Baseball America’s Ben Badler has compiled scouting reports on the Top 50 prospects on the upcoming July 2 international market, in addition to providing projected landing spots for each player on the list. The exhaustive report on the international scene requires a BA subscription, but it’s highly recommended for those who wish to dive headfirst into learning about the upcoming glut of talent that will be injected into most clubs’ minor league pipelines. Those looking to learn more about the process can also check out this primer from Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs, who also provides a ranking of the class (with further explanation here).
Here are just a few highlights from Badler’s excellent work on the topic, which deserves a full read:
- Badler takes a particularly close look at top prospect Kevin Maitan, who he says may be a better prospect than Miguel Sano was as a teenager. The link comes with a lengthy and detailed scouting report, including discussion of the question whether Maitain will be able to stay at shortstop for the long run. Scouts are divided on the likelihood, but all seem to agree it’s at least a plausible outcome.
- Maitan has long been said to be heading for the Braves, and we’ve yet to hear anything to change that expectation. Atlanta has lined up a big batch of spending, but Badler provides a bit of context for just how large: he says it “should look comparable to what the Yankees did in 2014-15.” (You can refresh yourself on New York’s shock and awe campaign here.)
- The Padres appear headed in that direction, too, as Badler says that a $30MM to $35MM spend might be their floor. In addition to big activity on the Cuban market, San Diego is in line to add eight of the top fifty available players. As for the Nationals, who are also believed to be pacing the market in spending, it might not be quite that dramatic. But Washington could still come away with three of the fifteen best prospecs on the market.
-  The Astros, too, seem ready to drop some big cash — including a $3.5MM bonus for Cuban shortstop Anibal Sierra. Houston is eyeing five of the top fifty names on Badler’s list, he notes. One player that could be ticketed for the ’Stros is fifth overall prospect Freudis Nova.
- Nova had been connected to the Marlins before failing a PED test. Now, Badler explains, Miami has a big chunk of pool availability and little in the way of commitments. The club could deal that away or see if it can find a nice price on the Cuban market.
- It also remains to be seen what the Reds will do, but Badler explains that things could go in either of two directions. Cinci could trade for some added bonus pool space to add Cuban shortstop Alfredo Rodriguez and a few smaller signings without hitting the penalty. Or, the team could enter the broader Cuban market and blow past its limits.
- The White Sox are expected to land slugging prospect Josue Guerrero — who, yes, is a part of the famous family. Despite being quiet in recent years, the Athletics are in position to add some talent, including George Bell, whose father (same name) was a quality big leaguer.
- The Brewers aren’t believed to have any seven-figure bonuses lined up, but could still add a high number of interesting players with the fifth-highest spending availability in the game. Likewise, the Phillies are expected to spread their cash.
- Of course, not every team will have the opportunity to spend lavishly this period; the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, D-backs, Angels, Rays, Red Sox, Giants, Royals and Blue Jays are each prohibited from spending more than $300K on international amateurs after incurring maximum penalties, though that doesn’t mean those organizations don’t have a chance to find some talent.
petfoodfella
Be interesting to see how many of those Yankee’s class of International Spending made it to the majors, or are doing well in the minors.
Hopefully the Braves look at that before they invest a lot.
JSappington
This is one of the few opportunities where a team acquiring talent ONLY pays money. Smart teams break the bank and break it big.. Look at other teams that have used this strategy. The team I’m most familiar with, signed Torres and Eloy(1
petfoodfella
But the Braves’ track record isn’t that great in International signings. So, proceed with caution. lol.
Besides, they need to get hitters, not more middle infielders and pitchers.
jay2033
Sooooo Julio Teheran, Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna don’t count I guess?
WAH1447
Hahaha that was such dumb statement you also forgot to include Andruw Jones and I believe Javy Lopsz if I’m not mistaken. The braves have had quite the success on the international front
chieftoto
And Arodys Vizciano I believe….
Sirsleepit
Don’t forget andrelton Simmons
Salionski
Simmons was drafted.
Doesn’t change that the Braves have a strong history in international signings, so the original poster is way off. Plus the needing hitters and not middle infielder is hilarious, since the middle infielder they are targeting gets comps like Miggy Cabrera and Chipper Jones. It’s not like he’s highly regarded for his defense.
Brixton
And sometimes is works out wonderfully. The Phillies picked up Maikel Franco and Carlos Ruiz along with guys like Freddy Galvis, Cesar Hernandez, Hector Neris, Edubray Ramos, and other guys like Odubel Herrera and Jorge Alfaro signed with the Rangers
Gnotorious
Here is how the Yankee’s spending spree has turned out to date. I believe they are all still in the GCL.
Jonathan Amundaray – $1.5 million, 16 games, .085 / .286 / .128
Antonio Arias – $800,000, 57 games, .244 / .330 / .307
Hoy Jun Park – $1.1 million, 119 games, .236 / .346 / .363
Juan de Leon – $???, 57 games, .226 / .341 / .364
Miguel Flames – $ 1 million, 59 games, .304 / .383 / .429
Dermis Garcia – $3.2 million, 28 games, .169 / .278 / .265
Wilkerman Garcia – $1.35 million, 45 games, .273 / .385 / .340
Nelson Gomez – $2.25 million, 63 games, .236 / .344 / .415
Diego Castillo – $750,000, 61 games, .323 / .366 / .428
thebare
Stop lie’er the Yanks don’t get beat in anything ask Theo
angelsinthetroutfield
And the Angels are prohibited from spending over $300k due to overspending on a single player who doesn’t seem to be any good at all.
User 4245925809
That one was mind boggling.. 8m was it not? Fringy sign and the kid wasn’t ranked all that high. Maybe the LAA scouts saw something few others did and he’s a diamond in the rough, but on surface, was a real head scratcher.
Yanks cleaned up on every hitter from draft 2 summers back, Boston grabbed 2 top pitchers, including Espinoza, tho the other (Acosta) just recently returned to Dominica and has been suspended by the team.
If Espinoza pans out, it would have been worth it.
xalz
Most of the large market teams seem to be curtailed to a $300K spending limit. The majority of mid to small size markets should be looking toward to a great IFA signing period. The next 3-5 years will tell how this international signing period plays out. We will likely have a new player agreement based around incorporating more rules regarding the international free agency period. By the time this plays out the two drafts may be wound together making for a much more exciting baseball draft. Imagine if the internationals were combined with the domestic with increased spending, of course.
xalz
I fully expect the Padres, Braves, Astros, and many other teams to stock up on players, here. As the article details, the prior year’s over spenders are limited. And there are plenty of teams who went down to be in all in for the next two years with limited spending per overage spread over multiple seasons. Interesting ruleset..
Priggs89
The International signing rules are dumb.
Brixton
Why? So teams like the Yankees and Dodgers don’t get everyone?
chieftoto
I agree they are a little iffy, but then LAD, NYY, BOS, PHI, LAA, etc. get all the players. MLB needs to install a draft for the Intl. that is similar to the draft over here.
thecoffinnail
The argument that the big market teams sign all of the best players and the smaller market teams can’t get talent doesn’t hold water when you look at the two best prospects from IFA the Yankees have (Severino and Mateo) were both signed for $225k. Any team could have outbid the Yankees for them. Also, I could be mistaken but I believe the Dodgers signed Urias for something well under the $300k threshold. Yes, Sanchez cost the Yankees $3m to sign but that was back in 2009. It has taken him over 6 years to get to this point. The Yanks fat checkbook landed him but that is alot of service time without a return. The checkbook helps but good scouting plays a much bigger role than what the talking heads would have us believe. I know it will never happen because the union would strike before allowing it but I really like someone else’s idea (on this thread I believe) of combining the domestic draft with an international draft and have it at the same time. Every teams first round pick could possibly yield a franchise player. Plus, competitive round picks would be even more valuable (because they can be traded) and would yield some really interesting trades. Like I said, it will never happen. But an old fan can dream, about a change to the game, that would make fans happy and would provide a draft that fans would count down the days to.
Gogerty
Mighty fine argument coffin.
gibbs58
Not that the Yanks, Red Sox, and Dodgers get the best players necessarily, because that also depends on scouting and development, but if you’re International Player X, and it comes down to the New York Yankees or the Milwaukee Brewers, who would you choose? So to say they don’t have an advantage in a free market is naive. Plus Sanchez was 16 when they signed him. I don’t think they were counting on an immediate return on their investment.
chieftoto
Sure, maybe they got steals with those guys but if the restrictions are taken off NYY will sign almost every player.
jakegreenberg24
Urias was like 60K. Mazara was 3mil . The Yankees signed 8 Top 30 int’l guys in 14-15 and 0 appear in their top 15 prospects. This whole process is random, and there are clearly many hidden gems and overhyped prospects who bust.
SixFlagsMagicPadres
It’s time for Preller to utilize his knack for acquiring international talent from his time with the Rangers. Here’s to hoping he gets some quality players.
thebighurt619
He had a decent signing last year in terms of under the radar signings grabbing the 26th best in kevin melean and andres munoz who was the 29th. So i think preller will be able to grab a plethora of international talent.
thediesel4
Well with the fangraphs chart they made, the Pads are going after everyone.
Priggs89
Because the same teams are going to spend big every third year and get everyone. It doesn’t really change much of anything. The big spending teams are still going to be getting all the best players; it’s just going to cycle every third year. One year the Yankees and Dodgers will get everyone, the next year the Red Sox and Cubs will get everyone, and the next year some other team will get everyone. Then the cycle will just keep going.
If there’s not going to be an international draft, draft picks should be attached to these signing like a qualifying offer or something; not for every player, but for the amount of money you spend. If you spend X amount, you lose your first round pick next year (can still be protected inside the top 10). If you spend Y amount, you lose a second round pick. Then go from there. At least the big spending teams can’t get ALL the talent that way.
thebighurt619
A draft is for sure necessary and also trading draft picks is necessary in both the june draft and july international draft. Since mlb has protected picks teams should be able to trade protected picks in the future which can become unprotected after certain years ala nba style. Be interesting to see teams win the ws or make the playoffs wind up wit a top 5 pick they acquired years ago.
thecoffinnail
Agreed 100%. I wish the players union wasn’t so strong in baseball.
tim815
Ooooor, they could fix it this time.
If a team overspends, put them in the doghouse for…… say…….. thirty years.
That ought to fix it.
ThatGuy 2
Everyone talks about the draft, but there’s no way that gets implemented! Logistics just don’t make sense… It would be a fools errand to try and implement s draft
steelerbravenation
The should do an International draft with some sort of structure as a supplemental draft is in the NFL. Auction off next seasons draft picks for the international guys this July.
Blue_Painted_Dreams_LA
This is why an international draft would never work. First you have strong leagues in various countries. These countries aren’t giving their players up at the detriment of their leagues. The leagues/clubs are also obtaining vital financial assets to assist. So Japan, the KBO, Cuban leagues make will fight that tooth and nail. Second the major draw for many of these players is the signing bonus. If players get drafted what’s their incentive to come over especially in the wealthier leagues. Granted Cuban players as of how the country is constructed will always find incentive. If you look at the current landscape of bonuses you’re really only receiving money if your in the rope 5-9 rounds. The posting system is not going away. In fact when Cuba-US relations fail and if that country is ever turned around you’ll see a posting system in Cuban. An international draft is a pipe dream which it should be. Especially with foreign players putting in their required 5-6 years of time in their respective leagues. They in essence will be drafted and treated like college seniors. Drafted under slot under value.
Gogerty
I love the international draft argument. It just makes me think, “we are America, we should control everything!”
noonecarez
If there was a Cuban draft Toronto would find it so easy
krillin
I never thought of it that way. Thanks for sharing that
Niekro
Have to look at international market as gambling, you might win a few dollars off Bill Gates in poker but you will never beat Bill Gates. Large market teams take more risks in the market simply because they can, Imagine the A’s spending 60 million on Moncada and him being a bust that would have an impact on them for years. If he turns out a bust the Red Sox basically move on if he becomes a hall of famer the Red Sox have gained from simply having more money to waste, not exactly the spirit of competition.
The Penalties do seem to help but too many handshake agreements are being talked about and prospects being told to wait just seems extremely shady.