NOV. 21: The Cardinals have formally announced Cecil’s four-year deal and introduced him at a press conference.
NOV. 19: The Cardinals have agreed to a four-year deal with southpaw reliever Brett Cecil, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link). The deal will pay Cecil $30.5MM over the four seasons and includes full no-trade protection, according to FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links). The contract will be official when Cecil, an ACES client, passes a physical.
[Related: Updated St. Louis Cardinals depth chart]
St. Louis was known to be interested in bullpen help this winter, and adding another left-hander was the more logical fit, as Kevin Siegrist was the only other healthy southpaw in the Cards’ bullpen. Tyler Lyons will miss at least the start of the 2017 season due to knee surgery, while Zach Duke will miss next season entirely after undergoing Tommy John surgery.
In Cecil, the Cardinals have landed one of the top setup men on the market this winter. In four years as a full-time reliever, Cecil posted a 2.90 ERA, 11.5 K/9 and 3.68 K/BB rate with the Blue Jays, with grounder rates of over 50% in three of those four years. Over his career, Cecil has dominated left-handed hitters, limiting them to just a .226/.281/.344 slash line.
Despite this solid track record, the thought of Cecil landing a four-year deal seemed pretty remote in mid-July. The lefty missed six weeks due to a tear in his lat muscle, and he had a whopping 6.75 ERA over his first 16 innings of action. Down the stretch, however, Cecil looked far closer to his old self, posting a 1.74 ERA over his final 20 2/3 innings of the year.
Cecil’s 3.93 ERA was his highest in four seasons, though a .344 BABIP and an inflated 20% home run rate can be partially blamed for that spike. Advanced metrics peripherals (3.64 FIP, 2.87 xFIP, 2.71 SIERA) take a more positive view of Cecil’s season, and he also posted a 11.05 K/9 and 1.96 BB/9. His grounder rate did drop to just 42%, however, and hitters were making very good contact — 37.3% of Cecil’s contact allowed was comprised of hard-hit balls, easily the highest total of his career.
MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes ranked Cecil 26th on his list of the winter’s top 50 free agents, and projected him to land a three-year, $18MM contract. The fact that Cecil ended up with a fourth year and $30.5MM in guaranteed money is both a nice win for his representatives at ACES and a sign of just how far the Cards had to go to win the bidding. The Mariners and Blue Jays were both known to be interested in Cecil’s services, with Toronto reportedly putting a three-year deal on the table to retain their longtime reliever. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports that the Jays were one of multiple teams willing to give Cecil a three-year commitment.
Photo courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas/USA Today Sports Images
They needed this after Duke went down.
Figured he’d get 3/25. Cards offering the 4th year probably sealed it. Too bad, liked him to the Cubs.
I am astonished by the Cardinals signing Cecil,he pitched in a very competitive division.I like this move by the Cardinals after they had some many problems in the bullpen with injured players.
Damn I thought he was surely going to resign
30m for Cecil. Lmao. He isn’t worthy of half that
He had what one bad season out of what the last four or five?
I like how everyone is saying 30 mil over 4 years is too much. Like they are paying for it. Cardinals have a ton of money and had a big issue in the bullpen and not only did they fix it they got one of the best in a relievers market. Game is changing with set up men.. see Andrew Miller. This was a great signing for the Cardinals. Now go out and get a CF
Andrew Miller is Andrew Miller. Brett Cecil is no Andrew Miller.
Nobody said he was.
Wow please reread my post and let it sink in. Never said he was.
The way it’s shaping up don’t be surprised to see Cards deploy a tandem of Rosenthal and Wacha in the AMiller type role. Coupled with a closer in Oh, setup in Cecil and Siegrist with Bowman bring up the swing man role nicely. That’s not factoring in Broxton, Marco Gonzalez, Littrell and Sheriff as depth.
In cardinal nation…. you see… a grade C+ performer… automatically becomes at least an A- ! LOL
I know @RedFeather I’m a bluejays fan I think this is worth the money heck Charlie Morton just got 7 mill a season
Now wait cards don’t have a lot of money , be careful or you will lose your yearly free draft picks for being a small market team 🙂
Lol
Perfectly said, and correct. Sign Fowler, keep the young talent (for now) and wait for the next offseason for a better FA class. This year is obviously lacking in FA talent which in turn drives the trade market up. I’d love to see the birds make some moves but truthfully, this just might be the wrong off-season to do it.
Pass on Fowler
Fowler’s not much of an improvement defensively over Grichuk, though.
Personally, I’d love to be able to use a package headlined by Gyorko and Garcia to get someone, although I don’t know if that’s possible.
Grichuk is actually pretty good defensively. His problem is not reading the ball well off the bat in CF. It’s different than the corner spots. But putting him in LF is such an upgrade over Holliday, plus with Piscotty in RF, it reduces the amount of ground the CF must cover and makes Fowler a legit option and would make for a very solid defensive OF. And offensively as well.
Well, they r paying for it since taxpayers r paying off part of the stadium cost for the Redbirds. If they weren’t, these players wouldn’t b getting so much money. Laws need to b passed to stop stadium blackmail by the sports teams; they can afford to build their own stadiums, by taking out loans like the rest of us do.
Check your facts. Busch Stadium III is one of the rare modern ballparks that was completely privately funded.
You are so wrong on that but ok? Good to know that you know where your hard earn tax dollars are going. Not a penny of the new Busch came from public taxes.
So far all the Jay’s have done is sit back and jerk off so much for their major league payroll going up. Probably end up signing Logan and Dunn!
Chapman getting 100M+ doesn’t sound very strange now
I thought the Cubs might be in on both Cecil and Cashner, and Jansen out of the picture. I don’t think they were ever interested in re-signing Chapman. Cecil to the Cards is a surprise, and huge for them.
Cecil is overrated and a four year deal is absurd. Bad move, Cards.
How is he overrated?
How? He’s been The guy to get Ortiz out in the AL East, he can Be STL’s vs Rizzo and Schwarber
When Cubs are winning 8-1 does it matter?
Hey now, the Cubs may be Division and World Champions, but the Cardinals actually held their own against them head-to-head this past season.
It will come down to Cubs replacing players who aren’t resigned . Need to sign big 3 closer and if lose wood and Cahill in bullpen. Curious who cards sign. If they stay in cheap as usual it will be Cubs running away and hiding in division again. Cubs cards rivalry will be fun for years to come . Reyes looks like the real deal .
No offense to the Cubs, but they had ZERO serious injuries 2016 to key pitcher or core position players…Injuries always play a factor.. Great core that has won a WS in year one of their window…
But 2017 is a new season for everyone even the Cubs..
Uhhh…I guess Kyle Schwarber was not a “core” position player. If he was, he only spent 178 days on the DL. Additionally, Soler spent 59 days on the DL, Strop 43 days, Fowler 33 days, and Baez 12 days.
Non-“key’ guys but still important: La Stella 28 days, Rondon 20 days, Montero 19 days, Cahill 38 days,
In 2016, the Cubs had 20 players spend a combined 1537 days on the DL. The Cardinals had 17 players spend a combined 1474 days.
Overrated? He had a bad start to the year after coming back from an leg injury in last years playoffs and then played with a lat tear which finally sent him to the DL. Once he came back from the DL he was his old self and one of the top lefty relievers in the game (a 1.74 ERA after after the DL stint and down the stretch). Last year and into the start of this one he tied the major league record for scoreless innings as a reliever. Of all the players who ever played, current or past, only one had as many consecutive scoreless innings. Let that sink in. Overrated, lol.
You watch a lot of Cecil? Or, you an optimistic Cards fan with a stat fixation? Cecil is Jason Frasor, puts up solid numbers in low pressure situations. “Let that sink in,” thanks tips.
“Cecil is Jason Frasor, puts up solid numbers in low pressure situations.”
As an aggregate from 2013 – 2015, Brett Cecil would rank 32nd among relief pitchers in WPA.
His 2016 season was bad, there’s no denying it, but when you look at his performance from 2013 – 2015, Cecil easily among the top 30 relief pitchers in baseball..
this big piece of fruit… was low hanging… wait tilll his curveballs are found by NL hitters to be high hanging! BAD move for Johnny ‘no balls’ Mozeliak!
Cecil is the 3rd best bullpen arm on the market, and the 2nd best lefty reliever out there. I was really hoping the Jays would bring him back, but 4 years is a bit steep even though 7.5AAV is a good price for a pitcher of Cecil’s ability. If you look at the secondary numbers, Cecil actually pitched well last year (11K/9-1.98BB/9), however he had some bad luck and gave up a large amount of HR’s. I think that HR rate should normalize closer to his career averages and he’ll once again be one of the best lefties in the league.
This leaves a big hole in the bullpen for Toronto. They really need to find at least one lefty reliever, preferably two lefties going into next season. Atkins and company have a lot of work to do in order to get this team back to where they were the past two years. It will be interesting to see how this off-season unfolds. GO JAYS GO!
You hit it right on the button. I think they’ll sign Dunn and Logan cause loup is terrible he can’t get lefties out and can’t hit the zone
Wow now a guy who is a set up man gets this much money and a 4 year deal on top of that. The cards will regret giving up this FA contract.
Since they donated 10 mil to Walden, I don’t see this as a bad move
People lets not forget he pitched in the AL East he’s now going to the NL
Lost that one in the contest
you can still fix it. I had him resigning with Toronto
This is a good signing that was needed. I think the 4th year will be a team or vesting option or the deal will be frontloaded and be able to dump if he becomes ineffective in the final 2 years
That’s way too much money for Cecil, a reliever that isn’t as good as people think.
He set the record for most scoreless appearances in a row…
Yet the numbers say otherwise.
He had a .3 WAR last year and a career high of 1.4 WAR, that’s not very good.
If you take away 2013 and 2014, you’re right, 1.4 is his highest
How about using other metrics besides the incredibly arbitrary war?
Been watching him for a long time. He is fine if he gets his curveball over for strikes. If he doesn’t he gets lit up like a lamp. With that said…I hope it works out for all concerned.
I’m not really sure how people see this as too much? He needs to put up like 3 war over the course of 4 years and that’s assuming that fwar doesn’t undervalue the contribution of a reliever.
It’s an overpay relative to other relievers.. you could have paid O’Day, who is a whole lot better the exact same last offseason.
last offseason is last offseason. This offseason is this offseason.
Considering this offseason’s crop of relievers is x10 better, prices shouldn’t increase..
Jansen has a comp pick and chapman might get 100m. We’ll see what Melancon ends up getting
O’day also would’ve been 33 yrs old as a submarine/sidearm pitcher versus Cecil who is 3 years younger and throws basically three quarter to over the top arm angle
Actually he might be a little closer to 4 years younger
The WAR/$ equation is extremely flawed. You didn’t see Heyward get $40mm/year last offseason, obviously they are not valuing WAR like Fangraphs says they should, which makes the entire thing quite useless to cite.
Teams have their own proprietary ways of measuring WAR. they’re not using Fangraphs or B-R.
I may have gone 3, definitely not 4. Good luck to the Cards on this one.
Not surprised the Jays didn’t match this offer. Blue Jays showed this past season that you don’t need to hand out big contracts to get decent relievers. Especially considering they have bigger holes to fill in the field. Biagini (rule 5), Grilli (trade) and Benoit (trade) were all obtained for next to nothing and became fixtures in the pen.
4 years is too long for a reliever. Too volatile.
I wouldn’t give Cecil four years either, but Chapman and Jansen would be my only two relief pitchers that should get four years this offseason.
I’m a bit skeptical of the contract, but nonetheless, I’m happy Mo got a reliever to replace Duke.
Definitely needed a reliever for the cardinals. A little skeptical on amount and length but really excited about them getting a good solid arm and a lefty no less. Once the Cardinals trade for Cain or Kiermaier I’ll be feeling much better about their chances.
agreed, I’d love to see them make a trade for Kiermaier/Longo. Maybe trade Grichuk/Peralta/prospects to TB for Kiermaier and Longo, then sign Cespedes and call it an offseason.
I would be all for them trading Peralta, not Grichuk. But I really like the idea of Cain in center. The Royals have already stated they are tight and getting a good controllable return in someway from the Cards to create some payroll space might be just enough to get them to bite
Getting Sale wouldn’t be bad either but I don’t like what we would have to give up.
kiermeier would be a nice addition. Lets see if Mo has it in him!
Woah. 4/30 means Chapman and Jansen are definitely getting over 100 million each. Surprised by the numbers and length for Cecil. He’s a good pitcher for sure, but he’s a middle reliever..
In today’s landscape I think it can be argued that a middle reliever is more important then a closer. Closers are so hot and cold from one year to the next that I would fill it through the draft with low paid heat. Closers are basically running backs. A guy that can pitch one inning can be found anywhere.
I agree with you. It just was surprising that teams are picking up on this so quickly too. It’s good, because hopefully it means eventually managers will stop managing to the useless “save” stat and start using their best relievers in the highest leverage situations.
Just a reminder to all. Arizona Fall league championship is on mlb tv right now.
Lets go Happ and Eloy jimenez!
Inserts data point.
John Mozeliak overpays for mid-tier talent but has been able to not get burned by it for the most part. I’m interested to see what the deals for Cecil and Wong and Gyorko look like in two years. I’m curious what Rob Kaminsky will be doing for Cleveland around that time.
Mo has made a living off of drafting guys who do something really well but don’t have the normal build needed and trading them before their stock drops i.e. Brett Wallace, Shane Peterson, and the man you mentioned rob kaminsky. Mo knows what he has in the prospects he is ultimately trading away.
But he has made mistakes. Luke Gregerson went to San Diego in the Khalil Greene trade. I believe another useful reliever was traded for Pedro Feliz (yikes). He seems to do well on the big splashes, but very poorly when acquiring mid-level to lower-level talent, as most of his bench signings have shown.
Mo will never DO. or be able to DO, what Whitey did prior to the 82 season… Trade away T,,, then have both Fingers and Sutter,,, and then trade Fingers! Mo likes the low hanging fruit! He is as pathetic as the cardinal broadcast team of McLaughlin, Edmonds, Hrabosky and I guess Horton is still around? Lean years are right on the horizon for Cardinal Nation!
Good move by Stl. I think the contract reflects today’s market. Good relievers are going to get paid.
Good signing. Definitely need BP arms
Good sign. And is not an overpay. An over pay for a good example is 170 million for an outfielder that hits 230. Now that’s the definition of an overpay.
As a Jay’s fan who watches every game I’ve said many times “oh no they are bringing Cecil in” during a game. Stats look decent but he’s awful in high pressure situations. Perfect guy to close out a game when your up by 5 though.
I do not agree. I watch every game as well and I didn’t have the same feeling than you. With the exception of some short stretch, he has been quite consistent over the past few years. The thing with Cecil is that his curveball has so much effect that he often throws to the dirt, thus giving the impression that he is not in control at all.
When he is on though, he can be a dominant reliever and we will probably miss him in TO.
Lol at this guy getting 30.5mil
What a dumb signing. This guy is about as average as can be. I once watched Peter Bourjos hit a 450 foot bomb off this guy in Spring Training. Mozeliak, once again, panicked into a signing.
So you base player evaluation on ST? I suppose that makes Bourjos a cleanup hitter on your team.
Yes, that’s exactly what I’m saying…NOT. He’s not that good. He was bad last year, and I don’t think he’s worth a 4 year contract. I don’t think any middle reliever/set up man is worth a 4 year deal.
He wasn’t bad last year though. He wasn’t dominate like he was but he had a flukey hr/fb rate
Haters are gana hate on this deal but it was very much needed deal. Cecil did have a down season but this is a guy that used to be a dominant closet for the Jays. As a setup man I think this deal will be worth
Exactly people say he was awful this year yet he was still above average. And that’s coming off of 3 dominate years in a row. The 4th year might be scary but even if he’s just a loogy then, his curve should still get him by.
Correction to myself “Closer” not Clioset
He was never a closer, he has 11 career saves
He was good when he had the opportunity. I believe the Jays set a record for a stretch without a save opportunity that year. I believe it was something ridiculous like 45 games.
How can a guy be a “dominant closer” when he has 11 career saves?
I thought he announced he was joining the military after last year.
Somehow got switched from the Brayan Pena thread
I feel this is a fairly solid move by StL. One of the better moves in recent years by this management. Now, go sign Fowler for CF, move Grichuk to LF and Piscotty to RF, and we will be one of the most productive defensive (possibly offensive) outfields in the majors.
It’s an overpay, but that’s the way free agency works; guys getting larger contracts than they deserve cuz it’s a bidding war. Besides, he’s an improvement in the Cards bullpen in terms of left-handed relievers, with Siegrist being the only effective lefty in there. I like this signing, and I hope Mo targets an OF next
Cecil is average
Stats say otherwise
Go look at his stats last year with men on base and RISP. Horrible!
He threw 15.2 innings last year with men on base after dominating with men on base from 2013-2015. That’s more of a sample size fluke than any indictment on his will or something. He’s coming off of one average year in the heels of 3 elite ones. Hard to say he’s only average
The contract for Cecil was ASININE. 30 mil over 4 years…with a no trade? Are you kidding me? Someone in the Cards front office needs to be drug-tested immediately
The only problem is the no trade. But, that may well be how they had to do it to get him this early. At least they spent some money. However, until they trade for or buy a top tier well established hitter and pitcher, we won’t see much better in 2017. Especially how Mathaney never has a set starting line up and over uses his individual relievers until they get hurt or die from exhaustion.
Quit throwing around ridiculous adjectives like “elite.” He’s not an elite pitcher.