I believe Rich Hill will land a three-year contract worth $45MM or more in free agency this winter. A year ago, that would’ve seemed insane. Today marks the one-year anniversary of Hill’s return to a Major League starting rotation after a five-year hiatus. That September spot start for the Red Sox turned into four, which led to a one-year, $6MM free agent deal from the Athletics in November. Hill’s success continued this season, albeit with significant time missed due to injuries. The lefty’s season culminated with seven perfect innings for the Dodgers against the Marlins Saturday night, though it’s not over yet. Here’s why I believe Hill will get $45MM or more this winter.
- His performance has been otherworldly. Over the last year, Hill has authored 124 innings of 1.74 ball – the best in baseball over that period. Hill has ridden his knee-buckling curveball to strike out more than 30% of batters faced (10.6 K/9) during that time. Even if you just look at pure, total value, Hill ranks 14th with 4.6 wins above replacement. Hill’s last 124 innings were worth roughly the same as Johnny Cueto’s last 229 2/3 frames. Hill has pitched 95 innings this year, and FanGraphs values his performance at $28MM.
- His age won’t stop him from getting three years. Hill will turn 37 in March. Three-year free agent deals are rare at that age, because teams are wary of injuries and decline. However, I expect Hill to get three years for the same reason Carlos Beltran did in his last contract: it’s the cost of doing business. If demand is strong enough for Hill’s services, teams will simply have to make three-year offers to have a chance to sign him, even if they don’t expect the contract to end well. Hill can also make the argument that he will age well, since he’s not reliant on fastball velocity and has less mileage on his arm than a typical pitcher his age.
- His injury history won’t stop him from getting three years. Rich Hill has an extensive injury history dating back to 2008. He endured shoulder and elbow surgery in his career, and he’s missed 79 days this season due to a groin injury and blisters on his throwing hand. I still think he can get a three-year deal, for the same “cost of doing business” reason stated above. It’s why Scott Kazmir got three years and Brandon McCarthy got four (albeit both from the Dodgers). It’s true that Hill brings issues of both age and injury history, but his performance has been far stronger than that of a Kazmir or McCarthy. Plus, many teams throw rationality out the window in free agency.
- Rich Hill can be a game-changer for under $50MM. Why did Dodgers manager Dave Roberts pull Hill in the midst of a perfect game, with 89 pitches thrown? It’s partially because they know what a huge weapon he can be for them in the postseason if they can keep him healthy. Simply by virtue of having Clayton Kershaw and Rich Hill in a short series, the Dodgers will be a fearsome playoff opponent. So maybe you sign Hill to a three-year deal and can only count on 100 innings a year from him. Those 100 innings could be ace-caliber, and have a large impact on a team’s chance at winning the World Series. It’s akin to the way a reliever like Aroldis Chapman can have a high overall impact despite throwing only 60 regular season innings. A lot of teams don’t mind “overpaying” for relievers in free agency, because a Chapman or an Andrew Miller can make such a huge difference at crunch time. However, Chapman and Kenley Jansen will require contracts well beyond $45MM this winter. $45MM just isn’t a lot of money in MLB these days, and the upside makes Hill worth the risk.
- The free agent market for starting pitching is terrible. The 2016-17 free agent market for starting pitching is historically bad. Have a look. Would you rather throw $30-35MM at Jeremy Hellickson or Ivan Nova, or $45-50MM at Rich Hill? I don’t know whether the current draft pick compensation system will remain similar under a new Collective Bargaining Agreement, but if it does, Hill could come with the added bonus of not requiring compensation by virtue of his midseason trade.
The X factor in Hill’s future earnings is his own personal preference. Certainly, he could take less money to pitch in a certain part of the country, as players sometimes do. Let’s hear your thoughts in the poll below (direct link for mobile app users).
Also, consider that a team will not need to relinquish a first round selection as Hill is not eligible to be made a Qualifying Offer. With the market for SPs so poor, a guy like Hellickson could certainly get a QO.
So long as the CBA doesn’t change the way QOs are made (or even their existence), Hill could possibly get upwards of $60M.
Great article, Tim!!!
If Rich Hill gets 45 million lol oh man. Murphy didnt even get that. He should be happy with 2 @ 25
Tim just wrote an article stating 5 reasons why he’ll get more than that. You know, this article?
And this guy stated one reason why he won’t. Not that I agree, but this is literally what comments sections are for.
Because a position player, coming off what was at the time, an uncertain spike in production, in a stronger free agent market, didn’t?
Yeah I guess that’s a “reason”.
Speak of the devil it’s Chester. You still think I have my Homer glasses on with Freddie Freeman? Still think I’m delusional that he can still hit and that he just needed protection in the lineup? You are the last person who needs to speak lol
Every year there is more than just a couple really bad contracts handed out based on upside and potential
Murphy had a QO attached, pre 2015 playoffs was just an average 2B., and not every team has a need for a 2B. Pretty much every team in the league needs pitching. Pitchers simply have a bigger market.
Only Luhnow would do a deal like that.
I could see Dombrowski doing this. He’s never been afraid to open up the checkbook for pitching. Also, the Angels are desperate for pitching and the Dodgers have shown interest and have the funds. Royals and Tigers are outside shots as they could use some additional rotation depth, and Dave Stewart likes to throw money around just for the fun of it.
Doubt Angels are that desperate
I gotta think his injury history will make teams wary about adding a third year to his contract.
I see an option for the third year rather than a guaranteed 3rd too. Maybe it vests on # of starts or innings pitched?
I just can’t see it happening. You’re talking about a guy who has potentially missed 80 innings this season due to a blister. That to me puts him only in the 2 year area. Maybe the Red Sox or the Orioles decide to throw their money away on him because they have to and need to. But I can’t see another team wasting their money on him.
even with his missed time, he’s been a 3.5 fwar pitcher.
Why do the Red Sox have to or need to? They have Price, Porcello, Pomerantz, ERod and Wright coming back next season. Their rotation has been 4th best on the AL
Probably more like 6th or 7th
Someone will likely end up paying Hill 3/$45 but depending on other factors other teams may actually prefer Hellickson or Nova if that teams they can get them for 3 years and 30/35 million. Some teams would prefer to take a chance on a younger more historically healthy pitcher with less upside than an older less historically healthy pitcher who is lights out when he is on the bump. It is all going to boil down to how that specific team balances risks and rewards based on their evaluation of the individual pitcher.
I can’t agree with his being worth 3/45, though I can see it happening. The 100 quality innings that are being speculated on, don’t have the same appeal when you factor in 100 innings from a 6th or 7th starter. When would you get that 100 from him? At the beginning of the year, then having to replace him in the 2nd half when the races get tight? Or at the end of the year after having fallen out of contention because a “Wade LeBlanc” type couldn’t give quality starts early. Maybe you rush a prospect and they never recover. I would rather have the more dependable workhorse.
There’s really no “dependable workhorse” on this years free agent market though. Bartolo? He’s super old and not as good as Hill.
Is Rich Hill worth 3/$45M? Not at all. I don’t know that anyone thinks that.
Given the market and other factors detailed in this article, Rich Hill certainly may get that. He’s not worth it, but that won’t stop a club – and it just takes one – to give it to him.
Well I mean in theory, no athlete deserves that much – that’s more than doctors and scientists – people who actually change the world. But Hill is a legit ace when he does pitch, if anyone “deserves” $15M a year on this years MLB FA market, its him.
Whatever he gets paid is what he is worth. That’s how markets work. Still, I am doubtful about a player with such a checkered past receiving three years, especially at his age. The lack of competition will help him maximize his market value, but still.
BTW, the other reason Roberts pulled him in the 7th is because without him the Dodgers don’t have a legitimate #2 starter, even assuming a healthy Kershaw. I mean, forget about the postseason for a moment, and just look at the rotation, and see what you see in the here and now.
One more reason, at the end of this season he will likely have about 620 or so innings under his belt…that’s about what a young pitcher with roughly 3 years of proven starter would have at say age 24 or 26. I think he could easily get $17.5 x 3 yrs or somewhere closer to $50M.
MLB Trade Rumors would give Rich Hill 5/125m just to write for them.
Hill “may” get 3 years, but I’m looking at 10-11 mil per
Bums get 10/11 million. Did you read the article. That’s the best numbers in baseball. He’ll get 15 per easily. Best pitcher in baseball over the last year besides that one guy named Kershaw.
I totally see this happening, especially with a huge playoff performance. But look at it this way: even if he gets hurt, you are paying $45M for say, 45 starts over 3 years – that’s still a bargain. His stuff and approach make it very difficult for him to not throw a quality start at minimum, so you are really paying $45 million for 40+ QS, and any team in baseball would do this if put to them this way*. If he stays healthy he’s a bargain. His ceiling is as high as anyone’s on the market.
*Yankees are currently paying Sabathia $25M to throw 13+ QS for them. It’s fair to say a MLB team would pay $1M per QS, no? I’m spitballin here but it seems like a fair comp.
Counting on consecutive dominant campaigns from an injury prone pitcher…he will get signed by some desperate contender anyway. Payroll is a 4 letter word for some clubs.
He’s from Oackland
The fact that there is no QO makes his value skyrocket. I could see him getting around 60 over 3 years. The problem with thin markets like this is: teams shell out crazy amounts of money to players that aren’t worth it (like Hill who is probably not a safe investment over 3 years)- and then in the future when legit players are free agents, they use these deals as benchmarks, so this offseason has the potential to send baseball payrolls into a whole new world.. That’s a bit concerning as we are likely to see a lot of bad contracts this season.
I can’t see a team going 3 years with his injury history. that is going to scare people
Not a contender with a huge budget like the Yankees, who would be totally ok with overpaying for 15 quality starts, as they are currently paying Sabathia $25M this year for 13 QS. Hill’s ceiling is miles above Sabathias right now, Hill has so many 10+ K games and almost no non-QS’s dating back to Boston last year.
A’s or not A’s, Hill is a keeper, definitely…
I still have this gut feeling Hill is going to vanish as quickly as he appeared.
Hill will get $45 million or more because there will be a general manager who is so desperate for pitching that he will give Hill the 3 years and the money. It only takes one desperate gm
I could see him getting a three year deal and If I were the GM desperate enough to do it, it would be heavily backloaded. That way, even if he is merely a 4.50 era 4th or 5th starter in the last year of the deal, you could afford to build around (or in front of) him.
Sign a 37 year old with injury history and no long real track record. Yeah, 3/45 sounds awesome
In Rich Hill’s last 21 starts (20 if you subtract the blister game where he came out during the first hitter) he has 17 QS. That’s a Kershaw-level percentage. No one on the market can do that.
To repeat: In 20 starts, he gave up 3 earned runs THREE times. The rest were 2 runs or less, while maintaining a 1.74 ERA. That is Cy Young level. Everyone stop badmouthing his talent, Hill is an absolute beast who deserves a huge contract even with his injury history. If you are a borderline contender, Hill the exact kind of risk you take.