Recently, I took a stab at finding some logical landing spots for David Freese, who somewhat surprisingly still sits on the open market despite having entered the offseason as the top free-agent third baseman. With Spring Training underway, let’s turn to another one of the three remaining players from MLBTR’s Top 50 free agents that still remains unsigned: Austin Jackson. (Justin Morneau is the other.)
Jackson never developed into the star-level talent that some expected after his first few seasons in the Majors, and the fact that has bat has taken a step back over the past two seasons certainly hasn’t bolstered his stock. Detractors can point to the fact that he’s a fairly strikeout-prone player without the pop to mask those punchouts, and his defensive ratings have declined along with his production at the plate from 2014-15.
However, Jackson’s offensive output was diminished, to some extent, by the pitcher-friendly expanses of Seattle’s Safeco Field, and even his deteriorated bat hasn’t been abysmal. Over the past two seasons, his .261/.310/.364 batting line, when adjusted for park, is about 10 to 11 percent below the league average (per wRC+ and OPS+, respectively). Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating have rated Jackson as an average defender in center field over that same stretch of two years. Even if that’s more or less what Jackson is at this stage of his career — a somewhat below average bat with an average glove in center field — that skill set carries some value to big league clubs, especially if he can be had on a one-year deal. He won’t cost his new club a draft pick, and having just turned 29 earlier this month, Jackson is younger than most free agents and certainly young enough that some degree of rebound shouldn’t be ruled out.
The Angels reportedly offered Jackson a one-year deal worth $5-6MM, which he’s said to have turned down. Whether finances or playing time were the impetus for passing on that deal — MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez noted that Jackson may still not have been in line for everyday at-bats with the Halos — Jackson remains on the market as the month of February winds down. An injury or suspension to a starting outfielder could create an opening for Jackson that doesn’t appear evident at the time being, but let’s run down a few possible landing spots for Jackson that look evident at this very moment…
- Indians — Cleveland is reportedly tapped out in terms of payroll, but the suspension of Abraham Almonte only weakened what was already a thin mix of outfielders. The money may not be there, but the Indians are perhaps the most obvious on-paper fit for Jackson. Their current outfield mix will consist of something like Rajai Davis, Lonnie Chisenhall, Collin Cowgill and Will Venable.
- White Sox — The Sox reportedly made a two-year offer to Dexter Fowler before he returned to Chicago’s other team, and they’ve been linked to a number of trade targets in the outfield. Jackson would provide a reasonable backup to Adam Eaton in center and could see regular at-bats in the outfield corners, as his glove would be an upgrade over that of either Melky Cabrera or Avisail Garcia.
- Orioles — Baltimore famously lost out on Fowler last week with the aforementioned return to the Cubs, and they’ve been connected to Jay Bruce in trade scenarios as well. Jackson would step into right field and serve as an everyday option there that could provide more certainty than Nolan Reimold, Ryan Flaherty and Rule 5 pick Joey Rickard.
- Royals — The Royals aren’t an oft-cited landing spot for an outfielder, but longtime reserve Jarrod Dyson currently projects to get the bulk of the playing time in right field. Dyson’s outstanding glove and baserunning certainly make him an intriguing starting candidate, and there’s a case to be made that he and Jackson are too similar to consider Jackson a true upgrade. For what it’s worth, the Royals did sign a Scott Boras client to a one-year deal rather than give Dyson an everyday look last year (Alex Rios).
- Angels — They may have been turned down, but if the Angels decide to change course on their Daniel Nava/Craig Gentry platoon and look for an everyday option, Jackson does make some sense for the Halos.
- Blue Jays — Toronto attempted to land Bruce in a trade with the Reds and was prepared to send Michael Saunders to the Angels in that swap. Clearly, the team is open to some form of outfield upgrade, and sending Saunders to another club would lessen the financial hit that would be taken by adding Jackson to the payroll. Jackson would make for an even more right-heavy lineup for the Jays, however. Admittedly, this one might be kind of a stretch.
- Brewers, Reds— Either of these clubs consider Jackson an upgrade in the outfield, but both have potential future pieces that could benefit from the at-bats that would go to Jackson, making a signing seem unlikely. However, it’s not out of the question that one of the two teams could eventually consider him a value pickup that could be flipped in a midseason trade.
All of that said, I’ll open this one up to MLBTR readers everywhere with a poll (MLBTR app users can weigh in by clicking on this link)…
Baltimore will probably go and make a serious run at Jackson and it wouldn’t surprise me if they land him. He’s not a huge difference maker but he would solidify that team with his defense and leadoff ability.
I can’t figure Morneau still being available??? He is better than 1/3 of the 1B/DH currently on teams. Incentive laden contract to protect club from any injury concerns would be the way to go. If he stays healthy, somebody is going to get a chance at a potential comeback player of the year and a possible trade chip at the deadline!!
I wonder if the lack of rumors on him is coming from his camp. Maybe he hasn’t decided if he wishes to play this year. Considering his injuries, taking a year off would be understandable.
I cant imagine any benefit to taking a year off .It would leave him in the same spot next year, but having lost a whole year. Jackson doesn’t have the problem of the QO draft pick hanging around his neck, so it is puzzling why he’s still not signed. Maybe expectations were just too high and the market just wasn’t there. (over valued) . Taking a year off wont help that. Even if there is less competition there will be more doubts and the real issue of skills deteriorating. Jackson/Boras will claim that’s not an issue but it doesn’t strengthen his negotiating position. He should seek a one year deal to maintain his value and enter years FA market or seek a fair price (say 7-9 million per year) on a two year deal and spread his value over his remaining 4-6 years that way. This is assuming he still want to play which is a fair assumption since he’s only just 30 years old. I don’t believe his skills are diminished. He was a model of consistency until he was traded twice last year. The only reason he was traded was over fears that his FA price would be too high.
Mourneau is not good enough to push a halfway promising young player aside, he’s dealt with concussions and has had a wRC+ of under 110 (which is about the average at 1B) 3 of the last 4 years. He will be almost 35 on opening day. Looking at potential landing spots only the rays and angels really make sense but he wouldn’t be more than a smallupgrade over loney and angels seem to be going cheap this offseason, maybe he wants to retire
I think the O’s and Austin Jackson have business together this year. The Orioles shouldn’t be faulted by Austin Jackson for trying to sign Fowler first, it was the right move, just as signing Jackson would be now. Jackson should be assured of a starting job and all the innings in RF and AB’s at the top of the lineup he can handle in Baltimore this year, since that’s Baltimore’s need and they don’t have any options as good as him.. They have some satisfactory subs to rest him when needed but he would be the clear and obvious starter in that scenario. A good opportunity with a team that is trying build a winner in a “wide open” AL east. Jackson shouldn’t worry about the recent Fowler debacle, the O’s have a good working relationship with his rep Scott Boras. Other Boras represented players with Orioles are Chris Davis, who just concluded a monster contract there, Matt Weiters who will be a free agent next year, Ace closer Zack Britton, Ace set up man Darren O’day (who just concluded a big contract there), and a few others..It should be a win win for both parties.
I’m guessing Baltimore signs him and then he goes somewhere else.
The O’s gotta get a lead off man Jackson not a bad defender with above average speed-can play all 3 OF spots. With no extra expectations he might thrive with the O’s big bats
I say the Reds will trade Bruce to Baltimore & sign Jackson. Reds could move Hamilton to LF, Jackson in CF , Duvall/Cave/Peraza/Winker/Schebler/Waldrop/Holt/Rodriguez all options in RF to replace Bruce. Jackson could help the young Reds outfielders develop & trade bait at the deadline in August.
Hamilton is the far superior center fielder; why would the reds move him for Jackson?
Orioles better make a push at Jackson he an extensive upgrade over what’s on the roster now
I disagree. I don’t think that Jackson is an upgrade at all. He has no on base skills, his bat is in decline, his fielding is in decline, his speed is in decline, and he still strikes out a ton. Between Reimold, Rickard, Urrutia, Alvarez, Paredes, Hoes, and Avery, there is much better value than there is with Jackson.
RU nuts ? Look at is career numbers, hes more of base stealing threat than Fowler is
You are saying Jackson is “in decline” but you want to play Nolan Reimhold? Reimhold should be long gone. He’s been “just around the corner” for 11 years..Rickard is basically David Lough again (but with less ML experience) , who the Orioles DFA’d last year because he didn’t produce .Rickard wont produce either. Urrutia is the only option that isn’t leftovers .But Urrutia alone isn’t enough, Kim is no sure thing.. Depth is needed. Unless another option like Jackson is brought in the O’s are replaying last years corner OF, minor league side show & exhibition again. Why spend the money they’ve spent bringing the stars back just to do that ?
Speaking of OF’ers, I’m just waiting for the Royals to sign Ryan Rayburn. At the least, he is a RH’ed platoon for Dyson and Snyder in RF. Certainly better than Orlando and maybe even Dyson who is best suited for defensive replacement in the OF (and can’t hit LH’ers).
Rayburn signed with the Giants a couple of days ago.
There was interest but he has not signed with anyone yet.
Austin isn’t a bad player, he’s a solid defender with speed at three different outfield positions. Would be helpful for my Sox or any team listed. This talk of him being a lead off hitter is ridiculous though. His last two seasons OBP are .308 and .311. Haven’t we moved past the ‘just put the fast guy’ at the top of the order? He’s more like a bottom of the lineup guy at this point. For the Orioles, for example, they should use Kim. He projects as a solid OBP guy.. If you’re signing AJax you’re signing him for his defensive versatility and any offense is just gravy.
Metrics aside, Jackson is still a solid player deserving of a 3 year, 21 million deal.