A reporter recently suggested to Nationals star Bryce Harper that he might eventually be able to get a $400MM contract, to which Harper memorably replied, “Don’t sell me short.” $400MM would, of course, be the largest contract ever. But FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron writes that Harper might be worth even more. At this point in his career, Harper is similar in value to a young Alex Rodriguez, and A-Rod’s $252MM contract with the Rangers paid him at a rate of about 12 times the MLB average salary at the time. Since then, the average MLB salary has doubled. While there are some slight differences between the two cases (for example, the fact that A-Rod was younger when he signed his deal than Harper will be when he’ll hit free agency following the 2018 season), Cameron argues that the difficulty now in finding good value on the free agent market should help compensate for them. That could make Harper worth something like $40MM-$50MM a year, and given that he’ll have barely turned 26 when he becomes eligible for free agency, his first free agent deal could potentially clear $500MM, or more if it includes deferrals.
- As has been previously reported, the Marlins continue to look for extra starting pitching depth, and due to a tight budget, they’re focusing on hurlers who might be available on minor-league deals. MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro has the latest details on the team’s pitching search. Previous reports had linked the Marlins to Kyle Lohse, Alfredo Simon, Tim Lincecum and Cliff Lee, and those names continue to be in Miami’s mix — Frisaro notes that when Lincecum and Lee hold workouts, the Marlins plan to attend. Frisaro also mentions 37-year-old Aaron Harang, who at last check had not decided whether or not to play this season. The veteran innings-eater spent 2015 with the Phillies, posting a 4.86 ERA, 5.6 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 in 172 1/3 innings.
- There’s an outside-the-box idea circulating in Canada, reports Francois Cardinal from La Presse (link in French) — business interests could buy half of the Rays and have them split their home games between the Tampa area and Montreal. The Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin has a summary of the plan. Having the team be based in two cities could potentially allow it to maximize television revenue, as games would be broadcast in both markets. Also, per-game attendance would increase because there would be fewer games in each city. Team-related income would be split between both ownership groups. Of course, Cardinal’s idea is far from reality at this point, and there are practical problems, like where in each city the Rays (who are currently trying to find a new stadium site in Tampa Bay) would play, and (as Topkin notes) whether the players association would approve of the arrangement, given the logistical difficulties it would presumably cause players.
pinballwizard1969
Just my opinion but I think comparing Harper’s earning potential 3 years from now is a bit premature. He’s had one standout year. Also to bring Alex’s contract with the Rangers way back when into the comparison is also a bit premature in my opinion. Alex the year he signed with the Rangers had 4 exceptional hears with the Mariners under his belt when he became a FA. This isn’t to say Harper won’t be worth the money come his FA but I think it would be more prudent to give him a chance to get another one or 2 outstanding years under his belt.
pinballwizard1969
correction: …had 4 exceptional “years” with the Mariners under his belt….
lonestardodger
No way a team gets two home fields. Players’ union would object to the repeated travel from Montreal to Florida, plus what would the team be called, the “Tampa Bay Rays Who Sometimes Play in Montreal?” And fans would have to buy a “TBRWSPM” jersey.
gatordoc21
Rayple Leafs? ExRays? CanRaydiens? Buxpos? Ahh the possibilities are endless! But yes it will never happen.
wedgeant27
Teams have enough alternate jerseys already, home, away, alt home, alt away, camo, spanish, throwback, alt away 2, etc. Not far fetched to see a different home uni in each stadium.
Matt Galvin
They did play in Orlando to before that’s closer and should move their.
Michael Macaulay-Birks
Orlando would support them, but only to an extent….lots of people from here drive to St. Pete to see the rays play their favorite team, for whatever reason baseball in Florida just doesn’t seem to work
mike67
It almost sounds like they want to do with the Rays what they did with the Expos…
Remember the “home” games in Puerto Rico?
stormie
Would it really result in more travel though? It’s not like they’d be jumping back and forth between Tampa and Montreal in the same homestand; I’m sure it would be structured so that they would have typical homestands of 2-3 series in one city, go on the road, then have a homestand in the other city. Also, Montreal is a lot closer to their A.L East rivals than Tampa.
southpaw2153
As a Yankee fan that wouldn’t mind seeing Harper in pinstripes come 2019, if they, or any team, gives Harper a 4 to 5 hundred million dollar contract, they need to have their heads examined.
bravesfan88
Looking at Harper’s future contract is interesting, to say the least, but it is also scary. Yes, he is a relative generational talent, but there should be a cap for player’s salaries.
I’m not suggesting there should be a salary cap, but for examples like Trout and Harper, there definitely should be a reasonable limit. Otherwise, I could see it pushing boundaries never before even thought of when it comes to players contracts in baseball….
We are talking about a single contract that could ultimately come fairly close to rivaling some team’s total payroll…Idk about you guys, but that does, personally, scare me.
kiermaier
salary caps ruin sports, and owners make so much money in one season soI have no problem with the amount of money players are getting.
Mark 21
The rosters are set at 25 man rosters. So a salary cap of say 35 million is not out of line. Why is it hard for people to see a team can still have 10 players in 5 years making 30 million each. A salary cap does not mean a owner will be able to pocket more money unless you are talking the Marlins. They will always find a way to be bottom feeders. and suck revenue sharing money.
mookiessnarl
Any time you limit the amount of money that can be spent on payroll or a player the extra money goes to the owner. Unless you think they’ll turn down TV revenue or not raise ticket prices? No way to do any sort of salary cap without making ownership richer.
bravesfan88
I’m just stating that there should be a cap on how much an individual player can make per year.
No player should make half as much as any team’s payroll a year..and that very well could just about be what Harper might get on the market.
Yes, there is alot of if’s, maybe’s, possibly’s, etc., but like I said it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out. I don’t think Harper believes he owes the Nats anything, so I fully expect him to hit the free agent market…Also, if I was him, I would definitely do it, so I can’t say I blame him really…
Because of their being no rules, him and his agent should shoot for the moon, as far as an asking price goes…I’m just curious ultimately how much he will get..
Although, I will say it again, no one player should be able to fetch half a team’s salary per year, but I guess if they can get it….so be it…
Niekro
Is Harper really worth 200 million more than Stanton? The Montreal thing would be the scam of the century getting not just one but two cities to build stadiums for a part time team? Or would they renovate olympic stadium?
kiermaier
well harper is better then stanton, since he is a better fielde,r better baserunner and can hit for average so I think so
Niekro
That is not worth 200 million more dollars,
stl_cards16 2
It would have a lot to do with it being 4 years later and the Marlins buying out arb years
User 4245925809
Using that flawd reasoning, think not or Mike Trout would be making 600m+.
dany1216
Stanton is a much better fielder and has a higher career OPS.
Niekro
400 Million seems very fair when factoring in that Harper will be on the open market, the idea hes already balking at it, someone is going to overpay by a lot, IMO.
dany1216
I have no doubt that he will get 400-500 million I just wanted to point out his flawed reasoning there are many reasons he will get more, durability and the market being among them.
gregsuhrstedt
People need to stop with the Bryce Harper $400+ million crap. There’s no way in hell any team will pay him anything more than $300 mil. Most people forget that fact that his first 3 years in the league he hit in the low .270’s and had trouble staying healthy. Mike Trout was exceptionally better going into his extension and got $144.5 million.
kiermaier
Harper got up in the majors at 19 he needed time to grow into a better overall player and he did it this year he is still very young and is likely going to get better
virginiascopist
He was also injured during both his age 20 and 21 seasons.
Ray Ray
There is a big difference between an extension and a free agent contract. A free agent contract will almost definitely be larger because he would have teams competing against each other for his services. That drives up the price. I also think it is foolish to even be talking about a Harper free agency since there are still two full baseball seasons to play before that happens. It’s not the same case, but two full seasons ago, Pedro Alvarez looked like a candidate for a very big contract too. Injuries can happen. Regression could happen. Anything could happen.
Stuart Brown
Trout’s extension covered 3 arb years and 3 free agent years. Not comparable. What may be comparable though is part of that deal: the FA years it covers. Valued at roughly $34MM per year, many writers at the time of the extension agreed that he could’ve commanded more than that AAV for those three years on the open market. Trout took less money as a form of security, while still securing those FA years at an extremely premium pay rate.
If Trout were to have hit the open market on normal time (no extension) with no issues and his usual performance, he easily would be the first $400MM player, potentially the first $500MM player. Harper has a chance to do the same provided that he maintains his improvements from last season. Trout, realistically, also has just as good of a chance (if not a significantly better chance) at doing it when he hits FA prior to the 2021 season.
Gogerty
I think most are forgetting the major factor in the Harper Trout scenario, which team signs them. Boras historically does not extend players in arbitration (Trout did). When Harper becomes a FA the Yankees with have CC, McCann(Sanchez), Tex(Bird), A-Rod, and Beltran(Judge) off the books, about $110 million with prospects expected to replace them. I think at that point they will have plenty of AAV to throw his way. Just another opinion though.
dylanp5030
Sure, and the Phillies have exactly zero dollars commited to payroll that year. Harper will get 400+ million with opt outs and protection…the works. He’s worth it.
ayoitzmickeyy
True but the Phillies won’t beat the Yankees in a bidding war
dylanp5030
I don’t see why you’d say that. They’ll have more money and a real young core of players. I do think Bryce will go to Yankees eventually, but I don’t think it’ll necessarily be because they outbid everyone else.
Anthony Cunningham
My impression was that Harper meant that he was being short-changed THESE days for his production, not that $400,000,000 would be short-changing him down the road.
Stuart Brown
I took it as a lighthearted reply, with some small bit of seriousness behind it. I don’t think we’re too far off from seeing a contract like that, though, and Harper and Trout definitely have the best shots at it in the near term due to their age and talent. A pitcher like Jose Fernandez may find himself up there as well if he stays healthy.
myplane150
40 to 50 million bucks a year?!? When ARod signed for so much more than everyone else back in 200?, I saw this as a sign that baseball was going to overprice itself someday. With Greinke getting 34 million a year and now Harper ‘valued’ at up to 50 per, baseball has now reached the upper levels of lunacy. Will this ever end and will fans be able to afford it? This blue collar sport we all love has now officially become white collar corporate.
stormie
Baseball is the cheapest of the four major sports to see live and I doubt that will change any time soon just because contracts are going up, That is a result of all sorts of extra revenue in the game already, not because teams are going to have to jack up ticket prices (which are only a fraction of their revenue) to try and compensate.
Logjammer D"Baggagecling
No one should be getting 40-50 mil a year for 6 months out of the year. That is ridunkulous. Then agian is a guy like Cody Ross can get 30 mil over 3 years. then Literally any player of any skill can get that. Ross was never even above average. He had one above average year. I don;t care how good Harper is.. He shouldn’t get a contract for 400 mil. However Giacarlo Stanton is smart he will opt out of that Marlins contract and go to a winning team. The problem is he can’t stay healthy so there’s no way he touches 300mil again. The Marlins need so much help one player and one pitcher will not win you a WS any time soon. They have a few good players but none are superstar players. Plus it’s the Marlins. 2-3 years from now Fernandez will be traded because he’ll want Price money for longer years. History has shown pitchers that sign 6-7 year deals are always bad. There isn’t a sing;e long term pitcher contract that ended up being good.
CursedRangers
So Harper deserves to be the highest paid player on the planet? His marketing reach is that powerful? He’s not even the best player in baseball. Not saying he’s not good, but over $50 million a year? Come on, that’s crazy!
He deserves to have a salary more than twice that of Lebron James? More than twice that of Aaron Rodgers (highest paid player in the NFL at $22M a year)? Harper’s international stardom is worth as much as the highest salaried soccer player in Messi?
I’m sorry but this is a joke if it happens. Messi can single handily win any match he plays in. Without a top notch QB NFL teams can hardly compete. Lebron James and Steph Curry could go to any team in the NBA and make them a contender.
How many World Series have the Nationals won with Harper on the team? If he is that good, and worth that much surely they would be lighting the playoffs up every year. He’s surrounded by talent, but yet his team can’t do jack in the playoffs. If Harper was to miss a month of games, how much different would their record look?
Yes baseball players play more games, but it’s not nearly the toll football players take. Heck the hardest hit Harper took last year was when Papelbon slapped him.
Harper’s great, but he’s not the most important athlete on the planet. $50 million is a joke, even if he gets it.