When discussing top prospect trade chips, it’s important to note the difference between those who simply have the most value versus those who are most likely to be traded due to an abundance of organizational depth or talent ahead of them at the Major League level.
For example, Red Sox infield prospect Yoan Moncada might have more value than any prospect in baseball. His Double-A teammate, Andrew Benintendi, isn’t far behind. Yet, neither is on this list. Both have a pretty clear path to the MLB roster with their current organization in the very near future—Moncada as the starting third baseman and Benintendi in left field—which makes that the more likely scenario. Of course, if the Red Sox really wanted to make a splash and acquire an impact player signed beyond 2016—think Chris Sale—they’d have to be willing to part with at least one of them.
The players listed below might not be completely blocked from a starting job in the big leagues, as was the case with the recently-traded Dan Vogelbach, but some of them have obstacles for at least the next couple of seasons. Likewise, the players’ respective organizations are in a position to take the risk of a trade, because of sufficient depth, in order to improve their chances to win a championship in 2016.
1. Austin Meadows, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Even for Austin Meadows, who has quickly become one of the best outfield prospects in the game, there isn’t a spot available in the Pirates’ outfield for the foreseeable future with Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco locked up to long-term deals and Andrew McCutchen signed through 2017 with a very team-friendly club option for 2018.
After missing time with an orbital fracture suffered during Spring Training, Meadows posted an impressive .976 OPS with 16 doubles, eight triples, six homers and nine stolen bases in only 45 Double-A games. He had a 24-game hitting streak when he was promoted to Triple-A Indianapolis on June 18th. If not for a hamstring injury that’s sidelined him for the entire month of July and the fact that he’s blocked by three of the best outfielders in baseball, there would be plenty of buzz surrounding his potential call-up for the stretch run.
The Pirates have been hesitant to trade away any of their top prospects in recent years. But with the 21-year-old Meadows capable of contributing at the Major League level no later than mid-2017, it could finally be the right time to cash in on one of their biggest chips.
2. Joey Gallo, 3B, Texas Rangers
When the Rangers gave Adrian Beltre a two-year contract extension through the 2018 season, it was clear that Joey Gallo wouldn’t be their starting third baseman anytime soon. His future big league position, at least with the Rangers, appeared to be as a first baseman or designated hitter. This meant that he’d have to leapfrog either Mitch Moreland, who had an .812 OPS in 2015, or Prince Fielder, who the Rangers are paying $18MM per season through 2020.
At this point of the season, it appears that this possibility is less likely than anticipated. Jurickson Profar’s return to health, position versatility and immense talent has resulted in another roadblock for Gallo. The former top prospect in baseball, Profar had worked his way into the mix as a utilityman with semi-regular playing time around the infield and at the designated hitter spot. With Fielder out indefinitely with a neck injury, Profar will take his at-bats while Moreland is still in Gallo’s way. Before you decide that Moreland should be benched in favor of Gallo, I should let you know that he has an OPS over .900 with seven homers since early June.
With Fielder facing an uncertain future if he has to undergo what would be his second surgery in three seasons for a herniated disc in his neck and Moreland eligible for free agency after the season, Gallo’s value to the Rangers is still high. But with first base prospect Ronald Guzman having a terrific season in Double-A, the Rangers could still be comfortable enough to deal the 22-year-old Gallo for an impact player who can help the 2016 team hold off the talented Astros for the AL West crown.
3. Clint Frazier, OF, Cleveland Indians
Lonnie Chisenhall and Rajai Davis, who have been getting most of the starts in the corner outfield spots for the division-leading Indians, aren’t major roadblocks for a guy with Clint Frazier’s skill set. But it’s not that difficult to picture an outfield of Michael Brantley, Tyler Naquin and Chisenhall in 2017 with top prospect Bradley Zimmer pushing for playing time and super-utilityman Jose Ramirez also in the mix. Same for 2018, which would be Brantley’s last year under contract by virtue of an affordable $11MM club option.
It’s also easy to make a case for Brantley-Zimmer-Frazier being the most talented outfield combination in the organization. Why break that up? Because this might be the best Indians roster since the mid-to-late 90’s. Their starting pitching is championship-caliber. The bullpen, however, is suspect and they can also use a catcher. If they have a chance to significantly upgrade both areas in the same deal—Jonathan Lucroy, Jeremy Jeffress and Will Smith are said to be available—Frazier is the kind of prospect that can make that deal happen.
4. Francis Martes, SP, Houston Astros
I’m only going to write this one time, although it does apply to all three pitchers on this list: You can never have enough starting pitching! However, young starting pitchers with six years of team control have a ton of trade value, especially because the “sellers” typically don’t have nearly enough of it.
With Doug Fister likely to depart as a free agent after the season, the Astros have several good internal candidates to replace him in 2017. Joe Musgrove, Michael Feliz, David Paulino, Francis Martes and Brady Rodgers could all be in the mix. Those are all very good pitching prospects. All will be in the Major Leagues someday—Feliz is already there and has pitched very well out of the Houston bullpen—but not all will break into the Major Leagues with the Astros.
Aside from Rodgers, who profiles as a back-of-the-rotation starter, all of the aforementioned pitchers have at least mid-rotation potential. Because Martes has the highest ceiling—he’s holding his own in Double-A as a 20-year old (4.08 ERA, 81.2 IP, 75 H, 37 BB, 80 K)—he’d probably net them the biggest return in a deal.
5. Gleyber Torres, SS, Chicago Cubs
The Cubs’ position players aren’t just talented. They’re also versatile, which has allowed them to work some younger hitters into the mix who would otherwise be blocked if not for their ability to play multiple positions. Kris Bryant and Ben Zobrist, All-Stars at their regular spots, have also helped the cause with their ability to play several positions. Still, this is a roster that presents very little opportunity for an infielder hoping to break in the Major Leagues anytime over the next few years. That wouldn’t normally apply to a 19-year-old, but Gleyber Torres is on a faster track than most.
Torres is thriving in High-A with a .791 OPS and 18 stolen bases. Keep in mind that he started the year off with only six hits in his first 53 at-bats and has been one of the best players in the league since.
After acquiring Mike Montgomery to fill their need for a power lefty out of the bullpen, the Cubs might not need much more. But if they decide to do something big this month or in the offseason, Torres would be a nice centerpiece for any deal that would bring back an impact player.
6. Cody Bellinger, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers
It wouldn’t be unrealistic for first base prospect Cody Bellinger to finish off the 2016 season in Double-A, where he currently has a .778 OPS and 11 homers, play in Triple-A for at least the majority of 2017 and break into the Major Leagues as a 22-year-old in 2018. He could play in the outfield as a rookie—he’s spent time at all three outfield spots this season, but has Gold Glove potential as a first baseman—before taking over as Adrian Gonzalez’s successor the following season.
As easy as it is for me to look ahead to see how and when Bellinger fits in with the Dodgers, teams with close to a $250MM payroll are always in “win-now” mode. And the “win-now” Dodgers are also in serious need of some help with best pitcher on the planet Clayton Kershaw out indefinitely with a back injury. That means that Bellinger, who shot up the prospect ranking lists after hitting 30 homers and 33 doubles in his age-19 season with High-A Rancho Cucamonga, and any Minor Leaguer who isn’t expected to help in 2016 could very well be used as a trade chip.
7. Reynaldo Lopez, SP, Washington Nationals
Reynaldo Lopez’s big league audition as a starting pitcher did not go well, and that shouldn’t come as a total shock. He’s not ready to be a successful Major League starter. As a reliever in shorter stints, however, many believe that the 22-year-old can help the Nats right now. In fact, it’s more realistic to think he’ll be the team’s future closer rather than a starter in a rotation that doesn’t have a spot for him anytime soon.
Even if the Nats decline Gio Gonzalez’s $12MM club option for 2017, top prospect Lucas Giolito is next in line for a spot and there is still plenty of depth behind him, with Erick Fedde, A.J. Cole and Austin Voth each still in the mix as well. Lopez’s chances to break into the Major Leagues as a starting pitcher are better elsewhere, and a team that believes he can be a part of its rotation in the near future will place a high value on him in trade talks.
8. Tyler Beede, SP, San Francisco Giants
Since drafting and winning championships with first-rounders Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum, the Giants have been unable to produce another great homegrown pitching star. They might not need one in 2016, especially if Cain can finally remain healthy, but there are a few that could make a case for a spot in the 2017 rotation, including Tyler Beede, Clayton Blackburn and Adalberto Mejia.
But with only one expected opening—Jake Peavy will be a free agent after the season—the Giants find themselves in a position of strength with the ability to deal a young starting pitcher with upside in order to improve their chances of winning a fourth World Series title this decade. Beede, a former first-round pick out of Vanderbilt that could pitch near the top of a rotation, is the one that teams will be asking for the most during trade talks.
9. Amed Rosario, SS, New York Mets
The offseason signing of Asdrubal Cabrera, the mid-season return of Jose Reyes and a second consecutive strong season in the upper minors from former first-round pick Gavin Cecchini hasn’t overshadowed the season that shortstop prospect Amed Rosario is having. In 90 games between Double-A Binghamton and High-A St. Lucie, the 20-year-old has put together a .323/.374/.466 slash line.
If the Mets, who are only 1.5 games out in the Wild Card race, don’t believe that they can overcome their injury woes and make another run similar to 2015, they won’t make any major trades before the Aug.1 non-waiver deadline. But if that’s not the case and they’re not ready to give up on their playoff hopes, they’ll need to add some talent to the roster. Rosario will net the best return out of any of their minor league assets.
Super smart to put that clarification at the beginning there.
it’s a little bit presumptuous to say that there is only 1 slot in the near future in the giants rotation – cain has been shaky and if you look 2 years out cueto can opt out so in 2 years it could be 3 slots – that being said beede and meija are dealable with guys like bickford behind them and blackburn ahead –
We have the prospects to trade for Sale! I would love Sale, Darvish, Hamels!
That would make Texas the instant favorite to make the World Series glad that it does not appear that Chicago is trading Sale at any price.
I doubt the rangers would give up Profar or Gallo for Sale.
????? A deal for Sale starts with BOTH of those guys…
Yeah
they do start with both, but I doubt they would deal both for sale, I think the white sox would prefer gallo.
Both of those guys wouldn’t get you Sale
Gallo + Tate and Brinson would get them sale or quintana
I’s sorry but no it would not get Sale
No way that gets Sale
I agree. It would start with both those two then more
Yeah we would. I’d do Gallo, Profar, Ortiz, Demeritte and 2 B-/C specs for Sale in a heartbeat. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rangers were the team that offered “a kings ransom.”
I think we as fans go through different periods of how we value prospects. There seems to be points in which all fans seem to value prospects highly, and then there are times when all fans value prospects less. And it seems to depend on your team too, teams with a track record of developing good MLB players (BOS, CHC, STL, PIT, SF, KC, NYM) to name a few, seem to over value their prospects in all of these fan commenting sections whereas fans of teams who struggle to develop their own homegrown guys of late (NYY, CHW) to name a couple seen to undervalue prospects. The truth of the matter is that we as fans are usually somewhere inbetween where the MLB is, and we should be able to understand from both perspectives, Red Sox fans are loath to give up Moncada and Bendetti, etc which is understandable with all the hype those guys get, and with their track record of developing quality MLB players from their prospects (JBJ, Betts, X-man, Dustin) to name a few, whereas the Yankees current best homegrown player is Betances… So yankees fans want those guys to feel confident in, which is why they’re thinking they’ll get a top 25 prospect for Chapman, when there’s about a 0% chance of that happening, book it.
Thanks for finally saying it
Andrew Miller brought back Eduardo Rodriguez, I think its fair to say Aroldis Chapman could bring back a similar-level prospect from a contender.
it is, but E-rod at the time was not a top 25 prospect at the time.
I will agree that it appears that teams with some success developing top prospects tend to value them highly.
I wonder though how much of that high evaluation is in a small way accredited to short memories on forgetting the disappointment of failures. Boston also has had it’s share of disappointment in the last few years. Guys like Middlebrooks, Dubront, Brentz, and even Swihart just to name a few didn’t live up to all the hype once lauded upon them.
I’m not saying that any of those names were as highly praised as Moncada or Benintendi, nor am I saying that they have been total zeroes nor have chances still to be decent. I’m only saying that sometimes the players advertised as being great don’t always live up to those high praises. When a team has a few fantastic successes, then it is easy to forget that disappointment which leads to some high valuations by fans.
Hey look, a voice of reason.
How about a deal involving Meadows and Gallo? Don’t know how the depth in Texas OF is but with Gallo at 3rd and Josh Bell at 1B that could be a nice middle of the order to go with Polanco, Marte and Cutch
Not a bad thought but prospect-for=prospect trades almost never happen. I can’t think of the last time I saw one. I think teams are just afraid of it looking bad if it doesn’t work out for them.
Lewis Brinson would project as our CF at some point assuming Desmond walks in FA which I think he will unfortunately
As a Pirates fan, would hate to miss out on Meadows. He extends the length of time that the Bucs can claim a top 3 outfield. Just my opinion but would rather have Meadows replacing McCutchen than Gallo.
Tend to agree. Trading 6+ years of Meadows because he might be blocked for 1 year doesn’t make a ton of sense. As for Gallo, he definitely has the higher ceiling but he seems more likely to be the next Alvarez.
I was thinking of the Gallo/Pedro thing myself. Have not seen him play but a quick look of the stats made me wonder if they would be similar.
As a Pirates fan, I drool at the idea of adding Gallo and his power to the lineup, but it would be tough to figure him in. Jung Ho and Bell will man the corners full-time next season, and honestly I’m not sure where Jung Ho would go if not at 3B. When he’s healthy, he’s shown he can be a very solid MLB 3B. Bell is going to be an instant star when eh comes up for good, which should be soon. Gallo would be a monster at PNC Park though, just can’t see the Bucs trading Meadows for him and for anyone at this point.
Pirates have no one the Rangers want or need.
Here’s the deal. Cleveland all in this year and overpay for Chapman and Beltran with Frazier, Clevinger, and another prospect going to NY. I’m a Yankees fan. Cashman, please sell. Please.
Cleveland is not in a one year window though. For the same price or a little more they could probably get Smith and Lucroy and still have both around to make a run again next year.
Agreed. Add Miller to the mix.
exactly
Anyone consider the fact that Cutch has lost it and may never get it back? How about the Pirates keep the kid with unlimited potential and years of team control, and trade the guy who’s making $15 million, hitting .240, and is on pace to strike out 175 times?
was talking to a Pirates fan who was saying much the same thing.
Have posted that sentiment here already. Cutch will be the one being traded. It is not a question as to if, it is a question as to when. I think next July will be the earliest and latest will be after the season. Will depend more on Meadows than it will be for McCutchen. Same thing for Jaso. He is signed but will be traded the moment they deem Bell’s defense will be good enough to play every day in the bigs.
Trade Mccutchen and promote Meadows. Cutch is actually in the negative WAR this year (-0.4) and would still bring a gigantic haul to a team with an outfield need for the next few years. Just a thought anyway.
I’m saying right now the angels will trade for McCutcheon in the off-season.
yet have nobody to trade for mccutchen
Horrible idea. Even if Meadows hits his ceiling, which is unlikely in his career and virtually impossible in 2016, it still isn’t as high as McCutchen. Yes McCutchen has had a rough year, but I don’t think I would call him a negative player no matter what WAR says. He always is a threat every time he comes to the plate. You aren’t getting a replacement player to create the energy and excitement when Cutch comes to the plate in a tie game. The Pirates have a chance at the WC and, if the Cubs don’t right their ship, even the NL Central. It’s not unheard of to make up 8.5 games in 2+ months.
Sorry dude, have to disagree with you. Meadows has just as high of a ceiling as Cutch did when he was a prospect. Cutch is starting his descent. He is the face of the franchise, but bucco fans know that he won’t be back when his contract is up, just like the Neil Walker situation. Pirate fans would be furious if Meadows is traded, because they realize that with a small market team, you can’t keep all your players. Cutch will be traded a year before his contract is up and Meadows is going to take over his spot. I do however believe Marte will be the center fielder with Meadows playing left
McCutchen will be traded but in the off season or this time next year. He is starting to decline and he will still bring back a higher return that Meadows will…Obviousely Ray Ray, you have not watched Andrew on a daily basis. He is still above average as a player but nowhere near where he was. Makes some miscues in the field that he did not use to and missing a lot of pitches this year at the plate. Have been following Meadows for 2 years. He will be a stud. As you say,he may not reach the level that Andrew reached at his peak but he will be better in the future than what Andrew will be. from this point on. Andrew will bring back more in a trade than Meadows would. Unless somebody really knocked Huntington’s socks off, Meadows stays put and comes up maybe during the stretch and latest next year mid season. Sadly, Andrew’s days will be numbered but he will not be worth a huge extension that he will get when he goes FA.. The longest Cutch will be with the Bucs after the end of the 2017 season. I thank Andrew for what he did and hope he gets very rich in his next deal after he brings the Bucs a bunch in return when he gets traded.
I dont see Texas trading Gallo unless they get a significant piece back long term.
Profar has been excellent this year but thats not enough to trade Gallo hoping Profar stays healthy.
If anything. They could shift andrus or profar to the outfield, move fielder to the DH, and put gallo at 1st. Just to create room for everyone
They could have desmond/ profar or adrus /mazara as the outfield with beltre, andrus or profar, odor, gallo as the infield.
I dont see them keeping mooreland. Dudes got a wRC of 86 this season batting .235/.300/.433 in a very hitter friendly park.
Andrus is nothing more than an average SS…he would not ever agree to go to the OF. Profar, on the other hand, will play anywhere to get exposure to his athleticism.
With Lance Lynn returning to the St. Lours rotation in, 2017, Alexander Reyes would seem to fit the description.
Agreed. All 5 of the current starters are also under contract for 2016. With Weaver also pitching lights out in AA, you have to at least wonder if Reyes would be dangled if a big name were to come available.
Personally I say trade Gallo plus others for the best pitcher available. You can sign a Gallo style hitter in the off season. I can think of a few soon to be free agents that fit the Gallo style hitting. Lot of Homeruns and high strike outs. Edwin Encarnación, José Bautista, and Mark Trumbo all would fit the bill.
It could even be lower. I have heard some scout say he could end up as Mark Reynolds Part 2. Now Reynolds is a serviceable player and has had a solid career, but I wouldn’t trade a TOR starter for a young Reynolds led package. If they can get that for Gallo, they should try. If he turns out better than that, well sometimes it happens, but it’s better than not trying.
He could end up as Mark Reynolds or he could end up as Chris Davis. He probably hasn’t reached his potential yet so nobody knows.
Nobody knows what Gallo will end up being, but everybody knows he has a ton of power. Power is the toughest of the 5 tools to find. Cheap power is even tougher. You don’t just give it away for the best pitcher available. That’s how GM’s lose their jobs. Trading a young, cheap slugger, with enormous potential, and signing an aging, 15-20 mil a year veteran, for multiple years, is exactly what you Don’t Do.
Even for Chris Sale????
Yes for Chris Sale. I was assuming Chris Sale, Chris Archer types weren’t available. For a Sale you give up Gallo, Profar and more.
It’s easy to say that but you have to look at salary budget constraints as well. Gallo will make 500k league min but if we sign one of the players you mention we might not have enough money to keep Desmond or Darvish. So if you go through with your plan you’re still going to end up giving something away in the end
The Indians aren’t trading Clint Frazier for a middle reliever. It’s just not going to happen, for more reasons than I care to state.
No. But how about Lucroy?
only if it includes Smith, I’d prefer to trade zimmer
That might happen.
If Cutch was having a bit better year, i’d consider trading him can call up Meadows instead… IF the deal was decent. Similar to how McCluth was traded to make room for Cutch.
Duno if i would be able to pull the trigger though… Cutch seems great for the team and city.
Sadly he will be going. No way will the Pirates want to pay a huge contract with him heading into his mid 30’s He will be more valuable to the Pirates after next season as a trade piece than he would be as an extremely highly paid outfielder.
I think what people are forgetting is that the market will be set by a GM and that is what most likely will dictate the price in a trade. For ex. Boston over payed for Pomeranz. There is no debating this. But I think Dombrowski was smart bc he recognized a flaw in his team and decided to be the first one through the wall. It was high but imagine now what the price teams will be asking for thier rentals or pitchers with term left. It put sellers in the advantage and buyers in the disadvantage. The real question now is how close are you to a World Series? And are you going to go after the high end talent it takes to win or try and get by with second tier talent? If the Cubs win and Montgomery was the piece they needed then Theo will be looked at as a genius. But what will the reaction be when Team B gets Miller or Chapman and rides the strong bullpen to the world series like the Royals? My take is simple, don’t trash a GM for high asking prices. The market gets set and you either go for it or don’t. It’s just the price of winning. I applaude Dombrowski though for getting in first!
I disagree with Torres being a likely trade chip this summer. Since he’s years away, it makes more sense for the Cubs to trade prospects who are closer to the bigs and blocked (Canderlario for example). They should be trying to trade their prospects that are on their 40 man roster so they don’t lose significant talent from the rule 5 draft.
Also worth noting Josh Bell is still a better right fielder than he is a first baseman. That FO knows it’s a waste of value having him at first base. Just another reason Meadows could go. Mccutchen following.
Meadows isn’t going anywhere especially with cutch struggling and NH has shown he’s never really interested in trading top 5 prospects for deadline help