It’s been a largely quiet offseason so far for outfielder Dexter Fowler, and that’s surprising in some ways. On the other hand, the market moved first for pitchers, and we’ve seen a steady stream of outfield signings since we hit 2016. With players in front of him such as Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, and Alex Gordon, not to mention more direct competition in the former of Denard Span and the still-unsigned Austin Jackson, Fowler has simply had to wait.
While pre-winter predictions may no longer really apply, and the qualifying offer seems an increasing burden, that doesn’t mean that Fowler isn’t in demand. After all, he’s yet to turn 30, is capable of playing up the middle, and has consistently produced at the plate. Since the start of 2013, Fowler owns a 112 OPS+, and he swatted a career-best 17 long balls last year.
MLBTR’s Steve Adams and I talked through his market in last week’s podcast, and our own Tim Dierkes looked at every team in the league in relation to Fowler in his newsletter yesterday. (You can find information for subscribing to that free weekly feature right here.)
There are some good options still, though it’s hard to peg a clear favorite. Tim wrote that he sees the most plausible landing spots — for a variety of reasons, and under different scenarios — as the White Sox, Brewers, Giants, Indians, Orioles, Rangers, Athletics, Angels, Cardinals, Padres, and Phillies. From my perspective, a reunion with the Cubs still seems plausible, though as Tim noted that might only make sense in the event of a trade.
Which of those teams do you think seems most likely? Or, could a dark horse emerge?
He will be a White Sox.
The sox are stupid but I don’t think they’re stupid enough to give the Cubs their first round pick for this guy.. But we’ll see.
It would be their 2nd round pick. Top 10 picks are protected, and White Sox are #10..
Please go to the White Sox. As a Cubs fan, I really want to see what Soler has to offer in a healthy full season.
But wouldn’t you rather push heywards defense to right?
As a Cubs fan I love the potential of Jorge Soler but, with all the offensive talent we already have I’d be fine moving him. It would help in many ways. first I’m scared of the potential Soler might always be injury prone. Second moving him means Fowler in CF and Heyward in RF helps our defense and helps insure our defensive liability of playing Schwarber in RF. Finally moving Soler could bring in a solid number 3 pitcher, which I feel like we have decent depth but, it’d be nice to have a younger solid 3 rather than the 37 year old John Lackey. Aside from Lackey we have basically the same rotation and depth and that staff did not give me any confidence in the postseason.
Fowler playing regularly and “helps our defense” don’t usually go together. But in this case, I would have to agree.
Agreed
The Diamondbacks are being overlooked as a good landing spot. He’d work great in a 4 man OF rotation replacing a lot of what was lost with Inciarte. More bat, less defense, better OBP, good base-runner. Basically he’d be a perfect leadoff man, something the D-backs lost with Inciarte. He’d also provide some much needed insurance for the unproven Tomas.
I see 2nd base as more of a priority than another OFer and if they aren’t willing to give up their 2nd round pick for Kendrick (wisely) I don’t see it for Fowler
No way a team gives up a draft pick for a 4th outfielder. No way Fowler signs to be a 4th outfielder.
Brewers should give an interesting offer. Yes they are rebuilding but like the article says, he’s yet to hit 30. Signing Fowler to a 5/$60-70M would last through the Brewers rebuild and give them a solid CF to build around with Lucroy, Segura and, may I add, Braun already there. That’s a lineup that could go from rebuild to wild card contenders after they bring in a couple more pieces and bring up some prospects.
That would be a terrible idea for the Brewers, who have CFs in the pipeline including Brett Phillips from the Gomez deal. Brewers shouldn’t be thinking more than one-year deals.
Ethanhickey that’s ridiculous. Why would the Brewers give up their 1st rd draft choice for Dexter Fowler? We’re at least 3 years out from contending and would just be spending money to spend money. We have great OF prospects in the waiting, why jeopardize that.?
Top 10 picks are protected, so it would be their 2nd rounder. Which isn’t bad at all for the potential production, which could lead to more prospects if you flip him
Fowler is a below average CF currently. It is not realistic to expect him to still be a CF in 5 years.
It depends on how much you value the pick. Fowler is a useful, solid player, but I’m not sure I would want to commit better than Span money and a pick, when I might be able to sign Jackson for much less/shorter term, and no pick.
I agree, a draft seems much more attractive than a commitment to fowler. Jackson could bounce back, and be a bargain for a team.
Cubs sign him, heyward to corner outfield. Soler/Baez traded to Tampa rays for one or two young starters and closer
Rays don’t want Soler. Costs too much. And the fact that Baez has not been traded already suggests the Rays and others don’t value him very highly. To me, a Baez for Desmond Jennings trade seems pretty fair, but nothing’s happened all off-season despite all the rumors.
1yr/6 million to angels
That’s too low of an offer, he wouldn’t take that
Why would the Angels break the lux cap for Dexter Fowler, when they wouldn’t for Upton/Cespedes/Heyward/Gordon? Or heck even Gerardo Parra?
Angles will sign him
3/33 mil to Braves… They need outfield help and the market sucks right when the Braves are going to actually contend.
We’d love him at the top of the order for the Cardinals!!!!
Well, Carpenter is set at the top of the order, unless he can produce in an RBI spot of the lineup. And if he did move, Wong would probably slide in at leadoff, but because he doesn’t get on base consistently, Fowler would work there. But the Cardinals really hate spending money soo….
It’s more like they hate giving up draft picks for luxuries.
The Indians need his bat in their lineup. Play him in a corner outfield spot and the Indians are in the thick of things…… and I am an Astros fan…..
Angels?
I’m really hoping the Angels make a play for him at or around the Span deal. Maybe trade CJ Wilson and/or Hector Santiago to NYY for Headley and Evoaldi for a bit of cap relief. How far under the luxury tax are they now? Couple mil?
The Yankees wouldn’t trade EITHER of those guys for Wilson. They wouldn’t even consider it. Eovaldi’s already better and Wilson is a one year rental with a $20m contract.
The Angels are actually about $20 million under the tax line. That prevented them from being in on Cespedes or Upton but I think a Fowler signing would fit perfect for them. He is an above average defender in left and he could hit in front of Trout and Pujols.
The Indians will ultim
Subtract all teams without protected picks from this list.
Conversely, whoever has already forfeited many of their draft picks this season should just bite the bullet and sign Fowler too.
I don’t see the Cubs signing him. White Sox, maybe Cardinals.
Fowler will resign with Cubs is my prediction. Soler & Baez will be traded to the Angels or Rays. Depends on if the Rockies & Rays make a trade involving Dickerson. If they make a trade, then definitely Soler & Baez to the Angels who then shift Calhoun to LF & play Baez at 2B.
I’m not sure that the Angels have anything the Cubs would want for that pair, and don’t say Wilson.
The Cubs need bullpen depth and protection at 3B and 1B. Angels have Bedrosian and Tropeano who can help the pen. Tropeano can also give starting depth. The Angels have 2 top 10 3B prospects in Cowart & Kubitza. In the future you could move Bryant to LF & Scwarber to C. The Angels could also include rule 5 draftee 1B Ji-Man Choi. Cubs would have to keep him. He fits better in NL as PH & backup 1B.
Schwarber is never going to be the Cubs full time catcher. It’s a win now team, that has the ROY/All star 3rd baseman. Heck, Baez can probably play 3rd just fine. The only depth they need is starting pitching
The Rangers would love to have them. And we have real prospects such as Gallo and Mazara. Also, Morland may be moved this year
I kinda feel the Royals could sign him, we have a little bit of payroll space and we need to go all in on a right fielder, he is a natural CF but we have Cain, when you have Fowler in an outfield with Gordon and Cain it’s the best defensive outfield in baseball, almost forgot to mention, he hits for some power, he’s a switch hitter and he can hit for an average
That’s not an awful idea. He fits the Royals very nicely. He’s not a traditional RF in any way (his arm stinks) but his OBP would make them even more awesome.
Finally someone doesn’t hate on my ideas
The Q-Offer may have turned ‘Ol Dex into this year’s Stephen Drew…..
As a Sox fan, I hope the Sox don’t give up a top 30 pick for Fowler. He is a good player but not worth losing a top pick in the draft.
He would fit better on the cubs, don’t know about the soler craze. He hasn’t done much outside of catching fire in a couple playoff games. Cubs are built to win now and are a better all around team with Fowler in CF and Heyward in RF.
I believe the White Sox pick is protected.
2/34 million to Giants he’s a good fit as a platoon OFer or Utility guy
Can’t see him going to the Giants. He’d cost the Giants another draft pick and they can find a RH CF-capable OF cheaper if they need one.
White Sox #1 round pick is protected at #10 overall.. However we would give up our Shark compensation pick to sign Fowler, which would be top 40-50 pick I believe, not top 30.
Quintana for Baez and mckinney.. let’s run it. As much as I don’t want to give up Jose we have a surplus of LH starters and should move him to upgrade our outfield, shortstop, or catcher positions. I especially wouldn’t want to give him to the cubs but they have the farm system ripe to poach and we need the help.
The Sox want to win now. I don’t see how this helps accomplish that goal. I don’t think they trade Quintana right now.
The Cardinals aren’t going to give up a draft pick to sign someone like Fowler. While an offensive upgrade would be nice, Fowler is hardly an improvement (if at all) over what they already have between Holliday, Grichuk, and Piscotty in the outfield and Adams (or possibly Moss) at first base.
Should be a White Sox
I cannot believe this guy is still available. Half the teams in the league would be better with him at the top of their order. If he could be had for a reasonable 2 or 3 year deal, even with draft pick comp, a competitive team like the Angels, Cardinals, Mariners, White Sox, or Indians are foolish not to sign him.