Outfielder Hector Olivera, who was technically under contract most recently with the Padres — albeit quite briefly, and never in uniform — has been found guilty in his domestic abuse trial, as A.J. Perez of USA Today writes. Olivera was ultimately sentenced to 90 days in prison, but 80 of them are suspended under the judge’s decision for his misdemeanor conviction. It remains to be seen whether the disgraced 31-year-old will attempt any kind of comeback. He hasn’t donned a Major League uniform since his arrest and was released by the Padres after they acquired his contract as part of the financial work-out of the deal that sent Matt Kemp to Atlanta.
Here’s more from the NL West:
- The Diamondbacks’ internal issues may run deeper than is generally known, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, who says there’s discord between director of player development Mike Bell and senior VP of baseball ops De Jon Watson. Though all of the relevant front office members issued statements denying or glossing over the alleged discord, Rosenthal says that the pair is “at odds” over how the team runs its player development system, with Bell possibly prepared to depart if Watson is retained. As with chief baseball officer Tony La Russa and GM Dave Stewart, a decision is due on Watson’s contract.
- Meanwhile, Diamondbacks president & CEO Derrick Hall participated in a Reddit AMA in which he fielded some less-than-favorable points of view from fans. One in particular challenged the baseball decisionmaking since La Russa has taken charge, prompting an interesting response from Hall — who has said that the team is assessing whether to keep that front office group intact. “As you know, we are evaluating and analyzing all areas that you’ve touched on, and will have decisions on direction very soon,” he wrote. “What history has shown us is that turnarounds come quickly as was the case from 2006 to 2007 and 2010 to 2011. I obviously want us to be in a position where we play contending baseball much more consistently year and year for fans like you. Keep your head high and know that we all see the same issues and feel the same frustration.”
- We checked in recently on the Dodgers’ interesting bullpen, and tonight it’s time to look at the rotation. Ben Lindbergh of the Ringer writes that Los Angeles is the rare team that has received positive contributions from a rotation that has required a laundry list of names. The organization’s oft-noted strategy of rolling the dice on starters with injury risks has worked even though many of those arms have ended up on the DL rolls, owing largely to the presence of a host of useful backups.
ib6ub9
they all need to go. they need to get younger people to run the team these old players and mangers that are over the hill can’t run a team. this isnt the 1990’s.clean house from president to gm
chesteraarthur
This view is actually somewhat correct. I don’t think age is technically the issue, but the dbacks need a front office that realizes and actual values the current amount of data that is present in baseball.
Their against-the-grain, front office has obviously faltered, much as the statistical community assumed. There is only one Dayton Moore “success” story per….recent history.
BlueSkyLA
So the statistical community assumed that Greinke and Miller would both have the worst seasons of their careers, and Pollack and Peralta would both lose most of their seasons to injuries, and Goldschmidt would have his least productive season in years? Wow that statistical community sure is good.
Thronson5
Lol. My thoughts exactly BlueSkyLA
chesteraarthur
Well, what team was willing to pay more money to Greinke or give up more talent for Miller?
I await your response….
BlueSkyLA
I will await yours first.
chesteraarthur
Sounds like an admittance of defeat.
The dbacks paid more money/talent for those two and they’ve been bad.
Please continue your fight elsewhere/against someone who doesn’t look at facts.
Thanks, have fun being 50+!
BlueSkyLA
Charming. I’m sure you’d be great fun at parties, if you were ever invited to any.
skip 2
Horrible response
disgruntledreader 2
Well, even if we play along with three flawed premise of your question and act like there is a monolithic “statistical community,” pretty much everyone with a basic understanding of advanced metrics said that Miller was not as good as the numbers he posted in 2015 and that he most definitely wasn’t a #2 starter as the DBacks claimed. The various models generally projected a significant regression by Greinke as well.
chesteraarthur
Ah, the true admittance of defeat!
Head…In…Sand
And acting like people who are much younger than you are A. not invited to parties or B. care a significant amount about their request to attend such parties really shows that you are out of touch.
davidcoonce74
Well, the “statistical community,” (whatever that is), correctly called the Shelby Miller deal an absolute disaster from day one, even if he had been even a league average starter. FanGraphs and BP both predicted the Diamondbacks to miss the postseason, even with a healthy Pollock.
I mean, the D-Backs are the last team that actively shuns advanced metrics and you see where this has gottten them, right? The three teams with the most advanced analytic staffs in baseball are all in first place.
Ray Ray
Okay then you win. Tell him what he has won Johnny.
You’ve won the lack of respect from a large portion of readers who now see you as a petulant child instead of someone that is interesting to talk to about baseball.
Enjoy your winnings.
drbnic
What does that have to do with the statistics? You ‘re talking like a politician, in circles!
drbnic
About as bad as yours!
A'sfaninUK
“So the statistical community assumed that Greinke and Miller would both have the worst seasons of their careers, and Pollack and Peralta would both lose most of their seasons to injuries, and Goldschmidt would have his least productive season in years? Wow that statistical community sure is good.”
No, but literally 99% of all MLB teams in the history of the game experiences regressions or injuries or random poor form/slumps by its players, and a good GM will create a 40 man to cover any of those. How many teams even use less than 7 starters in a regular season anymore?
How can a FO cover for this? By reading into stats and trying to avoid massive red flag players like Shelby Miller, who has never actually been anything more than a back end starter on a good team.
A'sfaninUK
Who actually cares about being respected by anonymous commenters???
I don’t. I love talking baseball, and I love showing people they are wrong by posting facts and stats. That alone will make any dumb fan angry.
Steve Adams
A couple things to chime in with here:
1. Insinuating that the Royals eschew statistical analysis when their entire success story was built on undervalued components of the game — extreme emphasis on making contact, the value of baserunning, lockdown relief pitching and elite defense — is silly. Kansas City didn’t load up on OBP, but they found undervalued skill sets that worked within their payroll constraints and built an outstanding roster that was tailor-made for the manner in which the postseason schedule is structured. Dayton Moore and the Royals didn’t fluke their way into consecutive World Series appearances.
2. While the “statistical community” comment sounds condescending, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that a lot of people expected the D-backs to perform worse than Arizona’s own front office. Few thoughtShelby Miller would repeat his 2015 numbers, as they were over-inflated by an enormously BABIP-fueled April/May run last season. There was an argument to be made — and a good one — that Inciarte alone was worth more than Miller, and that subtracting him from the outfield defense while relying on Tomas/Peralta in the corners was a recipe for disaster from a defensive standpoint. The loss of Pollock was of course unforeseeable but only magnified the decision to de-emphasize outfield defense — one of the primary elements that caused Arizona to exceed expectations in 2015.
A'sfaninUK
Yes, Inciarte-Miller straight up is a bad trade, but the genius that is Dave Stewart threw a package that would have gotten them Chris Sale, not an overrated back end SP like Miller.
Niekro
The Royals must have been using skill sets not even the statistical community understood because they were projected to win 70 some games by those communities the year they won 95 games and the world series, this was also after going to the WS so I tend to take those projections with a grain of salt. No one in that community saw the Royals success coming so they are a bad example to use to support them.
Kayrall
To play devil’s advocate (I am an actuary and highly follow the statistically oriented side of baseball), how much they paid aside, even worse-than-normal regression would not have amounted to the magnitude of that of Greinke and Miller. Sure, everyone was saying that the D-Backs gave up way more than they needed/should have for Miller, but even regressing to a number 4 would make this a whole different story. Greinke had possibly the worst 2 months of his career to start his tenure in ARZ. A lot of things went wrong and the right time to put this team in the perceived hole that it is in now.
On the topic of regression, we can and probably should expect guys like Miller to become at least a bit more serviceable next year than he was this year.
Kayrall
Careful, lol, you’ll wake all of the sleeping ATL fans screaming praises for Miller and Teheran.
Gogerty
This thread truly made my day. Anytime Chesteraarthur is included, I know I am in for a treat.
BlueSkyLA
Exactly, because “regression” in this context means (to people with a basic grasp of statistics) “regression to the mean.” Players with a few years in the books can be expected to perform in the neighborhood of their mean, barring any external changes (injuries, degradation due to age, etc.). Within one standard deviation most of the time by definition. Miller has fewer years on which to base any projections, but not just one. Greinke has a substantial career record on which to judge whether 2016 is an outlier season for him and whether he is likely to repeat this poor performance in future years, or something closer to his career mean. Statistics would strongly suggest the latter.
So anyone who claims that it was somehow obvious that Miller would perform far below his career mean this season are simply blowing smoke. Mostly they are just grinding their axe over the trade. The same goes for the Grienke signing, really.
The bottom line is also essentially about statistics. Numbers suggest likely outcomes, they don’t predict them. Actual outcomes are produced by randomness, deviations from means. A GM then can only hope to increase their probabilities of winning, they can’t guarantee them. Is this too obvious to say? Apparently not, given the comments we’ve seen here that suggest the D’Backs FO “should have known” that all of the random events that befell them were totally predictable. That’s just nonsense. It sure isn’t statistics.
Finally, we get the dilemma of the small or mid-market team. They are generally not going to have the financial resources to construct a competitive team every year, or even most years. They will see windows of opportunity for competitiveness, based on controllable players, that will open and close fairly quickly. I have more respect for a GM (and team ownership) that recognizes these openings and goes for them, than for a GM who constantly conserves resources, and never allows the team to rise above mediocrity. Some are more happy to see teams that always plays the money game and never the wining game. They are, IMO, not baseball fans.
bigpapisucks4life
Is that a jab at his age? You do realise you will be old some day? You will be 50 cowered in your “safe space” like 90% of the other millennials.
yourfacedude
That’s an awfully interesting username from someone questioning “millennials” on their maturity.
User 4245925809
Am starting to see the Royals now along the lines of the TB Rays, as in the talent really isn’t that strong, but just cannot be counted out year after year and don’t mean that in a condescending way. The team will compete. It’s becoming more of a atmosphere, coaching and right now BP thing than overall talent.
Tampa has done it for years. KC was like that for a decade back in the 80’s and seems to be getting like that again. They just have the atmosphere where they are going to go out and win. It get’s contagious, like some do they are going to find a way to lose. Not going to name those teams, but u know who they are year after year.
davbee
“So anyone who claims that it was somehow obvious that Miller would perform far below his career mean this season are simply blowing smoke.”
So that includes the Yahoo writer who, in an article dated 2/10/16 (before the season) entitled Overvalued Players: NL West had this to say about Miller:
“Given that Miller doesn’t produce strikeouts at the level of an ace and he’s moving to a home ballpark that is less friendly to pitchers than either of the other parks he’s called home in his career, it’s hard to see his numbers moving in the right direction.”
BlueSkyLA
Yeah, I suppose it would. Because of course sportswriters never blow any smoke.
Blue_Painted_Dreams_LA
Against the grain is fine if there is a clear and direct path or plan. Where the FO has faltered has been not surrounding themselves with experience. Heck the Grienke signing was fine if you understand Grienke. He really has never been the one GUY in a huge market. He has also shown instances where he’s checked out when the team around him isn’t terrific. Grienke signing was head scratching because you are talking about a middle of the rev team with guys that will get expensive soon I.e. Tomas, and Pollock. This team was in a terrific state honestly. Maybe a couple of solid minor moves here and there to the pitching staff after the Grienke signing.
What you can’t predict is major injuries to Pollock, Peralta, and even to some extent Ahmed. Their gamble on Miller was a terrible one. If you look at the talent given up, whether or not you believe any of them will pan out, they probably should have received more. It truly is just a team with a lot of talent with miscast parts. They were going to hit and play D, especially OF D. That’s important in the NL west. That was their identity. Now they are shaky defensively.
They had a window and they certainly misplayed their window. The Rockies have by far surpassed them. That being said they still have pieces. They did make a great trade in Segura. They need to address that whole pitching staff. They still have Grienke and Ray and unless they are able to make a move in the offseason it two and pray. Their pen is…..
LordBanana
While they did pay a ton for greinke, I don’t think they paid that much more than plenty of other teams were willing to pay.
However it doesn’t look pretty with the whole package of problems.
Steve Adams
Reports have indicated that Arizona had to top the next-highest offer (the Dodgers) by $40MM in order to persuade him to sign there. That’s a pretty staggering margin…. it’s not as if Los Angeles was at $195MM and Arizona swooped in with an extra ten million.
A'sfaninUK
Shades of the Mets/Giants “battle” for the services of Barry Zito!
Gogerty
I agree with what you are saying Steve and maybe it has more to do with my lack of knowledge on FO/contract negotiations. But with Grienke he has had phenomenal success and ARZ probably assumed that with Price off the market they had to go big. Just a simple guess though.
vtadave
Yep. Supposedly the Dodgers offered 5/155 and were unwilling to give him a sixth year. $51 million overpay. Probably a smaller gap than the first Arod deal with the Rangers, but still sizeable.
BlueSkyLA
Supposedly is a important operator in your statement. We don’t really know whether the Dodgers were offering Grienke five or six. If it was six, the numbers are a lot closer and the AAV isn’t much different in either event.
In any case I am trying to imagine an auction where the highest bidder loses. That concept isn’t familiar to me, so perhaps you can explain it.
chesteraarthur
washingtonpost.com/news/nationals-journal/wp/2015/…
tsolid 2
Thanks for your input Mack22. Please pickup my sarcasm
christynicks
Olivera did play after his arrest, albeit at the single A level.
davidcoonce74
What was the worst deal – Olivera, Arraburenna(sic) or Alex Guerrero. Or Rusney Castillo? Smart teams were making dumb decisions there for a while when it came to Cuban players. Even low-budget teams like the Padres were signing useless guys like Despaigne. It looks like the market is beginning to correct itself now.
BoldyMinnesota
Olivera is easily the worst, he got 62.5 million to play 30 games.
Steve Adams
Despaigne only cost $1MM, and he junk-balled his way to a decent rookie season (I don’t say “junk-balled” as a bad thing, either — he threw six different pitches at about a 10% clip or greater his rookie season, including a damn eephus, it was awesome).
The Olivera deal is the worst with the benefit of hindsight, as he’ll never play another game and had the largest expenditure. But the level of interest in Arruebarrena and Guerrero didn’t line up with the money the Dodgers paid them. Olivera was a highly sought-after free agent… I don’t think the same can be said of Guerrero or Arruebarrena.
disgruntledreader 2
By virtue of him having been convicted, isn’t there now an opportunity for some clawback of future salary?
jmi1950
Rusney does not belong in this group. He has a .692 OPS in only 319 AB’s with way above average defense..
BoldyMinnesota
That’s not good… And he’s already been dfa’d once
petersdylan36
Okay, so question.
The Padres are on the hook for X amount of $$$ for Olivera. I read something that said they do not have to pay him while he spends time in jail. So, do the Padres not pay him for 90 days or 10 days?
I know it’s a mute point because they owe him a lot of money but just wondering how this process works.
Blue_Painted_Dreams_LA
They owe around $20 mill and will end up paying $20 mill. Not having to pay him was a long shot as is. Now that he’s only serving the 10 days in jails they are assured they will pay him. The loophole night have been him being convicted to significant jail time and missing seasons. But since they don’t get paid in the off season its a mute point.
nicktrombino
Everyone focuses on the Miller/Grienke mishaps, but isn’t that just the surface? It seems as if the front office as a whole doesn’t value players accordingly.
For instance the Arroyo trade. If I’m not mistaking Touki at the time was a highly regarded prospect and just to help with the financial issues they had to trade him. While I know he has struggled mightily with the braves, I can’t help but think he would have fetched a far better package had they valued him accordingly.
Same could be said for the Yoan signing and Zielgler trade? Seems the market values for these players were dramatically different?
I don’t think it’s a case of stats vs old baseball (maybe I’m wrong), as it seems they are just out of touch/sync with the values of players.
comebacktrail28
White Sox Suck
SixFlagsMagicPadres
Poor Diamondbacks.
Years from now, I could see ESPN doing a “30 for 30” documentary on everything that’s happened to the Diamondbacks within the past couple of seasons. They could call it “The Snake’s Mistake.”
chesteraarthur
96 wins! Where is scottaz?