To set the stage for the remainder of the offseason, we’ll take a look at the most pressing remaining needs of every team in baseball over the coming week or so, division by division. (Hat tip to MLBTR commenter mike156 for the idea.) We often discuss things through the lens of an organization’s trajectory; thus, a rebuilding team might “need” to move some salary, while a contender might “need” an expensive starter. But with camp in sight, every club is making final calls on who’ll compete for big league jobs in the season to come (while also pursuing broader opportunities), so the focus here is on specific positions on the MLB roster. Fortunately, the task of roster analysis is made much easier by the MLB depth charts available at RosterResource.com. Each team listed below is linked to its respective depth chart, so you can take a look for yourself.
So far, we’ve checked in on the NL West, NL East and AL East. Here’s the AL Central, a division which features the reigning league champions…
- Outfield Depth: The Indians are fine on paper with Michael Brantley, Tyler Naquin, Lonnie Chisenhall and Brandon Guyer representing their primary outfield options, but there’s uncertainty surrounding Brantley. The star-caliber performer from 2014-15 missed all but 11 games last season because of a shoulder injury, and while he and the team are optimistic about his status, “better safe than sorry” applies. With that in mind, the Indians have been connected to free agents like Rajai Davis, a member of the Tribe in 2016, and Michael Saunders. Davis would be the more realistic acquisition, but Cleveland’s payroll limitations are standing in the way of a deal. Whether it’s Davis or someone else, though, having another outfielder – one who’s more established than Abraham Almonte – would be nice.
- Left-Handed Reliever: Again, after winning the Edwin Encarnacion sweepstakes, the Indians might not have the financial freedom to do much else. Nevertheless, they have been in the market for a left-handed reliever, perhaps to take some pressure off Andrew Miller late in games. While Miller is arguably the best reliever in the sport, the Indians will have to monitor his workload to some degree next season after their liberal usage of him last year.
- Utility Infielder: As you can probably tell, the Indians aren’t exactly loaded with weaknesses; hence the “need” to add competition for a reserve infield spot. After a strong season at Triple-A Columbus, Erick Gonzalez is the front-runner to serve as a backup to the Indians’ high-caliber group of infield starters. Michael Martinez could push for a spot, but he has been a woeful hitter in his major league career (.197/.241/.266 in 578 plate appearances). Signing a cheap free agent to vie for a role might not be a bad idea, then.
- Cut Payroll: General manager Al Avila made it clear at the outset of the offseason that the Tigers, who exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2016, need to scale back their spending. Trading on-the-block outfielder J.D. Martinez and his $11.75MM salary would help in that regard, but it would subtract a key piece from what should be a playoff-contending roster. It would be far more beneficial for Detroit’s chances in 2017 to somehow jettison at least one of Anibal Sanchez ($21MM, including a $5MM buyout in 2018) or Mike Pelfrey ($8MM). Teams have checked in on the two right-handers this offseason, but it’s unclear if serious talks have developed.
- Center Field: While the Tigers shed money earlier in the offseason in trading Cameron Maybin to the Angels, doing so left them devoid of even a somewhat proven center fielder. In the wake of Maybin’s exit, Avila said last month he’s seeking center field help “on every front,” as his top in-house choices for next season are Tyler Collins, JaCoby Jones and Anthony Gose. Free agency offers some veterans who shouldn’t cost much in ex-Tiger Austin Jackson, Peter Bourjos and Desmond Jennings, among others, though Avila acknowledged that acquiring a center fielder via trade is a possibility.
- Figure Out The Bullpen: This is mostly in reference to left-handed reliever Justin Wilson, who has drawn significant interest on the trade market this offseason. As is the case with Martinez, though, shipping Wilson out would damage Detroit’s chances of contending in 2017. Plus, Wilson isn’t even particularly expensive (MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz forecasts a $2.7MM arbitration award). The Tigers are also listening to offers for right-hander Shane Greene, but they’re better positioned to absorb losing him with righties like Francisco Rodriguez, Alex Wilson, Bruce Rondon and minor league destroyer Joe Jimenez in the fold. On the other hand, the only non-Justin Wilson southpaw reliever on their projected 25-man roster is Rule 5 pick Daniel Stumpf.
- Bullpen: Like Cleveland and Detroit, Kansas City is another AL Central team dealing with payroll constraints. The Royals aren’t eager to tear things down, though, which would be an easy route to take for a team with so many integral players entering contract years. One of those cogs, closer Wade Davis, is now gone. GM Dayton Moore sent him to the Cubs for a major league contributor – and one with high upside – in outfielder Jorge Soler, which saved the Royals $7MM. That was a sound move by the Royals, but they now have a gaping hole in their bullpen because of it. As a result, they’re searching for a late-game complement to Kelvin Herrera and Joakim Soria, with longtime Royals and now-free agents Greg Holland and Luke Hochevar on the radar.
- Starting Pitcher: Edinson Volquez and Dillon Gee combined for 314 1/3 innings last year – albeit not overly effective ones – and are now out of the organization. The Royals’ depth has taken a hit, then, and they’re on track to rely on Matt Strahm – who was brilliant in relief in 2016 – and 2015 Tommy John surgery recipient Jason Vargas to step into their starting five alongside Ian Kennedy, Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura. That quintet has the potential to succeed, but the club should protect against injuries and/or underwhelming performances with an outside acquisition who’s an upgrade over the likes of Chris Young and Mike Minor. Jason Hammel is reportedly an option if his price comes down enough, but that seems like a long shot. If so, there are several other veteran starters on the open market who will come at lesser costs should the Royals look to bolster their rotation depth.
- Middle Infielder: With Whit Merrifield and 2016 third baseman Cheslor Cuthbert around, the Royals might be able to address this concern from within. That would be ideal for an organization whose other middle infielders scuffled last season. Shortstop Alcides Escobar (.261/.292/.350 in 682 PAs), second baseman Raul Mondesi (.185/.231/.281 in 149 PAs) and backup Christian Colon (.231/.294/.293 in 161 PAs) brought nothing to the table at the plate in 2016.
- Keep Dealing Veterans: GM Rick Hahn said last summer that the White Sox’s direction for 2017 would become obvious early in the offseason. True to his word, Hahn shipped out ace Chris Sale and outfielder Adam Eaton for a cavalcade of touted prospects at the Winter Meetings, thereby announcing that Chicago’s in a rebuild. Sale and Eaton probably aren’t going to be the last known commodities to leave the organization via trade in the coming months, either, as front-line starter Jose Quintana, third baseman Todd Frazier, first baseman Jose Abreu, closer David Robertson and outfielder Melky Cabrera are also available.
- Outfield: The likes of Avisail Garcia, Charlie Tilson and Jason Coats will compete for starting roles alongside Cabrera in left, while waiver claim Rymer Liriano (.220/.289/.266 in his 121-PA major league debut last season) is set to serve as depth. That’s an unspectacular collection of players, clearly, and even the 24-year-old Tilson – the youngest of the bunch – merely projects as a reserve or below-average regular, according to FanGraphs prospect guru Eric Longenhagen. Given the state of the franchise, the White Sox don’t need to make a splash with a big-time outfield pickup, but finding someone to supplement their current group via free agency would be sensible. Adding an inexpensive outfield bat this offseason might serve a purpose around next summer’s trade deadline, where the White Sox could flip that player for another prospect(s) if he shows well.
- Catcher: The White Sox aren’t exactly in great shape behind the plate with Omar Narvaez and Kevan Smith as their top options at the moment. The 24-year-old Narvaez has more upside than Smith, 28, though the former doesn’t have an overly promising track record as either a hitter or pitch framer. Free agency doesn’t offer much in the way of solutions, but the White Sox could benefit from Matt Wieters’ decision. If he signs with the Braves, for instance, the Sox would be wise to at least inquire about their former backstop, Atlanta’s Tyler Flowers. On the other hand, the Nationals could shop one of their well-regarded veteran framers – Derek Norris or Jose Lobaton – if they sign Wieters. White Sox pitchers have lost a lot of strikes lately because of subpar framing, so finding a backstop capable of aiding young starters like Carlos Rodon, Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez would be logical.
- Decide Brian Dozier’s Fate: The Twins’ star second baseman has been on the block throughout the offseason, and a resolution finally looks imminent. New Twins front office bosses Derek Falvey (chief baseball officer) and Thad Levine (general manager) have asked teams to submit their final offers for Dozier and will soon determine whether to trade him. Minnesota is arguably in a win-win position with Dozier, as it’ll either land a high-end prospect (or more) for him or retain one of the sport’s best second baseman for at least a bit longer. The Brewers were in a similar position last year with catcher Jonathan Lucroy, who didn’t go anywhere in the offseason despite myriad rumors. Milwaukee then shipped him to Texas during the summer for a prospect bounty. Dozier, like Lucroy last winter, has two years of team control left at a palatable price tag ($15MM combined).
- Starting Pitching: The Twins have asked teams for controllable starting pitching in their Dozier talks, and they might secure a potential long-term piece in Jose De Leon if a deal with the Dodgers materializes. Otherwise, the Twins have shown interest this offseason in low-cost veterans like Clayton Richard, who re-signed with the Padres, and Justin Masterson. The club has four veteran starters in Ervin Santana, Hector Santiago, Kyle Gibson and Phil Hughes, and acquiring a fifth could lead to all three of Jose Berrios, Tyler Duffey and Adalberto Mejia receiving further seasoning at the Triple-A level.
- Bullpen: Levine revealed a couple weeks ago that Minnesota is searching for experienced late-game arms, and there are a slew of those available in free agency. Even though the Twins aren’t contenders, offering a veteran a prominent eighth- or ninth-inning role could entice one to join the club. The rebuilding Twins could then shop that player as the season progresses if he fares nicely.
Aren’t the Tigers *always* trying to “figure out their bullpen”?
Haha. Yes it has been an ongoing battle for them. They seem to have some good younger relief pitchers on their roster and others that are close to a call up(Jimenez).
I really can’t figure out the Tigers.. I’m a Tigers fan myself. They really have a talented roster. They just can’t put It together.
no speed depend on the long ball tooo much?
The Tigers biggest flaw is their poor choice of Mangers. In spite of stacked lineups every year that effective Managers such as Terry Francona, Joe Maddon and Buck Showalter would have a handful of rings with, Tiger Managers greatest skill is making great and wonderful excuses. The organization rots on the vine because Tiger Managers do not recognize the talent that they have and don’t give young players such as Robbie Ray and Ian Kroll types much of a chance while they have them… Except when they absolutely have to.
The Tigers stunk because of their pitching. It’s that simple. They haven’t had a good bullpen in like a decade, and outside of Verlander and Fulmer, they haven’t had good pitching either. When was the last time they had good pitching? When they had Scherzer/Price, Verlander, a productive Sanchez and Porcello, also the last time(s) they made the playoffs
In 2013, the Tigers had a SP staff of Verlander, Scherzer, Sanchez, Porcello and Fister. The pen was actually good with Benoit, Smyly, Veras, Albuquerque, Coke and Rondon. Certainly you witnessed Jim Leyland’s pathetic mismanagement on full display during the ALCS. My point is that it doesn’t matter how great the pitching or the lineup is, if the Skipper is a poor game time manager.
Cleveland could get a big boost from Bradley Zimmer in the second half and possibily Greg Allen (who did well in a short stint at AA last year) ..both are centerfielders. Eric Gonzales sounds like a solid utility option to me and Yandy Diaz who can play third and the outflield appears ready for the bigs. The indians sign a lefty from the cardinals Tim Cooney to help in the bullpen.
I agree that Zimmer could be a big mid-season call up. I may be in the minority, but I believe he is a better prospect than Clint Frazier because of his ability to affect the game in more ways than Frazier. I think a full year in the minors would be good for Greg Allen (September call up).
I hope Yandy Diaz has a big spring and makes the team. He has more versatility and upside than Almonte. I am not hopeful that fellow PED offender Chris Colabello, signed to a minor league deal, is deserving of a roster spot.
I imagine that they’ll take fliers on some LH reclamation projects here or there and sign one or two to minor league contracts. Otherwise, maybe Morimando can develop enough to fill a role. I’d guess they would prefer to keep Ryan Merritt in the Columbus rotation, but he could get a shot. There is also Rob Kaminsky, but at only 21, they’ll likely be patient with him as a starter in the immediate future.
Pitchers and catchers can’t report soon enough…
I’ve only seen zimmer play once, but I think he has a really high ceiling. The only issue is the Ks. He is in my mind a hit or miss prospect due to his high K totals.
Detriot’s bullpen should be good this year with Krod Rondon Green and Wilson from the right side and Wilson Hardy and Ryan from the left side, In addition, Jimmenez should be available to strength the bullpen. If Zimmerman can come back healthy their rotation should be strong despite a potential regression from Fulmer as Boyd and Norris should get better with a year under their belt.
Jankowski from the Padres would seem to be a trade target for Cleveland. He’s not much of a hitter but is a good center fielder and baserunner and he’s redundant on an underpowered Padres team that should be giving as many at-bats as possible to Manuel Margot. He’s also making the league minimum.
I’d be loathe to see the Padres trade Jankowski at this point. Good defense, good on the basepaths, and his bat could go a long way towards league average if he can cut down the strikeouts to a reasonable level (his BB% last year really excites me, but I don’t know how true that will be going forward). In other words, a good 4th outfielder for a rebuilding club, and I think his value is much higher than anything the Padres could realistically receive back in a trade.
Yeah, I think his ceiling is that of a fourth outfielder though, and those guys can be found fairly easily. He has literally no power at all, and that’s worrying for a guy who strikes out as much as he does. If the Padres could pry loose a decent to good prospect for him I’d be in favor of it, especially if they can find a real shortstop in the deal.
Yeah the K% is concerning. I didn’t watch a whole lot of baseball last year, but I wonder if he was “selling out” for walks with his approach. If that’s the case, I agree that he’s probably around his ceiling given his reliance on speed in his overall game. I’d be willing to roll the dice for another season and see if the BB/K improves. That said, I’d be okay with the Padres trading just about everything for a real SS prospect.
Dixon Machado of the Tigers for Travis Jankowski straight up? Machado is a very good defensive shortstop who draws some walks but like Jankowski does not have much power
Maybe Tigers could also put in Anibal Sanchez or Mike Pelfrey and 15 or 5 million respectively to help out the Padres rotation
From what I watched of Jankowski he has a very specific approach at the plate – he tries to wait out a pitch he can hit the opposite way and then run like hell. He had, I believe, the highest or maybe second-highest % of opposite-field hits in baseball last season. Sorting out pitches to hit can lead to a good walk rate and a bad strikeout rate, which I suspect is what happened with him. Either a pitcher can’t throw strikes and he draws the walk or he gets in a hole quick and is overmatched.
His ISO of .069 is pretty terrible, probably because of his selectivity a looking at pitches low and away, but he still was worth a couple wins last season, mostly because of his defense and baserunning. An 11% walk rate is nice, but he may actually need to get less selective for the bat to play, as odd as that sounds. As a lifelong Padres fan, it would be nice to see an actual shortstop on the team. The last one I can remember is Khalil Greene and that half-season of Everth Cabrera.
I think Pelfrey is a sunk cost at this point unfortunately. His peripherals are quite dire. Machado is sorta similar to the Padres’ Rondon, so I think they’d stay with the devil they know. Sanchez I think is still valuable and could fetch something decent in return if the Tigers would be willing to eat money, but I don’t think the Padres would be a match as they’ll probably be pretty bad over the remainder of his contract. Yankees seem like they would be a good fit: salary conscious, good farm, and question marks in the rotation.
Interesting, I’ll have to keep my eye on his PAs when summer rolls around. I guess looking at his pitches/PA would be useful if you could sort by outcome. I’ll admit, I’m rather fond of his style of play, but I do think he could settle into a Denorfia/Venable (they seem so long ago!) role, or maybe step up as the 3rd outfielder for a time in the event of injury to Margot/Renfroe/Dickerson.
Agree about SS. One of my first seasons following the team was when Greene hit ~30 homers. He was fun to watch. I can still see Turner in a Padres’ uniform if I drink hard enough.
Haha! I feel the same about Turner.
While every team seems to have listed what they need to contend, or to continue a rebuild, Detroit’s “Cut Payroll” doesn’t seem appropriate for this series. Sure it’s something they want to do, but it’s like listing one of Boston’s needs as “staying under the cap”. It’s not something that plays into what a team needs on the field. Centerfield is the major need. Bullpen, due to recent history, is appropriate. Bench Depth would be my second listing, dropping bullpen to third. Romine, Salty, Gose, Aviles, Machado, et al, provided absolutely no depth for the team last year. Replacing Salty with Avila really doesn’t do anything to improve it. A bat with some power, or legs that can steal a base are much needed.
Boston is under the luxury tax, so they don’t need to do anything to get achieve that. It’s been stated the Tigers need to cut payroll for 2017.
Maybe splitting hairs… It’s certainly relevant to their ability to fill needs and could lead to more needs if JD Martinez, Kinsler or Anibal are dealt. I take it you would just prefer he state the needs as the roster sits and be done with it?
If salary and front offie strategy weren’t relevant, then why mention the possibility of Dozier being traded when discussing Minnesota? After all, he is a Twin. I think Connor was just being thorough in his consideration for the Detroit Tigers. Great job and great reads Connor.
How in the world is dumping Sanchez creating additional needs? IMO, it’s addition by subtraction. The only problem would be that the Tigers would have to eat some of/most of his salary if he were traded.
Think beyond the words… They would need to fill his rotation spot.
Sanchez doesn’t have a rotation spot. Verlander, Fullmer, Zim, Norris, and Boyd. That’s five. Sanchez, Pelfrey, and Farmer are on the outside looking in.
My point exactly, stymeedone. Sanchez has no role on the ’17 team. I think JayceInCase is thinking 2014 Sanchez. LOL
Boston staying under the cap also effects the ability to fill their needs. Both teams though, have the option of being over the cap. Being under is not a necessity. It’s a
want, not a need. As GM Avila has stated, it may take 3 years to accomplish their payroll goal for Detroit. That’s why I don’t feel it should be listed, let alone be first. Minnesota is in a rebuild and trading Dozier is part of progressing on the rebuild, which is why that is appropriate.
Please leave Saunders for the Phillies. If there were to be a bidding war for him we all know who would win l
phillies need open spots in the OF to give the youngsters a chance to show what they have ..Phillies will start to contend in 2018!
I’m really enjoying these “3 needs” articles. Great idea. Same with the Burke Badenhop articles that started this year. Both are reasons why MLB Trade Rumors is an amazing site and app. Thanks for all you do for us baseball fans.
As a Tigers fan I do believe that their window has closed. I do think they are still capable of being in the playoff picture but not much more than that. Ideally what I would like to see is that they stay semi competitive this season but trading assets during the trade deadline. I do think they have some good young talent on their current roster. But I think they need a bit of an overhaul with some of their aging players at some point. They seem to be in a position with some of their younger core to not have that long of a rebuild.
The problem is that as long as the Tigers are in the playoff picture, trading away players won’t happen. Instead, they will try to acquire to fill holes at the deadline. I believe they should go for it, but keep to 1-2 year contracts, whether thru trade or signing.
They were in it last year but were quiet at the deadline.
They did trade for Aybar. and signed Presley. I understand the budget restraints limit what they can do.
I think this may be the year that the twins really need to figure out what they have in Buxton. Is he a solid everyday piece or just a quad A super star
He was pretty great the last ~6 weeks of the season when they threw him out there and let him start every day. I agree, he still has a lot to prove. But I’m pretty excited to see what he does this year!
6 weeks just isn’t enough to draw any meaningful conclusions from and he was still striking out at an alarming rate at the end.. I think I’d say I’m more interested than excited to see his season this year. I think it is time for the sink or swim mentality. No more bouncing around between MLB and AAA. We know he can hit AAA pitching. Whether he can cut that k% under 30 vs mlb pitching is another matter.
If Buxton is more avgish mlb player and less top 5 at his position type then that is gonna hurt the twins road to contention. They are in a similar boat with regard to Berrior too.
Buxton was a victim of being called up too soon and fluke injuries. And he’s still young. Not time to give up on him quite yet. That said he’s got some improving to do and if the last month and a half was an indication, it looks like he may have figured things out a little better.
I said “I agree, he still has a lot to prove”
He hasn’t proven he can be an every day guy, but he’s finally had some success he can build off of. I’m not a Twins fan, I just think it’ll be very interesting (exciting) to see what he can do in 2017.
Chris Coghlan would bring little value to the Indians as a backup infielder. He was primarily a LF with the Cubs. In 2014, Rick Renteria used him almost exclusively in that role with a team in the final stage of their rebuild. When Joe Maddon came on board the next season he utilized Coghlan a little more at 2B and 3B over the next two years because he likes playing “musical chairs” with virtually all his players. Fact is, Coghlan brings very little defensive value as an infielder and his weak arm only plays in LF which could benefit the Indians somewhat if Michael Brantley can’t get back on the field.
Bottom line: Coghlan seems like a versatile player but he really isn’t defensively. However, he does bring more value with his ability to bat at different spots in the batting order as a left-handed platoon option who has some pop, can steal a base and provide a relatively high OBP in relation to his BA.
There’s something crushing and demoralizing about losing winnable games after the 6th inning even if you don’t have championship aspirations. The entire Twins bullpen has some sort of question mark attached. It’d be nice to add someone reliable for the back end just so the Twins don’t have to have too many guys pitching above their heads most of the season.
Is there a method to the order these are being done in? Or is it just randomized?
Cut the payroll is not necessarily on the agenda for the Tigers. Despite his early comments, Avila is on record saying that he was not given a specific payroll number to hit. Through natural attrition the Tigers will be under the CBT next season and by 2019 could easily be in the $150M range. While the Tigers could still pull off a trade or two to drop the payroll number, it is clear they want maximum value in return.
Regarding the Tigers’ bullpen, they also have lefties Kyle Ryan and Blaine Hardy available, both of whom have had decent success in the majors over the last couple years. Plus, Matt Boyd could be an option if they go with Sanchez or Pelfrey in the rotation. So, Justin Wilson could be expendable if the Tigers got a good offer for him..
I think their biggest need right now is CF. Neither Collins nor Gose is a very good defensive CF (not that Maybin was either) and Jones could use some more seasoning in AAA. Austin Jackson on a cheap deal as a stopgap would be ideal.
You get nothing from Austin Jackson, Desmond Jennings or Peter Bourjos that you don’t get from Anthony Gose.
Gose does not provide even league average defense. Jackson, Jennings, Bourjos and Gentry are all able to do at least that. Offensively, none of them are exciting.
LHP Blaine Hardy is also on Tigers 25 man roster
Tired of seeing people using ‘pitch framing’ as to if a catcher is good or not, like that was a major issue with the White Sox these past 5 seasons, and not the ineptitude of their manager costing them far more games. I think pitch framing is a poor excuse to find blame with a catcher and not pitchers for hitting their spots (or rather not hitting their spots).
Narvaez had timely hitting (not sure what the author of the story was watching) and could take a walk, both of which factor a heck of a lot more than ‘pitch framing’ to me. (especially since pitch framing may get you a call here or there, but IMO rarely is it that impactful, especially since a pitcher getting the ball consistently over the plate works far better than pitch framing.
Why do you think your opinion is more valid than those who have put extensive study into the benefits that pitch framing provides a team? I’d like to know what you base your opinions on.
Framing to me isn’t only a scientific measurement..it’s also an unscientific indicator of a catchers overall staff handling ability. I really like this measurement because it gives some credence to what used to be an “intangible” It gives guys like Cervelli their due…Russell Martin
To me, Framing is a subjective measurement, because no one will ever know if that pitch, caught by any other catcher, would be called any differently. It could very well be a result of which umpire was behind the plate, than the catcher’s framing ability. Has any study looked at the umpire rotation in relationship to these framing stats?
I’m not aware…but that’s a valid question. But like many things I DO think it helps validate the subjective things we hear from pitchers about certain catchers. I believe its one of MANY things a solid catcher has in the arsenal. I believe that for a long time pitchers around the league could tell you who the best true catchers were. Those guys WOULD know the difference between a guy behind the plate squeezing them on balls or strikes.
With pitchtrax….Im sure the data is there for umpire effect, though Im not aware.
I have heard the Ump stats in the past, about how one squeezes the strike zone, and another tends to be generous. Usually when the broadcasters mention it in the pregame, you tend to see it happen. I’ve also heard the comment “he’s been giving the outside corner all game”. I doubt it was the catcher causing it when that happens.
I have a background in pitching, and can usually spot a catcher that’s framing well…but Im not sure how the measurements are quantified. So much of it is in positioning. Like I was saying…I think it’s one facet of an overall strong catcher. Its a bit of an interesting micro-stat. Thats where we are. A decade ago people were talking the advantage of obp…the A’s type thing….now things are parsed down. I dont have the measurements in front of me…but I’d be surprised if the statistical solid framers were much different than the consensus you’d receive by polling league pitchers.
Stymeedone– ok…I happened upon an article in Grantland that cited research done by Keith Woolner saying that the best pitch framer will save his team a half a run per 100 pitches…the worst will cost his team half a run.
That’s VERY impactful.
@Red_Line_9: Unless said catcher allows a passed ball that causes that ‘half run’ saved to be negated. Or the catcher cannot drive in a run in scoring position that does the same. In a tiny bubble, yes, pitch framing could have that impact. The problem is there is more to what a catcher must do than just pitch framing.
You keep talking about passed balls negating good pitch framing, but relatively speaking, passed balls are very rare. The average team allowed 12 passes balls for the season, or one every 13+ games. A good pitch framer can add 12-18 runs over an average pitch framer, while a good catcher prevents less than 6 more passed balls than an average catcher. I have a hard time thinking that every single passed ball leads to 2 or 3 more runs.
Last I checked I am also allowed an opinion right?
I will add I have watched A LOT of baseball in my lifetime, and pitch framing is a relatively new phenomenon in the past, what, 5, maybe 10, years? If it was that useful and impactful then why was this not done even 20 years ago?
I also see really sub par catchers over all that have ‘good pitch framing’ but contribute nothing in terms of being a decent hitter, which in the many games I have watched, is FAR more impactful in this league since the 90’s.
To put it in a better perspective: Tyler Flowers, by all accounts, is a great pitch framer, right? Well in all of his seasons has he won anything? The correct answer is no. He is a subpar hitter who has had a lot of passed balls in his career last I checked. So who cares if you got a strike here or there if the guy allows a passed ball that allows unearned runs to score? That is just one guy. I’m sure there are many more examples, But being a good pitch framer means nothing if you allow passed balls, cannot have timely hitting and the ability to extend an inning with a walk.
My OPINION is that pitch framing is at best a ‘break even’ stat when it comes to ‘over all’ play by a catcher.. It also matters how good the pitcher is as well. Pitch framing is not going to help a guy all over the plate with a 5+ ERA. Umpires do not give those guys the benefit of the doubt, no matter how ‘good’ of a ‘pitch framer’ a catcher is. Never mind you have umpires out there that have their zone no matter what a catcher tries to do.
I know you’re responding to someone else. I don’t really disagree with you in the fact that pitch framing is one part of a catchers skill set….but pitch framing has been going on probably for as long a catchers have been catching anything. Im guessing you mean the stat use of pitch framing. I so believe its a stat that maybe helps fans more than it does teams in a practical sense. And sure…its a defensive stat…so it puts value on many guys who dont hit much…and it also gives some reasoning as to why some guys banging out a .210 like Jeff Mathis keep getting to stay in swank hotels. I think any pitch frame stat investigation comes into play when you are comping two catchers of seemingly similar ability. Catching is an art form….positioning….building a repoir with a pitching staff..etc. offensive is a major boon if it comes from behind the dish.
With the current offensive standard of catchers (or at least, from my frame of reference playing fantasy baseball), defensive metrics become all that more important. I can’t attest to passed balls (I don’t know the stats or league average), but with a top 5 offensive production along the lines of Posey, Lucroy, maybe Contreras (definitely Schwarber if he returns), McCann, and… Gary Sanchez? It’s not a position where offensive output is abundant – catchers get tired over the season. So if you’re employing 2-3 catchers, why not shoot for pitch framing and then platoon the partners? Pitch framing may not be the most important stat, but for a youg core like the White Sox have, it’s important for development. Personally I think the step back in Rodon’s game in 2016 was in some part due to the lack of Tyler Flowers.
How many championships for the Sox with Flowers behind the plate? How many 20 game winners? Cy Young winners? Regarding Rodon, he had a setback more because he is a young pitcher with sometimes sloppy mechanics and the penchant to rush things; less because Flowers left. Why do I say that? Well he has had improvement and regression at times with Flowers here and with him gone. Some times a young pitcher is just a young player with a lot to learn and no amount of pitch framing will fix that.
I get that pitchers have to have a good relationship with their pitchers, but that is not the discussion here. It is pitch framing.
Is framing a component of a catcher skill set? Sure. but I’m guessing that most baseball folks will say the same thing: If a pitcher is consistently around the plate, they will get their strikes from the ump and not have to rely on a catcher pulling the ball back 3-6 inches (which most umps see and many times call them ‘balls’ anyway, especially if the pitcher is wild all game).
Lets look at Maddux in his dominance. Was that due to pitch framing? No, he had strikes called 6 inches off the plate; that was more due to umpires giving him that area.. I would hazard to guess that the umpire calling the game affects the strike zone more than any ‘pitch framing’.
IMO pitch framing is still an excuse to keep sub par catchers getting their millions. I think the bigger defensive stats folks should be watching are passed balls (maybe ‘wild pitches’ on the catchers day behind the plate) which appear to affect a game far more than any pitch framing.
Finally, if a team has to rely on ‘good pitch framing’ to win games, they need better pitching; not overpaying a sub par catcher who cannot hit his weight (therefore cannot help his team in multiple ways). Again, who cares if a guy has good framing when he leaves 6 guys on base when he is hitting? Or are folks trying to tell me that framing is more important than driving in a run? Flowers could not even hit a SF for crying out loud (which is weird because he swung for the fences ALL THE TIME).
I mean, I don’t think you can use championships or Cy Young award winners to judge a catcher – maybe the latter has more of a precedent, but with respect to the former, teams win championships due to more than one player.. But to answer your question, even though Chris Sale did not win the Cy Young that year, his 2015 was pretty good.
Maddux was good, without a doubt, and I agree that had a lot to do with command. I guess a iconic example I could think of is the difference between 2015 and 2016 for Dallas Keuchel – the major thing that changed was he wasn’t getting the borderline strikes, so teams weren’t swinging. Now, catching wasn’t the difference between the two years, but I do think an good or elite pitch framer could have made Keuchel recapture some of his 2015 levels.
While I agree that offense is important, the current standard for catchers is rather low. Again, I don’t know what the average is for passed balls, so I don’t know how much catchers deviate from that standard.
It’s sort of funny how anti-saber people used to use things like pitch framing, game calling, baserunning, and defense to counteract advanced offense and pitching metrics, saying that it’s not all about numbers and some contributions are too hard to quantify… until they started coming up with ways to quantify those things.
Discovering a method to quantify pitch framing will happen about the time someone discovers the secret of life.
I’ll find the secret of life if you take me back to 1973 with you
We need to go back a bit further; at the point of infinite compression, just before the marble explodes.