2:04pm: The Padres are getting calls from other teams but aren’t in active trade talks about Shields or any other big-name veterans at this time, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
1:45pm: The Orioles are one of “a few teams” who have talked to the Padres about veteran righty James Shields, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter links). The Red Sox have also been in contact with San Diego about starting pitching, so Heyman feels Shields’ name likely came up between the two sides. No trade is thought to be close at the present time, however.
At least $65MM remains owed to Shields on his current contract — $21MM in each of the next three seasons, and a $2MM buyout of a $16MM club option for 2019. According to Heyman, the Padres are willing to cover some of Shields’ contract, though the exact number depends on how much they get back in a trade.
Shields can also opt out of the contract after this season, which adds another wrinkle to trade negotiations as a suitor may not want to give up too much for just one season of Shields’ services. Shields will be 35 on Opening Day 2017 so he may not want to test the open market again if he doesn’t think he can top the $44MM already guaranteed to him, though another solid season could make him a hot commodity in a 2016-17 free agent market that’s very thin on quality pitching.
Shields is coming off something of an unusual season that saw him post a 3.91 ERA with a career-best 9.61 K/9, yet he also had career highs in walk rate (3.6 BB/9) and homer rate (17.6%). That last stat is particularly odd given that he pitched his home games at Petco Park — it could be a total fluke, or perhaps a portent of trouble if Shields ends up moving to a more hitter-friendly ballpark like Camden Yards or Fenway Park. Still, Shields was as durable as ever, topping the 200-inning plateau for the ninth straight season, even if his 202 1/3 IP was his lowest mark of those nine years.
This isn’t the first time that the O’s have been linked to Shields this offseason, and the veteran would add some stability to a questionable Baltimore rotation. Kevin Gausman may hit the DL with shoulder soreness, while Miguel Gonzalez has had a rough spring and could lose his starting spot to Tyler Wilson. Yovani Gallardo, Ubaldo Jimenez and Chris Tillman project as Baltimore’s other starters. The Orioles don’t have a deep minor league system to trade from and they’re notoriously finicky about acquiring pitchers due to injury concerns, though Shields’ track record of durability should at least somewhat mitigate the latter issue.
Beyond David Price, the Sox also have some rotation question marks. Clay Buchholz has a well-documented injury history and Eduardo Rodriguez will spend the first month of the season on the DL (with knuckleballer Steven Wright the favorite to step in). Rick Porcello and Joe Kelly are both looking to rebound after difficult 2015 seasons. Boston has enough farm system depth to offer a blue chip prospect to San Diego in order to get the Friars to cover a larger chunk of Shields’ deal, though the Sox also have the payroll space to absorb more of the contract in exchange for a lesser prospect in a semi-salary dump.
Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner both drew a lot of trade buzz this winter, so it’s fair to assume that the Red Sox at least checked in with the Padres about both younger arms. Ross would be the bigger prize, a top-of-the-rotation type who’s controllable through the 2017 season. Cashner has shown flashes of ace ability in the past, though he will be a free agent after this season.
I’d take Shields if the Pads eat some money and we give them next to nothing in return. I’d rather my Sox set heir sights on something better though, we should try to get someone like Harvey, King Felix, Sale, etc. God knows we have plenty of prospects to get another ace.
Good Job Mark, much better post than the AL East one from before, well done sir!
What is not well done is your comments LOL Only you would say that they will be happy to take them for next to nothing in return and they still have to eat some of his salary LOL Why not give everyone your trade proposals again on Harvey, Sale, and Felix? We need a good laugh today.
Do you ever have any original thoughts of your own or is your one purpose to try to criticize me? I shared my opinion, sorry you apparently do not agree.
Your opion is a joke or at least you make it sound like a joke all the time. All you do it put down every team out there all the time EXCEPT WE KNOW “YOUR RED SOX” You give baseball fans a ban name. Stop always complaining about every other team and stop making the Red Sox out to be a saint of a organization. Try to be a baseball fan for a change. Pointing out how stupid your comments are is very easy and that is why every one on these threads say what they say about you. Why not change your ways? You talk about original comments but what is not original is anything you ever post. These threads are not for you and your RED SOX despite what you think. This is a place to talk real baseball and not fantasy crap you post every day.
Come on man, no need to try to hurt my feelings, I never did anything to you.
Honestly I can care less about your feeling. I come on these threads to talk baseball with true baseball fans like myself. But unfortunately there are trolls like your self who ruin topics cause you dont care about anything other then “YOUR SOX” and feel the need to put down every other team. You will find most people on these threads are true baseball fans in general. We all have a favorite team but you wont find me putting down other teams cause I am a Yankee fan and you wont find me thinking the Yankee’s are better then anyone else. Just talk baseball in a intelligent way and you will have more fun then just being a troll. Unless you enjoy being a troll then I guess keep up the good work. They say if you are gonna do something then do it right. Well you mastered the troll part.
Sorry dude, but on this one I gotta agree with Mark. Your comment was exceptionally obvious. OF COURSE every team in baseball would be interested in Shields if the Padres ate half his salary and the receiving team only had to give up marginal prospects. C’mon, dude. That’s a 12 year old calling into a radio talk show level comment.
This coming from the guy that doesn’t care about anyone else’s feelings and isn’t even remotely interested in being realistic about baseball… Get a life! Once you can converse like an adult, you’ll get respect. You’re not even being realistic about “your sox” question marks. My guess is you’re the 6th grade class clown and not even your school teacher takes you seriously. Respect is earned and your comments have not earned my respect! In fact they’ve shown that you’re unrealistic, egotistical, insecure, and immature. No I’m not a psychologist but I’ve enough psychology in my choice of career that I’ve learned to read a few things. So, want respect and your feelings protected? Start by treating others as humans that are your equals and you’ll gain respect. Continue to talk down to everyone and you’ll continue to have you sorry little feelings hurt! Welcome to the big boy world! If you can’t run with the big dogs stay off the porch! Put on your big girl panties cuz here we go! If you can tear down everyone else and their respective team be prepared to be treated like equine excrement! My 3 cents! (Shoulda hung on to them really cuz I doubt you’ll pay attention and they’re the last 3 that I have!)
Perfect comeback to his continued ridiculous posts.
Funny you should talk about “continued ridiculous posts”
“Good Job Mark, much better post than the AL East one from before, well done sir!”
Yeah you’re right. Posts are only good when they mention the Red Sox.
I love how you’re just a troll now, it makes the comments more entertaining
I see how things work here. Don’t agree with the mindless groupthink that occurs with most of the commenting community, get labeled a troll. God forbid everyone shows some respect to differing opinions, especially to those of us Sox fans who are persecuted on here for no reason other than jealousy.
No one persecutes a level headed, reasonable Red Sox fan. We have plenty of those on this site. That is not a description of you.
People call you the mindless cause of your post. No one would comment on your crazy post in a negative way if you used logic your self and if you stopped putting down every other baseball team out there. There are 29 other teams beside “YOUR SOX”. Try to show some respect to the other fans and there teams and people may just start to show you some respect. Every post you commont on is starting with how that teams suck and how :YOUR RED SOX” are this and that and would never do this or that. Then you give trade proposals like every team only deserves your cast off garbage or low level prospect like they are worth gold and maybe people will start to take you as a fan and not a troll.
The Royals just traded Mike Moustakas, Raul Mondesi and Wade Davis to the Red Sox for Brock Holt, Pablo Sandoval and Henry Owens, SO DON’T HOLD YOUR BREATH THIS GUYS ON TO SOMETHING
Please stop. You are giving Red Sox fans an even worse reputation than we already have, especially during a year when second place after the Jays in the AL East is the most reasonable expectation we have.
Gee, Mark, if you like him so much, just get a room.
You guys are the idiots! Leave “bigpapi4ever” alone. If you don’t like what he has to say don’t read it! Furthermore, don’t respond to it!! Seriously, it’s getting annoying! He can post whatever he wants. That’s what these threads are for. If it bugs you, go find s different site!
Leave “bigpapi4ever” alone.
How bout he leaves Us alone and stops posting?
“Seriously, it’s getting annoying!”
The fault is on him, not us.
“He can post whatever he wants. ”
He’s had comments deleted before, so no..
“If it bugs you, go find s different site!”
And if Our responses bug you, YOU go find a different site
I think that is his dad defending him. We had better talk to him with more respect of we may have it coming to us LOL
If it bothers you so much Marty why not sit your son down and have a talk with him? He may make even make you proud some day as a baseball fan.
Marty maybe you should not read all the posts blasting bigpapi? But you are a troll and have to tell others they cant respond or should not read he posts or they have to find another site? But you can read posts you do not like? You can respond? But you dont have to find another site or follow your own advice! You are a troll!!!!! Get lost. Dont repond to me if you dont like it. Go find another place to go trolling!!
I honestly don’t know how to reply to you, because I don’t believe you care much about logical interaction within a comment section. I’ll just say that this isn’t MLB17 The Show set to no trade review where the system can just be set on cheats. I’ll just use Felix Hernandez as an example. If you think dealing King Felix would even just be a simple baseball decision, you’re wrong. The team marketing is built around him…including ticket packages. I don’t care what prospect package you believe your Sox have…that has to be considered.
You do understand that this site is frequented by fans of the other 29 mlb teams, right? I’m actually not sure you’d not catch flack on a Red Sox blog. I know you’re young, but you’re also capable of learning.
Shields for Sandoval, Bryce Brentz and 9M
The Sox get the better player on a similar contract in exchange they give up a decent prospect whose buried on the depth chart.
Opens up a spot for Shaw/whoever and adds some stability to the rotation. That’s a good idea, I would support that.
Sandovol has ZERO trade value at this moment. I dont think you will see Padres looking to make that deal even with the 9 million you are tossing in. Unless you are talking about 9 million for each year Sandovol has left on his deal.
I have often thought Shields for Pablo (two bad contracts for each other) would be a good idea.
Well Shields is coming off a +1.9 WAR season whereas Sandoval is coming off a -0.9 WAR season. Sandoval’s contract as of now has been far worse and I’d say he has way Less trade value than Shields even though Shields is older.
This, times a million.
There is reason to fear that Shields’ contract could be an albatross in a year. But every projection system has him being worth significantly more than his salary in 2016. On the flip side, Sandoval already has an albatross of a contract (which runs longer) and has one projection system that shows he might possibly almost be able to earn his salary this year.
Shields was disappointing, but a contributor, in 2015. Sandoval was hideously bad.
Shields for Benintendi and Ball and Padres send $11 million along with Shields. Padres are rebuilding and have no need for a has been on a big contract nor a 27 year old non-prospect. Every Sox outfield prospect is blocked, so they are trading from an area of strength. I would say Moncada, but all Sox fans overvalue their prospects, so they would be apoplectic over that.
Isn’t Benintendi a top 50 prospect in all of baseball? The Red Sox could get way more than James Shields for him.
Yes. he is. He is a prospect. Period. Do not place too much value on any prospect. The percentage that even make it to the majors is very low, even among top 50 prospects. For top 100 prospects its 7%. For top 50 its not much higher.
Shields is a proven performer and with cash coming along with him, 1/2 of his 2016 salary in my proposal, he will get the Padres a return that includes most teams top prospect.
Benintendi is not the Sox top prospect, not one that the front office has said is off limits as they have said about Moncada. He is blocked by many young players on the Red Sox.
Again, do not overvalue prospects. The odds are not in your favor regardless of their rankings.
So the statistics you presented arent true. First a lot more than 7% of the top 100 at least make the majors, second hitting prospects are a less volatile commodity and are vastly more projectable than pitchers. Lastly the improvements in scouting league wide even in the last 5 years make it so any statistical data if prospects failing 10 years ago irrelavent. The success rate of these lists will only continue improve with the amount of data collected and putting a number on the aspects of the eye test that actuallh hold weight.
“The percentage that even make it to the majors is very low, even among top 50 prospects. For top 100 prospects its 7%. ”
Aside from being patently absurd and wrong on the face of it, that’s a very good point you make.
I misspoke. 7% of top 100 prospects become starters in MLB. Hitters were not different than pitchers in that regard. 17% make the show in some aspect or another. 11% of top 50 prospects become starters with the same percentage making the show as top 100. So, basically, you have a 1 in 9 shot that Benintendi becomes a starter in the majors. Subscribe to Baseball America for those stats.
Shields has 9 straight years of 200+ IP. He is a proven producer at the MLB level.
Proven commodity or 1 in 9 shot. I take proven.
Again 17% is incorrect. I will link an article to show you where above averagr players come from, keep in mind this years old and the lists just get better and better every year. Its shows over 2/3 of all players who even have 1 above average season were at one point top 100 prospects. And top 50 accounts for over 50% of all above average players. Keep in mind shields also expects to regress, normal aging curve is -.3 war every year after 33 for pitchers. Here is the link, read this instead of making up your own numbers. fangraphs.com/blogs/how-many-good-players-were-goo…
You seem to infer that while Benitez Benitendi is a 1 in 9 shot that Shields, as a proven commodity, is a 9 in 9 shot. He is 34 this year and I bet if you dumped all the available data you would find that on average 34 y.o. starters, even ones with very strong records of durability and above average performance, don’t give you over 200 high quality innings. I would guess (total guess really) that it’s more like a 7 or maybe 8 out of 9 shot, and that’s for a proven commodity like Shields. And then you have to factor in that Benitendi will have 7 (or 6.9) years of control for the same cost as one year of Shields, so you should effectively multiply Benitendi’s 1 in 9 shot by that factor, since if he became good and a starter he’d presumably do it for more than a year or two, he’d do it til he’s 30 or whatever. So by that he and Shields seem to have about equal value.
Shields two additional years obviously factor in too but their value is way too hard to calculate, especially since he can opt out of them. But one expensive year of Shields does seem to equal Benitendi, and since the Red Sox are very much in win-now mode Shields might indeed be more valuable.
Only 20% of top 100 prospects never make the majors, the majority of those are injury related, most teams at least give those talents a chance.
I don’t know if you’re really this ignorant, horribly bad at math, or just don’t committed to ensuring that reality doesn’t get in the way of your ill-begotten opinions, Nonetheless, you’re completely, terribly, absolutely wrong on this and just going further down the hole of ignorance here.
Take just as an example the top 50 players on the BA Top 100 list from five years ago.
Of them, 48 have played in the majors. Jameson Taillon, who had not yet made his professional debut when he was on the list, and Trey McNutt, whose right arm essentially fell off, are the only two who have not yet played in the Majors. I suspect even you understand that Taillon will do so at some point this year. And I’m sure McNutt’s name will cause you to vomit out some ridiculous comment about AJ Preller signing him to a minor league deal being proof that AJ doesn’t know what he’s doing.
Of the 22 position players in that group, 15 already have multiple seasons with 500 plate appearances, which I suspect even you recognize qualifies as a starter. Several others, who were all below the age of 21 at the time they appeared on the list, will do so in the coming year.
Of the 28 pitchers on the list 12 have multiple seasons with 25 or more starts. An additional five of the pitchers from that list, who don’t qualify as starters, went on to be elite level closers.
Even if you look at last year’s list, well more than 17% of the top 50 have already made the show, and for that matter, more than 11% ALREADY have starting jobs in the big leagues. And most of that list is guys who hadn’t been above Double-A when they published it 13 months ago.
So why don’t YOU go subscribe to Baseball America for those stats and come back and talk with us when you have something based in what actually happens in this universe.
60 percent of the time it works every time
That article has nothing to do with how many out of Top 100 ever make it to MLB as starters. It is talking about what percentage of 3+ WAR players were at one time in the top 50 or top 100.
It is trying to say that slightly more than 50% of all 3+ WAR players in MLB in 2012 were once top prospects, it is not even addressing how many of the total top 100 prospects became regulars in MLB.
You are using the wrong side of the equation. Try again.
It’s actually very easy to calculate since as our friend said above, pitchers decline an average of 0.3 WAR each year past 33 from their career averages. For Shields that is 3.2 WAR. So 2.9 in 2016, 2.6 in 2017 and 2.3 in 2018. A total of 7.8 WAR
If Benintendi doesn’t make it as a starter, he is worth very little. Certainly 6 years of a 4th OF is less than 3 years of Shields. If he doesn’t make it at all, then he has zero value.
Hey Pads Fans, you telling someone to “try again” is the ultimate in the uniformed pot calling the kettle black.
Not only have you ignored the fact that your argument on this is patently false, but if your math skills were better than the average three-fingered sloth (which based on its anatomy, has a better excuse than you for not being able to count to four without help), you’d realize that the absurd claims you’re making can’t be true if such a high percentage of 3 WAR players were previously on BA’s Top 100 list.
Pads fan … So you admit Shields is a has been but the Red Sox have two give you two prime prospects for the has been because they are only prospects? And they are blocked? And its not their #1 prospect!? Hahhaha ok Pads Fan. Thank God you came along to save the Red Sox who are stuck with so many prospects that they did not know they were being blocked …?? Huh??? Why would they not trade those same top prospects for someone actually good??
Why would we want a headache like Pablo and another outfield prospect we don’t need? No thanks.
How about Sandoval for Taylor Lindsay and the Sox pay all of Sandoval’s contract?
That’s really bad for the sox.. Even though Sandoval was terrible last year he will still be much better than Lindsay, especially for free
No, Sandoval had negative WAR which means he was losing games for the Sox. Lindsey wouldn’t lose any games for the Sox.
The shields for Sandoval thing is never gonna happen and it’s mentioned way too much
Something to know about ballparks in Southern California having to do with climate: basically two modes, hot and dry, and cool and damp. On hot dry days balls can fly out these ballparks; on the cool damp ones (mostly night games midseason), the same balls die on the warning tracks like wounded quail. Happens we’ve had a lot more hot and dry over the last few years of severe drought, and not coincidently (I think) some real power displays going on at what are otherwise rated as pitcher’s parks.
Great post!
That was certainly true in September of 2015 when Petco Park had its 3 hottest days at game time in the ballparks history (93 on Sept 10) and the month was the 2nd hottest on record for the city. October was even hotter, but not much baseball then. May and July were the wettest on record with temperatures far below average. In June the temperatures in San Diego were average and in August they were slightly above average.
Same being true in LA of course. So many times this past summer (especially) the usual marine effect did not appear late afternoon and the evenings at the stadium were unusually warm and dry. Conditions not normally seen except in late September were turning up all spring and summer long. We know a ball travels farther in 20% humidity than in 80% with the same energy, and it’s also harder for a pitcher to make a pitch break sharply. A lot more is going on in the physics of baseball than whether the wind is blowing in or out. I wonder if anyone tracks meteorological effects in baseball? Could matter a lot more to outcomes than the now sacred stats such as pitch framing.
Alan Nathan, author of “The Physics of Baseball” has co-authored several papers on the topic.
Will check that out, thanks!
Dr. Nathan was a speaker at the SABR convention in 2013. Very interesting talk. I’m going to have to go dig out his paper. Thanks!
Fun fact: All else equal, air with higher moisture content is LESS DENSE than air with lower moisture content.
Furthermore, even if you’re looking at a Santa Ana condition with high temp (say 30C) and very low dew point (11C) the difference in air pressure compared to a typical San Diego July evening (say 22C with 16C dew point) difference in air pressure is only about 4-5% .
Air pressure is one issue, but resistance is another. In the hitter-friendliness of Denver for example altitude is one factor but so is the dry air. Less moisture, less resistence. In any event, if the difference was only 4-5% that would be enough produce a measurable difference in outcomes I would think.
When you look at stats from Padres pitchers in 2015, just realize that every pitcher had a higher BB/9 and HR/9 as well as a higher ERA than they had in 2014. Not some, not a few, all of them. When it’s across the board, the problem isn’t with the pitchers.
The defense stunk and Norris called a terrible game and was only a mediocre pitch framer. All of them should improve by getting a better defense behind them and not having Norris behind the plate.
The one Padres pitcher who got a different catcher during the season, Tyson Ross, saw a huge improvement in his stats once Norris was not catching him.
BB/9 has nothing to do with defense and HR/9 has nothing to do with defense except for maybe 2 or 3 plays a year (I’m talking about the inside the park HR of course. Funny how the last 2 in baseball involved the same OFer each time in Cespedes)
But as far as Norris catching, yes maybe that was a problem. Could certainly have to do with going to a new team and league though. In 2014 when he was with Oakland, the A’s finished with the 4th Lowest BB/9. In 2015, the Padres had the 5th Highest BB/9.
Well a lot of people have speculated that Padres pitchers, and Shields specifically changed up their approach because they couldn’t rely on good defense. Hence both the increased K and Walk rates.
I have not seen any speculation of that type. Here is the thing. Don’t speculate. Look at the stats. A successful pitcher doesn’t go away from his most effective pitches and long term history unless the catcher is calling for something else. That was clearly the case last season. Once Ross got Hedges behind the plate and Hedges was calling for the pitches Ross is used to throwing and in locations he is used to throwing them, his performance got substantially better with the same defense behind him,
I looked at the stats, he lowered his cutter usage and replaced all those with curves. This would explain the increased walk rate as well as the homer rate. Hanging curves and hitters could sit on a straighter fastball.
The cutter was Shields’ most effective pitch in 2013 and 2014. Why would he replace it with a curve? It was a knucklecurve, btw. Why would he throw his knucklecurve instead, especially considering how many were called up in the zone? You throw your curveball in the dirt and it’s the catcher’s job to block it. Norris was 2nd in MLB in Pb so he had a hard time with that apparently and i think that is why he kept calling for those KCs up in the zone. In 2014 Shields threw a 2 seam FB on first pitch nearly 20% of the time. In 2015 it was nearly non-existent. Why? It is the perfect pitch to get your pitcher a groundball and an easy out early in the count. In 2013 and 2014 Shields’ 4 seam fastball was very effective. So why decrease the number of them thrown so much and then only throw them late in the count. That runs counter to everything I learned. Establish your FB, 4 seam or sinker, early in the count. Isn’t that the way you were taught to pitch.
Look at his usage! He threw 8% less cutters and 8% more curves last year! Dont ask me why, he is thd one who did lol
What I am saying is it wasn’t his doing. It was Norris calling the games.
TV broadcasts tried to explain the high homer rates last year. Time and time again they showed the pitchers just missing their spots. I doubt it was Norris’ game calling.
Did I say it did? Nope. Those two stats were all about Norris’ bad game calling. Just look at the differences in types of pitches called and pitch placement between 2014 and 2015 for Padres pitchers. Nearly no 2 seamers for Cashner or Shields on 1st pitches? Knucklecurves up in the zone consistently? Significant decreases in the pitchers most effective pitch for Shields, Cashner, Kimbrel and Ross. He didn’t know his staff and they suffered. What he did in Oakland is irrelevant to what we saw last year in San Diego.
In my opinion, the most damning evidence is what happened once Hedges became Ross everyday catcher. Ross ERA dropped from 3.90 to 3.26. Take out the two home runs he gave up with Norris behind the plate on 9/10 and his ERA is even lower.
The pitcher’s ERA was affected by league-worst defense as was their abnormally high babip. It was typical to see players that simply were not even in the picture on plays that would have been made by Padres players of the past. Those are called hits in the scorecard, but they should have been plays made by most if not easily.
Ok, for one, on 9/10 when Ross gave up three HR’s, it was Hedges who was behind the plate, so you’re either lying or ignorant. For two, I already exposed your bias against Norris when you said that he was bad at throwing out baserunners. In reality, he was sixth best out of 13 qualifying catchers at throwing out baserunners with a 34% caught stealing pct. I’m sure you have some figure in your mind for what constitutes a “good” caught stealing pct but if Norris is bad then so are half the other catchers in the league. And you’re probably going to ignore this comment like you always do when you’ve been proven wrong 🙂
Misreading on my part. I somehow missed the part where you said “as well as a higher ERA ”
I was about to say you didn’t mention ERA anywhere until your reply here.
My fault. PadsFans
Thanks. I try to think out my posts before I make them and I appreciate your comments. They too were well thought out.
Well when there is a higher percentage of times hedges is at the plate there will probably be more homers when he is catching
[pretendshockedvoice]He would do no such thing.[/pretendshockedvoice]
I’d truly rather have 100 of the yahoo from Boston’s comments than one of his.
Hedges was taken out of the game after the 5th inning, Amarista went to LF, Myers to 1B and Norris to Catcher and 2 of those 3 home runs were given up in the 6th (Dickerson) and 7th inning (Gonzales) with Norris behind the plate. It’s easy enough to look up the Gameday and see what happened or if you are like me, you can just go to your DVR and watch the game again.
Norris threw out a mediocre percentage of runners by your own admission with the stats there, but he had the 2nd most stolen bases and 2nd most attempts against him for a reason. Runners have no fear of his arm.
None of that changes the correctness of anything that I have said. Norris is a bad game caller. Every pitcher was worse in 2015 with him behind the plate. Ross got better once Hedges was his everyday catcher. In addition to the worst defense in the league making our pitchers ERA and Babip go up, Norris’ bad game calling and mediocre pitch framing made their BB/9 and HR/9 go way up and contributed to their increases in ERA.
Wrong again. I’m staring at the box score on MLB.com this very second. Hedges was pinch hit for in the bottom of the seventh and Norris (who had started the game at 1st base) shifted to catcher in the eighth.
And like I said, you probably have some figure in your mind for what constitutes a good pct of runners thrown out but Norris’ was sixth best of 13 qualifying catchers. So if Norris is bad, so are more than half the catchers in the league. His caught stealing pct was 10% worse than league leader Wilson Ramos and 19% better than league loser Kurt Suzuki, which indicates to me that at the very least he is average at throwing out baserunners. He had the most baserunners caught stealing for a reason. If baserunners have no fear of his arm I say “let them” because he did a good job with the runners trying to steal against him, or if 34% isn’t a good job, then all those baserunners should start stealing against everyone else just as much, because statistically, they’re more likely to be successful against those guys than Norris. But I don’t think they will try it against Norris as much in 2016.
Anyway, you can’t keep acting like the amount of stolen bases allowed is relevant but the amount of baserunners caught stealing isn’t. They’re both irrelevant, only the percentage of runners caught stealing matters. Come on Richard, your bias is showing!
I one hundred percent agree Norris is the worst catcher in the MLB and if u don’t believe me look at the before and after stats of some pitchers before and after Norris was their catcher some examples are Lester shields Ross cashner and despaigne
Worst catcher?: Come on.
I just looked up Lester’s and you couldn’t be any more wrong. Lester with Norris behind the plate had a 2.35 ERA, a 4.4 K/BB ratio and a BB/9 of just 1.9
The sample size isn’t large, but Lester’s numbers with Norris catching are some of the best numbers he has. Not the worst
There you go ruining a perfectly good irrational whine with pesky facts. This is the internet, we have no need for that here!
So Norris was the one throwing the pitches?
Norris was the one calling the game. Do you not understand how baseball works? The catcher calls the game. The pitcher throws what the catcher calls most of the time and occasionally shakes off the catcher to get a different pitch called.
lol
You’re reaching here. The pitcher can throw whatever they want, however they want, whenever they want. If they want to throw more of one pitch or less of another it’s their job to take it up with Norris and his job to accept that. If they know that the pitch being called for is bad and they still throw it they are just as much to blame. Pitchers are human beings with agency.
Taking on Sheilds’ contract is a gigantic gamble. While i don’t see him opting out, to give anything of value for him, and be on the hook for that amount is farther than any team should go
I agree that it could be a huge gamble but it could also be a huge reward if he returns to his old form, which I think is possible if he gets out of San Diego.
The white sox could use a right handed starter .
Will they be willing to swap contracts for John Danks lol
Danks has reworked his delivery and has looked very good this spring.
You idiots need to leave “bigpapi4ever” alone! Jeez! You’re a bunch of high school bullies. If you don’t like what the guy says…don’t read it!! He loves his team and his sport. Leave him alone. Post an original comment for a change instead of responding to his!
Well he called out Mark in the AL East post for not mentioning the Red Sox and now he says that Mark’s post here is better, and we know why, it’s because it Does mention the Red Sox.
If he’s going to call out a writer/mod here, he better have a good reason. Not posting about the Red Sox is Not a good reason.
He’s even had comments deleted from mods, so even They, you know, the guys who Run the site, know how Annoying he can be.
“If you don’t like what the guy says…don’t read it!!”
Kind of difficult Not to read it when he’s usually one of the first ones to post each time.
I would love to see the O’s get Shields but I just don’t exactly know what they’d have to give up to get him. Possibly include Gonzalez in the deal so the Padres get a MLB SP in return but other than that I’m not sure. They’d probably have to give up at least a top prospect or two. If they do trade for him it would definitely help out the rotation.
I was thinking maybe Mancini? Not a whole lot to choose from obviously, but he is someone with value who is blocked position wise. The need for rotation help is obvious and I would love for them to get shields too. But I’m not holding my breath.
As an O’s fan I suggest trading a bushel of crabs for Shields. That is all we have to trade with. Or maybe Boston can loan us a few players to get the trade done?
MLBTR is a terrific site, but the commenting is getting off the rails. 90% of the angst surrounds one commenter. Maybe the best response to him (or her) is to let him talk himself out? Tree falls in the forest….
“Maybe the best response to him (or her) is to let him talk himself out?”
Easier said than done lol
Oh, I didn’t say it was easy….it might be a 12 step program
Why would the Red Sox go after “Big Game” James when they could offer Kung Fu Panda to the Mets for their starting rotation. The “Big 5” for Big Papi JR. The Mets would have someone to back up Wright’s bad back and The Sox would have 10 Aces. Lmao Too soon?
I know they want to get rid of his contract, but the padres are better off trading tyson ross, they would get a better package back.
They will trade both, but with shields contract being so expense trading him sooner than later actually saves them money even if they eat some. Shields makes 3.5 mil a month, trading him now can save them enough to cover their whole draft this year.
I see tyson ross going to the cubs
It’s going to take a huge haul to get Ross. Maybe not the crazy haul the Braves got for Miller, but close.
Maybe soler or Baez plus a prospect or two
Nah, ross will only have a year and a half left, they wouldnt trade off the mlb roster for him, unless almora is ready then maybe soler straight up. Otherwise the package would be headlined by mckinney and someone like pierce johnson.
Hahaha Miller has more trade value than Ross because of the extra year of control and the general consensus is that the Diamondbacks overpaid for Miller.
So just as reference, has SD been trying to cut payroll and slim back from where they went wrong?
Shields+Upton Jr+6mil on each contract per year. For Jackie Bradley Jr and Lhp Eduardo rodriguez
I think I am the only person in the entire Universe who LOVES Big Game James! I would love for the Orioles to get him. He would actually make the Orioles look less like a softball time. The contract might be high, but his name isn’t Big Game because he knows how to play Monopoly. He might not be the same guy he was while with the rays, but he is definitely a quality starter that will automatically shift to the top of their rotation if acquired. Good luck passing that physical though.
Ok serious 3 team trade here, no one eats money from a contract, and I think they balance out for the benefit of all 3 teams (criticism welcome of course.
BRAVES:
Shields
BREWERS:
Kemp, Austin Hedges, and Swisher
PADRES:
Braun and Lucroy
Braves get solid 2 for their rotation while shedding Swisher.
Brewers save $32M over life of OF contract, while taking on Swish, and getting backup, controllable catcher.
And Padres shed two contracts they have desired to lose. Save money over life of contracts and receive better of the two OFs.
That was very well thought out! That is more realistic than what the Dodgers and Braves did last year this time. Looks like a win, win, win….lol
(My last comment should have said softball team, not softball time)
Get the GMs on the phone, their minds will be blown, haha.
Brewers are getting absolutely fleeced in this deal
So the Brewers give up 2 quality, productive MLB regulars, and get 2 bad contracts and a no-bat catcher in return?
Not to mention the Braves get a quality MLB starter back in exchange for a player they are about to just cut.
The trade looked great to me because I hate the brewers! But in their defense, they do get a player who would attract a crowd in Kemp, and a useful piece to trade at the deadline if he takes advantage of the smaller ballpark than the one he currently resides in. Swisher comes off the books and would be a great leader in the clubhouse with his larger than life personality. And they get rid of Braun! All of that sounds good to me!
Well if you want to be very technical, take out Braun’s PED stats and their stat lines over their careers are right in line. Yes Braun has the upper hand, but that is why they are saving $32M in the contract swap. In that exchange is where they take on more money with Swisher.
Yes Braves get a Quality MLB starter, but they are taking on an additional $48M to do so, and SD is not chipping anything in.
Hedges is still 23 and would slot behind Maldonado anyway while he works on his bat.
So you have 3 rebuilding teams trading their assets for no long term assets. Hedges is the only actual young asset he is the only guy any if these 3 teams would want.
I agree, but reshuffling of owed money. The differential of contracts long term is Atlanta 48 (while bringing an Ace into SunTrust and fan support), MIL -22M and SD -23M.
Just thought the swaps made sense.
shields can opt out of his contract so if he decides to do that then the team wasted away at trading prospects for shields
And if that is the case, Braves are not hurt.
Swap still makes sense to me! More sense than that crazy multi-player trade a year ago that Atlanta did.
Two things: 1) If Shields opts out, he is only hurting himself. Nobody is paying a 35 yr. old 21 mil on the open market. He is 100% guaranteed to ride this huge contract out. 2) If he hits his head and has a complete brain failure, the Braves would absolutely love him and probably give him a bonus to leave as appreciation for saving them 40+MM.
He would not even be able to find 20 mil in new money on the open market, even if he signed for 4 years. No way he opts out.
I thought this proposal was a joke until I saw there were about 20 followup comments discussing it. You have the Brewers, who are in a hard rebuild, trading away their two best players, one of whom is in high demand and could be the most in demand player at the deadline if he has a good first half, and getting zero prospects back. Substitute Votto and Mesoraco or Freeman and Miller when they still had him. Are those guys’ rebuilding teams packaging their franchise players for zero prospects to shave $50m or even $150m off their books? Come on…
It is a joke! We can’t spend Atl’s money, SD’s assets, or even Mil’s trade chips. I like it because it allows for stale garbage to be recycled in other cities and the Brewers get the short end of the stick! That always works for me.
Apparently I was way off. Their two best players are not getting them anywhere in the division in the next three years. Shed money now and still have competitive players in Kemp and Maldonado behind the dish, is a a good part of a rebuild.
James Shields for Rusney Castillo seems fair.
Oakland has a lot of surplus INF and the rotation is majorly iffy past Gray, I could see them offering SD a package with any/all of Wendle, Canha, Muncy, Ravelo, Sogard or Healy for Tyson Ross. Ross returns to his first org, his fave team growing up and also where’s he’s from and solidifies the rotation and turns their postseason chances from average to pretty decent.
The Angels should be in on Shields.. With Wilson out and Weaver issues he could help. Not an Angels fan but it sucks to see a player like Trout get “wasted”. Idk what the Pads would want in return or if the Angels even have something they would want. But I think it’s worth a shot.
You all need to calm down…the purpose of this app is to comment about baseball-related things, and that’s what bigpapi is doing. Yeah maybe the mentioning of “my Sox” is annoying, but you all are just as annoying because this app isn’t meant for a roast it’s meant to comment your opinion on the post and that’s exactly what he’s doing. So chill
Does he have the right to call out the writers if they don’t mention the Sox though? I ask that because he did that.
So much craziness in this comment section…
If the Padres can get out from Shields contract, that would be good. However they won’t be getting much in return from a trade.