With the deadline just over a month away, the top trade candidate series keeps trucking. I’ll be honest: this post required a re-write after yesterday’s action. The list is in flux with Fernando Rodney (who would’ve been #4) and Bud Norris (he’d have cracked the back of the ranking) changing hands … not to mention Sean Doolittle and Jon Jay hitting the DL, some injured players returning, and others pushing into trade contention. We’re also rolling out our second expansion of the ranking.
Your weekly reminder: we’re not just ranking players by skill alone; we’re looking at overall asset value and trade likelihood. To assess trade value, we’re starting with overall on-field ability — with a premium on the capacity to make an impact in the current season — and then adjusting for contract and market factors. With contenders’ needs in relatively sharp focus, limitations such as future contract status, age, and niche role (platoon bats, relief-only pitchers) tend to have less of a drag on value — though obviously they still matter quite a bit. With regard to the likelihood of a swap, the focus is on potential selling teams’ motivation to deal, with contract status, near and long-term roster fit, and overall competitiveness all weighing heavily. Some teams simply aren’t in a position at present where it makes sense to include their top potential trade chips, but that will evolve over the coming weeks.
Here’s this week’s list:
1. Jay Bruce, OF, Reds — The song remains the same. Teams looking for lefty pop are surely weighing a move for Bruce. His $13MM option for next year is increasingly looking nice, as the coming free agent market isn’t the most exciting. Acquiring teams could pencil Bruce in for 2017 or see that added control as a trade asset to recoup the value given to add him. With Jon Jay seemingly falling out of trade contention due to an unfortunate injury, that only increases the appeal of the other corner outfielders on the market.
2. Jonathan Lucroy, C, Brewers — Not much to add here, either. The question is still whether sufficient demand will develop. From my perspective, it’s hard to imagine that no teams will be truly motivated to add a premium player on a budget deal.
3. Josh Reddick, OF, Athletics — Reddick moves right off the DL and onto this list for the first time. We’ve heard plenty about the possibility of an extension, and that still seems plausible. But players of his quality on expiring contracts with underperforming teams usually end up being traded, and I don’t think that the possibility of a qualifying offer will be much of a factor. Reddick is hitting at career-best rates and is playing on a very reasonable $6.575MM salary.
4. Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers — I’m increasingly questioning whether enough demand will develop to motivate Milwaukee here. Braun might be an easier player to deal in the offseason, when he’d represent an alternative to forthcoming free agents like Yoenis Cespedes and Jose Bautista. On the other hand, clubs could see some merit in doing their winter shopping early while adding a premium right-handed bat for the stretch run.
5. Danny Valencia, 3B, Athletics — The OPS still resides comfortably above .900. One important factor in his trade value and likelihood: the presence of several other viable third base options on the market.
6. Zack Cozart, SS, Reds — We just broke down Cozart’s market situation, so read there for more. Teams looking for a useful hitter with a premium glove up the middle probably won’t find a better or more affordable option. That said, demand remains unclear and Cinci doesn’t need to deal him right now.
7. Jake Odorizzi, SP, Rays — Odorizzi makes a big move into the top ten. It’s hardly necessary for Tampa Bay to trade him, of course, as he’ll only reach arb eligibility next year. But with the club falling back of late while dealing with numerous injuries, the appeal of cashing in a sturdy, controllable starter in a seller’s market is increasing. And if the team’s rehabbing starters remain on course, dealing from the rotation might not even be that painful. Especially if the Braves hold firm on Teheran, perhaps Tampa Bay could get a nice return for Odorizzi.
8. Arodys Vizcaino, RP, Braves — Vizcaino hasn’t always had premium strikeout numbers, but they are trending up this season. He has reeled off three straight solid outings since we last checked in, despite a few recent duds, so it’s not so much that he’s moving down the list as it is that the others are moving up.
9. Mark Melancon, RP, Pirates — The Pirates’ closer keeps getting the job done: he hasn’t allowed an earned run since May 15th and has surrendered just two hits in his nine frames this month. Even if Pittsburgh doesn’t move other assets, it’ll have to seriously consider cashing in a player who will be a free agent at the end of the year. While he isn’t as electric as some other top late-inning relievers, and though his peripherals aren’t all that exciting (particularly with his groundball rate diving thus far), Melancon is the type of rental that could bring back a really nice piece in return.
10. Julio Teheran, SP, Braves — GM John Coppolella suggested recently that Teheran is nearly as untouchable as Freddie Freeman, though it remains unclear what body part he’d stake on the righty. (If you don’t get that reference, read here for Coppy’s comments from the offseason.)
11. Rich Hill, SP, Athletics — While he’s still technically on the DL, Hill is set to be activated on Saturday. That said, he won’t reclaim his top-five status on this list until he has shown that he’s at full capacity. Though his groin injury isn’t particularly concerning, the larger injury history and stunning late-career rise will already give some teams pause. Still, the starter rental market is in shambles and he could yet be a prime deadline asset.
12. Drew Pomeranz, SP, Padres — Pomeranz has had some shaky outings that leave you wondering whether he truly has found something. But his most recent outing was a gem, and he’s carrying a 2.76 ERA through 88 frames. The MLBTR staff recently debated whether or not San Diego should deal Pomeranz away. He’s cheap and controllable, which will certainly hold huge appeal for teams that don’t want to burn up prospects for pure rentals, but that also makes him quite useful for the Friars — who could also let him try to build more value and then spin him off over the winter.
13. Jeremy Hellickson, SP, Phillies — Hellickson isn’t a guy you add with expectations that he’ll be starting postseason games, but he has certainly pitched well enough to plug a hole in a rotation. There’s a ton of value in that for teams looking to eke out wins in tight races, and he seems rather likely to be dealt before he reaches free agency this fall.
14. Jeremy Jeffress, RP, Brewers — You’re probably not adding Jeffress as a closer, or perhaps even a pure eighth-inning guy, but that doesn’t mean he’s not going to draw interest. He has been consistently good for some time now, and teams won’t feel too bad about giving up value for him since there’s reasonably-priced control yet to come (though his saves tallies will eat into that).
15. Yunel Escobar, 3B, Angels — Escobar is a little dinged up, though he’s not yet on the DL. It’s doubtful that other organizations will view him as any kind of savior, but in the right situation he could be a critical stabilizing piece. Plus, he could be plugged into different positions in 2017 or dealt over the winter to offset the initial acquisition cost.
16. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies — Even if a playoff berth remains rather unlikely, I just wonder whether there’s any real possibility of a deal coming together so long as Colorado hangs around .500. But Gonzalez is raking, so he could shoot up this list if and when the team can no longer plausibly claim any hope of contending.
17. Ervin Santana, SP, Twins — As with Hellickson, Santana seems ready to move right into the four or five slot of a contender with back-end rotation issues. The results aren’t exciting, but he has been durable and useful for quite some time now. He’s playing on a $13.5MM salary this year, with another $27MM to come over the next two, so any move would be about Minnesota saving some cash. Nobody is taking that full commitment, though, so the Twins will have to decide whether it’s worth trimming its future obligations or just keeping Santana around to fortify their own rotation for the next couple of seasons.
18. David Freese, 3B, Pirates — The sturdy veteran is hitting at levels he hasn’t seen since 2012, and he’s doing it on a meager $3MM salary. Plus, Pittsburgh could easily cover for his absence, particularly with Jung Ho Kang back and Sean Rodriguez performing, so he could be sold without the organization abandoning all hope of contending.
19. Chris Carter, 1B, Brewers — He’s back! Carter made our first list but fell off after a rough stretch. They say he’s streaky, though, so let’s check in on his total results in June … oh, well. 253/.360/.494 with six home runs. That’ll do. An organization looking to plug some thump into its first base/DH rotation is going to have a tough time finding a more available and affordable option than Carter. The Brewers don’t have to deal him, and there’s not a ton of upside given his many limitations, but he has a place in the trade deadline landscape.
20. Melvin Upton, OF, Padres — Also returning to the list is the elder Upton brother. There are other fourth outfield types, as well as a few infielders and relievers, who also warranted consideration here — most of whom would probably be easier to move given their contracts. But San Diego has been the most aggressive seller thus far, and Upton’s strong work this year could make for an opportune time to dump a decent chunk of his remaining salary obligations.
Keep reading for more names that were considered …
Injured:
Tyson Ross & Jon Jay (Padres), Jake McGee (Rockies), Joe Smith (Angels), Steve Pearce (Rays), Sean Doolittle (Athletics), Gordon Beckham (Braves)
Just Missed:
Huston Street, Hector Santiago & Fernando Salas (Angels) — Los Angeles is all but buried at this point, but their stable of trade assets isn’t looking all that perky at the moment.
Sonny Gray, Khris Davis, Jed Lowrie, Ryan Madson & Billy Butler (Athletics) — Though the A’s have suggested they aren’t yet ready to pack it in, that’s where this thing is headed barring a miracle. I still don’t see Gray leaving unless a surprising offer comes across the table, but Oakland has some very appealing assets — the best of which are listed among the top twenty.
Ender Inciarte & Nick Markakis (Braves) — We haven’t heard of much development on the potential market for these Atlanta outfielders.
Will Smith & Aaron Hill (Brewers) — Smith could warrant a spot on the list, but he’s striking out opposing hitters at about half his usual rate. Milwaukee has no reason to sell low on him, so right now he doesn’t have much steam as a trade candidate. Hill has been uneven, but could be a useful utility piece for the right team.
Welington Castillo, Daniel Hudson, Brad Ziegler & Tyler Clippard (Diamondbacks) — GM Dave Stewart says that he wants to keep the bullpen band together if possible, and neither of the pending free agents (Hudson and Ziegler) is looking like a hot commodity at the moment. Hudson has had a very rough stretch of late, coughing up eight earned runs on ten hits over his last four outings. He has recorded just five outs in that span, none via strikeout. Meanwhile, Ziegler just keeps trucking along and would surely draw interest, but isn’t the kind of power arm that teams will give up a haul to get.
Andrew Cashner, Derek Norris & Matt Kemp (Padres) — Cashner is set to return from the DL on Sunday, so we’ll see if he can pitch his way into some interest. Norris is pushing for a seat at the table (er, placement on our list) with his recent productive run at the plate.
David Hernandez & Jeanmar Gomez (Phillies) — Hernandez has been knocked around this month, but Gomez is still humming along with solid results. Odds are, though, he won’t draw any kind of big offers despite the fact that he’s pitching in the ninth inning.
Matt Joyce, Sean Rodriguez, Andrew McCutchen, Juan Nicasio, Neftali Feliz, Tony Watson (Pirates) — It’s awfully tough to put a talented Pittsburgh team into the likely seller camp, but the club may need to be realistic with the Cubs seemingly running away with the division. The Bucs will be much more likely to re-tool for 2017 than anything else, but they have some interesting players on short-term contracts who could be cashed in — particularly if the organization decides the time is right to give a shot to some of its impressive upper-level prospects. Pittsburgh’s role on the market is a major wild card.
Logan Morrison, Matt Moore, Erasmo Ramirez & Xavier Cedeno (Rays) — The rumblings on Moore have increased, but it’s still tough to gauge where there’ll be more motivation to add him than to pursue Odorizzi, who has a better recent track record. Ramirez might just be the next player traded, though he isn’t exactly a major piece.
Mark Reynolds, Nick Hundley, Jorge De La Rosa, Ryan Raburn (Rockies) — There are some potentially useful veteran pieces here, but none that will likely move the needle on the team’s farm system enough to prompt a move from Colorado.
Fernando Abad, Trevor Plouffe & Eduardo Nunez (Twins) — Nunez was probably the last guy not to make the top twenty. He is falling off of his unsustainable pace but is still producing, but the results just haven’t been there for the other two.
Jeremy Hellickson and Jeanmar Gomez for Yohander Mendez and Conner Sadzeck
Heck, Rangers fan.. you can have chooch too if u want.
How does an ACE like Teheran land at #10? Shouldn’t he #1? With Kershaw down, he is likely the #1 pitcher in the league.
I can’t tell if sarcastic or not, so I’ll let you answer before I go on about how Teheran isn’t even close to being the best pitcher in his own division, He’s actually like 6th in his division.
It is sarcasm.
@Brixton given his track record and he’s been health all his career, I’d take him over almost everyone in the division.
Fernandez too??
Still can’t tell if sarcasm.
Give me Fernandez, deGrom, Stras, Scherzer and Thor over him.
Over Syndergaard, Harvey, DeGrom, Scherzer, Strasburg, Fernandez? Are you kidding? Hell I’d think about taking Nola and Matz over him too…
Have you seen Harvey pitch lately? Funny you mention Degrom because Teheran just outpitched him head to head in two consecutive starts. Strasburg is having a nice year, but he goes on the DL every time he stubs a toe. Matz also has serious durability issues. Fernandez is great, but whoever has him better pray he never needs another tommy john surgery.
Head-to-head match ups are as meaningful as RBIs and Wins for pitchers.
Stras is a better pitcher, as is Fernandez.
Teheran is a #3.
And people wonder why everyone hates Braves fans.
Yeah, he’s actually a solid #2 for most teams and I don’t care what his peripherals say because he has a habit of outperforming those.
Why would he continue to out pitch his peripherals when other similar pitchers couldn’t continue to out pitch theirs? Over the past 25 years, there has been one pitcher, just one, who has been able to continue getting good results and out pitching his peripherals after having a similar start to their career as Teheran. Why should everyone consider Teheran a once in a generation pitcher, when 90 percent of the other pitchers in the same situation couldn’t do it? We’re even talking about some all time greats like Mussina, who couldn’t continue to out pitch his peripherals from age 26-28 like he did through age 25. Mussina had a 3.20 ERA and 3.67 FIP through his age 25 season, then a 3.80 ERA and 3.78 FIP from seasons 26-28. Why should we expect Teheran to continue doing it when just about everyone else, including borderline HOF Mike Mussina couldn’t?
Oh, I don’t know. Maybe because he’s already done it every year he’s been in the bigs. Good to see you can cherry pick stats with the best of them.
All what.. 3.5 years? Assuming someone is going to outperform projectile statistics because hes done it before is like saying someone who runs in traffic won’t get hit by a car because they haven’t yet.
Terrible analogy, first of all. Almost as terrible as that trade you keep proposing as if you haven’t read any of Coppy’s comments at all. 3.5 years? Absolutely. Starting to look like a pretty conclusive pattern developing there to everybody except his detractors, who are becoming more laughable everyday. If it isn’t FIP, you’ll just turn to league or whatever to devalue him. And all of Boston’s prospects are going to be first ballot hall of famers. Sure thing, because that ALWAYS works out.
Don’t you love it when #3 pitchers do ace production?
Don’t you love it when #3 pitchers give up lots of home runs in a pitchers park and have a FIP of 3.87 for their career? Or when that #3 has an unsustainable 5.9 H/9?
Or when that “ace” had an average fastball of 90.8 MPH?
Wins are VERY meaningful. RBI’s are meaningful. the bottom line in baseball is scoring runs and winning games. all the other roto stats are fun for those into bill james analysis of the game.
RBIs and pitcher wins have very little to do with actually winning games though. Runs scored and runs prevented are the stats that matter. Pitcher wins are useless. Tony Sipp won a game last season in which he threw exactly one pitch.
Here’s the thing … why are they valuable? Because they reflect other underlying skills (situational awareness, contact ability, durability, ability to focus in pressure situations, etc.) Some of those things are measurable, some observable from a scouting perspective. But the stats you reference contain lots of other noise (including luck) and they aren’t predictive. So they aren’t really a full reflection of the actual thing you’re trying to value.
Personally, I’m much more interested in hearing an assessment of the underlying skills from a scout than I am in trying to ascribe value through these built-up stats that only have traction because they happen to be the stats that were available decades back. It’s always been a bit funny to me that people hate on stats but then prefer other stats! You say the point is scoring runs and winning games … well, that’s exactly how the value of many of the advanced states is arrived at — in assessing the portion of a run (and hence a win) that is ascribed to any given result.
And that fastball average will go up. He started out the season pretty slow, but he’s been sitting comfortably at 92-93 mph with an ability to run it up in the mid 90’s on occasion.
Yet you just put Thor and Degrom and Fernandez over him not saying he is better than any but your arguments are too inconsistent and contradict each other a lot you ding Teheran for 3.5 years in favor of guys who have pitched less, two whom have already had TJS and the 3rd looking like a likely candidate.
I want to apologize in advance the length of this post. Now, this has nothing to do with the Red Sox. I dislike the Red Sox more than any team in any sport. I would hope Atlanta works a trade with them that dwarfs the Miller trade and if they take their top 5 prospects, I couldn’t be happier. This has to do with trying to gauge the market and analyzing a player’s true trade value. While ERA is great at telling the story of what has happened, it’s not good at predicting what will happen in the future. Stats like FIP and xFIP are much better at telling us what that player will do in the future. Smart GMs don’t trade or sign players based on what they have done, but what they expect them to do. That’s where the disconnect between many Braves fans in the Teheran camp and most of the others on here are coming from.
I’m not cherry picking stats here. I’ve looked at the history of pitchers over the past 25 years who are have at least 600 IP through their age 25 season and also have an ERA at least 0.40 runs better than their FIP. I then compared these same pitchers to their age 26-28 seasons. There has been exactly one pitcher over those 25 years who has a lower ERA in his age 26-28 seasons, than he did in his age 25 and under seasons. To expect Teheran to continue having an ERA below 3.30 over the next 3 years would mean he is doing something that a once in a generation pitcher has been able to do. As a collective unit, these pitchers had a 3.61 ERA and 4.16 FIP through their age 25 seasons. These same pitchers then had a 4.07 ERA and 4.17 FIP in their age 26-28 seasons.
Again, if the Braves keep him or not, I don’t really care. However, if Braves fans think Teheran is going to continue to have an ERA below 3.30 instead of an ERA over 3.80, they’ll most likely be very disappointed with him.
I’m curious because I’ve seen more than a few say “in the last 25 years”. Is that because of limited availability of stats? Arbitrary time frame? Supposed change in the style of the game? Was there a large number of aberrations to the theory outside the 25 year window?
Look I’m not saying that Teheran will continue his magic as far as beating his peripherals over X time factor but if it has been done before then there is a non zero chance it could be done again (no matter how unlikely).
Lance how is a pitchers wins VERY meaningful? Huh? Its a useless stat. You cam give up ten runs and get the “win” you can throw 9 innings with one run and get the loss. Its a joke
Bravesfan does not care about his peripherals because the peripherals suck.
Southi, it isn’t a few people saying that. It’s one guy that keeps saying that
I wish we had a poll up to see if that was true since you can read everyones minds and you know who everyone hates. Not too long ago it was Cardinal fans. Then it was Boston fans. Next week you’ll probably say something different
This was never chosen to be a subject for a research project. It was mainly in response to posters saying that Teheran will keep up his FIP busting ways because he has done it for x seasons or x innings. I chose 25 years arbitrarily, since it was an easy number to work with is the number in my head that I think of when I think of a generation of ball players.
I just took a quick look back another 25 years and there were two pitchers in that group who improved their ERAs from age 26-28 over their ERAs through 25. I didn’t go too deeply into the numbers to see how everything stacked up, but from a quick look I didn’t see any marked differences.
I agree, there is a non zero chance Teheran can keep up his FIP busting ways and many of these players continued to be quality MLB pitchers, just not like they were in their younger years. I know if I was a rival GM, I would want Teheran on my team. I just wouldn’t pay the price if Atlanta was valuing him as 3.00 ERA type of pitcher. The good news for Braves fans, I was saying the same thing about Shelby Miller (another FIP buster) last year and you found someone who trusted his ERA numbers. Remember, it only takes one.
Sorry for the length of this post, but I had to get this off my chest!!
Ok JudgeJudy it’s funny that you’re trying to be sarcastic about another player, when you literally called Blake Rutherford a future HOF 2 days ago in another thread. If you we’re going to be sarcastic, that was the time to be sarcastic. I can’t take anything you say seriously
Brixton get a hobby dude. Seems like you have some vendetta against that man. You point out stats and try to make Teheran look bad, but the pitchers that you claim to like more have the same stats or worse. You just said that Teheran gives up a bunch of homers, but above that you said that you would take Scherzer over him (which most people might). Who do you think has given up more HR’s out of Teheran and Scherzer this year? Scherzer has. So you can’t bomb on one pitcher for giving up HR’s and then not say anything about one of the pitchers you would take over him that has given up more HR’s than he has. Scherzer gave up 27 HR’s last year. He has already given 20 so far this year and we’re not even at the all star break. You contradict yourself. You also said he gives up a bunch of HR’s in a pitchers park. Well what do you think Sonny Gray pitches in? A pitchers heaven. He has given up 3 less HR’s than Teheran has in 28 less innings. How do you know that his H/9 is unsustainable? I’m not saying that it wouldn’t be hard for him to do. It might nit be that exactly, but it could be like 6.9 H/9 at the end of the season. What I’m saying is you don’t know. You can’t predict the future and you can’t predict how good someone is going to pitch. Quit putting it off like it is a fact. You might think something is unsustainable, but that doesn’t make it a fact. I will give you props for coming up with a different argument. First it was FIP. Then it was league and divisions. Now its HR’s. What will it be next? His FB is 90 mph? Do you watch the games or read stats from a computer? Proof is in the pudding. Watch with your own eyes how his velocity is. Weak arguments dude!
Therealryan, so we have a stat that can predict the future? If that’s the case then we shouldn’t wait until the end of the season to give out the CY Young award. We should give it out at the beginning since we can predict who is going to do what. Right? Did it predict that Dallas Keuchel was going to be as good as he was last year and win the AL CY Young. Did it predict how bad David Price was going to be so far this year? No it didn’t. His total FIP last year 2.78. He has a 4.74 era so far this year. Good prediction I would say. If it’s so good at predicting then why do some pitchers out pitch their FIP for multiple years? Since you say it can predict, look at pitchers FIP and tell me who wins the CY Young Award this year in both leagues. FIP is not always accurate. You keep saying “once in a generation pitcher.” I’ll say what another guy in a different thread said. HOF pitcher Tom Glavine out pitched his FIP almost his whole career. Johny Cueto has been doing it for years. Sonny Gray has out pitched his as well. Hate to break the news to you, but FIP isn’t the tell all of pitching stats and it doesn’t do a great job of predicting every pitchers future.
Teheran is not an ace….right now but may be soon giving the right team, but as far as trading him like an “ace” braves fans are braves fan they thank they have all the best players I tell you if Teheran was so great– braves fan would be enjoying watching soler and Baez in a brave uniform but we the Cubs went a better route “right now” in lackey….. That’s not saying much for Teheran huh….good ace for the braves.. Very good 2,3,4, anywhere else. Face it braves fans outside of freeman who is tired of carrying the braves you have not top flight players of major league readiness….btw quit thanking you are still in the years of glav, mad, smoltz
Thanks for your reply. therealryan.. I do think that FIP is a useful stat, but it isn’t a tell all predictor of future events. There are so many other things to weigh when making decisions.
As you just said: “it only takes one”.
Listen here kidk, I haven’t seen a Braves fan say the Braves had the best players, so that statement holds no argument. Also the Cubs have been at the bottom of the barrel for years and have been rebuilding for forever and just because they have had 1 1/2 years of success doesn’t make them the kings of MLB. Your talking like they’ve won something. Soler, the guy that is hitting .223 and is currently on the DL. Oh yea I would love to see him in a Braves uni. Teheran is doing better than Lackey and they went for Lackey because he cost money and not prospects. Ridiculous statement.
Another thing kid. Read my comment. I was comparing Tom Glavines numbers and his FIP, not wishing he was still pitching moron.
Your Cubbies have Met problems right now so before you crown your team the best and your players mvp’s, you need to hope that your team can get past those guys because the last 8 meeting they have been mollywhopped
Teheran is likely a #2-3 on just about every other team. Just because he’s the Braves ace doesn’t make him an ace everywhere. He’s had a couple of good games, but he’s not the #1 in MLB, NL, or NL East.
Love your show, Judge Judy, but if you think Teheran is the best pitcher in the league you’re nuts!
He was being sarcastic
I am waiting for Chris815 or whoever his name is to pop up and try to prove you wrong lol
Okay: Cubs get: Markakis, Freeman Teheran, Vizcaino, Braves get: Bryant, Baez, Rizzo, Arrietta, Zobrist, Fowler and Joe Maddon. Atlanta sends Hank Aaron and Dale Murphy to the Indians for Carlos Carrasco and Kenny Lofton. Cleveland flips Aaron to the Red Sox for the cryogenically frozen head of Ted Williams and the Bill Buckner ball.
The asking price for him… An do you mean he’s the number 1 pitcher in the nl with kershaw down or the #1 trade piece? Cause if you have Teheran over players like arrieta then your just silly
Cool story bro…
Why isn’t Ryan Buchter listed? I think he’d be a solid bullpen piece.
He’s controllable for another five years, which makes him a fairly unlikely trade candidate.
I am not going to lie, I have come to terms with the way Atlanta is dealing their players away. As a Braves fan of 27 years old, I haven’t experienced much selling before these passed 2 seasons. However, if they do end up getting rid of Inciarte, I will be pretty disappointed.
Inciarte is the type of piece that teams probably think they can get cheap, then when you go calling, the Braves ask for a lot. Hes very underrated, even if he doesn’t hit a lot.
OPSing .621 and still is on a 3 WAR pace per 150 games
I don’t see much interest in Inciarte, Upton is flat out just better and would be way cheaper + the Braves will be pushing Markakis not Inciarte.
When you say cheaper you mean what teams would have to get up for him right?
Yes
Upton is better? hahahahahahahah
That’s funny, come from a Braves fan.
This year.. Upton has been better.. so..
He has! Nice to see him turn things around.
Is it he doesn’t hit a lot or he’s just had a down year at the plate this year
Hes for sure having a down year weather it be injury or other things, but I never expected him to manage his inflated batting average from playing home games in Arizona, hes probably better than he is now but not the hitter he was in Arizona either.
He won’t go anywhere. I don’t know why these places think he will. Now Markakis needs to leave.
Markakis is a weird situation for me. Logically it makes sense to trade him. However, I will be sad to see him go because during a down year like this I like to at least have some bigger names to root for. Other than Freeman, Markakis is really the only other well known name on the offense side. From a business stand point though, I def agree with you that if the Braves can move him they should.
I hate sounding like an Ender hater I really want the guy to be good but he looks more Craig Gentry than any thing at this point Don’t get me wrong having a 4th OF who can accumulate 2-3 war a year is very valuable but hes just not a star and probably will only ever be an everyday guy on bad teams.
Fair comp if you base it off this season, but Ender hits from the left side, so he’ll get twice as many ab’s vs a pitcher he can kind of hit…
Inciarte might not be a “sexy” type player but a 3 war type player is nothing to sneeze at. He can play above average defense in all three outfield spots, he is a good baserunner. On most teams he is better than a fourth outfielder.
With that said he got off to a terrible start with the bat. Personally I don’t want him traded, and his value is down. I don’t think that the braves move him at this point.
Realistic targets for the Dodgers: Bruce, Josh Reddick, Lucroy, Odorizzi, Vizcaino, and Jeffress. A package of Grandal, Hatcher or Baez, and a solid MILB product or two could bring Lucroy and Jeffress to LA. This appears to be the most realistic move at this time.
No. It couldn’t.
Ya this is a terrible deal for the brewers
Those three guys you mentioned for Lucroy are going to carry the bags for the REAL guys the Dodgers trade to Milwaukee or something? I don’t think you understand how this works.
Milwaukee is a rebuilding team so they want young talent. Hatcher is 31 and Baez is 28 and not even close to the kind of talent it would take to get Lucroy. Grandal has potential in my opinion, and I could see him in the deal but mostly because he could be a place holder to the traded Lucroy.
Milwaukee wants prospects and not just any prospects. They want top rated. Start thinking a package built around De Leon that might even include Grant Holmes.
I wouldn’t touch Hellickson. Very overrated
Who’s overrating a #5 starter with a 4.30 ERA? He’d cost you one guy in your 20-25 prospect range and a lotto pick.
Sounds better than anyone the Pirates have run out as #5 (not counting the rookies)
He’s not one of the twenty best players who could hypothetically be traded, of course, but he’s very likely to be traded. Someone will grab him to fill out their staff.
Couldn’t the Phillies get something for Gomez like the Padres did for Rodney?
Not as much, but he’s a candidate … listed with Phils guys who just missed. He was one of next 5 or so names for me. Bailey and Hernandez haven’t been good of late.
Okay makes sense! Thanks Jeff!
I would expect Teheran be higher if this list was “trade value,” but with his dominance this year and very high price.. #10 makes a bit of sense
Yeah it reflects likelihood of a deal. Unless we hear big rumors about controllable guys as the deadline approaches, the rental types will keep pushing up the list.
Teheran for Devers, Swihart and Trey Ball
Sorry but that just won’t get it done. In fact, If it wasn’t for Swihart, that could be the worst suggestion I’ve seen yet. Devers hit tool is vastly overrated and Trey Ball just doesn’t have much to work with in terms of a pitching arsenal. Just my opinion of course!
Not to mention the Braves will likely use a trade of Teheran to try to shorten their rebuild, hence why Coppy said they want a major league bat for him. Trading him for A-ball types, no matter how highly rated, isn’t going to get them back into contention faster.
Its not a bad offer at all. A top 30 prospect and a young catcher with a plus hit tool for a 2-3 WAR pitcher? That sounds like a good deal for Atlanta
Need more if you’re the braves. Way more.
This wouldn’t get the job done but not because it isn’t a fare trade. It would at least get the Braves in a talkative mood. This trade package answers two positional issues. It’s easy to make blanket statements that Devers hit tool is overrated but the scouting reports I read praise his arm strength and bat speed.
Well saying his hit tool is overrated is actually very important b/c when a RS fan tries to oversell Devers as a Moncada clone its b/c of the hit tool. I’ve read so many times that Devers has a chance to be a better hitting…. well BS to that. He’s so awesome, keep him and ship out Moncada.
Matt Shormaker?
*Shoemaker
I hate to do this, but it’s “eke” out.
Eek! Dumb error, I’ll fix.
How far down the list before you see any Cardinals? I think they are falling out of the race. They have some pieces that should be available if they continue to trend downward. Moss, Holiday, Rosenthal, Grichuk, Adams and Wong could be traded.
You won’t see any names unless/until it looks plausible.
Thanks
Would Mateo, Gardner, and Miller be enough to get Carrasco?
Possibly, but the Indians aren’t gonna trade from their only strength in a race.
I don’t see the Indians trading anyone meaningful on their big league roster unless they get WAY overpaid.
Carrasco is not available.
“Other fourth outfielder types”?
Hah!
Upton is outperforming his younger brother,for one, by a WIDE margin and is hardly a 4th outfielder.
In fact….factoring in his defense and speed he isn’t even over paid at this point.
This kid has done everything expected of him and more and should have by now erased the stigma of “over paid”!
I hope the Pads keep him but if not….depending on the return they shouldn’t have to eat much salary to move him.
Second-division starter, if you prefer. I have a hard time seeing a contender adding him with intentions that he’ll play everyday (unless it’s to deal with an injury). You could use him as a semi-regular center fielder, but he is on the wrong side of the platoon.
We’ve been talking up his restoration here for a while, but he’s owed ~$16MM annually. I still think he’s overpaid, but the margin is shrinking.
What are the chances the Rays will trade Odorizzi to a division rival? I expect the Orioles and Sox will both be in the hunt for him. The Sox have more appealing players to the Rays, but the Orioles have quite a few pieces to move as well.
I would expect to see Matt Moore traded before Odorizzi.
I don’t feel strongly about it, but I’m still not sure it’ll be an opportune time to move Moore.
What would it take for the White Sox to trade for Lucroy? Tim Anderson appears to have found a home on the big league club, but I could see Fulmer included. What else?
I’d imagine it would have to be Fulmer and Spencer Adams plus another player to even have a discussion with Milwaukee. There are quite a few teams that could use a catcher upgrade that could pretty easily beat an offer from the White Sox, if not right now, certainly in the off-season.
The White Sox really didn’t have a strong enough farm system to get Lucroy
Not a strong farm system, and the Brewers don’t really have any “bad” contracts they’d need to unload, so that’s not even an option for the White Sox to try to get Lucroy.