Rebuilding season or not, falling short of the playoffs and finishing with a losing record probably means that more things went wrong than went right for a team. This series, however, will focus on those silver linings that each team can take away from an otherwise disappointing season.
[Related: “Top Bright Spots” archive]
Here are the biggest bright spots for the Atlanta Braves.
Note: Freddie Freeman’s terrific season does qualify as a bright spot, as does Julio Teheran’s to a lesser extent, but not major ones in regards to what was expected and how it affects the team moving forward. Since neither is expected to be a trade candidate, their performances don’t change the outlook for the offseason or for the 2017 season.
1. Ender Inciarte/ Matt Kemp/ Nick Markakis, OF
All indications are that the Braves expect to contend in 2017 and will be aggressive in their pursuit of two or three starting pitchers that could help send them in the right direction. Trading from a position of strength didn’t appear to been an option a few months ago. But thanks to the late-season success from their starting outfield trio, this is now a viable strategy. Here’s a look at the three potential trade candidates:
Inciarte: .863 OPS, 14 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, 7 SB in 60 games; under club control thru ’20; entering first year of arbitration eligibility (Super Two).
Kemp: .914 OPS, 16 2B, 15 HR in 57 games; owed $47.25MM thru 2019
Markakis: .839 OPS, 16 2B, 7 HR in 60 games; owed $22MM thru 2018
The 25-year-old Inciarte is easily the most valuable trade chip of the three, although I wouldn’t rule out the Braves receiving a decent return for Markakis or Kemp. One of the strong motivators for the Braves in the Kemp deal was to rid themselves of Hector Olivera and his contract. Getting Kemp was an added bonus. They’d likely be more than happy to pay his close to $16MM per season salary and would likely be willing to eat a portion of that in an offseason trade if it brought back a starting pitcher who could help in 2017.
2. Jace Peterson, IF/OF
While Peterson’s season won’t likely have much effect on Ozzie Albies’ arrival in the majors—you can probably pencil Albies into the starting lineup no later than June 1st whether Peterson is in the picture or not—his value to the Braves has increased greatly.
Since returning from a stint in the minors on June 10th, the 26-year-old has a .789 OPS with seven homers, 15 doubles, 44 walks and 46 strikeouts. In addition to functioning as a stop-gap for Albies, he could also push Adonis Garcia for playing time at third base, as well as give the Braves another option in the outfield if they were to trade Inciarte, Kemp or Markakis. That is, if he’s still in the organization on Opening Day.
Peterson’s trade value should be on the rise. Young, controllable players—he’ll be eligible for free agency after that 2020 season—who can play multiple positions (including short and center) and get on base at a high clip are at a premium. The combination of youth, talent and versatility makes him an asset for a contender or rebuilding team.
3. Mike Foltynewicz, SP
The open audition the Braves have been holding for starting pitchers in 2016 hasn’t yielded many answers in regards to who can help them out in the near future. Out of all the young, unproven pitchers who have been given the opportunity to make a start, Foltynewicz is the most likely to be penciled into the 2017 rotation.
In what might have been his last chance to prove that he could be a big league starter—many scouts believe the hard-throwing right-hander is best suited for the bullpen—Foltynewicz had more ups (seven starts with one earned run or less) than downs (five starts with five or more earned runs allowed). At just 24 years of age, there is still plenty of room for growth. Another step forward in 2017 and the Braves could have themselves a solid No. 2 or 3 starter.
4. Mauricio Cabrera, RP
It’s not out of the ordinary for a rookie to look much better than expected in the big leagues based on their Minor League track record. Small-sample success can be a matter of opposing teams not having enough information to formulate the proper plan of attack. Once the book is out, word spreads quickly and that players’ weaknesses are exposed.
In the case of Cabrera, his weakness was that he could not throw strikes consistently enough with a fastball that regularly exceeds 100 MPH. Since 2015, his first year as a full-time relief pitcher in the Minor Leagues, he combined to walk 57 batters in 82 innings (5.7 BB/9) between High-A and Double-A. In the majors, where he’s been since the Braves called him up on June 27th, he’s walked only 14 hitters in 34.2 innings (3.6 BB/9) en route to a solid 3.12 ERA with four saves and eight holds in his 35 appearances. If he can throw a 102 fastball for strikes and employ a secondary pitch or two that somewhat resembles the fastball coming out of his hand, extensive scouting reports probably won’t help much.
While their have been a few expected bumps along the way, the 22-year-old has earned a shot to challenge Arodys Vizcaino (any any other competitors who are brought into the picture) for the closer’s job in 2017 and should at least be penciled into a setup role.
5. Ozzie Albies, 2B/SS (MiLB)
The 19-year-old Albies, who spent the entire 2015 season in Low-A ball, was on the doorstep to the Major Leagues before fracturing his elbow earlier this month. We’ll never know whether the Braves were willing to add him to the 40-man roster and start his service time clock as they did with Dansby Swanson. GM John Coppolella suggested the team didn’t think he was quite ready, but it wouldn’t have been a major surprise. He would’ve been the 2nd player in team history from Wilemstad, Curacao to debut at age 19. The other was center fielder Andruw Jones, a five-time All-Star who won 10 Gold Glove awards as a Brave.
A jump over High-A and to the upper minors wasn’t much of a challenge for the switch-hitting Albies, who finished the season with a .778 OPS, 49 extra-base hits (33 2B, 10 3B, 6 HR) and 30 stolen bases between Double-A and Triple-A. The fast-rising prospect should make his MLB debut early in the 2017 season, teaming with Swanson to form one of the more intriguing young double-play duos in baseball.
Not sure what arbitrary date cutoffs you put on Inciarte and Markakis to make their production look good, but don’t you think the other 59 and 86 (respectively) games they played this year actually count and will factor into what other teams would consider trading for them? And/or that teams might notice this is the third straight year Kemp has only been playable for half a season (if you ignore his defense, which makes him unplayable all the time)?
Matt Kemp will once again be on the top 10 list of untradable assets this offseason.
Inciarte has posted solid numbers this season. Good enough for a 3.4 war, he started rough but has been stellar since he figured it out.
Did you miss this whole part about the late season surge from their OF trio? A late push will increase a player’s value. Overall Inciarte has a .294/.351/.386 line, is under team control for another 4 years, and provides elite D. Kemp has been unplayable for half the season? .262/.285/.489 with 23 HR’s playing half his games at Petco? That put him on a 37 HR pace…..Sure his D sucks now but for roughly $16M/season and the possibility that ATL eats some $$…he makes an ideal DH.
He not really ideal, he can’t get on base…
The only thing bad on the damn braves is there starting pitching
They are scoring tons of runs yet sp give up 6 runs a game
Lots of teams in need of a CF. Mallex Smith looked plenty capable if the Braves wanted to move Inciarte. The Braves have fielded a much improved team over this last month or so even if the results haven’t always been there
Yeah give him the As haha
To*
Keep ender n smith trade Nick
Markakis makes the most sense to me to trade. He’s been getting his power back as the season has gone on and that would free up some money + open a spot for Mallex. I don’t see many free agents the Braves should pursue this off season. They most likely wouldn’t want to give up their second pick to sign someone with a qualifying offer. Trades will happen though and I bet they get a SP and C that way. I say platoon 3B with Ruiz/Garcia and have Peterson take 2B until Albies is ready.
The top ten picks are protected from being lost due to a free agent signing just FYI.
True, but I was referring to their second pick since they would most like get a competitive balance pick right?
Not unless they trade for one. The Braves market isn’t considered small enough to land themselves into the competitive balance lottery. But they would forfeit their second round pick, which would probably fall around 40th or so. Those picks are too coveted by the Braves FO so I agree with you that they wouldn’t want to give it up.
Kemp really needs to DH. Any value he brings with the bat – slightly above league average currently – is completely undone by his awful glovework.
I guess you weren’t watching the game tonight when he made 2 amazing catches in LF. Sure, I get your point, but it’s the irony.
Yeah Run, I was shocked to see the two catches he made in the 7th. He also made a great one the other night where he leaped into the air and caused the ground to shake when he landed on his belly. LOL maybe he has been reading all the comments about his poor D and decided if nothing else he will try to hustle more.
The truth be told, Mallex would probably had caught all those balls without leaving his feet, but at least Kemp made them look good. I do think over the long haul he will probably be better in left than he was in rightfield. Without a doubt though his best position is ‘hitter’..296/.348/.503 since coming over to the Braves is a big improvement over what he did with the Padres for sure.
I thought I misread the post when it talked about Kemp having ANY value. Glad others have caught that as well. Let me put this notion to bed, Kemp has no positive value his only value is NEGATIVE. If you move him you will eat money. The only question is how much you have to eat before you can even discuss prospects coming back.
For 2016 he’s sitting at under 1 WAR. Let’s round it up and say he’s worth maybe $8M this year. That puts you in the hole for close to $8M in 2016. As you project out you expect continued regression due to age/injuries. If a GM were forced to sign a guy like Kemp to a 3 year deal this winter (and no GM would even consider a 3 year deal for Kemp) I would be shocked if he would go above 3/$20. If that valuation is even close, then the Braves would need to eat $28M just to get out from under the contract. To get talent back, you would be spending more than $28M or packaging Kemp with someone who actually has any value.
Oh … and I wasn’t just looking at just last year in determining his value. 2015 he was even worse at 0.4 fWAR. 2014 was his most recent peak at 1.4 fWAR. 2013 he was at negative 0.4 fWAR. All told, in his 4 most recent years he’s been worth a combined 2.2 fWAR. Put another way, 2.2 fWAR is what you would expect for a player to contribute in a SINGLE year at $16M (not over a 4 year span). Put another way, the combined value of Kemp over the last 4 years is worth less than what you’ll get out of a typical 40 game stretch from Mike Trout..
^this. Not sure how an article saying that Matt kemp has positive trade value got published…
I didn’t see a catcher on that list, Braves trade for McCann in the winter. Yanks will pay part of the salary and get a good prospect like Newcomb.
Haha Coppy isn’t trading any top ten prospects for Brian McCann. LOL
I think Atlanta has been happy with Recker & Flowers, doubt they go after McCann hard because of what the Yankees would want in return.
We gonna trade a bunch of good prospects for McCann who will prolly hit .220
As much as I’m a fan of McCann, at this point of his career with his contract, he definitely isn’t worth a prospect like Newcomb. I’ve seen several fan based articles where the Yankee fans were dramatically over valuing him.
They were saying he would return a good prospect without the Yankees eating any salary and forget he fell through waivers.
Go ask O’Flaherty about how much McCann means to pitchers. Hell go ask pretty much any pitcher McCann has caught for. He does things that other catchers don’t that help pitchers. atlanta.braves.mlb.com/news/print.jsp?ymd=20120221…
NO! No good prospects and they pay most of his salary. Then we talk. At this point in his career though I’d rather just pass and find someone else entirely.
I don’t think Coppi is going to make a stupid move like that even if the Yankees eat half McCanns contract. He is only going to continue his decline and he has gotten pretty bad as it is.
6. Dave Stewart*
*honorable mention. Missed cutoff by 23 days.
Trade Markakis and Whalen to O’s for Bundy and T.Scott. Sign A.Avila to platoon with Flowers. Sign J.Garcia.
You’re not getting Bundy for that.
With all the time and effort BAL has put into Bundy, there’s no way there’s not an overpay to acquire him. They don’t want to see a Jake Arrieta 2.0.
The Nick Markakis contract was widely recognized as a stupid overpay which nobody was interested in matching at the time it was given to him. He’s now spent two years being a below-average starting outfielder since he got the contract.
If organizations weren’t interested in paying him for his 2017 and 2018 seasons then, why on earth would they want to commit themselves to paying that salary now, much less surrender any talent in return for the opportunity to do so?
Markakis has been worth about what his contract this year wouldn’t you think? He’ll end up with around 90 RBIs and 13-ish HRs. That’s at least average. If they deal him they will most likely eat some salary to get a decent prospect in return.
There are 31 guys who’ve got 500 plate appearances this year who are primarily corner outfielders. Markakis doesn’t fall into the top half of that group for average, on-base or slugging percentage (where he’s in the bottom four). Whatever your advanced metric of choice is says that, among all hitters in the game, he’s right at the average point. Except he plays (poorly) a defensive position which demands offensive production.
At the time he was traded, Melvin Upton (who was owed more money per year, but is only a one-year commitment) was outproducing the statline Markakis has now, and also providing significantly more offensive and defensive value. He netted an interesting short-season pitcher who sits comfortably toward the back end of the Padres’ top 30 prospects.
Nick Markakis is not going to yield much of a trade return.
The Braves have a history of dealing young players for veterans that flame out immediately they need to hold Inciarte and Smith. Inciarte is the better Center Fielder and Smith should be able to adapt to a corner outfield spot. His only draw back will be arm strength. Markais should probably be the one dealt but if the Braves can find a team with stars in there eyes for Kemp they should take the deal. Worse case scenario they keep all 4 and platoon Markakis and Kemp with Smith getting days off from time to time as well. As for starters the Braves gamble on starting pitching doesn’t seem to be working. I fully expect Newcomb to be the next Northcraft or Gilmartin.
Doesn’t seem to be working, based on Newcomb? He had an incredible 2nd half. And don’t even focus on him, what about the masterful AA rotation of Fried, Touissaint, Weigel, Sims? They breezed through competition. Going back to Newcomb, I don’t understand the comparison to Gilmartin whom I believe had TJ before being drafted (by Wren – along with Northcraft). I’m sorry, but I don’t see your point. Blair has done the least maturation of all our prospect pitchers, and even he just got a nice 6 IP win vs. a wild-card contending NYM team on the road, opposite Thor Syndergaard. Know your team.
Newcomb has a bb/9 of 4.56. The fact that he is still having command/control issues should be worrisome. He’s always had fantastic stuff, the question has always been whether or not he’ll be able to locate it.
When did those pitchers breeze through AA competition? Have Fried and Touki even played at AA yet?
Since I know you’re a dedicated Braves fan, I’m going to give you the benefit of the doubt that “AA” was just a typo. Because those guys are the LOW-A rotation.
Separately, you’re significantly over-stating their success at that level.
Newcomb is on another level “stuff wise” compared to Gilmartin. Gilmartin was a 3/4 starter at best, where everyone agrees Newcomb’s ceiling is a 1.
Not everyone…From Dan Farnsworth – fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-2016-prospects-…
“Newcomb has the ceiling of a high-end starter, but with some sequencing and command issues that need to be addressed, his likely future role is a bit lower than that. I think it balances out to give him room to grow on his command and feel, though with a slightly lower ceiling than might be expected given his overall stuff.”
*note – high end does not necessarily mean #1
You’ll also notice the likely fv on him has him at a 3/4 pitcher.
I don’t think Newcomb’s ever going to end up a true #1 but when he is on, he is certainly difficult to hit. Newcomb’s issues however are similar to many other young hard throwers throughout the game’s history, simply that at times he is wild and inconsistent.
For example:
Max Scherzer had a 3.86 bb/9 in the minors
Sandy Koufax in his first 6 years in the majors had a 5.27 bb/9
Nolan Ryan had a 4.67 bb/9 for his career!
Randy Johnson had a 5.70 bb/9 in his first 5 years in the majors
Jake Arrieta even had a 4.38 bb/9 in his first 2 years in the majors and no one really ever remembers he was pretty wild at one point.
Some pitchers get over their lack of command, and others never do. I am certain that the Braves are far from giving up on Newcomb at this point in his career (despite the fact that he may never show much control). I think that some fans forget Newcomb was from a cold weather state where he may not had gotten the reps under good instruction that may have helped him learn control. I for one am anxious to see how he develops even if he is frustrating at times with walks.
Comparing walk rates at Double-A to walk rates in the Majors is a great way to draw really bad conclusions. Comparing anyone to Randy Johnson is a spectacular way to draw horribly bad conclusions.
I’m certainly a big believer that development paths are non-linear, and there are plenty of indicators in Newcomb’s arsenal that he might be able to make a significant step forward. But comparing apples to bowling balls is a bad way to find those indicators.
The purpose of my illustration was to throw out some big names of historical hard throwers that almost any reader here would know which at times struggled with their control. In doing so it would help cement my point that not everyone progresses the same. The names I chose were literally the first names that popped into my head. Of course, it should always be understood that it is likely much more difficult to have a low walk rate in the major as compared to the minor leagues. No one knows for a fact what Newcomb will develop into. At no time did I intend to infer that I thought Newcomb would likely develop into a pitcher who would have those type careers. I apologize that I wasn’t clear enough on that where you took it otherwise. Unfortunately not all our readers are as astute, knowledgeable or as eloquent as you sometimes appear to be.
Play Ender in Left Center, Mallex in Right Center, Kemp can sit on beanbag chair in the corner.
With his 30/100? As much as I like Mallex and Ender, we need pop and protection for Freeman, and Markakis isn’t going to do that.
LOL Run, I think Dookie Howser was joking that Mallex and Ender could probably cover the outfield while Kemp (still in the lineup mind ya) was resting to take his swings when his spot came up to hit.
I think you are right, especially because he said bean bag chair instead of bench. I laughed at his comment while visualizing these two outfielders covering lcf and rcf and matt kemp in a bean bag chair at the center field wall drinking a beer and cheering them on.
People keep talking about Defense, Defense, Defense! Thank god the nerds have hijacked the game with BS stat categories. How’s that turning out for the 180mil defensive specialist in Chicago? Give me 25-30hrs 100rbi’s
I could care less about Defense, just make the routine plays.
I may be old school, or i just love offense. But I am with tsolid, i think defensive metrics are slightly over-rated. At least to date anyway.
Lol. Remember 10 years ago when all those “nerds” were going to be the end of the game because they over-valued offense and needed to sit next to the “old school” guys and learn to appreciate how important defense and baserunning are in the game?
You’re not old-school. You’re a reactionary Luddite.
Such a nice guy
YOUR name says it all. DisgruntledDOUCHE is more appropriate. The actual game hasn’t change, except the suits wanted more involvement to get more Ivy League business people involved.
disgruntledreader may not share your opinions (and without a doubt they are not always on the exact same page as I am), but they are welcome to there opinions just as much as you (or I) are. They did call you a reactionary,luddite since you appeared (right or wrong my you) as someone who was reacting to things they didn’t understand.
Do you really believe that suits wanted more involvement from Ivy League business people? Of do you think it is much more likely that front offices across the board have started looking for anything possible to give them a competitive advantage? Major league baseball is a business when you get down to it. The owners are often business people who look at numbers as the best way to evaluate the production of assets (think of players). Some organizations value some metrics (and the way they are calculated) higher than others. Others have different business philosophies.
Just like no two opinions in these threads are totally identical, I’m sure few (if any) of the major league baseball teams value the EXACT same things the EXACT same way, nor do they use the EXACT same system sometimes to evaluate them.
I haven’t been reactionary to anything. It’s a fact the these younger GM’s pitch to he Owner of losing franchises are “I can rebuild your minor league system and Make you a butt load of $$$ in the meantime”. Yes, Sabr/analytic guys have bullied their way into the game and started discounted stats, such as wins/rbi’s in preference to Defense. They somehow convinced everyone the Heyward was better than Upton, Cespedes
Wins are a team stat, not an individual stat and rbis are a stat based on opportunity and the talent of those ahead of you. I’m sorry that you don’t understand why teams have stopped relying on these stats as ways to evaluate an individual player.
The cubs have the best defense in baseball. Their starting pitchers are all running and era that is better than their fip. They also have relatively low babips. So you may think that defense is over rated, but if you take a look at the cubs as an example, having a strong defense can really help your pitching staff.
As an opposite example, you can look at the dbacks. They have a pretty subpar defense and their pitchers are running eras that are much higher than their fip. Last year, when they had a better defense, their pitcher’s eras were much closer to their fips.
Defense makes a pretty big difference for your pitching staff,
Something I was looking at that is very encouraging is that as far as runs scored goes, Atl is 28th. But, since the All-Star Break they are 5th in all of baseball. That is very encouraging. Also, that shows how absolutely terrible the Braves were the first half. Somehow they scored the 5th most runs post all-star, yet are still 28th. What a turn around offensively. #Snitker2016
Coppi is a clever GM. When we read about him saying he is going make big moves, I don’t THINK he is going to try and pull a Diamond Backs 2016 or a Padres 2015 kind of over hall. Trading for Swanson was enormous but it wasn’t anything like pushing the Braves into immediate contention.
Braves fans were once told contention would start in 2017. Well..that’s probably not happening. FA signings should be used to compliment an already winning team. If we go all in on Ramos and Cespedes, it’s a mistake.
Would the Braves trade Inciarte, Markakis Foltynewicz for Gray and Vogt?
Probably not in my opinion, because:
1. they need Foltynewicz as well because while they have a large stable of great pitching prospects most of them are no higher than High A ball and the team repeatedly has said they desire to be competitiive (in other words I don’t look for them to deal any pitching from the major league roster only the minor league ones
2. there are a LOT of question marks about Gray right now
3. I don’t think that the A’s really want to sell low on Gray (unless they know for a high probability that he most likely won’t return to form
I will say the idea is intriguing but I for one just don’t look at it as a likely to happen.
Right, I can’t see the braves parting with Foltynewicz, but it’s possible. Gray is somebody they can build hype on, and so is Vogt. Maybe throwing in Lowrie would seal the deal. They have holes in their OF, and filling those gaps should be their priority. Inciarte would have to be the key piece for this to work.
I also think the braves will sign premier FA’s to fill in their rotation, so maybe they’ll be more willing to part with Foltynewicz. But the A’s would probably want a few guys from that farm too for it to be a fair trade.
Trade with CUBS Mallex,Jenkins,Ellis and Herbert for Contreras,Happ and De La Cruz. Trade Markakis,Newcombe and Pache for Bundy. Sign J.Garcia.
While I would not mind seeing the first trade happen (although I see good things in the future for Mallex especially) I don’t see the Cubs doing that deal.
The second trade I’m not sure that I’d want to deal Newcomb and Pache even though I know Bundy finally seems to be getting it all figured out.
If Garcia has his option bought out and is available he seems a likely candidate for the Braves to buy low on.
The first proposal calls for the Cubs to surrender the two best players in the trade. That’s seldom a good starting point for a realistic proposal.
In Offseason the Braves should trade with Astros:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::Blair,Jenkins,Mallex,,Seymour,Whalen and Webb for J.Castro,Springer,J.Hoyt and R.Guduan.