Jon Heyman’s latest column for FanRag Sports takes a look at the Dodgers’ summer trade talks and how the club is positioning itself for the future…
- The Dodgers were known to have had brief talks with the Diamondbacks about a possible Zack Greinke trade this summer, and Heyman reports that the Dodgers offered to cover roughly $25MM of the $34.4MM average annual value owed to Greinke through the 2021 season. D’Backs ownership didn’t want to retain any of Greinke’s contract and rejected the offer, saying the Dodgers “had plenty of money” to afford all of the right-hander’s massive future salary commitments.
- While Los Angeles obviously hasn’t been shy on spending in recent years, Heyman notes that the club “might have stricter limits on term that you’d think.” For instance, the Dodgers were only willing to offer Greinke five years (for $155MM) in free agency last winter, and some in the organization even felt that was a “stretch.” The Dodgers even floated a two-year offer to Greinke with a very high AAV of close to $40MM per season.
- With the Dodgers’ concerns about term length in mind, there are some mixed signals about how far the team is willing to go to re-sign its top free agents this winter, such as Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner, Rich Hill and Josh Reddick. While L.A. will “at least try” to retain all of them, at least one or two of the players could sign elsewhere. One rival official believes the Dodgers might let all of their own free agents walk, though later reasoned that Jansen is perhaps too important to the Dodgers’ bullpen to let go.
- Speaking of Dodgers’ spending, some in the front office believe there’s a chance the team could manage to get below the $189MM luxury tax threshold in the near future. The Dodgers have so many impressive prospects on the horizon that an influx of cheap, controllable young talent would allow the club to eschew the higher-priced names that ballooned their payroll to over $300MM in recent years. Heyman notes, however, that the Dodgers have already trimmed spending (by their standards) from that record high, with a 2016 Opening Day payroll of just under $250MM. It’s also possible that the luxury tax limit will be raised from $189MM in the new collective bargaining agreement, so Los Angeles and other big-market teams would have a bit more spending flexibility. Needless to say, getting under the luxury tax limit just once would provide massive financial savings for the Dodgers.
Assuming the Dodgers and a team to be determined later (looking at you Yankees) offer somewhat similar dollar figures to Jansen, does anyone feel the almost-Chapman trade during the winter meetings sways Jansen to move on from LA?
*As in he may have felt disrespected by it.
I was wondering the same thing, I’m guessing it probably does, things like that don’t affect all players but it seem like it would affect him.
I personally don’t under stand how he could have felt disrespected. The bull pin was not great last year and they had the opportunity to trade for probably “the” elite closer. No one to my understanding said he was going to lose his job. It all worked out in the end, and i see lots of teams going after both men, but what the dodgers have is consistency and the opportunity to win now. He’s comfortable and knows the organization, if he goes else where he may just be collecting a check not winning.
If Dodgers give him 15 mil plus he will be closing unless he gets hurt or is absolute trash.
I don’t see the disrespect thing at all. Every player who understands the game wants to play on the best possible team and for an organization that is playing to win.
Had it happened, Jansen would’ve been disrespected. That’s only because he would’ve been the setup man in a contract year. At that point, you get it because it impacts his future earnings. We’re talking about Jansen potentially getting a 15 million AAV. Set-up mean don’t get that. Even if he setup for Chapman and signed elsewhere to close, he wouldn’t have gotten 15 million AAV.
Not necessarily, if only because of the way Roberts manages situationally.
The way the game is played and managed nowadays, if Jansen had felt disrespected by a Chapman acquisition then too bad — sucks to be him.
And let’s just say that the Dodgers make him the highest contract offer this offseason, but he spurns it and leaves because he felt disrespected. Again: oh-freakin’well. If he’s that sensitive then he can go play ball elsewhere. And if he wants to stay, that’s GREAT. Dude is one of the very best at what he does, and I think the Dodgers’ suckitude in the playoffs has kept his national exposure from being what it should be. He’s amazing.
If the Dbacks wanted the Dodgers to take on the whole contract, then they will always have to give a prospect/player in return. A delusional team with no knowledge of the market
I personally discount the “they have plenty of money” argument having been used by the D’Backs. What the Dodgers have to spend has no impact on what Grienke is worth as (in effect) a free agent after a lousy season. If the Dodgers were in fact willing to cover $25M/year of his current contract, that seems like a pretty good offer, probably well above market, considering.
I agree. The D’Backs probably asked for some decent prospects in return (not saying on the Urias/Seager level, but maybe a bunch of mid-tier prospects) to boot so I’m not surprised a deal didn’t happen. Greinke’s numbers weren’t that good in the first half of the year to warrant taking on his whole contract plus prospects.
D’Backs are a joke. They make a horrible investment and then they tell the Dodgers they need to be stuck with the major overpay just because they can afford it. Wow.
The real reason why Zach left was he wants to be the ACE of the pitching staff.
Kershaw is the ACE and Zach didn’t want to be #2
No evidence for this whatsoever. Grienke and Kershaw were pretty close, anybody could see that. The D’Backs offered him more per year and the extra year. Grienke also said he was impressed by the organization in Arizona and what they were trying to do. Maybe he isn’t so impressed now, but that’s beside the point.
Why would you make this assumption? Greinke himself has said that he signs with the team that offers the most money. He said he doesn’t care if it’s the worst team in the league, if they offer the most money he will sign with them. The DBacks offered the most…he signed. End of story. Had nothing whatsoever to do with being an “ACE”.
As mentioned above, Zack did express a fondness for the D’Backs and by all accounts was excited when they got involved.
However he’s also said he goes where the money is. He was quoted as saying he’ll take the highest offer, and he’d play for the worst team as long as it pays the most. (Careful what you wish for, buddy)
EM650 you are just talking out of your rear end. The real reason he left was not because he wanted tk be an ace it was for the additional $75 million or so he was guaranteed! So are you saying if the Dodgers offered him more and the D’Backs came in $75 million or so light but said hey you can be our ace he still would have gone there?
If the Dodgers werent interested in Greinke at the price and terms that the D-Back signed him at following three great seasons, the last cy young caliber, why on earth would they expect them to pick up the entire tab during a very down year plus throw in prospects of any caliber, the D-Backs front office must have been delusional. $25m a year to take him off your hands was a gift sent from heaven
The D-Backs are delusional…that shows from the top down in their last several years of moves. However I don’t think the offer take take $25M per year is a gift. There would likely be several teams lining up to take Greinke at 5 years, $125M without surrendering a draft pick or significant prospects. The Yankees, Angels, Rangers, Giants, Phillies, Red Sox, Braves, etc. Lots of teams would take that pitcher for that money in this situation.
I was comparing that to the D-Backs wanting them to take on the whole contract.
I’d be willing to bet the only free agent they bring back is Turner. I think they’ll bring in Chapman and let Jansen walk. Don’t think there’s any chance they bring back Reddick but I could see them signing Hill. Possibly they sign Hill and Turner but I think just Turner, think they’ll sign Chapman and I also think they’ll not only trade for Braun I could see them revisiting trade talks for Grienke.
I can definitely see them bringing back Turner and Hill. Reddick is likely gone – he hasn’t made an impact in his time in LA at all – the anti-Manny I reckon.
Something weird going on with Jansen and LA – front office seems to have some reservations about keeping him around, for whatever reason. And who knows what is going through Jansen’s mind. It’s like looking at a relationship from a distance and knowing something is up, but not knowing what.
If true, I’d have to say the disappointment on Jansen’s part might be not being made an extension offer.
So because someone else has money, you just expect them to pay you what you want?
I hope to at least see Turner and Jansen back in blue next year.
“D’Backs ownership didn’t want to retain any of Greinke’s contract and rejected the offer, saying the Dodgers ‘had plenty of money’ to afford all of the right-hander’s massive future salary commitments.”
First off, if no one else was willing to pay Zack Greinke all that money in the offseason, they’re not going to be willing to do it 6 months later, especially after he took a huge step back performance-wise.
Secondly, just because the Dodgers have “plenty of money” doesn’t mean they are going to be willing to pay a guy more than they think he is worth.
Just got a feeling Kenley Jansen ends up signing with Yankees. Think he has lot of respect for Mariano Rivera and sees himself in Yankees uniform like his idol.
I think you are correct. As someone else stated above I think the Dodgers will let Jansen walk and will sign Chapman instead. With all of the pitching injuries the Dodgers have dealt with the last couple of years I think they might prefer to have Chapman’s fastball over Jansen’s slider for $15+ million a year. It seems that pitchers that rely on a slider as heavily as Jansen does are more likely to face elbow problems. I could be wrong but I think the Dodgers sign Chapman and the Yankees go after Jansen hard. Jansen’s slider is highly comparable to Andrew Miller’s and he would be the prefect partner to pair with Betances.
Speaking of Andrew Miller, there hasn’t been very much speculation but I can’t see the Indians holding onto him. $9 million a year for a bullpen arm is a luxury I don’t think they are comfortable paying. I believe they will try to recoup some of the prospects they gave up to acquire him. The Dodgers have more than enough prospect wealth to get him from the Indians without hurting their future depth much. The bullpen has been the Dodgers Achilles heel the last couple of years. If they were to sign Chapman and then trade for Miller (perhaps even sign Holland to a one/two year contract) their biggest weakness could quickly turn into one of their greatest strengths. Salary wise, Miller and Chapman together (roughly $24m-$25m) would be roughly equal to what they were willing to give up to reaquire Greinke ($25m plus prospects) and together their innings total wouldn’t be that far behind a decent starter (160+).
Friedman is going to have to start showing results soon, or he is going to be on the hot seat. I know they consistently win their division and always put a winning team on the field. But, I am sure ownership and the fans want championships, and soon, for all of the money they have spent. A healthy season from their rotation, a full season from Urias and DeLeon, and a bullpen with Chapman, Miller and Holland (or someone similar like McGee or Boxberger) would imho give them the best pitching staff in baseball. Resigning Turner, a healthy season from Either (4th OF) and the completion of the speculated trade for Braun would imo give them a team that could easily rival the Cubs for the best in baseball. If they were to trade for Dozier (rumored to be on the block this winter) from the Twins, I think (on paper at least) they would have a better overall team than the Cubs.
The Dodgers easily have the prospect capital to trade for players like Dozier, Braun and Miller without leaving the farm barren. With the addition of those 3, signing Chapman and Holland, then resigning Turner, we could easily see a Dodgers/Cubs NLCS for the next 3-4 years. Regardless, this has to be the offseason where Freidman starts to go for it. It seems like he dragged his feet a bit last year, and with their checkbook plus so much talent in that front office that could easily (and I am sure happily) take over the full decision-making of the team, it’s time for him to go for it. I am not a big fan of the Dodgers but they seem to have some of biggest die-hard fans that deserve a championship. Plus, with the team Epstein has put together in Chicago, they are expecting to be the team to beat the next 5+ years. The only team I can see putting up a serious challenge would be the Dodgers. Yes, the Nats have a great team but they have more holes to fill than the Dodgers and are about maxed on payroll. Plus, I think they will lose Ramos this year and Harper in 2018. So, big blue is the only team I can see stopping the Cubs from becoming a dynasty similar to what the Yankees had in the mid to late 90’s.
Sorry about the novel guys. Those of you familiar with my rants know that the day before I go for chemo, I can’t sleep and in turn write long drawn out posts. I apologize if you are dumber for having read it.
Jansen’s money pitch is the cut fastball. Well I guess it’s sort of a slider. I’d have thought that someone who relies on pure velocity and often questionable location would have the shorter shelf life. I’d go for Jansen’s control over Chapman’s gas any day.
Good stuff….I can agree on most of it….my friends hate it when I write long baseball posts on Facebook so I am right there with you on the long baseball rants….btw….hope all goes well with the chemotherapy….