11:40am: MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets that if Kennedy does opt out after two years, he receives a $6MM buyout, so he would actually be opting out of three years and $43MM, as opposed to three years and $49MM.
11:17am: After reportedly agreeing to a deal nearly two weeks ago, the Royals announced on Friday that they have signed right-hander Ian Kennedy to a five-year contract. The Scott Boras client will reportedly be guaranteed a total of $70MM and is said to have secured an opt-out clause that would allow him to re-enter the free agent market after the 2017 season. Kennedy’s contract, however, is significantly backloaded; he’ll earn $7.5MM in 2016 and $13.5MM in 2017, meaning he’d have to forgo a guaranteed $49MM from 2018-20 in order to again test free agency (entering his age-33 season).
Kennedy notably rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres earlier this offseason, a decision that now looks astute, as he will receive a lucrative long-term deal despite a somewhat sketchy recent history and the fact that he’ll cost his new team a top draft pick. Kennedy posted mediocre numbers in 2015, with a solid 9.3 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 but with a 4.28 ERA and 31 home runs allowed in 168 1/3 innings.
Kennedy did allow only 11 homers in the second half versus 20 in the first. His home run totals throughout the 2015 season were also perhaps somewhat high given his underlying numbers, and he had a strong season in San Diego in 2014. But his struggles to control the long ball last year were still hard to ignore.
Kennedy’s qualifying offer, his underwhelming performance and the large number of good free agent pitchers available did not prevent him from receiving a lucrative contract, however. And the opt-out is icing on the cake, adding considerable value to the deal by potentially giving Kennedy one more chance to land a big free agent contract at age 33, should his first two years in Kansas City go well. Opt-outs have, of course, become increasingly common this winter, and even a non-top-tier free agent in Scott Kazmir received one. But it’s still a bit surprising that Kennedy would get one on a $70MM deal, as the financial outlay of the deal looks rather generous even before considering the opt-out.
For the Royals, the appeal of adding a starting pitcher is obvious. Despite winning the World Series in 2015, the team’s 4.34 rotation ERA was fourth-worst in the American League. They had not yet significantly upgraded that rotation this offseason, and they projected to open with a staff consisting of Edinson Volquez, Yordano Ventura, Kris Medlen, Danny Duffy and veteran Chris Young. Kennedy should, at the very least, significantly improve their rotation depth.
To some extent, also, K.C. is betting that there’s positive regression to come. Metrics such as SIERA (3.61 last year) could be a better gauge of Kennedy’s true talent than his underwhelming earned run average. His weaknesses might also be somewhat minimized in Kansas City. While Kauffman Stadium is by no means a pitcher’s park, it does limit home runs, and the Royals’ strong outfield defense should help Kennedy turn his fly balls into outs.
But the organization is also simply continuing a well-established strategy of seeking durability in its starters, as it has in the past with pitchers like Edinson Volquez, Jason Vargas, and Jeremy Guthrie. Kennedy has made at least thirty starts in every season dating back to 2010. Though he hasn’t always reached 200 innings annually, the length of his outings is probably of less importance to the Royals — with their deep and excellent pen — than is his ability to take the ball every fifth day.
The deal also marks somewhat of a milestone for the Royals, who appear to be heading into 2016 with a set of commitments that are, for them, unprecedented. With Alex Gordon now back under contract, Kansas City already had $113MM in commitments. Add in Mike Moustakas’ as-yet-undetermined arbitration-year salary and Kennedy’s deal, and the Royals’ 2016 Opening Day payroll could top $130MM, as MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets. That figure will fly past their $113MM Opening Day payroll in 2015, to say nothing of their series of eight-figure Opening Day payrolls before that.
For yet more evidence of Kansas City’s enhanced willingness and ability to spend, it bears noting that Kennedy becomes the second record-breaking deal the organization has struck this winter. Gordon’s contract was (and still is) the largest single obligation ever entered into the Royals’ payroll ledger, topping the much earlier Mike Sweeney and Gil Meche contracts, while Kennedy takes over for Meche with the team’s top overall commitment to a pitcher.
Due to the qualifying offer, the Royals will give up the No. 24 overall pick in the draft. The Padres will receive a pick at the end of the first round.
Jon Heyman first reported the agreement and the terms (Twitter link). ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reported the opt-out clause (also via Twitter). Heyman later added further details on the contract’s backloaded nature (Twitter link).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Smart move by Kennedy and the Royals. He should pitch very well there, especially with their defense and ballpark.
this is the same deal shields got last year with the padres but he got an opt out clause, I don’t understand why the royals didn’t give him that kind of deal last year, shields is a way better pitcher then kennedy.
If shields got that deal from KC there would be no morales, volquez, or ( Cueto trade)
Shields had a solid track record, Kennedy does not is the difference. i really hate to see KC throw away money like this when they can’t really afford to gamble like this with such a large contract for them, he’s (to me) another Nolasco type gamble.
The Royals didn’t have the money to signed Shields, then sign Morales, Volquez, and Rios. Those three played a much larger role in the teams success then Shields would have. This deal with Kennedy is also a 2 year deal that the Royals can opt out of in 2017 if he drops off. If you take out the awful defensive play the Padres have, Kennedy is sporting a 3.70 ERA. If you take away the first two months of the year (first 8 starts) Kennedy threw for a 3.42 ERA. The Royals defense and the stadium itself should provide Kennedy much success. This is a good deal.
You idiot. The Royals can’t opt out of the Kennedy deal. Kennedy is the one with the opt out. If he pitches poorly he’ll stay in KC. If he pitches REALLY well he’ll opt out. You seriously need to learn how opt outs work.
You have an interesting definition of the word “same”.
Shields got $75M over 4 years.
Shields was looking for 5 years and $100 million when he first hit free agency. No one bit on that. He turned down 5 years and $80 million from the Giants and didn’t even sign until a week before pitchers and catchers reported to camp. He will make $20 million a year in years 2-4 in the deal he got from San Diego, but nowhere near what he was looking for to begin with.
Smart deal for KC?? I’m blown away that KC spent this much money on Kennedy this guy is average at best! I Totally thought he would get around a Kazmir deal! I just don’t see him living up to this deal!
He’s one of better guys out there but man are mediocre guys making good money now a days. Not saying that players don’t deserve it, but I would have signed Yovani instead for that kind of money.
No, he actually isn’t “one of the better guys out there”. He’s stunningly average.
Of the guys remaining? Yeah you can say that Cliff Lee / Doug Fister has more upside but who else do you have in mind?
Oh you said “out there” not “out there remaining”. I thought you were talking about all MLB players.
I’d definitely take Lee over everyone, even with his injury. I’ll take Gallardo over Kennedy but they’re roughly the same…only I’m not Gallardo will get 70 mill.
Sorry to not be specific enough dude. I agree with you that Gallardo and Kennedy are similar but Gallardo is two years younger and has a slightly better FIP. I think you’re right that they are both at best 3-4 types so doesn’t really matter which one you take, but I’d still give the slight edge to Gallardo for his age.
This coming from a Rangers fan that saw all of Gallardo’s starts last year … he’s lost major velocity and movement. Production is trending the wrong way. Not the same guy he was with the Brewers. He’s got by on grit and smarts and mixing things up just enough to keep hitters off balance. Rangers know when to cut ties with their pitchers in recent years (Joe Nathan, Eric Gagne, etc.) They were praying he’d accept the QO to get them a draft pick. As for Kennedy, I agree he’s not any better, but the chance he can outperform Gallardo is better. I wouldn’t have given that contract to either personally, and would have improved my rotation through the trade market earlier in the offseason. The free agent pool is weak.
GALLARDO IS WAY BETTER PITCHER THEN KENNEDY !!!
Gallardo is really just one year younger, and when you look at their IP he has actually thrown about 270 more IP than Kennedy over their careers. So as they say, it’s not the years it’s the miles.
Still surprised the Royals paid this much and agreed to this long a contract.
So, a huge gap between Gallardo and Kennedy but no pitcher in between? Or is that suppose to be “THAN”?
Over the last 4 years, Kennedy has a net negative WAR. The going rate for that now is $14M a year? Wow. Phillies got a steal in Hellickson then paying him $7M for a seemingly similar pitcher. Yes I know the Phillies traded a lower level prospect but still. The money these average guys make is nuts.
I just don’t understand how you can look at Kennedy and Gallardo and pick Kennedy.
Moving from the NL to the AL doesn’t seem like a good move either.
Couldn’t agree with you more.
Look at Gallardo’s second half vs Kennedy’s second half and that should tell you everything you need to know.
Volquez did it, and he seemed to be just fine.
Kennedy has worked with Eiland. Gallardo hasn’t.
Completely agree these deals make some of the deals signed previously look so good. Couple of them being the Kazmir / Lackey / Maeda deals that were short in duration or incentive based.
I actually think Kennedy is a perfect fit in Kauffman. I agree that Yovani is likely a better pitcher, but Kennedy is a strike thrower and notorious fly ball pitcher. No one in baseball has better outfield defense than the Royals, not to mention that it is already hard to hit a home run there. Royals needed an innings eater, and they got one. I think Ian Kennedy will thrive in Kansas City.
I actually think Kennedy is a perfect fit in Kauffman. I agree that Yovani is likely a better pitcher, but Kennedy is a strike thrower and notorious fly ball pitcher. No one in baseball has better outfield defense than the Royals, not to mention that it is already hard to hit a home run there. Royals needed an innings eater, and they got one. I think Ian Kennedy will thrive in Kansas City. —
Lackey is 37 years old. He was never going to get more than the two year deal that he did.
No, Hellickson is still arbitration eligible meaning he can’t earn as much as a Free Agent.
Huh? Kennedy’s WAR for the past 4 years has been. 7.4. Where are you getting this “net negative” stuff from?
Gallardo scares me. His K rate has been dropping precipitously. Kennedy’s has been on the rise.
He’s going to the AL, yes, but also to a team with a much better defense. Should roughly even out.
This wasn’t a great signing by any means, but it also wasn’t a horrible one. $14M per year seems about right, though if I was the Royals, I would have pushed for 4 years instead of 5.
I think he was probably on baseball-reference.com. That site’s metrics are notoriously low on Kennedy.
Good deal for both in my opinion. He has s chance to pitch well in Kansas City. Their field and defense should benefit Kennedy.
I think this is longer and larger than most expected – but I think Kemmedy will do well in KC – and the Royals scouts clearly love what they see.
While I assumed the Royals would go more like 3 years on him – this $70 mil slots in about right after Samardjiza’s 90 mil, Chen and Leakes $80 mil and Kazmirs $16 AAV.
I am with you. Very surprised, and not happy at all, with this contract. I was prepared for a 3/36, and would not have been happy with the signing even under those terms.
But what the hell. It is not my money. If David Glass is willing to spend some of the HUGE PILE of profit he amassed over the last 20 years of ownership I should not get bent too out of shape over this addition. I think Kennedy will improve the team.
Dayton Moore does a lot of things well, but one thing he does very poorly is judge the free agent market rate of mid to high-tier free agents. I think he paid much more than he needed to here, something he has done several times in the past.
One funny point. Moore gave Kennedy almost exactly as much as he gave Gordon. If Moore was willing to spend $70M on Ian Kennedy, why did he drag his feet for two months giving it to Alex Gordon? Does he really think the two players are of equal value?
The difference is Alex Gordon essentially took less than what his predicted market was whereas Ian Kennedy surpassed his expected contract range. I do think Alex wanted to stay in KC but I think it was more along the lines of if he wasn’t going to get the deal he was hoping for, he may as well go back to KC (ie I think teams would’ve loved him at 80 overall but he may as well have took the 10 million discount and not uprooted his life.
His contract is perfect. If he’s good, the Royals can keep him for 5 years. If he’s bad, the Royals dump him after 2 years. Why is that bad?
That isn’t the way opt outs work. If he is good, he can opt out in search of more guaranteed money. If he is bad, he doesn’t opt out and the team is still on the hook for the last three years.
Terms to the deal haven’t been released yet. We know it’s a 5 year deal with opt-out after 2 years. Everything else has been speculation. But Kennedy is a better pitcher then his numbers show. His xFIP is one bit that helps show that.
No, he’s right – that’s not how any of this works.
Wow that’s a lot of money and years to give to a guy who just had a 4.25 ERA in the most pitcher friendly park in the majors.
Buying the age 31-35 seasons of a guy who has a career 3.99 FIP is not smart GMing.
Looks like the old GMDM is back! We missed him, it was honestly kind of weird when he was making wise moves.
Eh – that Petco being an extreme pitchers park isn’t really proving out in the numbers anymore. I mean it’s not Coors or anything – but it’s not “the most pitcher friendly park in the majors” anymore either.
Kauffman is pretty pitcher friendly and id say go from a poor defense to one of, if not the, best will surely help him out.
Maybe, but giving up a draft pick and wildly overpaying by about $40M doesn’t make that worthwhile.
The K is more hitter friendly than pitcher. Petco isnt what it once was but it is still way more pitcher friendly than the K.
Fences moved…. Over sized scoreboard added.
Petco has become a mid ranged Park for scoring.
Dear lord is that an overpay for a guy who’s nothing but an innings eater at this point.
Look at his FIPs – yikes. He’s a back end guy at best. Royals made a booboo here.
thats what shields did, he pitched well with kc with a great defense behind him, and look how he did with the padres. I kinda see shields opting out of his contract and going back to the royals next year.
That seems to be the excuse now-a-days. Giving quite a bit of money to a “innings eater”. Which is code for “we don’t have the money to pay a better starter, and have no one in our system. So let’s sign this guy who is average and let the bullpen keep him together at the seams.”
Giving up the draft pick too on Kennedy is so insane to me.
A draft pick in the high 20s? Do you know what the likelihood is that player ever makes the major leagues – let along makes an impact?
Fairly likely. Not something to give up to get a pitchers of Kennedy’s quality. Elite talent, sure. Kennedy is just a guy, not a star, not even a star ceiling.
Actually the royals have just been trading their late first round picks for starters during the season anyway. The only first rounders on the team that went to 2 straight World Series are: Gordon, hosmer, moustakas, hochevar, and colon. All were top 5 picks. They’ve kept their other top 5 picks in house with Zimmer and starling. I guess butler was a late first rounder but the Beane counter signed him to a terrible deal.
“Have been”
They did that once, right? This past season when going all in and trading for Zobrist and Cueto. Which indicates that keeping and making that pick puts them in a better position to make an all in move when doing so will have the most impact rather than, I don’t know, signing Ian Kennedy for $70m during the offseason.
Should they have paid the money it took to get Price or Greinke? They overpaid for Kennedy, but all of the money that people are getting is a bit sick if you ask me.
Why look at his FIP’s ( an ERA indicator) when you could just look at his ERA? FIP is not consistant with all pitchers. Some always outpitch their FIP.
ERA includes defense and rewards pitchers who aren’t good who just happen to have a good defense behind them and penalizes others for being supported by a bad defense.
Judge the pitcher himself, not the team.
Using a stat independent of defense isn’t particularly useful considering Kennedy is going to play for the best DEF in baseball.
ERA also includes how hard the balls are hit when they don’t leave the park, which more than makes up for the defense argument. Pitchers do have some control over their BABIP (and SLGBIP), after all. FIP is a better predictor when dealing with small samples sizes, but when dealing with large enough samples such as multiple seasons’ worth of data, a stat like ERA that tells you what actually happened is the better way to go.
Seems like a decent move by the Royals, He should benefit from the huge upgrade in defense. Not sure he’s also worth the first round draft pick but good for him to get 5 years.
If the argument is that a mediocre – at best – player will all of a sudden be great when playing in KC, then why would you pay top dollar for it?
Wow, Kazmir’s deal keeps looking better and better
Looking more like a bargain every time a pitcher comes off the board lol.
Pelfrey’s deal just keeps looking bad.
Ugh 70m and a pick for a team with 5 sufficient starters (Volquez, Ventura, Duffy, Young and Medlen)?
If they wanted depth just give Aaron Harang or Scott Baker or someone a spring training invite or trade for a high upside long reliever like Despaigne. Not a great move.
They have Jason Vargas signed through 2017 too.
Your list of starters (you actually left out Gee – who could fill in) is exactly why the Royals needed to add a guy that could make 30 starts, miss bats, and put up a 4 ERA. Ventura is still inconsistent – we have no idea if Duffy is a MLB starter – Young will be in the pen half the year to preserve his arm.
Exactly…Can’t plan on going into a season with five starters, especially those five…Good move, I think he’ll succeed and opt out after 2017(and I assume we can offer a qualifying pick and get a pick in return if that is the case)…
Scott Boras is kind of good at his job
Yeah, he really should expand his horizons more than just baseball. I wonder how he’d fare in other industries.
I’m shocked! I thought KC was smarter than this. I haven’t really checked but their farm system evidently doesn’t have much in the way of starting pitching thats close to be big league ready. 5 years?
Holy cow that is an insanely bad contract. Kennedy is mediocre by almost all measures and has been declining for several years now. Seriously I thought the Ervin Santana contract was one of the worst contracts ever, but this one is far worse.
-Overpay by $40M? Check.
-Ignore cheaper and just as good options? Check.
-Give up a draft pick? Check.
GMDM!! I know he got a title but he was a laughingstock for years for good reason. Looks like he pulled this “retro Dayton Moore move” to appease all those who have been watching him for a long time, haha.
Weird that they are spending the money right now as well.
They need to keep some money left to at least try to resign Hosmer and Moose right?
Or they could go for another World Series for the next two years and benefit from the extra revenue, and use that to extend a couple of their guys. They don’t have much on the books past 2017.
Gil Meche returns to KC!
Lot of money for a guy with an ERA of 5.47 against the AL
Really amazing deal IMO. Give up pick 24 to sign a player that has been marginal.
Royal’s are still deep with prospects, but I guess their board @24 meant taking a flyer on Kennedy was the way to go. Time will tell. I think Kennedy is in declining mode.
BAD DEAL.
There can be only ONE conclusion here:
Boras is a Jedi.
interesting analogy…… Who does Boras still have out there?
What have been his dismal failures in the last season or so?
He plays hard and there have been burns.
I am remembering Fielder, Scherzer, and now Chris Davis and Ian Kennedy.
In all 4 cases, the teams bid against themselves and overpaid by a lot.
Could he be a Sith?
Absolutely.
hes definitely dark side.
Funny, everyone hates Dayton Moore’s moves, then he starts hanging flags yet people continue to hate his moves. I think he’s earned the benefit of the doubt. I think Kennedy has a very good chance to be a very solid pitcher in KC for the next couple of years which will mean he will opt out after 2017. The window is open for the next two seasons, pretty sure everyone knows Eric Hosmer will price himself out of KC after 2017, they are hesitant to extend Cain past 2017 given his age and his style of play and most likely Moose will also be moving on. I think they have the ability to rebuild somewhat on the move after that, but for right now the next two seasons they have a real chance to contend, despite what all of the projections show(they prove to be so accurate regarding this franchise obviously) Reuniting with Eiland, who I feel is a very underrated pitching coach is a big part of this deal. Sucks to lose a draft pick, but I would be very surprised if Kennedy is not an above average pitcher in 2016-17. My preference was Chen(not Bruce) but I am happy with the signing and think this solidifies the starting pitching staff, possibly keeping Duffy in the pen, making it once again one of the deepest and best in the game.
There is absolutely no chance that Kennedy opts out in two years
The Royals better hope Kennedy opts-out after the 2017 because his performance didn’t warrant a 5 year deal.
If Kennedy’s performance in his first two years in KC is good enough to warrant him exercising his opt out, why would the Royals want him to do so?
When evaluating Kennedy, do keep in mind San Diego’s putrid defense. There is not a statistic that could truly account for how bad, collectively, that defense was last year.
Not that I’m saying Kennedy will have an amazing or great year in Kansas City, but I do think he will bounce back, have a good two seasons, and I believe he will provide KC with a solid, albeit unspectacular, #3 option.
There’s no defense for giving up home runs. Kennedy was very astute at that last year. The ball park won’t make a difference when you’re serving up meat.
Kennedy got 70 million.. and an opt out?? Thats hilarious.. no wonder the orioles arent biting on these bums
Funny you said that – cause the Kennedy and Chris Davis news came out about the same time.
About the first thing I said was “well I sure rather pay Kennedy 70 mil than pay Chris Davis 160 mil.
This is the worst deal of the entire offseason. Was anyone else even bidding on Kennedy?
The idea that Kennedy will give up fewer HR in KC is insane. He already threw more than half of the time in SD, SF, and LA. Going to the AL central he’ll be throwing fewer games in pitcher friendly parks.
Unlike other pitchers that pitched poorly, Kennedy was around his career numbers, but a lot of people like him because of the strikeouts. If you think about it, strikeouts are like hits, and strikeout percentage is like batting average. Adjusted ERA is like OBP. So ask anyone, what’s more important? Batting average or OBP?
If the Royals got Kennedy on the cheap, I could understand that. Instead, they drastically overpaid. Why?!?!?
He’ll be gone after 2017 like everybody else. I don’t mind giving up the draft pick to improve the team now but if he can’t keep the ball in the yard it’s an expensive marginal upgrade. Do the Royals push Duffy to the pen and go with an entirely right-handed rotation or does he start and Medlen, Young and Gee battle it out for the 5th spot? Not exactly an embarrassment of riches by any means but it’s a far cry better than what it was. Any obvious deals coming around the bend for a lefty reliever?
He’ll only be gone if puts up two good seasons otherwise there is no chance he walks away from the guarantee. Horrible deal for KC.
If he’s horrible he’s still probably an improvement over their internal options for this year. 2018 is likely the start of a rebuild. That’s assuming they don’t have to begin the rebuild halfway through the 2017 season. If they’re rebuilding it won’t matter if they’ve got dead money in him and the ghost of Alex Gordon at the end of their deals. Plus the defense and ballpark should help.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not a massive fan of the signing but I’m not sickened by it like a lot of people. More disgusted at the market for these meh pitchers. I’d have rather seen RF improved or the money pocketed for the potential extension of one of their current guys. An innings chewer is big for this club though. It keeps Ned from having to make decisions in the 5th/6th
How will he be gone after 2017? No one is trading for him and he’s not going to opt out.
Now that we know how back loaded the deal is, I agree with you. Don’t like the deal at all. I think most people suspected the deal would be front loaded and would give him an opportunity for another big pay day in two years if he pitches well. This pretty much eliminates any possibility of getting back any of Cain, Hosmer, Davis, Moustakas after their contracts run out.
Sure is a lot of Negative Nancy’s about this signing. Same type of haters said the same thing about Kendrys Morales last year. They did a piece on MLB Network a couple days ago and every analyst said they would take Kennedy over Gallardo (has lost a lot of velocity on his fastball) or any of the other remaining free agents.. For one Dave Eiland knows Ian very well and to me that is very important. Secondly Kennedy has a higher strike out ratio, lower walk rate, and more innings pitches than all the others. His first 8 starts of the season were disastrous but after that he pitched to a 3.17 era. I guarantee Ian’s era will be in the low 3’s next year and will pitch over 180 innings. I have faith in Dayton and a lot of you naysayers need to trust what he is doing. To me it was a very good sign.
Kennedy hasn’t had an ERA+ that was even average in four years. He is a #5 starter.
“I guarantee Ian’s era will be in the low 3’s next year”
Well I’ve defended the move – but that might be a little TOO optimistic. I’m perfectly happy with this deal if he is in between 3.75-4.00…and I think that is very possible.
Wow. This is potentially the worst deal I’ve ever seen, right up there with Vernon Wells. Kennedy has been terrible for three straight years and it hasn’t been the result of bad luck or bad defense. If Boras can get this kind of deal for Kennedy, then as a Mets fan, I’m pretty terrified at what he can get Harvey. What a stunning overpay.
Oh get out of here with that drama queen nonsense. This has every possibility of being a reasonable contract
Drama queen nonsense? The Royals, who are a small market team and can’t afford to hand out bad deals, just gave $70 million to a #4 or #5 starter. AND gave up a draft pick. Kennedy hasn’t even been average in four years.
If they wanted a mediocre pitcher to eat innings, they could have traded for Jonathan Niese (and had much less of a commitment) or signed any number of other pitchers to smaller deals, for example Bartolo Colon. This is a massive overpay, especially when a guy like Doug Fister is out there asking for 2/$22 million. Who, by the way, pitched much better than Kennedy last year and was light-years ahead of him the previous two.
Terrible for threw straight years? What about his 2014 season, where he put up a 3.63 ERA with a 3.21 FIP? Or his second half of 2015, where he had a 3.64 ERA and a 3.50 FIP? He has the ability to pitch well enough to make this a perfectly reasonable contract.
A 3.63 era and a 3.64 era at Petco is indeed terrible. Check out his ERA+ and WAR.
Well, you’ve officially invalidated any previous comments you’ve made. Learn a bit more and try again.
Maybe you should learn a bit more. Look at his ERA+ and WAR. Seriously, go do it. He pitches in Petco.
Funny that you’re using unadjusted ERA to evaluate this guy, but *I’m* the one that needs to learn more.
It’s quite possible that the Royals see the opt out as a good thing, since they expect Boras to almost always spin the roulette wheel for more money.
The opt out is definitely a potential plus for the Royals. If he’s good enough to opt out fur a bigger contract – that means he’s earned his 2 for 28. And it frees that remaining money up just when the Riyals will need it
An opt out is NEVER a plus for the team. If the player in question overperforms then they opt out in search of more money. Otherwise it has next to no effect on the contract.
They should sign Upton or Cespy, since they lost their pick.
Just kidding btw. For those that are bright enough to take this comment seriously.
Explain how Kennedy is better right now than Pelfrey.
Pelfrey had a better 2015 and had no draft pick albatross.
Kennedy is a year younger.
Both are below 100 in ERA+ for their careers (meaning, they both have been BELOW league average pitchers for their careers).
Both are represented by Boras.
Both have pitched 1200+ innings in their career
Pelfrey signed for 2 years, $16MM
Kennedy signed for 5 years $70MM
Tigers win.
Pelfrey gave up more hits, strikes out less batters, hasn’t pitched 2 consecutive seasons of over 100 innings since 10-11, never struck out more than 120 batters in a season, has less quality starts and walks more batters. Kennedy has 6 seasons in a row of 180 plus innings.
Kennedy is good for 180 ip and 170 ks. And has done it for the last 6 years. Pelfrey has never been able to do that.
Pelfrey at his best is equivalent to Kennedy at his worst.
People need to chill out. It’s essentially a 2 year deal, but if he’s good they can keep him longer. The next 2 years have horrible SP hitting FA. Kennedy is familiar with Eiland already, fits with the ball park, and his xFIP is a 3.70 with a horrible defense. Imagine the Royals defense with him.
Why is everyone all upset about this? “Spend money Glass, but don’t spend $70M on a pitcher!”
Very wrong. It’s essentially a 5-year deal but if he’s REALLY good they lose him after 2 years.
If he’s good, why would he stay longer? That makes no sense. Youre most likely stuck with him for the next 5 years
FIP is Feilding Independent Pitching. In other words, his awful FIP is an indication that it wasn’t the bad defenses fault that he stunk.
How are you going to give someone a buyout on an opt-out? Horrible contract.
The more I find out, the worse this becomes for the Royals. A horrible pitcher that is getting about what he deserves in the 1st year, but gets $13.5 per year AAV for both years if he opts out? What the heck was Moore thinking?
$15.8 million is more than double the $7.5 he is getting in 2016 and the FA class after the 2016 season is one of the worst in decades, so not so astute a move by Kennedy and his agent. When this guys ERA blows up again in 2016, its going to be an equally bad deal for the Royals.
SOOOOOOO glad that the Royals signed him and Preller did not pursue bringing Kennedy back.
“When this guys ERA blows up again in 2016, its going to be an equally bad deal for the Royals.”
With that in mind, this was a VERY astute move by Kennedy and his caddy Scott Boras.
Giving him a QO was definitely questionable at the time, but it looks like it paid off in a huge way.
classic case, NL pitcher goes to AL and gets lit up
That’s why they play the game.