That the Brewers should tender a contract to slugging first baseman Chris Carter seems, at first, to be obvious. After being non-tendered by the Astros last offseason, Carter signed a one-year, $2.5MM contract with Milwaukee, then tied Nolan Arenado for the NL home-run crown, with a career-high 41. Now Carter has 4.159 years of service time, and the Brewers are faced with a decision. Surely it would be ridiculous for them to non-tender him, right?
Well, maybe not. MLBTR projects that Carter will get a very significant bump in salary next year, making $8.1MM through arbitration. While that’s not an astronomical figure, it is high for a one-dimensional player. As MLBTR’s Matt Swartz points out, hitters’ salaries during their arbitration seasons are typically evaluated by batting average, home runs, RBIs, stolen bases and plate appearances. Carter has never hit well for average or stolen many bases, but he fared very well last season in the other three categories, also amassing 94 RBIs and 644 PAs. In arbitration, counting stats are what matter most, and Carter’s are impressive. In addition, the relative defensive value of a shortstop, say, as compared to a first baseman is not as important in arbitration as it would be on the free agent market. That factor also favors Carter, should the Brewers tender him.
As a result, the amount the Brewers will have to pay Carter through the arbitration process could approach or exceed his actual value. The arbitration process won’t penalize Carter much for his consistently mediocre on-base percentages (.321 this season, .314 career) or his below-average defense at first base (-5.2 UZR in 2016). Via FanGraphs, Carter’s 41-homer 2016 season was worth just 0.9 wins above replacement, largely due to those factors. Also via FanGraphs, the dollar value of that 0.9-WAR season was just $7.1MM, below the $8.1MM he’d likely receive next year through the arb process.
In fact, Carter has only produced more than 1 fWAR twice in his career, thanks to his lack of defensive value and his exorbitant strikeout totals, which prevent him from reaching base. He whiffed 206 times in 2016, and that wasn’t even his career high in that category. Carter was non-tendered last offseason after totaling 90 home runs in the three previous years, even though his salary would only have been a projected $5.6MM. After hitting the open market, he ultimately made less than half that. He would have been worth the $5.6MM in 2016, but neither the Astros nor the free agent market seemed exuberant about his value. That’s worth considering this time around.
It perhaps makes sense, then, that the Brewers appear to be at least considering non-tendering Carter. Today’s Knuckleball’s Jon Heyman reported two weeks ago that the team had a tough decision on its hands, although GM David Stearns had previously indicated Carter would return.
Then again, 41 home runs is 41 home runs, and perhaps we’re overthinking it. One would imagine that, at the very least, Carter would have value in the right context. Pedro Alvarez, who’s left-handed but has many of the same strengths and weaknesses as Carter, got a $5.8MM deal last offseason but produced $9MM in value for the Orioles, generally playing DH. And another whiff-prone, defensively challenged Orioles slugger, Mark Trumbo, got $9.2MM but produced $17.3MM in value.
Also, the Brewers don’t have that much to lose by tendering Carter. They only have two players — Ryan Braun and Matt Garza — under contract for next season, and don’t project to have a high payroll (particularly since Braun is a trade candidate anyway). They can afford Carter. Also, Carter isn’t blocking anyone who would greatly benefit from his playing time. If Carter has another NL-leading home run season, he could perhaps land the Brewers a prospect or two at the trade deadline, or maybe even next offseason, since he’ll still have another year before free agency eligibility. (It should be noted, though, that his projected 2018 salary will be very high if he hits well next season.) There’s also the possibility that some power-starved team could overpay for Carter, given his unique skill set. The Brewers could even tender Carter and then attempt to deal him this winter, if there’s a market.
Perhaps, then, this is much ado about nothing. Tendering Carter seems like the obvious course of action, and perhaps that’s the one the Brewers will take. It’s a decision worthy of serious thought, however. What do you think?
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Looks like there isn’t much to write about regarding MLB these days.
Seriously.
It’s the beginning of the off-season. And they aren’t going to sit here and only talk about Cleveland and Chicago. Nobody is talking contracts right now. So basically during the end of October and beginning of November you only get speculation posts.
what do you expect? big trades and signings?
Tendering him seems like an obvious decision based on the fact that the Brewers have no other major expenses other than Ryan Braun, who seems likely to be traded this offseason. The better question is: Should he be traded. He gives the Brewers a solid veteran presence, but he could also conceivably bring back quite a haul in a deal.
He’s not bringing back a “haul” as he only does one thing well.
Trade him to an AL team in need of power, like the Jays (should both EE and Bautista leave).
power, on base percentage, being a veteran presence on an otherwise inexperienced ball club for under $10m- he’s more than just a one-dimensional player.
Look at what Seattle got for Trumbo. Call it a haul if you like.
sign him get it done don’t be stupid brewer’s if you to go to the world seris
274 total bases over a full year is something you pay under 10 mill for, all day, regardless of position.
He also walks a bit so as long as he has an OBP around .320 with 40 bombs, that’s a guy who isn’t hurting you. Plus he’s a fine trade piece at the deadline for a contender that wants power. He should be a full time DH, no doubt, but they should keep him for both 1B and as a trade piece for now.
This is where stats like WAR get on my nerves. You tender him because you hardly have any established talent to work with aside from Braun, who you are also looking to trade.
You have to at least attempt to be competitive for the sake your fanbase, the sport, and most importantly selling tickets.
If he pans out again, you can also make the most of it at the trade deadline, his production was good enough to fill holes in other teams. At the end of the day, teams look to fill the void in production, even if they have to overpay a bit. So screw the WAR.
He put up great numbers. He is a keeper
You’re making a joke, right? He hit .222, struck out 206 times and grounded into 18 double plays. In other words, take away his homers and….nothing.
So why don’t we take away away all of John lesters wins from the season, and then I guess all he did was lose the Cubs games and diddnt win them anything.
Non-tendering him and then signing him to a new 1 year deal is an option right, obviously nearer the 2.5M that he signed for last offseason than the 8.1M arbitration prediciton?
The market for players like him is kinda clogged, but I think he’d still get way more than than 2.5 on the FA market
Ask the Cubs if they think the defense matrix carries too much weight in WAR player evaluation? How much were they paying Hayward to sit on the bench during game six of the NLCS???
Huh? His defense has been good this season. His hitting has been terrible and if you look at his WAR, you will see that he has been a negative hitter and a total that puts him below an average MLB player.
I think you can tender him and see if you can trade him before his hearing or try and get a deal before arbitration. If you can’t get that done before pull the tender. Now anybody that takes on Braun is going to want us eat money. We have plenty outfielders coming Braun said he will switch positions and work hard to learn it. He wants to be a leader and help the young players. I say take advantage of that. Yes I know his past in what he did. It happened he learned from it. Yes it was dumb and stupid with the way it ended but he paid his price. When we get real good teams say they need veteran leadership so let him finish what he wants to be apart of
They should either tender him or non-tender him and bring him back for less money since they have no other option at first base really
Another point is why pay him for playing for someone else and then pay another veteran when we’re good just pay him as long as he is productive
there is virtually no argument for non-tendering him. is he 1 dimensional? totally. could he fall back off a cliff again? absolutely. but the Brewers have about $5 dollars in payroll commitments next year, they have nobody in the system who needs the at bats, they have nothing to lose by playing him. if he hits again, somebody will overpay for him, if he doesn’t hit, you can non-tender him next year. Not to mention, you need to sell tickets, people will go to the park to watch a guy who can hit 40 homers and big ones at that. It may not be SABR approved, but you gotta put butts in the seats.
Tender him and trade him for something. Teams in the AL could use him at dh
Yes, absolutely, positively, there shouldn’t be any arguments about this. He is a”star” for a team that is truly awful. They need someone to build around. I get that he is getting older, but the Brewers cannot build around Braun really anymore because he is up there in age as well, and there is not really a pitcher to be their “star”. So why not. Tender him. Down the road, if it doesn’t work out, then swap him for a prospect
8 million for a him is to much. brewers aren’t contending so why pay him 8 million?
Why even play then if you are not even going to try? By your logic, the Brewers should just forfeit all their games and take 2017 off. Tell the Angles to do that as well I suppose, fat chance of them contending either.
All the reasons to tender him has already been said above, if you don’t get it by now you never will.
This is a ridiculous question. The Brewers have nobody to plug in at 1B that’s even close. As some have noted their payroll is at or near the bottom in baseball, You can throw all the WAR info out as far as I’m concerned and I watch nearly all the Brewer games. Carter is not that bad defensively (not anywhere near as bad as Alvarez for instance), and yes he strikes out a lot but he walked 76 times too and he’s a threat any time he steps into the batter’s box.
Frankly I don’t remember a single game where a Carter defensive lapse cost them the game. He digs out throws fine and plays most balls he gets to.
The Brewers led the NL in HR by right handed hitters. They won 73 games in a year when the two guys they were counting on being the number 1 and 2 starters disappointed. They’ve already accumulated a lot of prospects, and their lineup is pretty good right now (ask Joe Maddon). They are a starting pitcher breakout performance away from being in the wild card mix and a rebound by Nelson or a Josh Hader coming up and dominating like his stuff indicates he could and that changes the entire narrative.
It’s not about saving money, it’s about gaining control.
If you non-tender Chris Carter, he could sign someplace else and if he does, that means you will have a hole at 1B and no longer have Carter as a potential trade chip.
Agree that money’s not the issue but the Brewers still drew 2.3 million fans to see a team in transition. Along the way they discovered some very watchable players, Carter included. They need to reward those fans by at least putting an entertaining club on the field without sacrificing the future. Carter does both. It would be good for baseball for the Brewers and the Reds not to roll over and hand the Cubs another guaranteed 100+ win season. Brewers were a competitive 8-11 against Chicago and Carter had 4 dingers and 10 RBI vs. the Cubs, and have some exciting young talent already on the roster and close to major league ready, but none at 1B. Another year of Chris Carter even at $7-8 million is certainly in order.
I understand that the question has more merit than you would originally believe (as you explained). But the Brewers don’t have enough assets to not carry him.
Tender him and try to give him a one year deal in the 5-6 range (assuming he complies). If the Brewers are still out of it at the deadline, look for a trade counter part. Because he’s unlikely to have value in 2018 for 12-14 million assuming he repeats his performance.
I feel like I’m listening to a Pirates discussion circa 2002 with Cam Bonifay as GM. How do we run an MLB team while only spending $6mm?
Of course you tender this guy. Even if you don’t want him, any one of at least half a dozen AL teams looking for one-dimensional power (TOR, BAL, SEA, KC, OAK, CLE if Napoli leaves) will trade you some nice chips for him.
Non tender???? Wha???????????