Wednesday’s big five-player trade between the Diamondbacks and Mariners is still generating headlines in the desert. Here’s some further analysis of the deal, plus more from Arizona…
- While Jean Segura and Taijuan Walker are the trade’s headline players, Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron observes that outfielder Mitch Haniger’s development will be a key aspect of the deal for Seattle. Haniger could end up as “the real get in this deal for the Mariners” if his swing changes hold and he continues to flash an above-average outfield glove, particularly as a center fielder. Haniger’s right-handed bat already makes him a valuable platoon or bench piece on a Mariners roster that has three left-handed hitters (Seth Smith, Leonys Martin, Ben Gamel) slated for starting outfield roles. Overall, Cameron likes the deal for Arizona, as Haniger and prospect Zac Curtis were mostly expendable parts for the D’Backs and Walker has considerable breakout potential.
- “It’s a trade that could turn into a win-win for both organizations or it could easily blow up for either team,” ESPN’s David Schoenfield writes in his analysis of the five players in the deal, as “all five players are difficult to project moving forward.” Schoenfield expects the Mariners to trade for more pitching, which might require a large payroll increase from 2016, though Schoenfield figures Seattle is a clearly all-in on competing next season.
- Southpaw Robbie Ray posted a 4.90 ERA, 11.3 K/9 and 3.07 K/BB rate over 174 1/3 innings for the D’Backs last season, and as ESPN.com’s Sam Miller notes, Ray’s year also served as an interesting test case for the different ways player value is measured. Depending on who you ask, last season Ray was either barely above replacement level (0.7 bWAR from Baseball Reference), one of the game’s better starters (3.0 fWAR from Fangraphs) or a top-15 starter in the game (4.82 WARP from Baseball Prospectus).
Robbie Ray allowed 1.47 base runners per inning. Forget all the other metrics … it’s impossible to be successful like that. A WHIP over 1.30 and it’s going to be hard to help your team win on a regular basis.
What was the defense like last year? That could be why his stats whip was bad but his peripherals were good
WHIP is not a good stat, especially in this case. Ray pitched in a hitters park with one of the worst defenses in baseball behind him. Of course he’s gonna let up some base runners. I think his value probably falls in the middle (I tend to like fangraphs valuations of pitchers the most anyways). That K/9 makes Ray really intriguing going forward though.
Agreed. Also, the data showed his catchers as being below average framers, which certainly doesn’t help the cause.
Don’t follow the Diamondbacks, but especially now that they seem to have a surplus of starting pitching, would they consider trying to convert Ray into a reliever? With his swing and miss stuff and trouble getting through the opposing lineup multiple times, it seems he might be well-suited for such a change — maybe he could even be a good closer.
I wouldn’t say a surplus yet. Ray was a bright spot for them past year. I say right now they have 3 somewhat reliable healthy starters. The rest are just wild cards and were beat up pretty bad last year.
Whip is a great stat…especially for relievers
WHIP is a terrible stat… Especially for relievers
With a 1.24 WHIP last season, Walker showed middle of a rotation ability.
Mariners outfield could be good but I’m still not very optimistic about how it’s looking. I’m good with Martin in center but then we have Gamel in right with Smith/Hanager/the guys we got from the Rays. Unless O’Neil can be ready to be a starter by the start of the season(The Mariners are saying he won’t be ready till september) we need to get another outfielder. Jon Jay, Michael Saunders or Colby Rasmus was what I was thinking. And then another starter which is probally going to be Jason Hammels.
I wouldn’t want any if the four guys you mentioned. They are just expensive versions of what we already have. The outfield is fine as you also have Valencia if need be and it’s also a very flexible roster position player wise.
I wouldn’t hold your breathe on O’Neill with his high K rate. I like him but he is at least a year away.
Don’t forget that Valencia can handle RF. He’s not outstanding but he’s a solid average. Martin has tremendous range and because he can handle most drives to right-center, Valencia can be positioned in closer to the corner.
Seattle is really well positioned for an outstanding season, if they can pick up one more reasonably reliable arm, they might be considered the favorites in the west.
What starting pitcher could you see them targeting?
Trade or free agency.
If you’re asking me, I have absolutely no clue. I don’t know how strong the Seattle system is in terms of prospects to offer, nor do I know what kind of budget they have, and I’m not really familiar with the non-marquee pitchers. Maybe Scott Feldman or another guy who might be had on an inexpensive one year deal.
As a dodger fan I got to watch Robbie ray pitch lots last year. Pretty impressive numbers don’t mean everything. Guy throws 97 and has flashes of brilliance. Need command improvement
Robbie Ray needs to command the zone more in order to take the next step forward. This is going to come from throwing his secondary pitches for strikes more and also from the umpires. Ray was very regularly a victim of balls in the upper part of the zone over the plate not being called strikes. If he continues to abuse the upper part of the zone consistently, he will start getting those calls, just as some pitchers abusing other areas begin to get the call after they demonstrate the ability is repeatable.
Throwing 96-98, being able to elevate the FB for strikes at the letters is key. Batters simply cannot catch up once the velocity starts getting into that range.
This is a good example of how people abuse some of these silly “advanced” metrics to redefine past performance. A season of 4.90 ERA and 1.47 WHIP is not a good season. It’s not even above replacement-level. It’s a poor season. Now, could you make an argument that his high K rate indicates that there is a likelihood of improvement on the horizon? Sure, you could argue that (though there are other indicators that suggest otherwise). But this idea of suggesting that a 4.90 ERA and 1.47 ERA over 170+ innings were “unlucky” or don’t truly reflect his performance last year is just silly.
Ray has great stuff but it didn’t translate into particularly effective pitching last year. He definitely took a step back from 2015, despite the increase in K rate.
So you don’t think there’s a difference between good and bad defenders? You don’t think some pitchers have worse sequencing luck? You don’t think what park you pitch in matters?
Silly talk.
In what way is adjusting for things over which a pitcher has zero control silly talk?
I was being sarcastic. The previous poster called those things “silly”. If they were, every team would be firing their analytical depts.
If these metrics are so “silly”, why does every team have an analytics department and continue to put money into them?
Ray would be blowing through the lineup then out of nowhere give up 4 or 5 in the 5th or 6th. I know the Dbacks need and want him to be a starter but this guy could be a dynamite reliever
If he has another season in 2017 like he did in 206, the Diamondbacks might move him then. It would seem pretty premature to send him to the bullpen now though, when he is just finally starting to put it all together.
Why is ray even mentioned in this rumor? He wasn’t part of the trade.
+1 here, if anyone profiles as the next Andrew Miller it would be Ray.
If Seattle isn’t the favorite in the west, please tell me why they aren’t? Maybe pitching, but the Astros pitching in the four and five spots are also a partial question mark.
The corner OF is a bit of a question mark. We have a lot of guys but no clear cut answers there. Don’t say Smith he is a bat only with a poor glove. Exact opposite of what Dipoto said he wanted in an OFer he is not athletic or fast. 1st is still a bit of a question mark too. Valencia should be fine but Vogelbach hasn’t proven anything. We also need a lefty out of the BP and another SP. There is a lot to like with the M’s this year but Texas and Houston are going to be tough too. Who knows though if the new players all surprise us we could make a long run and be playing in Oct. Or be disappointed again. There is hope but it isn’t a for sure thing.
I think Rajai Davis could be had and he’d be very good, but you’d have to dump somebody to make room.
I’m not even especially a Seattle fan, although I follow them daily, and like them, but Dipoto really impresses me.
But I really think Texas is going to do nothing next year because they don’t have any pitching, and Beltre is another year older and he’s gotta fall apart eventually, doesn’t he?
Moreland is gone, The infield defense is going to be bad, and they only have two reliable pitchers. It’s not all bad for the Rangers, but I really think the division is going to go to either Seattle or Houston.
Top 15 starter in the game? Well, we know that valuation of Ray is wrong.
The reason teams are spending a lot on analytics is primarily due to the new wave of GMs, most of whom would put their jock on backwards. Numbers are the universe they are comfortable with ; therefore it becomes the only universe.
In general, all baseball stats are like IQ tests; in isolation, virtually useless, but if you take enough of them, you do get an indication of something. But they’re hardly predictive except in obvious situations (Trout’s going to be outstanding anywhere).
There is some indication Ray can get better. He was pitching in a bandbox, in front of a clumsy defensive team, and a team that was psychologically imploding in May. There might be more there, tho I’d caution the ceiling isn’t quite that high with Ray. The stuff a 4th (possibly 3rd) type starter is made of.