Mariners ace Felix Hernandez, who is on the disabled list retroactive to May 28 with a strained right calf muscle, could miss another four weeks, reports Marly Rivera of ESPN.com. When the Mariners placed Hernandez on the DL on June 1, their hope was that the 30-year-old would sit out only two starts and return as early as this Sunday. Hernandez still wasn’t moving well or throwing as of earlier this week, though, so he underwent a second MRI and the doctor advised him to rest the calf for a few more weeks and wear a boot “as often as possible” to protect the muscles surrounding the calf, the right-hander told Rivera.
Prior to landing on the DL, Hernandez was his usual formidable self from a results standpoint, recording a 2.85 ERA over 63 innings. However, the six-time All-Star’s strikeout and walk rates (7.57 and 3.71, respectively, per nine innings) are currently at their worst levels since 2008, and his fastball velocity before the injury sat at a career-low 90 mph.
While the onetime Cy Young Award winner isn’t as dominant as he was in his younger days, his absence certainly doesn’t help the cause of the 34-28 Mariners, who trail the AL West-leading Rangers by four games and are percentage points from holding one of the two Wild Card spots. Hernandez has easily been the best Mariners starter this year in terms of run prevention, with Hisashi Iwakuma, Wade Miley, Taijuan Walker and Nate Karns all posting significantly higher ERAs. Of those four, only Walker (3.48) has a sub-4.00 mark.
If there’s one positive to glean from Hernandez’s injury, it’s that his replacement, James Paxton, has been a revelation. The left-hander threw 6 1/3 shutout innings Saturday, giving him a 2.25 ERA, 24 strikeouts and four walks through 16 frames (three starts) since taking over for Hernandez. The former well-regarded prospect has thrown his fastball at an astounding average of 97.3 mph – up from a career mean of 94.5 – and has topped out at 100.2, which is likely attributable to a change in arm slot (via FanGraphs’ Eno Sarris). If the new version of Paxton continues faring well, the struggling Miley is a good bet to be the odd man out of the Mariners’ rotation when Hernandez returns.
Make the move. Zunino, Paxton, & Edwin Diaz for Teheran
Not enough going to the Mariners.
Zunino only has 1 offensive tool, Paxton has too many medical question marks, and Diaz isn’t a top 100 prospect.
Did you mean going to Atlanta
Yes, my mistake.
Why would they give up Zunino? He’s their catcher of the future. Everyone keeps thinking he’s a bust, but the guy spent ONE YEAR TOTAL through all three levels and was rushed to the majors. He seems to be figuring it out in the minors. Also, even though Zunino is mainly a power hitter, he’s very good defensively so its not like he’s a Jared Saltalamacchia.
At this stage, the Mariners might not even give up Paxton for Teheran. Paxton is clicking, after plenty of Seattle patience..and Teheran is waiting for the floor to collapse beneath his mirage of a start.
9 1/2 innings are far from finally clicking. K/BB is impressive but at 27 he is older than Julio and where Paxton has had a very good 2 starts Julio has only had a bad 1/2 of year.
I don’t think that would be nearly enough to pry Julio now that I think bout it.
After the Giles haul I would look at Diaz and Zunino for Vizcsino but for me Julio is off table for me now.
Ken Giles’ worse of his 2 years was still twice as good as Vizcaino’s only good year (2015).
That argument still doesn’t work for the current season.
Last thing M’s need is SP even with Hernandez on the shelf. That team still has ‘Kuma, Walker, Karns, Paxton and Miley. That’s pretty solid until Hernandez gets back and about as good (maybe better) than some other playoff competitors have going.
M’s need few other positions, Like C/1b help, not a pitcher that isn’t any better than what they currently have.
How about Seagar for Teheran
Why would the mariners trade seager?
Really? This is a terrible trade. Seager is top 3 players on the team.
don’t know much bout M’s prospects. I know Zpaxton was a top pitching prospect at one time. I know Zunino was drafted and forced up without proper development but is now coming around in AAA. Young enough to be our catcher of the future and I know Diaz is the 2nd best prospect and he throws heat and a good slider. Would move him to the bullpen and groom him Vizcaino & Jenkins to be a 3 headed monster.
But we probably could get a better package somewhere else for Teheran.
Catching prospects (who have a good bat and are considered to be good defensively) are arguably the most valuable type of prospect. While I’m not disagreeing that they could probably get a good package for Teheran, a two-way catcher plus more is a lot for a #2/3 pitcher. Please get the notion that teams are going to be giving up their premier prospects for Teheran just because Dave Stewart gave up top guys for Shelby Miller out of your head.
I was on board with giving up a lot for Teheran, but then I looked into it and realized he’s not as great as most think, although he is very good, he’s better off as 2 or a 3, and giving up on someone like Zunino for a 2 or 3 just isn’t a very good trade.
Even most educated Braves fans realize Teheran is a 3/4 on most rotations, even the amazing Cubs rotation he would fight for 5th. My only argument (leaving Miller trade out) is that it just depends on what the acquiring team needs. Rangers, both Sox, Yanks, Pittsburgh and a couple more could use a strong 3/4 in the rotation to push towards the playoffs.
Gotta look maybe the Rangers would have the best deal for Julio.
They could put together a great offer for him but I don’t really see the need
As a stros fan, we do not need the rangers to acquire any more good players. Add Julio to that rotation, and it’d be scary good.
Gotta give something to get something. The M’s are making a run now. Zunino is not even a part of that, yes Julio is not a 1 but you got Felix you don’t need a number 1. Julio is signed to a team friendly long term contract.
And Teheran’s nonsense sabermetric stats don’t look great but look at the AAAA defense he got playing behind him. He was a top 3 prospect in all of baseball and he has only had a bad half of year. He is a flyball pitcher that would be pitching in a tremendous pitchers park.
This deal would not be a half season rental. Julio is signed long term. As well as Zunino has played in AAA it is still AAA. He has not done it in the majors. The Braves would be risking a lot on potential. Paxton has a ton but he is injured quite a bit and even though Diaz is the M’s top pitching prospect he is not even a top 100 in all MLB. I would think ATL would move him to bullpen.
Yeah now that I think about it I wouldn’t want ATL to make that deal. To many uncertainties need more of a sure thing to trade Julio.
Those “nonsense” sabermetric stats that you fail to take the time to understand account for the poor defense behind him.
It’s easier to bash something than understand it.
Its funny you mention “sure thing” because Teheran is pretty much a low end #2/3 pitcher. Why give up a promising two-way prospect (at one of the most valuable positions) for a guy who is pretty much set in stone what he’s going to be. No team, other than Dave Stewart and hia D’Backs, are willing to give up the king’s ransom that the Braves are demanding for their middle of the rotation pitchers.
I am sorry no those sabermetric stats do not take into consideration the individual range of each player playing behind him every night. And I grew up watching 2 Hall of Fame pitchers consistently out perform those same stats year after year in Glavine and Maddux.
Neither 1 of them threw the hardest or even remotely close to hard at all so I don’t care 1 bit about a guys velocity or how much it drops. For example Frank Tanana came up as a flame throwing LH pitcher and after a couple of injuries and a significant drop in velocity he still was able to carve out a successful career. You know what makes Julio Teheran a number 3 for me if he were in a better rotation ? Its the mental game. Watching him I can see he loses focus and has the ability to give up hits and gets himself into trouble. But I also see his ability to get himself out of trouble better than anyone I have seen in a long time. Yes he has lost velocity but he has gained command and the movement has not lost any movement on any of his pitches. I have said it again and again he is lazy and when he leaves the ball up in the zone he is prone to giving up the long ball. The difference between last year and this year is his maturity level. Last year if he gave up a hit or to that one of the statues behind him misplayed he could let it go and it would effect his concentration and lead to big innings. This year he gives up a hit and he buckles down and gets himself out of trouble before he gets himself deep into it. The next step he needs to take is to have the ability to have the same concentration at all times if he develops that he has the talent to be a true number 1.
Now to you JT why is Julio set in stone at a low end 2/3 ? At 25 yrs old and being a top 3 prospect in all of baseball just a few yrs ago and really only having 1 bad half a season in his career why can’t he reach his potential ???? You see teams buy on potential all the time. Glavine came up in 88 and had a few losing seasons before he turned it around into a hall of fame career. Curt Schilling was traded twice before he became a guy who gets hall of fame talk. Or how bout my favorite Jake Arrieta he was a bum for years with BMore. Was traded with another guy for Scott Feldman. Scott friggin Feldman lol. So you are telling me he is able to figure it out and reach his potential and turn into a dominant SP but Julio can’t. And Julio doesn’t even have to change anything other than the mental aspect and that comes with maturity.
You are not talking about Jair Jurrjens or Tommy Hansen (r.i.p.) velocity loss. The velocity loss has improved his movement and command. Thst is called learning to pitch. The harder he throws the straighter the ball goes and he loses the ability to put it where he wants it. He can still throw 95 if need be. Kyle Farnsworth had some of the greatest velocity I ever saw but was he a great dominant RP no he was a journeyman that every team picked up because of them seeing potential. Potential that I may add was the closest to being reached with the time he played in a Braves uni.
If you wanna tell me a stat for Teheran that I would think was important is how many HR that he has givin up that are solo HR as opposed to HR with men on base.
And maybe I don’t understand all the sabermetric stats the way I should maybe I am a 39 yr old hard headed stubborn dinosaur. I believe in OPS and WHIP those were never important stats when I was growing up looking at the back of a baseball card but BABP and FIP and WAR nah utter nonsense.
See where I was in college inventing drinking games and tryin to get the next chick to go out with me in between practices and games these stat geeks were inventing number crunching analytics to try and prove they were smarter than everybody else by minipulating numbers. We picked up a glove they picked up a pencil. Where I believe there is a place for a lot of these stats I still believe observation is the number 1 element to the game.
You understand many of these stats you disregard, especially defensive stats, are based on observation, right? Xharting batted balls, watching defenders, etc – that’s all done by human observers watching the game. And FIP doesn’t take into account any fielding; that’s the point of the statistic. Take a bad defender out of the equation and that gives you a more realistic assessment of a pitcher’s ability.
And the argument about nerds etc. who didn’t play the game are just tired. Lots and lots of people who are part of the “sabrmetrics” community played the game, coached, managed, worked in baseball front offices, interview players daily. It’s a false argument. You can study numbers and play the game. It’s not either/or.
Man stop writing novels and taking everything personally on here. We get it, you have your own views on baseball. Facts are still facts though, wether you like saber metrics or not. (Farnsworth was pretty solid for a lot of contending teams. Never got the big contract he wanted, which is why he jumped around)
Good call, I love the Braves but novels and taking things personal on here are unnecessary.
And I am torn on Julio Teheran. One side says keep him cause he is making the neccessary strides but another says trade him because he is a tremendous asset and we are not going to be competitive for awhile. Yet in 91 nobody thought we would be competitive and then we went worst to first because of a couple of the right free agent signings and the guys already here developing at the right time. Terry Pendleton, Rafeal Belliard, Alejandro Pena, Sid Bream and Charlie Liebrandt were the offseason acquisitions in 91. No game changers on that list. Just the right mix of veterans to go with the young guys so if these guys can develop and the FO can find a couple of the right FA anything is possible for the Braves going into the new stadium.