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The Cardinals remain in a strong position despite missing the playoffs in 2016, and they’ll enter the offseason hoping to add an outfielder and to sort through their starting pitching depth.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Mike Leake, SP: $68MM through 2020 (includes $5MM buyout on 2021 mutual option)
- Matt Carpenter, IF: $39.75MM through 2019 (includes $2MM buyout on 2020 team option)
- Adam Wainwright, SP: $39.5MM through 2018
- Jedd Gyorko, IF: $29MM through 2019 (includes $1M buyout on 2020 team option; the Padres are paying a portion of the deal)
- Kolten Wong, IF: $24.25MM through 2020 (includes $1M buyout on 2021 team option)
- Yadier Molina, C: $16MM through 2017 (includes $2MM buyout on 2018 mutual option)
- Jhonny Peralta, IF: $10MM through 2017
- Lance Lynn, SP: $7.5MM through 2017
- Zach Duke, RP: $5.5MM through 2017
- Jonathan Broxton, RP: $3.75MM through 2017
- Brayan Pena, C: $2.5MM through 2017
- Aledmys Diaz, SS: $2MM through 2017
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; link to MLBTR projections)
- Trevor Rosenthal (4.058) – $6.3MM
- Matt Adams (4.033) – $2.8MM
- Seth Maness (3.154) – $1.6MM
- Kevin Siegrist (3.116) – $1.9MM
- Carlos Martinez (3.073) – $5.3MM
- Michael Wacha (3.062) – $3.2MM
- Non-tender candidates: None
Club Options
- Matt Holliday, OF: $17MM or a $1M buyout (the Cardinals are expected to decline the option)
- Jaime Garcia, SP: $12MM or a $500K buyout (the Cardinals have exercised the option)
- Jordan Walden, RP: $5.25MM or $250K buyout (the Cardinals have declined the option)
- Seung-hwan Oh, RP: $2.75MM (option already vested because Oh finished more than 30 games in 2016)
Free Agents
Cardinals Depth Chart; Cardinals Payroll Information
In 2016, the Cardinals missed the playoffs for the first time since 2010, winning only (or “only”) 86 games. The team said goodbye to Matt Holliday after the season, beginning what’s likely to be an organizational transition from a core of Holliday, Adam Wainwright, Yadier Molina, Jhonny Peralta and Matt Carpenter to one that’s much younger.
Of course, this seems to be a common refrain for the Cardinals, who have had winning seasons in 16 of the last 17 years, transitioning from their previous core of Albert Pujols, Chris Carpenter, Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen without a hitch. Among the Cardinals’ younger players, there were positive signs in 2016, as Aledmys Diaz, Stephen Piscotty, Carlos Martinez, Alex Reyes and Randal Grichuk all contributed solid value. The Cardinals will therefore keep trying to do what they always do, replacing good players with more good ones while making perhaps one big acquisition each winter. They’ll face an uphill battle as the divisional rival of a brilliant Cubs team, but they have way too much talent not to strive for the postseason.
With Molina and Brayan Pena (who returned from the DL in September after missing much of the season to knee issues) under contract for next season, the catcher position is mostly set. It wouldn’t hurt the Cardinals to find a solid third backstop in case of another DL stint for Molina or Pena, however, since both have significant injury histories and aren’t getting any younger. (22-year-old Carson Kelly is currently the Cardinals’ next man up, and he could benefit from a bit more seasoning at Triple-A.) A lucrative minor league deal (along the lines of the one the Red Sox gave Sandy Leon last offseason) to lure a solid third option might be a good move.
Likewise, the Cardinals won’t need much infield help. Jedd Gyorko — who swatted 30 home runs after being acquired in what amounted to a salary dump by the Padres — was a revelation for the Cards last season, and with Carpenter, Diaz and Peralta flanking him and other capable situational options at various positions (including Matt Adams, Kolten Wong and Greg Garcia), the Cards have significant depth.
If the Cardinals are going to make a big move to add offense, they’ll probably grab an outfielder. The loss of former top prospect Oscar Taveras in a tragic offseason accident two years back still looms large for the franchise. Piscotty can be counted on for everyday at-bats, and Grichuk has probably shown enough to warrant everyday play as well, even though his on-base percentages will likely continue to underwhelm. Tommy Pham has proven as least modestly useful as well. With both Holliday and Brandon Moss coming off the payroll, though, the Cardinals are probably short a big bat, and the outfield is the only obvious place to put one.
The Cardinals are reportedly most interested in acquiring a center fielder, and might prefer to do so on the trade market. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch identifies Charlie Blackmon, A.J. Pollock and Adam Eaton as possibilities (although, as our own Steve Adams notes, the White Sox probably won’t be inclined to trade Eaton). Of the other two, Pollock is the only righty, and from my perspective, a right-handed hitter might be a slightly better fit. The Cards’ lineup is fairly balanced, but they already have plenty of left-handed hitting in Carpenter, Adams, Wong and Garcia, and their team OPS was 35 points better against righties than lefties last season. Pollock is the better fit from a fielding perspective, too — advanced statistics suggest Grichuk is a better defensive center fielder than Blackmon, and it’s unclear whether the alignment of Blackmon in center and Grichuk in a corner would provide enough of a defensive upgrade to justify the Cardinals’ reported focus on center fielders rather than corner outfielders.
Of course, there have yet been no meaningful indications that the Diamondbacks are interested in trading Pollock, and they might prefer to wait to deal him until he recovers value after an injury-marred 2016 campaign. Other names could come into play as well, and perhaps the Cardinals could also turn to a relatively robust outfield free agent market, which features the likes of Ian Desmond and Carlos Gomez, both of whom are relatively young and play quality center field defense. 30-year-old Dexter Fowler, too, will be available as an even higher-value target.
The Cardinals could also circle back and re-sign Moss, although Goold notes that Moss seems to be down their list of priorities right now. They didn’t extend him a qualifying offer, which makes sense — he hit 28 home runs last season, but with a low batting average (.225) and on-base percentage (.300). Re-signing Moss would certainly not be the worst idea, although it’s easy to understand the organization’s reasons for wanting to look elsewhere first, given the variety of potential alternatives.
The Cardinals appear set to welcome Wainwright, Carlos Martinez, Mike Leake and perhaps Michael Wacha (who the Cards say they still view as a starter despite a 2016 season marred by health concerns) back to their rotation next year, with talented newcomer Alex Reyes also likely set to receive significant playing time. They can also probably count on getting something from Lance Lynn, who missed the entire 2016 season after having Tommy John surgery but was pitching in Triple-A by the end of the year. There are other options as well, like Luke Weaver, Mike Mayers, Tyler Lyons, Marco Gonzales and Tim Cooney. (The last three of those pitchers are returning from injury, and Gonzales and probably Cooney are better bets to contribute later in the season rather than earlier.)
That depth left the Cardinals with a decision regarding 30-year-old Jaime Garcia, whose $12MM option they recently exercised. Given Garcia’s relative youth, his experience as a starter, and his outstanding ground-ball rate (56.5% for his career), he’s worth that kind of scratch, so the Cards’ call wasn’t a surprise. They could still try to deal him, though, and given the weak free agent market for starting pitching, Garcia would probably command at least a decent return.
Garcia alone wouldn’t be enough to acquire the sort of outfield talent the Cardinals are likely to seek, however. Perhaps an alternate route would be for the Cardinals to keep Garcia and trade another starting pitcher for a good outfielder. There is no indication the Cards are considering such a possibility, but it’s worth keeping in mind, since keeping a competent starter in Garcia and dangling a young, controllable arm like Wacha could be a way to get trade talks going. There’s precedent for such a trade, too, in the form of the November 2014 deal that sent Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins to Atlanta for Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden. Dealing Peralta could be another option, since the Cardinals have infield depth and Peralta only has one year left on his contract.
In the bullpen, Korean closer Seung-hwan Oh will be back after a brilliant first season in the US, and Kevin Siegrist, 2015 Rule 5 pick Matthew Bowman and ground-ball specialist Seth Maness (who had UCL surgery in August but could be ready in time for Spring Training if all goes well) are all likely to return after 2016 seasons that were generally effective. Jonathan Broxton, too, had a passable first season in St. Louis and should be back in 2017.
Trevor Rosenthal, though, walked a way-too-high 6.5 batters per nine, suffering through a shoulder injury and ultimately losing his closer job to Oh. Rosenthal is set to be paid a hefty $6.3MM this season, but the Cardinals would seem to have no choice but to tender him, since he’s only 26, throws in the high 90s and still struck out 12.5 batters per nine innings even in what was otherwise a terrible season. Zach Duke, meanwhile, had Tommy John surgery in mid-October, and the Cardinals declined Walden’s option after two injury-riddled years. It’s likely the Cardinals can get some relief mileage out of some of their less established arms (including Sam Tuivailala and Miguel Socolovich) and starting depth. Someone like Lyons or Gonzales could ultimately replace the left-handed Duke. It wouldn’t be surprising, though, if the Cardinals sought out a veteran bullpen arm (either left-handed or right-handed).
The Cardinals’ offseason, then, could follow a variety of possible paths. The organization could potentially be punished for former scouting director Chris Correa’s hacking of the Astros’ database, and it’s unclear whether that punishment could affect the team’s drafting or something else. For now, though, the Cardinals will proceed as if they’ll have no restrictions. While there’s potential for the Cards to pull off a blockbuster, given the team’s pitching depth and outfield needs, the franchise seems unlikely to veer off its current path, and they’ll enter 2017 hoping to field yet another competitive club.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Easy question.
Can Zach Duke be DFA’d while he’s rehabbing an injury he obtained while pitching for the team that wants to get him off their 40 Man roster due to his injury?
Would still have to pay him… Duke will go onto 60 day DL once ST starts..
Most injured players can be outrighted to the minors during a period of time beginning on the day after the conclusion of the MLB regular season up until reserve lists are filed in November, Dukes is a veteran and would elect free agency. The Cardinals would be responsible for the remainder of Duke’s contract.
It’s too bad he was already given a guaranteed contract for 2017, otherwise they could just non-tender him.
I like trading for Pollock but I’m interested to see if management surprises everyone with an even bigger fish. I have the feeling Mo is going to make a splash for once with Holliday leaving. He’s usually a low-risk operator but I feel like the Cubs winning puts pressure on him to break his model with one high-risk move.
Peralta was a HIGH RISK move.. IK most Cards fans are salty over MM getting an extension..
I trust Mo to build a solid team… 2016 team had plenty of talent… Just to many players had career worst seasons in 2016. Waino, Garcia, Rosie, Wacha and Lynn was injured for whole year..
Add some talent and clean up the fundamentals and Cards will compete again in 17
Bigger fish than Pollock? So Trout or maybe McCutchen.
Trout isn’t going anywhere let alone STL
You can make a point that teams like the Cards, Mets, and Giants will be better off with players like Desmond and Fowler than a player like Cespedes. They can get both players for that price.
Once again the Cards have tons of money available. After missing on Heyward and Price last year lets see if they spend a little this year
Like to see them go hard after Gurriel. That’s cash only… with the unknown penalties yet to be handed down..
Mo has flexibility to fill holes..
Getting Lourdes Gurriel would be an excellent start to the off season. Put him at 3rd on the field and 2nd in batting order. Would still have a lot of flexibility left to trade for a CF in leadoff spot.
Why? Where do you play Wong, Carpenter, Peralta, And Gyerko if they were to do this?
MM barely wants to play Wong as it is.. Wong has upside but needs to find his consistency at plate. Gurriel isn’t ML ready he would require seasoning at AA at least for a few months… Having to much talent isn’t a bad thing imo. idk if Cards are willing to spend enuf to secure Gurriel though. They are in a spot where they can deploy those assets to add high end talent though.
Wong should be the 2nd baseman for the next several years. Carpenter can play at 1st. Peralta is trade bait as his contract was front loaded and should be easier to move. Gyorko is a super utilty and can play anywhere except CF, but give him 3rd until Gurriel is ready. Garcia, Peralta, Adams become part of a trade for someone to keep CF warm until Bader arrives next year. 2018 is where the money from the new TV deal should be spent in FA, not this year.
If you get rid of Adams, you lose your 1B defense and some good offense. Carp is lousy an any IF position and he wasn’t too hot with bat at the end of 2016 either. If he has to play – play him at 3B, Wong at 2B, Adams at 1B and Diaz at SS. Loss of Moss creates holes at LF, RF and 1B.
While I really like Big City, especially that HR against Kershaw in 2014 playoffs, to say he was better than Carp at 1st means that you didn’t compare their stats for 2016 (links below). Carp “can” play 1st, 2ndor 3rd base but should just focus on 1st. Jose Martinez is a serviceable 4th outfielder that does play 1st as well (he had 9 steals at Memphis too). Tommy Pham can play all 3 positions. So not a huge hole from Moss leaving. The more I look at Kiermaier, the more I like. He is a great defender in CF, gets on base, and had 21 steals (St Louis had 35 as a team with no one over 7). If they could get him and Casey Gillespie (should easily be a September call up for 1st base in 2017 and his job in 2018) I think the Cards could add a couple of W’s in the win column to possibly get in the playoffs.
Carp Stats – http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8090&position=2B/3B#fielding
Adams Stats – http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9393&position=1B#fielding
Fowler would be a coup for them
& hurt the Cubs
hes going to be looking for 5 years @ $16 mil though
in this market.
Mo wont surrender the pick for Fowler.. Fowler isnt worth it…
That would help the Cubs. They would create a spot for Almora, and get a pick while the Cardinals would lose a pick. Add to that the fact that whoever signs Fowler is going to regret the contract as speed does not age well and he is on the wrong side of 30.
Check his stats. About equal to Grich.
I would love to see Pollock in a Cardinals uniform, but I don’t think the D-Backs want to trade him. Blackmon is an improvement in offense, but defense isn’t an improvement, which is what Mo said he wanted to improve on. Mo usually goes for a guy that’s not even on my radar, so I can’t wait to see who he gets
What would it take to get Pollock? Weaver, Flaherty and Siegrist?
That looks like a good deal to me. I’m not sure what Arizona wants, do they want pitchers or hitters?
A young catcher for Castillo’s replacement next year(kelly) and Bullpen help. Everyone could use some Starting Pitching.
Kelly is Yadis replacement. He isn’t going to be in any trades.
How about Gyorko, Garcia, and a minor prospect? I don’t think Garcia has much value (nor is worth that $12M salary), but a lot people seem to think otherwise.
You gotta be kidding.
No Im not. Not that I have any idea why you’re saying that cuz you don’t specify what you mean by that
I predict the cardinals get Cespedes or Fowler. My gut says they go big after Cubs win. Sign Cespedes to a 4 year 96 mil deal.
Not the Cards model to pull reactive moves. They strive for win now and win later moves.
No doubt they have to address holes and find another core player to go with what is on hand already… idk exactly who Mo is going to target… wild ass guess really..
uh huh
Another off season with a lot of “dry powder.” I really hope Mo doesn’t go after the typical “low hanging fruit.” Need an impact move. Need a #3 hitter.
That being said, I fully expect no major transactions and a narrative of, “Lynn coming back from TJ is like a major pitcher acquisition.”
Well, that last statement isn’t wrong. Still, I fully expect them to add a second tier outfileder along the same lines as the Peralta and Leake signings the last two offseasons, whether by trade or free agency.
Go sign Ian Desmond and Cespedes! Or if they’re looking to add speed and defense, sign Desmond and Fowler
Yep, I agree with this one. Probably the combo of Desmond and Fowler makes more sense. But in order to do that, they’d need to shed some salary for this season.. Likely the ones to go would be Peralta and Garcia.
Question though – do the Cardinals move Diaz from SS to 3B? None of the defensive metrics were high on his play at SS. Could explain why this groundball starting rotation gave up so many runs this season.
Why would they need to sign two outfielders? Grichuk is still a good starting outfielder who is still developing and hit extremely well after returning from his second stint in AAA. In fact, he carried the offense in September.
As for Diaz, I personally agree that Peralta makes more sense at SS, but the Cardinals seem to think he’s only good as a 3B now. Hopefully, Diaz’s defense will get better as he develops.
Peralta has no range. Diaz numbers are for the whole season and don’t allow for vast improvement; plus his injury affected him for a bit. He is the SS of our future.
@Lanidrac – I suggested Desmond to put him at SS. Anything is better than Diaz or Peralta manning SS. If that were to happen, either Gyorko or Peralta would have to get traded – likely Peralta since he’s making more money and wasn’t as productive as Gyorko.
I’m hoping Diaz improves at SS but this rotation is so reliant on the groundball to get outs. Not having vacuum defense behind them is out of the question and I don;t know if it’s a wise investment to keep rolling the dice on Diaz’ defense at short.
desmond strikes out too much. cespedes resigns with ny
ive never looked at Cespedes as an option fot the cards but would he be worth the 1st rd pick?
Deal Garcia to Atl for Mallex Smith. Add and subtract spare parts from both sides to even out contract and percieved trade value. Sign Cespedes and Cards are complete with depth to trade as season progresses.
Why would Atlanta ever make that trade? silliness.
not sillyness.. have clearly stated wanting 2 veteran starting pitchers.. I am a Braves fan and if you think Mallex alone is enough to land Garcia then you are seriously overvaluing mallex and undervaluing Garcia. if only mallex for garcia it would be a steal for atl
I almost did a spit take when I read that proposal
I hope the Cardinals will shock everyone(for once) and make a blockbuster trade
Longoria and Kiermaier
For
Adams,Weaver,Gomber,Sierra,Peralta(if Tampa wants him) and other prospects
…
I doubt that would be enough. You’re talking about trading for a Gold Glove CF and franchise third baseman, I think Reyes would need to be in that deal
Reyes is about as untouchable as they get. Has the makes of a lights out pitcher. Hopefully out of the rotation else the pen.
Exactly that’s why I think it’s unlikely. If they wanted to get just Kiermaier, maybe
Why not trade the whole team for team. Are you sure you know baseball?
Can’t see this roster even making the Cubs check their rearview mirror. Cardinals have great depth but no top-flight players, no star power. Beyond Tsunamy, anyway.
They haven’t really had any top-flight players for years, and yet have still been successful. Even if they added one in the off-season, one still wouldn’t be enough to compete at the level of the Cubs, who have multiple young stars. Any way they win will do
I disagree. Wainwright, Molina, and Holliday certainly fit the bill as top-flight players. They just declined as a group the last couple of years.
They were good ballplayers, but i don’t know that they were superstars the way say, Bryant or Rizzo are.
You don’t need star power in baseball. Balanced teams win all the time
The Royals last year are the only possible recent champion I can think of that didn’t have much star power. Playing in Kansas City probably had a little to do with that.
Besides, I’m not just talking about players with notable names, I mean All-Star power, team leaders that take the team and carry it. Adams, Wong, Peralta, Gyorko are all useful players who can get hot and carry a team for a week maybe, but the season lasts half the year. Someone like Piscotty or Grichuk would have to step up and become a star.
This is mostly accurate, except for three things:
First, Wong is currently ahead of Gyorko on the depth chart. Gyorko has a lot of power, but he’s an even more one-dimensional hitter than Grichuk and plays below average defense. Meanwhile, Wong is still young and developing and played much better both offensively and defensively after his stint in AAA this season (plus, there’s that contact, too).
Second, the Cardinals expect to get a lot more than just “something” from Lynn. He’ll be nearly a year and a half removed from his TJS once next season begins, plenty of time to get back into the rotation, perhaps even without the usual dead arm period experienced by most TJS patients upon initially returning.
Third, don’t you realize that Rosenthal was pitching hurt for the first half of the season?! He was excellent once he returned in September, so there’s no reason to think he won’t be back in the late inning mix next season, perhaps even competing with Oh in Spring Training to try and win back the closer’s job. The Cards do still need some bullpen help, though. I don’t want to see Broxton pitching in that many close games again. He was decent but not that good.
Leake, weaver, Bader for pollock?
Leake has a no-trade clause 🙁
Right and he’d waive it to go to Arizona as that was his first choice to play
Oh right haha. If they still want him
Don’t forget Jackie Bradley Jr. Yes he had an emergence last year, but he fell off the map after the All-Star break. He had a .926 OPS before, and a .727 OPS after the break. I think his offense is somewhere in between there.
But Dombroski and the Red Sox FO may want to capitalize on his production. He’s 26, but will turn 27 in April 2017. Now might be a good time to entertain offers, and see what they’d get. If STL offered Jaime Garcia, Trevor Rosenthal, Jack Flaherty, that may be enough to get the conversation started. I’m sure the Red Sox would press for more, like Wacha instead of Garcia/Rosenthal, and they may be right.
Regardless, I think they’d match up on a trade.
Seems sensible. Sox could be looking at any of STL’s high-power, low-experience bullpen arms like Tuivailala and a rotation piece like Wacha. Could even make sense for these teams to swap Garcia for Buchholz. Betts is ready made to take over center in JBJ’s absence.
I think the Cards should look at the FA market Cespedes, Fowler, Desmond, Gomez, or even Jon Jay they all make sense in a way and they could possibly sign 2 of them. Cardinals shouldn’t be throwing around guys like Rosenthal and Wacha who are both young just had down years.
The most ready match for a center fielder seems to be Miami, which NEEDS two starters, and was shopping Marcell Ozuna last offseason, and is reportedly shopping Ozuna and Derek Dietrich for pitching this offseason.
The Cardinals have Jaime Garcia, Michael Wacha, Tim Cooney, Marco Gonzales, Mike Mayers, Tyler Lyons available, all of whom should be able to contribute to the starting rotation in Miami, plus all minor league pitchers not named Weaver or Hudson (at this point, I count Reyes as on the MLB roster next year).
If you move Ozuna to left, keep Grichuk in center, and have Piscotty in right, you have a pretty solid outfield.
As for Luke Weaver, he’s pretty close to untouchable at this point as he is the heir apparent for Lance Lynn after this season. Only way they deal him is for an upgrade at pitcher (like Quintana).