It has been one year and one day since the Nationals inked Daniel Murphy to a three-year, $37.5MM contract. Murphy wasn’t exactly a hotly pursued target for D.C., which had previously pushed hard for free-agent Ben Zobrist, chatted with Howie Kendrick about a deal, and nearly consummated a swap with the Reds to acquire Brandon Phillips.
Having explored those other avenues, but found none availing, the Nats struck a Christmas Eve pact that seemed at the time to represent a solid price tag (even with the sacrifice of a draft pick) for a quality player. But expectations were relatively restrained. While Murphy’s torrid late-2015 work had certainly raised his profile, it perhaps hadn’t fundamentally changed his perception around the league. His own former team, the Mets, were content pocketing a draft selection and dealing for a replacement in Neil Walker, and obviously there wasn’t sufficient interest for him to garner even a fourth guaranteed season entering his age-31 campaign.
Needless to say, the arrangement worked out much better than anyone thought possible. In retrospect, Murphy’s unbelievable postseason performance — including a ridiculous 1.462 OPS and seven home runs over 39 plate appearances in the NLDS and NLCS — was a harbinger of things to come.
In 2016, Murphy went from a solid hitter on a hot streak to one of the game’s most productive batsmen. Across 582 plate appearances, he slashed .347/.390/.595 and struck 25 home runs to go with a league-leading 47 doubles. While he still graded poorly in the field, Murphy rated well as a baserunner (though he doesn’t try to steal nearly as often as he used to) and managed to rack up 5.5 fWAR while landing second in the N.L. M.V.P. voting. And though he wasn’t quite as spectacular in his five postseason games for the Nats as he had been for the Mets, Murphy still recorded seven hits, five walks, and six RBI in his 22 postseason plate appearances in 2016.
The remaining two years left on Murphy’s deal now appear to represent quite a valuable asset for Washington. Though the backloaded structure means that there’s still $29.5MM to go, there’s little question that Murphy could command a much greater sum were he back on the open market — which might well have happened had he taken the qualifying offer issued to him by the Mets. That’s all gravy for the Nats, who have already received equivalent value for the entire commitment out of Murphy’s first year.
Things worked out well enough for New York, too. Walker turned in a productive year, though he did ultimately require back surgery that put a premature end to his 2016 season. And unlike Murphy, Walker stuck around; he remains a member of the organization after accepting the QO earlier this offseason. It certainly wouldn’t rate as a huge surprise if he ends up out-producing the man he replaced in 2017.
There’s no direct takeaway from the Murphy signing, but there are a few broader points that it supports. For one thing, notions of upside and floor may well be overstated; Murphy was signed for his steady consistency at the plate, but ended up showing that his apparent late-2015 hot streak was really a reflection of a change in hitting capacity. Whether it’s sustainable, of course, is anyone’s guess; as Murphy’s big season also shows, baseball remains full of surprises even in an age of advanced statistics. And for the free agents who remain unsigned this time around, along with the teams that will ultimately sign them? Well, there’s probably still some money left to be found, and some diamonds still lying in the rough.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
MLBTRDRS Why? Why? Why? On Christmas Day no-less. Why must you rub salt in our wounds? The Grinch Sandy toiled with Daniel like a Cat with a string and cut him loose. Must you really remind Us Daniel Murphy Fans how cruel/inept/stupid Sandy is/was/will-be?
I always felt the Walker trade, combined with recouping a draft pick for Murphy, was a brilliant move.
Giving a MVP candidate to your rival? Their Draft Pick by the way is a so-so prospect who had to have surgery. Daniel lead his team deeper to the Playoffs than the Mets did.
Nobody knew that at the time.
Mets should have, considering they had inside intel on it. Sandy even admitted to knowing Murphy was improved.
And none of that matters because Murph without the improvement is still worth 37 mil.
The Walker trade was great but the moves were not exclusionary of each other.
Sorry to be one-of-those people. However I always knew he was special (All flaws, warts and all).. He was a knucklehead but he was a knucklehead with ALL HEART. He lead the team through the Playoffs and showed his worth. He stood up and stands up when others can’t. I thought his breakthrough year was indicative of what was ahead for him. Sandy never wanted him to stay and valued this pick a lot more than Daniel. Not everything can be quantified and digitalized especially Heart and Will.
I did. I’m a Yankee fan I called it. I said murph was going to bat .560 with 7 homeruns in the 19 games Washington played against the Mets this year and he basically did it, .413 with 7 bombs. And do you know why he did it, because the Mets and the Jets have the same problem. Horrendous coaching on the offensive of side of the ball mixed with poor pennypinching decisions coming from upper management. Things aren’t going to change until they both change owners, otherwise the bad decisions will just keep coming every year.
Agree with eveyrthing about you except that you root for the other team.
Yeah- because they GAVE him to Washington. Quit trolling and root for another team if you really don’t like Alderson that much.
I am a Cardinals fan and I was hoping the Cards would sign him and send Kolten Wong packing.
As bad as the Cards defense was last year though and I can’t imagine it with him at second. Lol
Still – I always thought he had an amazing approach at the plate. Plays with all heart.
Sorry you dont like or agree with my comments. Please skip over them and read others. Sounds as if you are Trolling me. Maybe Jeff Todd will shoot you a note shortly about your behavior.
YEP..Murphy’s a gamer and WINNER.
You seem like the troll from what I’ve read in the comments. We get the point, you don’t like Sandy Anderson. Get over it Donald.
Mets were far from giving Murphy to the nats. They offered him the QO which he declined, Washington explored multiple options on the market for a second baseman and ended up settling on Murphy. I’ll admit it hurts seeing Murphy in a nats uniform crushing the mets but NO ONE could have predicted the numbers Murphy put up with Washington. Mets and especially sandy alderson made the right moves in giving Murphy the opportunity to come back for one more season considering they anticipated Dilson Herrera to be the future of the Mets at 2B. Don’t forget Major League Baseball is just as much of a business as it is game. Say what you will about Sandy but he’s the best GM the Mets have had in a long time.
I agree. Get over yourself dude. Go root for another team. You think you are smartier then Sandy Alderson
Perhaps like so many Mets’ fans, ‘eventually’ had too much bravado from 2015 and it spilled into 2016 with huge disappointment. It’s managing a pitching staff onto the DL; like a parade one after the other that should bring attention to a manager who repeated his mistake with Johan Santana over and over in 2015 and the young pitchers paid the price. Some will not be done paying in 2017 so dampen your bravado once again ‘eventually’.
Certainly I am smarter than a dolt like you.
And this has what to do with the price of chickens? Johan Santana is a completely different topic in itself. Our injuries last season to the pitching staff were mostly because they’re all power arms. Harvey refused to tell anybody about his issue that he even admitted to feeling in the spring. Blame whatever you feel like on Collins, but that is completely ridiculous (and I absolutely hate Collins).
As for the Murphy debate, Alderson absolutely did the right thing taking the pick and acquiring Walker. Any other team would have been happy to do the same, especially since it meant shipping Jon Nose and his insane salary off the books.
Agreed. The Mets had an idea where Murphy was at. I love this article about how baseball is full of surprises, even in an age of advanced statistics. I think back to when the Jays signed Bautista to an extension after one great season in 2010. That deal could have went either way, but the Jays had intel that Bautista had improved and changed his swing. They took a chance and it worked out great for the Jays. Sandy could have done the same thing with Murphy, but went in another direction.
Hindsight is always 20/20. One year ago were you saying, “Da**it Mets. How can you let an MVP candidate walk?!?!” when referencing Daniel Murphy. Answer – no. No you weren’t. If you say otherwise you’re full of sh**.
I’m still not sold on Murphy. Players have career years all the time. I definitely believe 2016 was Murphy’s. I’m definitely not sold on his power being trustworthy. He had hit a career high in HRs in 2015 with 14 and only had 44 fewer ABs that year than he did in 2016…… in which he hit a shocking 25 HRs, da** near doubling his career high in that category. He has 87 career HRs now…… 28.7% of those came last year despite an 8 year career. Before 2016 he was a career .288 hitter (solid) with a .331 OBP (mediocre) and a .755 OPS. His BA and OBP were each about 60 points higher than his career averages and his OPS shot through the roof to .985 on the year. Those are so out of the ordinary I think it is extremely safe to say that if you think that is his new norm you’re setting yourself up for a HUGE disappointment for 2017. willing to be he returns to those career averages for 2017 and hits maybe…. MAYBE 17-18 HRs. Not bad offensively by any means. It’s just that it is hardly what he did in 2016. It will also bring focus back to his well below average fielding prowess. 2 years remaining on the deal paying him an AAV of $12.5M. While not a staggering sum he could still disappoint or just play to that dollar amount level.
Point is……. I think both teams, Mets and Nats, made out just fine in how things shaped up. As for calling Kay a so-so prospect despite being the 31st overall pick in 2016 and not pitching a single minor league game just because he had TJ surgery in October is a bit melodramatic, no? I mean if young pitching prospects having surgery in the Mets system spells doom and gloom and makes them “so-so” then I guess DeGrom, Matz, Harvey, and Wheeler are all “so-so” prospects because all of those guys are regulars on gurneys themselves. If anything if I were a Mets fan I’d be annoyed/upset they continue to draft pitching, but to say signing Neil Walker and getting the 31st overall pick as an overall replacement for Murphy……… I’d say they made out on top……. even including Murphy’s career year in 2016. It’s not like Walker was a bum in 2016. Despite battling injuries he still hit 23 HRs (only 2 shy of Murphy’s total) hit .282 and had a .347 OBP (pretty much what Murphy regularly hits). Thing is, unlike Murphy’s 2016, Walker’s was more in line with what he normally does. Meaning you can actually expect those numbers for 2017. Oh, and Walker is way better defensively than Murph, so there’s that too.
I’m not trying to sh** all over Murphy here. He’s a solid player, no doubt. BUT, all this praise and adoration over him has been seen before over other less than outstanding players coming off career years just to see them return to their normal non-outstanding selves. Joe Mauer who is a solid hitter, had people believing after 2009 he finally found his power stroke and will no doubt find his place among the catching greats in cooperstown for sure when he hit an unprecedented 28 HRs in 2009. Which is 15 more than his previous career high of 13 in 2006. After 2009’s 28 HR campaign though he returned to being the 5-10 HR hitter he is. Sure, he maintained his hitting and on base prowess, but the power was NEVER reel, and people like myself weren’t sold by his 2009 performance. Then there is Chase Headley. A guy who was absolutely nothing special…….. until 2012 when he hit a shocking 31 HRs!!! Before that his high was a whopping 12. He also hit about 20 points higher than his career BA that year and had an OBP 30 points higher than his career OBP. Since then he has returned to being the .250-.260 hitter with a .340ish OBP he was prior to 2012 with only about 10-15 HR power……. even in the little league park he plays at in NY. Jacoby Ellsbury in 2011. Hit 30+ HRs with a .320+ BA and .376 OBP despite being a .290/.340 kind of hitter prior to 2011. He also was like a 5-10 HR hitter…… HARDLY a 30+ HR guy. But he had that career year and people bought into it. His last 2 years in Boston he his a collective .290 with a .340 OBP and averaged about 6 HRs. Yeah. He still managed to cash in from that career year in 2011 though by signing with NY to a ridiculous contract in the 2013-2014 offseason. Good for him I guess.
Those are the most notable recent examples of guys fooling the public into thinking they were something they clearly weren’t. I think in addition to Murphy being over-glorified after his 2016 campaign and being primed for disappointment in 2017, Brian Dozier is also in the same boat. Does anyone really think Dozier is a legitimate 40+ HR hitter? He does have power by hitting 20+ HRs in the previous two seasons with 28 in 2015…… but 42? C’mon. His .260something batting average was also the best of his career……. which isn’t impressive. I think both Murphy and Dozier are being advertised as something they’re definitely not, and their fans are setting themselves up for major disappointments in 2017. Much like the Mauer, Headley, and Ellsbury fans did after they had unprecedented career years themselves.
We’re talking about the General Manager, Sandy Alderson- not the Manager, Terry Collins.
As a realistic fan, 2016 was far from a disappointment. They made the playoffs with a beat up roster. The expectation was to make the playoffs again- the end. Unlike the Yankees, it’s not always World Series or bust- even if you made it the previous year.
soxfan1:
I’m with you. Sandy Anderson was my neighbor in Frostbite Falls and he was the nicest guy. We had lots of Andersons on the block — Andy, Bo, Karl, Bert, Andy the Second, Pete — they was all Andersons, but Sandy Anderson was one of the nicest. He always carried my mom’s trash cans back to the stoop and gave the kids caramel apples at Halloween. So please don’t pick on Sandy Anderson.
+1 this is exactly my sentiment…either mets FO and scouts suck, they are really hurting for money, or they literally had no idea what to do…
not going to argue about GM and sandy’s rating among those in mets history…thats another topic…dont divert…
the fact is mets did not negotiate with murphy AT ALL when he became an FA. they offered the QO and didnt talk at all afterwards…nothing constructive at the least…Murphy even said himself he was waiting to hear back from the mets after the nats made the offer…get real you schill…he would have given the mets a hometown discount.
I thought his name was Sandy Alderson…
True, especially factoring in that they only had a guy they were looking to be rid of for him.
“It certainly wouldn’t rate as a huge surprise if he ends up out-producing the man he replaced in 2017.”
While maybe technically true (due to “huge”), it would indeed be a very big surprise if Walker coming off injury has a better year than Murphy having emerged as one of the best hitters in baseball.
Well, I did include that qualifier (“huge”) for several reasons. But historically, Walker was as good or better at the plate. Even accepting that Murphy is clearly the better hitter at this stage, there’s a decent chance that Walker outperforms him just due to luck, health, etc.
Let’s not forget Murphy was washingtons Third choice. So it’s not like they or any other team foresaw the year he was going to put up
lets not forget that move is still brilliant for the NAT’s considering they made the mets weaker, and dramatically improved themselves at a discount rate.
That is completely ridiculous to say they made the Mets weaker. The Mets got arguably stronger at the time that this unfolded. Walker is better defensively and has a good bat. He made roughly $2M less for last season while he saved the Mets by taking Niese off the books with his ridiculous $10M+ season.
stop comparing murphy to walker you moron….murphy played multiple positions, and it just so happens that 1b and 3b which were glaring issues with the mets, had issues all year long…you are totally discounting murphy’s value to the mets…but look hey the mets overpay in an QO to walker for 18 mil, after having back surgery.
Be Zobrist huh? interesting
Excuse: it’s Christmas day.
Coming back a day later, I can’t believe you guys posted so much on Christmas day – take a break!! You guys do an awesome job and I love reading your articles. Take a break! Err, I hope you were able to take one – either way, have a Happy Holidays and thank you, MLBTR team!
It’s everyone’s Christmas dream to be Zobrist
It should be a new marketing campaign tbh
Come on Jeff! Be Zobrist?
Mets were dumb to let him go. Maybe other teams had no reason to be high on him, but the Mets – the team that employed him for years and also employed the coach that fixed him -should have known, period.
Agree with you 100%..They never had any interest/intention to resign him. Too much $$$$.
Also who is Neal Walker? Pretty sure his name is Neil Walker.
Neal Huntington has forever ruined my spelling of Neil Walker.
I don’t get why everyone feels it’s necessary to correct every small mistake you make.
“Everyone”?
I’m happy for Murphy. Great guy who had the batting skills, just not second base fielding skills. Walker had a solid season for the Mets.
I’d put a lot of money on him regressing big time this coming season.
The big dough you made at Walmart this year?
Come on, overratedsandy. Quit the butt-hurt trolling and give your mom her phone back. It’s completely unnecessary and very not cool to rip someone because they don’t worship the same player you do.
Have you read his Hostile Comments to me? Or did I offend you because you enjoy cleaning the stalls at Walmarts also?
Some moves are hits. Some are misses. Same goes for “non moves”. Nobody saw Murph putting up these numbers. Stop pretending you did.
And in case you missed it because you’ve been too busy bashing Sandy Anderson for faults that most likely belong to the Wilpons…the guy completely rebuilt the Mets from cell dwellers to contenders in about three years. Go away.
Wrongo…Omar Rebuilt the Mets..Most of the players Sandy used came from Omar’s picks.. I dont plan on going anywhere, Joe, ok?.
It’s not everyone else, it’s you overratedsandy
Sorry, didn’t realize Minaya added Wheeler, Syndy, TDA, Grandy, Cespedes, Reed, Conforto, Lugo, Gsellman, Reed and so many more while not employed by the Mets.
Overstatedsandy … cry me a river … oh boo hoo … the Mets did not resign a player you want to make love to … oh maybe mommy will make you some cookies to make you feel better.
Hostile comments to you? All you do here is put negative comments about someone who is forced to use a small budget because of his owners.
You can’t “overrate” someone who no one calls amazing either. No one has ever said he’s an amazing GM or praised him. He’s been very solid for the Mets so far and oh yeah, they’ve made the playoffs back to back years under him.
Some other franchises have it A LOT worse than the Mets do with Alderson. Try being a fan of some of other team, like San Diego or Arizona.
And if you think my comments are “hostile”, then do what jonnyblah said and get off your mom’s phone. Nice try being funny with the Walmart comment.
You’re not even qualified to clean the stalls at Walmart. Omar did draft and sign Degrom, Harvey, Matz,and Lugo and most of the others you see in the lineup. Right me after your night shift at Walmart ends, Joe.
You are hostile to me because I dont like the GM or ownership? Bwaaa, get over it, Donald, it’s called America and I have an opinion you dont like. TFB.
What toilet bowl did you crawl out of?
Everybody’s “hostile” to you because they don’t like how you’re a one trick pony. And your one trick is being an annoying troll.
When your comebacks are about cleaning toilet bowls at Walmart’s, it’s pretty obvious you’re out of BS to spew to us. Your game isn’t funny, go root for another franchise is you really hate Sandy Alderson (the guy who is currently trying to beat cancer) that much. You’re why people hate Mets fans.
overrated and eventually:
Would you guys please take it outside? Not everyone wants to read your incessant squabbling.
I imagine some degree of regression is inevitable, but if it’s just closer to the mean for him, he’ll still be good.
As a Nats fan, I’m thrilled with Murphy. Look for him to take over first when Zimmerman stops hitting or has his annual injury.
As a Red Sox fan who also closely follows both the Mets and the Nats, I always thought Murphy was a good hitter, but miscast as a 2b. In the 14-15 offseason, there was some suggestion that he might be available entering the final year of his contract, and I was hoping the Sox would deal for him to play third. Alas, they signed Pablo instead. I think the Mets thought they’d get similar production from Walker while also picking up a draft pick, but it seems they really just outsmarted themselves, with the Nats being the happy beneficiaries. While some regression at the plate is likely, I think the Nats are likely to use him more at 1b this year, where he may have some value defensively, rather than being a liability. I have to believe that Sandy would take a do-over on this one if given the chance. I sometimes feel that Sandy runs the Mets like he’s still with the A’s, but perhaps that’s more on the Wilpons than him.
the amount of bitter burnt mets fans is incredible…
lets get this straight…it was a failure not to even want to consider resigning murphy…
what is exceeding blindsided is how the mets thought that wright would be healthy enough for a full 160 something game season…that was absolutely foolish. bring in walker thats good, but walker with murphy would have been amazing.
oh yeah and reyes was a drop of luck from the heavens…
all those idiot mets fans clamoring about granderson being a good clubhouse guy and how he’s worth that 15 mil being 36 and all, and conveniently neglect the fact that Murphy was as much if not more of a presence as a MET, not a mercenary like granderson.