Current estimates on the 2017 qualifying offer have it priced at $16.7MM, according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (Twitter link). That would represent a year-over-year rise of $900K.
That’s a rather standard increase for the qualifying offer, which is determined by averaging the league’s 125 contracts with the highest mean salaries. It sat at $15.8MM for the current year, after rising from $15.3MM in 2015, $14.1MM in 2014, and $13.3MM in the inaugural year of 2013.
Teams can offer their departing free agents a one-year deal, at the established price tag, within five days of the conclusion of the World Series. Over the next seven days, players who receive the offer are allowed to talk with other teams and decide whether to take the single-season pact. If they reject it, then draft implications attach: their former team stands to gain a compensation pick in the following year’s draft, while a new signing team must give up their highest non-protected draft choice.
The real question with the qualifying offer, though isn’t so much its specific price tag as it is the underlying rules. With a new collective bargaining agreement being negotiated at present, many have suggested that it’s one of the most important issues that is — or, at least, could be — on the table for change. Even if something gets done, though, it presumably wouldn’t go into effect for the coming offseason.
It’s not yet clear whether there’s any realistic possibility of modifications to a system that has had a notable dampening effect on the market experiences of numerous mid-level free agents in recent years. Players entering the market after declining the one-year qualifying offer come with the added cost of draft compensation. That has arguably forced certain good but not great players — those who have the toughest decisions to decline the QO — to shoulder an out-of-proportion piece of the dampening effect that the system imposes on player salaries.
Notably, this last offseason was the first in which any player accepted a qualifying offer — thus taking a one-year deal (admittedly, at a nice price) rather than rolling the dice on a stalled market situation. Matt Wieters of the Orioles, Brett Anderson of the Dodgers, and Colby Rasmus of the Astros all took the deal. The fact that some players have now elected to take the big one-year payday and re-enter the market could conceivably make teams think twice about slapping the offer on marginal candidates.
For those who aren’t familiar with the qualifying offer system, you can check out this old-but-good overview and read up on why “avoiding the qualifying offer” is so important for a free agent’s value.
“Brett Anderson of the Rockies”…. if only. – Dodgers fans
Ha whoops.
Looks like more players will accept this off season.
I bet both the Mets and Murphy wish he would have excepted his QO last year. The Mets would have gotten him for at least this probable MVP year he’s having this year, and Murphy could get at least 5yr $125 mill contract next year. It’s pretty amazing that they couldn’t recognize his late season and playoff improvement was the real thing and not fool’s gold. He wanted to stay a Met too.
If Murphy really wanted to stay a Met, he would have accepted the QO. He did not so……..must not have wanted to stay that much.
The Mets might wish he would have accepted, but I doubt Murphy does.
It should be interesting to see what happens. I would expect a rather steep decline on offers going forward. Which again will hurt the small market teams that cant compete in free agency
This year will presumably have fewer QO’s by raw numbers because it’s a notoriously weak FA class, but I think teams will still QO a lot of the players on the bubble of accepting it..
Because it’s a weak FA class, that also means less other places for teams to spend their money this year. And teams may logically expect a lot of on the bubble players to turn down the QO because the lack of good FA’s means that it’s a seller’s market for the ones who are there.
I agree with a combo of what g55s and baseball10 both said. Will be fewer offers made because many of these guys are not worth huge money. More of those that get offered will accept based on what has happened the last few years.
Their might be more offers than you think. Yes the QO value is up, but less than $1 mill. Given what Greinke and some of the other FA were given last year, the FA contract could go up even more by comparison.
Can a player have a QO extended to him two years in a row (i.e. can the Orioles extend Wieters one again this year)?
My guess is Yes.
Yes then can
Can a player have a QO extended to him two years in a row?
Looks like Michael Saunders has played himself into a QO this year for Toronto. I wonder if he would be a player that would accept it?
I was just about to post about Saunders. I think he accepts. The QO attached to him will hurt his market in free agency, and the Jays would be wise to offer him with what they will potentially lose in free agency.
What about Justin Turner?
Turner should be a no-brainer QO. Three straight years of being over a 3 WAR player.. He’s 31, which is post-peak but not so old that you’d expect him to crater over the next 2-3 years.
I bet both Murphy and the Mets wish he had accepted his QO last year. The Mets would have at least had him for this year and the likely MVP he should win. If he was a FA again next year he’d be in line for at least 5 yr $125 range. The fact that he wanted to stay a Met and he wound up signing with their biggest rivals is doubly galling. He should wind up with a WAR of at least 5 this year. That’s a 10 game difference between what the Mets lost and the Nats gain. Walker is slumping and will be lucky if he has a WAR in 1-2 range. Alderson wasn’t even going to extend him a QO until that super human post season. It’s amazing that these so called talent evaluators can’t tell fool’s gold from the real thing sometimes, even if it’s sitting right under their very noses.
That should be 5yr $125 mill, obviously.
If Aroldis Chapman is presumed to get 4 yrs and $60mil in the off season, maybe the Cubs extend him a qualifying offer at season’s end. Wouldn’t he be likely to turn that down and get them a draft pick? Am I right in believing that he is eligible because he began the season with the Yankees?
My bad. I guess he would have had to start the season with the Cubs. I guess I was just hoping to squeeze more value out of the deal they just made.
Correct. A player has to be with the team all year. It’s why players like Cespedes and Price didn’t get it last year.
Sorry for the repeat, my first one didn’t come up fight away.
Rediculous when do fans get considered the money is out of control and mlb needs to reign this insanity in.
Haha. That’s cute. The fans have never been considered and salaries have nothing to do with that.