Despite a last-place finish and their third straight losing season, the Rays are looking to reload rather than rebuild for 2017.
[Rays depth chart & payroll, via Roster Resource]
Guaranteed Contracts
- Evan Longoria, 3B: $94MM through 2022 ($13MM club option for 2023, $5MM buyout)
- Chris Archer, SP: $20.25MM through 2019 (plus club options for 2020-21)
- Logan Forsythe, 2B: $5.75MM through 2017 ($8.5MM club option for 2018, $1MM buyout)
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)
- Alex Cobb (5.061) – $4.0MM
- Bobby Wilson (5.057) – $1.1MM
- Drew Smyly (4.154) – $6.9MM
- Erasmo Ramirez (3.158) – $3.5MM
- Brad Boxberger (3.109) – $1.5MM
- Corey Dickerson (3.101) – $3.4MM
- Brad Miller (3.094) – $3.8MM
- Xavier Cedeno (3.060) – $1.2MM
- Jake Odorizzi (3.042) – $4.6MM
- Danny Farquhar (2.168) – $1.1MM
- Kevin Kiermaier (2.131) – $2.1MM
- Non-tender candidates: Wilson
Contract Options
- None
Free Agents
The Rays’ 68-94 record marked the first time the club had failed to crack the 70-win plateau since the 2007 season, which was also the last year that Tampa finished last in the AL East. There’s an argument to be made that a low-payroll team in a tough division should consider starting from scratch after such a rough season, yet the Rays certainly seem to have more talent than your usual last-place team. With so many interesting players on hand, it isn’t surprising that Rays president of baseball ops Matt Silverman and his front office is “hellbent on getting this team back into contention.”
That being said, Silverman and company have quite a bit of work to do in figuring out how to fix their roster’s flaws. Pretty much every unit on the team is a “yeah, but…” situation. The lineup finished with the sixth-most homers of any team in baseball, but only 13th of 30 teams in slugging percentage, 24th in runs scored, 27th in OBP and 28th in batting average. The bullpen had Alex Colome enjoy a breakout season as closer, but the relief corps as a whole ranked in the bottom half of the league in ERA, K/9, BB/9 and HR/9. The Rays’ rotation has long been touted for their collection of young arms, but they finished middle-of-the-pack in most starting pitching categories, and lost one of their young arms when Matt Moore was traded to the Giants at the deadline.
Let’s begin with the rotation, which stands as Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi, Blake Snell, Alex Cobb and Drew Smyly. Archer is looking to bounce back from something of a hard-luck year that saw a big spike in his home run totals, though most of his issues came only in the first half of the season. Smyly is also looking for a rebound year, Snell will enter his first full year in the bigs and Cobb will be looking for a full campaign after making just five starts in 2016 as he returned from Tommy John surgery.
Tampa’s starting five has a lot of talent, though on the whole is still weighed more towards promise than proven MLB results. Matt Andriese is also on hand as a rotation candidate, and I could be underrating his shot at a starting job. He posted the same 2.0 fWAR as Odorizzi and Smyly despite pitching significantly fewer innings, and Andriese topped them both in BB/9, home run rate, grounder rate, FIP, xXIP and SIERA. These stats aside, Andriese pitched quite a bit better in his 22 2/3 relief innings than he did in 105 IP as a starter, so the Rays could feel the righty is needed in the bullpen. He could easily slide back into the rotation for a spot start or perhaps a more permanent role change if Smyly, Cobb or Snell struggle.
With some starting depth available, could the Rays deal another arm? Archer and Odorizzi generated a lot of attention at the trade deadline before Moore was shipped out, and Smyly could also draw interest given his potential and two remaining years of control. This offseason’s free agent starting pitching market is painfully thin, so Silverman could demand an even larger return for one of his top starters now than he did at the deadline. Barring a blockbuster offer, I’d guess it would still be surprising to see the Rays deal Archer given his team-friendly contract (plus, most teams planning to contend don’t trade their ace). Odorizzi and Smyly, however, could be shopped given their rising arbitration costs.
In the event of a starting pitching trade, Andriese could be elevated to the rotation or the Rays could pursue a veteran on a minor league deal to provide depth or compete for the fifth starter’s job. Tampa Bay could also look to its farm system (i.e. Dylan Floro, Taylor Guerrieri or Brent Honeywell) for added starting or relief depth.
Any of these young arms could see work in relief anyway, as there is certainly room for improvement in the bullpen. The Rays will be building from the back of the bullpen outwards, as while Colome got a bit of peripheral luck (namely a whopping 93% strand rate), the Rays probably feel pretty good about their ninth-inning situation. Beyond Colome, southpaw Xavier Cedeno and righty Danny Farquhar had good seasons, long reliever Erasmo Ramirez was at least able to eat innings, and former closer Brad Boxberger is hoping to bounce back from an injury-ravaged year. Boxberger will look for better health and better control (as per his ungainly 7.03 BB/9 over 24 1/3 innings), and while the Rays would hope Boxberger is able to serve as a setup man, they can’t be counting on much in the wake of his lost season.
If Tampa looks to free agency to bolster the pen, expect the team to pursue veterans on inexpensive one-year deals in the hopes of finding a reclamation project. One option could be to re-sign a familiar face in Kevin Jepsen, who struggled badly last year but posted strong relief numbers in 2014-15.
As always, don’t expect the Rays to be big spenders this winter. After pushing payroll into the $74-75MM range in 2014 and 2015 in hopes of making a pennant run, the 2016 Opening Day payroll dropped to roughly $66.68MM. Tampa already has approximately $58.2MM committed to 14 players for 2017, between the slightly more than $25MM guaranteed to Archer, Logan Forsythe and Evan Longoria and the $33.2MM projected to the club’s large arbitration class.
Smyly and Odorizzi have the highest price tags of those 11 arb-eligible players, and as I noted earlier, the Rays could free up some payroll space by trading either. Ramirez’s $3.5MM projected salary could make him a trade chip as well. Despite his interesting usage as an old-school fireman type of reliever, Ramirez’s numbers weren’t much more than average, so he could be seen as expendable.
Trading Longoria would free up the most money, of course, though there isn’t any sign that the Rays would deal their franchise player. This is another case where, if the Rays are serious about contending, they’re pretty unlikely to deal an established star, especially since Tampa still has quite a few question marks around the diamond. Third base is a position the Rays don’t have to worry about thanks to Longoria, with second base (Forsythe) and center (Kevin Kiermaier) also not positions of need.
The Rays believe they have an answer at shortstop in the form of Matt Duffy, acquired in the Moore trade. Duffy was an outstanding third base defender over two seasons in San Francisco though he has only played 28 games at short in the big leagues. Duffy recently underwent surgery to fix an Achilles tendon issue that bothered him all season and quite likely contributed to his poor year at the plate. It could be that Duffy’s eventual future is as a utilityman given that top shortstop prospects Daniel Robertson and Willy Adames are both in the pipeline, but for now, Tampa Bay hopes Duffy can solidify a position that has been an issue.
Steven Souza is still the incumbent right fielder, though the Rays are still looking for a breakout from the 27-year-old. Brad Miller and Corey Dickerson are penciled in at first base and left field, respectively, with Dickerson stepping up as defender last year after a few subpar years in left with the Rockies. Miller has struggled with the glove pretty much everywhere he’s played around the diamond, though the Rays can live with some defensive issues at the less-critical position of first as long as Miller keeps slugging. Acquired in a six-player deal with the Mariners last winter, Miller delivered just the 11th 30-homer season in Rays history.
Miller and Dickerson are both left-handed hitters who haven’t shown much against left-handed pitching, so the Rays could use a right-handed bat or two to platoon at first or in left field. Richie Shaffer and Mikie Mahtook are internal options for these role, though Shaffer has actually hit righties much better over his brief career, while Mahtook couldn’t hit anything (39 wRC+) over 196 plate appearances last season. Mahtook is at least ticketed for the fourth outfielder job given his ability to handle all three outfield spots. First baseman Casey Gillaspie, the Rays’ first-round pick in the 2014 draft, hit very well in his first taste of Triple-A action last season and could earn himself a big league platoon role with a big Spring Training.
Looking at the 2016-17 free agent list for lefty-mashing bats in the Rays’ price range, players like Dae-Ho Lee or Franklin Gutierrez could be considered to join the 1B/DH/LF mix. Sean Rodriguez, a former Ray, would also fit as a right-handed bat though his big 2016 numbers and defensive versatility may earn him a bigger contract than Tampa can afford.
One free agent name that jumps out is the guy the Rays signed last winter as a lefty-masher. Steve Pearce posted an outstanding .908 OPS over 232 PA for the Rays before being dealt to Baltimore at the trade deadline. Unfortunately for Pearce, a flexor mass injury in his right forearm limited his time with the O’s and he underwent surgery to fix the problem in late September. Pearce will be sidelined until late January at the earliest and late March in a worst-case scenario, so until his diagnosis becomes clear, it’s hard to see him netting more than a one-year deal. The Rays could offer Pearce a chance to return to a familiar surrounding and potentially pick up there he left off in 2016, playing either at first or in left when a southpaw is on the mound. To sweeten the deal, the Rays could perhaps even take a flier on Pearce on a low-cost two-year deal to offer the veteran more long-term security.
Speaking of fliers, and this is purely speculation on my part, the Rays could use their unsettled catcher and DH spots as a way of looking into the Wilson Ramos market. Such a scenario would’ve been unthinkable a few weeks ago, when Ramos was on pace to score perhaps as much as a five-year deal as the top free agent catcher on the market. Then, unfortunately, Ramos suffered a torn right ACL for the second time in his career, ending his season and throwing his near-future into total uncertainty. It won’t be known how much time Ramos will miss until he actually has his surgery, though he himself speculated that if he can’t physically handle regular catching duties, he could be limited to playing for AL teams due to the designated hitter rule.
As MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted in that previous link, the Tropicana Field turf may not be an ideal landing spot for a catcher with bad knees, plus the Rays might still not be able to afford Ramos even if he ends up taking some type of prorated or incentive-heavy contract. It would behoove the Rays to explore all options behind the plate, however, given how catcher has been such a problem area for years. None of the catchers in the mix last year (Wilson, Curt Casali, Luke Maile, Hank Conger) did much to solve that problem, either offensively or defensively.
The Rays can’t afford Matt Wieters, but second-tier free agent catchers like Nick Hundley or Jason Castro could potentially be options if the Rays are willing to splurge (by their standards) on a notable multi-year contract. The likes of Carlos Ruiz, Alex Avila or Chris Iannetta would be even cheaper and maybe more realistic options. This offseason’s class is about as wide as a free agent catching market gets, so Tampa Bay can go in many directions for a sorely-needed upgrade.
Since free agency is something of a luxury for the Rays, expect Silverman to continue mining the trade market, as he did in his first two offseasons running Tampa’s front office. The baseball operations head has done a good job of adding new building blocks for expendable parts, though clearly Silverman hasn’t been able to find the ideal mix for plugging all the holes on the roster. This winter could go a long way towards determining the Rays’ future direction, as if they can’t get back on the winning track in 2017, hard questions may need to be asked about whether this core group of players are viable cornerstones for a contender or if a full rebuild could finally be necessary.
Wainofan
Weaver, Wong, Young reliever, Harrison bader, Magnus sierra from cards for odorizzi and either kiermaier or longoria
thetruth 2
Way too little, include Reyes.
rays111
I don’t really think the Rays would trade KK away, and they will not trade Longoria.
cardfan2011
If they wanna contend, then that probably takes out the chance of the Cards trading for Kiermaier.
Jeff Todd
I’ve seen no suggestion that Tampa Bay is interested in moving Kiermaier. Don’t see him as the most realistic target for the Cards.
Frozen rope
They don’t want to contend, the computers don’t seem to work real wellin TB, but I hear they are planning to construct a Frat Row right outside the stadium
allphilly
Feature request: Can you do the math and perhaps add to the “Guaranteed Salaries” section how much is actually guaranteed for 2017?
Jeff Todd
I added a link to the Roster Resource payroll page, which has that info.
Wainofan
Yeah I think you’re right on kiermaier. What would it take for cards to get say longoria and odorizzi? Cards would be able to take longorias contract and have carp, Wong/gyorko/ Diaz and longoria on if. Rotation of Martinez, waino, Reyes, odorizzi, leake with Lynn in bullpen then if he comes back, six man rotation to save young arms
Jeff Todd
Are you pushing Carpenter to the corner OF? They seem to want to add a new CF rather than going that route.
Longo is going to have a huge price tag; I don’t think TBR wants to move him at all. Odorizzi can probably be had, but I’d expect a steep ask there as well. For both? They are going to be demanding premium assets at or near majors.
I guess I don’t have a specific idea of a total demand, but I don’t really see STL using its resources to get that done.
thetruth 2
Reyes, Weaver, Diaz +?
greatgame 2
Cobb is done. Looks awful.
rays111
Everyone’s awful after Tommy John. He should probably do better next year.
24TheKid
What order are you doing these in, I was wondering when you are doing them on AL west teams?
Jeff Todd
They are roughly going form worst to first. So you can expect A’s and Angels to show up in relatively short order.
24TheKid
Ok thanks.
Brixton
Cam Rupp for Drew Smyly
budman3 2
Maybe Cobb for Knapp/Alfaro instead.
thetruth 2
TB passes.
rays111
I could see that happening. According to MLBTR, Smyly going to be asking for 6.9 million, which is way too much by Ray’s standings. Plus a 7-12 record with a 4.88 ERA doesn’t deserve that much. Considering he’s in “The Toughest League in MLB”,he could do better in the NL East. As for Rupp, the Rays need an everyday (or close to it ) catcher, and he filled that role in 2016. They would have him until 2020 and has been what they would need, Definitely better than a Jason Castro or Alex Avila, Marc Topkin
bucknerforhall
they could do a 4-1 for Archer
&
a 3 for 1 for Longoria – & be a better team
kc38
Im the biggest rays fan alive and im telling all of you right now longoria is not going anywhere. He just bounced back to a very good player from a couple down years. If they trade longoria their attendance would drop the negative. The Rays dont ever rebuild they recharge because their pitching is always so good. Longoria will be a day for life and is not going anywhere he is the face and an original from ’08 he practically is the Tampa Bay Rays. Archer isn’t going anywhere unless someone is desperate like the diamondbacks last year. And Kiermaier just forget it. He’s the platinum glove winner in center field. Not easy. He’s not getting traded either. Any other pitcher is available except Colome and snell. Our locks are Miller, Longo, Snell, and Forsythe. Any one else is tradeable. This was a much better team than the record showed. With the right pitchers healthy next year and some minor tweaking to the lineup like bringing Pearce back and getting Duffy for a full season and any other catcher this team will compete.
kc38
Ray * not day
bucknerforhall
I understand your point
but last off season – you could have gotten Kyle Hendricks, W. Contreras, & Javy baez
from the Cubs -for Archer. Which would have made them a much better team.
similar deals might be out there this year. Guys that are ready to play – with 6 years of control.
the Souza trade is the 1 that killed the Rays. If they had J. Ross & Trea Turner right now – wow.
I dont think it would happen but – Cubs will move some guys this off season – Rays could go – Soler, Ian Happ, J candelario, & J. Hammell for C. Archer – then move J Hammell & his $9 mil for 2 more guys.
that would make the rays better – in 2017 & long term
baronbeard
We listened to a few offers on Archer, Dodgers being one of them. If I remember correctly they started off with the deal mandatorily including Pederson Seager/Urias. It’s going to be a steep price.
MikePLV10
If the rays are willing to deal Archer the BRAVES could be a good fit.. possibly Inciarte or Mallex Smith, 2 or our top 4 pitching prospects (all are very highly rated) plus one more player (maybe Adonis Garcia-plays better in AL, though his D seemed to improve this yr, could allow Longoria to DH occasionally) Thoughts?
MikePLV10
2 of our*
Jeff Todd
No way that’s happening. Archer not only has an ace’s track record, he’s incredibly cheap. Nobody is getting a buy-low opportunity at this point.
Same essential situation as with Sale; while Archer obviously wasn’t as good last year, his contract is even better. And Adonis Garcia isn’t moving the needle for Tampa Bay.
MikePLV10
I don’t believe that was a buy low trade offer, considering the braves top 4 pitching prospects are in the top 100. Both Inciarte and Smith are very good players, had smith not have gotten hurt both would be highly targeted. I added Garcia because of his bat and ability to to give Evan a break.. Tampa has a good stable of MLB ready pitchers, this would give the 2 MLB players and 2 high upside minor league arms.
thetruth 2
Swanson, top 3 pitching prospects,
MikePLV10
Ok.
southi
At one time I was thinking that the Braves would likely target Odorizzi, but now I think the Rays will simply ask too much and IF the Braves end up making a deal with Tampa it will more likely be for Smyly or as an outside the box answer for Andriese. They could both be had for less than Odorizzi and certainly far less than Archer. Smyly will be looking to rebound from a disappointing season. Andriese has struggled as a starter but performed better out of the bullpen so I’m not sure if the Braves (or other teams for that matter) look at him as a potential starter or just an emergency one.
The bottom line is that teams seeking pitching will definitely at least inquire about Tampa’s young arms. The price will be high and someone will choose to pay it.
MikePLV10
I would like to see the braves trade for a young top of the rotation pitcher, with what we have coming in the minors and draft next season, I believe they can afford to make that happen. Obviously they will need to address catcher and possibly another starter..
OaklandKAM
Looks like Danny Valencia is a good fit for the Rays’ needs RHH bat with good contact, power and OBP, especially good against LHP, and can play 1B/DH/LF. Valencia is projected at $5 mil in arb, very reasonable for his production. He is from Florida (went to “The U”) and I think would fit very well there. Teams should talk.
greiunfioewfm
I’d really like to see the Rays call Pittsburgh about a deal centered around McCutchen for Chris Archer. Rays need an impact bat, and the Pirates were in on Archer at the deadline. Rays have a 6 man rotation right now, and the Pirates have Meadows knocking on the door in the OF. Plus with Kiermaier in center Cutch can move to an outfield corner where he probably belongs. Both players severely underperformed last year but I think the framework is there
stymeedone
Given the demand for pitching, Tampa Bay would be better off asking for Meadows. McCutchen doesn’t have enough control left to give up Archer for him.
jakebeard15
Rays are going to use one of their arms Shaffer in order to get a solid catcher. EX: Cam Rupp, Castillo from AZ, I wouldn’t rule out Realmuto either(rays were begging for him at the deadline). And they might go out and try to sign a back end of the bullpen type of arm.
rays111
Don’t forget this is the same team that traded Cy Young Winner David Price, All-Stars Scott Kazmir and James Shields, ALCS MVP MMatt Garza, Hellboy(Jeremy Hellickson) and others. Plus, don’t forget all the players that had bouncebacks this and last year. Ex. Matt Joyce, Ben Zobrist, Asdrubal Cabrera,Fernando Rodney, Will Myers. Add on the players that did well with the Rays before they were dealt.(Nate Karns, Brandon Guyer, Matt Moore,Steve Pearce,Joey Butler,John Jaso)
rays111
Some Trades
Cards;Weaver ,Reyes, Tuivailala, Tommy Pham, Harrison Bader, Good Reliever
Rays: Jake Odorizzi, Eddie Gamboa, Taylor Motter, Dylan Floro, Cameron Seizer, Good Outfielder
Houston Astros:Francis Martes, J.D. Davis, Chris Cotton
Rays: Drew Smyly, Brad Boxberger, Tyler Sturdevant
Other Teams
Dodgers,Braves,Phils,Brewers
Jeff Todd
Those aren’t realistic scenarios for the Rays in my view. Reyes isn’t going in a deal for Odorizzi, let alone with Weaver also included. And Martes is a pretty danged highly-regarded prospect who could contribute as soon as next year, while Smyly and Boxberger both had really rough seasons.
rays111
Jeff Todd
Just figured since the Rays don’t have the best farm system, they could add to it with good players. But now that you mentioned it, it would take much more to get Reyes and Weaver in a deal,They could get Weaver by adding Austin Pruitt or Faria.
Maybe add Brent Honeywell or Chih-Wei Hu in the Astros deal? The Rays deemed Honeywell their best starter in farm system, and Hu carried a 7-8 record with a 2.59 ERA over 24 starts in AA, including a .241 opponent’s batting average.