Peter Gammons (in his latest piece for his GammonsDaily.com website) looks back at five of the major storylines coming out of the Winter Meetings, including prices in the reliever market, teams dealing prospects and how the Red Sox have established a clear window to aim for at least one World Series title between now and the end of the decade. Gammons also includes a few hot stove tidbits about the Sox…
- Free agent slugger Jose Bautista “wanted to work something out” with the Red Sox but president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told Bautista’s agent that the Sox were out of payroll space. Boston has over $178.3MM committed to just 10 players on the 2017 roster, plus Rusney Castillo and Allen Craig. Adding Bautista on a notable salary would again put the Sox over the luxury tax threshold, putting the team in line for a sizeable penalty.
- Dombrowski “refused to talk about” Blake Swihart with several teams that were interested in the former top prospect. Swihart is coming off a tough 2016 campaign that included a demotion to Triple-A, a position switch from catcher to left field due to defensive issues and a severe ankle injury that ended his season in June. Still, since Swihart is just 24 and less than two years removed from being a consensus top-20 prospect in the game, it isn’t shocking that teams were looking to buy low, nor is it a surprise that Dombrowski wants to keep him in the fold.
- We’ve already heard about how the White Sox wanted Rafael Devers as part of the Chris Sale trade, and Gammons reports that Chicago also had interest in Andrew Benintendi as the deal’s starting point but Boston refused. Benintendi, another highly-touted prospect, made a strong MLB debut in 2016 and looks to start next year as the Red Sox starting left fielder.
- The Sale trade gives the Red Sox a rotation surplus, and the club isn’t likely to really explore dealing a starter until Spring Training, when the Sox have a better idea of what to expect from question marks like Swihart, Pablo Sandoval, Christian Vazquez or Sam Travis. Gammons also notes that the Sox could simply hang onto all of their starting pitching options as extra depth against the injuries that will almost inevitably occur during a season.
Trading Travis Shaw and signing Moreland didn’t make a whole lot of sense to me. They basically gave up all of Shaw’s years of control to a player exactly like him in Moreland, only with less versatility.
But Shaw got them a good RP, not like they gave him up for free
True, but Shaw wasn’t the only player they traded
Shaw was the main player. Douban is nice, but he is not a top prospect or anything. Red Sox got three years of a good RP who will go very nice with CK, Kelly, & and hopefully Smith.. RP cost is at an all time high, and Shaw pretty much disappeared in the 2nd half.. Moreland is the same player, but with more power and a better glove at 1st. We have Devers/Travis long term, plus Pablo still has three years. Really makes me sad that Joey Bats wants to play for Boston, but they can’t add him. Craig and Castillo really are hurting them.
I think Gammons got it wrong. I believe because Castillo and Craig are not on the 40 man roster their salary doesn’t count toward luxury tax.
overthemonster.com/2015/5/19/8625305/the-benefits-…
Correct but gammons was referring I believe to the overall cost of the team they aren’t in that 10 players that he was referring to.
Not sure if it works like that because I know A-Rod’s salary counts against the Yankees. You could be right about your part though.
Gammons rarely gets it right, unless it’s obvious or in this case, already commented on by others earlier.
Mb923 read the article the Yankees situation with a rod is different he was bought out.
Easy on insulting one of the greatest baseball writers of all time.
Really?
HOF for Gammons was earned.
His Red Sox homerism is grating.
Bingo! Lost me again on MLB when Sale trade was announced: “I was never really sold on Moncada” Gammons said.
Really?! Never mentioned that once in all the times you shrilled for him ….
You are correct. But If they were to be added to the 40 man for whatever reason then it would count towards the lux tax.
They are called a buried salary that counts towards the MLB payroll.
But not towards the Luxury Tax unless they are on the 40 man roster because as players with less than 5 yrs exp. they could not refuse the minor league assignment without giving up the $$$.
Exactly.
Gammons is so full of crap
Yes….Milwaukee GM Stearns made clear there would not be a trade without Shaw
Seems Shaw can’t do anything against LHP so they might have sold high on him with the vision of Devers stepping up within 2 seasons.
You are right. Shaw can’t hit lefties. He is a platoon bat. Not sure if you are referring to Devers as a first baseman or a third baseman but to make it clear, sandavol is under contract through 2019 with a club option for 2020. Sam Travis is the guy they envision at first long term. He could be up at some point this year if not then 2018 for sure. That is why Moreland is on a one year deal. Devers has only played third in the minors. He recently turned 20 years old. He is the guy they envision long term at third base, not first. His ETA for becoming a major league contributor at third every day, likely fits well with the end of Sandavol’s deal. In 2020, Devers will be in his age 23 season and Sandavol will likely no longer be on the team as his club option will be declined in the 2019-2020 off-season.
Well…Tyler Thornburg
Shaw basically had one great month at the beginning of last season and was basically useless for the rest of it. The reliever we got will be far more useful than what Shaw would give us, and Shaw’s value could easily be replaced.
Basically, they didn’t lose all that much versatility. Moreland is a gold glove first baseman who has spent time in left field and right in the majors. Shaw has spent time at first, third and left field. The only versatility they are forfeiting there is that Moreland can’t play third. However, Moreland is a significant upgrade defensively at first. Moreland won the gold glove last year. Also, Moreland is proven hitter against right handers. Shaw has spent two years in the league. One of them he looked like a potential all star and last year he looked like a platoon player. So who knows what Shaw actually is. Signing Moreland to a cheap one year deal makes plenty of sense. The other option would be signing a first baseman who is not as good defensively for much more money to a longer deal, blocking Sam Travis’ path to the majors.
Chris Young is a lefty masher. Hanley wasn’t bad last year at first defensively. Moreland is a gold glove first baseman who mashes righties and struggles against lefties. Signing Moreland makes sense because you can get Benintendi regular at bats in left, while still getting Young at bats. Here is how I bet it goes: VS RHP Moreland at first Hanley DH Young bench… VS LHP Hanley at first Young the DH Moreland on the bench.
Shaw is an unmotivated player and he isn’t good defensively while Moreland is. Pretty simple really, they improved the position while also bringing in an 8th inning pitcher.
Where did u get that from? Shaw is a pretty good defensive 3b and not shabby at 1st either and as far as unmotivated? Where also? The one Thomase article think it was where he said was trying later on last year for the fences, rather than using the entire field like he was previously and being in a quiet setting.. Like outback Milwaukee might be easier to get that swing back?
Maybe many of his balls were pulled, or hit on the ground to the RS later on were because pitchers were jamming him? I give WeEI reporter the same credo’s as do Globe reporter Shaugnessy.. -0-. They are nothings.
Shaw was Not good defensively at 3rd.
Xander and Pedroia are both very good defenders and Moreland is a much better 1B that Hanley. So the infield D will be a lot better with him scooping the bad throws. Just look at the Cubs infield D as a model. It helped their pitchers out and saved a lot of runs. The question mark is Sandoval and what he gives you. A slimmer and healthy Panda has proven he can hit and play an average 3B. This team could be dangerous because the OF D is one of the best if not the best in baseball and we all know they can score runs and adding Sale will make that rotation better.
Hang on to all of them. Injuries ALWAYS happen. Figure out what’s needed after those injuries occur or if an extra bat is needed at the trade deadline. Or wait for an offer from a desperate GM and steal something.
But they need space too. I think they should trade Buch, and they would still have Six good starters, plus the three Triple A guys.
For a whipping boy, Swihart sure draws plenty of INTEREST.
Never understand the hate from so many people for this guy.
I could see him winning the starting catching position Vazquez can’t hit and Leon went slowed down towards the end and that’s coming out of nowhere after the way he started his career.
Scouts don’t see him as a long term catcher and don’t think the bat plays a lf. It’s not really hate, just people hesitant to consider him a starting quality mlb player.
That’s just not true he will be a catcher. I have heard of no scouts that don’t see him as a catcher. His defense is not bad he has fast pop times and he handles the position well. The only reason people that don’t watch the Red Sox think this is because of him getting demoted to AAA after less than two weeks i the the season when he was the scape goat. He will be an above average catcher in the big leagues both defensively and offensively.
As a catcher he doesn’t have to hit that well to be worth it even if he offered sub part offense if he returns and puts up 2015 numbers from a catcher that’s good production. And quite frankly I believe he can do better than that. Honestly when your starters 1-3 are sale porcello price do you need a game caller or would those starters prefer more offense?
problems last year seemed to be related to the pitchers not being comfortable with him behind the plate. the catcher needs to be able to call the game- starters don’t want to spend the whole game shaking off the catcher because he has no feel for the game.
I was referring to the more personal hate where a lot of commenters act like he killed their mothers or something. They seem personally offended when anyone suggests he could ever be an ok player.
Yes he had trouble calling games for two weeks before he was demoted he was a scapegoat for slow start by an expensive rotation nobody in AAA seemed to have the same complaints when he caught there.
I think you replied to the wrong person.
So let me get this straight you’re willing to do the Chris sale trade which I approve of but not willing to spend a little bit more and bring in Bautista to go over the tax ? This makes no sense. It’s not like he’d get a long term deal if you’re going for it go for it don’t pull up now.
100% agree. They have to go all in at this point. Bautista is the kinda of guy who could put them over the top. They should be able to clear some space by getting creative with his contract, and working out creative trades with Bucholz, Craig, Rusney, even if they have to throw in a C prospect or two. Just save whatever they can against the payroll, since CRaig and Rusney are sunk anyways.
Castillo and Craig I believe don’t count against the tax because they’re off the 40 I believe, as much of a waist of $ they are I think they have to stay there because they are so concerned about going over if they trade them and eat half they then count against it.Buchholz won’t be on the roster I’m sure of to many pitching needing teams if you got rid of his salary you should only be like 5-10 over by signing Bautista to 20ish and never signing moreland. Now look @ career splits of moreland panda and jbj which scares me could use a guy who can hit both.
They were originally on major league deals therefore they still count in the 40 man look at AROD for example still counts but not on 40 man
It’s different because the yankees bought him out the Yankees did the nice thing and bought him out rather than embarrass him and send him down. If they bought them out they’d be liable.
Incorrect
overthemonster.com/2015/5/19/8625305/the-benefits-…
Honestly stole that from other commentator
Carl Crawford’s contract still counts and he’s off the 40. So you’re saying if the Dodgers just optioned him to triple A his contract would have gone off the books…..
Did you read the article? That’s pretty much what was said in the article. Yes according to that author Crawford a rod and the likes still count but by optioning Castillo and Craig they don’t. If thats true I can only imagine that the Yankees and Dodgers just don’t want the distractions while Craig and Castillo are alot more quiet. Remember both of those guys had been cut prior to the new cba being signed.
No. As a five year vet. Crawford or A-Rod could refuse the option to AAA and still collect all $$$ which payments count against the cap. Craig and Castillo had less than 5 yrs so they had to accept the assignment or forfeit the $$$. Even so some web sites count them towards the cap while others disagree. I do not know the answer but there is a difference status that could possibly be treated differently.
Good pickup. If this were not true, any big market team could cut a private deal with an older player in the last years of a contract to get under the cap
Thanks jmi definitely clears things up.
That’s correct, they don’t count against the Luxury tax But they still count against the Red Sox Payroll number and if they don’t want to go over that number then they won’t. Losing a first round pick to sign an over the hill Bautista would be the dumbest thing Dombrowski could ever do.
how would bautista put them over the top? he is a declining hitter with limited defensive ability. they have no space for him in the outfield, hanley is a better dh option and they do not need another right handed bat with betts, boagarts, pedroia, and hanley at the top of their order already.
neither he nor EE would be good options for the sox.
The penalty the Sox would incur if they went over the threshold this year would be more than substantial. I think it would be 40% under the new cba.. plus you guys are crazy .. Bautista is ill fit for the team .. aging slugger firmly in decline asking for a premium contract …bay pass
*bah pass
fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=1887&p…
Starting in august (when he was healthy)he hit pretty much his career norms even him aging he’d help out tremendously and protect against the many questions after their top 4 hitters.
Bay pass was actually more appropriate… Jason Bay
It does make sense because theyd also have to give up their 1st round pick, no thanks!
Again why worry about a 1st rounder when you’ve already done so much to improve for the short term? This article says nothing about the 1st round pick just the luxury tax which is my main problem.
It doesn’t matter what the article says and of course their worried about a 1st round pick, cmon. They gave to restock the farm some how and what better way then holding onto your 1st round pick. Why would you want to lose it for an over the hill player?
If you’ve looked @ the previous comments of mine you’ll see links one of which will show you splits with Bautista over the hill might be debatable he hit his typical self after August and I stand by he would be a nice addition to a team that has a question mark @ 5 positions 1. catcher can someone offer production consistently(Leon faded later on ) 2. Pablo I don’t believe I need to get into 3. cf what will jbj offer? especially against lh, struggled as well after such a hot start, 4.benintendi is a rookie theoretically could slump 5. moreland had a sub 300 obp last season and has had one season in the last 3 above a 720 ops not exactly someone for 1b I’d like. It’s a good thing that rotation is stacked.
The article is flawed; don’t get caught up in it. Also, the team already has a strong medium-term outlook, so it isn’t like they’re just punting the future. Next year’s 1st round pick will be VERY important for setting up the next transition (not rebuilding) period.
I don’t need the stats, I know what they are and it doesn’t matter. No way would I give up a 1st round pick for Bautista period.
What part of Sale being a BIG add for each of the next three seasons but a LOW luxury tax impact do you not understand. Bautista would both cost a draft pick (the real reason for the lack of interest) and bring a big luxury tax number. Boston gave up two big prospects for Sale precisely because he adds talent WITHOUT hammering the luxury tax. Was that hard to understand?
I just have a problem getting rid of the talent they did and having 5 question marks I illustrated before offensively. Why give that up and not go all in? Yes draft compensation yes salary tax but you’ve already given up so much @ this point that seems pretty insignificant when your run would be a 3 year run with sale.
I think you replied to the wrong person as we are in agreement.
You don’t need the stats? Kinda sounds like you can’t even listen to reason stats never lie. Look it up he’s a significant improvement over certain members of their current offense.
Are you feeling ok? I said I ALREADY KNOW THE STATS. Got it? I know what they are and IT DOESN’T MATTER. For God’s sake, why would anyone want to lose a 1st round pick to sign Bautista? We aren’t talking about Encarnacion or even Turner, we’re talking about Jose. Sorry but he isn’t worth it.
Seriously sounds alot different then actually looking and looking @ the lineup which has issues it’s as simple as he’d be a drastic upgrade over moreland and any team who had spent the prospect capital shouldn’t stop because of a draft pick. Moreland has had an ops over 800 once in the last 3.Bautista in his bad year had that and again if you’d actually look after august you’d see he looked more like 2015 Bautista but you’re to pig headed to actually look because you know everything.
I keep telling you that I know the stats, I’m not the one that’s pig headed, you are because you fail to comprehend that I know his stats. Why would I look up something I already know? Every lineup has flaws and you need to understand that Moreland isn’t going to play full time, he won’t play every day, Dombrowski has already said this. Moreland is the replacement for Shaw, a part time player. Hanley will play DH when Moreland is at 1st base, which will ONLY be against right handed pitchers. Someone else, most likely Young, will DH against Lefties. They don’t necessarily need to invest money and lose a draft pick for a DH for a year or two, they can fill the position from within. If necessary and if this doesn’t work out they can trade for a Bat at the deadline, if necessary. Bautista simply isn’t worth going over the luxury tax or losing a 1st round pick when they already have what they need in house.
So you’re admitting they might have flaws and your solution could include trading for someone @ the deadline? Which can be costly ask the mets with half a year of cespedes alot more than a draft pick in the last year of it costing you a 1st rounder. I’ve explained before there’s 5 question marks that would be nice to put at least one of them to bed especially a team that did the sale Thornburg deals.
Of course, every team has flaws somewhere. Waiting to see how the fair offensively is the smartest thing Dombrowski can do. If they need a bat by the deadline then they can trade for one, ids rather do that then invest in Bautista and lose a 1st round pick.
What were the ??? a year ago?
1. How could they dump Hanley?
2. How could they dump Panda?
3. How could they dump Porcello??
4. Was Pedroria too injury prone?
5. Could Bradley hit over the Mendoza line?
6. Would Betts and Boegarts regress?
7. Who would play LF?
8. Would their C’s be a black hole?
9. Could Papi hit at age 40?
Exactly, well said and I think for the most part it worked out well. Now with the additions of Sale, Thornburg, Moreland, a healthy Smith (eventually), Benintendi as a permanent player, a healthy Sandoval… the sky is the limit and if they need a tweak or two Dave will be on top of it.
It’s a difference in opinion I prefer address it now and get off to a better start and @ a lesser cost probably as mid-season trades can be costly. Jmi different year different expectations the Sox will be good this year the question is how good with the moves they made anything short of a world series isn’t good enough bautista could help get the better record of the 2 which helps not only regular season but post season and seeding.
An arrogant, underpaid (according to Jose’s delusional $150 MM demand to extend with the Jays last yr) and therefore unhappy aging player is not the answer if the question is how to build a winner. Any team that gives Jose more than a one yr deal will be sorry.
I never said much more than 1 year (2 max) because of the age it’s actually the reason I like him to Edwin who wants 4 for more than 20aav @34. Bautista was underpaid on his last contract that’s what he got for signing it so early. And it didn’t stop Toronto from doing pretty well with him. And honestly alot of players are arrogant no matter what they say. On a one year deal he has to stay happy to earn his next contract.
What do NYY, Bal, Tex, Hou, Cle, Col, SF all have in common? No interest in Bautista. Why ? Because it makes no sense to pay for his declining yrs on a 3-4 yr deal and it makes no sense to give up a draft pick for a 1 yr player.
Makes no sense on a one year deal? but half year rentals go for way more for even less period of time. Lesser players have signed 1-2 year deals Baltimore multiple times Texas last year with desmond. Just saying that it could cost you more later on down the line to fill an immediate need ask the mets or any other team thats done a midseason trade plus cost you a few games early on.
Perhaps you don’t understand the difference. In the offseason every team (well not every but most) have a strategy of how they can build their team into a Championship team within their payroll structure. If the Red Sox go over the math (which almost NO ONE in this thread could be bothered to do) and determine that they can make up for losing Ortiz by: Benintendi playing a full time role for the year, Moreland’s addition, Sandoval being healthy, Hanley playing less in the field so he can concentrate more on hitting, a healthy Young, a healthy Holt and Rutledge… then if they need a bat at the deadline, which would cost PROSPECTS and part of a salary VS commiting to a player that wants more then $15m a year and will cost a 1st round pick. Signing the free agent would be more expensive in every sense of the word then just waiting and if need be acquiring a bat later. The Red Sox aren’t stupid and they don’t want to go way over the luxury tax. If people would be bothered to do the math they would see that they don’t need to add a bat, the only area they wont be top 10 in is in HR’s but if you look at Chicago & Cleveland neither team was top 10 in HR’s, so that stat really doesn’t matter.
If he wants 1 yr he can go back to the Jays. More likely his pride insists on 3 yrs with an option. I see Seattle 3yrs at 18MM per yr with a 4th yr 18MM or 5MM buy out.. Cruz has 2 yrs left so he would only have to play 1B/Of for 2 yrs and then DH. the last yr or 2.
So Spotrac.com has their payroll currently @ 180 total before figuring arbitration other reports say their total to be in the 190-200 range (this is including untaxable Craig/ castillio) meaning yes they spend. Last year they spent 234 total (again Craig castillo) A 15-20 million contract would put them below even figuring taxes and always could rid more salary through Buchholz. They still made $ and tons of it last year and could make more $ by just bringing more success. I get it this is about more and more its a business. Just think they shouldn’t stop now after all of the deals they’ve made and the expectations that follow. Yes as I’ve said they are going to be good with the best 4 hitters in their lineup and that pitching staff there’s to much talent. Yes there are areas they could get better offensively key word could all of the ways that you describe are still question marks Pablo was declining even before surgery I wouldn’t bank on him. Benintendi looked awesome but realistically is a rookie and I don’t like to base offensive improvements on that. Moreland is essentially replacing Shaw which even then could be considered a down grade last year with the versatility that Shaw brings. Theoretically they got career run production from the catching position last year especially Leon. All this is while we havent even discussed david ortiz huge loss that no one even ee can replace but does it have to be that dramatic of a drop off offensively in his spot? And you keep acting like a 20 something pick is a guaranteed better prospect than what would cost vs a deadline deal drew pomeranz pitching well for half a season cost a top 20 prospect, half a year of cespedes cost Michael Fulmer that’s just to name a few deadline deals they are expensive. I’d prefer make a most likely cheaper move now by forfeiting the draft pick gaining more time with the player you’d prefer wait and pay most likely more later all while only saving a few million as a player acquisition can still cost some $ itself generally you’re not acquiring a guy on a minor league deal but a cespedes,Bruce or beltran.
Jmi on 3 years I’m not in on him either @ this stage I highly doubt he gets more than 2 and even then
Last year they didn’t spend $234m, not sure where you’re getting that from, they spent $198m, which is bad enough and if they spend like that again they will face the highest of penalties. I’ve done the math, even put players below their career and lasts years averages and the Only area they will struggle in is in HR’s but like I said that isn’t the be all and end all, just ask Chicago and Cleveland. I would Never give up a top 20 pick on a hitter over 33 years old, never. I’m done with this discussion as it’s just going around and around. You want Bautista for some unGodly reason and I don’t. If we were talking about 2-3 years of Encarnacion there may be an argument but we aren’t so good day!
Willy I agree. I am also done with this. Nick doesn’t get it. DD doesn’t want Bautista, or anyone that costs a 1st rd pick, period. Personally I agree but that is not relevant. As for the $$$ the official lux tax penalties for last yr will be out any day. If the Sox trade Buch they will be able to add a vet for 1/2 a season if needed and stay under for 2017 thus breaking the multiple yr affect.
You say you’d never for a guy over 33 then bring up an albeit better 34 year old?
234 all things added up it includes bonuses and again Craig castillo which all are untaxable
spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/2016/
And again I said they were going to be good I just wouldn’t stop there with their expectations
Agreed.
What are you talking about? Why would I bring up a better 34 year old when I said I wouldn’t sign anyone over the age of 33?
You’re looking at that payroll diagram the wrong way. They listed the Total monies spent, including Minor leaguers, that isn’t the same as what is counted against the Luxury tax or the money i’ve been talking about.
The best place to look at what is counted against the Luxury tax is from: Cot’s baseball contracts. (docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hyYtQVBNP7yQFgBn0z… )
I said this in part with Castillo craig I knew this I was talking about it from a business point of view grand picture the amount spent.
You brought up Edwin encarnacion who’s 34
You just don’t understand the difference. I’m done talking to you.
For those who thought they knew what last years payroll was, think again.
The final numbers are out and their payroll was $204m.
If you do the math…subtract the $189m from the $204m you get $15m, then multiply that by 30% and you get the $4.5m, exactly what they paid. according to several newspapers and online accounts.
Under the new rules in the collective bargaining agreement, Boston would be hit with a 50 percent tax rate as a third time offender if they are unable to dip below the threshold. An additional 12 percent would be tacked on if they exceed the limit by $20 million, which increases to as high as a 45 percent surtax for third time offenders that are over by at least $40 million. There are also penalties that would increase the draft pick compensation surrendered for signing certain free agents and limit bonus pool money for international signings.
This is why the Sox wont be signing a Bautista or Encarnacion or anyone who will receive a large payday and I don’t blame them for not wanting to go over the tax limit.
Obviously they care about the tax which is why they’re doing this. I just disagree because of the moves and agree as the team is currently constituted they won’t go after a big $ guy but is it not possible they trade Buchholz? They are already under (according to all reports are under already )and could theoretically flip that $ around and either acquire a guy to replace his salary either bullpen like Holland or trade. We know your feelings on Bautista so we won’t go down that road again. There are ways they could still spend on a guy and stay under which obviously they care about.
About draft compensation worth it’s a debate even amongst mlb Gms and no correct answer you have guys like Dan duquette who don’t care and then there are teams that value it beyond belief. Normally I’d be one of those people who overvalue picks but this year with this team I’m different as with expectations. The new cba makes it so no matter what you keep your 1st rounder in future years for me easier to stomach as well as being allowed to spend internationally for the first time since moncada signing.
They are trying to trade Buchholz right now but they’ve received many more calls on a few of their other pitchers instead, time will tell if they can move him or not but if they do they’d have the money to add a bat (if they want). With Beltran gone i’m not sure who that short term option would be but I’d keep an eye on either Napoli or Alvarez or Carter on a 1 year deal. Known of those players would require draft pick compensation and they may be able to get one of them on a cheaper deal then first expected.
Everything I’ve read has their asking price very high for Buchholz in addition to not taking on any salary luis Castillo from Miami was one name that got brought up if that’s the case he might not go anywhere. One of the guys you mentioned probably could come even if Buchholz doesn’t move before spring training. One guy is going to be cheap with all the power hitting options out there another guy who brings more versatility and offers insurance is plouffe @ this stage Idk how much he’d go for might be a possibility a well.
or they traded Shaw for a reliever and signed Moreland for cheap to be an alternative.
This stupid crap about the luxury tax penalty drives me crazy. They pay 50 cents on the dollar for every dollar they go over. So if they’re ten mil over they’d pay five. This is a big deal why?
Because it is good excuse to avoid signing Bautista… old, defensive liability & declining offense.
Liability? doesn’t matter when you have a dh opening. Declining offense? quite possibly but instead you sign a guy who can’t hit nearly as well even in his decline year especially with the way him and other members of your starting lineup hit lefties Chris young can only replace one hitter.
My money bets Moreland’s overall numbers look like Bautista’s at years end(including games played) and at 1/15th of the cost.
The problem with that games played he’d mainly be a dh with the Sox injury concerns are cut in half and career wise moreland has never done anything other than Homer’s outside of one year. And again I’ll take career splits and not having another liability against lh. Cost wise ugh you’ve already spent so much on making sure this year is a world series type of year it’s just $ @ this point.
Maybe so, but the best teams aren’t always the teams that vomit money, and I’m not convinced Bautista would survive in Boston given his attitude and entitlement. In my mind, the length of the commitment, the dollars, and the very real chance that he falls flat on his face, and then we are stuck with him, make him a guy I would stay away from in the big market.
For the record, I would have loved Beltran, or even Holiday for what he ultimately signed for.
I was all aboard either of them as well. Attitude has mainly been a problem because of his competitive nature from an opponent like odor. I wouldn’t care if he’s on my team so long as he’s producing. i believe you’re right about not always being that vomit $ but if you’re already @ 190ish why stop now? especially if he could be had on a 1 year deal which doesn’t sound like he’s getting more than that. I think your personal hatred for him has altered your view of him his stats from August on look generally in line with his career norms
fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=1887&p…
Keep dreaming!
It got raised to 60-70 % and if you’re one of the teams when signing a qo guy you lose a 2nd and 5th as apposed to a 3rd still fairly insignificant when you’ve made the moves the red sox have. Instead they cheap out and make themselves very vulnerable to lh pitching.
I don’t see them being that vulnerable, and they have trade chips to address weaknesses if they appear. Let’s see what they do with their pitching surplus.
But why force yourself into a platoon situation and not acquire minor league depth like revisit Miami with luis Castillo or someone like him?
Do you believe that jbj can hit lefties? Personally I don’t know yet.
How about moreland? We know his career says.
Pablo? Again career.
benintendi is still young he might slump against them rookies have been known to definitely a question still.
And then there’s a catching Situation that’s still up in the air. I have to many questions with only one maybe two answers if they acquire that guy. Hey at least the pitching looks good.
It’s also because they don’t want to lose the first round pick to sign Bautista.
You trade all of the prospects that you have between Thornburg and sale and balk @ the idea of a draft pick ? It wasn’t mentioned as being the reason they said no to Bautista s agent.
I think the knowledge that they are going to be able to replenish the farm (albeit in limited fashion) with a first pick is part of what makes trading top prospect stomach-able.
The purpose I believe is to keep it competitive.
It isn’t a big deal this year but have you looked at the CBA? Next year and every year after you will also lose draft picks. With this in mind why wouldn’t you try to stay within the tax vs blowing way past it? They can do just fine with what they have and if, if they need a Bat they can acquire one at the deadline.
The issue isnt going over the tax. Its going over the tax repeatedly. That causes a lot of issues, and then when you are actually willing to do it for good reason (making big moves), you’re hampered to a point that you cant do anything. Then you have to also consider the other negative things, besides money, that come into play for being a tax team, under the new CBA. Makes a lot of sense to not want to incur those penalties, which is why the Red Sox arent the only team trying to avoid them…
Yes if a team has an opportunity to go under and reset the tax that’s probably what they are looking to do. Also realize that in two years big FA hits so most teams will probably try to get under for then.
that being said, I would have gone over if they signed Beltran. I’m still really surprised they didnt end up with him
I’m curious how many possible suitors Joey-Bats has turned away with his attitude. Seems few reports this week about teams not being interested in him. I know he’ll signed somewhere for a good payday, just curious what would have been if more teams were interested in pursuing him
The O’s are on record as saying no (bc their fans were vocal about not wanting him).
I think a lot. I can’t wait to see how it plays out for him.
I agree that his attitude is costing him at this point. Throw in the fact that the Red Sox, Tigers, Dodgers, Angels, and Rangers are all holding onto their checkbooks. Then teams are starting to eye the FA class in 2 years. I don’t see Joey Bats getting a big contract. Of course it won’t be the first or last time I’m wrong if he does.
I agree that he will sign somewhere but for a good pay day? I don’t think so. He is entering his age 36 season and is coming off of his worst season since 2009 (his first full season in Toronto). He dealt with injury last year and played in only 116 games. With that said, he still totalled 437 at bats and did not manage to record 100 hits. He also hit only 22 homers, the least since 2009 and hit .234, his lowest average since 2005 when he hit .143 with 0 homers and 1 RBI in 11 games for Pittsburgh. He also only had 69 RBIs last year, the least he has had since 2009 with the exception of 2012 when he only played in 93 games (he still recorded 65 RBIs in 24 less games than he played in this year). He also registered 1.18 strikeouts for every 1 walk he had this year. Over his blue jays career, he averaged 1.08 strikeouts for every walk. (For larger sample size ratio, 11.8 strikeouts for every 10 walks in 2016. overall in his blue jays career he averaged 10.8 walls per ten strikeouts) He also posted his lowest slg% since 2009. With all these stats at the plate showing a decline with his bat, and his glove is also not being valued as well as it has in the past. Last year his DWAR was -1.4. In 2015 it was -1.1. His blue jays career average DWAR is -0.45, around a full number better than what he posted last year.
With all of this being said, I doubt he gets more than 1 year 15 million. Not exactly what I would call a big deal for someone who has been one of the best players of the 2010s.
His numbers after August( when he got healthy) are pretty much in line with his career norms good enough to overcome that bad start and age thing to get a long term deal? I believe not. But I don’t believe he’s that far off next year if I guessed he’d be something like 240/360 with low 30s in home runs. If I were a team that had an opening part time at dh like the red sox I’d be all over it.
But throw in the fact his poor attitude, and that he can’t stay healthy and this is a big risk. I think teams are wising up after watching what has happened to the likes of Fielder, Josh Hamilton, Big Panda, A-Rod, Choo, the list goes on and on.
I do think your projections are in line. But I don’t see Joey Bats getting a big contract.
They should just let swihart catch, Leon won’t be able to sustain what he did Last year and on the crazy chance he does he is in his 30’s so just let swihart DH and catch twice a week because he’s not gonna play the outfield with benny, Bradley and Betts so his options are DH or catch
The plan is for Swihart to start at AAA. With the 10 day DL he can be recalled when a C has even a minor injury. This allows him to work on his D and rebuild his value as a top prospect. He is the same age as Gary Sanchez and was rushed to the majors because of Vaz”s TJ surg.
Leon is not in his 30s. He was born in 1989. He is entering his age 28 season. Swihart is not even competent defensively behind the plate between his poor framing ability, blocking ability and subpar ability to call a game. He looked very good in left field last year prior to injury and he was an infielder in high school. While Benintendi looked great in a sample size last year, it was just that, a sample size. Perhaps Farrell platoons swihart with Benintendi until Benintendi claims the job and young HE’s against lefties with Hanley playing first considering Moreland will be a platoon player. Or Maybe Young platoons with Benintendi until Benintendi claims the spot and swihart DH’s vs lefties.
With third base unclear, maybe they have him take ground balls at third in the spring and platoon him with sandavol who has struggled in his career against lefties.
I agree, Leon probably will not be able to sustain his production at bat throughout the year. But Vazquez is the future. He is a great blocker, has a rocket of an arm and knows how to call a game. With the sox lineup expected to be one of the best in baseball again, they can afford to have an average offensive catcher as long as the catcher is great defensively just as Leon and Vazquez are. Besides, swihart is no lock to make the team. He very well could start the season in Pawtucket to work on his intangibles and defense behind the plate or maybe even at third in case sandavol continues to decline.
Except that Vasquez isn’t even anywhere near average offensively even for a catcher. I am guessing that Vasquez will end up a backup with Swihart becoming the full time catcher after a half a year in AAA. His defense was not bad. He actually had a good arm good pop times and blocks the ball fine. He had troop levels with Wright but he is a knuckleballer. After he was rushed in 2015 out of injury necessity there was no talk about poor defense but then in 2016 after two weeks he was sent back down he was just made the scapegoat for an underperforming pitching staff. The biggest knock defensively is his game calling and maybe pitch framing but he did grade out above average in 2015 according to fangraphs.
Bautista is the biggest jerk since Albert Bell. I’m glad DD politely refused. The last thing we need is a fading, overpaid, entitled former superstar. We have enough of that with Price.
Except Albert Belle was actually great for us. No one could have foreseen his career ending injury happening 2 seasons into his deal.
“New age sabermetrics demean the need for starting pitching, but that is contrary cuteness. ”
Comments like these from Gammons really do harm the integration of analytics into baseball, and create a ridiculous narrative that analytics are just out to screw with tradition.
“New age sabermetrics” aren’t demeaning starting pitching at all. The most commonly bought up “analytic” themes regarding starting pitching are not undermining it, it’s all about understanding it. If there wasn’t an effort to learn, we’d never know about things like third-time-thru-the-order penalties – which are mislabelled “cuteness” by hack writers trying to push division.
Totally agree. I love both traditional approaches and new age statistics. The challenge is really melding them together into something coherent to give you an edge.
That said, I do opine for a time when the majority of starters could and frequently pitched complete games, and 200 innings.
I hope they trade Buch for prospects! Pomeranz to the pen!! Sale-Porcello-Price-Wright and Erod rotation!! 98-100 wins
Buchholz had nearly a 5ERA and will cost $13.5m this year. I doubt he is anything but a salary dump for a low-level (team’s 12-20th ranked prospect).
Buchholtz was awful the first half of last year but was great down the stretch. Right now, he has little trade value but he does have hope based off of his last month and a half of last year. Wright was great the first half but was awful the second half when the weather began to change to being cooler prior to injury. He also has successful experience out of the pen. Pomeranz is a lefty who had has experience in the rotation and in the pen. With Ross being the only lefty lock for the pen (Robbie Scott was good but I don’t see him making the team out if camp and Abad was terrible when came over and did not make the playoff roster), I say Sale starts opening day, then Porcello, Price, Buchholtz and Rodriguez. Keep the left right left right left stagger. Put Pomeranz and Wright in the pen as your first two rotation depth options. Wright would serve as a long man out of the pen and Pomeranz could serve as a specialist and/or long man while in the pen. If needs arise as the year goes on at other positions, you have the highest quality starting pitching depth in the majors to deal from. I mean, tell me if I am wrong but the sox would be the only team in the league with two guys (nevermind one guy) in their pen who was an all star as a starter last year.
“Trading for Sale is going to cost you JBJ, Moncada or Benintendi, Kopech, Devers and that might not even be enough”
Pretty close to what it ended up being devers was were they drew the line.
Not really what it ended up being….
Instead of Bradley, moncada, devers, kopech, it was moncada and kopech. You saved 2 out of the 4 you mentioned. That’s actually 50% less than what you said.
When you count the other 2 lesser known/rated prospects it’s closer than 50 % probably like 2/3 of the way. And I said it was going to cost you and did an estimate which was a wrong estimate when you’ve seen some returns for alot less of pitchers/players on a more saturated market like last years is easy to do its a guessing game not a statistic or something that’s easier to measure.
Well actually you said Bradley moncada devers kopech and maybe more. So it’s more like 60% of what you said or 3 out of the 5… Lol I’m just playing with you. You’re right of course with your prediction being a decent prediction. I myself thought it was going to take pretty much the exact same package you had predicted, I was surprised it was less.
Lol yeah I’m glad it wasn’t as a red sox fan but the white Sox still got some studs.
Oh yeah absolutely, they still have up a ton. Just with what I thought we would be giving up I was against the trade. But with the deal how it ended up I was more comfortable with the risk then I would have been.
Agree love the fact that no one on the major league roster was touched. We have a really young team and excited to see what they can bring for years to come.
With no significant additions or subtractions from the Red Sox projected 2017 lineup their payroll for MLB Luxury Tax purposes comes to about $215MM to $220MM +/-.
. $178MM per Cots: 12 guaranteed contracts…(10 expected to be on the roster + 2 Castillo and Craig in AAA.)
. $25MM +/- for 10 Arbitration Eligible Projections per MLBTR
. $2.6MM for the final 5 MLB players to complete the 25 man roster
. $13 to $15MM to complete the 40 man roster plus Benefits, Incentives and Ins. MLB charges all teams.
TOTAL RED SOX PROJECTED PAYROLL for MLB Tax Purposes: $215 to $220MM +/-. That’s about $20MM over the Tax Threshold.
Craig and Castillo, 100%, do not count against the luxury tax limit.
Sorry, you’re wrong they do count. They are signed to MLB contracts hiding them in Triple A doesn’t save the Red Sox from counting them towards the tax threshold.
There is a link in this very thread that says otherwise, and a quick Google search will provide numerous reports that will also state otherwise. So unless you can provide links on the contrary (and you cant) then you should probably alter those figures in your original post.
Castillo & Craig ( 21.5 MM) may not count because they have less than 5 yrs MLB time with options left.. If they trade Buch 13.5. That’s 35 MM gone. Once they get under for one yr it resets to the lowest % for 2018.
Sorry but they do count as I explained above.
What rule are you citing. A number of web sites disagree because they could not refuse the assignment without forfeiting the $$$. The difference is whether or not they have 5 yrs in MLB.
You didn’t “explain” anything. You only cited your (incorrect) opinion as a fact. Again, I ask you to cite a credible source that refutes the numerous articles that say Craig and Castillo count against the tax (hint: they dont exist).
After researching it more, Craig and Castillo’s contracts as of now Do Not count towards the luxury tax.
Craig & Castillo count against the Red Sox payroll but not against the luxury tax because they aren’t on the 40 man roster. In order to be counted against the luxury cap they must be on the 40 man.
Pinball is wrong in this one they absolutely do not count against the luxury tax. They were removed from the 40 man.
Craig and Castillo don’t count against the Cap for sure.
“No significant additions or subtraction” except likely the greatest DH and future hall of fame david Ortiz is gone with his 16 million dollars he made last year which is essentially being replaced on the roster by platoon hitting gold glover Mitch Moreland who is earning 5.5 million this year… Money wise, that is a 10.5 million dollar difference in salary from what Ortiz made last year to what the guy who is taking his roster spot will be making this year. Not to mention, Uehara made 9 million last year and Tazawa made 3.375 million (call it 3.4 million) and Ziegler made 5.5 million. They are all gone. So that is a total of 17.5 million dollars approximately. Uehara, Tazawa and Ziegler’s set up roles will be replaced by Carson Smith (who was on the books last year for $529,000 and he hits arbitration for the first time this year so lets say he makes 2 million too considering he and Thornburg are both entering their first arbitration year and have both had success even though smith was out all of last year pretty much) and Tyler Thornburg is projected to make 2 million in arbitration. That is still a total of 4 million dollars in Thornburg and smith replacing $17.5 million in the set up role that ziegler, Uehara and Tazawa made last year. That is roughly a 13.5 million dollar difference.
Right here is $24 million dollars less on the books than last year. I understand other guys will get raises in arbitration and naturally according to their contract however based on what everyone else made last year, for the sake of argument, the sox have saved at least $24 million this off season.
Even if we sign Joey Bats, where would we play him? We got Betts in right and Benitendi in left and Hanley and Morland at 1st and DH, we aren’t signing Joey Bats to be a platoon guy, they are fine the way they are. I see them sticking with Panda this season and if it works out good for them but if not Holt will play 3rd until Deverse is ready. The Red Sox look good and young, the only issue now is without Moncada we have no one to replace Padroia in a couple of years(I envisioned them moving Moncada back to 2nd and Devers at 3rd)
The article makes me think that he wanted to come over before they signed moreland. If he came in cheap enough they can still move moreland.
Joey Bats to plsy 3B and next year 1B if Moreland doesn’t resign and Travis isn’t ready.
Not to be difficult, but Boston has so much talent already I don’t know why EE would be essential. The 2013 version got a lot a career or near career years and played over it’s head a bit. But this team, as constituted, should be in the high 90s in wins as a floor, and could resemble the 1986 Mets.
The only reason he’s “essential” is just to replace the numbers that Papi put up. He was the only free agent that put up as good as or better numbers than Papi. Beyond that, no, he’s not essential to the team. They have a good core, though I don’t think they’ll produce at the level they did last year. I just hope it doesn’t take Price half the year to get into a groove like he did last year.
Boston scored 878 runs last year-=101 more than the closest AL team (Indians) and didn’t have Sale. They can cope with a 40 run drop off.
I think eduardo Rodrigues for Charlie Blackmon would be a great addition to our line-up. You could then hypothetically trade Bradley to replenish the farm or more desirably trade Bradley, groome, etc. for a right handed starter like sonny gray.
That’s a trade Colorado wouldn’t make straight up. Blackmon’s slash line was .324/.381/.552, and he’s got three more years of control.
Yeah I would have thought that but then it was reported they wanted to do Blackmon for Stroman but Toronto wanted more.
I didnt think about that but that would be a good idea because they need to get rid of either betts bogaertz or bradley because lets be real they cant re sign all three but please no sonny gray
Glad the Sox aren’t going after Bautista, he’s not nearly the player he used to be and I’m sure I am one of many that just can’t stand the guy.
Pipe dream alert.
Andrew Benitendi
Dustin Pedroia
Charlie Blackmon
Mookie Betts
Hanely Ramerez
Xander Bogaerts
Pablo Sandoval
Mitch Moreland/Chris Young
Christian Vazquez
Chris Sale
David Price
Rick Porcello
Sonny Gray
Drew Pomeranz
Joe Kelly
Carson Smith
Tyler Thornberg
Craig Kimbrel
I’d prefer not going after gray reportedly athletics still want premium talent back and I’m curious if he’ll return to pre 2016.
Highly unlikely Benintendi leads off, he has never been a leadoff hitter, not in college, no where.
We have a young core of really good hitters but whos replacing papi’s power? Idk if Hanley is going to have the same motivation without Ortiz babysitting him. Idk if JBJ will hit 25 bombs with his struggles against LH and his 3-4 week slumps. And Sandoval who knows? I’ll take Bautista on a 1year 20mil deal. He’ll put up good numbers to get a multi year deal next year in FA. I love our squad but This isnt a 800 run team anymore.
Oh yea and i can’t stand Bautista but ill take his production. He dealt with some injuries last year but i hear he’s in good shape and look at his previous 6 seasons, As consistent as they come.
He’s still recovering last time I checked
**Workman that is
He isn’t necessary. You strengthened your weakeness and balanced your team. Looking at it by position. Platooning young and Moreland will get you some production but yes a drop off from Papi. Hanely dh more regularly should most likely help his offensive game. You could expect more production from Xander this year. You had awful offensive production from left field last year, I think benitendi could help there. Yes Bradley may have a drop off a bit, sandoval could be a big positive or kind of even effect at third because your third base production last year was already dismal so anything positive panda does is a positive.
Xander really wore down last yr. Against some LHP Young spells JBJ or Beni; Holt plays 2b or ss and Xander or Petey DH. This is the type of flexibility DD wants to have. Some of the hitting loss from not having Papi is re-couped with base running and keeping the regulars fresh. This also why they wanted Rutledge a RH in the mix.
Why do all these commenters have no idea of money. Batista would cost 80 millions plus a first round draft pick. A short term contract. I think that the Red Sox are a little over rated. The Allen Craig and Rusney contracts are total loses. Panda, Hanley, and Price are expensive. Buchholz must go to avoid the luxury tax. Mooreland looks a great pick up. No Hanley fielding problems. Papi retirement gives the Red Sox flexibility. Hanley is a DH. Swihart could be a major wild card. A good hitting average fielding catcher would be valuable or he could be an AAAA player. Next Brock?
80 million? What ? He’s a 1 maybe 2 year deal. That’s 40-50 million if it’s a 2 year deal. And hanley is actually a decent 1b especially for someone who has never played the position. And just because someone is expensive doesn’t mean they aren’t good (hanley,price) price is a really good 3 starter on any team which he very well might be. Alot better than either new York teams 3 starters with the question marks that persist with the mets and whoever is the 3 starter for the Yankees. And do yourself a favor look up hanley s 2016 slash line again better than any 1b or potential 5 hitter on either new York team.
Bautista’s problem is that he only merits a 1-2 year deal, but you don’t give up a 1st round pick for a 1-2 year player.
Yea makes sense. Bautista will get lucky if he gets a two year deal from any team. His market has dropped. Its gonna be a fun season. I think our bullpen is being overlooked, Adding Thornburg was a good move. With Carson Smith coming back and If Joe Kelly can pick up where he left off. We’re good. Our starters im not worried about.
Anyone know Brandon Workman’s status? He’s missed a lot of time but He showed good signs when healthy.
Has Peter Gammons ever typed before? His article is awful.
He is in the Hall Of Fame. You should go back and read some of his articles written over the last 40 years, although I doubt you have the ability to see the greatness that got him elected to the HOF.
One of my favorite writers, I agree he is a Red Sox homer but I love him
He hasn’t been the same writer since his brain injury. People are quick to point out he’s in the Hall of Fame and that’s great but he got in there for his work before the stroke or whatever he had.
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They can’t keep all of their pitchers, there are only so many roster spots. It’s simple math Peter, you should know better.
Author, please educate yourself: Swihart wasn’t moved off of catcher due to “defensive issues”. He was demoted because the front office was in love with Christian Vazquez and needed an excuse to send Swihart down, and so it said he needed to CONTINUE to polish his defense. Then when it was clear that LF was a huge issue (Benintendi was still a 2017 ETA at that point) the team moved Swihart to LF as a way to get him to contribute to the 2016 team. Defense had nothing to do with it.
Swihart is not good defenseless I don’t care what they say, He is definitely good trade bait with Buchholz tho..