Mike Piellucci of VICE Sports spoke to Cubs GM Jed Hoyer and former Padres GM Josh Byrnes (now a senior VP with the Dodgers) about the 2011 trade that sent Anthony Rizzo and minor league pitcher Zach Cates from San Diego in exchange for right-hander Andrew Cashner and minor league outfielder Kyung-Min Na. Hoyer explains to Piellucci that his immediate thought upon hearing that the Padres had acquired Yonder Alonso (then one of the game’s top overall prospects) from the Reds was that Rizzo could be available. Hoyer expected significant competition, but Byrnes tells Piellucci that there wasn’t an aggressive market for Rizzo following his 2011 debut, during which he batted just .141/.281/.242. Per Byrnes, the Padres felt that Rizzo’s best assets could be dampened by the pitcher-friendly Petco Park. Cashner was an appealing young arm himself at the time and pitched quite well in 2013-14 for San Diego (2.87 ERA in 298 1/3 innings), but his injuries and inconsistencies went on to make the swap one of the most lopsided-looking trades in recent history, even if one can see the reasoning behind it. As Piellucci notes, the potential for one team to come away looking especially bad is why prospect-for-prospect “challenge” trades of this nature happen so rarely. I’d highly recommend reading the column in its entirety, even for non-Cubs and non-Padres fans.
A few more notes from around the league…
- The Red Sox lack sufficient depth to safeguard them from injuries to their position players, opines WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. While jack of all trades Brock Holt can serve as a safety net at a number of positions, he’s not exactly an offensive force. Beyond him, the top outfield alternative following an injury would be Bryce Brentz, who hasn’t excelled at Triple-A or in the Majors. Sam Travis represents an option for some power at first base/DH if needed, but he’s coming off a torn ACL. Elsewhere in the infield, Marco Hernandez and Deven Marrero both represent largely unproven options. Beyond those names, Boston’s top alternatives might be Rusney Castillo and Allen Craig, neither of whom has had any recent success, even in the minor leagues. Bradford notes that the Red Sox are still monitoring the free-agent market and adds Adam Rosales’ name to the previously reported Trevor Plouffe as depth options. Certainly, Boston has options in Brentz, Hernandez, Marrero, etc., but I’d agree with Bradford’s general assessment that some additional depth to beef up the bench would be in the club’s best interest.
- Though Marlins president of baseball ops Michael Hill recently suggested that adding a right-handed platoon option for Justin Bour at first base isn’t a priority, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes that the team is still likely to add such a player. Miami isn’t closed off to the idea of re-signing Chris Johnson despite the veteran’s struggles in 2016, he notes. They’ve also checked in on some bigger fish (terrible pun intended — my apologies) like Mike Napoli, but that type of move isn’t considered likely, and Miami is not pursuing Napoli at this time. (Napoli is instead reportedly working on a two-year deal with the Rangers.) Bour will get some more looks against lefties this year, but he hasn’t hit them at all in his brief MLB chances (110 plate appearances, .221/.273/.291 slash, zero homers). Jackson notes that J.T. Realmuto will see some time at first base in 2017 on days when A.J. Ellis starts behind the plate (presumably against lefties). From my vantage point, both Adam Rosales and Trevor Plouffe make quite a bit of sense for the Marlins in that capacity.
- The Orioles are maintaining interest in free agent outfielders Michael Saunders, Rajai Davis, Angel Pagan and Michael Bourn, writes MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko. Among internal candidates, Dariel Alvarez is a candidate to get one last chance to convince the O’s he can be a productive Major Leaguer, but he’s also a candidate to come off the 40-man roster should the Orioles sign someone from outside the organization, Kubatko adds. Alvarez hit .288/.324/.384 with four homers in 560 plate appearances as a 27-year-old at Triple-A this past season but has had a strong showing in the Venezuelan Winter League. Signed out of Cuba back in 2013, Alvarez has an underwhelming .725 OPS in parts of three Triple-A seasons, though Kubatko notes that the Orioles continue to be intrigued by his “plus-plus arm.”
As a Padres fan there was a lot of hype surrounding Rizzo when he was called up, more so than I can remember in previous years about anybody else. Still don’t like how Hoyer and co. bailed on a small market team like the Padres then traded for a guy who he admitted he called up too early. Casey Kelly was the big part of that Red Sox AGon trade and that never panned out. Byrnes gave up on Rizzo way too early. Many didn’t like the trade then, and its only gotten worse over the years. Guess the trade can really be blamed on Yonder Alonso becoming one of the worst 1B ever who can never hit more than 10 hr. Shame knowing guys like Kluber, Rizzo could’ve been Padres.
Nope. That trade can be blamed on one person alone. And that person is Josh Byrnes for giving up on Rizzo too early.
Guess I’m still trying to find someone else to blame besides the obvious. That trade and Matt Holliday never touching home in 2007 are scarred in I believe most Padres fans memories
To be fair, I don’t think Rizzo produces as much in SD if he stays (and Cashner probably isn’t as good 2013-2014 had he been a Cub). As an A’s fan I know we get ripped in the Matt Holliday for CarGo and others, but there’s no way CarGo has that career in Oakland. Getting traded to Colorado was the best thing ever for CarGo. Both bad trades but not to the extent people make it out to be.
Treat Turner though… ouch.
Rizzo would have been an All Star no matter who he played for. Including the Padres.
But josh Byrnes said his swing is too long!!
Are you joshing me?
Cashner: big hat, no cattle.
Ugh!
I think Rizzo would have still ended up being fine had he not been traded. I remember reading somewhere that a lot of the home runs that he has hit in wrigley would have still been home runs in Petco park, especially now that they have moved in the fences a little bit. Overall, I’m just glad Josh Byrnes got fired over making stupid decisions like this.
The Padres weren’t very good. There’s no really reason to keep a guy down in the minors. The cubs before Epstein hoyer were well known for calling up guys only to rarely start them. A perfect example was Jake Fox. He was miles better than derek Lee they had no choice play Lee refused to be traded or benched.
Josh vitters was another one. They played valbuena over him. Luckily they got Fowler for him. Valbuena was awful for the cubs
Didn’t the Pads have Trea Turner?
Yep. They dealt him and Joe Ross when they got Wil Myers.
You are right about Kelly, he was ranked like Espinoza or Kopech before he hurt his arm.
Red Sox fans were upset about losing Kelly not Rizzo.
I don’t remember Red Sox fans being upset at all; I sure wasn’t! Getting Adrian Gonzalez, who at the time was one of most valuable hitters in baseball, was very exciting. Everyone knew that Kelly and Rizzo were top prospects but didn’t care because the return was a potential MVP…obviously Rizzo became Gonzalez-esque for far cheaper; Cubs fleeced Padres who have dealt away several very good players (Kluber, Turner, Grandal, Ross, etc.)
“Still don’t like how Hoyer and co. bailed on a small market team like the Padres”…
“Bailed” you say? … And why would Hoyer want to stay in SD? He was offered a much better deal with an opportunity to advance in his profession, and make some history. That’s not ‘bailing”. That’s looking at the bigger picture, and being smart.
SD should look to the Royals and Indians as models of success.
Small-market teams and fans shouldn’t complain when they practice small thinking.
You seem to be offended for no reason other than being a cubs fan and thinking I was saying something offensive when it was just facts.
Hoyer was hired by Padres on 10/24/2009. He joined Cubs front office 10/26/2011. That is an extremely short time for a GM to lay any type of foundation. In fact it is impossible to build and see progress which is why 2 years in an organization for a GM can be classified as bailing. Plans for smaller market teams take at the very least 4 years before results are seen.
Yes, Hoyer and McLeod didn’t owe SD anything, but the truth is they left before anything could have been seen thru in SD.
And fans have every right to complain about their teams, small market or large market, that should go without saying.
Sorry, but I took no offense. You and I disagree on what “bailing” is. Sounded like sour grapes to me.
And complain all you want about your team. You should! Its own leaders’ ineptitude is the culprit — as it was with the Cubs for many years.
Also sorry the Pads’ FO has lost good talent. But you can’t fault good people for escaping the mess there for greener confines.
(A mess caused greatly by small-time FO attitudes and approaches, not market size.)
Hoyer will and gets no credit for Cubs success shadowed by Theo. Whenever Padres get off mat and win WS that GM will be toast of baseball
If I remember correctly, the Padres were in the midst of being sold when Hoyer left. He wasn’t exactly an established GM, and a lot of times a new ownership group cleans house. Hoyer leaving was more of a parachute because he saw the writing on the wall.
Or he saw a better opportunity and took it…
SD could have simply blocked Hoyer’s exit. He was under contract. Hoyer was basically traded for a PTBNL. (though the internet seems to have no information on who that was exactly.)
The Cubs really weren’t a better “opportunity.” They were an aging team with no farm system. And Even though the titles were the same, he’s really the number two in Chicago behind Epstein whereas he was the top guy in SD. The move was about job security.
You really want to claim that a job with the Cubs + Theo wasn’t a better opportunity than a job with the Padres?
Come on. Everyone knew what the Cubs were trying to do when they brought in Theo. It was the beginning of a full rebuild. The aging roster and poor farm system didn’t make a difference. It was a chance to become the GM (even if just in title) and work with Theo for one of the most storied franchises in the MLB rather than stay with crappy San Diego. The choose couldn’t be any easier.
Lol. No one outside of San Diego cares about the Padres
He already was a GM, genius.
Yeah that whole selling period was pretty awkward, and the guy moores was going to sell the team to (His name escapes me right now) basically wanted to buy them on layaway. I could see why Hoyer would want to leave such a potentially toxic environment.
It will be the mariners vs Padres ws haha.
Or the mariners vs the other team that has never won a pennant. Forgot who. Padres won the pennant twice. Mariners never made it out the alcs.
Wow that would be an awful ws
Priggs89
Woah woah woah,
What in any realm of existence makes you say whether a team is a crappy franchise? If that were the case then the Cubs would have been the crappiest franchise in mlb history considering their last WS title and the Padres inception in 69.
He had the chance to take on a job with a franchise in a big market instead of build one himself. He went to his go to in Epstein and gave up on a franchise which he could have become an Epstein. Hoyer is the definition of bailing. Whatever argument you can concoct you are wrong. He bailed for a large market team cuz he couldn’t make it in a small market by himself. He went for comfort over everything. All of you with a large market franchise, crap on lower level teams, and that is sad. As a MLB fan i love all teams, but to know this sort of disgusting egotistic realism is so rampant makes me pity you. So to you, realize there are more teams than the Yankees Cubs and Red Sox. Otherwise you might as well abandon this sport because you don’t care about anything other than large markets. I pity you and have nothing left to say to a piece of crap who thinks themselves above others. Best of luck in life. You’re going to need every ounce of it.
On behalf of all the rest of us Padres fans, please learn facts before spouting your next round of opinions. kthanx.
Your revisionist history of what happened with Hoyer in San Diego explains why you don’t understand what happened. He did not bail. The CEO (Moorad) hired Josh Byrnes ostensibly as an assistant to Hoyer, but allowed his former employee from Arizona a direct channel to himself without going through Hoyer.
When the Cubs first contacted the Padres with an interview request, it was to talk to Byrnes. Moorad declined to give permission, but said they could talk to Hoyer. Understandably uncomfortable with the situation, Hoyer went to Moorad (before agreeing to talk to Theo) and asked for a contract extension and clarity about his role vis-a-vis Byrnes. He was told no on both fronts and only then did he talk to Theo.
He did not bail. He saved himself the trouble of dangling in the wind while his idiot boss and lackey “assistant” plotted his demise. As a Padres fan, there are several characters who deserve your wrath and indignation in Hoyer’s departure, but none of them are currently employed by the Cubs.
Your revisionist history of what happened with Hoyer in San Diego explains why you don’t understand what happened. He did not bail. The CEO (Moorad) hired Josh Byrnes ostensibly as an assistant to Hoyer, but allowed his former employee from Arizona a direct channel to himself without going through Hoyer.
When the Cubs first contacted the Padres with an interview request, it was to talk to Byrnes. Moorad declined to give permission, but said they could talk to Hoyer. Understandably uncomfortable with the situation, Hoyer went to Moorad (before agreeing to talk to Theo) and asked for a contract extension and clarity about his role vis-a-vis Byrnes. He was told no on both fronts and only then did he talk to Theo.
He did not bail. He saved himself the trouble of dangling in the wind while his soon-to-be-voted-out-of-baseball boss and lackey “assistant” plotted his demise. As a Padres fan, there are several characters who deserve your wrath and indignation in Hoyer’s departure, but none of them are currently employed by the Cubs.
Thanks for that explanation, as I remember it being sort of an awkward exit, but I didn’t have the context to understand why.
Great summary of the facts there. Many thanks.
More of the Padres shooting themselves in the foot. Sad franchise.
The problem for the Red Sox if they think about adding either Craig or Castillo is that adding them to the 40 man roster brings the Red Sox very close to the tax threshold for 2017. Currently they do NOT count against the tax threshold adding one or both of them at any point adds their AAV to the Sox payroll tax threshold figure. Something they were/are obviously trying to avoid when they traded Buchholz for nothing but salary relief.
I thought both Castillio and Craig were gone? I could have swore the red sox released Castillo and ate his earnings.
Nope.
Yeah Castillo was dropped off the 40 man roster is what your remembering
I thought that too when it happened. The Cubs, for all practical purposes, acquired high level defecting spies from other organizations. I expected even more trades between the Cubs and SD.
Shpies? Da. Meester Beeg, Boris Badanoff and Natasha vere first vons hired by Meester Reeketts.
Arrieta, Rizzo, Baez, Gendricks, Rossell all be Russians.
Castillo’s 10.5 MM for 2017 would be pro rata for his days on the 25 man roster if they need him. He can be then be outrighted off the 40 man roster when sent down. Because he does not have 5 yrs MLB time. his only choice is to accept the minor league assignment or forfeit the rest of the $$$. Obviously no one would ever claim that contract and he won’t give it up. This allows the Sox to use him as depth and only have a small amount of the $$$ count against the Lux. tax. With the Bucholtz trade they can make this type of move or add an over priced vet for 2 months at the trade deadline if needed and stay under the Lux tax. The Boston beat writers do not understand how the tax is calculated and the difference between players like Rusney who do not have 5 yrs and players like A Rod, or Carl Crawford who can only be released by paying them the $$$ and having it count against the Tax. They also never mention that the Sox are being assessed $800,000 for Hanigan, $857,000 each for Crawford & A Gon. The 1.9 MM per yr deferred money they owe Manny for many yrs doesn’t count as it was counted as part of the AAV during the term of the contract. By trading Bucholtz rather than releasing him DD saved the Sox $500,000 buy out that would have counted against the tax.
Not sure the rizzo for Cashner can really be criticized ‘at the time’ the deal was made. Even for the 1st 2 years, many would argue that the Padres got the better end of the deal
In hindsight, of course it looks silly now, but such is the risk with any young pitcher …
Interesting that Theo/Jed’s ‘hitters first’ rebuild approach was so novel just 3-5 years ago …
Yes at the time. Byrnes totally gave up on Rizzo after he didn’t produce in his first Major League callup at the age of 22. Not like he’s the first or the last All Star to ever do that.
Thought it back then, and still think it now, Cashner should be a reliever.
Cashner actually was a reliever for the Cubs initially
They brought him up and stuck him in the pen. Then the season after he was in the rotation. About 2-3 starts in, hurt his shoulder, and they brought him back as a reliever. Has the stuff for relief, Kerry Wood esq
cashner originally was a reliever with the Padres, but he fought to be a starter and they gave him the opportunity. He probably could have developed into a solid closer.
The Sox have Swihart with an option. He gives them depth at C, DH, & OF. Marco Hernandez is IF depth & Marrero defensive SS, Brentz will have to be traded as he is out of options that is why they signed Jr Lake. Hopefully they will find an OF with options left that they can get for Brentz or Elias (also out of options).
Other depth off the bench in Boston is Jeff Rutledge .. re acquired in the rule 5 draft .. he was getting platooned at third with Shaw last year til he went down hurt
Rutledge will have to be on the 25 man roster or the DL all yr or they lose him. The topic was AAA depth.
As will Plouffe, or Rosales who were in the article and don’t have options either?
yeah i’m not sure exactly how much depth that article wants the sox to have. three proven starters at every position? who has that? the sox have CB young as a really solid fourth OF who was awesome when pressed into full-time duty last year until he got hurt himself. then holt can play all over the field. they have three catchers, including swihart who can also play OF. marco hernandez has generally been downplayed because he has almost no shot to break through into a starting role on a team with pedroia / bogaerts, but he’s been a pretty solid little player in the minors. sam travis is right there as an extra corner bat. did they have more bodies when they still had moncada and shaw? sure, but… like… sometimes you make trades
I’m surprised more teams haven’t focused on position players for the rebuild. Their attrition rate is much better than pitching prospects.
That’s why teams want two or three young pitchers hoping that in numbers they hit on one.
Yeah, which is why it doesn’t make a lot of sense
Two thoughts:
1) Pitching and defense is a more sustainable long term solution to yearly competitiveness than trying to out-score everyone.
2) Seems wise to draft pitchers early as their appeal wont greatly diminish until they reach the upper minors and still havent figured things out as opposed to drafting great hitters who can stall out at the high A or AA level if their issues are still pronounced.
pitching is sustainable? based on what? Pitchers get hurt like crazy. See the NY Mets young rotation for an example of this. Your window is a lot shorter when you build around pitchers. To your second point, do you have any support for this? Again, pitchers get hurt like crazy and have a much higher rate of failure than do position prospects.
Look at the tables of war based on prospect ranking for pitchers vs. hitters. You’ll notice that the pitchers are lower than the hitters of the same ranking.
To the first point, it is my belief that pitching and defense is more sustainable as a long term plan to be successful than loading up on offense simply because as a team its far more likely that you’ll win 100 games by only allowing 2-3 runs a game as opposed to scoring 6-7 runs per game. Yes you need 2 or 3 top pitching prospects for every top hitter you have in the system due to attrition rate of pitchers but that doesnt change the fact that you cant win games if you cant get people out. See the entire history of the colorado rockies organization as an example.
To the second point, current top pitching prospects lucas giolito and tyler glasnow both have significant hurdles to overcome to reach their top potential but since they could blow away batters the whole way up the minor league hierarchy without having to truly address their inefficiencies, they are both still very highly regarded. Still to this day andrew cashner is getting ten million a year! Yet players like ben grieve, lastings milledge, brandon wood and shawn abner get passed around for less and less until they fade into obscurity. Most likely to follow that path among current top hitting prospects, in my opinion, is joey gallo.
The biggest issue is that pitching prospects are much more likely to break down. Your cherry-picked offensive prospects who didn’t pan out, one of whom was drafted 30+ years ago, doesn’t really prove anything. The Cubs developed around position prospects – Russell, Baez, Bryant, Contreras, Rizzo, Soler – then augmented by buying established pitching- guys past the injury nexus that claims most young pitching.
Lackey was a durable veteran, Arrieta was a reclamation project who they got for nothing, Lester has been a workhorse for his whole career, Hendricks, as a finesse pitcher, has a lower injury risk. They didn’t develop any of those guys, but they targeted the right pitchers to surround the offensive core. Offense ages better. And as far as defense goes, the Cubs are a tremendous team defensively.
Asset management is the MOST sustainable approach, whether it’s with pitchers or hitters. You get great assets with great scouting and great organizational development. Then you use your assets to hone the roster.
In short, cf. Theo/Jed.
ding
The greatest ability in all sports is availability. The reason drafting and developing hitters is a more effective strategy is because of injury risk. The rate in which pitchers get injured is 5 times the rate the average hitter does. Not sure of the percentage of pitchers currently in the majors that have had Tommy John surgery but I would guess it’s higher than 50%. While the percentage of position players that have had season long injuries is far less. Throw that in with the hit rate on pitching prospects and you can see why drafting hitters is the safer play. Also the free agent market is a prime example of which strategy is wiser. Pitching always cost a premium because it’s so much harder to draft and develop pitching while top hitters typically make less.
“Also the free agent market is a prime example of which strategy is wiser. Pitching always cost a premium because it’s so much harder to draft and develop pitching while top hitters typically make less.”
Which is exactly why a giant-market team like the Cubs can be successful with their hitters-first method. They can easily afford to pay that premium for pitching once they have all their hitters in place. Heck, even if Lester got hurt or pitched like garbage after he signed, they’d be able to afford to bring somebody else in to replace him.
Nats traded gio cuz they soured on him because he WASN”T blowing away hitters. For a guy who was supposed to have 2 nearly 70 pitches, he really didn’t have the k numbers he should have. Andrew Cashner and those hitters you mentioned are not prospects so they don’t support your argument.
Never said you need to be. I said teams like that can easily afford it, which makes it a lot easier to hand out contracts like that.
The Diamondbacks are a perfect example. If Greinke doesn’t live up to his contract, they’re completely screwed and have to bend over backwards to work around it. Heck, there was even talk of them eating money on it to move him and not have to pay the full amount. Teams like that have to be pretty much perfect on these signings, or it’ll criple them for years.
It’s the same thing with these giant international signings. Sure, everyone can afford to sign a Rusney Castillo. But when he doesn’t pan out, it’s just a sunk cost for the Red Sox and they can continue on like nothing happened. That’d be a HUGE hit for a smaller market…
The Diamondbacks said that was absolutely not the case (eating money to move him). Not sure why you are trying to use a rumor that was pretty clearly shot down to bolster your point.
The Cubs will have lots of money, but at the time of signing Lester they were not free to spend. They were still restricted to what they could spend due to their debt structure from the time of purchase, so if Lester had turned out bad or they hadn’t been as successful as they were, they would have actually been kinda screwed.
What does Rusney Castillo have to do with building a team through hitting v. pitching? Now you are just changing the argument to high revenue v. non-high revenue teams?
I guess you can choose to believe everything the front office says if you want. I mean, why wouldn’t they come out and say they were trying to move his contract while he’s still with the team?
Will Jimmyz that is about the opposite of what Theo and his crew thought
Thats cuz they have the money to get a proven, established high quality pitcher at will in free agency.
More importantly though, their scouts nailed it on who to target and acquire. Kudos to them but pitching will always be a more valuable commodity simply because starting pitchers have an impact on more than just three or four at bats a game.
True … theo’s thinking was that there was ‘enough’ opportunity to buy pitching using the $ he had at his disposal …
Also true the Theo-Jed-Jarod hit at an unreal rate with their young hitters …
That “unreal rate” was the result of great scouting and player development by the Cubs.
This is a HUGE part that continuously gets overlooked. It’s a lot easier to “build around hitters” when you can afford to buy the best pitching available… The majority of teams can’t take that approach and expect the same results.
Pitching is valuable because it is so hard to find one that is actually a torp who isn’t a constant injury risk
Because filling out a roster with position players is super cheap too? You’re a sox fan, you should know first hand how difficult it is to put any type of competent lineup together via free agency with out spending infinity dollars.
You’re right, I am a Sox fan. And I know that it’s a lot easier to find and win with competent, albeit not star, hitters than it is to do with mediocre pitchers.
Trust me, it’s not as hard as the White Sox made it look. A competent front office would’ve been able to put a winning team around Sale and Quintana.
Very true.. the Cubs have been ‘drafting high’ for 50 years and couldn’t select or develop young talent for squat …
Jason McLeod, jaron Madison (now with the twins(?)) and the coaches did the hard work in identifying and coordinating development plans (physical, mental, academic, mechanics…) for all the players in the system ..
Not enough credit goes to the guys in the trenches
What, pitchers never “stall out” in the minors?
Methinks you have it all backwards.
Poor Padres can’t catch a break.
If the Red Sox want to bring in depth have it be through minor league signings and keep them there until needed or if they can win the job out of spring training
Honestly, the fear that his bat wouldn’t play well at petco actually was warranted. As a padre and cub he’s got like a batting average around even below .200, less than 5 home runs, and not an overall great line in about 125+ at bats or so. I’d have to get the link to look at exactly his production at petco but he just doesn’t produce at petco.
He wouldn’t be the hitter he is had he stayed with the Padres. Alonso was awful but in it now becomes Anderson Espinosa, Josh Naylor, Carter Capps, for Rizzo as cashner was dealt for Capps and Naylor and Alonso became pomeranz who became Espinoza.
EDIT here’s the link cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/players/situational…
That’s not true. If you look at a map of the home runs Rizzo has hit most of them would have gone out in any park. He would have been an All Star no matter what.
Actually- because of petcos marine layer that wanders in his would be home runs would be deep fly balls. So not every homerun he hit at on a chart would be a home run at petco.
The effects of the marine layer have been documented and studied- https://www.google.com/amp/www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/sdut-marine-layer-formidable–faraway-fences-2011jun01-story,amp.html?client=ms-android-sprint-us
Doubt he would of been an all star no matter what. A league average player minimum but not 100% an all star.
Pretty sure the maps account for that
Got a link to this treasure trove map? I don’t see how a map can account for all conditions on a given night when a home run is hit given wind speed and direction, humidity, temperature, and all conditions that effect a ball for every hitter at every ball park and be accurate as to where the ball winds up. Or how a map can say a ball hit at this speed and angle with such exit velocity would be a home run at petco given these atmosphereic conditions.
DC brought up a good point. The marine layer makes it difficult to hit home runs and a lot of would be home runs have been knocked down by the layer. I can hear Grant and his stupid voice talking about it just discussing it.
It’s called Google. Look it up.
Rizzo would have been an All Star no matter who he played for. Sure, playing half his games in Wrigley helps him but not that much.
In other words math&baseball no ryan doesnt have the map you are looking for. Pretty much every website out there has their own home run chart system. He’s just blowing smoke out of his butt to make himself appear smart, but he never backs it up. Altough, it is hilarious that he expexts you to find the exact map he uses, which is most likely just some crayon drawing ryan did in art class and took a picture of that you can find on google images.
Knowing ryan he will do 1 of 2 things. He will comment back with some bravado and still provide no link to the map or he won’t comment back.
Here’s a link to fangraphs spray chart for rizzo.
fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=3473&…
It doesnt take into account the atmospheric conditions it just shows you where the balls went. Had he played at petco those homeruns towards left and center wouldnt have all been homeruns which knocks his production down by 12 14 homeruns hitting them that way at petco. The ones toward the short porch in right would have still been home runs.
And to put an end to ryans silly narrative heres what we know
This is rizzos homerun chart based on distance.
hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2016_416&t…
This is petco park dimensions
sandiego.padres.mlb.com/sd/ballpark/history.jsp
12 of his homeruns were less than 400ft which at petco the right field is 382. Given the marine layer some of those barely over 400 may have been knocked down to also be just deep fly balls.
My had right center is 392 and right 322 which only knocks out 10 homeruns. But he would of played a couple years before fences were moved in. ballparksofbaseball.com/ballparks/petco-park/
Long story short- rizzo wouldnt be a bona-fide all star and he wouldnt be the same hitter he is if he played half his games at petco.
Yes he would be an All Star in PETCO. I know you’re upset about the trade and you have the right to be, but you can stop lying to try to make yourself feel better.
Long story short, the Padres would have won more games in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016 if they hadn’t made that trade. That is the only reason they need to not make it.
I never said playing half his games in Wrigley didn’t help him.. Just that going from PETCO to Wrigley is not the difference between being a perennial All Star and being a bust.
Does Dad let you drive slow on the driveway on Saturday?
He would still easily hit 20+ home runs a season in PETCO. He also gets on base a ton (isn’t an all or nothing hitter), plays great defense and is a leader in the clubhouse. Sounds like an All Star to me. Byrnes blew it on that trade. Blame no one else.
LOL youve used the drive way comeback way too much. That the best you got simpleton?BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
Literally- gave you links to back up what I am saying and ryan goes “those links dont exist youre lying!” LOL typical response from someone with seriously inadequate feelings about their intelligence and self esteem. Dont worry Ryan I wont pick on you, much.
Rizzo wouldn’t have been an all star. You know why? Because the all star game is based off popularity not production. He wouldnt be an all star with the padres unless he produced above what he has with the cubs- which wouldn’t happen- except for 2016 as a pity vote for the home team hosting the game. He wasnt an all star til 2014 when the team around him got better and the cubs showed signs of life. On the padres hed be a barely above average hitter given the talent on the roster from 2011-2016 and would see his avg obp and slg decrease at least .10-.25 pts each.
As far as the trade goes. Padres could have easily won this trade or kept it close had they kept cashner as a reliever. He could have easily developed into a dominant set up man if not a dominant closer and given the premium on those in the market padres had a chance to cash in on that like they did kimbrel and as other teams have. But, they made him a starter and it lasted a while and then he crapped out. Switching to relieving could of saved cashners career like it did miller smoltz and others through the years- latroy hawkins. I dont think the padres made a bad trade tbh they just didnt maximize cashner as they should have. Plus, look at what relievers are being paid. Chapman jansen melancon. If he was smart hed consider being a reliever going forward.
Where did I ever say the links you posted don’t exist? Show me where. And how are my lack of intelligence or self esteem showing? You don’t know me kid. And lol at you trying to “pick on me” hahahahaha.
If Wil Myers could make the All Star game as a Padre, so could Rizzo. Myers didn’t even have an OPS above .800 on the season for 2016. 2014 was the year Rizzo finally broke out and the Cubs were still bad that year but he made the ASG anyway. If he can make it with one bad team, playing for the Padres won’t change that. Even if his BA and OBP dropped by .25 from where they are now (which is a stretch to be honest) he would still be a well above average hitter and if he did make the All Star game with those stats it wouldn’t be a laughing matter.
The whole “convert him to a reliever and he’ll suddenly be lights out” thing would make more sense if Cashner was only good for one inning or one time through time lineup. But if you watch the game you’ll see that when he gets hit, he gets hit right out of the gate. Either way, trading an All Star franchise first baseman for a reliever is never a good idea and if you think it is that tells us all we need to know about you.
You keep coming back and getting smacked back down with facts DeadlestCatch. That’s three arguments you’ve failed at miserably so far and I’m sure there will be more to come. Stop crying because I’ve embarrassed you. Here’s your pacifier.
That is absurd. 125 at bats and you claim oh well he cannot produce in Petco? Whatever lets you sleep at night.
By the way go to Petco when the Cubs are in town next year and watch what Rizzo does
As a padre and cub here is what rizzo has done
2016- 4-10
2015- 1-11
2014- 2-13
2013- 4-14
2012- 1-12
2011- 9-52
Thats 21 for 112 at petco with 32 strike outs. Hes literally got more strike outs than hits at petco. 21 for 112 with 32 ks gets you demoted immediately.
Your stats are definitely the only deciding point. Obviously that Rizzo guy is a bum and all Padres’ fans should be glad he’s not warming the pine in SD.
Sample size
125 at-bats isn’t enough of a sample to prove anything. Especially now that Petco plays more neutral, Rizzo would thrive playing half his games there. Certainly, he might be a different kind of player – a doubles machine who walks, plays great defense and chips in 20 homers or so a season. If the Padres had kept Rizzo they may not have traded Turner and Ross for Myers (although the Padres didn’t trade for Myers with the idea of him being a first baseman – he forced their hand by being a terrible defensive outfielder).
About 50% of those Petco AB’s were in a Padre uniform, when he was 21 and struggling to adjust.
He hit .400 at Petco last year.
To be fair, The Padres fleeced the Reds in the initial 4 for 1 trade at the time & still today at this moment. Latos for Volquez, Alonso, Grandal & Boxberger seems unreal.
A starter in Latos who is settling for Milb contracts at this point in his career for:
A guy in Volquez who got paid handsomely in a bad market but never the less still did.
Grandal who made an All-Star team and is a solid contributor on a really good team.
Boxberger made an All-Star team as a closer in the best offensive division in baseball.
& lastly, Alonso has been mediocre at best so far in his major league career but has at least been able to play above average defense and can hit for a decent average with no pop, ala James Loney 2.0
So even though the Rizzo trade was an utter mishandling of what could have been a cornerstone player in San Diego, I see the thought process at the time. Coulda, Shoulda, Woulda.
I’d have to disagree a bit. Volquez was terrible for the Padres. Grandal is one of the best catchers in baseball but the Padres dealt him to the Dodgers so they could flush 50 million dollars down the toilet. Boxberger had one very good year but has regressed badly. Alonso was bad and is still bad, but at least he returned some possible prospect value. Latos was okay for the Reds and is still at least young enough to maybe rebound, although I doubt he does. It’s not as cut-and-dried as you make it out to be.
Not sure the Padres got the better end of the trade to this day. Latos was very good with the Reds and then was traded for Anthony DeSclafani, who is looking solid so far as well.
Agreed, Latos had 9.6 fWAR over 3 years, that’s about the prospect package a player that good gets, hardly “seems unreal” – the Shelby Miller trade is what still seems unreal. The Latos trades aren’t even in the same galaxy as that one.
I don’t think the Reds got fleeced whatsoever. I guess its all a matter of opinion though. Go back and take a look at Latos stint with Cincy, especially during the spells of injury with Johnny Cueto. Latos was a number 2 who pitched like a number one.
Alonso certainly seemed like the biggest loss at the time. He was hailed as a future slugger. But was blocked by JV. Boxberger wasnt much of a known commodity at the time and the Reds already had a pretty good bullpen. Crazy Eddie Volquez was toast in Cincinnati and bounced around soon thereafter. Grandal has turned into a solid player, but the Reds valued Mesoraco more. The Reds dealt from depth with that trade to get something they desperately needed at that time, a young controllable starter in Latos. It got them to the playoffs a few times. Cant say I think theyd have made it without his contributions.
That’s not true. All the guys the Reds gave up in that trade were expendable and Latos was exactly what the Reds were hoping he would be and more for three years and then a year before his free agency they traded him for more prospects.
The Padres should fold for being the most incompetently run franchise in baseball history.
Or get Theo to leave the Cubs to save them from their historical run of mediocrity. .
That’s why Preller is trying to do right now. I’d say there are other franchises that are run much worse, like the Marlins, Angels, or Reds.
Preller to Theo is like Eric Hoffer to Aristotle.
Sox are fine; Any injury to 3B,SS,2B is Holt–which is why they’re looking at a guy like Plouffe. Good luck finding a proven veteran willing to play 3rd on the depth chart at any position–which is why they have your Rutledge/Hernandez/prospect fruit salad for middle infield depth. Benintendi starts in LF, Young is their 4th outfielder and DH/LF platoon. Holt is 5th, and Swihart is there if you assume Holt is relegated to 3rd when Pablo’s diaper gets too full or there’s an injury up the middle. Moreland at 1B just needs to hit .250 with some pop and play solid D. Hanley demonstrated a consistent 1B last year; Hanley at 1B and Young to DH if you wanna stack vs lefties. Intentionally flexible roster. Rusney Castillo is a true American hero.
Theo worked for Padres
He must have “bailed”.
It is crazy how fast Allen Craig fell off.
Watch out, Steve. Michael Lananna and Chris Crawford are gonna get testy if you try to grab their spots at the top of the bad pun baseball writers list!
Every team makes questionable trades, especially when they are in hindsight.
With that said though, the Padres took a chance and thought Cashner + Alonso + Grandal + Volquez + Boxberger would be better than Rizzo + Latos.
They were half right, but Alonso not panning out is the main reason the Rizzo trade looks so bad.
No. The Rizzo trade looks bad because of the strides Rizzo has made (after incorporating the changes suggested to him by Padres coaches) and the fact that Cashner hasn’t been able to stay healthy or effective for more than short bursts here and there.
Top 5 worst trades in San Diego Padres history:
1. Fred McGriff to ATL for Melvin Nieves, Donnie Elliot & Vince Moore.
2. John Kruk & Randy Ready to PHI for Chris James.
3. David Freese to STL for Jim Edmonds.
4. Yasmani Grandal, Joe Weiland & Zach Eflin to LAD for Matt Kemp + 82 million of contract & Tim Federowicz.
5. Anthony Rizzo to CHC for Andrew Cashner
* Honorable mention:
3-Team trade
Corey Kluber to CLE > Jake Westbrook to STL > & Ryan Ludwick to SD.
I agree with all these except Kluber didn’t have that nasty slider/slurve he has now. He wasn’t considered a prospect at the time. And Ludwick was considered a power bat, but boy was he terrible in San Diego.
1. You forgot the Myers trade.
2. The Kluber trade only looks bad in hindsight. It made perfect sense at the time.
Yea I forgot .210 average and 91 whiffs on road he’s Lou Gehrig
Both bad trades. Give back Trea Turner
The Marlins if they were trying for a RH 1B could sign Napoli, even if he wouldn’t really be a platoon I guess.
It was really only cashner for Rizzo. The other two are and never have been relevant in that trade. Both are probably out of baseball. Cubs basically stole Rizzo from Padres.