The following six to seven weeks figure to bear out plenty of extensions, and there figures to be a good bit of focus on the Mets’ young rotation in that time. Comments made by right-hander Jacob deGrom to the New York Post’s Kevin Kernan only figure to fuel that talk, as deGrom told Kernan that he’s open to exploring a long-term deal with the Mets and gave some details into his reasoning:
“I’m a little bit older so I might be more willing to do something like that. You just have to look at what is fair so both sides get a decent deal. It’s something I’d have to look into and make sure I agree with it. … I haven’t thought that much about it and I have to talk to my agents and stuff and look at the numbers and decide what was favorable.”
At 27 years old and with just one year, 139 days of Major League service time under his belt, deGrom is indeed a late bloomer and thus older than the typical extension candidate. His service time makes him a strong candidate to reach Super Two status next winter, giving the Mets good reason to look to lock him up now, as deGrom’s urgency to do so will decrease in each subsequent year as he gains continued financial security and moves closer to free agency. Also due to his relatively advanced age, the allure of eventually reaching free agency for deGrom might not be as tantalizing as it would for a pitcher that is set to hit free agency at a more typical age of 29 or 30. Under control through the 2020 season, deGrom wouldn’t hit the open market until the offseason preceding his age-33 season. While there’d still be plenty of money to be made if he can continue his current trajectory (especially when imagining how the market might progress over the next half-decade), his chances at landing the type of five- or six-year deal that top free-agent pitchers often command will be naturally curbed due to his age.
Madison Bumgarner still holds the contractual record for a starting pitcher with between one and two years of Major League service time at a guarantee of $35MM over five years (as can be seen in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker). That deal also contained a pair of club options that could push the contract’s value to a total of $57.5MM (or slightly greater, depending on his finishes in the Cy Young voting). That deal, though, is nearly four years old, and deGrom and his agents at CAA would seem to have a case to set a new precedent for pitchers in the one-plus service time class. Bumgarner, after all, had amassed a 3.10 ERA in 325 2/3 innings at the time of his extension, whereas deGrom has a 2.61 career ERA in 331 1/3 innings. The dramatically superior ERA and strikeout rates, in addition to the fact that deGrom has three more career wins and a slight edge in total innings pitched, would give him a superior bargaining platform in arbitration than the one that Bumgarner would have held. deGrom is also a likelier candidate to reach Super Two status than was Bumgarner (who would’ve had 2.127 year of service after the 2012 season).
Others in the Mets’ rotation, specifically Matt Harvey but also younger arms Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz, could theoretically be extension candidates as well. However, Harvey is already in agreement on a $4.35MM salary for the upcoming season and, as a Scott Boras client, seemingly less likely to broker a long-term commitment that buys out any of his highly valuable free-agent years at any type of discount rate. Syndergaard and Matz both have less than one year of Major League service time, so the team needn’t feel overly urgent to lock either starter down, and the pair may want to further establish themselves before committing to an extension with only brief (albeit impressive) track records in the Majors.
Must get his fat paycheck before the arm goes like his other flame throwing buddies!
Cubs fan?
Dodgers. Same diffrencr 😉
His arm already “went”, he had TJ in the minors.
Doesnt mean he wont require it again seeing his fastball is hard
deGrom is a smart guy. He already realizes he will be 32 by the time he is a FA. Thus he likely won’t get some long term contract unless he pitches like Greinke.
Most Mets fans know Harvey is likely a goner in two or three years depending if we trade him. His contract demands are likely to be ridiculous.
So I would definitely work hard with deGrom and try to lock him up through his ages 34-35 season.
I see the mets keeping deGrom , Syndergard and Matz plus Wheeler long term, Harvey is tough because he is a boras client
Syndergaard may turn out to be the next big thing in the NL and he is the only young mets pitcher to not have TJS but I want to see a track record before an extension.
Matz was impressive in 35~ innings but he is injury prone but he may take a hometown discount (grew up only 2 hours from Citi Field)
I need to see more success from Wheeler before discussing an extension
That would be ideal. I’d *love* if they could hold onto all 4. Harvey is a gamer and I’m sure he’ll make some team very happy….for $250m. Syn is the guy I want the Mets to lock down NOW. Maybe deGrom negotiating a deal will push Syn to consider it too. Matz they can wait and see, but I expect good things from him. Wheeler…obviously give him at least a year to year and a half more before offering, but he has the peripherals to be nasty. His minor league coaches raved about his stuff (when healthy). He was pitching hurt for awhile, so that detracted from his performance.
I don’t want to forget Colon. While he hasn’t been a Met for that long, he will be one of my all-time fav. Met players. I’m hoping he can pitch well this year. I’d love for him to get a Wakefield-like contract…1yr at a time, something team friendly, and something that makes sense for both sides. Heck of a mentor (or so I’ve read) and he has a great clubhouse presence (also based on what I’ve read).
Yes..I’m a diehard met fan.
Teams were willing to trade for him while injured (arguably at his lowest value), which tells me that his coaches and other scouts are right about him.
Of all the pitchers, Wheeler probably has the nastiest stuff, but just needs to control it better and learn how to ‘pitch’ and not ‘throw.’
I agree – Syn, DeGrom, Wheeler and Matz are the 4 they’ll most likely keep. Each of them want to stay and have publicly announced that. Harvey, however will either be traded or just become a FA. Trading Harvey, especially sooner rather than later, will net the Mets the young talent they could use on the field to better balance the team. Example: a deal with the Dodgers for Seager, Pederson and Urias would benefit both teams. A still inexpensive Harvey paired with Kerahaw for at least the next 4 years I believe (if dealt now), would be a huge lift for the Dodgers while the Mets put some talent on the field with another potential solid pitcher not too far off. Risky, but could make sense.
Honestly, the Dodgers arent giving up that in a million years, no matter what they’re offered. It just won’t happen in their FO
The Mets would do Seager, Pederson, & Urias in a second. I love Matt Harvey and think he will be very dominant for years to come, but those three have all-star upsides and solid MLB’ers as their floors. If the Mets could get Urias + Seager + a couple of lottery tickets or better…you take that deal too.
I don’t see the need to sign him beyond what they already control him for, as a lot could happen between now and 2021, when he becomes a FA. However, I would definitely be willing to work with him on essentially buying out his Arb years and spreading that money out over the next five years. He isn’t even Arb-eligible for two more years, so the Mets could probably get a decent deal while allowing deGrom some instant financial stability.
Make some Arb projections and spread that money out over a five year deal. deGrom has a great attitude, is a fan favorite, and has produced excellent results so far.
You hit the nail on the head. There’s no reason for the Mets to do anything with him right now. or in the near future. When his arb year comes up, they might consider it
He’ll almost certainly be arb-eligible after ’16. He’s gonna be a super-2. That said, I’d like the Mets to be cautious in extension talks. If they can get something like 1/4/8/13/18/25/25/25 I’d be thrilled, but there’s no way deGrom would sell his FA years for just 25 MM apiece for just three years. That’d be 119 MM over 8 years, ’16-’23. If deGrom was going to delay his free agency by three years and hit FA at that awkward 35/36 age where he’s too old for a mega-deal, he’d want more than 25 per year, or he’d want more years locked in at that rate. I don’t know if I’d want to go past three free agent years for him. You’re talking his age-36 and age-37 campaigns by 2024 and 2025.
That seems like a weird deal, both for deGrom and the Mets.
If deGrom is going for an extension, a major motivator for that is getting paid now. 1/4/8 etc makes very little sense for him because he’ll already get that. If he goes through Arb (and I’ll take your Super 2), his next four years are (and these are just ballpark numbers): 600k, $6MM, $13MM, $19MM. Or 4 years and roughly $40MM.
Based on those numbers, offer 5/$60 (or 5/$70, whatever) at $12MM (or $14MM) per season. This way, he gets paid now but stays relatively inexpensive for the Mets. Mets get an extra year of control at a reasonable rate, deGrom gets paid now and hits the market at 32-33.
I’m not a fan of 7 or 8 years because he’s a power pitcher with only ~2 seasons under his belt. Don’t over-commit.
deGrom is the best of the bunce, but he has the least leverage, he will start making good money when he goes to arbitration. Pitching is outlier, you never know he long they are going to stay on top.
deGrom has more leverage than Matz or Wheeler. Matz isn’t terribly young for a pitcher who’s still rookie eligible – he’ll turn 25 in May – and he’s simply far worse than deGrom, in my opinion. Wheeler is simply nowhere near as good. Syndergaard is so good and so young and really just a year behind deGrom’s service timetable, that I could see a case that Syndergaard has more leverage since he’ll hit FA at a young age. Harvey’s so much closer to FA and probably just as good so he’s got plenty of leverage too. Harvey would probably be able to command a deal around 4/10/16 for arb and then 30 a year for however many FA years since he’s so much closer and will hit FA younger. If the Mets wanted five FA years, it’d probably take an 8/165-180 type offer to get it done, IMO. Syndergaard simply will be young enough when he hits FA – he’ll turn 29 during his final season before free agency – to command six or seven years in free agency guaranteed, which boosts his earning power a ton.
Really, no need to do anything w/ deGrom. You are already getting his peak years and just going year to year protects you if regression or injury occur (particularly relevant w/ SPs).
Getting a team friendly deal w. control over the money (which is an under-rated consideration for fans but is a significant consideration for budget planning) is worth pursuing. Maybe he offers a hometown discount. Scouts say his mechanics are sound, he has less wear and tear on his arm than other pitchers his age, and he has shown some good consistency. His signing may also push Syn (and the other a year from now) to consider the possibility of not only greater financial stability, but keeping the core together to have a shot at something special. Harvey still screams 24+1…the other guys don’t. If a deGrom extension can push a Syn extension…it’d be a HUGE win for the Mets.
Bumgarner’s deal has got to be one of the biggest bargains of the last 50 years.
Given how nearly every elite pitcher who comes up in their early-mid 20s declines substantially after age 32, the Mets have little incentive to buy free agent years from him when he is already under team control for the next 5 seasons (until age 32). That said, if deGrom just wants his arbitration years guaranteed, I’m sure the Mets would be willing to do that for a smaller AAV.
Bumgarner got 5 years 35 million, Kluber got 5 years 38.5 million (both players got two options as well). I think we’ll see something along the lines of 5 years 40-45 million with one team option.
Kluber 5/$38.5…forgot about that, wow. 5/$40m-$45m for deGrom is solid.