this off-seaaon. After taking “final offers” so they could make a decision on whether they were trading him or keeping him for 2017, they didn’t move him. Now they put it out there that they’re still open to trading him this off-season.
I can see that thinking. but the fact he wasn’t moved shows a team that believes the player is worth more than was offered and are probably right. I’d guess 80 percent of the teams in baseball would rather have dozier than Forsyth. so all the Forsyth trade did was set the base price for dozier if he has even a 75% of what he did last year season.
Except now the team with the most obvious need filled that. Market is based on supply and demand. There isn’t a ton of demand for a 2b right now.
your right but they don’t have to trade him right now. he’s not even a free agent after this season.
your comment proves minis point exactly. their wasn’t a huge market so do they take arguably the only offer below market value (which it was because that same offered the less impressive forsyth) or wait till the trade deadline or this off-season. sure it’s one less year but if dozier is a 30 90, 255 guy with 15sb that’s worth more than just an unproven prospect.
Because it doesn’t look like a market is going to materialize within the next 2 years barring injury, they risk injury/regression, and a player with 1 year of control is going to be worth less than a player with 2.
and a single prospect who went for a lesser 2b is why they should settle?
Twins are not relevant. They are in the most winnable division but their front office is awful. What a waste of a stadium.
Isn’t the FO there brand new? Give them time to prove themselves.
How is it the most winnable division when 4 out of the past 5 years the al World Series representative was from the al central?
The royals are mediocre, the tigers are old, the twins and white sox are rebuilding, and the Indians look to be good, although I don’t think they’re a top team in the league. It’s going to be easy to beat up this division this year
Royals are rebuilding too- Tigers should be as well, but they aren’t.
The Indians are going to run away with this division until 2019
cause Boston is lol
I agree but saying it is the most winnable division is absurd when Cleveland is in it.
twins al wildcard this year you just watch
The small fraction of credibility I was willing to give the Sherminator just went down the toilet with this statement…the Twinkies will be hard pressed to finish anything above last place in the Central…the White Sox and the Twins will have some nice toilet series this season…my hat is off to the Sox though for their intelligent rebuild and it would suit them well to continue to tear it down
Twins won’t be able to compete while paying Mauer 25% of their budget for a 5% return on their money.
Yeah that Mauer contract was unbelievable!
Encarnacion was a great sign by the Indians
That was the thought when they signed Swisher and Bourn too.
Predicted White Sox trade time-line
Rest of Offseason:
Jose Quintana (3 prospects=Headliner: Org #2-#5; Others: Org #8-12; Org #17-#22)
—- Compare it to the Sale trade, but to a slightly lesser degree
Trade deadline
Todd Frazier (2 prospects: Headliner Org #2-4; Other: Org #6-#9)
—–Cespedes to Mets seems like the best comparison
Brett Lawrie (1-for-1 swap– either low-ceiling high floor, or high floor low ceiling)
—-This Coughlan to Cubs from A’s last season
Melky (Low-Level Prospect in a salary dump)
—–Look at Phillies acquisitions of Hellickson, Kendrick and Buccholz)
August
Peter Bourjos (2 high upside Rookie Ballers)
—-think Brandon Guyer trade last season
Geovany Soto (AA reliever)
—-think Dioner Navarro trade last season
I’m not going to attempt to predict the return for guys traded beyond the season because value can change so drastically over that period of time, but regardless- this is my guess
I think you’re valuing Frazier extremely high. If he reverts back to 2015 form I can see him bringing back a Bruce type of deal, but 2016 he was just flat bad. 2016 form at the deadline I’m not sure he’s bringing back much of anything. If we value Cespedes as a top tier hitter we can put Frazier’s performance and approach in the third tier. He’s a guy that’s going to mash a mistake, but he has just not developed into a good hitter.
While I do agree that the op is overrating his value, I think you’re underrating it. He was far from great last year, but he wasn’t as bad as you’re making him sound. Despite the low avg and obp (which is expected with that low of an avg), he was still 9% above league average on offense and produced around 2.5-3.5 WAR depending on which site you look at. Even with that said, I don’t see him bringing as much back as the op suggested unless he goes absolutely ham in the first half.
Yeah, I’m not sure that Frazier was “bad”, but Cespedes had a wRC+ of 134, Frazier 102. If you think there is a bracket from like 100-110, 110-120, 120-130ish then I can see calling him third tier.
If he doesn’t improve he has the same issue that you kinda see with Dozier. There just aren’t that many contenders that need a 3b. And with Frazier, that bat doesn’t really play at 1b or of (if he’s 2016 form).
I should probably clarify. I’m not saying he’s bad. Compared to the Todd Frazier we’ve come to know (14-15), his 2016 was in some ways a major disappointment. I def think he can pick it and I think the 2014-2015 version of Frazier is a productive bat. But I’m not sure we can compare the type of hitter or impact Frazier can have on a lineup like Cespedes. A revert to 2014-15 makes him a valuable piece on a lesser scale, but 2016 player was not necessarily a desirable piece. The caveat being unless you’re starving for a power threat and are comfortable with the high Ks.
How about Robertson? I hope he builds value in the WBC….. Hopefully, he is fully healed from his injury last year.
You mean his injury of having Robin Ventura misusing him for the past two seasons? Yeah, he should be over that.
Robertson should be a 40-50 save guy with very few blown saves, and should prove that this season when Renteria uses him more effectively.
I see Robertson being moved about July when someone is super desperate to get him and will pay nearly whatever the Sox want.
2 things: comparing Lawrie’s value to Cespedes is questionable, at best. Also in that line, you said the same thing re: floor/ceiling both times. You just reversed the order. Did you mean the second one to be high ceiling, low floor?
1) Comparing Lawrie’s value to Cespedes is MUCH worse than questionable; it’s borderline insane.
2) He was comparing Frazier’s value to Cespedes, not Lawrie’s.
3) Comparing Frazier’s value to Cespedes is still questionable, at best.
Still irks me that the White Sox did not get Cespedes on the club last season, but then again with an inept manager in Robin helming the club then I’m guessing that would have been more gas on the dumpster fire.
I’m confused about the Napoli to mini talk. they have Mauer, Vargas, Park and now some guy says get Napoli. How many DH guys does a non contending team need?
Mauer is our team leader, Vargas our 1B and Byung Ho our DH and we are a contending team
Not sure if you’re kidding. But Mauer is anythijg but a leader
The Twins were in last place, 35.5 games out of first ….to a team that will be much stronger than they were in 2016,…..and the Twins ARE A CONTENDER?????
And if Vargas plays first, and Ho is the DH, where is Mauer? “Team Leader” is not a position.
Alternates based on platoon splits
Mauer shouldn’t be a starting first baseman for a rebuilding team. He’s never been a vocal clubhouse leader. I’d be nice if the new regime didn’t baby him so much. I get it, he was a great catcher, one of the best I’ve ever seen, but as a first baseman he holds little value.
Because Park is bad, Vargas is far from a sure thing, and Mauer is slowly becoming bad
sure but Napoli wouldn’t be more than a year and you have Mauer and park for longer than that. it’s dumb.
I Wouldnt say Park is bad, per say. 12 home runs over 62 Games at his salary has value as well as a decent on base percentage compared to his BA (84 point difference).
Besides last year washis first year stateside. Perhaps next year he will be better.
I’ll bet the ChiSox would do more trades like the Eaton one. I’d take the #1 RHP prospect in all of baseball & an organization’s #2 P prospect for my decent, but not great, CF any day. They flat out robbed the Nats, regardless of how cheap Eaton’s contract is.
I go back and forth on this Napoli/Twins thing. Some days I think, why? Other days I can talk myself into it. Not sure he’d choose to come here but I thought the same about Castro. I wouldn’t want him on more than a one year deal though. I’m sure he’d probably feel the same.
If I were the Twins, I’d start Park in AAA no matter what. I’d want him to prove his problems were actually his injury and not just becoming bad. Obviously the injury hurt his stats, but I want to know how much.
So with Park in AAA that would leave just Vargas as the regular DH. Wouldn’t hurt to have another option. Mauer plays 1B vs RH. Napoli plays 1B vs LH. Vargas DH’s vs LH. Then Vargas and Napoli split time vs RH as DH’s. Probably giving Napoli the larger chunk but maybe not a significant difference. Vargas has big splits in the majors, but in the minors that wasn’t the case so maybe he’ll figure it out vs RH.
Twins just dropped Plouffe because of having like sixty guys to cram into 1B, 3B, and DH… unless Napoli can play some OF (yes, I’m joking) I’m not sure he makes any sense whatsoever beyond the veteran leadership he’d bring.
I don’t see Nap coming to the Twins. I do believe they are in the hurt for a veteran leader type. Would love to find a way for Chase Utley, but not sure the playing time would be there. I would be interested in adding an everyday OFer like Angel Pagan or a Brandon Moss. Pagan if healthy might be ideal.
As for Dozier and the Dodgers. The Twins front office must not think all that highly of JDL. The guy has crazy good MiLB numbers, with descent scouting reports but many,many red flags. Durability, below average spin rate, two pitch guy, shoulder history, etc.
I do not think it was any coincidence that the two misguided malcontents during the Blake Laroche fiasco are the first two gone from the Sox clubhouse. I wonder if that is the reason why they went so fast but yet Frazier Robertson Cabrera and Quintana are still around with Hahn apparently not so hot to move those guys at this time, or prepared to ask the world for them and wait.
Not really sure why the Nats overpaid for Eaton, but again I’m sure Rick was laughing all the way to putting his signature on the paper to move Eaton..