Following up on last night’s report of a four-year, $60MM offer from the Blue Jays to Dexter Fowler (via FanRag’s Jon Heyman), Mark Saxon of ESPN.com reports that a rival exec tells him the Cardinals’ initial offer is believed to be in the same range.
Heyman previously reported that Fowler’s camp was of the belief that he could land an $18MM annual value, so there’s no indication that either offer is close to getting a deal done at this point. But, the pair of hefty offers to Fowler serve as a strong indicator that the switch-hitting center fielder is enjoying a much more robust market than he did last winter when his stagnant market ultimately culminated in a one-year deal to return to the Cubs.
Fowler once again rejected a qualifying offer this winter, but he’s coming off a brilliant offensive season that also saw him play markedly better defense in center field after he altered his positioning. The former Rockies/Astros/Cubs center fielder is capable enough in the outfield that he should be able to help any club with a vacancy at any outfield slot, and his strong .266/.369/.419 batting line and 38 homers (in addition to 44 stolen bases) across the 397 games he spent with the Astros and Cubs in 2014-16 should sufficiently dispel concerns that his above-average offensive performance was a product of the time spent at Coors Field earlier in his career.
I don’t get how he is getting so much money. And then barely anyone wants Brett Gardner when they’re basically the same player and gardner makes less(most likely)
Why trade prospects when you can keep them and just pay Dex?
Yes, but Gardner is only a 2 year commitment! He will go somewhere to a contender.
Hmmm… Fowler is younger (30 to 33), more versatile defender (Gardner only played 11 innings in center last year) and much better hitter (129 wRC+ for Fowler to 97 wRC+ for Gardner in 2016). But ya, they’re “basically the same player.”
He’s a Yankees fan
On that defensive note, it’s not that he’s more versatile than Gardner, it’s that there’s no use for Gardner to ever play center since they signed Ellsbury. When any injury happens to Ellsbury, Gardner always mans center and plays it very well.
According to DRS and UZR he’s been average to below average in center over the last few years
Dexter is a good fielder, better than average hitter with a nice OBP with plus speed that produced a 4.2 WAR whos prices is his contract and 1 possible prospect in the way of draft picks.
Brett, fine corner outfielder, about average bat with an ok OBP that produced a 3.2 WAR. Would cost about 60% of Dexter but would also require multiple quality prospects.
The only real reason to go for Brett over Dexter is if you have an early draft pick and/or only need him for 2 years.
Because Gardner’s been declining for years and Fowler just had a career year? Fowler’s also a CF, Gardner’s a LF.
I was hoping for a mega trade for Trout
Baez soler happ Jimenez candelerio and cease.
Please stop with the “my team trades for Trout” proposals. There is no reason for the Angels to accept anything less than 3 established young stars plus prospects. A deal for Trout is going to hurt the team acquiring him. For example, there is no way the Cubs acquire Trout (right now) without parting with at least two, if not three, of Russell/Baez/Schwarber/Hendricks/Rizzo.
But now that Sale has been traded, what other crazy proposals can people do?
60 over 4 years is actually pretty fair for Fowler. I know the demand is somewhat high for him but he isnt worth over 15 million a year especially with a 4th year. He will sit on it till Thursday and decide where he wants to play for the next 4 years if he doesnt get any other offers.
I said something similar on a different thread and was ripped because “I didn’t know anything.” I stated that he isn’t worth the money because he is a good, not great, hitter and his defense is solid but not spectacular at all. I’d value him around $10m a year at most.
No harm in him trying to maximize his contract, but the reality is that any deal he gets for $15m a year (or more) will end up as just another bad contract given to a player who was never as good as the hype. I will never fault a player for signing on the line though! Take whatever they will give you!
Im guess he ends up In Toronto of Texas.
I don’t think your evaluation of Fowler is wrong. I think the flaw in your reasoning is that “good, not great hitters” with “solid, but unspectacular defense” in center field are worth more than $10 million per year in today’s baseball.
Forgive my ignorance, but are you stating that he isn’t even worth $10m/yr or that I am undervaluing him? I am thinking you mean that in today’s baseball he’s worth more, which unfortunately is correct. Contracts are getting absurd.
Sorry if it was unclear. My point was what you inferred. Slightly above-average players are probably worth about $14-16 million per year in today’s MLB. Josh Reddick is about average, and he just got 4/52, which wasn’t outlandish. I don’t think Fowler’s worth 4/72, but 4/60-64 isn’t shocking IMO
I am concerned about the Reddick deal, but you’re correct, that’s going rate in the game today.
I agree, the market is driving up his value, but relatively speaking he’s worth about $12MM a year going forward past 2017 I would think.
I actually think he will probably decline fairly quickly and that his contract will be an albatross within 2 years. I hope I’m wrong because as a fan of baseball in general, I hope he proves me wrong and puts up video game numbers th next 5 years (against everyone but the Astros).
I sure hope he signs elsewhere
I agree.. I think the Cardinals are starting with Fowler and will probably move on tomorrow if he does not accept. They cant wait on him too long. They are probably starting with Fowler, then moving on to Cain, followed by Adam Eaton.
I hope the Cain/Davis rumors are true. If not maybe MO will grow a pair and shoot for a Frazier/Eaton package. This would solve their OF and #3 hitter issue.
1. Eaton CF
2. Carpenter 1B
3. Frazier 3B
4. Piscotty RF
5. Diaz SS
6. Molina C
7. Gyorko 2B
8. Grichuk LF
9. Pitcher
How could you put Frazier and his horrible OBP in the #3 slot?!
Because he hit 40 HR and has an a career .317 OBP. The Cardinals are missing a #3 hitter, thats what you do with a guy who is capable of hitting 40+ HRs in a season w/ a 300+ OBP
Matt Carpenter can’t hit the ball in the #3 spot.
Right!? Frazier is not a #3 hitter
I don’t disagree that Frazier would be a great addition in St. Louis, but just wouldn’t bat him there. .309 and .302 OBP last 2 years.
Who would you switch a 40 HR hitter in the #3? Just curious because Carp is a doubles machine and as of now Piscotty needs more time in the majors before taking on a role like that.
Id put Frazier 5th where the high power low OBP guys belong.
That looks very viable for as the Card’s lineup if they can get Frazier in a deal for Eaton. They would Trade Carson Kelly and possibly Peralta and more prospects for the pair
I wish I could be more enthusiastic about that lineup.
I Remember, not so long ago, the days of Rolen, Pujols, Edmonds, and Renteria. That was a nice lineup card.
I don’t think the Cardinals have the prospects to trade for Frazier/Eaton unless they’re giving up one of Reyes or Martinez. Davis and Cain might require one of those as well if they’re packaged together.
I bet the Cardinals could get Cain/Davis for Wong, Weaver, and two other prospect. Im sure they could avoid (and would not trade) Reyes to the Royals.
They would have to give up Bader and probably Peralta and would also retain Escobar as well
I have read that the Sox are interested in Carson Kelly and could throw Eaton out there as a piece so the Cardinals would therefore not need Fowler
$15M x 4 years? Take it Dexter, you are not going to get a better offer than that.
Actually, he probably will either get another year or a least more per year. Always seems to happen when multiple teams are offering in the same ballpark.
You got that right.
If 4 for 60 is best he gets, do Cubs sign him? My mind is clouded with watching his leadoff homer in game 7 of World Series but he was huge part of Cubs championship.
I think the Cubs would end up better off not overpaying for him. It’s easy to use your judgment clouded by instances like that, however they’ve been fairly good at developing prospects the last several years and I’m sure they have a replacement for him not far away. I confess I don’t know the workings of their farm system, but that’s just a hunch.
“but he’s coming off a brilliant offensive season that also saw him play markedly better defense in center field after he altered his positioning”
Ugh. I know you know better than to use 1 years worth of data when evaluating defense, Steve. He’s an average defensive CF, at best.
If the key to his defensive improvement was to reposition himself, then there is no reason to believe he will regress
I would think that by not playing 81 games in F2 tornadic conditions would also help him improve his defense.
That’s just funny.
Using 1 year if defensive data is going against everything the people that create the defensive data you are using say how to use it. No matter what, 1 year of defensive data is not worth making a judgment on. He’s the same player he was last off-season.
To be fair, it’s not like he’s been brutal year in and year out until last year. 3 of the last 4 years his defensive stats have been average/slightly below average. Only in 2014 with Houston did he have a horrendous year.
The Cardinals are also not looking for anybody better than Grichuk defensively in center just an upgrade from Holiday and Moss in the corner
Fowler would be a perfect fit for the Cardinals and a much much deal for them than if they would have signed Heyward last year.
I’m afraid Mo is all wind again this winter. Tells the public what they want to hear, then says “Oh Well”, we tried! He says he wants to make Cardinal baseball more exciting for 2017. Personally, I’d just be excited if Mathaney would post an every day starting line up that is the same. Besides Yadia and Piscoty, no one had a clue who the rest of the line up would be on any given day, —all year long!!!! That had to be very frustrating for all of the players. I don’t see where the Cardinals have the depth to pull off that block buster, beneficial trade. If Mo can’t achieve anything positive in these winter meetings, or at the trading deadline for 2017, I think it would be time for him to move elsewhere.
When you have guys not hitting you change the lineup. Cards did not hit consistently all year. Matheny gives everyone a chance if they don’t produce move on. Love the way Matheny manages and someday he will be rewarded with Manager of the year. Should have been in 2015 with a slew of injuries but yet the best record in baseball. Never understood how they gave Madden that award when a monkey could have done his job.
Walk on from Fowler If he doesn’t decide soon.
Let’s Go for Charlie Blackmon on a trade. now that they sign Ian Desmond.
Blackmon – Smoak, Harris and another prospect.
Blackmon & Mc Gee – Stroman
Blackmon – And another possible trades.