This represents the second iteration of MLBTR’s top 10 trade candidate series. We’ve already seen a name fly off the shelf, as last week’s fifth-ranked trade candidate — James Shields — was flipped from the Padres to the White Sox.
Remember, we’re not just ranking players by skill alone; we’re looking at overall asset value and trade likelihood. To assess trade value, we’re starting with overall on-field value — with a premium on an ability to make an impact in the current season — and then adjusting for contract and market factors. With contenders’ needs in relatively sharp focus, limitations such as future contract status, age, and niche role (platoon bats, relief-only pitchers) tend to have less of a drag on value — though obviously they still matter quite a bit. With regard to the likelihood of a swap, the focus is on potential selling teams’ motivation to deal, with contract status, near and long-term roster fit, and overall competitiveness all weighing heavily. Some teams simply aren’t in a position at present where it makes sense to include their top potential trade chips, but that will evolve over the coming weeks.
Without further ado, here’s this week’s list:
1. Jonathan Lucroy, C, Brewers — Lucroy holds the top spot again, and barring a surprise move up the charts, he could stay there until he’s traded. It probably makes sense for Milwaukee to let the market shake out a bit before a deal, though, as several clubs with plausible catching needs may wish to wait and see how injury and performance issues progress over the coming weeks. Plus, with a high-value asset, an unexpected injury can always have a huge impact.
2. Rich Hill, SP, Athletics — Hill is currently out with a groin strain, but hasn’t yet been put on the DL, and the hope is that he can take the ball on Friday. At this point, a minor non-arm injury isn’t enough to ding Hill’s interesting trade candidacy. But the 36-year-old has already recorded more major league innings this year (64) than he has in any season since 2007, and durability will be watched closely by suitors looking to gauge his value.
3. Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers — Speaking of injuries, that’s probably the biggest variable on the market for the veteran Milwaukee slugger. He’s missed nine of the club’s last 21 games, and the list of maladies seems only to grow. But Braun has been as good as ever when he has been on the field, so he continues to occupy a top spot.
4. Jay Bruce, OF, Reds — After two straight years with below-average offensive production, Bruce is mashing. Yet he finds himself rated at or just above replacement level by measure of WAR. The culprit? A precipitous dive in his defensive metrics. He’s tied for a league-worst -11 defensive runs saved and is the lowest-rated qualifying defender in baseball by measure of UZR. The struggles with the glove limit his value and his market, but he’s still a prime target for teams in search of offense.
5. Arodys Vizcaino, RP, Braves — The Viz Kid has been among the game’s top 15 relievers by most any measure, and he’s posted significant jumps in ground-ball rate (56.9%) and swinging-strike rate (17.2%) to support his improvement over an already-strong 2015 season. Vizcaino has three more years of arb control remaining and should remain quite affordable, even though his save accumulation will begin to boost his salaries. That makes him a future asset for Atlanta, but the bet here is that he’s the likeliest of the team’s controllable assets to be dealt this summer.
6. Danny Valencia, 3B, Athletics — Valencia continues to rake, and the A’s continue to scuffle, so he makes a big move into the top ten. Needless to say, the one-time journeyman doesn’t seem terribly likely to maintain his current .343/.387/.580 batting line — he’s carrying a .374 BABIP, for one thing — but it’s hard to ignore that the 31-year-old has hit at a .291/.336/.492 clip over nearly 1,000 plate appearances dating back to 2013. Though Valencia doesn’t grade out very well at third or on the bases, his overall value is boosted by the fact that he’s appeared in the corner outfield and even second base at the game’s highest level. Jed Lowrie is another second/third candidate to watch from Oakland.
7. Julio Teheran, SP, Braves — Every quality start Teheran turns in raises his appeal — along with Atlanta’s already-steep asking price. Teams will forgive his 1-6 record, of course, and they’ll be drawn to his 200-inning history and 2.92 ERA. On the other hand, the 25-year-old continues to outperform ERA estimators and isn’t elite in the strikeout or ground-ball departments. While Teheran may be available for the right offer, it remains tricky to see a deal coming together.
8. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Rockies — I’ve said before that I’m not convinced the Rockies will sell, let alone that they’ll move the second of their two former franchise faces. But with the team still producing middling results and new stars rising, perhaps the time for a CarGo swap is finally upon us. Since reeling off a five-game winning streak in mid-May, Colorado has gone 6-13 and currently sits eight games back of the Giants in the NL West. Gonzalez, meanwhile, is producing at a typically solid clip and would be one of the game’s bigger deadline chips. He’s still just 30 years of age, and while his injury history is troubling, he seems reasonably priced at $17MM this year and $20MM next.
9. Fernando Abad, RP, Twins — He’s still the best high-performing, obviously-available lefty out there, and he’d appeal to a wide variety of teams since he’s playing for a relative pittance. But Abad’s time on the top-ten list may not be long; even if he doesn’t follow Shields as an early trade piece, there are some other arms that may soon challenge. The Brewers’ Will Smith could warrant for a spot if he continues to pitch well upon his return, though he’s no certain trade piece since he’s only a Super Two. Keep an eye on Jake McGee of the Rockies; his velocity and swinging strike rates are off, and he’s not especially cheap, but his track record is intriguing. Oh, and I hear that the Yankees have a couple of guys — if they decide to sell. And that’s all before accounting for the right-handed relief contingent.
10. Melvin Upton, OF, Padres — The much-maligned elder Upton isn’t exactly living up to his old standards, but he’s running wild on the bases and playing quality defense while hitting enough to be a useful reserve outfielder for a contender. True, Jon Jay is a more valuable trade chip — he’s doing more at the plate, is much cheaper, and is a pure rental — and he’s the pick here of my colleague Steve Adams. But I’m going with Bossman Junior for now because the Friars have shown some real salary-shedding motivation of late — not just in moving Shields, but also in the very swap that brought Jay to San Diego (for Jedd Gyorko and a big chunk of his contract) and, to some extent, both the Craig Kimbrel deal and the trade that landed Drew Pomeranz (with over $5MM of salary going with the players that headed to the A’s). The time may be right to offload as much as possible of the Pads’ remaining commitment (he’s earning $15.45MM this year and $16.45MM next). On the topic of shedding salary, the Padres would probably love to shed Matt Kemp’s deal, but it’s tough to envision suitors lining up for a .249 OBP, even if his production has been on the upswing for 10 games or so.
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Falling Out:
Chris Carter, 1B, Brewers — He is now in an extended stretch of marginal hitting, which reduces the goodwill he built up early.
Trevor Plouffe, 3B, Twins — Plouffe continues to underwhelm, and the Twins’ trade intentions remain unclear despite their increasingly dire straits at the major league level.
Already Traded: James Shields (Padres to White Sox)
Just Missed:
Sonny Gray, Jed Lowrie, Ryan Madson & Sean Doolittle (Athletics) — We’ll see how Gray rebounds and how the A’s approach the deadline with respect to a core player who doesn’t need to be moved unless a great opportunity arises. All of these players come with future control, with high price tags likely being slapped onto Gray and Doolittle, especially.
Ender Inciarte (Braves) — Inciarte could have a future role in Atlanta and isn’t at peak value right now.
Jeremy Jeffress & Will Smith (Brewers) — Likewise, these two arms are affordable and controllable, so there’s no rush; but if the trade chatter picks up, and Smith proves he’s back, then both could move onto the board.
Jeremy Hellickson, David Hernandez, Andrew Bailey & Jeanmar Gomez (Phillies) — Philadelphia somewhat surprisingly still remains within striking distance of contention as of early June, but even that might not necessarily deter them from flipping Hellickson while his value is at a considerably higher point than it was when he was originally acquired. Hernandez is a one-year rental, and Gomez’s out-of-the-blue emergence as the team’s closer will balloon his arbitration salary, so perhaps the Phillies will look to sell high on him as well. Bailey hasn’t been healthy in years, but he’s whiffed 17 hitters in 17 2/3 innings this season, and is lined up to hit free agency this winter, so moving him certainly makes sense.
Brad Ziegler, Daniel Hudson, Tyler Clippard & Welington Castillo (Diamondbacks) — I’m bumping the fading D-Backs into the likely seller camp, but their intentions remain unclear and all of their most obvious potential chips come with some questions (both as to quality and the willingness of the team to move them).
Andrew Cashner, Derek Norris, Jon Jay & Fernando Rodney (Padres) — Cashner and Norris just haven’t performed thus far. Rodney has, at least in the earned run department (he hasn’t allowed one), but the K/BB ratio doesn’t suggest vintage Rodney and there’s some batted-ball luck (.167 BABIP-against). On the other hand, his swinging-strike rate has recovered to prime levels and his batted-ball profile (lots of soft contact and grounders) looks like it did in Rodney’s excellent 2012-13 seasons, so he’s certainly one to watch.
Zack Cozart (Reds) — Always a gifted defender, Cozart’s bat is on the rise again this year, but it remains to be seen how interested Cincinnati is in moving him and the demand side at shortstop remains unclear. Fellow infielders Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips both have no-trade rights and big contracts, so unless something changes they don’t seem likely to move.
Ervin Santana (Twins) — Santana is not so different from Shields at this stage of their respective careers, so he could rise with some improved results.
Injured: Tyson Ross (Padres), Josh Reddick (Athletics)
Not Yet Eligible: I’m still not quite willing to push the Rays, Yankees, or Angels into the selling ranks. All of these clubs still are holding out hopes of contention, and the latter two in particular will likely wait until the bitter end before making their best assets available.
Bit surprised that some of the Phillies relievers and Hellickson aren’t atleast mentioned.
Full disclosure: Their absence was a byproduct of some re-ordering/copy & paste maneuvering. They were supposed to be in there all along and have been added back to the pile. Thanks for pointing it out.
Welcome to 4th place white sox fans.
They were mentioned.
Love to see Toronto grab a guy like Abad. I doubt they’ll be much in the mood to empty the farm again for a top-line guy, but they clearly need another middle-inning bullpen arm. A lefty who can also get righties out would help if the price is right, and Abad shouldn’t require too much in return.
Cashner is a lot better than he has shown to be. Lots of pressure playing for the Padres. One run and you can get beat
Yeah, tons of pressure pitching for a last place team.
Don’t mind chester. Just throw some facts his way and he’ll disappear in the blink of an eye.
In 2015 Cashner led the league with 22 unearned runs to his name. You know runs that were able to score because teammates made errors? When the defense behind you is bad of course it puts more pressure on pitchers to get strike outs as balls in play are resulting in errors.
But dont let facts get in your way chester.
1st place last place these are competitors and want to go out and do their best.
Also chester, you do realize that baseball is a magical sport where individual performances get players paid even on bad teams. And when the team around you cant score runs and hurts your W-L record which can be used against you in arb and free agency then yeah there’s pressure.
Got it. Unearned runs is why he is striking out the fewest batters of his career. But wait wouldn’t he strike out more guys if he doesn’t trust his defense? Maybe it’s the fact he has lost velocity on his fastball and still throws it 70% of the time.
Are you and this Chester guy like best buddies? It seems like when one of you has something to say about someone else’s opinion the other one comes to back him up
This isn’t 1995. I highly doubt teams are looking at a pitchers w=l record when they sign free agents.
You know there are statistics that look at a pitcher’s individual influence on the game and attempt to isolate the defense around them for that exact reason, yes?
You mention facts, then you try to use them, and consistently get shut down because you are either wrong, or just using them in a manner that doesn’t support your argument. People choose not to respond to you because you’ve consistently shown a lack of properly supporting an argument, not because you are some master debater.
It’s the same guy with two different names. Not even two best buddies agree on everything like these two.
1. Given the immense amount of shifts in baseball pitchers typically pitch to induce players to hit into the shift now a days. With such a bad defense cashner pitched to get strike outs, not pitch to hit into the shift. Where you pitch to try and strike a guy out is different than where you pitch to get a hit into the shift. Varies from hitter to hitter but the spots arent the same.
2. His velocity is down this year, except, last year when he struggled with unearned runs his fastball velocity was the same as it was in 2014. At 94.9 mph. And his 2 seam went up from 93.7 to 94.6 from 2014 to 2015.
3. In 2014 Cashner threw his 2 seamer more than his fastball, but the difference was about 100 more 2 seamer then fastball. In 2015 he threw the fastball 400 more times than his 2 seamer. Same velocity on his fastball at 94.9mph in 2014 and 2015 but threw it 1200 times in 2015 vs. 598 in 2014. He had more games in 2015 but widely over used his fastball, despite it being the same velocity. Why was he using it more? Oh, pitching for strike outs rather then using the 2 seamer or change up to hit into shifts.
5. Strictly talking about 2014 and 2015. Cashner had to pitch to literally win games in 2015 with strike outs because unearned runs are still runs on the scoreboard.
He’s still out on the mound throwing 94 most all game long and think if he ever got to play for a team that wasn’t out of contention by opening day? He’d actually be a decent mid rotation pitcher.
He’s not Joe Kelly command, actually has some command and decent secondaries. Could be the sneak, pillow contract buy of the FA offseason..
Wow, all you need to do for bad pitchers on bad teams is put them on good teams to make them pitch well? Someone call the twins!
I honestly think some you do. it’s that extra bit of drive to go with the talent that some guys have.. Feel of adrenaline of being in games that mean something.. Having stadiums which are packed day in and out, screaming in the background for them, rather than 10k at the most with nothing but echoes of a few fans hollering in a stadium to cheer them on as some..Like Cashner has had while in SD..
I like SD ok.. Dick Enberg has been on of my favorite announcers for years. Sad to see he only does few games now, just think some guys, of which Cashner is one, could do better with that extra push. He’s got almost that John Lackey drive that think could go an extra mile with a perennial winner, or team that is generally competitive.
Why would he have pressure on a last place team who plays in a very pitcher friendly park
My point was that if you give up one run you are likely to get beat because your team cant score runs. I thought everybody would have gotten my point but you didnt.
If it was a valid point, maybe more people would have gotten it.
Because baseball puts such emphasis on the W-L stat so much that players can lose money in arb hearings cause of bad. W-L records. You look at Lance Lynn who’s making 7 mill this year on an extension and was 12-11 last year while shelby miller posted very similar numbers is making 4 mill coming off a 6-17 season. Had shelby miller had a good W-L he’d probably be higher in the pay scale.
Dude lance Lynn is a year ahead in arbitration, of course he makes more. He also strikes more guys out which plays a role in arb.
Well to slightly straighten this out, Lynn is in a 3 year $22M contract, his last year of arbitration he made just over half a million. So honestly Miller is being compensated better I arbitration, even with his piss poor W-L record last year with Atlanta, his ERA and strong first half performance helped his arbitration.
haha, i didn’t have to wait very long to see an instance of exactly what I was referring to above, bigh52334.
This is shelby Miller’s first year of arbitration. Last year would have been Lynn’s first if not for the extension. Its not arbitration when they were making near the minimum, they get an auto increase as stipulated in the cba.
Good call Theo, St. Louis bought out only Lynn’s arbitration years in his contract. Thanks for setting me straight on that one, my bad.
Doolittle’s arb years have already been covered by his 2014 extension, plus, I believe one free agent year and an option on a second year. They sort of cynically did that before offering him the closer’s role, but he’s responded by being injured most of the last two years.
I know. I am referring to the asking price in a trade.
Doolittle has responded this year to a whip under 1 and a ERA of 2.59. He will probably be back as the closer next year. Madson who could be flipped for a prospect. Gray will not be traded since the A’s do not have very much starting pitching ready and they would need to be offered a boat load of good prospects.
Always troubled by this concept of “peak value.” You never when the value of something has peaked until after it goes down, and even then, you could just as easily be selling right before the value goes back up again as before it continues down.
Villar (Brewers)? He has been on a roll and they have a ton of infield prospects in the wings. He has also balked at a position move.
They are keeping Villar.
Who are these ton of IF prospects in the wings? Arcia is obviously going to be the SS sooner than later, but what do they have after that? Rivera is a glove first light hitting utility player kind of guy. Lara, Diaz, and Gatewood are all at least 2-3 years away and those are the only IF even in their top 30 prospects. Also wondering where you heard that he balked at a position move. He has said that he would like to stay at SS, and of course he would, but I’ve seen nothing to say he wouldn’t move to 3B or 2B.
What about Jose Reyes?!
No chat today Steve
Fun fact on Derek Norris. He was horrifically bad in April, but since May 1, he’s been a bit better than league average offensively while continuing the positive trend in framing and other defensive value that he started in the second half of last year.
His season numbers are still ugly, but after a .156/.198/.247 April, it takes a while to come back.
If a club believes what they’ve seen over the last month is what they’re getting for the rest of the year, he’s a good buy (especially because his arb numbers will be held down in part by the brutal April they didn’t have to endure).
And anyone on the Angels.
Like the Padres….. Lots of pressure playing for the Angels…. “Not”!
There is pressure, but a different kind of pressure. Some players on losing teams must feel the pressure of staying in the league. Mediocre guys on playoff teams can get the reputation of being a winner and occupy a bench ahead of a similar guy on a losing team. Jonny Gomes comes to mind. He lasted 13 years in the league with a career total of 3.3 WAR. While other players that were arguably better were out of luck.
May as well put down ALL of the Chicago white sox, including Chris Sale. But whoever gets Sale has to take Ventura and K. Williams! After this week they’ll be a 4th place team again.
I can honestly see the Dodgers taking a look at Hellickson, Gomez, and Bailey. You would figure the FO is not willing to trade away their top top prospects (rightfully so) for this year. It just seems like there are a lot of ties involved. It would cost a lot but probably is line with what the FO is willing to part with. Although that’s contingent on the Phillies willing to sell.
Do you think that francouer or beckham (Braves) would have any semblance of trade value?
I would think so
A semblance? Sure. Not much more. Beckham, maybe, if he really keeps hitting, though he is on the dl.
Unless they get blown away with an offer I don’t see the Braves trading Viz.
Padres would probably take a couple of mid-level prospects for Jon Jay. A good versatile left handed OF
Perez was a potential top 5 pick before this. The slide could cost him well over a million dollars or more. Depending on the drug of abuse, I hope the Padres have the opportunity to give him a close look at pick 24.
A smart team will value Norris and know Padres are in a bit of a pickle to deal him. While I hate all beard schtick’s, Norris has started hitting for power of late, and his framing has been good since last year.
He’s not the same guy in Oakland as he isn’t platooning anymore and like all Padres hitters have stopped walking. But given the low bar for catcher offense (82 wRC+ per fangraphs) and the hard hit/statcast data suggesting Norris has been unlucky with BABIP, he clearly projects to be better than that and is cheap.
BTW trading Melvin makes a lot of sense for padres to open up spot for Renfroe next year and give Dickerson a shot who is an older guy raking in PCL this year. But I still have some doubts they will eat money needed to do it, he will be owed around 23 million left on deal at deadline which isn’t too bad tho.
How is Renfroe doing this year?
Renfroe is playing in an extreme hitter’s park, his numbers are a bit gaudy. Not drawing walks at all, which seems to be a problem system-wide with the Padres.
That’s always been a concern for Renfroe, right? Big power, big speed, questionable hit tool and approach. Hopefully he puts it together, those players are fun to watch.
I’d still keep Shields on this list. The Sox acquired him early enough that they could still re-trade him if they don’t get things moving in the right direction.
I’m not sure if the sox would trade him, but with their recent slide, that’s an interesting point.
What could the Yankees get for
Miller
Chapman
Beltran
Not all in one trade but??
I’m a huge Cashman fan as of late, but if he doesn’t trade at least two of those guys before the deadline I will start to d=change my thinking. Teams way overpay for closers so I can’t image he couldn’t get a good package that would outway the QO pick you’d get for Chapman. You’d probably get a great haul for Miller. As for Beltran, I can see a KC trade coming in the near future that should net a decent prospect or even a major league ready guy depending on how much $ cash might want to eat.
Ventura for Beltran?
The Braves, Reds, Padres and Phillies want to dump veterans and the A’s and Marlins are always looking to deal. This could be the year someone goes big for Joey Votto and Matt Kemp. Ricky Nolasco looks like a good target. Other than that, I see no other big news headlines.