MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.
Despite a virtually unprecedented sell-off at the non-waiver trade deadline, the Yankees were in the thick of the Wild Card race through late September thanks to some significant strides from their young talent. With the path to playing time for a number of upstart players beginning to clear, they’ll look to supplement their increasingly youthful core in an effort to return to postseason play next year.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Jacoby Ellsbury, OF: $89.57MM through 2020 (including $5MM buyout of 2021 club option)
- Masahiro Tanaka, RHP: $89MM through 2020 (may opt out of contract after the 2017 season)
- Brian McCann, C: $34MM through 2018 (plus 2019 club option)
- Starlin Castro, 2B: $31MM through 2019 (including $1MM buyout of 2020 club option)
- Chase Headley, 3B: $26MM through 2018
- Brett Gardner, OF: $25MM through 2018 (including $2MM buyout of 2019 club option)
- CC Sabathia, LHP: $25MM through 2017
- Tyler Clippard, RHP: $4.15MM through 2017
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)
- Michael Pineda (5.099) – $7.8MM
- Dustin Ackley (5.087) – $3.2MM
- Nathan Eovaldi (5.013) – $7.5MM
- Adam Warren (4.031) – $2.3MM
- Didi Gregorius (3.159) – $5.1MM
- Dellin Betances (3.078) – $3.4MM
- Austin Romine (3.045) – $900K
- Aaron Hicks (3.041) – $1.4MM
- Tommy Layne (2.139) – $1.2MM
- Non-tender candidates: Ackley, Eovaldi
Other Financial Commitments
- Alex Rodriguez, DH: $21MM through 2017
Free Agents
- Mark Teixeira (retiring), Billy Butler
New York Yankees Depth Chart; Yankees Payroll Overview
Few would’ve pegged the Yankees as likely contenders after dealing Andrew Miller, Aroldis Chapman and Carlos Beltran prior to the non-waiver trade deadline, but the team hung around in the Wild Card race, buoyed largely by the superhuman performance of rookie Gary Sanchez and late flourishes from arms like CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda and Masahiro Tanaka — each of whom was excellent in September.
However, while Sabathia, Pineda and Tanaka each finished strong, that performance is potentially misleading. Each member of that trio entered the 2016 campaign with significant health questions — Sabathia’s knee, Pineda’s shoulder, Tanaka’s elbow — and it’d be unwise to expect that group to combine for 30 starts apiece once again in 2017. With the loss of Nathan Eovaldi to Tommy John/flexor repair surgery, the Yankees’ pitching depth took a further hit, leaving it unclear as to exactly who can shoulder the load for the rotation next season.
Certainly, Tanaka, Pineda and Sabathia are penciled into the mix, but the two additional spots beyond that group of veterans is up for grabs. Chad Green, Luis Severino, Bryan Mitchell and Luis Cessa are all candidates, and Adam Warren has done his share of starting for the Yankees in the past as well. But it’s not entirely clear that Severino’s future is in the rotation after a ghastly 8.50 ERA as a starter (47 2/3 innings) against a ridiculous 0.39 ERA as a reliever (23 1/3 innings). Obviously, those are small samples, but questions about Severino’s long-term ability to start date back to his days as a prospect, and the 2016 season certainly lends some credence to those who advocate for him to join Dellin Betances as a rotation prospect that instead thrives as a power arm in the bullpen. The 52 strikeouts that Green piled up in just 45 2/3 innings make him the next-most intriguing name of the bunch, but he finished the season on the shelf due to a flexor strain of his own, so there’s little certainty with regard to the 25-year-old.
The free-agent market is notoriously thin this offseason, though if GM Brian Cashman wants to utilize the financial flexibility he gained via the retirement of Mark Teixeira and the shedding of the Beltran, Chapman and Miller contracts to chase upside, the Yankees can certainly afford to beat the market for Rich Hill. The 36-year-old’s renaissance has been one of the most remarkable storylines of the past season, and Hill is unquestionably the only thing resembling a top-of-the-rotation pitcher on the free-agent market. He’d add his own laundry list of injury question marks to the Yankees’ ledger, of course, but Hill’s 2.21 ERA and 178-to-39 K/BB ratio across his past 146 1/3 big league innings (postseason included) are difficult to ignore.
The other top names on the market include Jeremy Hellickson, who figures to reject a qualifying offer (which curbed the Yankees’ free-agent pursuits last winter in an offseason in which they remarkably elected not to sign a single MLB free agent), and former Yankee Ivan Nova. Bounceback arms will be plentiful, with the likes of Charlie Morton, Brett Anderson, Bud Norris, Jake Peavy and Henderson Alvarez all available if they’re comfortable trying to reestablish themselves in the tight confines of Yankee Stadium.
The trade market represents Cashman’s other primary avenue to a big league rotation piece, but the GM has indicated that he doesn’t think he’s at the point where he’s ready to offload a newly acquired plethora of high-end minor league talent in order to procure a front-line starter. That could be a smokescreen and could change as opportunities arise throughout the offseason, but for now it sounds like Yankees fans should think more along the lines of Ervin Santana than Chris Sale or Chris Archer when it comes to trade targets. The subtraction of a number of a number of expensive commitments — Teixeira is already off the payroll, and both Alex Rodriguez and Sabathia will be next offseason — also allows Cashman to consider the possibility of taking on a burdensome contract from another club that would be more manageable for the Yankes. Whether it’s achieved through free agency or trades, adding an arm that’s controllable beyond the 2017 campaign seems imperative, as the Yanks could see Tanaka, Pineda and Sabathia all depart next offseason.
Turning from the rotation to the bullpen, Cashman and his staff have room to add at least one arm and could possibly pick up multiple relievers this winter. Dellin Betances, Tyler Clippard and Tommy Layne, who inked a big league deal with the Yankees following his release from the Red Sox, all figure to be locks for next year’s relief corps. Warren, too, will be in this mix unless spring injuries push him into the rotation. If the determination is made that the bullpen is the best spot for Severino, he’ll break camp in the big league ’pen as well. That leaves at least two spots somewhat unsettled.
The Yanks have internal options, of course. Jonathan Holder’s ludicrous minor league numbers earned him a late call-up and will place him in the mix for a spot next spring, and one of Green, Cessa or Mitchell could certainly end up in the ’pen as well if they’re not in the rotation. Beyond that, the Yankees have Chasen Shreve, Nick Goody, Ben Heller, James Pazos and Richard Bleier, giving them plenty of in-house means to fill out the bullpen.
That said, the one place that the free-agent market is stacked with high-end talent this winter is relief pitching, and the Yankees can certainly afford to play at the top of the market. There’s already been plenty of speculation about the Yankees making a run at a reunion with Chapman, and it won’t be a surprise if the Yanks are linked to other premium relievers like Kenley Jansen and former Yankees draftee/farmhand Mark Melancon. The Yankees’ front office saw first-hand how powerful a trio of lights-out relievers can be early this season when deploying the popular “No Runs DMC” group of Chapman, Miller and Betances. While Miller won’t be back in 2017, the Yankees could at least pair Betances with another dominant bullpen arm, and it’s possible of course that Severino emerges as a shutdown weapon to join them.
While there are questions throughout the pitching staff, the other side of the roster is more settled. If anything, the Yankees’ contingent of position players comes with the opposite problem; the team has more veterans and MLB-ready young players than spots to play them. The emergence of Sanchez behind the plate calls Brian McCann’s future with the team into question and makes him a strong candidate to be dealt this winter. There have already been rumblings connecting him to his former organization, the Braves, and other teams certainly figure to at the very least kick the tires — especially now that one of the top catching targets in free agency, Wilson Ramos, comes with an uncertain future due to a torn ACL.
McCann is owed $17MM in each of the next two seasons which is probably too steep, but if the Yankees are willing to include some cash to ease the financial burden for an acquiring team, they should find a taker. And considering the fact that McCann still hit 20 homers and turned in a league-average batting line (per park-adjusted metrics like OPS+ and wRC+), the Yankees can reasonably ask for some minor league talent in return. McCann won’t net premium prospects, but there’s still some positive trade value if the Yankees are picking up part of the tab. If no viable trade option emerges, rotating him between DH, catcher and first base is something the Yanks can afford as well, of course.
The Yankees also have enough depth in the outfield to consider moving a veteran. The nearly $90MM remaining on Jacoby Ellsbury’s deal and his full no-trade clause make trading him exceptionally difficult, but Brett Gardner’s remaining $25MM is downright reasonable. The sturdy veteran hit .261/.351/.362 with seven homers and 16 stolen bases this season while playing excellent defense in left field. And while Gardner hasn’t played center field regularly since 2013, he’s still capable at the position and could be an option for teams that consider the free-agent options too expensive and/or too risky.
Dealing Gardner, presumably to improve the rotation, would allow the Yankees to pursue a younger free agent or trade target. Alternatively, the team could stick with internal options like Mason Williams, Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks and perhaps Tyler Austin (who saw a bit of time in the outfield last season) to complement Ellsbury while waiting for top prospect Clint Frazier (acquired in the Miller blockbuster) to force his way onto the Major League roster. Frazier only recently turned 22 and hit just .230/.271/.385 in his first taste of Triple-A this past season, so he looks like a player who needs some more reps in the upper minors, but he could be in the team’s plans next summer if he performs well.
On the infield dirt, the Yankees have more certainty. Didi Gregorius has emerged as a strong all-around shortstop, and Cashman spoke of second baseman Starlin Castro like someone he still believes can grow, telling FOX’s Ken Rosenthal in September that Castro still has “untapped potential” and may not be done developing just yet. Said Cashman: “He’s 26, but it feels like he’s 22 or 23. He can be a great player.”
Looking to the corners, the Yankees have Chase Headley installed at third base for another two seasons. While he was one of the most criticized players in the league due to a poor April, Headley quietly turned in solid production over the season’s final five months, hitting .265/.338/.418 with 14 homers and strong defense at the hot corner. He’s not the 30-homer monster that he looked to be back with the 2012 Padres, but Headley has 15-homer pop, good plate discipline (9.6 percent walk rate) and saved seven runs with his glove in 2016 by measure of both DRS and UZR. He’s a useful and reasonably paid option at third, and while some may be receptive to the idea of moving him to make a run at an elite option like free agent Justin Turner, that would add another long-term contract to the ledger which would begin with Turner’s age-32 campaign. For a Yankees team that has prioritized getting younger, that might not be in the cards.
Across the diamond, Greg Bird is expected to be back up to full strength after missing the season due to shoulder surgery. He’ll compete with Austin for the right to fill the spot that was vacated when Teixeira retired, and it’s conceivable that both could make the roster and split time between first base, DH and (in Austin’s case) left field. The Yankees, though, also seem like a reasonable fit to target a veteran bat at first base/DH in the event that the combination of Bird and Austin doesn’t provide the necessary offensive output to man those two positions. That’s especially true if Cashman finds a trade partner for McCann, who functioned as the primary designated hitter down the stretch in September.
Edwin Encarnacion is the top name on the market in that regard, but it’s certainly possible that the Yankees don’t want to tack on a long-term commitment to a player entering his age-34 season just as their commitments to Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez drop off the ledger. If that’s the case, Cashman could wait out the market and see if a bargain emerges. After all, there are more first base/DH types available in free agency than there are teams with a need and a starting spot open. One of Brandon Moss, Pedro Alvarez, Steve Pearce, Mitch Moreland, Logan Morrison or Adam Lind could ultimately fall through the cracks and be had on a cheap short-term deal that will allow the Yankees to maintain long-term financial/roster flexibility.
The coming offseason figures to once again be an active one for the Yankees on the trade market, and it’s highly unlikely that Cashman will maintain last winter’s dormant state on the free-agent market. With a clear need in the rotation and some room for creativity both in the bullpen and the outfield, it’s not unreasonable to expect a fair number of new faces on next year’s roster. But the Yankees demonstrated in 2016 that they’re within arm’s reach of contending, and it’s easy to envision them back in the thick of the AL East race next year without a massive overhaul of the roster.
I think Cessa has a chance to be useful going forward. He pitched pretty well in August/Septemper and has good stuff.
I think signing EE or Trumbo would be a massive waste and should be avoided. Other than Chapman, I think they should probably stay away from any non-filler FA signing. The only reason to sign a huge deal would be to add a quality starter to the rotation, so if Otani is posted in the next year or two, then go all out, but that’s pretty much it.. They’ve done a great job rebuilding so far, and 2017 is a year for the kids to grow and hopefully flourish.
In an ideal offseason for the Yankees
1) Signing Chapman or Jansen could help boost a young bullpen. While Chapman did do well in the beginning of the season he has not ruled out a return after being traded. Jansen will also demand an equal salary but the Yankees would likely favor Chapman due to past relations. But the Yankees could also make another bullpen signing in Malancon or acquire Ziegler to help create a three headed monster again
2) Gardner is traded for a starting rotation inning eater like Santana. This opens up outfield opportunities for young guys like Mason Williams, Aaron Judge, Tyler Austin, Rob Refsnyder, and hopefully a productive Clint Frazier. While creating a manageable hole in the corner outfield the Yankees would help fix an ugly rotation.
3) Brian McCann is traded to the Braves even if we have to cover a lot of his salary. McCann can still be useful in New York but seeing how much talent is coming up next season and the following season paying $17 million to a DH just doesn’t seem to fit into the Yankees plans now. Getting a top 100 prospect for McCann would benefit the farm system as well.
4) Free Agent bargain hunting could have a big effect on the Yanks. Signing a guy like Alvarez to help at 1st and DH while also being able to provide 3B support if absolutely necessary (seeing that Austin could play 3B, while Refsnyder failed to adjust) although his defensive numbers are not the greatest. Having a power hitting bat on a team where no one reached the 30 HR plateau could be useful AT THE RIGHT PRICE.
While I do not believe the Yankees will make all these moves any acquisitions at this point can only really help. We need rotation and bullpen help and having a utility player or 1B/DH could prove useful
The chances of the Yankees getting a top 100 prospect from the Braves (or likely any NL team) is somewhere between slim and none, and it’s heavily leaning more towards the none. His value would be practically negative to a NL team, since he wouldn’t be able to DH. Even if they cover significant salary it’s not going to enhance it enough to pull in a top 100.
If the Yankees are looking to get something significant then they’re going to need to cover a decent portion of the salary plus focus on AL trading partners. Only way I can see that happening.
Yanks need a established major league hitter in the middle of their line-up, I thin Turner is the best option. He is young enough and has done well in the playoffs. Take some of the Tex money and give it to him. Headley can be a back up or trade him if possible. Even better, add either Encarnarcion or Napoli along with Jansen or Chapman. Trade both Gardner and McCann if you can get some young front end pitching .
You are obviously not paying attention to there long term plan. They will never sign EE, Napoli, or any other mid 30’s ball player for multiple years and 20+ mil. They are getting younger and trying to build a team that can make a run over multiple seasons. They can’t spend the “Tex” money because it will keep them over the luxury tax. Which means if they gave a guy like EE 20 mil next season, they’d really be paying 30 mil for him. Do you honestly want to see another aging shell of a bat stuck in pinstripes years past their prime? The only free agents yanks sign are relief pitchers and a one year contract for a DD/1b type of guy.
Also, the Yanks would have to give up their first round pick if they sign EE which is another reason they won’t even think about it. As for Justin Turner, the Yanks would have to pay him enough to shave, and that’s unlikely to happen as well.
No team would take McCann and his contract for nothing in return and you’re worried about getting a top 100 prospect for him????
Agreed with the others. Yankees won’t get a Top 100 for McCann, even if they ate the majority of his contract. The Braves would like him back, but they don’t need him. I think the most optimistic return would involve a high-risk arm like Toussaint, Sims, or Fried.
And also doubtful a Gardner-Santana trade would take place. They already have Buxton/Kepler/Sano/Santana/Rosario/Grossman in the outfield. And if they were to trade Santana, it’d be for a younger guy or prospects. Really no need at all for Gardner.
Fried made significant progress in his return towards the end of the season. Safe to say now the Braves would not even consider including him in a trade that only returned McCann. Toussaint is even a stretch.
Considering the Yanks were asking for Folty and Inciarte for McCann I think the Braves will never be a realistic trade partner. That would be a serious overpay even if the Braves were in the AL where McCann has more value.
He did say optimistic trade. I still think a trade could be done with Sims at the high end and maybe a Gant/Whalen + at the bottom.
How about McCann to the Nats, they have Feede and Glover and they will need a good catcher to relplace Ramos.
I think they would rather resign Ramos. They were talking about getting him back regardless of the surgery. We shall see what his market shapes out to be.
People are undervaluing McCann. Plus the free agent catcher market is as bad as the free agent starting pitcher market. If you want a good catcher you are going to have to come to the Yankees with a good offer. They don’t need to clear salary or his roster spot and he fills the DH/C role nicely, otherwise the Yankees have a bad hitting catcher when Sanchez isn’t catching.
Why do you think they could get a good pitcher for Gardner, he is an older .260 hitting outfielder with no power. A dime a dozen. McCann not going to bring a top 100 prospect. A mid 30 year old catcher, really?
Because Gardner is a 3WAR player with a bargain contract that’s why.
And they have absolutely no need to trade him. Williams, Hicks, Austin, etc. are not going to push him off, he fills a spot until Clint Frazier shows he’s ready. Even then he is a 3 WAR player with speed who can play CF and be your leadoff hitter (.obp above average for leadoff hitters), you aren’t getting him for a bag of balls.
I could imagine scenarios involving the Nats (Gio Gonzalez), Cards (Jaime Garcia), Cubs (Jason Hammel), and maybe the Rangers (Derek Holland). All would be dependent upon each team’s assessment of those pitchers, their internal needs, and interest in Gardner — along with the Yanks’ views on the other side — and would require varying offsets in one way or the other. But it’s plausible to imagine a somewhat parallel swap of assets coming together.
Ziegler is not a monster head. Decent pitcher but not dominant on the same level as D , M or C. Plus he seems to me to be a NL pitcher , I do not speak from stats or direct knowledge on that it is just a gut feeling that he would not fair well in the AL east.
Pineda could barely make it into the fifth inning in September. He should be the relief pitcher, allowing severino to grow as a starter.
Pineda still has the stuff to be a number two pitcher, I would look for a big turn around for him. His numbers sabermetrically are good. The Yanks have some good young arms in Cessa, Green, Mitchell, and Severino. I would think one of them steps up next year after getting their feet wet this year. I think it will be Mitchell.
You think they’d trade Pineda at the deadline next year? If he starts off well, I could see them loading up on a few more prospects to get ready for a big trade down the road. Of course if he finally gets some consistancy, I could also see them taking their chances with a QO.
Healthwise, the Yankees were especially fortunate, particularly in the rotation. Who ever expected Tanaka, CC and Pineda to make almost every start. , or for CC to pitch as well as he did except for a bad stretch in the middle. . Cessa and Mitchell showed they could be decent middle/back end of the rotation arms, Severino was a big let down, but thats what happens when you jump a young arm 44% in IP like they did the year before, so maybe he bounces back
Sanchez should signs of regression.batting 222 with a 311 OBP his last 135 PA, but he is definitely going to be a good asset at C and an upgrade over McCann.
Bird coming off labrum surgery might take awhile to get his power back, as these things tend to linger.. Guys like BJ Upton and Adrian Gonzalez never fully came back.
Judge looks like he needs more time in AAA before getting another shot.
Hal probably want to get under the LT threshold next year, depending on how big a jump there is to the LT threshold. He might want to try and buy low on Bautista and maybe go after Jansen to close instead of Delin who looked pretty shaky at the end
One has to wonder what happens if the Yankees did not sell and still acquired Clippard and brought up Sanchez. McCann and A-Rod were not pulling their weight, and Beltran was already getting most of the reps at DH. Maybe if they had picked up Reddick and Hill as well, who knows. With that 3 headed monster and Clippard, they might have went all the way this year and grabbed number 28. They were playing their best baseball of the season at the sell as they headed in Tampa Bay, and over the previous 75 games had played at a 92 W pace. That 9-17 start to the season really hurt. I think they pulled the plug too early myself. Got some nice talent, but nobody that looks like a sure thing to be a game changer.
Remember Severino is very young, He could pitch like Stroman next year.
Man… the Eovaldi trade really hurts. I did not like it at the time and now it’s looking worse and worse. Not only did Eovaldi regress in his development of the splitter, he’s out with TJS.
The Yankees really should have kept Chapman, Miller and Beltran if they really wanted to contend for a Wild Card spot. I know they said trading Chapman didn’t mean they were waving the white flag on the season, but it did. He’s not the kind of guy you trade if you have any intention of making the postseason (and doing well in the postseason).
But thanks to the Yankees’ deadline maneuvering, they are astronomically better set up for 2017 and beyond. If I’m Cashman I re-sign Chapman, trade McCann to whoever will take on the most of his contract and trade for Ervin Santana.
The best for the Yanks this winter would be move Gardner and McCann for some young pitching like Newcomb of Braves and Fried or Feede and Glover of the Nats for McCann. For Gardner they should look to the Astros for Paulino and Whitley. If they can move them they have a couple of moves they could make to make them contenders next year. Sign Turner, Enacarnarcion, and Chapman or any one of the three in that order. Jansen would be a good substiitute for Chapman he might be better. Of course they will be a lot of competition for all of these players.
Newcomb and Fried. Have mercy.
My God, THE YANKEES AREN’T GETTING A TOP 100 PROSPECT FOR MCCANN!!!!!!!!!!!! GOD YOU’RE PERSISTENT!
Fried and Fedde aren’t top prospects from what I see.
Fried was a top 100 prospect, but was out for 2015. Towards the end of last season he was making significant progress back towards his old form. So he’s on the bubble at this point, but with his upside and progress the Braves would be more likely to treat him like one.
Just like they weren’t going to get anything for a reliver, or a setup reliver, or a 39 year old DH. Yup, no chance of that happening for a above average player at a premium position, certainly not after the Yanks pick up a hefty chunk of his salary.
The people who are saying the yankees won’t get a top 100 for mccann are the same who never though the yankees will get torres for 2 months of chapman .. the C position is slim there’s a point where no only the braves want him and by the way .. there’s any point of trading mccann and paying all that money left for 2 ,3 tier prospects? ..just watch if the yankees trade him they will pay a lot of money and get good return probably one top 100 and a second tier prospect.
While I won’t deny that McCann definitely has value as a catcher, I see it difficult to see trading for him as a first option ahead of signing one of the free agent catchers at a MUCH lower price. You may ask Why? Well unless the Yankees pay a SIGNIFICANT part of his salary you’d be trading prospects AND paying his salary. That makes acquiring McCann much more expensive than if you just signed a guy like Castro, or Avila, or even Wieters (if a QO isn’t attached to him) for a two year (or even 3 year) deal. I actually expect Castro and Avila to sign two year deals and you could spend the salary difference you would have spent on McCann towards another need for your team. In other words it makes very little business sense to spend more money, more resources (prospects) on McCann than on other options.
Besides that BMac has a no trade clause and it will probably be costly just to get him to waive that.
The main issue with relying on the FA market is that others are vying for those players as well. A trade early in the off season will help you avoid in getting into a bidding war. That’s one reason why the Yankees are trying to trade with the Braves. The Braves have a need and prospects they can pass with. The Nats, however, would be best suited going to the market, because the prospects being tossed around wont be on a train to NY from DC.
Agreed, which was why I specified in my response a FIRST option. But I would expect in the Braves aspect that they will sincerely look at several of the free agents before committing to trading for McCann (please realize I’m still a fan of McCann, but I just don’t think that the Braves trading for him -especially if a significant chunk of change isn’t eaten- is their best or even most likely option).
Lots of things would have to fall into place (both from a negative point of view-like the top few free agent catcher matches being gone,and a positive pint of view- the Yanks to eat some salary, AND McCann to waive his nta) for the Braves to acquire him. Not saying that it isn’t possible, or that the Braves don’t have the pieces to get it done. Just saying I don’t think it isn’t the first choice or the most likely one from a Braves standpoint especially.
It’s also the same people who thought they wouldn’t get anything for 2 months of Beltran and wouldn’t even be able to give Nova away. I’m sure they would have also said Justin Wilson would never net a starter of any quality either.
Completely different situation. McCann has negative trade value. He isn’t worth what he’s making. The Yankees would have to pay part of his contract just to trade him for like a AAAA reliever and A LOT MORE of his contract if they want to get back a top 100 prospect.
Meanwhile, Chapman wasn’t owed any money after this season and the Cubs saw him as “the missing piece.”
Chapman was key in the Cubs getting a championship. McCann will not do the same for anybody. Braves would give a top pitching prospect like Newcomb or Fried or another like Foltynewicz for McCann plus Headley plus 30 million cash. That removes 30 mil from the payroll and gives the Yankees another great pitching prospect for two fringe players.
I wouldn’t dump McCann unless the proper return came up, and that’s hard to see occurring. He’s still an average to above average catcher, Sanchez is very young, no catcher can play all the time, and what’s the point of giving him away (and paying most of his salary). McCann probably has more value to the Yankees than he does in a deal.
The only significant free agent the Yankees should target is either Chapman or Jansen. Definitely don’t overpay for an SP in a lean market. And say “No!” to aging hitters like Bautista and Encarnacion. With all of the talent the Yanks have in the minors and the talent in next 2 free agent classes it’s not worth a giving out a 4,5, or 6 year deal for one or two good seasons of production. Yanks have done that before.
As a straight deal McCann and Gardner have little value. However, their salaries are already sunk costs for the Yankees. That means that if the Yankees eat a big chunk of each salary those players are valuable in trades. That doesn’t mean they’ll get a number 2 starter or a top prospect for them, but they won’t have to accept cannon fodder for them either.
I’d see what Green, Cessa, and Mitchell can do before I sign a FA or sell the farm for an SP. Yankees also have some intriguing SP’s in the minors that could start coming up in September or next year. Bring some of those to big boy spring training as non-roster invitees. Above all, make roster decisions for long term success and not for a one and done shot at the playoffs.
Where does the $4.25MM for Clippard come from in the piece. Everything I see shows just over $6MM due Clippard for the 2017 season?
His contract was $12.25MM over two years, which was paid out as a $4MM signing bonus, a $4.1MM salary in 2016 and a $4.15MM salary in 2017.
How does he count against the Yankees luxury tax number? Does it go as 4mil or 6mil?
The Yankees get charged $6.125MM against their Luxury Tax number for 2017 even though they are only responsible fo just over $4MM of his salary.
$4MM of his contract was a signing bonus. NYY just picked up the remaining salary.
To: Jeff Todd and Steve Adams, Thank you.
Here is how the off season is going to go.
First. Sign Chapman. He’s coming back to pinstripes even if they aren’t the highest offer. He knows how special it is to wear the Pinstripes.
Second. Trade McCann to the Braves for a high upside pitcher.
Third. Swap Gardner for Gio Gonzalez.
Fourth. Move Mason Williams to center and Ellsbury to left.
Fifth. Stand pat. Once the dead weight was dumped at the deadline, this became a 95 win team with the young studs Cessa and Mitchell in the rotation. Sanchez at catcher gives them the possibility of the first 50 homer season ever by a catcher.
First – Not necessarily. Money doesn’t always talk. If the Cubs win the WS (a big If), and offer him a big contract, good chance he stays right in Chicago (also a chance he leaves and goes elsewhere, like Sandoval)
Second – Not sure the Braves will do that
Third – That’s a fair trade but I’m not sure if the Nats want Gardner
Fourth – Why move Ellsbury out of CF if he can still field there? You also can’t rely on Mason Williams (or Jacoby for that matter) staying healthy
Fifth – No, don’t stand pat. They still need a bat. Offense is what cost this team a playoff shot. In your scenario you traded the team’s leadoff hitter and highest OBP player in Gardner (2nd highest if you include Sanchez). That is immediately a step backward Unless you replace Gardner with someone better.
I don’t see them getting a bat this year unless it’s on a one year contract, bad contract swap, or the collective bargaining raises the luxury tax to 200+.
The Yanks want to see what they really have in the minors while resetting the luxury at the same time. I think they will stand pat and then spend big on bats in 2018 when they get CC and Arod off and again in 2019 when the big FA’s hit the market.
That would be a good idea, but a lot of their top prospects won’t hit the majors until 2018.
1. I get the feeling Chapman is going to just take the highest offer, even if that offer comes from the worst team in the league.
2. They’re gonna have to eat a LOT of McCann’s contract if they want to get back anything with any upside.
The Cubs. Dodgers, Giants, Cards, Yanks, and others could all be looking for closers this winter with only Chapman, Jansen, and Melancon available.
Which is why it is best for Chapman to wait out the open market
Isn’t Butler signed through 2017 with the A’s on the hook for all but the minimum?
Just say no to Rich Hill. He would be okay on a one year deal but someone will overpay and give him three years. No need to sign a 37 year old for multiple of years. Risk is to great. He pitched more MLB innings this year than the last 6 years combined.
I would definitely make a run at Chapman especially since there will be no QO attached. Jansen for 3 years would be okay but he is a big guy. That will show up somewhere down the line.
No other free agents except non QO players on a one year deal. Two years for a real bargain.
Deal McCann. The money is already spent. Do the best you can. He will be worth even less next year. Older lefties, who the shift kills, will be the new red headed stepchild.
Gardner should be dealt if you fill a need or get value. Ellsbury was a perplexing signing. Only made sense when you had a 2nd baseman whose numbers were like a corner outfielder. Letting Cano leave really exposed that signing. Can’t have two outfielders whose numbers are like a 2nd baseman who also no longer steal bases.
Unless the Yankees are able to get a top 50-ish prospect without eating a lot of cash (which is very unlikely), I would advise them to keep McCann. He can be a backup catcher, play some first base and DH vs right-handed pitching. That means he will be in the lineup for most games and the Yankees don’t have to keep a light-hitting backup catcher like Romine on the bench. Furthermore it takes some pressure of Sanchez and Bird.
Since Judge and Austin were clearly not ready for the majors yet, the Yankees only need in the lineup is a right fielder, preferably one that hits right-handed. Although they are expensive, Cespedes and Bautista could be options here. Cespedes would be the better option as he loves playing in new york and can shift to left field if/when Gardner or Ellsbury are traded. Cheaper options would include Pearce and Desmond Jennings, who would only be place-holders until Judge proves ready.
In the Bullpen, I would prefer Chapman over Jansen and Melancon because he is a lefty (so he complements Betances and Clippard well) and he is familiar with the organisation. That leaves only the train-wreck that is the Yankee starting staff to fix…
They are probably going to play Judge in RF. He didn’t get enough ab’s to “judge” him yet.
I think he’s gonna be in AAA to start the season, but a good spring might change that. He struck out in almost half of his plate appearances last season and did not look very good in right field. Small sample size for sure, but it seemed to me (according to the stats and all of the 2 games I saw him play) he needed some more work.
For real. What makes you Yankees fans think that teams will be lining up to give you top 50 prospects for a guy who they never wanted to pay that much money in the first place, even when they didn’t have to give up prospects to do it?
No team will, unless the D-backs decide that they want the Miller trade to not be the worst in franchise history anymore :). That’s why I would keep McCann. Read carefully.
And, I am anything but a Yankee fan.
It’s all about supply and demand, if a contender like the Nats doesn’t get either Ramos or Weiters the price goes up for McCann. Contenders don’t go into the season with holes at a position like catcher.
More often than not players who first come up to the majors don’t do well, or if they do like Conforto don’t do well once they find their holes. It’s a process, only super star players like Seager are good from the get go.
It’s way too soon to be moving Severino to the bullpen and I highly doubt that will happen, if he isn’t in the major league rotation he will likely be in the AAA rotation.
Would the Yankees do Romine to the Braves for Vizcaino ?
They sign Chapman and have Betances then add Vizzy that would be a hard throwing back end of the bullpen
Everyone is all on Chapman. What good is he without Offence!!
Major problem is the rotation — Pineada will continue doing what he’s been doing – nothing between the ears there.
As noted – the others have significant health issues/ questions. They need an innings eater – otherwise the pen falls apart in Sept.. No idea why they ever let Colon walk.
They also do need another bat – unless you think Sanchez will hit like Ruth.