The impact of the qualifying offer remains a hot topic around baseball, and it’s hard to deny the effects on several veterans this winter. In many ways, the biggest difficulty faced may not just be a pure reduction in price, but the alteration of the market development for players saddled with draft pick compensation.
Ultimately, there were bargains to be found late in the winter. That’s exemplified, perhaps, by the experiences of the last three QO-bound position players to sign this offseason: Howie Kendrick, Dexter Fowler, and Ian Desmond. All had reasonable expectations of significant, multi-year deals, but it did not work out that way in practice.
Kendrick ultimately went back to the Dodgers for two years and $20MM. He was something of a luxury for a club that already had numerous options installed in the infield, but space was created when the price dropped.
At one point, Fowler seemed ticketed for the Orioles on a three-year pact, but ultimately returned to the Cubs on a $13MM guarantee. As with Kendrick, Fowler was an opportunistic re-addition for the team that had originally extended him the qualifying offer.
As for Desmond, things shaped up in an even more curious way. He sat back as players with lesser recent stat lines, such as Alexei Ramirez and Asdrubal Cabrera, inked deals with clubs willing to install them as regular shortstops. Desmond ultimately settled for just $8MM on a one-year term to play the outfield for the Rangers.
Texas also gave up the 19th overall draft pick in the Desmond transaction. Los Angeles and Chicago, meanwhile, sacrificed the ability to obtain compensation. Of course, all of those teams will have a chance to cash in an additional draft choice if they extend qualifying offers to these players when their deals expire.
So, we’ll pose the following question to MLBTR’s readers: which of these deals represents the best late-breaking investment for these teams?
Well, since Fowler returned to the Cubs for 2.8 million less than they originally offered(QO) I’d say they did quite well. Desmond is going to play a position he’s never played, that could go sideways easily, and by the time you factor in the 19th pick and the money associated with that pick, I’m not sure that’s as great of a deal as it may appear. Kendrick is an aging second baseman who’s defence seems to be starting to decline, and therefore, I wouldn’t of given up a first round pick either for him, as he’s more of a short term stop gap type signing IMO.
The great thing in baseball is, you just never know how things will play out, I wish all the players a great season.
best for who? the mlb team or the player. question needs clarifying.
I agree, that is how a lot of these polls are posted. Very general question. You could almost split this poll in to 3 more specific ones.
Todd Frazier might be the correct answer to another question, but not this one. Had he been a free agent who received a QO,, and resigned with the Reds, you might have an argument. But none of those things were the case.
All things equal I would have voted for Desmond. He would have been the best bargain had he signed with a team to play SS or 3B, But since he’s scheduled for LF I have to go with Fowler.
Frazier was part of a three team trade. He wasn’t signed or offered a QO because he is already under contact. Frazier is going to have a big year on the southside, however.
i’m your opinion is a very good, well reasoned one… i’m just not entirely sure which thread you posted it on
Frazier wasn’t signed as a free agent, didn’t have a QO attached to him, and wasn’t a late off-season pick-up… so, um, what does he have to do with this particular story?
I think a better poll would be, which player agent, has failed to grasp the QO system the most, and screwed their client/s and themselves, out of millions. Seems nobody learned anything from Boras’s learning experiences last year, he didn’t make the same mistakes this year.
The Cubs definitely got the best deal,…Flower says he was “following his heart” but Epstein sure wasn’t. Wow. He and his incompetent agent screwed themselves out of millions..
I think Dexter was following his heart. He could have had double the money from the O’s. Anyway, chances are he won’t receive a QO next fall and he’ll be able to get a better contract because of the weaker FA class.
Bottom line is unless you are a premium player who can command a multi-year deal with an AAV worth more than the one year QO, then you’re better off taking the QO and doing work… . . . . . then see where you’re at next year. Hey, at $15M, the QO ain’t nothin’ to be ashamed of . . . !
To be honest I was surprised that Fowler didn’t get a better offer than he did. I was understand why both Kendrick and Desmond were given qualifying offers but I was shocked when both turned them down. The normal high spending teams weren’t looking for expensive free agents with question marks and there wasn’t a huge market for middle infielders in general.
Except when a few zealous owners get involved the system over time works. The qualifying offer system has helped reduce salaries of free agents somewhat. It has helped smaller market teams losing free agents with the compensation picks (which aren’t sure fire successes and take time to develop). Players and teams are starting to weigh their decisions involving QO’s more in depth. To me that in and of itself shows it has at least some merits.
Desmond and Fowler have question marks surrounding their defense; Kendrick is a solid defender with a bat that may be good or may be just average. While in stretches both of the aforementioned players crush pitching, I sure wouldn’t want to be the team stuck with them when cold. Desmond, in particular, has been cold pretty much for two seasons.
The Rangers 2 left fielders had contract offers totaling $234M. They are paying those two players a combined $8M.
I have to say Desmond was the biggest surprise. Getting $99M less than what he was offered 15 months ago is crazy. But then again him turning down $107M is even crazier.
I’m surprised the voting is this close. There should be little doubt that Dexter Fowler was the best late qualifying offer bound player signed. I can only attribute Ian Desmond being as close as he is to Kool-Aid drinking Rangers fans or bitter Cardinals supporters who couldn’t bring themselves to vote for another Cubs free agent addition that made their division rivals even stronger after they had already “stolen” two key ones from them earlier this offseason.
The irony is the poll would have looked much different and with a disparate outcome had Desmond signed a similar contract with a more fitting team, the Chicago White Sox. The truth is, no club claiming to be a contender in 2016 needed a starting shortstop as badly as the White Sox and no starting SS needed a team as badly as the White Sox this season to rebuild his value for next offseason’s free agent market.
Dexter Fowler is 2.1 wins above average for his career, Desmond is 3.7 wins above average for his career. A lot is being made of last year, but Desmond had a .787 ops in the second half and still put up positive defense despite his usual terrible April. He was a shade below average, but is he actually worse than Peralta who got 4/53 two years ago? 1/8 for that is not kool-aid, it’s a bargain,
1-I voted for Dexter Fowler in this poll because he returns to his accustomed role as the Cubs lead-off hitter and center fielder which also serves to improve an already formidable Cubs team and lineup. He also re-signed with the only team that technically did not have to forfeit a draft choice in signing him this offseason. Desmond will be manning a new position and doing so with a new club in an unfamiliar league to boot. His impact on the Rangers in the field and their lineup is less clear. He also cost the Rangers their #19 first round June draft pick, making his one year contract even more of a gamble.
2-I consider Fowler and Desmond both fine MLB players, each still very much in the prime years of their respective careers. I also had favored a Fowler return to the Cubs all offseason provided he would be amenable to a short term contract with guaranteed money of two years or less, which did occur. I also supported the same scenario with Desmond and the White Sox this offseason, which should have happened to the benefit of both the team and player but did not.
3-I had Desmond winning a hypothetical poll question only had he signed with the White Sox, where he could have remained at his only MLB position while potentially still amassing those statistics you mentioned instead of signing with the Rangers where even his career numbers might be less formidable as a left fielder…metrics I have personally been pointing out all winter in his defense should he remain at his natural shortstop position in 2016. It would be hard to fathom his career 3.7 WAR as impacting in LF as at shortstop, especially since that metric was exclusively produced at that position. Had he been in LF all his career, his WAR would have been different, necessarily so in regard to his dWAR. Thanks for inadvertently defending my stance on Desmond. (lol)