Declaring their intentions to push for the postseason in 2016, the Marlins have struck a deal to acquire veteran right-hander Fernando Rodney from the Padres. Miami parted with interesting young righty Chris Paddack in the swap, which ESPN’s Keith Law first reported (Twitter links).
Rodney, 39, is in the midst of his latest rebound campaign, having posted a sparkling 0.31 ERA with 10.4 K/9, 3.8 BB/9 and a career-best 59 percent ground-ball rate in 28 2/3 innings as San Diego’s closer. He’s saved 17 games for the Friars, but he may be ticketed for setup duties with the Fish, as Miami’s A.J. Ramos has had a strong season of his own. The 29-year-old Ramos has posted a 1.74 ERA and averaged 11 strikeouts per nine innings, although he’s also seen his control abandon him somewhat in 2016, as he’s averaging a somewhat troublesome 5.2 walks per nine innings.
Miami started from behind in the bullpen this year when Carter Capps went down to Tommy John surgery and Kyle Barraclough failed to win a job out of camp. Things have ticked up, with David Phelps emerging as a quality option and Barraclough returning with his two-true-outcomes approach (over half of the batters he faces strike out or walk). But the Fish also saw Bryan Morris go down mid-season, taking another set-up man out of the picture, and the overall unit has suffered from a lack of depth.
Adding Rodney will not only infuse another high-octane arm at the back of the pen, but will increase the quality of the pitching appearing in other situations. That’s not to say that things are perfect now; in particular, adding a quality lefty would appear to make sense. And while the team is largely set on the offensive side of the fence, but has long been said to have interest in a starter or two.
[Related: Updated Marlins Depth Chart]
The Marlins typically operate with a notoriously slim payroll, but Rodney’s contract is affordable enough that virtually any club could’ve fit him onto its ledger. He’s earning a $1.6MM base salary this season, and his contract includes a club option for the 2017 campaign that comes with a $2MM buyout. The pact does contain incentives that could bring the value of both his 2016 salary and his 2017 option to $7MM, though a large portion of those incentives are tied to games finished.
Thus far, Rodney has locked in an additional $250K for completing 20 games, and he’d earn that same amount again upon reaching 30 games finished. Rodney would earn $500K for reaching 40 games finished and an additional $500K for every five games finished beyond that point through 65 games, but if he’s working in a setup capacity, his chances to close out games will naturally be limited. Rodney also earns $500K for appearing in his 40th, 50th and 60th games of the season.
All told, it seems likely to expect that Rodney will earn at least $2.85MM this season (20 games finished, plus appearing in at least 50 games), and the value of his conditional club option will increase to match that sum. Even if Rodney clears $3MM in 2016 earnings, that’d still be a more than reasonable price based on his 2016 output to date.
In order to gain the low cost and relatively high-upside reliever, Miami had to part with a fairly intriguing prospect. Paddack was just an eighth-round pick in the 2015 draft, but he has been nothing short of remarkable at the Class A level in 2016. Over 28 1/3 innings, he has allowed a ridiculous nine hits and carries a brilliant 0.95 ERA with a 48-to-2 K/BB ratio. MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis rate him the 17th-best prospect on an poorly-regarded Marlins farm — the same offseason ranking he received from Baseball America — but it seems fair to say that his star is on the rise.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
thebighurt619
So what are the padres getting back theoretically? Maybe someone like JT Riddle? He’s 24 and mlb ready according to mlb.com who’s got his eta as 2016 so could be up this year in september and next, idk if hes reached aaa yet.
Or maybe a couple guys a bit off like justin twine and michael mader plus others?
formerlyz
JT Riddle is a potential bench utility guy at best. They’re letting him play some SS, but he is more of a 3rd baseman that wont hit enough. Th Marlins best prospects are in the lower minor leagues, so a good A ball prospect could mean anything
User 4245925809
The ultimate jeckyl/hyde ever was one. Some people love this guy, others the opposite.
My question: If any team (hello yankees) thinks Chapman is worth a fortune for half a season? Why isn’t Rodney? Flip side.. Rodney can turn into a pumpkin overnight and stay that way for months on end and has done it several times over his long career.
Both Rodney and Chapman light up Radar guns. I remember Rodney flashing several 100’s last 2 seasons with the M’s and he still sits mid-upper 90’s. with a wipeout change.
Short of it? Team wants a closer for half a year? Rodney over Chapman purely for the cost and pretty much get same thing, just hope the pumpkin doesn’t show up.
billysbballz
Wait… Are you saying Rodney is Chapmans equal?
Because if your not you better clarify that comment because it sure looks as if your saying Rodney will put up same numbers and is Chapmans equal?
That comment is over the top silly. I’m not on here saying Chapmam deserves teams top three prospects like Brave fans with Teheran but cmon pal!
Brixton
Well I mean, Rodney is having a better season… and it’s really not close
animal_strength
What??? They both have an 0.8 WAR and Chapman has 8 less innings pitched.
Not to mention the history.. Rodney had a -0.7 WAR last season
Brixton
No one uses WAR for relievers. Rodney has a better ERA, a better FIP, better peripherals, and doesn’t have the baggage that Chapman has. Not to mention he doesn’t cost as much money.
History doesn’t mean much when you’re talking to rentals, especially when Rodney had one of the greatest relief seasons ever in the past.
yanks02026
So in a big game you’d rather have Rodney or chapman. LOL
davidcoonce74
Rodney is 8 years older than Chapman.
therealryan
I’m not sure what you’re looking at, but Chapman’s FIP is 0.40 runs better than Rodney’s and his xFIP is over a run better. Chapman is also striking out 3.5 more per nine and walking less than half as many, so I’m not sure how you can say Rodney has better peripherals either. Chapman also has a longer track record of being much more consistent and better than Rodney, so I would be careful putting too much stock in a luckier 28 inning sample.
joefriday1948
A real steal for the man of steel who has the feel for striking out the last man as a good deal
eggy
So what they are both rentals
eggy
Talking about the age
One Fan
Who cares about the past? Big deal. If Rodney and Chapman are on the same team who do you want with the game on the line? Chapman all day. If you want to say Rodney was great in some past seasons fine but he also sucked in some past season even last year. When has Chapman sucked?
One Fan
Bingo realryan! He had a lucky 28 innings on a team that sucked so he was really not in one pressure situation all year as Padres suck so bad
SD scallywag
A lucky 28 innings haha cause he’s not throwing 98 with the filthiest change up in the game this year
natsgm
Woah!! pump the brakes man. Its fairly obvious he is saying Rodney’s cost / performance ratio should make him the a better trade choice. Plus, Rodney has had the better season… Sounds like someones obsessed with Chapman
One Fan
Rodney is only in the conversation with Chapman because someone made a comment here that we are responding to. Rodney is not in any conversation with Chapman with real gms
MikePLV10
Man, Trolls galore! I think the point here isn’t who is a better pitcher. Obviously it’s Chapman! But what is the best trade for the fish to make..trade their top talent for a great rental relief pitcher, that won’t be back next season and you can’t give a QO too..or trade an intriguing (not top) prospect for a good reliever, having a great season, that you have a decent option for next yr on, which can be picked up and then traded for an intriguing prospect, if they don’t need him..
mike156
Realistically, Rodney is far cheaper…but projected performance through the end of the year–if money were no object–I’d take Chapman in a heartbeat. That being said, Chapman is wearing a Yankees’ uniform, and by definition, that devalues him in the eyes of some commenters.
User 4245925809
It doesn’t devalue him. Fish are paying for 3 months of service and hoping Rodney will stay solid during that time. You think the Yanks would have taken this low A Ball lottery ticket for Chapman?
Both guys walk at the end of the season and both guys have been pretty solid THIS season and BOTH guys walk at the end of the year, hence the Fish were paying for a 100% rental closer and nothing more. Look at the numbers for THIS season and ppl available and admit.. I’ve never really been a huge Rodney fan, but he probably was about the cheapest (trade wise) who was going to be available that had been solid so far this year, especially if NY was looking for top talent for rental Chapman and I ain’t slamming them, they might be still attempting to compete.
disgruntledreader 2
Not for nothing, but the Fish actually inherit a pretty cheap option on Rodney at the end of this year.
mike156
Yankees can give Chapman a CO if they wish, so the price needs to be higher than a first round pick.. They don’t necessarily have to trade him–he has on the field value and off-season value. I have no idea what Rodney will do–maybe he will be lights out the rest of the way, but the market for him valued him at this level (of course, we are talking about the Padres)
I don’t think the Rodney deal was a bad deal at all. I just think he’s not a good comp for Chapman
davidcoonce74
Rodney has a team option for 2017, actually.
YourDaddy
Go back and read the article, please. The Fish have an option year on Rodney. It is not a rental.
krillin
Just the fact that Rodney is even in the same conversation as Chapman shows that Miami did well here. If I were the Marlins I would want Rodney over Chapman simply for the price tag. Sure Chapman has a better history, but the price makes Rodney seem like a better choice (specifically for the Marlins). However, trading for Chapman would have probably been a great move too.
One Fan
Chapman is so much better then Rodney that I dont understand the point
baseballjunkie68
Better not be Naylor
Brixton
If it is, I’ll make you an honorary Phillies fan to ease your suffering a bit. Not sure how much it’ll help though.
bleacherbum
I hope it is Naylor, our first base depth isn’t good throughout the minors and he would really improve that. He is the number 2 prospect in the Marlins system, I’d be stoked if it was him.
lonestardodger
Have fun watching the arrow and the sideways hat.
dhud
May be the most obnoxious individual in all of baseball…
_mannyalvarez
why is that bad?
YourDaddy
If you had even half a clue as to why he does both you would not be dissing him. He is all class and both of those moves show it.
Your comment, on the other hand, is slime under the rock obnoxious.
noonecarez
Smh Jays should of tried for him the bullpen would of kinda be good
Bob Smiley
i hope the Padres get Chris Paddack!
thebighurt619
Said good a ball prospect hes in a ball
Bob Smiley
he is legit.
BoldyMinnesota
It is paddack
BoldyMinnesota
According to Keith law
bleacherbum
Paddack is a stud. His stats his senior year in high school and so far in A ball are microscopic.
disgruntledreader 2
You know who else had great high school stats?
Like 100% of pitchers who never made it to Double-A.
Which isn’t to say Paddack isn’t good. But if you think he’s good because of high school stats, you’re doing it wrong.
tim815
Nice call.
Bob Smiley
thanks. My padres dont do much. but i like this deal.
SixFlagsMagicPadres
His theatrics were fun while it lasted, but this is a smart move. He’s having a good season and there’s no sense keeping him when the rest of the team is doing so bad. It will be interesting to see what they get in return.
tim815
I’m hearing “good pitcher in A-Ball”. Anyone know the Marlins system well?
formerlyz
all of their best prospects are in the lower minor leagues
_mannyalvarez
2nd worst farm system in the major leagues. paddock was rated our 13th prospect starting the season but probably went up because of this season
hojostache
He was a low prospect in a bad farm system….but he has pitched far far above that ranking. I’ve read a couple of scouting reports and the numbers he’s put up are impressive. I think it works for both sides because the Fish get a closer (who admittedly is playing above his head) and SD gets a guy who looks to be on the upswing.
benchwarmer
So would Bucther be the new closer in SD?
eggy
Probably quackenbush no
formerlyz
Depending on who it is they gave up, I’m good with this for the Marlins even though it adds another arm with command and control issues. The Marlins bullpen walks a lot of guys. Still, they really needed another 2 arms, at least, and at least Rodney can pitch late in games. I would also like to see them add a lefty that can get lefties out, and obviously, they still need to address the rotation with at least 1 arm…but more likely, they need 2 with Fernandez and Conley both on innings limits, and not much else in the rotation
Brixton
Paddack is one of the more intriguing guys in the minors. 9 hits and 2 walks allowed in like 30 innings in A ball. I don’t like this for the Marlins, but if they feel like they can win, go for it.
formerlyz
I cant believe the Marlins are really giving up Paddack, if its true. Its like the organization is trying to be terrible, and make things worse for fans like me. Just continue to give away all our talent for nothing time and time and time again, and then make up for those mistakes by doing the same thing. This isnt even a necessary move if they didnt give away Sam Dyson, when they already needed bullpen help before that.. Truly amazing
chound
Poor Red Sox, all the cheap arms are going away…
Fenway North
no kidding
teddyt93
Has anyone seen Paddack pitch? Does he throw hard? Could someone tell us more about him?
desertpads760
I haven’t seen him live but what I have read up on him is that he throws 92-94 mph fastball with good movement. His best pitch apparently is his changeup which is considered a double plus category. He has improved on a third pitch which I think is a silder buy is still a work in progress.
YourDaddy
I saw him pitch last month in Lexington. Was 93-95 with FB all the way through the 5th. Wicked changeup. Hit and miss with the slider, mostly miss. If he develops a third pitch then he could be a middle of rotation starter. If he doesn’t he still has FB and changeup to be a good 7-8th inning reliever.
davidcoonce74
BA calls him 88-92 with the fastball and a tremendous changeup, which would explain the video-game numbers in low-A, as young hitters probably haven’t seen too many great changeups. Profile now is as a reliever because of the lack of a third pitch. Hopefully the Padres move him up from low-A- he’s not learning anything there at this point.
jaxsunsmarlins
I made an account just to comment on this. Our front office makes it so tough to be a fan of the Marlins. I was initially pretty happy with picking up Rodney but was blown away when I heard it was paddack. I would have thought he would be nearly untouchable, especially considering our lack of elite prospects and overall minor league depth. This is just crazy
YourDaddy
He was not even ranked in the top 10 of any list for Marlins prospects. Why so upset over a guy in low A ball? Wouldn’t you have a guy that could solidify your bullpen so you can contend now?
Cd360
After the season he’s been putting up he’s easily one of the Marlin’s best prospects. The frustration probably comes from the fact that Miami seems to stay in this eternal state of .500 ball never truly contending or rebuilding. And even with the season Rodney is having (in a very small sample size btw), you will always be disappointed to see a potential 3 starter who’s having an elite year (again small sample size) for a 39 year old reliever who was cut last year.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Trust me, as a Padres fan I know all about the whole “stuck around .500, never contending nor rebuilding” thing.
YourDaddy
Paddack has an even smaller sample size than Rodney and Rodney had one of the best seasons EVER for a closer. He is a decent prospect, a guy that isn’t on most teams top 10 even after his hot start this year, and maybe not even top 20 for a really good farm system, and he is in low A ball. Even if he masters that slider and makes it to the bigs, its going to be 2019 at the very earliest. The Royals showed how a shutdown pen can carry you in the playoffs. For any Fish fans complaining about this trade you really need to step back and ask yourself, do you like winning now? Or would you rather be perpetually waiting for prospects to pan out?
BoldyMinnesota
Lol 9 hits all season. That’s video game numbers in rtts
sandman12
This could prove to be the worst trade ever. I can’t imagine one baseball person who would trade a young man like Paddack for three months of Rodney.
Melvin McMurf
agreed…..rodney isnt worth it
stymeedone
….until the team wins the WS.
eggy
I honestly could not stop laughing after that I was thinking the exact same thing
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Rodney has a club option for next year, Paddack hasn’t done jack yet and the Marlins want to win now. This trade may look bad 4 years from now like the Adrian Gonzalez trade, but who knows if the Marlins would have won the 2003 World Series without Ugueth Urbina?
Priggs89
This won’t even sniff the Arrieta trade in the “Worst Trade Ever” debate.
Jorge Soler Powered
Trumbo for Clevenger is quickly catching up to the Arrieta deal.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Clevenger was included in both trades lol.
Trumbo is a one year rental so no matter what he does this year it’s still not that bad.
Ray Ray
I’ve got news for you. None of them is as bad as Bagwell for Larry Andersen yet.
Jorge Soler Powered
But I’m sure Seattle would like to have Trumbo over Aoki right about now.
Cd360
The Padres traded Corey Kluber for Ryan Ludwick, Rizzo for Cashner. We’re pretty far up there too.
YourDaddy
You didn’t read the article, did you? Rodney is under Marlins control through 2017 because of the option. If he pitches even reasonably well the rest of the way he is a bargain. Paddack is a prospect who is in low A ball and is no help to a contending team. The Padres are going nowhere this year or next, so we can take a chance on Paddack. The Marlins are in the WC lead right now. The question is do you want to win now or have a prospect that might help your club as a middle of the rotation starter in 2019 or 2020?
jljr222
Great trade, love it for the Yankees 😉
stymeedone
Wonderful for Seattle as well. Detroit makes out like a bandit. Cleveland continues to play cheap. This should wrap it up for the Brewers! Go Cubs!
It effects them just as much as the Yankees, if not more. By just as much, I mean not at all.
rmullig2
Are those other teams about to start a series with San Diego this week? Having your opponent trade away their closer who is having a great year just before you get to town is always good news.
Cd360
You missed the point of it helping the Yankees.
MB923
Actually it does effect the Yankees because the Yankees have the 2 best relievers on the trade market.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
So if this is what the market is for rental relievers, I’m guessing the Yankees will probably just go the QO route on Chapman.
yanks02026
Rodney isn’t chapman or Miller.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
He’s having a better season than Chapman and Miller isn’t a good comparison because he’s not a rental.
Ken M.
Rodney is not a rental either. $2M club option.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
So then Chapman should have even less value
KJ
Huh. Well then. Since the Padres default representative for the All-Star game is usually their closer, I wonder who it’s going to be now. Myers?
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Paddack clocks into the Padres farm system as their #11 prospect
desertpads760
This trade is a no lose situation for the padres. Rodney will only last a couple more years due to his age and the padres won’t be contending for at least 2 or 3 years. You never no with minor leaguers but at least it’s not a fringe prospect with no upside. Good target by Preller.
SixFlagsMagicPadres
I like the prospect the Padres got back in the deal. Paddack’s numbers look pretty good down in A ball. It’ll be interesting to see where he takes it. Overall, this was a pretty good trade.
Ray Ray
9 hits in 30 innings is only “pretty good” to you? If that’s not at least (small sample) great, if not elite, then you should probably lower your expectations a bit.
davidcoonce74
There’s a dozen guys with numbers like this at any given point in low-A ball. Paddack is too advanced for the level – guys that age just aren’t used to seeing a great changeup. I’ll get excited when I see what he does in high-A and AA. Lack of elite fastball velocity might be a concern going forward.
SixFlagsMagicPadres
Haha I wasn’t trying to downplay his numbers, I guess my description was just very bland. This trade was still a great way to add another piece to the farm and capitalize on the chance they took by signing Rodney this past offseason.
metseventually 2
This Paddack kid is interesting. Amazing numbers, but not a lot of innings pitched per start?
Priggs89
If I had to guess, I’d say that’s by design.
everlastingdave
I’m fine with this as a Marlins fan. Rodney fills an obvious need and I’m not going to freak out over trading away an A-ball pitcher, regardless of his numbers.
YourDaddy
This is a good deal for both teams. Rodney instantly makes the Marlins bullpen deeper and AJ gets to move out of closer role. The Marlins are looking to contend and with a couple of other small moves they can. If they don’t address starting pitching this will have been a waste.
Our Padres are not going to contend this year or next, so getting a kid like Paddack that is 3 years away from the majors, but has a very projectable frame, 6’4″ and 200 lbs, and already has a plus FB and a devastating changeup is a no-brainer for us. Even if Paddack never develops a plus 3rd pitch that turns him into an MLB starter, he still has the stuff to be a late-inning reliever.
bsteady powers
Perfect kinda deal for Rodney. He was gamble. Paid off. Roll the dice on the prospect.
bsteady powers
I called that one. The Dodgers basically have 2 rotations.
jd396
I think the Chapman vs. Rodney thing is just trying to illustrate that sometimes getting three people out and getting three people out with flair is kind of the same thing. It’s not like Chapman isn’t better but there’s a reason why WAR numbers don’t add up very quickly for relievers… the difference between good and great isn’t always going to be worth the price.
In other words, if you throw a baseball through one window and throw a bowling ball through an identical window… the replacement glass isn’t going to cost more because it’s more broken.
Lance
to me, things like ERA and WAR don’t matter with closers. You can have eight consecutive shutout innings, getting eight saves…..but if you get blasted in the 9th game for 5 runs, your ERA looks bad. Getting saves eight out of nine times is a pretty good average.
Cd360
That is hilariously ignorant. I’m guessing you also value wins very high lol.
Cobra39
Who wants wins, am I right?!
Cd360
I can’t tell whether or not you’re being sarcastic.
Cobra39
Who gets credit for a win is circumstantial, I get it. But I’ve read on here at various times that “batting average is worthless”, that for a pitcher “wins don’t matter”, for batters ” RBIs aren’t important ” and it makes me laugh for when you say these different things are of no value, you are also saying that having quality in those areas does not matter. I totally disagree. It takes many players of different abilities to make a team. That’s all.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Ask Shelby Miller what he thinks of the “win” stat for pitchers.
billysbballz
In the playoffs would you rather have Rodney or Chapman who can strike out the side and not put one ball in play of your the Cubs. Rodney is having a good year but no wonder he is a journey man and his age is no benefit. Chapman value is exponentially greater add in he is a lefty! This trade is great news for Yankee fans.
Niekro
The problem is the biggest team in the Cubs way is really good at putting the ball in play and they strikeout among the league fewest, hard velocity doesn’t always play against high contact teams, he will be fueling the power for the Giants hitters. The Nationals have been very plate aware too they are going to force Chapman to throw strikes. I’d rather have the guy who can get outs no matter how he goes about doing it.
billysbballz
So you are saying you would rather have Rodney then?
I’m not sure if your a cub fan but if theo thinks remotely like you the Cubs will be going into the playoffs with exactly what they have. No way is Cash trading Chapman for Vogelbach and a bullpen arm in single A. This is where the Yanks let the market do the talking and wait it out.
Niekro
It isn’t that simple cost to get him + what is all available + do the Cubs want to ruin a feel good story by bringing in a at the very least complete idiot, in Chapman.
Niekro
If you are talking in a complete vacuum where cost to acquire is the same, public perception and potential playoff opponents dont matter well then yes obviously Chapman is the choice.
davidcoonce74
For relievers I never look at wins, saves, ERA, blown saves etc. I couldn’t tell you who leads the league in saves this year (or RBI for that matter.) The only numbers I look at for pitchers are hits/9, BB/9 and strikeout rate. ERA for a guy who pitches four innings a week is a pointless stat. Saves are just a function of the manager. They aren’t a skill.
Lance
yes, saves are a function of the manager. but, usually a pitcher has to earn the managers trust to be put in save situations and they get that trust by being successful most of the time.
billysbballz
Your forgetting a very important aspect, Chapman and Miller are both lefties which is huge commodity plus they are both shutdown lefties with high strikeout rates. It’s laughable listening to sillyness that Rodney stats are comparable and this shows why the Yanks won’t get much and it’s great news for the Cubs, lmao. Stopppp
The Yanks can either help themselves trading Chapman now or get a first rd pick in next years deep draft later. Either way most Yankee fans don’t want to see Miller traded unless the prospects coming back are worth it. Chapman is another story but no reason why the Yanks would just give him to the Cubs for a low A prospect or two when his value is worth much more then that.
NotCanon
Do you really think that Chapman would turn down a year at ~$15MM? For that matter, do you really expect that another team would give up a 1st/2nd-round pick for the honor of signing a 29-year-old power reliever, with a recent domestic violence charge hovering over his head, to an expensive, multi-year deal?
I just don’t find either of those cases particularly likely. Closers are commanding higher salaries lately, but $15MM AAV is still about as rare as rare gets, and Chapman likely wouldn’t command a considerably lower salary in his age 30 year than his age 29. So if the Yankees like him, by all means, give him a QO, but I wouldn’t expect that to net them a draft pick at all – if only because his agent will be pounding on his door to accept it.
thecoffinnail
Just like David Robertson accepted his a couple of years ago, right? A closer will NEVER accept a QO. I doubt if Melencon would even accept one. They are looking for multiple guaranteed years. They are the most fickle of all players. One year they are amazing and the next they are getting lit up ie: Rodney, Storen, Jim Johnson, Balfour, and Soriano recently and remember Heath Bell a few years ago? A closer will take a 4/$40m contract way before he will take a 1/$15m. There is a zero, in fact, less than zero chance Chapman accepts a QO. Unless of course his arm falls off, starts getting rocked, or repeats his disgusting actions from last year. If he were to do that I believe the Yankees would get another year of control over him because the suspension he will surely get will mess with his service time.
NotCanon
Robertson was/is good, but he never had the consistent excellence that Chapman has, and – although it’s only a marginal difference – Robertson was a year older, with about 100 more innings on his arm. Also, at the tmie Robertson didn’t accept his QO, nobody had ever accepted the QO.
Since then, teams have become far more leery of giving up their picks to sign FAs, and all the projections of relievers getting 8-figure AAVs have mostly proven untrue. In the last signing period alone almost 16% of the players who were made a QO, accepted them (3 of 19 – the 20th signed a contract extension instead). Also, the QO has increased in value from $15.3MM to what will certainly be above $16MM this year.
And, again, Robertson didn’t have a recent domestic abuse situation hanging over him. Once you get nailed for that kind of thing (yes, he wasn’t charged, but the fact that he didn’t appeal the suspension makes it appear likely he did indeed do it), the odds are significantly higher that you’ll do so again. Whether he does or not, that’s a cloud hanging over him which played a massive part in why he’s not a Dodger right now. Obviously, there are multiple teams for whom that is a major concern.
eggy
As an Orioles fan I will say that if Miller gets traded unless you give up a top 25 prospect you got a steal without him the Orioles would not have made the playoffs in 2014 and they gave up a top 100 for one year but with Miller’s team friendly contract he will get a top 50 and a top100 or more and whatever team gets him will have made a good deal as he is a lefty who gets righties and lefties out
thecoffinnail
With his contract he should get a Kimbrel like return. He is cheaper than Kimbrel and has been a bit better the last couple years. Plus he is the ultimate team player. He will pitch middle relief if that is what the team needed. There are not many closers and none with his talent that would do that with a smile on their face. He will improve his new team in everyway. I really hope he goes to the Cubs. I am a realistic Yankee fan. I know they won’t get Schwarber but if they were to get something like Happ, Vogelbach and Stinnett would be nice. I am probably dreaming on Happ though. Cease, McKinney, Vogelbach works as well. With the farm the Cubs have they should have no problem putting a package together that the Yankees would fall all over themselves saying yes to. I don’t think Yankee fans realize exactly how deep the Cubs farm is. We love Judge because he is a solid positional player prospect for the first time in years. But, he wouldn’t even be top 5 in the Cubs farm. I bet the Cubs could put a package together for the entire Yankees back end bullpen (Betances/Miller/Chapman) just using their farm and would only deplete the higher levels. Would Yankee fans really be upset with a return of Torres, Happ, Cease, Candelario, McKinney, Vogelbach, Soler, plus parts? I am sure they would riot at first and then celebrate once they checked them out a bit. (WestcoastRyan would of course rip Cashman because none of those guys have done jack) The Cubs would coast to a series victory shoring up their only weak spot and the Yankees rebuild/retool would be done in one trade. I would do a backflip (and I can barely walk) if the Yankees could add talent like that in exchange for their back end bullpen. Plus they can re-sign Chapman in a few short months. I know, I know, I am dreaming. Time to wake up and realize the Yankees think they have a chance at competing this year and will buy someone like CarGo instead. Or, more than likely since Cashman has a thing for speedy left handed CF slap hitters, he will probably bring in Melvin Upton instead. Why give Hicks a real chance when you can get another solid player (from 2011) for nothing much more than money. Sorry about yet another long rant. I live a pretty useless existence and once I get typing I can’t seem to stop.
One Fan
Thecoffinnail makes a lot of sense!
SD scallywag
Make cashner the closer!
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Cashner is a starter.
hojostache
Chapman will reject the QO if he can get more than $16m in a multi-yr deal on the open market. Relievers need multi-yr deals more than most any other position because of the volatility inherent to their role. Think of it like guaranteed money in the NFL…they need to get as much as they can up front in their first FA contact because there may not be another one if their performance tanks.
AndThisGameBelongsToMySanDiegoPadres
Since some of you seem confused, assuming Chapman isn’t traded within the next month, he will 100% receive a QO and he will 100% reject said QO.
basilisk4
Shrewd move by the Padres to get rid of this guy and get something for him while they can.
Just hope for their sake they did a better job of talent evaluation than in the Justin Upton trade.
sandman12
How can this discussion even involve a journeyman, on his last legs, relief pitcher? The Padres just got a kid with a brilliant changeup, over 15 innings of hitless ball to his credit. That’s all anyone should be talking about.