In his latest rough outing, Red Sox right-hander Clay Buchholz allowed five runs (four earned) on seven hits and five walks Sunday in a 6-2 loss to the Rangers. Afterward, manager John Farrell was noncommittal about Buchholz making his next start, per Scott Lauber of ESPN.com, though he conceded that the team might not have a better option. As their depth chart shows, Triple-A possibilities include Roenis Elias, Henry Owens and Joe Kelly, though each has fared terribly in the majors this year. Buchholz, who has spent some time in the bullpen this season, has logged a 5.90 ERA, 6.13 K/9, 4.24 BB/9 and 41.2 percent ground-ball rate through 76 1/3 innings. Those numbers are all markedly worse than the 31-year-old’s career totals and especially the terrific production he put up in 2015.
More from Boston and a couple NL East cities:
- The Red Sox are scanning the trade market for help, but there are only five teams that have declared themselves sellers thus far as the Aug. 1 deadline nears, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said Sunday. “It’s still a little early,” stated Dombrowski, who added that the Red Sox are “scuffling for positional players at this point.” (Twitter links via Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald). Injuries have sapped the Sox of depth in left field, where Brock Holt, Blake Swihart and Chris Young are all on the disabled list.
- Red-hot Braves starter Julio Teheran has drawn interest from starter-needy Boston, but Atlanta might be better off retaining the 25-year-old than trading him, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution argues. O’Brien points to Teheran’s age, ultra-palatable contract and the lack of quality starters set to hit free agency during the upcoming offseason as reasons for the rebuilding Braves to go forth with the right-hander, who has thrown 23 straight innings without allowing a run and has lowered his ERA to a stingy 2.46 through 106 frames. Teheran has also recorded career-best strikeout and walk rates per nine innings (8.41 and 2.04, respectively) to this point. ERA estimators like FIP (3.68), xFIP (4.00) and SIERA (3.72) aren’t quite buying his results, but Teheran has consistently outperformed those figures throughout his career.
- Phillies manager Pete Mackanin admitted Saturday that he’s in a bind with his team’s catchers, Carlos Ruiz and Cameron Rupp. “That’s the hard part of about this job. You have to give up something to get something, and right now we need offense. At least right now, Cam offers more offense,” Mackanin told Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer. “However, is it more important to guide the young pitcher and bring him along with some veteran experience?” With his .270/.306/.483 batting line and seven home runs in 183 plate appearances, the 27-year-old Rupp has been a bright spot in a toothless Phillies offense, though his 48:6 K:BB ratio doesn’t bode well going forward. However, while Mackanin’s worried about Rupp’s ability (or lack thereof) to aid his pitching staff, the backstop has graded well in the pitch-framing department this year. That’s not true of the 37-year-old Ruiz, who has also contributed to Philly’s offensive woes with a .219/.311/.333 line in 119 trips to the plate. Nevertheless, Mackanin is bullish on Ruiz’s game-calling abilities, notes Gelb.
- Mackanin had center fielder Odubel Herrera shag fly balls in right field prior to the Phillies’ game Saturday, but that doesn’t mean a position change is coming. “If he reads something into it, good,” said Mackanin (via Todd Zolecki of MLB.com). “Maybe he’ll think that he needs to do better. There’s nothing imminent. There’s no plans for me to move him out of there.” Notably, Herrera ranks last among qualified center fielders this year in Defensive Runs Saved (minus-7) and also grades poorly in Ultimate Zone Rating, but he has combated his fielding woes with a stellar .299/.392/.427 offensive showing and eight home runs through 319 PAs, also adding 41 walks against 58 strikeouts.
Michael Macaulay-Birks
How many times do we have to go through this with this guy, cut the cord already
kent814
Bucholz?
rmullig2
Can’t wait for the Sox fans to propose Teheran for a bunch of B-prospects. Before it gets started let’s get one thing clear. Boston does not get Teheran without giving up at least of of their top 4 prospects.
dj227
He’ll end up traded to a team we’ve heard no mention of in trade talks. I could see him going to the Royals, Dodgers, or the Cardinals.
dlevin11
He could also end up with Cubs
chieftoto
Royals and Cards don’t have the farm system to get it done.
bbritton209
Can’t say much about the Royals but you couldn’t be more wrong about the Cards. As a guy who is a Braves fan stuck in Springfield, MO (where St. Louis has their AA team) I can tell you they have plenty of guys in the system to get a trade done. There are some guys I would love to have in the Braves system.
chieftoto
Actually, people tend to over value prospects if they watch them in real life more than once. Cardinals don’t have the prospects…
muschnick
Who do you consider their top 4 prospects?
I agree they will need to give up a lot, but I can’t see them moving Xander or Mookie. I doubt they move JBJ, but I would for Teheran or Sale type along with more top end prospects in the minors.
seamaholic 2
Bogaerts and Mookie aren’t prospects. He’s probably talking about Devers, Moncada, Benintendi, and whomever their fourth guy is. I imagine they’d have to give up one of those three actually.
sdsuphilip
Anderson Espinoza who some prefer to Devers
dlevin11
Devers is still at class A Salem and is barely hitting above .250 while Moncada and Benintendi have been promoted to AA Portland
User 4245925809
Teheran is NOT a Sale type.
southi
I haven’t seen anyone remotely suggest that Teheran was Sale. I’m quite sure that the Red Sox would prefer to have Sale. There is a huge problem with that though.: the White Sox haven’t said they were going to deal Sale.
We all can debate Teheran’s true worth and discuss what may or may not be required to acquire him. The truth is though right now it appears that Teheran may be the best available starting pitcher in a seller’s market. That means the price will be high.
chieftoto
Yes he is…
sdsuphilip
The odds of Teheran being the best starter on market is very low considering he’s only in that 30-50 range area as a starter
bravobravo
Tell me a better pitcher on a better contract surely on the market. Please do!
bravobravo
Johnsilver you just say stuff for no reason. Haha I’m really starting to believe you’re delusional. Nobody ever said that. You’re starting to get a little trollish
Brixton
He never said he was. All he said was Teheran isn’t on Sale’s level, which he isn’t.
Brixton
“but I would for Teheran or Sale type” – Musch
Implying they are on the same level. Someone did say that.
bravobravo
I didn’t take that as them being on the same level. I took that as he would trade so and so for a good pitcher or another good pitcher. You do have to give up value for good pitching. That’s how things work. Now if he suggested a package for Sale and then suggested that same package for Teheran, then that would be putting them on the same level
Brixton
DIfferent interpretations I guess. I took it the same way John did.
bravobravo
He said he would trade JBJ for Teheran or Sale type and some prospects. Which is realistic. Depending on the prospects is where the levels come in to play. You’re right. Different interpretations
southi
Yeah I took that too as Teheran type or Sale type….NOT as Teheran or Sale (being the same type). I guess that statement was open to different interpretations. Over their careers definitely Sale is the more valuable.
chieftoto
Lol;) you guys are so cute!!!
sdsuphilip
Can’t wait for Braves fans to propose Moncada+Benintendi+ and act like Teheran is an ace just based on his ERA. As always both sport fan bases don’t understand fair value. Yes a top 4 prospect needs to be involved, but it’s more likely to be Devers or Espinoza (maybe both if red sox really want him bad, maybe they can get Arodys too) than Moncada or Benintendi.
Reality is Teheran has pitched like a good mid rotation starter which he is, he is under club control for awhile at an affordable price which helps his value quite a bit. Red Sox on another note have some very intriguing lower level arms to be a good third trade piece or second, Roniel Raudes, Josh Ockimey and others.
muschnick
I would think the Braves would require at least 1 major league ready “prospect” along with others. I think there is no doubt it will require at least one of JBJ/Moncada/Benintendi.
As you mention the contract allows all teams in the race to be interested and there aren’t many other good arms that will likely become available so his price will be very high.
sdsuphilip
Then the odds of a trade happening between Boston and Atlanta are extremely low
Jon429
I think the fan bases do understand fair value. But what have we read regarding the lack of SP on the trade market and the weak FA class coming up this offseason makes you think Atlanta would part with Teheran for “fair value”?
Gnotorious
And yet you make no mention of supply and demand which will be one of the biggest factors in what the braves receive for him.
sdsuphilip
That doesn’t mean Boston will want to overpay for him
Gnotorious
No, it doesn’t, but they will have to consider that if they don’t over pay to get him, the may have to face him in the playoffs. Boston wants to win this year, and have a good chance of doing that. I rank Boston and Texas as most likely landing spots based on team needs and what they can offer in return.
sdsuphilip
Giving up elite prospects for good middle of rotation pitchers is never worth the risk. They can shop lower than teheran and find not much worse starters
bravobravo
He would easily be #2 on Boston. Might be number one because David Price surely isn’t pitching like an ace and he def isn’t pitching good enough for what they are paying him. If you don’t want the “middle of the rotation pitcher” then go out and shop lower and find someone not much worse then. See how far that gets you, especially in the playoffs. Boston is going to need a good pitching staff to get deep in the playoffs like years before and I wouldn’t count on David Price to take me to the promise land by himself because he has a consistent track record of not being clutch and coming through in the playoffs. But the Braves will happily keep that “middle of the rotation pitcher” so Boston can shop lower and find not much worse starters lol. Why haven’t they already shopped and traded for a not much worse starter? Why are they even spinning the tires on Teheran if it’s that easy? Lol
bravobravo
I meant kicking the tires
seamaholic 2
Devers is their #1 prospect. You know that, right? Or #1a behind Moncada. Benintendi is not in their class, and Espinoza isn’t worth much after a rough start to this season (actually, Benintendi has kind of stunk too).
Sox have a lot of B level guys though. I’d imagine a Teheran trade would be Benintendi plus a couple guys I’ve never heard of who are pretty good.
muschnick
Pretty much every list I have seen has Devers behind Moncada and Benintendi as well as Espinoza, but I think a big part of the value you seem to ignore is how close they are to playing in the majors. Both Moncada and Benintendi could probably be playing next year where Devers is at least 2 years away and probably 3.
Benintendi does have some questions in terms of his size and whether he can continue to be a power hitter year in and year out with 162 game schedule. With that said he has done it every year, every team he has played on so he is pretty highly regarded.
I think a major requirement for Atlanta is getting at least 1-2 guys they can plug in as starters next year.
southi
While Devers is undoubtedly a good prospect (young age of 19 ) it is going to take some time to develop him. He may end up being the best of their prospects in the long run although not one list I’ve seen lists him as their #1. The problem is that Coppy has repeatedly said he wants major league level offensive talent comparable in age and production to Teheran. Right now I don’t think that Devers fits that description.
Who knows what exactly will transpire but I fully expect that if anyone wants the Braves to deal Teheran they will have to pay a very high price.
User 4245925809
Devers was passed up the minute Moncada signed and will probably end up ranked behind Espinoza and Benintendi when the year is done, just as he is right now by most Sox fans as he has struggled at High A ball this year.
Ken M.
Ockimey is going to be highly coveted by the winter meetings.
bravos4evr
The thing is Teheran will provide between $70m and $100m in excess value over his contract, so any return is going to probably exceed the middle ground by a little bit. That means a top 10 prospect in all of MLB and at a top 50 and another guy from the team’s top 20.
bravos4evr
Teheran is presently tied for 5th in bWAR in all of MLB with 3..4 WAR and only 0.2 WAR behind Salazar for 2nd place. he may regress, he may have improved, it’s hard to tell. But this amusing narrative of ‘he’s a #3 starter” simply isn’t working out in 2016.
paullentz1972
Look Sling Blade: Boston IS NOT going to get Julio Teheran WITHOUT giving up Moncada, Bentintendi, Swihart/Deavers AND Espinoza!
Why? Because his combination of contract ($41 mil over the next 4 1/2 years)…age (25-29, which is his PRIME)…durability (200 plus innings a year)..health (he’s never been on the DL)….talent (he’s learned to pitch in the past year…not just throw. The stats reflect this change).
Boston is paying Runsey Castillo, Panda and Hanley a combined $250 MILLION to stink up the place. David Price can opt out of his contract in 2018 (meaning that if the Yankees don’t outbid them, when they have a lot of contracts coming off the books)…he’s going to cost them a minimum $40 mil a year (along with Kershaw and Greinke..who also can opt out on their teams).
While Teheran may not be a “super ace’ like them……his contract makes him EXTREMELY VALUABLE (meaning that paying him PEANUTS for the next 4 1/2 years….allows IMMENSE savings that can be directed towards improving other areas of the team WITHOUT being subject to the luxury tax).
If Boston wants Teheran (who would SURELY help them catch/pull away from Boston and Toronto and win The AL East)….and if they want him to pitch Game 3 of a playoff series behind Price and Steven Wright (I like having Price pitch game 1….a knuckler like Wright in Game 2…and Teheran in Game 3….which would really throw off the timing of any team)….then they need to pay BIG TIME in prospects.
If not…then I am MORE THAN HAPPY with seeing my Braves keep our ACE (he’s our ace..even if MORONS like you don’t see him as an ace0 and build our pitching staff around him AND his very affordable contract.
In case you aren’t aware….Teheran is making ONLY $3.1 mil in 2016…..$6.3 mil in 2017….$8 mil in 2018…..$11 mil in 2019…and a team option of $12 mil in 2020. He’ll be 28-29 in his the last two years of his contract! While Price will be making $40 mil in each of those years…..Teheran will ONLY be making a combined $23 mil in those two years!
Again, either pay up and give Boston a legit shot to win The World Series in David Ortiz’s last year…OR…..at best, qualify for as a Wild Card…and waste David Price in The Wild Card Game….and even if Boston wins the WC game….they will have Steven Wright in Game 1 of the Division Series…and then have to throw two BUMS out there (Price wont be able to pitch until Game 4 of that Series..if it goes to a 4th game).
Teheran is really a difference maker. That’s why Atlanta is going to ask for a King’s Ransom….and if Boston really wants to make a serious run at The World Series….they will pay the Ransom….OR Atlanta will keep him.
A fair/reasonable trade offer isn’t the issue here. It’s about SUPPLY AND DEMAND. There’s simply no starting pitching on the market or in free agency after this season. Yet there is SERIOUS DEMAND for it by a number of playoff teams! Let the bidding begin!
southi
That appears to be for the most part a good assessment of the facts. It will take a huge payment for the Red Sox to acquire Teheran. They either pay it or the don’t get him. Simple as that.
paullentz1972
Thanks! Most of these MORONS couldn’t comprehend facts if their lives depended on it, lol!
Most of these Red Sox fans OVERRATE their prospects while making light of the talent others have that they are in DESPERATE NEED OF!
They don’t like that The Braves are in The Driver’s Seat here when it comes to Teheran! They want to resort to ‘uh, he’s not Kershaw/Fernandez/Price’…..’he cant pitch in The AL East’…..’he doesn’t strike out 15 batters a game’….anything to try to get a ‘steal of a deal’.
Well…I’m happy that current Braves Management knows the value of Julio Teheran AND the unique situation his contract, age, durability, health, talent AND the lack of available starting pitching BRINGS!
Either pay our price…or good luck making the playoffs with Price, Wright and A BUNCH OF BUMS trying to pitch 3 out of every 5 days!
Jeff Todd
Please stop calling people morons.
paullentz1972
Jeff, I cant help it. Red Sox fans really overvalue their prospects while EXPECTING to trade their 3rd tier TRASH prospects for our gold ace in Julio Teheran!
kster224488k
Well they are morons…moronic morons..morons so stupid they should be given a special moniker like moronies of the heathen morons special moron, or possibly king of the morons..or we can just be PC like you and live in fear of offending someone and call them Purified Yankee Boston morons, or possibly King if the morons will suffice…regardless crawl back in your thin skin PC hole..you are what’s wrong with everything ,everywhere, anyone, anytime, any place sorta person aren’t? Now beg me not to be a big old meanie head like you’d talk to a 2nd grader
staypuft
You must be new to the Internet. Fans of all teams propose unfair trades, nothing new to see there.
jvjc1233
In another sense, a lot of Braves fans are delusional on what the return could be. One guy on here a week ago said that Moncada then one of Benintendi/Devers and Swihart/Owens would “get the conversation started.” The Braves aren’t getting the Red Sox 2 top prospects
jvjc1233
And two other promising young players
Sam.rhodes16
It’s unreasonable to suggest that the braves won’t get a return of at least moncada, benentendi, and more if they move Teheran at all. It WILL be an overpay if he moved because of his team-friendly contract and his ace-like performance since the second half of 2015 and his career until 2015, when he toyed with a sinker during the first half of 2015.
The more wouldn’t be someone big like Espinoza or devers, but it would be a couple of prospects like chavis or ockimey.
paullentz1972
Then guess what? Boston Isnt getting Teheran! They either will pay DEARLY in prospects for a young pitcher who is durable, healthy, talented with a CHEAP CONTRACT for the next 4 1/2 years….or we keep him! Simple as that!
Good luck making the playoffs with Price, Wright and A BUNCH OF BUMS in the rotation! There is simply no quality starting pitching that you want to start a playoff series…on the market…NOR in upcoming free agency!
Supply and demand baby! We have Teheran…who teams itching to make a run in the playoffs really want! Pay up…or we keep him/build our rotation around him. Really dude…why would we trade him..UNLESS we were OVERWHELMED with an offer for him? He’s pitching great, is affordable, is healthy. Yet people like you think we should just GIVE HIM AWAY for 2nd tier prospects?
Whatever SLING BLADE!
braves2
Just like they didn’t get the angels 2 best…wait..
bravobravo
Big difference between Red Sox best 2 and the Angels best 2 prospects
kster224488k
That’s what Teheran is worth..pay up or shut up
dan-9
No he isn’t, as you well know. You may apologize now and stop acting like a child.
Michael Macaulay-Birks
I’m a Red Sox fan and I would be OK with one of our top 4…but it’s not going to be Moncada or Benni….there’s enough meat on the bone in Boston farm system to do a deal
Sam.rhodes16
It’s a no deal without one or both, which the braves are fine with atm
dan-9
No they really aren’t. Stop being delusional thanks
stymeedone
I’m not sure Atlanta would want Moncada’s contract.
vtncsc
I’d say it’ll be one top 4, and probably in the #1 or #2 range, and another top 10. Then a few fillers in. That’s just for Teheran, if you throw in Viscaino as well, the price goes higher.
Atlanta has no need to sell. Both are affordable and doing well. So yeah, probably a more robust Fleecing, topping the Dbacks one.
paullentz1972
Dude….you are NUTZ if you think we’re giving you guys Teheran for your 2nd tier prospects! He has a HELLA CHEAP CONTRACT ($41 mil over the next 4 1/2 years) during his ages 25-29 years (his prime). He would help solidify your rotation AND save your bullpen…and help you in the playoffs…..and be a mainstay in your rotation on a CHEAP contract for the next 4 1/2 years….YET…you want to give us your BS prospects that are YEARS away from possibly helping out my Braves.
SCREW THAT! I’d rather keep Teheran…and build our rotation around him. He’s our ace…he’s HELLA AFFORDABLE! Good luck outbidding the Yankees in 2018 when Price opts out of his contract and demands $40 mil a year (while Teheran will be making $8 mil in 2018…$11 mil in 2019..and a team option $12 mil in 2020). The Yankees will have a lot of contracts coming off after 2017…and will be happy to go after Price!
Yet MORONS like you really think that you can get Teheran and his affordable contract for BS fringe prospects! NO WAY!
Either give us Moncada, Bentenditi, Swihard/Devers AND Espinoza…OR no deal! It’s about SUPPLY AND DEMAND….NOT fair/reasonable trade offer!
bravobravo
I love your passion my brother and agree with you on how good, young and affordable Teheran is and I also want the Braves to get a good haul and I also agree with supply and demand, but even I think that is a little too much for just Teheran. Love the enthusiasm and passion though
Also, I’m trying to sit here and figure out who Sling Blade is. Who is Sling Blade that you keep referring to?
paullentz1972
Google “Sling Blade” (Billy Bob Thornton played him in a movie..won an Oscar for his role in it)…then you’ll understand why I call some of these MORONS “Sling Blade’, lol!
But seriously….I recognize that the price I’ve proposed for Teheran is STEEP….however it should be….given the combination of Teheran’s age, talent, durability, health, cheap contract AND the lack of available starting pitching!
We are fine either way….we either get a King’s Ransom for Teheran..OR…we keep him for the next 4 1/2 years on a CHEAP CONTRACT and build our rotation around him! However…Boston either pays our Ransom…OR…they WILL NOT make the playoffs (there Is NO WAY they make the playoffs with Price, Wright and the BUMS they are throwing out there 3 out of every 5 days)! Given how much money Boston has spent this year…given that this is Ortiz’s last year….given that they have a good offense and defense (except for Hanley’s defense at 1st, lol)…..given that they have already wasted $250 MILLION on Runsey Castillo, Panda and Hanley Ramirez…..I feel Boston has little choice but to pay the Braves The King’s Ransom I proposed!
HGehlken
Teheran/Vizcaino for Benintendi/Devers.
Sam.rhodes16
Add moncada and Espinoza! Then we could have a realistic deal. Till then you’re just being absurd about player values.
paullentz1972
Agree! NO WAY would I trade Teheran to Boston WITHOUT getting Benintendi, Devers, Moncada AND either Espinoza OR Swihart!
The Braves (nor any other team) will probably NEVER have a situation like this to get a King’s Ransom for a player of Teheran’s caliber who has a CHEAP CONTRACT like this……and be in a win/win situation if they either trade him or keep him IF they don’t get the right offer.
The Braves DO NOT have to trade Teheran! It isn’t like he’s making OVER $100 MILLION and the Braves are pressed to lower payroll! He’s our ace…and HELLA AFFORDABLE for the next 4 1/2 years! However…even so…IF we can get the right haul like I’ve proposed for Teheran…then we have enough young, talented pitching in The Minors that we’d be FOOLS for not acquiring the talent that will help us at 3rd, catcher and the outfield!
Teheran is a sure thing (both for this year and the next 4 1/2 years) AND CHEAP! While all 4 of the prospects that Boston has that I’m demanding LOOK GOOD on paper….prospects are far from a sure thing (wasn’t Shea Hillenbrand supposed to be a perennial All-Star/the next Wade Boggs? That’s why spreading out the risk is important. Just look at what we got back for Shelby Miller: Aaron Blair, while highly touted…has STRUGGLED Big Time in both of his call-ups this year! While I’m hopeful that he straightens things out in Triple A and comes back living up what he’s been advertised as being (a #2/#3 starter type)……I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t pan out. That’s why we needed to ALSO get back Ender Incierate AND Dansby Swanson in the trade! Miller was a proven starter…..while Ender is an up and coming outfielder with skills and Swanson was the #1 pick in the draft with upside!
Most people (especially Red Sox fans) harbor unreal expectations when it comes to the potential of all their prospects. I keep hearing about how they gave up Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson. However, Boston also got Derek Lowe AND Jason Vartiek for Heathcliff Slocumb! One bad trade…however one GREAT TRADE (that helped them win MULTIPLE World Series!
Now they have a chance to make a WIN WIN trade (both Atlanta and Boston winning) where Boston can seriously compete for a World Series this year…and in future years with Teheran…..while paying an expensive price in prospects (who are not guaranteed to pan out…but even if they do….they can always sign more in the future….but can they LIVE WITH giving up winning a possible World Series…especially on a loaded offensive team in David Ortiz’s last year)?
dan-9
Enjoy wallowing in the gutter for the next five years.
BadCo
Gee anouther Arizona type fleecing?
Gogerty
Everyone says they “cannot wait for (each) team’s fan base….” I can’t wait until a trade happens or Aug 1 deadline hits. We all know Teheran “Isn’t Sale,” “Is an ace,” “Not an Ace” and that “Benintendi, Moncada, Devers, Eapinoza, Betts,” and every other Boston starter and prospect is due for the HOF.
No one here has guessed every trade down to every detail 100%. All players are only worth what the accepting GM thinks.
Love the Braves and love this site, but man the comments are laughable and expected.
riexpress
Devers, Swihart, Kopech. Throw in Viz and we can add to it
chieftoto
riexpress: my goodness, that’s a joke.
Sam.rhodes16
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. Unless the deal is something like
Braves send to Boston
Teheran, Viz
Boston send to Braves
Moncada, Benentendi, Shaw/Devers, and some pitching prospect
The deal won’t be worth it. You have a guy on an insanely team friendly deal pitching like an ace. He’s always outpitched his peripherals, so one would reasonably expect that to continue.
Yes, that is an overpay, but it will take that level of deal for Teheran to change jerseys. Otherwise, keep him
southi
The only way that Teheran gets dealt is with an insane overpay. But if a team wants to improve their starting pitching then that is what it will take.
dan-9
No, you wouldn’t “reasonably expect that to continue”. Yes, once in a long while a pitcher will come along who outpitches his peripherals for his whole career, but the far, far more common scenario is that he regresses to those peripherals. Odds are against Teheran being the 1 in 100 to beat the odds. He’s a #2 starter at best.
Sam.rhodes16
And that will be the return if he is moved. He’s beat his peripherals his entire career with the exception of the first half of 2015 where he toyed with a sinker during an obviously lost season.
bravobravo
Thank you for saying he is a #2. You get my respect for realizing that. Instead of saying that he is a #3 or #4 at best
bravobravo
Thank you for saying he is a #2. You get my respect for realizing that. Instead of saying that he is a #3 or #4 at best.
He has out pitched his peripherals every year. He is pitching better this year and nothing he’s done has shown me that he will regress and starting pitching to his peripherals. He is getting better. That’s all their is to it. I was watching him yesterday and he pitched just as good if not better than Degrom, but FIP would have you thinking that Degrom did so much better and was just carving up Atl lineup and Teheran was struggling and getting lucky. When it was the other way around on the part of Teheran. Both pitchers pitched great and there weren’t many stressful innings for neither pitcher, but especially for Teheran. I think he had one stressful inning which was his last (if you can even call that a stressful inning). I just don’t believe FIP is always accurate on every pitcher, especially fly ball pitchers
olereb
I agree 100 percent, as I have stated before sox fans just don’t get it, unless they get some sp they might be in playoffs but they will not be there long
One Fan
Why do you assume he will continue to outpitch his peripherals? I would assume the opposite
bravobravo
Why do you assume that he won’t? He has so far in his career. Why do you assume that he can’t get better than he is now? He is only 25 and gets better every year (besides the first half of 2015). Why can’t people assume that he will out pitch his peripherals like he has his entire career so far and assume he will get better just like you assume that he won’t?
therealryan
Actually history tells us that he will not continue to out pitch his FIP anywhere near his current levels. History also tells us that it’s reasonable to expect him to take a step back over the next several years.
bravobravo
Teherans history tells us he could. He has out pitched his FIP each year. Pitchers do make adjustments when they get more experience. He could get better. A lot of things could happen, but his history tells us that he could out pitch FIP the next several years like he has done so far
therealryan
Over the past 25 years, here’s a list of pitchers who have thrown at least 600 innings (Teheran has 739 IP) through age 25 (Teheran’s current age) and have out pitched their FIP by at least 0.40 runs (Teheran 0.57 runs)
Wilson Alvarez
Barry Zito
Julio Teheran
Carlos Zambrano
Jair Jurrjens
Shelby Miller
Jon Garland
Ismael Valdez
Mike Mussina
Johnny Cueto
Trevor Cahill
Not including Teheran, Miller and Jurrjens, these pitchers through age 25 had an average ERA of 3.61 and 4.16 FIP. From age 26-28, these same pitchers had an average ERA of 4.07 and 4.17 FIP. With the exception of Johnny Cueto, they all had higher ERAs from 26-28 and 2/3 of them had ERAs higher from age 26-28 than their FIPs were under 25.
History doesn’t support Teheran being a Cy Young candidate over the next few years, it supports him being more of a 3.60-3.80 ERA pitcher.
Michael Macaulay-Birks
Which is better then what Boston has now, I’m a Red Sox fan, and I obviously don’t want to see us get fleeced but they’re going to have to pick up a pitcher sooner or later…to be honest I’d rather see them make a run at Sonny Gray if we’re talking about our top four prospects
therealryan
Don’t get me wrong, Teheran makes Boston better. A 3.90-4.00 ERA pitcher who throws 190+ innings has value, especially at his current contract, and that is what I expect Teheran to be if he goes to the Red Sox. It’s just Braves fans want to value him as a once in a generation pitcher who can continually out pace his peripherals like he has so far. While everyone else wants to value him closer to what his FIP predicts, like every other pitcher who has had similar luck to start their careers has ended up.
Personally, the Red Sox are my least liked team and I hope they trade Moncada, Bene, Devers and Espinosa for a solid #3. I just don’t think they or any other team outside of Arizona will do that.
paullentz1972
Dude, in most normal circumstances…I agree with your accessment of what’s “fair’ for Julio Teheran!
However, given the circumstances surrounding Teheran, his contract, the lack of quality starting pitching on the market AND in upcoming free agency…AND Boston’s desire to take advantage of competing for a World Series with this offense, good defense and David Ortiz’s last year (they simply have NO CHANCE with Price, Wright and THE PLETHORA OF BUMS they are throwing out there 3 out of every 5 games….taxing their bullpen in the process).
Acquiring Teheran SOLIDIFYS their rotation….helps alleviate their bullpen’s burden. He doesn’t have to be a #1 starter! With his stuff AND with Boston’s defense and offense…..all he needs to do is go 7=8 innings a night…give up 2-3 runs a game (heck, he could probably give up 3-4 runs a game on most nights…as long as he’s going DEEP in games, saving Boston’s bullpen..which he is capable of going)…and he will SERIOUSLY HELP Boston’s chances of competing for a World Series not only this year…but for the next 4 1/2 years.
His contract would allow Boston to afford paying Price when he opts out in 2 years…..when The Yankees will surely try to outbid Boston for him. Price will surely get at least $40 miil a year when he opts out (unless he gets hurt before then). Given that Teheran will be making $8 mil in 2018….$11 mil in 2019…and a team option $12 mil in 2020…..it would ease having to pay Price $40 mil after he opts out!
I’m right in this! Atlanta knows that…Boston knows this. However most fans simply are TOO STUPID to comprehend this, lol!
steelerbravenation
I totally flipped on Teheran I went from putting out trade scenarios for probably a dozen teams. Now I hope and pray he doesn’t get traded at all. These stat geeks can claim his advanced metrics are not gonna sustain what he has been doing but I don’t care I want him to lead our staff thru the rebuild. The Braves gotta lot of money comin off the books a couple free agent signings and maybe a trade or 2 and we can be competitive for the wild cards at least. I believe Tyler Flowers has had a great impact on him this year. A.J. damn near ruined him last year.
These guys been playing hard and I see them passin the Phillies, Padres, Reds and Brewers before the year is out and our top position prospects are not even up yet.
young8921
Julio’s value will never be higher than it is now. The Braves should get the best return on him now while they can. Some club that is in contention for the playoffs is going to make a desperate attempt to add a quality starter and end up having to overpay to get him.
steelerbravenation
We agree to disagree time to start turning the corner on this rebuild. Next year competitive and 2018 making a run at the division.
Blue_Painted_Dreams_LA
Is it truly desperate if the farm is loaded and a team is a piece or two away? Overpay would then be relative. But no I agree the braves have holes to fill and it could help significantly.
yeage004
Teheran for Swihart Devers Ball Ramos
Sam.rhodes16
Need another big prospect to pair with devers imo
Brixton
I think this is actually a very good offer. Teheran isn’t Hamels, he isn’t going to require 3 really good young players. Swihart and Devers is a great offer.
chuckn9ne
I agree I think this is the fairest deal anyone has mentioned. I think maybe it’s tilted a little towards the Red Sox imo but not by much
sevans36
Not really, swihart prob can’t stick at catcher, devers is way off, ball had not impressed. Starting pitching is more expensive than you think. Teheran is not hamels but he is a solid 2/3 type pitcher,
Sam.rhodes16
He is easily a 2. That’s not up for debate at this point. The only question is if he will remain a 2 or become a low-mid 1
chieftoto
Nope… ATL would hang up without another word. Keep in mind they have no problem keeping him. For you braves fans, don’t expect Yoan Moncada, because that is delusional, but Beni, Espinoza and Roudes would be ATL’s “okay” for just Teheran. Not saying he is worth that, but ATL is more than fine with keeping him. I personally think they will trade Viz and keep Teheran (because no team will give them what they want). Cool, I’m out.
Sam.rhodes16
It’s moncada, benentendi, and two more prospects coming back or the braves walk away. Either option is fine with me, as Teheran is proving each start that he’s better than anything the sox have on hand.
paullentz1972
Hamels is making three times the money that Teheran is making…in less years, lol! Teheran is HELLA VALUABLE because he’s in his prime AND his contract is HELLA CHEAP!
Either pay a King’s Ransom to have a really good pitcher whose never been on The DL only $41 mil in the next 4 1/2 years during his age 25-29 seasons (his prime)…or we keep him. Simple as that! Good luck making the playoffs without him Boston!
tribe fan
I agree, good offer. The Sox I don’t think will move Moncada or Espinosa. I think they have extremely high hopes on both and with their pitching being so light throughout the system I just don’t think it makes sense to move your highest ceiling starter. Owens might be another guy to watch in these talks alongside Devers and a couple other B list prospects
olereb
No, has to include one of the top 2
olereb
Swihart is an American League player,
mwmenterprise
Teheran and Viz… we start with Mookie and go from there. You have to give to get
Connorsoxfan
Lol!
aff10
Betts is about as close to untouchable as you can get. He’s not going anywhere. Not a Red Sox fan, but contending teams don’t trade their second-best player for a lesser pitcher, especially not when they have the farm system to acquire him anyways without trading from the ML roster
Chris815
Braves are not going to I be competitive come next year they are 2 years away . To many holes they need two outfields .3b and catch starter right now in flux , Tehran is ace , wisler is coming , Gant has shown flashes , the rest are not there yet . But another year from now they will be. The bull pen going forth has promise come next year but there mostly questions . This is coming from long time brave fan. And for all you on here that say Tehran is not worth top prospect . What you don’t get is . He worth what ever brave will take to get him. And when you add he is 25 , under team friendly contract and as of right now he is the best pitcher in the market , because market dictates the value not what you conceive his value is . And Florida is not trading Fernandez , white sox not trading sale, right now A’s are not putting gray in the market and mets have never said they will ever put any of there 5 young team friendly pitcher on the market . So when you look at the truth . Tehran is best pitcher in the market. Which when you look at the other teams that mite be looking for starting pitching .they will have to compete for his servers . And when you add in fact that come this summer and you look at free agents .He is 10 time better value and better pitcher and fact he will be a lot younger the any of them. And if look at it right now the team that will be look for starters , you will mostly likely see these team involve in serves Dodgers , Rangers, O,s ,Yankees, Red Sox, cardinals , Royals, white sox , Houston , mariners, pirates , even maybe Giants and this summer you will see more team will be in the mix. So longer it goes more teams will be involve. So rather they decide to trade him now it this off season or not . They will get what they want . Because at end of the day it is a supply and demand. The Braves have the l
Brixton
I don’t really want to read through your gibberish, but I’ll just say this. Teheran is not an ace. Never was, never is. His velocity is down a ton and he gives up a ton of homers.
chieftoto
He hit 97 during his start last week. Velo ain’t down and he is an ace.
vtncsc
He’s an ace for Atlanta. He’s a #2 on a light team, #3 on any other team. His velocity isn’t down, and he’s durable. He’ll fetch a haul.
Gogerty
I wish more Atlanta fans or at least more that comment would see that. I love the Braves and Julio, but that is exactly what I have been saying all year. I am glad that Teheran, Norris, and Aybar have rebounded from their rough starts.
bravobravo
You didn’t say “never will be.” So their is a chance. Anyways, I’ve seen him hit 95 many times this year. Have you ever thought that maybe he isn’t throwing 95 everytime because he learned how to pitch and learned that you don’t have to throw your hardest for every pitch. You can get batters out with a good located 92 mph fastball. Maybe he takes a little off so he can command and control better. Lets just act like that isn’t a possibility. You do know that pitchers do eventually learn how to pitch and they learn they don’t have to go max effort all the time. I’m sure when Jose Fernandez and Thor learns that they don’t have to throw 98-100 mph each time and they start averaging 94-95 mph, you’ll be on here saying “his velocity is down.” The man is 25 years old. You act like he can’t get any better. Geez these comments are hilarious
Brixton
His average FB velocity is 90.8, so the fact he used to throw 95 is a bit concerning. Other teams are gonna take notice of that. On top of that, His career FIP is approaching 4, and he’s a fly ball pitcher. Expecting Moncada and Benintendi for him is way to much, that is all I’m saying. He isn’t bad, but the flags are there.
bravobravo
Those flags that you’re talking about (FIP) have always been there. He has always out pitched his FIP and his peripherals. I’m not sitting here and saying he is an ace. He isn’t. He is the Braves ace. I watched him pitch yesterday and he was sitting 92-93 all day. Hit 95 a few times. All I’m saying is it is possible that he learned how to pitch and get hitters out with 92 instead of maxing out everytime. I’m not sitting here asking for Moncada, Benitendi, Devers and 3 other pieces. That’s not realistic. But he is going to command a pretty good haul. That you can’t deny
Brixton
His FIP has always been high because he has always had great defenders (Simmons, BJUpton, Heyward, Smith, Inciarte, etc) playing behind him. Having different players, even different elite defensive players are going to offset some of that.
Good haul, absolutely.
2 of their big four, not really. I don’t see Moncada being moved unless it is for Sale or Gray
MikePLV10
Just an FYI hit was at 92-93 mph in his last start through out the game and hit 94 multiple times..
Brixton
His average FB velocity has been 90.8 this year. Which is weird.
bravobravo
So you’re saying that if he got traded to Boston, JBJ, Betts, DP, Xander, Shaw and Holt (when he gets back) couldn’t do a good job defensively. That defense is better than what Atlanta has now lol. What are you talking about? Speaking of defense. I hardly call the defense behind him right now GOOD. He hasn’t had a good defense behind him this year and he is having his best year. Adonis at 3rd, Aybar at SS, Johnson and Peterson at 2nd, Markakis in right and Frenchy playing in the outfield. That’s a horrible defense and he continues to pitch well and out pitch his peripherals. Inciarte helps and Flowers calls a good game. That’s all he has. Mallex is taking his bumps in the bigs. I never said Moncada, but Benitendi is def in play for Teheran. He at least starts with Benitendi
Brixton
Ok, maybe the defense is a stretch, but FIP is a stat that any credible evaluater uses. No one is giving you Moncada and Benintendi for Teheran
bravobravo
Dude did I ever say that he is going to get Moncada and Benitendi? No. I said that he at least gets Benitendi. I never said he gets both. No way he gets both. I understand that every credible evaluator uses FIP, but let’s not act like FIP is totally accurate on every player. Teheran is a fly ball pitcher. FIP will never like him. It never has, but he continues to out pitch it.
thediesel4
Yep FIP the advance metric that has been around oh 10-15 years? That is based on what ifs, and woulda/shoulda/coulda’s. God do I love it when math gets heavily involved in a freaking sport.
Can you explain to me, exactly in detail, why his FIP is so high? Or do you just see it and not watch the game being played and make assumptions from that?
Chris815
All Leverage and other team have to down to them . Sorry to have to explain to you all
Chris815
So red sox fan rather you like it or not your sox will have to pay to it hurts to get Tehran because you not the only one that are or will be after him Sorry tell you this
start_wearing_purple
Any deal requires a meeting of the minds. Personally, I think the Sox probably should trade Benintendi for Teheran. But I keep hearing Braves fans saying it should be both him and Moncada. At that point I think the price is far too high for anyone who isn’t a true ace. So the simple fact of the matter is some times the best deal is walking away an accepting that the immediate future isn’t perfect.
Chris815
This goes to any other teams and there fans like Rangers , pirates, Dodgers
Brixton
“Dodgers , Rangers, O,s ,Yankees, Red Sox, cardinals , Royals, white sox , Houston , mariners, pirates , even maybe Giants”
Half these teams aren’t going to be involved, especially considering the Pirates and Yankees are likely sellers, the Orioles and Giants don’t have the pieces, and the Cardinals have never given up big prospects for anyone..
southi
I’d agree with you: the Pirates and Yankees are likely sellers, O’s and Giants don’t have the pieces, It doesn’t follow the Cardinals method of operation (and to be honest they don’t have near ready prospects either).
I’d also say the White Sox, Mariners, and even the Royals all have pretty thin farm systems when you look at what Coppy has publicly claimed he wanted.
That only leaves the Dodgers, Rangers, Red Sox, and Astros as likely spots for Teheran.
If I were the Braves I’d ask for the moon since they are under no obligation to deal Teheran. Unless one of those teams gets really desperate and is convinced that Teheran is the answer then he will remain a Brave for now.
osoblanco
I wouldn’t rule out the Yankees just yet. They won’t sell unless it’s absolutely necessary, and even then, they could be both buyers and sellers. They could sell Chapman as a rental for prospects, then they could easily go on a little win streak then offer a package of Judge and Sanchez to Coppy and see what happens.
chieftoto
Cardinals don’t have the prospects to get it done either.
Brixton
They have big league pieces and some prospects. If they buy into Diaz’s start (which they absolutely shouldn’t) they could always look to move Wong, or if they like Wong in center, they could move Piscotty or Grichuk.
Some combo of Weaver/Reyes/Flaherty would absolutely start a conversation as well.
adshadbolt
I find your evaluation of Benitendi completely off he already has developed powering may not be 30 homers but it’s at least 20 and he is not light hitting at all look at his numbers. And yes he isn’t a huge speed guy but he reads balls well in the outfield and I agree with his arm being weak but who cares the only position in the outfield that needs a strong arm is right field
Brixton
Here is my take:
I think Moncada is off the table. Like completely off. Not even in the conversation. Why? Because Boston wouldn’t talk Betts (their top prospect at the time) or Swihart (another top prospect) for Cole Hamels. Texas wouldn’t talk Maraza or Gallo. Hamels is better. I think people get confused by the fact that teams are reluctant to move their top prospect often are willing to move their next few best. In my opinion, The Red Sox should absolutely be willing to trade any prospect in their farm except Moncada. However, moving both of Benintendi and Devers for anyone short of a Gray, Sale or Cole isn’t going to happen. Beintendi and Devers alone mirror the prospects the Phillies got, and that was with the Phillies giving up a quality reliever and paying 40M of Hamels’ salary. I think the Braves could absolutely use a MLB-ready bat, but that isn’t going to take Devers out of conversations. The Braves are build for the long-haul, and having really all their positions except C and LF covered long term with at least 1 quality player really takes the complete need for a MLB-ready bat. Adding Moncada isn’t going to make this team contend much quicker than a package of Devers, Swihart and company.
And now to go all willy-nilly on you all, if you think you’re getting multiple of the Red Sox top 4 prospects for Julio Teheran, you’re crazy, and you’re also SOL because that ain’t happening.
Brixton
Too long.. different read version:
Moncada isn’t getting traded at all, and neither is Devers and Benintendi in the same package for Julio Teheran. A package consistanting of 2 of them plus other prospects would be a Gray/Sale/Cole conversation, not Teheran, who is a #3 starter.
bravobravo
He is pitching like a very good #2 and he is only 25, which means he has plenty of time to continue to improve and his contract gives you those prime years for cheap. I don’t think Benitendi, Kopech, Chavis and another piece is out of the realm of possibilities
MikePLV10
That’s funny Brixton! Last I checked Sale isn’t available and neither is Gray.. So yeah that’s pointless to say. Also, please look at Gray vs Teheran tradition pitching stats they are almost identical except for the length of time, since Teheran has pitch longer and is still younger.. Also Gray is not very good right now so I highly doubt the redsox are going to trade for a guy that isn’t going to be better than any of the pitchers in there rotation now.. (Not to say Gray won’t get healthy and back on track down the road)
Jon429
I agree with this, which is why I believe Teheran will stay a Brave for now. I do think he will get traded, The Braves have some glaring holes that need to be filled, but at the same time they don’t want to create a new one in the rotation by trading him too early.
I just feel that his value to Atlanta is greater than that of other clubs pushing for a WS title right now. But who knows, Dombrowski loves to make big deals…
vtncsc
I think LF will be taken care of in the off season, and I’ll go ahead and say Bautista will be playing LF for Atlanta in Sun Trust Park. They’ll overpay, but they’ll need a “wow” signing.
I’m not sure who plays more, Mallex or Ender but one of them does with Markakis in RF.
Personally, I’d like to see Atlanta keep Teheran and Viscaino unless they are simply blown away by an offer from Boston (a top 2, another top 10 and some fillers.)
Salionski
Personally I think there is zero chance of Atlanta signing Bautista. Bautista isn’t a Coppy type signing. Maybe if Wren was still in, but I doubt even he would if he was still in Atlanta.
Considering the overpay that will end up happening for Bautista there is very little chance that he ends up meeting the value of the contract. While the Braves will have enhanced finances starting next year they still won’t be unrestricted enough to make signings that risky..
southi
Yep maybe 1% chance at the most that the Braves sign Bautista. He isn’t their type of player in more ways that one. I actually think based on the teams current needs (which can change based on trades and development) the most likely player the Braves pursue this off season will be Martin Prado. His versatility, his club house presence, and his tools make him useful as a fill in starter at third (a possible upgrade over Garcia) and if someone develops a super utility player who the Braves would trust mentoring their middle infielders (think Albies, Swanson, even Peterson). They might even pay Prado slightly more than market value if he’d accept only a two or three year contract.
Of course things can change.
Gogerty
I agree Southi, I have been saying the same thing about Prado, would love to have him back. And agreed to Bautista, do not see that happening, nor should it.
Thought of Josh Reddick entered my mind, but age, contract expectations, and health just screams Melvin Upton mistake all over again. Your thoughts?
thediesel4
Ya know I did this in the Show and he completely flopped with me in a pitcher friendly park and against better competition. haha
Michael Macaulay-Birks
He told the Blue Jays he wanted 5 years and 150,000,00, I doubt he would give a discount to a team that has virtually no chance of winning anything anytime soon, plus why would you want him, he’s like 35 isn’t he?
paullentz1972
Dude…what you seem to forget that makes Teheran SO VALUABLE..is his contract (Hamels had over a $100 mil contract). Teheran is ONLY making $41 mil over the next 4 1/2 years! That is HELLA CHEAP for a pitcher who will be in his PRIME (age 25-29). If Teheran was a free agent after this season…he would SURELY get well in excess $150 mil contract! Easy!
So knowing that…that’s why the price for Teheran will be a KING’S RANSOM! Yes, either Boston ponies up their top 4 prospects for Teheran..or NO DEAL! I’ll GLADLY keep Teheran and build our rotation around him AND his cheap contract!
aff10
He’s a solid #2 starter on a great value contract. I’m more optimistic than most non-Braves fans in what they can get for him, but all 4 of their top prospects (all top 34 overall on MLB.com? No chance
bravobravo
Agree
dan-9
It’s hilarious how miserable you’ll be for the next five years.
eturner0601
Who has reached out to who ? Wasn’t it the Sox reaching out to the Braves, not the Braves reaching out to the Sox?
1. The Sox are desperate for frontline starting pitching.
2. There is very, very little frontline starting pitching AVAILABLE!
3. If a team desperately needs frontline starting pitching either this season or during the off season, they will have to pay heavily.
It amazes me that some Boston fans are attempting to disparage Teheran even though their starting pitching is in a state of turmoil.
With the way he is pitching now, he would be no lower than a #2 starter. This is all about supply and demand, and this is a seller’s market! The Braves are not pushing this issue. Boston or whatever teams that need quality, controllable pitching are.
paullentz1972
Well Said Dude! Most of these MORONIC Red Sox fans couldn’t comprehend your facts if it hit them in the face, lol!
They keep trying to pitch ‘what’s fair/reasonable’……keep saying that Teheran isn’t in the class of Kershaw, Fernandez, Sale, etc. They are trying to see things for how they wish/want them to be….NOT for what they are!
You clearly pointed out that SUPPLY and Demand…ALONG…with Teheran’s talent, age, durability, health AND cheap contract…..are what is driving the price for Teheran up!
Atlanta can keep Teheran and be JUST FINE continuing to build our rotation around him for the next 4 1/2 years in his age 25-29 PRIME YEARS! However….can Boston afford to pass up a chance to legitimately compete for a World Series THIS YEAR by acquiring Teheran (who would solidify their rotation AND help save their bullpen…both this year and for the next 4 1/2 years)? If Boston doesn’t trade for Teheran…they HAVE NO CHANCE…given that GARBAGE they are throwing out there 3 out of every 5 games, lol! Their bullpen would be slaughtered by August, lol!
wiseman
you guys are doing like gray is pitching better than teheran if boston dont give 1 of the top 4 prospect forget braves will trade him
braves2
I just don’t see the Braves trading Teheran without getting a proven mlb player
thediesel4
To all those saying they should only do this for Gray/Sale/bla bla type player and not Julio,
Here is Mr. Gray
baseball-reference.com/players/g/grayso01.shtml
Here is Julio
baseball-reference.com/players/t/teherju01.shtml
please give me logical excuse how one is better than the other. Not only that but how are you going to give me the bs excuse of pitching below his FIP when Grey does the same.
MikePLV10
^ thediesel4, you have to mic drop that! Nice
Strauss
Williams and the white sox suck!