Athletics righty Chris Bassitt is scheduled to undergo Tommy John surgery tomorrow, the club announced (h/t to MLB.com’s Jane Lee, on Twitter). That had seemed the likely result, though player and team were holding out hope of avoiding a full replacement of his ulnar collateral ligament.
Bassitt, who came to Oakland as part of the Jeff Samardzija swap, had a promising campaign in 2015. Over 86 innings, working mostly from the rotation, Bassitt pitched to a 3.56 ERA with 6.7 K/9 against 3.1 BB/9 to go with a 44.5% groundball rate. While he may have been a bit fortunate to allow only a 5.7% HR/FB rate, the overall results had Bassitt’s stock trending up.
Things didn’t break right this year, however. He allowed nine walks in 19 1/3 spring innings, but had three solid outings to open the regular season. But Bassitt was knocked around in his final two starts, allowing 13 earned runs on 19 hits and five walks in just 8 2/3 frames. A velocity drop in his most recent appearance, along with other issues Bassitt experienced, led to a closer look and the diagnosis of a UCL tear.
Entering the season, Bassitt had a very slightly elevated statistical risk of needing a TJ procedure, according to the research of MLBTR contributor Bradley Woodrum. Certainly, nothing about his situation raised any obvious red flags. But as Woodrum explains, the numbers paint nothing approaching a complete picture of the true risk, and obviously any pitcher can end up needing a new UCL.
Fortunately for Oakland, there is a good bit of rotation depth on hand. Top prospect Sean Manaea looks set to receive a lengthy trial, righty Jesse Hahn is now back in the majors, and Henderson Alvarez is on the mend from shoulder surgery.
Does anybody know the Tommy John surgery rate in Japan league? Curious if maybe the bigger ball that we use makes a difference or just overuse causes the problem. Overuse doesn’t make sense growing up watching starters pitching 8-9 inning outings. 100 pitches you thought your pitcher was just hitting his groove in the game.
Look at average velocity from the 90’s to now
I never pitched so just would like to see the number of TJ surgeries go down instead of worse to younger and younger pitchers. Are coaches teaching a different arm slot that allows higher velocity and more strain on tendons? Or is it a product of kids that have grown up eating foods with growth hormones and as steroids do to muscles eventually make them fail? Although I get its not like taking steroids but have to admit athletes are bigger than ever in all sports. MLB needs to look at this problem before its common for high school kids getting the surgery. It really sucks that you can’t plan on having your full pitching staff together for a whole season anymore just waiting for one of your pitchers to go down. Then if it’s a young prospect you don’t get to see them for a year and a half or two before they get back to where they were.
Two other fast-rising guys in the Oakland system to keep an eye on you could add to that depth list: Daniel Mengden and Dillon Overton. Both are very, very close to the bigs.
That is #3 for the A’s this year. 2 more and they have a starting staff of TJS.
Ok