The Rangers and Rays have had talks about a trade that would sent right-hander Jake Odorizzi from Tampa Bay to Texas in exchange for a bat, per Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link). The two sides aren’t close to a deal but have continued their talks, per Bowden, who notes that the Rays are unsurprisingly interested in the likes of Jurickson Profar, Joey Gallo and Lewis Brinson.
It’s not clear from the report what exactly the Rangers would be willing to surrender in order to pluck Odorizzi from the Rays, but the 26-year-old figures to come with a fairly substantial asking price. Odorizzi is earning just over the league minimum this season as he won’t qualify for arbitration until the upcoming offseason. He’s controllable through the 2019 campaign and has been a solid contributor to the Rays since being acquired in the James Shields/Wade Davis/Wil Myers blockbuster (although, in retrospect, Odorizzi deserves fairly lofty billing when describing that deal as well).
Over the past two and a half seasons with the Rays, Odorizzi has turned in 461 1/3 innings of 3.78 ERA ball, averaging 8.5 strikeouts and 2.8 walks per nine innings pitched. While he’s certainly a fly-ball pitcher, his ground-ball rate has increased significantly over the life of his time with the Rays, and the uptick in grounders hasn’t come at the expense of his ability to miss bats. Odorizzi is throwing a career-high number of two-seam fastballs (25.3 percent, per PITCHf/x), and the resulting 39.2 percent ground-ball rate is a career best.
Injuries throughout the Texas rotation have led the club to explore multiple avenues to bolster its rotation. The Rangers are said to be interested on Odorizzi’s own teammate, Matt Moore, and the team was also connected to Twins right-hander Ervin Santana over the weekend. Currently, the Rangers are without Colby Lewis through late August, and Derek Holland is slated to be on the disabled list for a yet-undetermined duration. Yu Darvish, too, is on the shelf, and while he’s set to return in the near future, it’s tough to be 100 percent confident in the durability of a pitcher that had Tommy John surgery in 2015 and quickly returned to the DL with shoulder discomfort.
The Rays, currently 14 games below .500 and in last place in the American League East, have reportedly considered parting with some of their starting pitchers, with Odorizzi, Moore, Drew Smyly and Erasmo Ramirez among the most logical pieces to be dealt. Chris Archer figures to draw plenty of interest as well, though it’s hard to see Tampa Bay selling low on its ace when he has so much club control remaining, and top prospect Blake Snell isn’t likely to be going anywhere just months after his big league debut. Alex Cobb could potentially be a trade candidate in August once he’s back from Tommy John surgery, though the offseason strikes me as a better time to move him, as he won’t have much time to reestablish himself prior to Aug. 31.
Archer and (Cobb healthy) would be only Rays pitchers that should draw a big price, Odorizzi has been extremely protected he rarely pitches past the 5th inning, I think the Rays have also hurt his value in doing that, maybe he can be a pitcher who goes deep into games since he is often pulled even when he is doing well. Hes pitched 7 innings a grand total of 13 times in his career 82 starts. The once through the Order pitchers are being way over valued it is a philosophy that can only work with extreme stress on your bullpen most bullpens wont hold up to multiple years of doing it hence the Rays bullpen implosion, and their starters being used more which they seemed to not be ready for as they have had a number of injuries and poor performance from the staff. The Rays staff was largely over achieving last year because of the way they were used, not just talent.
I don’t think Odorizzi is worth Gallo, Brinson, or Profar in any deal. Maybe they can get him for Cordell, Taveras and one other.
Well to be fair about your bullpen comment their bullpen stinks and that’s why it’s imploding. It doesn’t help that our pitchers only get through 5.
he’s gone 6+ innings in 28/45 starts over the last two years
He averages 5.8 innings a start which is below average or right at league average it was 6 innings a start in 2014, 5.8 innings a start in 2015, That is including bad teams, bad pitchers and 4’s and 5’s not good at all.
6+ in 28/45 isn’t bad. Also, just looking at IP is kinda cherry picking stats? He’s also been putting up above average numbers while pitching in the ALE, which notorious for soft offensive teams LOL…
He has not been good away from the one pitcher friendly stadium in the AL East though, He is pretty awful on the Road for his career. Hes a solid back of the rotation pitcher that is about it. He by no means does well in the AL East. The Yankees crush him, the Orioles crush him, the Red Sox crush him, the Blue Jays crush him in Toronto. Hes downright awful in all the Away games hes pitched int he AL East. The only AL East team he has really held in check in Trop is Toronto
He almost no hit the Yankees
The Yankees who were at the time one of the worst offenses in baseball and still are pretty terrible? Color me impressed Also counting almost no hitters in the 7th inning I guess the 7th inning is the new 9th.
I have a feeling the Astros might make a play for one of the Ray’s starters. They need pitching not just this year, but for the next few years if they want to win in their window. Having a young, cheap, and controlled pitcher is just what the Astros need.
I wonder if Tampa’s asking price will be tough for them to swallow though? They have a hole at the major league 1B level and I bet the rays would start the asking price at AJ Reed. I was thinking earlier this year that Houston would be a good spot for Pomeranz.
Yeah Pomeranz would be a good target for them. I think Reed and Bregman are close to untouchable. I think your right in saying Odorizzi would command the most (outside of Archer). But I could any of the other Ray’s starters being targets for the Astros.
Odorizzi is one I am comfortable dealing a big prospect to aquire. I think we will need to toss in a couple of mid-level and/or high upside young guys like Cordell mentioned above. It will be interesting to see which of our guys Tampa wants. I still think Gallo is as close to untouchable as a prospect can get, but Brinson is definitely an option.
I know he is still young and has upside if he is able to maintain an even below standard batting average in the majors, but I see a lot of risk in Gallo. I’d say at absolute best an Adam Dunn type who can field better (which itself has tons of value) but much more likely to be more Rob Deer like or far, far worse. That is a lot of risk that I would deal for safer options if the right package was offered for him.
The defense is key though. He’s no liability and could probably be a close to league average defender even if he moved to LF, mainly because he has a great arm. I think he will hit for more of an average than Dunn, but I would expect an average better than .250. Even at .235 a kid as strong as Joey is going to hit a ton of HRs.
I understand what you are saying (and I’m certainly NOT saying Gallo shouldn’t be some sort of success in the bigs) but there is absolutely no basis to say that Gallo should hit better than Dunn did for average.
Dunn had a career minor league average of .304 and was promoted at an even younger age than Gallo (so Dunn was younger at each level comparatively). Gallo has a current career minor league average of only .256 AND that is despite having played in notoriously hitter friendly leagues such as the PCL and the Texas league.
Look I’m certainly not a fortune teller but from looking at the facts available to me then I certainly see no logical reason to expect that Gallo will ever be able to consistently hit for the average Dunn did (who only had a career average of .237!).
I do agree that his defense could be key (which was why I mentioned it in my first post in this thread). At least for the first part of his career he should be a better defender than Dunn was (who in his early 20’s was decent, strong armed and even somewhat speedy – stealing 19 bases one year). Dunn when he got into his late 20’s and early 30’s got worse and worse quickly.
BTW I am definitely not even weighing in on the conversation of which pitcher (or other resource) I’d deal Gallo for. All I’m saying is that I see a lot of risk (more than I’d be comfortable with) in Gallo and if I were a GM i’d deal him if I got a package of players (or one even) that I felt was of good talent level and of a more acceptable risk level. Gallo definitely would NOT be in my untouchable prospect list.
Haha I think we are arguing the same point. I meant to say Joey probably will not hit over .250. I didn’t actually realize that Dunn’s career average was .237. I guess I always associate Dunn with a .214 with 40+ home runs. Yes Gallo is probably a similar player, but I bet he is considered a better defender than Adam was at this point in his career.
Yeah I understood you to say that you’d expect an average better than .250 ( you may have meant to say that you WOULDN’T expect an average better than)
Actually (based on my memory since I haven’t looked up Dunn’s defensive stats) i recall Dunn as being about an average fielder at worst when he first came up. He certainly exhibited a decent arm (that I recall but it was long ago and I might be mistakenly attributing that to another Reds young outfielder from that time period. My memory isn’t exactly perfect on things from so long ago lol. I do know that as he matured he most definitely became worse until every fly ball was an adventure.
Both Dunn and Gallo are similar size (6’6″ compared to 6’5″ and 285, final listed playing weight, compared to listed 235 pounds for Gallo). I’m not sure what Dunn’s listed size was when he was 22 but I’d expect it to be similar to Gallo’s weight wise at least). It certainly isn’t out of the range of possibilities that as Gallo matures he gains weight.
I personally don’t see Gallo sticking at thirdbase defensively so that leaves the outfield, most likely LF,, DH and first. Again he definitely has value, but I personally see the best case scenario as Dunn (which is a solid player for sure, but with flaws). I see that he could be far far worse too. If i get the right return then I deal him in a heartbeat.
The Astros have been burned on their last three significant trades. Caution might settle in on big deals.
The Astros burned themselves on the Phillies trade!!! No GM in there right mind gives up that many top prospects for One RP!!!!!!
Every time I look back at the Gomez/Fiers for Santana, Phillips and others trade I just can’t help but scratch my head. Don’t know what the Astros were thinking giving up prospects of that caliber for a decent/pretty good pitcher and an outfielder in the midst of a down year. I feel like they could’ve gotten a lot more for those guys, mainly for Phillips.
The Astros need pitching. And the market this year is awful. Which means a trade has to be order. If the Astros want any chance at winning a World Series in the next couple of years, they need some young, controlled, pitching that can help the staff.
Cobb is risky, damaged goods,wouldn’t touch him
Not so sure about this…see: Jose Fernandez. Cobb was right there at the top tier of MLB starters prior to the injury. IMO, most likely outcome would be a reunion with Maddon in Chicago if he shows he’s healthy and if he is dealt anywhere at all this year. That said, I’d prefer the Rays hold onto him unless the return is irresistible. A healthy rotation of some/all of Cobb, Archer, Moore, Odor, Smyly, Snell, Ramirez, Andriese, Faria, Shultz would be beyond solid next year. However, it is pretty obvious the Rays have ridiculous starting pitching depth and some will be traded for bats/pen arms.
So Rangers, you always would rather have Cobb, Moore ,Ordorizzi ,, and hill rather then Tehran ! Ok you rather have pitcher with history or arm issues and one year wonders. Then a guy who is under team friendly contract for next 4 years who has no history of arm issues and who is 25 ok . That is ace . Take time compare is number again other ace at same development time. 4th complete seasons who is also only 25 .
I have no idea what you’re jabbering about… something about Tehran? The asking price is too high on Tehran I think. Texas has an awesome GM. He’s calculated and smart he will not overpay for Tehran I promise you that.
First, since when does “a guy who is under team friendly contract for next 4 years who has no history of arm issues and who is 25” qualify you as an “Ace”. By that standard, 90% of the league is an ace because every pitcher that comes up from the minors is under team control, hasn’t likely had arm issues, and is under 25, No, “Ace” status comes from dominance at the Major League level, and just because you are the best pitcher on your team (Teheran) does not make you ace.
Second. Teheran is not ace, but the Braves want an Ace return for him. They want MORE than what they got for Miller (which they should), but the problem is that they got way more for Miller than they should have. They want to get a better return than they got from the DBacks, and no one will give it to them.
So since Cobb, Moore ,Ordorizzi are all on relatively the same level in terms of skill, the Rays aren’t demanding as much as the Braves would. Also, The Rays have Archer and Snell to rely on….the Braves are relying on Teheran to be their guy going forward. The Rays can be more realistic on a return and pulling the trigger than the Braves, thus making those 3 more tradeable.
You’re likely gonna get more value from the other guys solely because you don’t have to give up so much. And serious question, if you believe Teheran is such an ace and not just on a extended hot streak, why do you want him traded so bad?
I don’t want the brave to trade him. It just good business the Braves need outfield help, and 3b c to build for future . And when you ad fact Braves have 30 great young starting arm coming up near future . Plus brave can get a lot more for guy who is known the hole bunch of guys that at this point are still unknown . Plus fact he is best pitch on the marked now and this off season so why not try to get the piece you need to fill the hole you have next season and come 2018 when Braves are ready to win they have the piece to win and they don’t have go spend money on free agents . And they can grow togther like the Braves did when they got good in late 80’s and early 90’s . Plus fact is other team like redsox , Pirates , Astros , and other have been scouting him . I hope this help you understand the facts why I think it good think to trade him.
Pitcher A is 25 years old and has 4.5 years of control at $39 million. Since 2014, he has 7.78 K/9, 2.49 BB/9 and 1.08 HR/9. He has a 3.28 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 3.96 xFIP and 6.0 fWAR while pitching in the NL East, where 1 team is in the top 20 of runs scored.
Pitcher B is 26 years old and has 3.5 years of control at est.$26 million. Since 2014, he has 8.63 K/9, 2.84 BB/9 and 1.11 HR/9. He has a 3.77 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 4.00 xFIP and 6.1 fWAR while pitching in the AL East, where 3 teams are in the top 5 of runs scored.
You and many other Braves fans think pitcher A is worth a top 5 overall prospect, 1-2 more top 25 prospects, plus others. What then do you think pitcher B is worth in a trade?
I didn’t check fWar but I did check bWar and where there is a difference between the numbers you posted.
Player A had a 8.8 bWar compared to player B having a 6.3 bWar.
Player A also has thrown over a 185 innings on three occasions while Player B has never thrown over 169.1.
Look I’m NOT saying that player A or B is worth X amount, only that different numbers paint different pictures. The truth be told both pitchers have their own benefits and question marks. In the end I’m sure their respective GM’s will decide for themselves the worth of their resources.
I would not include Profar in any trade for any TB pitcher. As valuable a chip as Gallo, Brinson or anyone else might be, Profar is just too good to move unless it’s a top-of-the-rotation starter with controllable years remaining. Profar’s skill set is much harder to replace, and young, middle infielders with his upside are rare. TBay, like others, will certainly ask for him, but Profar should be virtually untouchable. And, he creates a lot of options for JD should Elvis become a trade piece at some point. TB is only trading pitching because they have a lot of it. So how about Fielder & a prospect for Moore or Odorizzi?
I will guarantee that Fielder will not be the centerpiece of any trade involving the Rays and starting pitching. The only way he would be involved as a secondary piece would be if the Rangers were also covering his full salary.
You bring last two years because that all you have how about the
Sat 4 complete seasons . And hole k/9 is false state try stike out per game a avenge . Com pare last 4 years .obp. Hits per game avg . Batting avg against . If win /lose record over last 4 years . Al east is over rated . If the American League teams had to play with out Dh . And they had play real base ball you see how great your so called great hitters would look like 15 games year is not 162. And you have have your pitchers hit.plus when you add the fact that most of the national league ball parks are not fan fest. They play in real ball parks.
I’m not sure what you’re saying, but it sounds like you are trying to say that if NL teams played with DHs, they would score more runs. I agree with that. That is why pitchers who don’t have to face a DH have an advantage in stats like ERA. It also sounds like you are saying that the AL East plays in more hitter friendly ball parks than the NL East. Again, I agree with you and why pitchers in the NL East are again at an advantage in stats like ERA. You are also right that I started with 2014. That is because 2014 was the first full season for pitcher B. That also works out well since it gives us a relatively large and recent sample. If you don’t like K/9 or BB/9, here are their K% and BB%, which is based on total PA.
SP A has 21.3 K%, 6.8 BB% and 14.5 K-BB%. He also has 86 ERA-, 104 FIP- and 103 xFIP-.
SP B has 22.9 K%, 7.9 BB% and 15.4 K-BB%. He also has 98 ERA-, 97 FIP- and 98 xFIP-.
Again, I’m not claiming one is better than the other. All I’m asking is if SP A is an ace in your mind and worth 3 of the top 25-30 prospects in baseball, plus other good ones, what is pitcher B worth in your mind?
What you also not getting . Which was I was trying to get at Tehran has better track record then ordorizzi . And when it come to Cobb and Moore they have history of arm problems.
What was also talk about not that no had dh . What was getting was if All had to go back to real baseball and all had to have there pitcher hit . You see the all numbers come back to the same . When it gets to the ball parks . Because al east is bunch of small ball parks hit lets there hitter look better then they are. If they had to play in real ball parks there number would look the same. Look at what happen to price so fare this season in fenway being his home ball park. When he played in the only real ball park in Tampa ( though that not great one it still more real one then he others) his number where a lot better. So all east is little inflated . Good pitcher though can learn to over come that . Which I believe price will once he get past this year . Now when it come to Tehran he is ace . This fact that you all think he can’t strike batter out . Like I’ve posted before he avg. 5.6 strike outs per game. Which is the real stat not per 9 ing. Like I said before Braves don’t want there pitcher to try to strike people out . Because that drives pitch counts up. Now I believe if they did you see his strike out go to around 8 to 8.5 strike outs per game. Which I believe you all see that ace ace. But they don’t want that so that why his strike out look less then other ace pitchers also . If you had look at past post where I
I hope in 2 years when Teheran becomes the latest Jair Jurrjens for Atlanta you print out every post you have made calling him “Ace” (when in actuality you mean true #1 because every team has an Ace.) and make a video of you eating every last one of those words. Then post the link on here. You can continue to try and make the world believe Teheran is equal to Martinez, Maddux , and Ryan. THAT DOES NOT MAKE IT TRUE!! The fact that you want him traded so badly shows that you know next year when his velocity finally dips to under 90 mph he will be a junk baller. You are a fool and need to stop assuming others are more foolish than you.
Love the comment about Jair Jurrjens!! I couldn’t believe he went with a comparison of Martinez. I was definitely waiting for the comparison to Glavine, Maddux and Smoltz. The only thing Teheran has in common with those guys is that they played for the Braves as well. And if you thought I was selling Moore short I like Moore and honestly don’t want to see him traded but I figured the value might be as much for Odorizzi bc of team control for an extra 2 more years. I personally want them to trade Archer bc I think his value is really high and we aren’t close enough to compete in the next 2 years IMO. Plus if it involves the Rangers I think Archer would be the only guy who could get Profar away from Texas.
I compared Tehran to Pedro Martinez and Johnny Cueto you would see that he compares very favorably to both. As all three are around he same height and are Latin pitchers
To be honest guys and I’m not saying this bc I’m excited about dealing any of these pitchers but you guys have a legitimate shot at winning the AL and you guys seem too worried about giving up a prospect. I’m not saying you should give up 3-4 for Teheran but you guys have a chance to acquire a legit SP no matter which one it is that lets face it is better than every pitcher on you team not named
Hamels or maybe Perez. The asking price for a guy like Andrew Miller from NY is Kyle Schwarber which is laughable but when you put it those terms I would trade any of those prospects to add one of the Rays. As is right now you will not beat Cleveland bc you don’t have enough pitching.
Teheran isn’t even close to an ace. I don’t know what you are watching or what you want him to be but he isn’t an ace. I would rather have Archer than Teheran. Is Teheran better than Moore or Odorizzi? Yes but he isn’t 2 extra top prospects better. As for Cobb I would take him over every single one of the pitchers mentioned. I’m just not sure he would be the best one to trade for as a contending team bc of the hiccups that come following TJ surgery but no question he is the best pitcher out of the 5 mentioned.
I think you are selling Moore short a little bit. The further he gets from his surgery days the more he is going to resemble his old self. There is a reason more teams are linked to him than Odorizzi and Teheran combined.
I think my proble with Moore us that he is coming back from arm issues. We already have Darvish and his struggles so I think we are looking for stability, even if it doesn’t come with top of the rotation stuff (i.e., the interest in E. Santana).
I can understand the Moore concerns but he is 2 years removed from TJ not 1 year like Darvish. He went through the same thing that Darvish is going through now but he went through it last year. He is actually pretty much back to pre-TJ. As for one of your earlier posts we probably won’t shoot for Reed of we dealt a pitcher to the Astros and we do have Morrison for another year if we tender him but we also have Shafer down in Durham who is our most MLB ready prospect so I would assume we would be searching for C prospects, P prospects or OF prospects is deals for our SPs Or MIddle Infield bc we like to stockpile them but can’t manage to develop any of them!!
So does a package headed by Ryan Cordell (OF) and Jose Trevino (C) get me Odorizzi? if you can’t tell that is who I want my guys to go get haha. Moore is a good player but if he really is back he requires Brinson to get right? I want Brinson in Center next year because Desmond will not resign with us.