It sounds as if the Mets are set to pay Jay Bruce $13MM club option rather than paying him a $1MM buyout and sending him back onto the open market. Certainly, that has long been the expectation since the team acquired him by shipping youngsters Dilson Herrera and Max Wotell to the Reds at the trade deadline, with some suggesting that the addition was partially seen internally as a hedge against the departure of Yoenis Cespedes this winter.
Still, there are reasons to think that New York could have second thoughts on paying that sum for Bruce’s age-30 campaign. Even after a hot streak to end the year, Bruce wrapped up his 50 games in New York with a meager .219/.294/.391 batting line and eight home runs.
Though he hasn’t been consistent from year-to-year over his career, and some regression might have been expected, that’s a far sight shy of the .265/.316/.559 slash and 25 long balls that Bruce produced in 402 plate appearances this year in Cincinnati. As August Fagerstrom of Fangraphs explained recently, there are some worrying signs embedded in the late-year struggles, connected to Bruce’s mediocre and injury-limited prior two campaigns.
On the other hand, the Mets already paid the acquisition cost and penciled Bruce’s 2017 salary onto the books for a reason. Their scouts obviously liked what they saw in a player who doesn’t fit New York’s typical, high-OBP focus. (And that has worked out just fine so far with Cespedes.) Between 2010-13, Bruce racked up 121 home runs with a 121 OPS+ in more than 2,500 Major League plate appearances, so the talent is there.
And then there’s the question of defense, which was the biggest knock on Bruce’s value. Defensive metrics hated his glove of late in Cinci, even though some suggested that it wasn’t nearly as bad as the numbers suggested. Though it’s quite a small sample, Bruce’s 351 2/3 innings with the Mets were much more promising. He recorded 2 Defensive Runs Saved and 3.6 runs by measure of UZR during that span — quite strong marks.
Finally, there’s the matter of how well Bruce fits onto the Mets’ 2017 roster (depth chart). New York, of course, already has Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto as left-handed corner bats in the outfield, and the team hopes to retain Cespedes, even if that may be a long shot. While Granderson is still capable of playing center field, he’s best-suited for an outfield corner. Also in the mix will be Juan Lagares, who should be fully recovered from the thumb injury that sidelined him for most of the 2016 season’s second half.
Suffice it to say, there are numerous factors that need to be considered when answering what, on the surface, appears to be a fairly simple question. Let’s open this one up for discussion (link to poll for Trade Rumors app users)…
guinnesspelican
Aren’t offensive numbers inflated at the launching pad in the park that the Reds play in?
Steve Adams
They are — but even park-adjusted metrics like OPS+ and wRC+ had Bruce about 25 percent better than a league-average bat, which is excellent.
VampWeekAtBern
GABP inflates home runs quite a bit but is otherwise fairly neutral.
gmflores27
Invested too much value into him, better just to keep him
eliu2017
Feel like they should pick it up regardless if they need him or not. He’s still a valuable trade chip at his club option. Besides, they traded some quality prospects for him already
kbarr888
1. Granderson signed for just 1 more year (gone after 2017)
2. Bruce was a Top Prospect and has talent…..(It’s in there….somewhere….lol)
3. Lagares is signed through 2019 with an option for 2020 (very affordable)
4. Cespedes will want 5/$125 million minimum to hang around. (that’s a hometown discount)
5. Conforto is a true LF. Not a CF….Not a RF.
Option A:……Let Cespedes walk, Platoon 4 OF’s in 2017 (yes, there will be 2 LHB’s vs lefties)
Option B:…..Sign Cespedes, trade Bruce, make Conforto play RF, platoon Grandy & Lagares. (compromises defense)
Option C:…..sign Cespedes, teach Conforto 1B, platoon Grandy & Lagares & Bruce in RF/CF…….trade Bruce at the deadline if he’s raking and use Nimmo in that same role.
(maximizes Bruce’s value…….If Bruce sucks, release him and play Nimmo)
Option C:…..Let Cespedes walk, let Bruce walk too, Conforto in LF, Grandy in CF, Nimmo in RF (much younger roster, but wins will suffer)
bradthebluefish
Wow! Thanks for the excellent
bradthebluefish
Personally, I’d go with Option C. All depends on Cespedes’s asking price.
Option A is a great backup plan.
Also, if the Mets believed in Jay Bruce enough to trade for him 3-4 months ago, then the Mets should believe in Jay Bruce enough that he’ll bounce back in 2017.
kbarr888
Cespedes probably looking for 5/135……..might need to accept 5/125……………and maybe the Mets can afford that contract for 3 years, but then their pitching staff all will be looking for big paydays.
My pick for 2017 is Cespedes/Grandy/Bruce w/Lagares as #4 and Conforto at 1B (or trade bait)
Bruce is a decent value at $13 million, unless he turns into Jason Heyward (I doubt that he will). Trade him in July or give him a QO and take the draft pick.
Nimmo is just 23 so another 1/2 year wouldn’t hurt his future. They need to ride the Grandy train for 1 more year (freeing up $15 million for the Cespedes contract)……then Nimmo can play RF and Lagares CF.
Lagares is a solid guy, but not a star. Lindsay should be ready before Lagares’ contract runs out..
RoadRunner1938
Cespedes is not going to be giving the Mets a home town discount! He’s going to get a big payday!
Deke
What do you think Cespedes is going to get and how long? I think he really likes NY so he would at the very least allow them to match any offers he gets from another team. Whether they pay it or not is another thing.
slider32
Agreed, the Mets are going nowhere without Cespedes even thought he is a little streaky! I don’t like Bruce and I think they would have a hard time moving him.
Larry David's Joe Pepitone Jersey
I go back and forth about this, but my ultimate answer is “no”
I would rather see the Mets put the money toward Cespedes or Turner or some other assortment of offensive improvements somewhere else.
ripperlv
Pick up the option and trade. Also I always hear that UZR needs 2 years to be somewhat accurate, but this guys are always quoting small sample size, which shouldn’t be used. That’s why I don’t like defensive metrics.
metseventually 2
No.
largeunit
Sick analysis, bro.
metseventually 2
Thanks, guy.
willi
Mutts are going to pay 13 Million for a Plt player, they already got enough of them the in lineup. Sign and Trade immediately .
Yankees will go for him, because ofPorch in right field has him hit , Wait an minute have Brian automatic against lefthand pitchers Mcain
davidcoonce74
I don’t know how options work but in MLB you can’t sign a player and immediately trade him – I believe you have to wait six months to do so with free agents. But I don’t know if the same rules apply to picking up an option.
socalbaseballdude
They should keep Bruce….gave up a lot to get him and he’ll be more at home in NY next season.
iuo
The Mets should pick up the option on Bruce. Then either trade or keep him. But no matter what the Mets NEED to sign Cespedes, without him they struggle on offense. Bruce is a streaky hitter just like Duda. Even if they keep Bruce they can still afford Cespedes at 5/125. The Mets made a lot of revenue this and last year. 2017 would be their biggest payroll but don’t forget after 2017 many players (Bruce, Granderson, Cabrera) come off the books so Cespedes will be more affordable (according to Mets management finances SMH!) In 2017 you’ll have an outfield of
Rf-Bruce
Lf-Cespedes
CF- Granderson/ Lagares platoon and late inning defense. As for Conforto send him to AAA to refine his defense in Rf and Cf and hitting. We have Smith coming up at 1B hopefully he works out. As for 2017 you platoon Duda and Flores at 1B and you’ll have Flores as insurance just in case Wright gets hurt again. Then Cabrera at Ss and Reyes at 2B (Mets signed him with a 2017 option). There’s no way I can see the Mets signing Walker when they have a cheap option in Reyes. They’ll just hope for the QO. Gotta resign Kelly for the bench also.
JohnChasse
How about…a) Let Cespedes walk and use that money to sign Ian Desmond to play CF and maybe some incidentals (RH hitting 1B, a replacement starting catcher) and have Granderson and Bruce on the corners b) have an infield of 3B Wright, SS Reyes 2B Cabrera if Wright comes back or 3B Reyes SS Cabrera 2B Rivera if he doesn’t (with Flores an IF supersub either way) c) see what Baltimore would send the Mets for D’Arnaud and d) hope the starting pitching come back strong?
shoewizard
The guy has been essentially a replacement level player for 3 years running and is not getting younger.
Mets need a 2 WAR season out of him to come out ahead and while anything is possible, it seems like a poor bet to get that out of Bruce, especially for 13 M
They paid too much to get him, that was a mistake. No need to double down on the mistake by overpaying for a few more homeruns than you might otherwise get, and end up with large negatives everywhere else, (OBP, Defense, Baserunning)
Dookie Howser, MD
Where is the “Give a Qualifying Offer” option for LaRussa to choose?
tylerall5
I mean, Bruce played 1st a couple years ago when votto went down. May not be a perfect player there, but it would definitely give him a place to play if the mets do resign Cespedes. Conforto can play left, have cespedes in center, and a platoon in right. Granted, this is all based on Cespedes staying, which is by no means a guarantee.
Joe Orsulak
I have to think the Mets made the trade for Bruce fully knowing that they’d be priced out of bringing Cespedes back. I think the Mets also figured it would be easier to bring Neil Walker back and that’s why they were comfortable in dealing Dilly Herrara.
I’d love to keep Cespedes but I just don’t think it’s logical given the Mets operate like a mid-market team these days. Bruce at 1/$13 and Walker at 3/$45 are just easier pills to swallow than Cespedes at 5 /$150 .
Bruce then walks after this season, if not dealt at the deadline. Granderson also walks. They’ve still got Lagares, who’s hopefully kept improving at the plate, and Conforto. At that point they find the RF stopgap.
kbarr888
Nimmo is ready to play RF. when Bruce walks……Lindsay is a couple years away from taking over in CF.
That gives them Conforto/Nimmo/Lindsay in the OF in a couple years, and for many years afterwards.
Young…..Affordable……Defense…..Balanced offense
chesteraarthur
Lindsay hasn’t played above A-. Counting your chickens a little bit?
Joe Orsulak
If Nimmo was ready to play full time next year the Mets would not have traded Herrera for Bruce.
kbarr888
Sorry…….The period was a typo…………it should say “Nimmo is ready to play RF when Bruce walks”………….(That means for the 2018 season)
Lugares is under team control through 2019, with an option for 2020 @ $9.5 million. I may be expecting a lot out of Lindsay, but that gives him 3 years to develop……or maybe Becerra is ready instead……..
Or maybe Lagares blossoms into a real bargain….????
ExileInLA 2
Mets should look to move one of Bruce or Grandy, but only after signing Cespedes. Yes, it’s a fire sale then – but too bad.
Then Ces/Lagares/Bruce or Grandy, with Conforto always available and Nimmo as well.
For the IF, keep Walker if we think he can learn either 3B or 1B; a Murphy deal (3/$36mm) should work. Let Duda leave. If Wright plays, Walker to 1B and Reyes to 2B on those days; Flores and K Johnson at 1B otherwise.
chesteraarthur
I think they kind of have too. they gave up too much to acquire him, and I assume they did so with the expectation that they’d pick up his option. You have to think they aren’t very confident in retaining yo
baseball1005
Keep him, was getting better twoards the end
padam
I’d keep him, especially in the event they don’t sign Cespedes. Move Conforto to 1B and the OF would then be Bruce in RF, Lagares in CF and Granderson in LF. While I’d love to see them resign Cespedes, I’m sure someone is going to outbid them in this weak FA market. Plus, the Mets need to save some money for the pitchers that will eventually be coming up if they’re going to remain cost concious.