Brian Dozier’s name has been a focal point of the rumor mill for the better part of a month, but his prolonged saga may be drawing to a close, as La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that the Twins have asked interested teams to make their best offers for Dozier in the coming days. According to Neal, Minnesota doesn’t want the scenario to drag on too much longer and will prepare to open the 2017 season with Dozier as the second baseman if no palatable offer surfaces.
Neal suggests that the sticking point between the Twins and the Dodgers, who have long been the clear primary suitor for Dozier, has been that Los Angeles is seeking a straight up, one-for-one swap of Dozier and top pitching prospect Jose De Leon. The Twins, meanwhile, have understandably been insistent on the inclusion of at least one more well-regarded prospect. The Dodgers “haven’t blinked,” however, according to Neal. That lines up with this week’s report from FanRag’s Jon Heyman that the Dodgers aren’t willing to include any of Cody Bellinger, Yadier Alvarez or Walker Buehler alongside De Leon in a trade to acquire Dozier.
Other teams to express interest in Dozier at some point this winter include the Giants, Cardinals, Nationals and Braves, per Neal. However, there’s been very little chatter surrounding the Giants’ interest in recent weeks, while reports out of St. Louis and out of D.C. have suggested that interest from those teams may be somewhat overstated. ESPN’s Mark Saxon reported earlier this week that while the Cardinals may have some interest, they’re not actively pursuing Dozier. More recently, he tweeted that the Cardinals’ reported interest was part of the Twins’ effort “to extract max value from the Dodgers.” Meanwhile, Chelsea Janes from the Washington Post reported this week that any inquiries made on the Nationals’ behalf haven’t been serious in nature.
Atlanta hasn’t been mentioned too often as a potential landing spot for Dozier, though there’s certainly a reasonable fit there. Jace Peterson projects as the everyday second baseman at the moment, but Dozier’s bat would represent a marked upgrade. Adding Dozier would run somewhat counter to many of the Braves’ recent maneuverings on the trade market, which have generally taken a more long-term focus, though Atlanta did send three mid-level prospects to the Cardinals to acquire Jaime Garcia. Of course, Dozier would require top-tier young talent, and there’s been no indication that the Braves are willing to deal that type of talent for shorter-term gains.
While it’s certainly possible that one of these teams steps up and makes an offer to rival the Dodgers, or that another surprise suitor emerges from the woodwork, it seems that the likeliest scenario for a Dozier trade would simply be for the Twins and Dodgers to find a common ground. Neal notes that if the Twins were going to pull the trigger on a one-for-one swap, Dozier would’ve been dealt by now, which indicates that a trade would probably require L.A. to improve its current offer.
Considering the fact that Dozier is controlled for another two seasons at a total of $15MM, the Twins don’t need to simply take the best offer that someone puts on the table. While many point to Dozier’s prodigious second half in 2016, he’s somewhat quietly been a very good player for Minnesota over the past four seasons, averaging 4.1 fWAR and 4.5 rWAR per year in that time. The Twins could well hold onto Dozier until the trade deadline, when a larger market for his services — due to injuries to and/or underperformance from second basemen around the league –could emerge. Of course, in doing so, they run the risk that Dozier has another poor start to the season, as he did in 2016, or that he incurs an injury himself.
I could see the Braves jumping in as a surprise team here- if he’s not in the trade, they could put Albies at 3rd. Or maybe Dozier at 3rd. His power would play in that lineup.
If it is a 3rd baseman you are looking for, wouldn’t Frazier be a better and likely less expensive choice?
Frazier’s only one year… Braves aren’t making the playoffs this year
I’m a Phillies fan and I like what the braves are doing. Nationals are not that good so don’t expect them to win any more than 90 games. Atlanta has a chance if they can just get hot down the stretch. The braves are already a better hitting team in my opinion because there is not as much grip and rip ball in their lineup.
They aren’t likely to make it next year either, unless a bunch of those pitchers take massive steps forward
well, your opinion is wrong. nats were 17th in wrc+ and the braves were 28th. Nats 12th in ops Braves 27th
The braves didn’t have inciarte for the whole season. Kemp was not there the whole season either. Freeman didn’t play that well without kemp protecting him and kemp hit well for them. The braves had I think 2 people at a 100+ RBIs and their young players are getting better.
Matt Kemp isn’t good at baseball, fwiw
Freeman had a career year, kemp is just going to get older. Inciarte had 578 pas, the most he’s ever had, how many more do you really expect him to get next year? This idea that young players are just going to get better is also a fallacy. The league adjusts to players and they don’t always continue on a positive path.
Nats had Harper hurt/under produce, Rendon under produce based on peripherals, and added adam eaton. This should more than offset any decline from daniel murphy and loss of ramos.
Every team can play this what if game. The braves are a much worse offensive team than the nats by pretty much every metric.
Freeman’s improvements were likely due to his change in the launch angle for his swing and the second half increase in production was more likely his 30+ point increase in babip and less about matt kemp protecting him in the line up
I’m getting tired of the lazy “Matt Kemp isn’t very good” comments. .280/.336/.519 with 20 bombs in 241 PA. That’s a pretty good baseball player. It’s not crazy to think a 32 year old former MVP can still play. See Ryan Braun.
I’m getting tired of the lazy, “this player is good when I ignore the times they were bad” stat lines.
There is also way more to baseball than hitting…
Don’t ignore the months he was bad with the Padres, or the extensive injury history, or the fact he might be the worst defensive outfielder in baseball right now. Or the fact he has degenerative knees..
Every time “chesteraarthur” opens his mouth I laugh and cringe at the same time.
Thought it was degenerative hips? Or does he have both
Laugh and cringe, sounds like my reactions when i watch the braves try to play baseball
Chester Arthur may be condescending, but the at least the overwhelming majority of his points are valid and rooted in statistical evidence, but at least he’s not a ridiculous homer
You might be right, I didn’t really look it up to confirm. Either way, hes not a good player anymore.
Yes, Swanson should just hang ’em up because he’s already reached the pinnacle of his career. What turnip truck did you roll off of? Sure, pitchers make adjustments and young hitters get better. That’s what experience does for you.
“The braves are a much worse offensive team than the nats by pretty much every metric.”
They scored the 6th most runs in MLB after the All-Star Break last year with some of the worst pitching.in the league. Sure, they probably won’t do that again, but the pitching can’t be as bad as it was in 2016, and we should have upgrades in several positions, if nothing else because of health (barring injury, of course). Albies should be ready by midseason (fingers crossed) and we even have a 2B stud (Travis Demeritte) that keeps getting better, looking like a young Alfonso Soriano.
Agreed he is always trying to troll and act like he knows all
Arthritic hips was all I could find.
gaslampball.com/2014/12/18/7416301/matt-kemp-has-a…
Ok, so degenerative hips, which also affects his hitting and defense lol.
If all that were really true, the Cubs wouldn’t have won squat last year since all their players had “career” years in 2015 for the most part, then got even better or stayed at the same level of productivity.
The fact is, you don’t know squat until they step on the field and elite athletes can be elite athletes for their entire career if they’re good and motivated, and sometimes you get the outliers who have a good season and aren’t heard from again. Until they get on the field and do it, you can make a guess but saying these things definitively just looks foolish when it doesn’t turn out your way.
For all anyone knows the same stuff can be said about all of your Nats players “under” producing, when in reality maybe they already peaked and you can expect Harper to just be an average player for the rest of his career instead. What if Harper’s 2014 was his baseline and he just overachieved in 2015 and he’ll stay in the range he was in 2016 for the rest of his career? I mean if the league adjusts to players, why can’t they have adjusted to Bryce Harper too?
Way to argue against those straw men!
It’s really convenient to an argument when you just completely ignore the stats that don’t fit your narrative. There is a reason that teams don’t make the playoffs from playing half a season of baseball….
They did adjust to bryce harper….good players adjust back. See every good player ever.
Many young players (these braves “youngerster”) see a regression in their second seasons facing mlb pitchers because their is more of a book on their weaknesses for teams to exploit. The good players will adjust to those adjustments, but acting like it’s some crazy idea that young players struggle to adjust to adjustments is just not based in any sort of logic. Thus, this idea that every young player is just gonna progress on this positive trajectory is a fallacy. Baseball is littered with examples of how this plays out.
You can go ahead and play your hypothetical statements all you want. Stats and projections do not support that the braves are an equally talented offensive team as the nats.
To your point on the cubs – I think it’s pretty obvious that they over produced in 2016. Not many teams have a true talent level of 103 wins.
No one can hit in that padres park remember and matt kemp does make freeman better. Freeman should also be hitting his peak the next few years. If kemp is healthy they will compete.
Go watch the braves play and maybe you will see that they can play ball. Swanson may put up Lindor numbers and Freeman is a beast when he is protected in the lineup.
Matt Kemp is the worst at defense, but his bat still plays very much. For some reason Matt Kemp just forgets how to hit the baseball in the month of May. He’s been atrocious each of the last 3 or 4 Mays. If you look at his splits month by month over the last few years, he’s had 1 or 2 actually bad months outside of the month of May. Obviously May still counts, but he’s actually still a really good hitter who just gets space jammed in the month of May, lol.
Kemp is good at hitting. He is about the worst defensive outfielder in the game. In total he contributes about the same to wins as a replacement level player. If all we are talking about is hitting, then he is a good player and much better than what he replaced on the Braves.
I will take arthritic hips .265 35hrs 100 rbi’s any day of the week. Hey Brixton, did Kemp have relations with someone in your family?? Obvious you hate him for some reason, to say that he is a Terrible baseball player.
Chester, You may want to look at the 2nd half splits for both of those teams. You will find Prich is right. Kemp coming on board in August and Swanson being called up in mid-August made a huge difference. Freeman had Bonds on Steroids numbers on August, September and October. Enciarte also heated up in August and September hitting .371 and .314 respectively.
Strangely enough Chester the Molester of Facts, you got it wrong again. Freeman’s launch angle was within a half degree in every month of the season. A 33 point increase in BABIP with 65.2% of balls in play should result in a 21.5 point increase in BA. Freemans went up 38 points.
Chester, all we have been talking about here is hitting.
Chester the Molester of Facts has several accounts on here. One of his other accounts is West Coast Ryan. He thinks he knows something about baseball, but you already know the truth about that. That is why you laugh and cringe.
Brixton is a Padres fan so he had to watch Kemp butcher play after play in the OF for us and still holds a grudge. Chester/Ryan/whatever his other account names are, is just a blowhard troll. He does the same thing on the Padres board.
Brixton is a phillies fan
All David Ortiz could do is hit. he must have been a TERRIBLE baseball player.
Umm, there’s more to baseball than offense, right? Kemp’s own GM admitted that Kemp was “out of shape” in an interview. KKemp is an absolutely terrible defensive outfielder. He runs like an elderly woman pushing a shopping cart full of bowling balls. He doesn’t walk. He hits homers. That’s the extent of his skillset.
It is degenerative hips, which might be worse than knees, honestly. Can’t fix hips.
No, Ortiz couldn’t field so his team did something smart – they made sure he rarely saw a fielder’s glove. And Ortiz, offensively, is about a thousand times better than Kemp. Getting on base is a useful offensive skill too.
The Braves did show progress later in the season. After an atrocious 18-46 start, they went a respectable 49-47 the rest of the way. Unfortunately, they play in the best division in the NL, and too many things would have to break their way to allow them to compete in the NL East. They would need the Marlins to take a big step backward as an organization following the tragic death of Jose Fernandez, and they would need the Mets to somehow self-destruct. However, the fact that the Braves had a winning record against three of their four NL East opponents last year (11-7 against the Marlins, 11-8 against the Phillies, 10-9 against the Mets) may be indicative of this team possibly being ready to emerge out of the rebuild phase and into respectability.
Best division in NL ? The best team in your division constantly chokes and lost a series to the badly hurt dodgers . Dodgers were never supposed to one lmao
You guys are probably in the worst division in the Nl I’d say it’s the central then the west then the east can’t believe you said you were in the best division hahahah
so what did Kemp do that is “bad” for baseball? granted, he’s not the player he was 5 years ago before injury, but he still hits for power and drives in runs. this past season,35-108 for two of the worst offensive teams in baseball.
where did you get launch angle info @Pads Fans? Would love to see that for other players.
as we have seen throughout baseball history….power is a valued in MLB. that’s why Kemp has a job. He still can produce. at the plate
Guess the 108 rbi’s mean nothing, right?? Hard to have a discussion when people like you are BLIND to facts
Troll
RBIs aren’t a skill. They are a function of opportunity.
I don’t think .225/.305 is better than what Dozier did.
Do Braves fans do anything at all other than suggest that every free agent or trade candidate on the market end up on their beloved hapless team?
Albies is 5’9″ 160. I don’t think he is a long term option at 3rd. Maybe as a fill-in
I hope it’s not Atlanta. I see Dan Uggla II
Completely different players. Dozier plays good defense at second and runs the bases well, and also is a good base stealer. Uggla was none of those things.
Dozier plays league average defense, not that much better than Uggla before going to the Braves. Uggla was also a much more consistent and polished hitter and was much better at getting on base than Dozier is. Uggla also had a better track record than Dozier does now and still declined at a surprisingly quick rate.
yea uggla declined when he was 32 dozier is 29 and has one thing uggla never had speed and the ability to run the bases
Dozier will be 30 for the vast majority of the season and Dozier has been up and down year to year since he became a full time player. Dozier doesn’t have great plate discipline either which points to an even faster approaching decline. Dozier doesn’t have much speed, he’s a smart base runner, but I wouldn’t call him speedy.
18 steals in 20 attempts? That’s pretty good.
Dozier draws walks too, and his defensive numbers are miles ahead of Uggla’s.
25 hrs 33 doubles 15 sb he has been good for that every year with 100 runs scored with nobody hitting behind him
that has nothing to do with anything you’ve previously stated about decline or being substantially different from Uggla, but thanks for pointing that out. I could care less about his steal totals, with his middling OBP skills that means little.
And as for no one hitting behind him, Minnesota has had plenty of offense the last two years.
bottom 5 in the AL in almost every category offensively in 2015 and bottom half last year if u take dozier away the would be bottom 5 again
Minnesota has had no offense the last two years name anyone who gets close to dozier’s hitting numbers on the twins roster
Twins were the 15th best offensive team in baseball in 2015 and 16th in 2016.
You can pretty much counter the Uggla card with the Jeff Kent card.
True, but they wouldn’t have been that high with an average 2B.
The Twins offense minus Dozier just ain’t that great.
One player doesn’t make a team. Ask LAA.
Jake, By what metric? Not BA – 24th in 2015 and 21st in 2016. Not OBP – 28th and 22nd. Not OPS – 23rd and 14th. Not wRC+ – 23rd and 14th. Not Offensive WAR – 25th and 17th.
why are you looking at bits and pieces? there are plenty of sites that assign yearly weighted values on overall offensive performance.
What is behind his enhanced homerun production in 2016.
Why doesn’t anyone ever ask, “what was behind Davey Johnson’s enhanced home run production of 1973?” Sometimes it just happens. It’s not always a conspiracy. Dozier has been on an upward curve for the last several years and he hit an incredible hot streak last year.
Everybody hit lots of homers last year. Freddy Galvis hit 20 homers in 2016.
And that is why galvis had the worst OBP around. He makes more money through arbitration if he hits home runs. He knows the Phils won’t be employing him after arbitration, unless they want a back up infielder. The kid is just trying to make money. He is most useful as a slap hitter who can hit north of .280
Great point!!!
Fair questions aren’t conspiracies. Sometimes “hot streaks” can be attributed to known, real-world factors, such a player who made adjustments to their batting style, or recovered from an injury. If the “hot streak” can’t be explained by any of those factors, it’s fair to ask whether it is likely to be sustainable.
This explains it quite well…… twinsdaily.com/_/minnesota-twins-news/minnesota-tw…
Good stuff, thanks for posting it!
Seems Dozier has made some adjustments, though exactly what they are is somewhat controversial.
The biggest thing holding him back was trying to pull every ball down the left field line. Defenses had major shifts on him and he was unwilling to go the other way. Once he started staying behind the ball, he took off. I think he’ll regress somewhat – but he is a 25-30 HR guy annually. This trade is a perfect match- the Dodgers could use him and the Twins aren’t going anywhere with him. My guess is he stays with the Twins and they do an assessment of their team in June and see if more suitors emerge. Dodgers won’t bid against themselves, but Twins cant give him away either
I don’t see DeLeon as a giveaway. He’s ready to start at the MLB level and has (I believe) six years of team control left. For a team that isn’t going anywhere in the short term it’s kind of a no-brainer. They might get more for Dozier in July though, so they could play it that way.
Yeah, they “might” get more for Dozier in July, but that’s a big risk to take especially considering the market that the Twins have currently developed for him. Those teams that need a second baseman will do “something” in the meantime. Push a promotion from within, sign a low tier free agent, or make a deal with another club. Those teams currently looking for second base help may solve their issue between. Own and July. And Dozier is coming off a big season to boot. Say he gets off to a slow start in 2017, or worse, gets injured early on. Big risk to take there.
I’m not worrying the dodgers have two other options they’re in control like I’ve said and twin fans get mad even tho it’s the truth they have everything to lose dodgers really don’t worst off they don’t get him and go get forsythe or kinsler
Actually, I think it was kinda the opposite. Seems like the Twins are trying to turn every player in to Mauer. There’s way too much emphasis on using the whole field. Dozier is a pull hitter and he was in the second half despite the shift.
Giveaway meaning less than value. Deleon doesn’t do that much for me. He has a history of shoulder problems and he doesn’t seem like he has frontline starter potential. Most of these posts from Dodger fans are more concerned about possibly losing Alvarez than Deleon. If Dodger fans want a 1 for 1 swap, then give us Urias and you can put Deleon in your rotation……..There is no rush to trade Dozier. The Twins don’t have a replacement ready for him, he’s a team leader in the clubhouse and community, he’s on a very team friendly contract and he wants to be there.
Where tf are the twins fans getting this 1 for 1 bullshit lmaoooo. I’m saying it’s gonna be 3 for 1 but I’m not like you crazy loser fans that think it’s gonna be de Leon bellinger and Alvarez hahahah.
Reminds me of when the marlins were asking seager urias and pederson for Fernandez lol cute
Kinsler has a no trade clause for 10 teams of which all the west coast teams including the Dodgers are on. Kinsler also wants a long-term extension to waive that NTC and he will cost a couple of top prospects like De Leon and Alvarez. Saying they have options and then naming Kinsler who will cost as much as the Twins want and can say no to any trade to the Dodgers blows your whole argument.
The Twins lost over 100 games last year. I don’t see what they have to lose. The Dodgers on the other hand, do they want to win pennants while Kershaw is dominant, or are they going to have a good, but not great, team for the next 10 years
And Fernandez was a superstar. Dozier is a solid player that had a lot of hr this year , hey you know who else had a lot of homers :)?? Chris carter and he was realeased start living in the real world or stay losers forever
Yup, waiting until the non-waiver deadline is a calculated risk. In addition to the usual player variables, it’s difficult to predict the level of interest that far in advance, and at that point he’d be a glorified rental.
The Twins know what they have with Dozier. They don’t need to trade him. LA is interested in him for a reason and its not because he’s Chris Carter. Good luck beating the Cubs and Giants. They have front offices that know how to be aggressive.
I never said that. The 2nd piece is critical if the 1st prospect is suspect. Deleon and Alvaraz would do it for me. Maybe Buehler. Everything I read said that those aren’t available with Deleon.
The other thing you guys are forgetting is the years left on dozier if he had 4-5 years at price I’d do bueler and de Leon , maybe even Alvarez de Leon just maybe but he doesn’t he has twov
Maybe it’s the article above that says the Dodgers want a 1-1 trade for DeLeon. “the sticking point between the Twins and the Dodgers, who have long been the clear primary suitor for Dozier, has been that Los Angeles is seeking a straight up, one-for-one swap of Dozier and top pitching prospect Jose De Leon. ” Could that be it?
Nope dodgers would no doubt be willing to give pieces like Stewart or Calhoun asb2-3 pieces
And the Dodgers need impact players at team friendly contracts for the next couple years until some deadweight contracts come off the books, no? You are acting like the Dodgers are a small market team. They could resign him after 2 years, or let him go and probably get compensatory draft picks after 2 years.
Yeah he’s a free agent the year kershaw can opt out Harper and machado + are too 🙂 no thanks
I bet Stewart is the 3rd guy. The 2nd has to be a pitcher also. I’m sure the Twins are holding out for Alvarez, but if the Dodgers offered Buehler, Deleon and Stewart- the Twins would have to consider it – but it all depends on if Deleon is healthy
Why would the dodgers offer 3 guys that will be your 1-3 guys in 2 years or your 3-5 at worst in that amount of time the dodgers would only give up one at most
You are WAY over- valuating your prospects. Buehler just came off of major surgery, Deleon has a bum shoulder and Stewart will be middle relief.
If the prospects are so good, trade Urias straight up and you can put all 3 in your rotation…….
And the 2nd answer to your question is because it takes multiple high quality prospects to acquire All Star caliber talent. at the MLB level.
Buxton was the number 1 prospect in baseball 2 years in a row and he hasn’t dominated at all
I somehow read Alvarez instead of Stewart my mistake bueler and de Leon are still 3-4 easily
if he had 4 or 5 years the twins would be looking for an eaton like return
Yes – but the Twins have prospects that can be 3-4 guys. They need potential 1-2 guys. Buehler seems like a safe #4 starter after he heels. Alvarez could flame out, or he could be a stud. I’m sure the Twins would rather take the risk with Alvarez than a safe #4 future starter.
To this point, I don’t think the Dodgers have offered either of those as the 2nd piece and instead are looking at other highly prospects that lack a position like Calhoun. Hopefully, they decide soon. Anybody else mentioned except possibly the Giants is a smoke screen I think
Yeh what are the giants gonna offer? Beede? Good luck
I actually like Beede as much as Deleon. I don’t know that they have the assets to match up. If the Twins trade Dozier, they need a SS and pitching. Beede and Arroyo plus might not be a bad place to start if they think Arroyo can handle short.
Hopefully for you they make that trade then .
I’m just saying I think the Giants have a legitimate interest in Dozier. Don’t think their farm system matches up – but I think they aren’t scared to make a deal
And I’m serious too hopefully for you that trade plays outb
Kinsler won’t cost both Deleon and alveraz. The NTC and him costing so much diminishes his trade value. I can see one of the two but not both.
The Giants had 3 titles in 5 years. Are Dodgers fans happy that the front office continues to waste Kershaw’s prime in the name of 1988? Whatever it takes, the odds of three prospects all completely panning out to their full potential are zero percent.
Yeah marlins told us the same about pederson urias and seager how about you defend your own team using your own team kinda pathetic when you defend your team and argument using another
Wow, haha. I had not realized you had PhDs in English and astrophysics. I would have assumed by your name-calling, your moniker, and your spelling that you were tops in your second grade class. Meanwhile, if you had been reading anything other than comic books, like stuff on the Dodgers farm system, you would have learned that Urias was getting grades beyond 60 (that’s a scouting scale, not your GPA) for years. No one is suggesting Urias to MN, and DeLeon rates at a 55. Do you know what ‘game power’ is? Most people know there is a difference between batting practice power and putting it to work in a real game. Dozier has done it on the field. Real results in the big leagues matter, and most scouts are loathe to rate prospects at power over 60, meaning that game power producing 40+ homers in any big league season is max power. If you had ever tried hitting something 450 feet that was coming at you at 90 mph, you’d have some humility. You obviously don’t. And if you had some sense, you might care how you come off to your peers. PS – you come off as a jerk. Happy new year.
I’m 12 my name is Carlos and I read at a high school grade level
Too bad you can’t spell, use punctuation and use proper grammar at a high school level.
I’m going to kill myself im extremely depressed all I have to look forward to is dodger baseball
Because 1973 is not relevant to the steroid era thats why
Are you so naive to think that steroids didn’t exist in 1973?
If there were anabolic steroids widely used in baseball in 1973 we would have seen A )a huge increase in home runs (it didn’t happen) and B) would we really expect Davey Johnson to be the guy to abuse them? and C) If he did abuse them, why didn’t he keep it up after ’73?
Johnson moved to a much better park for hitters in 73, and also had the most at-bats he’d ever had before. Some guys fluke into huge home run seasons.
I wonder if you’ve ever looked up a guy named Roger Maris.
Nonsense! Steroids were first made in 1997 and amphetamines do not exist.
Every record prior to Sosa and McGwire is INDISPUTED
there were not modern steroids in 1973, but different substances that they used. Not necessarily substances to build up muscle but to keep up the performance and maintain the stamina.
He’s always had lots of power and, if you didn’t notice, home runs were way up in 2016 around the league. As long as MLB is using the same ball they introduced last season, I’m assuming there will be more power league -wide in 2017.
For many guys, baseball is mechanics and experience more than anything. To assume he can keep it up, he seems to be a late bloomer a la Jose Bautista, Donaldson, EE, Ortiz, Randy Johnson, Cliff Lee, Daniel Murphy- although I’m not sure if late bloomer is the correct word considering there weren’t hardly any peripheral changes between his 2015 and 2016 numbers. Sometimes, it’s health. We saw what Bryce Harper did in 2015 in a completely healthy season. Other times, it’s a bit of a fluke- like Ellsbury’s 32 homers in 2011. Even so, it’s not like he’s never had power; he hit 28 homers in 2015. I personally think he regresses a bit and ends up somewhere between his 2015 and 2016 numbers- 34 home runs, 85 RBIs, and a .250 average. It’s also possible he Dan Uggla’s his way into oblivion due to his tendencies to pull the ball, having a weaker batting average, fairly high strikeout totals, and average walk rate. Bottom line…who knows, but it’s not unprecedented.
but he also has his speed, his plus base running and his average fielding 3 things uggla never had
And Uggla had better on base, power, and slugging skills than Dozier has ever shown. Going to a park than doesn’t exactly favor RH pull hitters and enhances LHP performance might not exactly play in his favor either.
The question is only about power, though. If we’re looking at it that way, Uggla started his career with 27 homers and followed it up with 5 consecutive 30+ homer years…so, in that regard, there is even more stacked against Dozier in terms of power.
It seems like you are really intent on comparing Uggla to Dozier. They both did the same things well – hit for power and draw walks. Neither hit for much batting average, but batting average is the most overrated stat in baseball. They both play the same position, but Dozier plays it well and Uggla did not. (I honestly don’t even know when Uggla stopped playing, but I assume his career is over.)
In the ten seasons Uggla played his bWAR was 17.6. That’s not terrible for a second baseman – he just gave up so many runs on defense.
In the 5 years Dozier has played he has but up 18.4 bWAR. He has created more value in five seasons than Uggla did in ten. That’s a profound difference. I know people like you tend to dismiss baserunning and defense, but they are actual assets in real baseball.
Dozier is miles better than Uggla. Bottom line, end stop.
The entire league had inflated HR production. Dozier’s year power-wise wasn’t as much of an outlier as some others when viewed against his overall stronger numbers. Strong finish versus feeble ones in prior years.
I’m pretty sure the Dodgers aren’t trying for a one for one swap….
De leon & Yadiel Alvarez should do it!
Not happening. The Twins are trying to play hardball with the new management group, its not going to work. I’m a Dodger fan, not really a Friedman fan, but he will not give up both De Leon and Alvarez. The Dodgers have other options, the Twins don’t.
I think it’s more of the other way around. The Twins have the option of just keeping dozier and the dodgers other option seems to be the return of Chase Utley. So who really has the better option.
This is why the dodgers aren’t going to get over that hump. They are afraid to make the big move. They wouldn’t trade Pederson for Hamels and Hamels is obviously worth way more than Joc is now. Now they won’t trade 2 decent pitchers and a bat for a damn good second baseman, if not the best in the league? This Friedman group is FOS. You can’t rebuild and win a World Series at the same time. I’m not saying guy the system, but trade prospects to get good bats rather than sign FAs to outrageous deals. Twins should get a Hamels esq return for dozier.
Well guys as a bystander… gotta tell ya Dozier rakes big time and as far as I’m concerned Uggla doesn’t compare.. see the LA point, not a lot of need for second base around either league, would love to see him play third in Boston… not happening thou but got to think LA will make the move
Cole Hamels – 3.0 fwar
Joc Pederson – 3.6 fwar
And joc has what 4 years of control left? Plus he is cheaper
Pitchers WAR and hitters WAR isn’t really comparable.
Yep and you guys instead wasted your time to get Maeda who throws 5 innings and in Los Angeles, Hamels would have a 2.5 ERA or less and he is prob one of the best postseason pitchers in the game.
It’s funny you say that, because I wouldn’t trade Joc straight up for Hamels right now and I’m sure the Dodgers had others they would have had to include. I’m not surprised you don’t like Friedman.
Maeda cost them 28M for 8 seasons… Hamels would have cost De Leon, Holmes and probably Bellinger (seeing as he wasn’t that highly touted 2 years ago).
Plus, Hamels is overrated in the playoffs. He had a couple good games.
If joc is producing the same(more) as hamels with 4 more years of control and at cheaper prices, it is comparable enough to get that he is more valuable. But please, feel free to devise your own statistic that you feel is a fair comparison for pitchers and hitters.
There is no true way to comparable them to each other. Pederson is an average defender with a nice bat, but strike out concerns. Hamels is a #2 pitcher at this point.
And I don’t know where you’re getting Joc has 4 more years of control than Hamels from.
Meant that Joc has 4 more years of control not 4 more years of control than Hamels. Worded that poorly.
Wow what a horrible front office…why didn’t we trade Seager for David Price? Why didn’t we trade Urias for Hamels? Why didn’t we trade Joc for peanuts? These ignorant posts kill me. The front office will not mortgage the future to patch a hole. So you’re saying the Dodgers need to overpay for Dozier? We are offering De Leon and nobody else is offering anything better…why in heck would we offer more
True. He’s obviously not a good fit for the Dodgers. If he was, they’d be offering more.
The Twins would be foolish to take a #38 prospect and some mid levels for Dozier. They need to wait. They can get more than that at mid year or the end of next year and get more than that even if Dozier has an average year.
What other options do the Dodgers have? None. The Twins though have the option of waiting until July
It’s kind of foolish to think the Phillies solely asked for Joc. Around that time time period everyone asked for Seager and Urias as starters. If you look at the Hammels package yeah it was definitely more than Joc.
Exactly bellinger is gonna be a stud no doubt just like we knew about seager isn’t worth wasting on two years of up in the air dozier
@JKB I think that’s kind of presumptuous right. You’re saying the dodgers have no other options while the twins do. I would say this team is naturally going to get better against lefties for a vast majority of reasons. I can explain if you would like. They too can wait until July. Dozier won’t be the only RH power on the market. They both can wait until the deadline it’s not really ideal but if either aren’t going to blink that seems to be where it’s heading. But to say the dodgers have no other options is ridiculous. It seems with Dozier they are trying to buy cheap home runs. I also don’t believe it’s DeLeon straight up it seems as though they can’t agree on prospect 3
Did you see something about who the Dodgers are offering as number 2? I haven’t seen anything other than De Leon +1.
who is prospect 2?
I’m guessing twins want Alvarez bueler or bellinger which no way bellinger happens . And I’m sure dodgers wanna give players like Calhoun Stewart verdugo which are all still great for 2-3 pieces in a trade so twins are out of there mind. Sorry our name isn’t Dave Stewart
Comparing apples to oranges when you try to compare pitcher WAR to batters WAR. Ask any MLB GM who they would rather have and 29 are going to say Hamels. There are lots of .240 hitting OF with some pop. You can count the number of starters with 600 IP and an ERA under 3.20 over the past 3 seasons on your fingers.
Since the players on the Dodgers now have a history of hitting poorly against LHP, why would you say they are going to suddenly improve? I would like to read that explanation. Haven’t had a good belly laugh yet today.
The Dodgers are not offering a number 2 and that is the problem. They are offering a prospect with a ceiling of a #3-#4 starter for a guy that just put up a 5.9 WAR season at 2B. Not gonna happen
You know what makes it equal 6 years left compared to 2 🙂
Go blow up your team again and finish in last place , instead of worrying about the big dogs
Your team is the little brother that could ever win to the dodgers and giants
6 years of a maybe with injury concerns compared to 2 years of a proven 4+ WAR player. Sorry, it’s not even in the ballpark of equal and that is why it will never happen. Unless Friedman pulls his head out and adds another top prospect to the deal, the Twins are going to keep Dozier and trade him at the deadline for more when teams are desperate to make a playoff run or trade him elsewhere for more now.
We get to laugh at the Doyers and their $300 million payroll choking in the playoffs ever year. Trying to buy a ring hasn’t worked has it? Since Friedman is afraid to make a trade for a guy that can actually hit lefties and since the Dodgers have gotten worse and worse against LHP the past few years and since Chokesaw will miss a big portion of this season with a back problem that simply does not get better without surgery, I am going to go out on a limb and say we will get to laugh at you again this year.
That’s the biggest insult billionaires losing millions? When they probably make way more with the dodgers highest attendance we have more fans at your stadium Hana pads average like 10 thousand
Because Deleon is NOWHERE near the prospect of Seager, Urias and Joc. He’s not even your best pitching prospect – Alvarez is.
You pay more because that’s what you have to pay to get the other team to trade him. It’s really that simple – the Twins can keep him and the Dodgers can look for alternatives. The alternatives will cost something too and might not be as good. But if they do, then the Twins will keep Dozier and the Dodgers wont be interested anymore
Kinsler better overall the tigers would be more than happy for a package that starts with de Leon , then if that doesn’t work forsythe, 🙂 also I see them revisiting the Braun trade that was almost done if 2b doesn’t work out that’d be a dream to me
De Leon is at the level pederson was hype and stuff seager and urias were at a level above. Seager and urias are seen as future stars pederson was seen as a future solid player debleon is seen as a future solid player
If the twins don’t want 6 years of a solid starter for 2 years of a solid 2b at his highest value then adios actually 6 years of a solid starter plus more cause no doubt that’s not all LA is offering
That’s funny right. Except your under the assumption that Gonzo will repeat a career worse year against LHP. Turner since his change in approach has been average to above average so him getting back to at least average with a healthy offseason. You’re also operating under the assumption that Thompson and/or SVS will not be healthy. I think we saw last year exactly how vulnerable the Dodgers were after Thompson got hurt compounding the fact that SVS couldn’t stay healthy. Also hurt them that they had to rely solely on Kikè. So really everything that could go wrong against LHP did ( kind of like P injuries). Now I’m not saying they are suddenly going to flip a switch and piss pound lhp, but to expect all to go wrong against lhp again is naive. So no adding one guy won’t clean the problem although it’ll help. But go ahead and laugh be my guest.
6 years of a solid starter? i didnt know he showed he was already a solid mlb starter right away he is 170 inning above AA thats it even with the twins he is not on the opening day roster. also i didnt know a top 5 2b is just solid
Maeda has 28 mil guaranteed. he will make about 16 mil AAV if he is healthy.
Prich, its funny you mention cole hamels and trading all your young talent. Look what happened to hamels former team the phillies. They went all in after 2008 and didnt get a ring. Young talent is winning in baseball now and the dodgers are fine with being littered with it. Sure prospects arent proven but thats what they said about seager
Right.. we already know bellinger gonna be putting up better numbers than dozier in about a year or two . Why trade him for two years of dozier . They said that about pederson urias too
Surely that 1 for 1 trade rumor is BS? Dozier is a really good player with a good contract and it’s a sellers’ market. With the Dodgers current payroll, they’d be crazy not to throw another decent prospect in for Dozier.
Why wouldn’t they try if they’re seeking only one other mid level prospect in addition to DeLeon? Dozier only has two years of cheap control left and his two great seasons are sandwiched between two decent ones and his defense has got perpetually worse.
I don’t think the Twins want De Leon plus a mid level. There are going to be other teams interested as the year develops.
Considering that’s been their reported asking price I tend to believe that. If you wait for the season you risk him getting hurt or playing like he did the first half of last year.
Could be, but De Leon could need TJ surgery in June after throwing a 6 ERA. in MLB.
I’d bet on Dozier and his average 5 WAR over the past 4 years.
There is nothing to suggest DeLeon needing TJS while Dozier has had his fair share of streaky hitting. Until he can produce a steady WAR number his average tells you nothing. Going from 3 to 5 to 2 to 6 just paints him as streaky.
I’d say shoulder inflammation last year is a warning sign, and I’d think most people would agree. I’d have to look again, but I think he’s had a history. I’m not counting his sprained ankle as a concern at all.
I doubt there are many players that have had a 4.5 WAR in each of the last 4 years if that’s how you define streaky. If you find one, I bet they’re much more valuable than De Leon +1, and even fewer have 2 years cheap and controlled.
In the end I think we agree though. Neither one of us wants to make the trade as it is, so hopefully it won’t happen.
Yeah then we can laugh at your 110 lost team with dozier of no value or equal to now if he doesn’t tank
If the Twins have 110 losses you’re more than welcome to laugh. I will too, and I’m a Twins fan. The only good thing about losing is a higher pick.
The Twins have a little hope though. They finally got rid of a GM that still thought like it was the 60s. I’m looking forward to seeing the new guys at work, but it won’t be a good sign if they trade Dozier for De Leon + a mid level.
shoulder inflammation isn’t anything to say immediate TJS. A lot of young pitchers see time off for it, just comes from the unnatural motion of throwing a baseball. that’s really been his only arm related issue. that 4.5 WAR is incredibly misleading. he’s had two years much higher that coupled with two years much lower. you cast predict where he’ll fall looking at that, coupled with the fact that he’s a streaky pull hitter, which he is. I’m fine giving up JDL for Dozier I just wouldn’t include anything more than a flyer prospect with him especially with him playing half his games in a setting not favorable to RH pull hitters.
JDL is also a tantalizing pitching prospect. While Dozier had value prior to 2016, I think the Twins want a trade that pays for consistent 40 homer seasons- which it remains to be seen if he will provide that going forward. Plus, the Dodgers have all the money in the world. They’re offering what they’re comfortable losing knowing they have the resources. With that said, there are likely bigger offers on the table from other teams.
Which teams likely have bigger offers on the table? And what exactly do you think they are? The article points out that the other interest was mostly just the twins trying to drive up the price
I guess I didn’t phrase that properly. Bigger offers in terms of quantity. I could see an offer of a solid prospect coupled with a few average ones. Not bigger as in terms of JDL and prospects. I don’t know from who it would be from, though. Probably a team like the Cardinals trying to shed deadweight. Considering the Twins want pitching, maybe something like Wong, Marco Gonzales, Jon Gant, Matt Adams, and possibly a low pitching prospect.
the problem is from who?
As a Twins fan. I hope they somehow get Bellinger and someone else. He seems like a can’t miss 1b prospect. A lot like Rizzo was. I know they are focusing of pitching but the guy has serious potential. I’d be curious to see how an in the know Dodger fan felt about those 4 prospects.
I would definitely not trade Bellinger, Alvarez, or Verdugo in any Dozier deal.
The Dodgers should definitely add a little more though even just 1 or 2 lower prospects.
Sorry Bellinger isn’t going anywhere. He’s probably going to be ranked our top overall prospect and is a can’t miss for everybody. If they wouldn’t trade him for Sale they aren’t trading him for Dozier
Any thoughts on a DeLeon for Brendan Rodgers trade?
Doesn’t do anything for the 2017 Dodgers, and I don’t see how they’d move De Leon without any form of immediate improvement.
This is the first off season in forever when the Rockies aren’t desperate for SP’s with a pulse. No way are they trading Rodgers for one, unless it’s someone like Quintana, and even then I doubt it
No way would I trade Rodgers for just Quintana. I might trade a Rodgers-led package for both Quintana and Abreu, but the biggest lead prospect I would have in a Quintana trade would be Hoffman. Something like Hoffman, Tapia, and a wild card like Garrett Hampson. No more for just Quintana.
Sale just got Moncada and Kopech, yet Quintana can’t pull Brendan Rodgers? Somethings off there. Quintana is ever bit as valuable because of that extra year of control as Sale is.
Quintana is not as valuable as Sale based on 1 year of control. Especially to a team like Colorado where Quintana would probably be a much different pitcher with his hard contact and fly ball rates.
Good thing trade value isn’t based on how well you’re going to do in a terrible situation. The Rockies would be trading for what Quintana has done.
Sale: 3.03 ERA, 2.96 FIP, 129 ERA+ (three years of control)
Quintana: 3.29 ERA, 3.19 FIP, 118 ERA+ (four years of control)
Thats pretty darn close in terms of value. Quintana would cost an absolute haul that would start with basically any teams top prospect
Ray Ray has made clear that he views Quintana as a #4 somehow, so it’s not surprising that his proposal sucks. I’m not sure Quintana has quite as much value as Sale, given that Sale seems like a less-risky pitcher because of the strikeouts, but it would definitely take two top-flight prospects+
For the team trading for him it is. Teams trade value for a player differs, you think most teams around the league would have gutted their farm for Adam Eaton like Washington did?
A ton of fly balls, lot of hard contact, low k rate, and low groundball rate. These are pitchers that get throttled starting half their games in Colorado. It’s called knowing your environment.
I’m not saying it won’t happen. I am saying I wouldn’t do it.
Obviously I didn’t make it clear because you got it wrong. I said he belongs in the category of pitchers ranging from a weak #2 to a strong #4. I think he is much closer to the top of that range than the bottom, but he is still in the range.
Although if you put him on the Cubs right now, he would be the #4 starter.
And if the proposal sucks, then they could say no and I would move on and let someone else overpay for Javier Vazquez.
Well Boston overpaid — intentionally — because they’re really close to being the best team in baseball and Sale could easily put them over the top. Plus if they’re wrong they have infinite money and can try again next off-season. Rockies might as well be playing a different sport.
Besides Boston overpaying dozier is no sale , you could say you can’t compare pitchers and hitters but he’s not at that level please in that case Everyone is a superstar
Yeah and you don’t typically see prospect for prospect trades
Rodgers is currently the #6 prospect and De Leon is #33 on MLB. Not to mention the fact that top pitching prospects have a much higher bust/injury rate than top position player prospects. De Leon + another top Dodgers prospect like Bellinger might be fair for Rodgers, but a 1 for 1 is just a joke.
Well said by Ray Ray
I think Doziers gonna stay put. If the Dodgers want to be greedy with their prospects and overvalue them it’s going to cost them. A guy like Dozier was something that team last year sorely missed due to utleys struggles and team struggles against lefties. Sorry Friedman but your choice of being stingy with your prospects is going to waste Kershaw easily the best pitcher of our generation.
We need to ask the question as to why, at 24 years old, has Jose De Leon, in 4 years of MiLB pitching, has only thrown over 100 innings once. And that was in 2016 with a career high 117.
He is a very interesting prospect. But there has to be some durability concerns.
I think part of it is that they didn’t quite know what they had in him until 2014. That’s when he started striking people out at a gaudy clip. His innings increased each year prior to 2016. I know he hit the DL a few times this year, as well, (which doesn’t answer your durability concerns) so he probably would have been closer to 140 innings if not for that. Whatever the case, you also have to look at the fact that he wasn’t in the minors until he was 21. In terms of service time, his progression has been kind of normal.
He wasn’t worth giving a rotation spot until he was almost 2 years into his career, seeing as he was like a 24th round pick or something, then once he became a top asset, teams generally baby them through the minors to protect their investments. Urias is the same way.
Josh Harrison and prospects. Dozier hitting in the same lineup as Cutch, Marte and Polanco would be real nice.
harrison has no value to the twins he is expensive (2 years and 19.5 million he is owed) and what has he done the last 2 years not much with ops+ below 100
Far more likely is the Dodgers keeping DeLeon as a future trade chip and acquiring Josh Harrison for a lesser prospect.
If they aren’t trading Cutch, I could see them dumping Harrison and using Frazier to save $6 million or so.
Lol then the Cardinals pursuit rumor was false, so that the Dodgers would improve their offer.
Check that, his last two years he broke 100 inning pitched
But the concern is still there. Any Dodger fans know more into this?
So in terms of innings he was drafted in 2013 and he had thrown a total of 140 innings in college and pro debut. So they started him late in 14. He also took time to get into shape and stream line mechanics. It wasn’t until then that he actually became a prospect. Part of the innings issue is the dodgers are perennial playoff contenders. So if a guy has a chance to contribute in the playoffs they’ll start them late or manipulate their innings etc. The dodgers didn’t really plan on the rash of Major league injuries last year. So starting DeLeon late seemed to backfire. He was rushed at two points and that led to injuries. The first being his ankle. Then they tried to rush back from that which led to his shoulder soreness. They were probably looking to get him around 150-160 last year. But in terms of injury concern there should be none. If there was a hint he wouldn’t have pitched in winter ball the two previous years or the thought of him participating in the WBC would have been shut down.
Thanks for the input
Hilarious. The guy is almost 30 and hasn’t hit over .270.
Adequate defense and loads of power is worth more than batting average. He grades out well in about every aspect. This guy is a Frank Thomas in a teeny body! Well compared to frank.
The guy is no where near Frank Thomas, one power surge season doesn’t give him that distinction. Dozier first four years in the league doesn’t even come close to sniffing Frank Thomas.
yes but he is a lock for 25 hrs 30 doubles 15 stolen bases and 100 runs and thats guys like robbie grossman, eddie rosario, and joe mauer (the shell of himself) hitting behind him
Batting average is an overrated stat. He has been one of the most productive second basemen in all of baseball
Nice, evaluating a player based on batting average alone
Hey, don’t sell him short. He also evaluated age, because we all know that 29 year-olds on two-year contracts are destined to break down by the end lol
What and who would the Cardinals be willing to give up for Dozier?? Obviously Wong, then who else?
Since all reports (read the article) say the Cards’ interest is lukewarm, and/or they’re just trying to up the ante for NL rivals, I’d guess they’re willing to offer from their usual discard heap: Wong, Pham, Peralta, Weaver, Adams and a couple of AA guys from their middling farm system. Twins would yawn, as they should.
Why would Minnesota take the garbage from St. Louis? Minnesota wants young players, not crap like Adams and Wong.
Um, that’s just what I said. All the Cards would offer is their usual scraps.
What about the Pirates? We need a power bat..Josh Harrison and Glasgow for Dozier
i think you would be better off with just glasgow for dozier straight up twins dont want harrison and his contract
Glasgow is a stud. I wouldn’t let him go, especially considering Cole might not stick with the team and now has some injury concerns.
Guys it’s Glasnow
Maybe they’re offering the city in Scotland as a trade enhancement….
lol, thank you. I knew that subconsciously, but lost it when I saw how he spelled it.
If the best offer really is just Dozier straight up for De Leon, the Twins should hold him. De Leon might be a nice prospect but he’ll be 24 next year and has yet to top 120 innings in a season and has had shoulder soreness. He’s too fragile to give up 6-8 WAR in return.
i dont think that will be the best offer but if they dont get anything a lot better then that there is no point to trade him. see what happens the next 2 years with him and if they like if extend him they will have over 45 million coming of the books in 2 years
This guy hit 40 homers didn’t he? They want to give them a minor leaguer for 2 years of his service? That is ridiculous! The dodgers will not get over this hump if they don’t trade some of their prospect rich system. The Twins should get a Hamels esq return for Dozier. If I’m a Dodger fan, I am willing to deal people from OKC to let my major league team win a pennant.
I figured the Gomez/Friers deal was a close approximation of the value the Dodgers would be getting and should return. But if no market opened up for Dozier, keep him.
Dodgers actually are in a pretty good spot. It’s just an offer, take it or leave it. They have guys coming up that will round out the team quite well and Urias has arrived. Plus, money isn’t an issue. There isn’t a need to unload the farm for a guy like Dozier.
If the Dodgers’ inability to hit LHP is a “pretty good spot”, you’re spot on.
Are we going to sit here and act like one guy is going to fix that?
You are right, that’s was a big problem last season. But is Dozier really the solution? Not so much, if you look at his career line. Sure he’s got power, but his OBP is kind of stinky and he strikes out a lot. So yes he helps some with the LHP problem, but another feast or famine hitter isn’t exactly what the doctor ordered.
He hit 42, the one time, last year. So the question is whether that’s an outlier season for him or a trend. Remember Chase Headley? He OPS’ed close to .900, once. He hasn’t been very close to that high rent district since.
As for the minor leaguer, he’s MLB ready as a starter with seven years of team control ahead.
He’s the 38th best prospect with limited time in either AA and AAA, injuries, and a rotten MLB experience last year. How is he MLB ready?
Dozier does have a nice track record, even ignoring the 42 home runs. He’s been a pretty consistent 4+ WAR player for 4 years.
Why are we using war as our only basis? I can argue that fangraphs has him at a 4 war for only 2 seasons. It doesn’t really address his value to a team like the Dodgers.
Four games, thrown into the deep end because the Dodgers were desperate for starters. If you judged only by a pitcher’s first four appearances in the majors you would miss a lot of good players. Julio Urias, for one recent example. He looked pretty wobbly through his first ten starts or so.
You should know by now, WAR is that One Stat that Rules Them All.
It comes in different flavors, too. One to match any decor.
I’m prone to look at WAR first as a rating for overall value, and I think it’s valid. I’m sure you depend on some stats more than others.
As far as pitching is concerned, I value ERA and WHIP. I think Ks are vastly overrated.
I look at war sure. But war isn’t the sole overriding value. It also shouldn’t be the only discussion point. It’s also highly subjective especially depending on which form of War that is used.
Well, yes and no. WAR is weighted based on a chosen method, but it’s also based on the objective. I’m not sure I can think of a more objective measure when you consider that anyone that quotes another stat or stats is making the choice that best fits their preferred player.
Of course it’s not the only discussion point. Team needs, experience, trends.. lots of others are valid, but when comparing one position player to another, it’s about as objective as it gets.
dont look at war look at the numbers de leon 17 inning pitched in the majors 6.35 era and has allowed 5 hrs, only 180 or so inning pitched above AA so he would not be in the opening day rotation and ur saying that is equal to second baseman what would have led or been 2nd on the dodgers the last two years in HRs, steals, RBIs ,doubles and runs scored
I was talking about WAR for position players. I’m not sure how to value De Leon because his sample is so small. Maybe #38 prospect is a good measure because it’s probably based on scouts that have seen him throw.
The Dodgers should throw in Kazmir or McCarthey or both
you would have to add more prospects also because those two have negative value
I hope the Twins keep asking for the moon for Dozier.
Increases the odds of a Cutch to LA, prospects (plus some from the Pirates) to ChiSox, Quintana to Pittsburgh deal.
If the Dodgers are lowballing the Twins so much, do you really think they are going to offer a decent deal for Cutch?
The Dodgers aren’t offering anything they value. They might offer Calhoun for Cutch if the Bucs are lucky.
Hoping the Dodgers pass on Dozier and then look more at Kinsler. I’m not sold on what the Tigers have going into next season. I was certain players would be moved this offseason.
he has a no-trade clause if it wasn’t for that they probably would have already acquired him but you’d have to extend him in his age 37 and 38 seasons for him to waive it and it’s not happening
Yes I did know this. I would think it would still be an intriguing place for Kinsler to play.
Kinsler is the player they really need, but I don’t see him going anywhere. Detroit basically has no reason to trade him. The Reds do have great motivation to move Phillips, but for some reason he seems determined to stay put.
Interesting how the dodgers have not addressed their ‘glaring’ weakness against LHP this winter. If they don’t have the guts to pull the strings on Dozier and/or Mccutcheon, so be it (just like the Giants could never pull the string on a back end closer last year).
Hoping the dodgers drop the ball on this one too…
This trade could have been made a month ago, the Twins trade Dozier to the Dodgers for Deleon and Rhames.
twins are asking for guys like Alvarez they wont settle for someone like rhames
I really hope that the Angels are a mystery team for dozier right now! They looked like they were going to trade for him in the early offseason but after the espinosa trade it looks unlikely, Escobar is injury-prone and espinosa isn’t the best hitter, which is why we need Dozier at 2nd and decide between espinosa or escobar at 3rd. If one of those guys is on the bench with revere and marte this team looks like a playoff/wildcard team for sure.
I don’t think the Angels have anything to trade that can even match De Leon, rather than De Leon+. They lack enough depth to trade from the major league team, and outside of Jahmai Jones, their farm is quite unappealing. Tough to imagine them finding a deal
And who do the Angels have to trade for Dozier? Really no one.
I’ll take Trout! 🙂
Twin logic you’re not joking you probably hold trout and dozier to equal value
I was joking. The Angels farm system is terrible.
I follow LAD player development closely. While some Dodger fans here, who I respect, would not include Calhoun with JDL, I would. If Minn doesn’t want Calhoun (#4 prospect on some lists), I would offer them JDL and any two of: Sborz, De Jong, Heredia, Estevez, Micah Johnson, or Rios. These are all fine prospects from arguably a top 3 system in all of MLB.
Twins are in good shape with Dozier. De Leon has good numbers, no doubt, but shoulder inflammation scares me and I hope it scares the Twins front office too.
They could get just as much for him if he’s having a decent year at mid season or at the end of 2017.
I understand this sentiment that they don’t need to trade him and I guess you can hope for him to repeat 2016, but the problem at the deadline is the same as it is now – barring some injury to a contending team’s starting 2b, how much of a market is there really going to be for dozier? And at the deadline I think you’re less likely to see a team trade a young player who is contributing to their mlb roster because doing so devalues the improvements from adding dozier.
They could get equal of what they’re being offered now at the deadline. 🙂 that is if he doesn’t totally tank or injure himself seems like a big risk but it’s there team so.
Anyone that the Twins might trade for has just as much a chance of tanking or injuring himself. De Leon is more of an injury risk than Dozier, and probably more likely to tank in MLB.
Obviously the Dodgers aren’t that interested in Dozier, and The Twins aren’t that interested in De Leon. They might as well wait.
I didn’t understand what you were trying to say. De Leon’s injury was nothing as reported afterward. Like I’ve said in the past I kinda want this deal not to get done so it could bite the twins in the ass. Lot to lose nothing to gain for them . If they wait best case scenario dozier puts up good numbers and they trade him and get very similar to what the dodgers were offering from a desperate team which nobody needs 2b why would they need one at deadline. Worst case he totally sucks or gets injured .
I thought he had shoulder inflammation in 2 of the last 3 years? I could be wrong though since I don’t follow the Dodgers. What have his injuries been?
It’s more likely that a possible contender will lose a 2B in the first half than Dozier getting injured or having a first half that’s less than his average. If that’s the case they’ll get more than De Leon for him.
De Leon might be great some day, but it’s not likely. The odds are very much against him. Rarely does a very good prospect turn into a very good pitcher in MLB.
The chances of someone with a second baseman in contention getting injured is more likely to you that dozier having a bad year or getting hurt? Wow there’s no point of having a conversation with you if you actually believe that I’d say it’s about even chance or a little higher chance on the dozier side of sucking. Even if things go right who’s gonna blow things up for 1 1/2 years of dozier who would f things go right will probably have about 15 hr 54 rbi hitting 260. At the deadline????
Well, actually probability isn’t even close. The odds are way in favor of my point since there are 30 teams in MLB, and probably 20 of them will still consider themselves as possible contenders at mid year. It’s MUCH more likely that other 2Bs will stink or be injured than Dozier. They will need to be replaced. It just depends on what they’re willing to give up.
.I’d hardly consider De Leon equivalent to “blowing things up”, and isn’t that what we’re talking about?
Even if I were to agree with your numbers, that gets them more than De Leon at the deadline.
Well only time will tell I’m sure I’ll be right so remember me when it happens cause we won’t have any contact and if you’re right and de Leon blows up even tho he’s only getting better… I won’t care cause we’ll have forsythe or kinlser
Fair deals:
– Dodgers
De Leon and Buehler
-Braves
Newcomb and Soroka
-Nats
Robles and Banks
If they wouldn’t ship out Robles in the eaton trade, why do you think they are going to do it for dozier, when they already have murphy at 2b?
The Braves one isn’t quite equal to the other two, but thats only because Newcomb’s stock isn’t so hot right now, and the Nats aren’t moving Robles
Coincidence that the Braves package is laughably worse than the other two? I think not. You really need to take the Braves blinders off man
Chieftoto, not a great Braves package. Seems like the Twins terrible pitching situation might mean something like Newcomb, Toussaint, Fried, and maybe Alex Jackson. Some lower ranked prospects, but the kind of mid-rotation ceilings the Twins need to pile up.
As a Dodger fan I’d rather have Kinsler
This deal makes perfect sense for both teams short and long term. Dozier is a very quality player. Would instantly become the Dodgers second most productive player right behind Seager.
LA has the prospect depth to do this deal. De Leon, Calhoun, and a third good quality pitching prospect. I am sure this is the hang-up.
Either way, this greatly helps both teams. Which is why it probably won’t happen.
De Leon, Calhoun, and say Buehler.
Dodgers value Buehler too highly to add him into the mix with De Leon. I tend to agree with them. My three untouchables (for Dozier) would be Bellinger, Alvarez, and Buehler. Anybody else should be on the table, including Verdugo, IMO. To me, the Star Tribune article didn’t seem to imply that the Dodgers won’t deal additional prospects, just that the teams can’t agree on who. If the Twins won’t come off demanding one of these three plus De Leon, Dodgers won’t do it (I suppose Buehler is a vague possibility — but no way on Bellinger or Alvarez).
FYI you don’t have to include IMO in your posts. We understand it is your opinion. Just a helpful suggestion.
The halos have plenty to trade for Dozier. We can possibly trade Shoemaker or Calhoun along with Skaggs. Calhoun is Very consistent and Shoemaker is a soon-to-be star and Skaggs just got off Tommy John surgery so who knows what’ll happen with him. So maybe Revere and Skaggs would be best.
Calhoun has no control, Shoemaker doesn’t nothing for their rebuild, and Revere is worthless.
Lots of other teams could top Skaggs+
No one wants Revere. Skaggs is too much of a health risk to center any big trade. Calhoun would be interesting I’m sure (even though he’s not really a fit on a rebuilding team), but then that makes no sense for the Angels if they’re trying to contend
The Angels won’t be a factor. They don’t have the young pitching prospects that Minn will want (they don’t want vet ML position players). Plus, they just acquired Espinosa to play 2b,
This is the first I’ve heard of the dodgers wanting a 1 for 1. Frankly I don’t buy it. If that were the case the twins would have just said “no thanks” and went on their way.
The original article that the link goes to doesn’t say the Dodgers only want to do 1 for 1 either.
I can see this really, Dozier has only two years left vs six years of control for a top prospect.
2 cheap years of a proven 4 WAR player is worth way more than a soon-to-be-25 unproven prospect. Especially in this sellers market. 0% chance of a 1-1 and the twins GM keeping his job.
The Dodgers will be just fine without Dozier. They ran away with the division last year without him and they have essentially the same team going into this season. If they get an injury free Kershaw they will roll the Division again. If the Twins don’t want JDL that is fine with me.
As somebody who negotiates for a living (I’m a lawyer….yeah, yeah, yeah…I know), this call by the Twins for final offers seems to indicate an acceptable return has been offered and they just need to do their due diligence to see if other teams have changed their collective minds about their respective seriousness in acquiring Dozier. My guess is that they have come to common ground with the Dodgers and a deal will be announced early next week. From everything I’ve read, I going out on a limb and saying it will be De Leon, Alvarez, and a few lower level position players who have some sort of upside for Dozier and cash to cover LA’s investment in Alvarez. Or, I could see De Leon, Alvarez, a lower level position player, and one of the Dodgers’ bad contract MLB pitchers in place of cash, or some of the cash. For transparency purposes, I write this as a Twins fan who sees, and has seen, issues with dealing quality MLB position players for good pitching prospects (see Alex Meyer trade.) However, those two deals would be a fair return for the Twins in my humble opinion, and the prospect of ridding a bad contract and recouping investment in Alvarez seems like it would be intriguing to the Dodgers. So I believe, based on non-baseball negotiations, this is a clear signal that the Twins are happy with a proposed trade, likely by the Dodgers.
There are a ton of posts here that bring great points about how the Dodger front office has shown reluctance to part with talent, and both sides are right because of course all the deals that would have jettisoned seager and company would have been overpaying and the WAR they will get later will pay dividends…..HOWEVER, Andrew Freidman has yet to bring a WS trophy to LA and the cubs don’t look like they’re going anywhere and the Nats look like they are in win now mode. There is extreme competition across the NL. BEST CASE SCENARIO if they don’t get Dozier is to win the division narrowingly get thru the ds and hope the cs swings their way…but that’s been their plan the last few years. I think Theo Epstein gave up way top much for Chapman, maybe Torres will be the next seager…and Chapman is a reliever! But the cubs are the team that held the W up on the last game of the year so both points se valid, it’s all about what the goal is at the end of the day.
Also, do we really know how much a team truly values a specific prospect? I think not. It’d be terrible business practice to state such values; you would lose too much leverage. Same with how the Twins truly value Dozier. It’s like poker: you are always looking for the bluff. Both front offices know what they are doing, and it seems they are doing it pretty well.
They tried to use other teams to up the offer from the dodgers , like I called out from the second I saw the story. And that didn’t work so now they’re trying this strategy, of we’re gonna move on so make your best offer lmaoo
I say BYEEEEE
As a Twins fan I hate to lose studs like this but the team is nowhere near a window of opportunity. Few are accounting for the fact that Dozier is a southern guy, and Atlanta is approaching the arrival of a lot of players to the major league level. Could be a very good opportunity to lead the kids with a top tier producer in the new ballpark, as well as a guy who would consider it home. Twins could pick up two arms and a position player to stock up, Newcomb or whatever, and send Dozier as close to home as possible in the bigs. The player might be happiest there.
And I thought the twins really likes Stewart? Why couldn’t he be a piece along with de Leon and someone else not named bellinger Alvarez or bueler. Like I told you guys bellinger and Alvarez are staying no doubt no way they trade them unless the twins front office parties with dodgers front office and gets them drunk out of there mind on New Year’s Eve bueler maybe but even that I don’t see
You wouldn’t get the deal done then. Which I know you say you’re fine with, but that’s saying you’re fine with a hole in your lineup. Deleon and a low level won’t get it done. Deleon by himself isn’t close. If it’s not Deleon and another top prospect, it won’t happen. Which is fine by many Twins fans.
Uh hole in our lineup? Dodgers second and third options are forsythe and kinsler which I actually like better overall players
That’s good that you like Kinsler better because it will take De Leon and Peterson to get him.
Who’s Peterson ? Lmfao I’m okay with giving Peterson with de Leon never heard of him 🙂
Oops! typed the wrong name.. Lmfao is a rather rude comment to make.
I didn’t say typed I said I misread… try again tho
Dozier is a difference maker when healthy, particularly when hitting lead-off. Seems like a low price, particularly with how pitching prospects seem to be so lightly valued these days. The current Dodger regime has had trouble closing deals like this one, so maybe it’s just noise once again. If one high end pitching prospect is really the price and the Twins are OK with that, I can’t imagine someone else (whether or not they need a 2b) doesn’t jump in. This is too intriguing a player.
What was his “difference maker” stats last season? LMAO! He is a horrible lead off hitter. His OBP is garbage.
His stats? Like an OPS of .886, 104 runs scored, 18 for 20 in stolen bases, and I nearly forgot 42 dingers. Eighth best statistical year in baseball by CBS Sports, behind Goldy and ahead of Blackmon, Cano, and 500 others. All the way down to 13 according to Fangraphs, based on his combined fWAR of 5.9 for the season. His k rate was 20%, while Seager’s was 19.4%. Based on all that, there’s just no way the Dodgers should want this kind of lineup albatross hanging around.
You are now comparing seager to dozier?…. wow no words
just showing you his production dozier would have led the dodgers or been 2nd on the team in hrs, steals, runs, rbis,and doubles
I would never do that. I would use actual facts to explore what players do on the field. You should try it sometime. Facts, I’d like to introduce you to Haha. Haha, these are Facts.
In 2016, Dozier had an average exit velocity of 89.22mph, and an average launch angle of 13.92.
In 2016, Corey Seager had an average exit velocity of 91.68mph and an average launch angle of 10.54, Seager had 72 RBI and an on=base of .365. His best years are ahead.
There is no way of coming up with a probability rate on whether we just saw Dozier’s career year. I’d tend to believe it was and that selling high is a good idea, but the Twins and Dodgers don’t care what I believe.
Then there’s also the fact that this player had 104 runs and 99 RBI on a terrible team in a pitcher’s park. It would optimize the player’s prime years to put him in a better lineup with run producers (i.e. not Joe Mauer).
He would look really good in Dodger blue. Kershaw is in his prime. A-Gone will soon be gone. These windows of opportunity don’t last a decade.
They’re actually pretty comparable. Baseball reference’s WAR actually prefers Doziers 2016 to Seagers. But let’s not let facts get in the way of your “ha”s
LA is the worst hitter park Minnesota is actually a pretty good one what ya talking about Willis
Pretty comparable except seager is better overall younger not even at his top potential more years . But yeah very similar I agree
You never studied, Venkman. Fangraphs rates Dodger Stadium 102 for HRs vs Target Field a 98 for HRs. Rotogrinders rates Dodger Stadium a 1.08-1.18 for HRs to Target’s 1.01-1.02.
Pesky facts.
But again, I’m so grateful you were here to correct everyone in the universe on the basis of your awesome opinions.
When you wanna talk facts instead of you bias opinions talk to me until then stop being obsessed with me like a teenage girl over a boy band and gtfo
I don’t see why you feel the need to hurl insults and use abbreviations to denote naughty words, but please stop. No reason you can’t just debate with some modicum of civility.
Sorry Jeff but with some people on here it’s just not possible.
Got nothing on those park factors, eh? Where was any individual bias in those, let alone mine? You’re right, though, I spent years infiltrating Fangraphs and Rotogrinders just so I could be here at this moment beating you down with data.
Never mind that. I used a black magic called Cyants. You wouldn’t understand.
But it also came as no surprise at all that you resorted to name calling and bullying.
I won’t obey and “gtfo” at any point because a) you’re nasty to people, and b) I enjoy being in here to talk baseball with people who actually know something about the game (I wasn’t including you in that statement).
I’ll just wait over here in standby mode while you do your homework on what Cyants could lead me to such outrageous claims on park factors.
What exactly is your definition of “troll”? I have a new one.
He just gave you facts, again your response is bluster.
So far we’ve discovered that:
1) Your reading comprehension is poor.
2) You don’t understand the concept of probability.
3) You don’t seem to know what a fact is.
4) When you’re challenged on anything at all you throw a hissy fit.
These characteristics make it very hard to take you seriously, but they do make you annoying. Is that all that you want to be?
Why not use runs as a prediction point rather than HR’s? I don’t agree with haha but I don’t see how a higher average HR marker means Dozier will fair better or be more productive especially considering making contact is a far larger flaw for him than HR totals. Target Field is about 10% more of a hitters park than Dodger Stadium depending on whose stats you look at. You should stop cherry picking your arguments. Even when dealing with a troll..
Thanks friend why is everyone mean to me 🙁 I’m already suicidal
I don’t know if I can post links but here’s Doziers HR scatter:
hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2016_1761&…
Here’s Target field:
andrewclem.com/Baseball/TargetField.html
And here’s Dodger Stadium:
andrewclem.com/Baseball/DodgerStadium.html
Are the walls at Dodger Stadium really 4 feet tall?
Pretty much the main reason Dozier is valuable is because of his power for a 2B. He’s strictly a pull hitter, as you can see. I doubt there’s much difference between the parks in regards to Dozier.
Near the poles its 4 feet. I get that he is a pull hitter. How does this address his weaknesses though? This is a cherry picked stat. You said “park factors” but only listed HR numbers and continue to do so. Dodger Stadium suppresses literally every other hitting category compared to Target Field outside of HR’s. Especially to the side he pulls the ball to..
I didn’t say anything about park factors. Are you talking about someone else? How are diagrams of the park from above with very similar dimensions cherry picked?
Park factors are not left/right/center field specific, They relate to the entire playing surface unless you’ve seen something I don’t know about. If you look at the dimensions, right field at Target is awfully short, and even shorter when you take the overhang into account (not complaining I think it’s cool, take a look if you have a chance). My point here is that the only field that matters to Dozier is LF, and they’re pretty much identical, and yes, everyone shifted him. If we had a few more guys get on base, they wouldn’t have been able to do it as much.
As far as his other weaknesses are concerned, I’m not sure I know what you mean. If he hit 12 HRs a year, I wouldn’t want him either. The thing is he doesn’t hit 12 hrs a year, he should hit 30ish. That’s what makes him valuable. Especially that kind of power coming from 2B. After all, he hit more home runs as a second baseman than anyone in the history of the AL In the history of the AL (repeated for effect, couldn’t help it)
Look, I’m not trying to sell him to anybody. I don’t want your guy and you don’t want ours. We’re pretty much in agreement. Let’s hope management reads our posts.
park factors are of course a big factor. Mel Ott tailored his swing for the PoloGrounds where the right field fence was only 257 feet away. Ott hit 323 HR’s at home…only 188 on the road.
From the Braves perspective, I could see trading Ozzie Albies and a good pitching prospect, Touki Toussaint and a reliever Armando Rivero or Jose A. Ramirez for Brian Dozier and Mitch Garver. I would try to play Brian Dozier at Third Base.
Twins to trading prospects yet alone there best catching prospect who is almost mlb ready
At the end LA will walk and give into kinsler and extend him for a year or two. Or go for forsythe of the rays. Or the twins will stop playing around and give into the fair offer. They’re not stupid and I don’t blame them for trying to hit a grandslam with a trade I would too. But at some point you have to realize how much risk there is for you and accept the fair offer or lose big in the future at best come out with what you could’ve got in the winter.
And anyone that is saying it’s a 1 for 1 is just stupid dodgers trades are usually 100 for 100 I’d see the dodgers giving up 3 guys. Just that those 3 guys aren’t gonna all be all out top player like the twins are dreaming of. Ahaha
This really seems like a trade better suited for the trade deadline. The Dodgers are trying to buy RH power on the cheap and the Twins are trying to raid a future staff of arms. Both are reasonable asks. Both come with reasonable risks if a trade isn’t completed. We’ll get a better of understanding of who Dozier is. Let’s start under the assumption that he is a very good player because he is. That being said who is he. Is he a high power low obp guy? Is he the guy who put up a star type ops ( in which he dwarfed his previous OPS’s) that he showed last year or is he the previous three year guy? He’s not a pure hitter we know that. He is an extreme fly ball pull type hitter. He Ks a good amount. He’s going to see regression regardless, and he will also be affected by the good ole west coast marine layer. I think we know he can run a little and play decent defense. We know his floor is a nice 25 hr guy that has some pop against lefties. If his production mirrors last year he is a super star worthy of a huge prospect package if it mirrors his previous three years he is a very very good player. Approaches change (Bautista,Turner, Murphy, etc.) and guys click so it’s hard to tell which player he is. It just seems like both clubs are fit for a match but hold different opinions. Btw can we please also cool down as using WAR as the only discussion points. People use different WAR projections to fit their own arguments e.g. fangraphs is not as high on Dozier as baseball reference is.
Excellent post. It is the type deal (between a win now team and rebuilding team) done at the deadline more often than not. Basically because it’s often hard to know which your team is going to be in the off season. But here you pretty much know, or at least the Twins (in an effort to get more for the player) are willing to concede they’re a rebuilding team. If the offer package is likely to be the same at the deadline as now, then the Twins shouldn’t do the deal now, but the Dodgers should. Not only do the Dodgers get an additional 4 months of use (while the traded prospects would still be in the minors), but they guard against the risk of injury or poor performance by those prospects (you point out that we’ll know more about Dozier at the deadline, and, to an extent, that’s true – but his value is nowhere near as volatile at this stage, particularly on the downside, as that of the prospects the Dodgers might trade) and the risk that a ridiculously pro-seller market materializes at the deadline as it often does.
I wasn’t necessarily referring to the volatility of Dozier, because for the most part you know what you are getting from him. I was referring to idea of recency bias. Dozier is essentially valued in such high regard this offseason because of his ridiculous second half. But if you look at his first half it’s easy to believe that is more of the player he is. Which is a good player just not a guy who is to be considered a super star thus lending himself to an outrageously expensive package that the twins may be looking for. I also think in terms of a guy like DeLeon it was a confluence of events that hurt his stock in a lot of eyes. That can be blamed on both the Dodgers and the player. The planned to yoyo the guy but based on injury prone guys they brought in that planned backfired. Thus forcing them to rush him back. Why I think the Twins should move Dozier at this point is whatever leverage they have at this point may be diminished significantly if let’s say other 2b hit the market. That possibility seems inevitable as I think the Rays have no chance of competing. Why the Dodgers should make this move is clear. I think the Dodgers offer is based on the market on who they think the guy is. The twins are going to base their package on the highest value point. Personally I’m ok if this doesn’t occur. I’m more of a Forsythe fan for a multitude of reasons.
Would you say angels farm is as good as the dodgers ? – vision blue la?
I have no idea what the offer or ask is. But even without recency bias, taking into account all of his 3 full seasons as a full year starter, and the nature of his tools, I believe Dozier profiles to be an All-Star level 2b going forward for at least 2-3 years (the balance of his prime). He may not get to 40 homers again, but his OPS generally should stabilize closer to last season than his prior two. Thus, I think the Dodgers need to go get this guy. If it takes 2 elite SP prospects, so be it. But I don’t think they will get him; i think they’ll slow play their way out of it. AF still thinks he’s the GM at TB, where overpaying in prospects is unthinkable, but missing a rare opportunity is OK. Stupid for the Dodgers to operate that way. The circumstances that make a player like Dozier available at all don’t occur that often. If AF misses out again and settles for some pedestrian talent as a stop-gap (the TB approach), then his successor can thank him for all the nice prospects he didn’t trade.
Of course, if you think Forsythe is better, then I think you’ll likely be happy. To me, Forsythe is closer to a utility guy than a starter, and certainly not the dynamic player that Dozier is. Not sure I’d give up DeLeon alone for Forsythe.
Slow play it sure but if there’s no market why bid against yourself. Friedman has shown a willingness to pay in prospect terms just not necessarily with his own prospects whether you agree or not. He’s also shown a different approach in terms of FA this offseason. I think we saw a huge step taken in the Reddick/Hill trade however you want to judge the trade. Is Dozier an exciting player sure. Is he dynamic sure. But in terms of a pure hitter. I think Forsythe has started to establish himself as a better pure hitter maybe with somewhat of a limited power profile compared to Dozier. Now granted we can profile him as a late bloomer. But obviously time is going to tell on both fronts. I find it extremely interesting because Dozier is a polarizing player for whatever reason. In terms of power Dozier is really not to be questioned it’s there and everybody knows it. How that translate to dodger stadium who knows. We’ve seen it play pretty true in the day but at night it’s somewhat of a different story especially now that it’s finally starting to rain a little. In terms of his obp now that’s a question that sincerely has to be asked.
I’m not so much attached to the younger pitching prospects as I view most of them as being far away but along the lines from Colletti to Zaidi they’ve been pretty spot on with who to hold tightly. But yes I guess like the polarizing Dozier it’s a matter of personal preference.
Obviously with Hill, Wood, Ryu, Kaz, and McCarthy all liable to go down at any moment it’s easy to see why their MLB ready pitching is huge. That’s not even to mention Kersh you never know and Maeda was pretty fortunate to get through a whole year. Adding onto that the fact Maeda never consistently went on a regular schedule in the second half. He also never proved he could consistently make it through a lineup more than twice. Sometimes the best trades are the ones everyone clamors for but the ones that aren’t made. To me a majority of the staff is still a ticking time bomb. So unless they can somehow steal Dozier it seems like a trade deadline trade is more likely. If you were to ask me though all things being equal Kinsler would be the guy to splurge on but obviously extenuating circumstances are in play.
I don’t get how shoemaker and calhoun are bad for a rebuilding team. Both young, future stars (although shoemaker is a ROY and Calhoun is an all star quality player.) One of them with Skaggs is a great deal.
All three all already in Arb. Shoemaker and Skaggs are both super two status. Calhoun was a super two going through he second round of arb. So the twins aren’t getting the cheap years of control. Calhoun will essentially match what Dozier is making. Them wanting 6 years of prospect control makes more sense seeing as that’s within the time period they expect to compete.
He said projected standings….: just don’t even reply not worth it
Angel fans are not very smart you guys are so far from contending and have such a bad farm probably worst in baseball and still wanna make trades like this
I think the Twins want more than Deleon for Dozier, so I think the Dodgers will finally change course and trade with the Yanks for Castro. I think Castro and Gardner for Deleon, Wood, and DeJong. That would open the door for Frazier and down the road Torres for the Yanks and the Dodgers get their veteran lead off player in Gardner and their second basemen in Castro. This move puts the Dodgers as the top team in the NL next year.
Were looking to upgrade ..
That’s a ridiculous trade and one sided on the Yankees aspect. It’s just not going to happen.
The Castro trade was suggested on the MLB Network and both of the experts thought it was a good idea.
Except when you look into they want a guy capable of power against LHP. 14 HRs in his 7 years doesn’t scream such power. You also have to consider they are also taking on big salary. What makes Dozier so appealing is his pretty cheapish contract. Them taking on another 21M over the next two years plus an extra year of Castro plus trading DeLeon makes it extremely less appealing. So if they were willing to take on such salary Braun would make extremely more sense. Seeing as the Dodgers could wash some salary and he actually provides RH power.
The angels are a projected to finish as the #1 wild card team and 2 games behind the astros for the AL west. How is this not a contending team? Look at the projected standings before calling angels fans not smart for wanting a second basemen to take them to the playoffs.
Projected standings ?? Lmfaoooooooooo I’ve never heard someone base a real life situation with something like that projected standing in checking to see if you really said that
Fine when the angels get into the playoffs and knock whatever team you like out you can remember my comments.
I don’t mind the angels I’m not a dodger fan that hates them I’m just being real they are in a bad situation all around
I don’t mind the angels….. but the fans are dumb they won’t contend (although there is a good chance) and their farm system will never get better! Wow dude if you don’t mind them why do you criticize everything about them?
Because you said something so stupid
The Angels farm system is just as strong as the Dodgers right now.
I don’t know if you’re joking or being serious or just a troll ” DOGERS FARM IS JUST AS BAD AS THE ANGELS”
I know I’m sorry I looked at the projected standings, saw that were projected to get to the playoffs and wanted Dozier to help them go farther than the wild card. Stupid Right???/
Not stupid at all. From what I’ve been reading Haha hasn’t been adding anything but bile. You guys have as much to trade as the Dodgers.
You’re telling me this but you’re not telling me who they have tell me , and tradefrom those players then . Why do you have an angel fan trading from major league talent instead of the farm ?.. oh that’s right cause you don’t have one all you are is a troll everyone has called you out on being a troll in this chat
And this poor gullible sob halo fan is buying into everything you’re saying he doesn’t get you’re just a troll
THANK YOU!! If the dodgers can get him with a farm system almost as bad as the angels, why can’t we get him?
I hate using this argument because most of the times it doesn’t matter but in this case it does. The dodgers have 6 top 100 prospects. The Angels have none. The Angels system is ranked at the bottom. Not trying to be disrespectful but you can’t compare the Angels and Dodgers system.
Yeah at times top 100 doesn’t matter but the angels literally have no name that has recognition or that catches attention top 100 or not
By which metric is the Angels farm system on par with Dodger system? I haven’t seen a single ranking or publication putting their systems even remotely close to each other. Dodgers are consistently at the top and Angels at the bottom of prospect rankings.
A troll told him they were and he bought into it
Hahaha(whatever) Go away we’re done with your opinions.
Dude your a clown you don’t see where your team really stands it’s pointless talking to people like you at least twins are going dozier is worth this or that is reasonable it’s in the ballpark it’s not on another planet. The fact that your saying the dodgers top 5 farm is equal to angels 30 everyone in baseball talks about how the angels have nobody tell me who do you have . You’re buying into what this clown is trolling about you’re so gullible
Haha, please learn the difference between possessing something, “YOUR” and contracting something, “YOU ARE” becomes “YOU’RE”. I’ll give you an example: YOUR starting second baseman is a guy called Kike and the sum total of your off-season moves means that YOU’RE not any better than you were in 2016. It doesn’t really matter what the Giants do if YOU’RE back at the golf course while others play in November. Let’s see: 2016, lost in NLCS. 2015, lost in NLDS. 2014, lost in NLDS. 2013, lost in NLCS. 2012, not in postseason. 2011, not in postseason. 2010, not in postseason. In other words, the Kershaw era has been forgettable unless YOUR team jumps through this window.
Just trying to squeeze a bit more bile out of haha.
Kinda cute how he calls other people trolls, routinely says it’s pointless/useless for him to respond, yet does it without end. Posts not often based in fact, or even rationalization. I guess we need to bow down because he FEELS it so much.
It would be nice if the next time he says Byeeeeee he would actually leave, or at least be something other than a whiny 14 year old.
What are you even saying. Can you properly use words?
Inactivebill is politely pointing out how grateful we should be that you were here today to correct our misunderstandings of how a front office operates, evaluates talent, and ranks prospects. Thank you.
Mi no spiki inglish
Tell me how if your farm is so good you had to throw major league talent in a make believe trade proposal instead of players from that farm of yours you claim is as good as the dodgers??? I’m waiting
Dude do you know what sarcasm is? I’m the clown? Look at your name. Clowns laugh a lot.
Hahahahahahahaha what team do you like man?
You’re not answering my question who goes to the twins from your farm in a dozier trade?
Easy send the twins the infamous PTBNL’S (except never name them) then you promise to sponsor one of the Pholad movies cuz Arte has some friends in Hollywood, throw in a couple rally monkeys and you have a deal….except wait these aren’t the Terrace Ryan days so you might have to have value go back in return, in all honesty to me it comes down to whether the dodgers JUST want to be competitive for a very long time OR if they want to go for a ring and win it all, both are sound goals either way
Terry Ryan
Dozier is a solid bat would be fit for Dodgers
Agree with hahaha angels system not better than Dodgers
No logical person would say that the angels farm system is better than the dodgers farm system.
I truly wonder how many people here actually watch baseball instead of pretending to me experts by looking at some stupid metrics and come to conclusions from there?!
Interesting question. Can’t speak for others but I played for many years until my elbow gave out. Still have season tickets (A’s) and just added some seats at a minor team nearby. I use them to introduce a lot of people to the game. However they come to it, appreciation of the game is a good thing.
I played in college and watch pretty much every day during the season. I’m still in withdrawal even though I watched the worst team in MLB all of last year.
I don’t want to hurt your feelings, but stats and metrics are pretty much the only way to establish the value of a player other than actually being in the clubhouse.
@inactivebill – false. If stats are metrics are the only way to determine value without being in the clubhouse then why do scouts exist?
I also played college and there are plenty of ex-college players who can’t evaluate talent but they know the ins-and-outs, hows-and-whys of the game and watch a different game than the average person.
Certain data is really good and helps tell a story but other metrics (i.e. WAR) don’t include plenty of variables that are important in the evaluation process. Analytic data provides additional information to assist in the evaluation process. If it’s the be-all-end-all as you say then scouts, GM, etc wouldn’t have jobs because a trained monkey can look at metrics and simply target the highest rated players. The A’s have how many rings under Beane?
Baseballdeez, I’m sorry, I should have said front office instead of clubhouse.
The general gist of the situation
1. The twins don’t need to trade dozier. The on field product is terrible now, trading your best player for prospects won’t help that. 2. They are setting a hard deadline not o seenly to field the final/best offers, but to also give dozier the peice of mind that he won’t be traded now up to around the trade deadline. So it won’t get in his head and possible hinder his trade stock. 3. This (potential) trade would be the first big move by Falvey. The Castro signing was solid, but we couldn’t go anywhere but up from Suzuki so nothing major there. So Falvey isn’t going to (and shouldn’t) give an inch on his demands because this could be a defining moment in his young career. 4. Trade or no trade, the twins at best will win 80 games this year. At worst, another dumpster fire season with 90+ loses. As for the dodgers, around 90 wins +-5 and a early playoff exit. So it’s in Friedman’s court to decide if Dozier is worth the risk and pony up.
Oh, hardly. You make it sound so one-sided, when no deal ever happens that way. Lowering the TCO for the Twins and banking a player they can use for years to come is precisely the kind of move a team in rebuilding mode makes. Presumably the Dodgers have already made an offer for Dozier, so I think you are showing the ball being in the wrong court.
It is one sided. The twins aren’t losing dozier to free agency until after the 2018 season. The don’t have a logjam at 2nd base. The only reason to trade is if they get the prospects they desire in return. The first offer clearly wasn’t up to what they believe they should be compensated for a player like dozier so instead of playing this game with the dodgers until spring they said cut the crap and give us your final offer. So yes it would appear that the ball is in the dodgers court.
Not really. This is essentially an auction, and in an auction, the price only goes up with multiple bidders. Since nobody else seems to be bidding on Dozier, you are expecting the Dodgers to bid against themselves. I’m not a huge fan of this FO but I don’t think they are anywhere close to that dim. At some point the Twins will have to decide if the best offer they get is one they can accept. Presumably the Dodgers have made their offer. Passing is always an option.
So no, the ball certainly appears to be in the Twins’ court. It’s “all in fair warning” as the auctioneer says before he bangs his hammer.
Bargaining isn’t like tennis because neither player has to hit a ball back, That and one player can return a ball, and then hit another right behind it. The game isn’t over until the deadline comes, or Dozier walks to the Dodgers side of the net. Besides, no one will know who won for years, and it won’t have anything to do with the Twins’ or Dodgers’ management, or even the players traded.
The auction analogy doesn’t decide who’s in control either. The bidder can raise his own bid, and the auction has a reserve. Neither knows the outcome, and both control their own actions.
It works as well as any analogy. In an auction a seller can pass an item if they don’t get a bid they like. Basically this means they’ve set their minimum selling price above the current market value. So they can either accept the bid or wait and hope the market improves. Maybe it does, maybe it doesn’t. That’s the risk you take by passing on the bid you have in hand now for one you might get later. Expecting a bidder to increase their bid when they don’t see any other cards in the air is just not realistic. That seems to be where things stand now, assuming the Dodgers made their bid.
of they can just not sell for a discount and they have a all-star 2b for the next 2 years for cheap, who is going to help lead a very young team in the clubhouse and on the field
I’m not contending that it’s not a good analogy, I’m contesting the implication that the ball is in the Twins court, and not the Dodgers court. The Twins can lower their price, or the Dodgers can increase theirs. I doubt the Dodgers bid is affected by other offers any more than the perceived value of their trade chips vs the perceived value of Dozier..
The risk isn’t that the market will go up or down, the risk is that Dozier won’t give them as much value as the prospect’s would. Frankly that can’t be known. If the Twins decide not to sell, it’s because they think that Dozier’s value to their team is greater than the Dodgers’ prospects. The opposite of that position applies just as much to the Dodgers. They have the offer of a sale in hand, and it’s not realistic for them to expect the Twins to sell simply because the Twins don’t like any of the offers they’ve received. I’m pretty sure they value their prospects at greater than market value, otherwise there would be other teams raising their cards and offering more than the Twins have. I think all of the MLB GMs know what the deal is.
Purchasers in negotiated sales are often required to increase their offer. It’s not just realistic, it’s the norm. Car sales and real estate sales are good examples.
Again, they both have the ability to complete the sale. If they don’t, it’s just as much of a risk to the Dodgers as it is to the Twins.
When the market is only prepared to pay you so much for an item, it’s the market telling you the current value of the item. You might chose not to sell, but the current value is as real as it gets, not a discount.
Yes, and it’s a clear indication of De Leon’s value too. Obviously it’s not as high as they think it is or they’d have Kinsler by now.
A really poor choice for an example. The talk of the Tigers trading Kinsler has been almost nonexistent. The Dodgers are on his no-trade list and he’s been upfront in demanding an extension before he’d agree to waive it, so that’s what you call major obstacles. And that’s even before we even get to who is the better player, as if that’s in any dispute.
So no, what isn’t happening with Kinsler has nothing whatsoever to do with DeLeon’s trade value.
It’s a good example.
Talk about Kinsler/Dodgers is only second to the talk of Dozier/Dodgers. Do a search. Kinsler has said he will be willing to go to the Dodgers for an extension, If the thing holding the trade back is the extension, the real problem is either questionable durability or money. Based on Dodger valuation, they could trade De Leon and certainly the Tigers would eat salary. Same with Forsythe. Surely they have a trade that they could work out with De Leon as a piece. Where are the takers?
As an owner I’d hope that my GM was doing a bit of due diligence, and I’d be willing to bet he’s talked to a bunch of teams about 2B because there are quite a few decent 2B out there. That’s why the Twins are talking with the Dodgers
Either there aren’t many takers that value De Leon, or Dozier is the best deal.
So yes, it’s evidence of the value of De Leon, and it indicates the Dodgers could be over-valuing their prospects.
Kinsler is a very poor example for the reason I stated and you simply restated and drew the opposite conclusion. The extension would absolutely be a major obstacle if for no other reason then we are talking about his age 37+ seasons. We have zero evidence the Dodgers offered anything for him at all, let alone, DeLeon and in reality the only trade in which DeLeon’s name has ever come up is for Dozier. Further, at $11.5m per, the Tigers would have no motivation whatsoever to eat salary on Kinsler. So not only have you failed to prove anything, you haven’t even supplied any evidence to support your argument.
You said: “The talk of the Tigers trading Kinsler has been almost nonexistent” and I showed you that not only was it existent, but that the Dodgers had actually talked with the Dodgers about Kinsler.
Dozier is going to be paid $15 mil over the next 2 years. I think it’s reasonable to say that his actual value as a free agent would be at least $11 mil a year range, for a total of $22 mil over the same span. so he provides equity of roughly $7 mil for the Twins..
the Dodgers want to trade De Leon for Dozier, so they estimate his worth to be roughly $7 mil.
The Tigers want to ditch payroll and get younger, see: espn.com/blog/mlb/rumors/post/_/id/29911/mlb-rumor…
So they are willing to trade Kinsler. Kinsler is owed $21 mil, and would likely extend for $8ish million, so the Dodgers would pay him $29 mil over 3 years. Net of De Leon’s $7 mil equals $22 mil for 3 years, that is if the Tigers think De Leon is worth $7 mil. So, Kinsler would be $7 mil a year for 3 years, and there is absolutely no trend showing that Kinsler has started any kind of decline in skills..
Many Dodger fans want Kinsler more than Dozier, maybe even you, so how is $7 mil a year for Kinsler a major obstacle? That is unless the Tigers don’t think De Leon is worth $7 mil, or that the Dodgers may want too much for any of the other prospects that they’d be willing to part with.
And you don’t honestly think De Leon’s name didn’t come up in the conversations between the Dodgers and the Tigers do you?
I didn’t restate your argument, I contradicted your argument, I didn’t try to prove anything, and neither did you. What evidence have you provided?
“When the market is only prepared to pay you so much for an item, it’s the market telling you the current value of the item. You might chose not to sell, but the current value is as real as it gets, not a discount.”
On a basic level, yes that’s true. But that’s one of the many reasons I have been saying a deal doesn’t get done. Dozier’s *current* return isn’t as high as it *SHOULD* be because there aren’t enough contending teams seeking a second baseman. That doesn’t mean he’s not actually worth more than what the Twins are being offered because you have to account for future value as well, especially when the Twins aren’t in a position of need-to-sell. if all they are getting is low offers, there’s no reason for them to not go ahead and hold onto him until at least the deadline if not later.
Soooooo your argument is the Dodgers/Tigers have spoke using Kinsler and De Leon in the same conversation and you say this happened because espn wrote an article 3 months ago saying the Tigers want to get younger and cut payroll? An article that didn’t even mention Kinsler’s name? Then you state there’s zero evidence of Kinsler trending downward so the Trade should be all good then? Reality is every player has X amount of years before their performance dwindles. Kinsler turns 35 during next season I’m pretty sure over the course of his remaining contract his skill set will deteriorate from present day.
You literally don’t it. And you keep proving it given you already stated previously metrics and stats are the only way to evaluate a player’s value in today’s world. Straight hogwash
Yes, For the most part, I think you’ve summed things up.
And yes, stats and metrics are by far the best way to determine a player’s value.
Oh, except for the hogwash part.
Dodgers are ridiculous as always. Too cozy with their prospects. I hope they stick with their weak proposal, Dozier gets traded to another team (or the Twins keep him) and the Dodgers fall short again next season. They’ll waste the best seasons that Kershaw has left and fall back into obscurity with a mammoth payroll. just because they wouldn’t pay fair market for a key piece that they need.
Paolo
You must be one of those typical fans that whined and complained when the Dodgers didn’t give up Urias/Seager for Hamels in past years. Maybe the FO is too “cozy” with their prospects because just like Seager and Urias last season, the upcoming prospects will help the team out in the long run. Willing to part with De Leon seems just about right for me. The twins asking for Bellinger, Alvarez, Buehler is too steep.
If it’s too steep to go beyond De Leon, Dodger fans have to be willing to go into the 2017 season exactly as they were last year, without improvement. Twins fans will remember – even if an entirely new front office doesn’t – that one prospect arm is not enough for an established big league regular. Meyer for Span, May and Worley for Revere, with only Trevor May to show for two starting OFs. The new front office looks like New School, and they are trying to build a pipeline of arms. If it doesn’t happen with Dozier to the Dodgers, c’est la vie.
Note to Twins: Don’t trade Dozier. Don’t even think about it. Unless LA is offering Kershaw, just stand pat.