The free agent market has steadily advanced in the new year, but significant names remain. Many of them have drawn divergent opinions at times, perhaps none moreso than Yoenis Cespedes. With reports suggesting that Cespedes is receiving heavy interest, and could soon close in on a deal, it seems like an opportune time to get everyone’s predictions.
In this free agent profile, I broke down his benefits and drawbacks while agreeing with MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes that a $140MM guarantee was obtainable. That was in early December, and a seeming market lull made some wonder whether the dollars were drying up. Now, most signings are still coming in at expected values, and the above-cited reports suggest Cespedes won’t need to settle for a pure pillow contract. But will he max out his earning potential?
Opt-outs, options, deferred money, taxes, and the like all weigh in the equation, of course. But those are hard to account for in this sort of exercise, and the bottom-line guarantee is still king.
So, here’s your chance to weigh in:
Nothing, or should I how much can surprise me anymore. Guys who are making 5-7 million a year struggled for a roster spot 20 years ago. 100 bucks for a box seat? I’m financially glued to my tv.
What?
While I am not completely sure as to what you are saying, but TV deals are the main reason as to why some of these player/pitchers are getting outrageous contracts.
So by you sitting by your TV….
As for Cespedes he should get 5/100 or 5/110. However, I am sure some silly person will give him the 140 or 160 Cespedes thinks he deserves.
Which is why players are getting paid more. The teams are generating a ton of revenue through tv contracts. Though I’m not sure what that has to do with Cespedes, he’s not a borderline roster player.
Exactly, what?
He should go to the White Sox to team up with his good friend Jose Abreu. Give him a 4 year $82 million contract.
You’ll need a lot more than 4/82 to get him there…….at least 5/$115 to go to the White Sox.
He wants a ring…….so he will choose his best shot at getting one, along with the money. Pay him 6/$145-$155 and he’ll sign there.
bingo.
my thoughts exactly.
Bingo bingo
Mine too!!
6/122
I can see the Braves, Angels, White Sox, Diamond Backs, Phillies, or Tigers giving him a 5/120 deal.
As much as I want the white sox to get Cespedes, Theyre way too cheap to pay him 120 mil over 5 years. Im still holding out hope theyll do 5 year 100.
He’ll stay with the Mets for 3/60 before signing to a non-contender
Haha
5/110
6/142 with 22 mill deferred.
You have to look at what is the options and who is really left to get these players. First off the O’s were smart and went public about upping their interest in Davis. But I’m almost 100% sure not 100 % but close that the front office said let put a scare into SB and Davis, and went public about trying to sign Cespedes. To see if Davis and SB would bite. They did. Really I’m almost sure they had no real interest in signing Cespedes, unless Davis forced their hand and signed somewhere else first. I’m 100% positive they would have not signed Cespedes with Davis still unsigned. Their heart was with Davis the whole time. They were just running out of patience. Davis still could have made them wait. It was like a big poker game with the bluff. It worked. Enough said.
As far as the remaining FA outfield. Look at the remaining realistic teams out their first.
Tigers, W Nash, Whitesox, Mets, St.L – And a very very 100 to 1 long shot Cubs but not on these players.
Then the FA – Upton, Cespedes, Fowler, and the Rockies Outfield
——————————————————————————————-
So it is a simple puzzle to pretty much figure out, Unless something weird happens.
Someone not getting a player.also.
Really as far as Cespedes there is only two places he can really go that is realistic wo someone just doing an Arizonia thing. Those teams are Tigers and Nashionals.
To eliminate the other teams Mets, Whitesox and St.L is pretty simple. Mets want a short term deal something Cespedes is not willing to do at this point. The Whitesox pretty much want the same so you can pretty much blank those teams out.. If Cespedes was serious about getting signed he could have played an ACE to the O’s and used them to his advantage. While they used him to get to Davis, he could have said look I take 100 Million at 5 years and probably got the deal done. Maybe out in 3 or 4. Even 120 at 6 with an out at 4 or 3. Back loaded and he probably would have been an O. Esp if they were serious about being mad at Davis. He could have used that to his advantage. Pretty much sneak in there and under cut Davis. There was not a lot of place for Davis to go. The O’s knew that and really so did Davis and SB. So no one was fooling no one. I would have jumped on that when it went public id I was Cespedes.
St. L is NOT spending the money on him, at least not long term. They have a better idea which is a better idea. The Cubs are not in play for Cespedes plain and simple.
So If I was a betting man I say probably even odds 1-to 1 he goes to the Nationals.
Although you can flip flop also Tigers. But getting to Umpton his realistic choice are also Tigers and Nations. Both of these player will go to each of these teams. Pick one.
I see Umpton more going to Tigers than Wash. St.L again is NOT spending the money they said that like 400 times so forget St. L fans. Cubs are not in play for Umpton. So its pretty simple and just time for both of these players. One will be in Det, one in Washington. Odds are Cespedes is in Washinton and Umpton in Det. Sox can’t afford Umpton so stop dreaming.
Now were down to Whitesox and St.L and the Cubs on Flowler. The Cubs are a very very very long shot. But nothing impossible. Really he should taken that 15.8 QO.
The Sox could sign him, but it be only a 2 or 3 year deal maybe an Club or Mult out after 2. St. L could do the same but doubtful, one because they ahve better plan, and two giving up that pick to the Cubs. So Odds are slim. Going back to Cubs is slim also, but if he came back and said I go 16 Million at one year, I’m almost positive Theo figure out the funds and a way to make it woek, but short of 1 year 16 million the Cubs aren’t interested, and don’t need to be.
Flower will go to Sox its only place left or back to the Cubs on a one year deal. St. L possible but odds are very very slim. Best realistic choice is Whitesox.
St.L is not really interest in anyone left, they can offer alot to Colorado for a great Outfielder, a hitter which they need, a big hitter, and no draft choice attached, plus they have the trade material to get it done. Colorado will trade an outfielder to St. L before its all said and done. Bank it.
That finishes anyone who is really important on the FA list left over. DONE! Very simple. Not saying it is 100% but it probably the most realistic way it will go the rest of the off season into Spring T,
I think Justin Humpton with sign with the Nashionals.
I agree that the Nats would sign Upton rather than Cespedes, given Mike Rizzo’s connection with Upton from his Arizona days.
White Sox don’t need speed. They need power. And OBP.
Imo, Yoenis Cespedes will sign a 6 year deal between 100-120M with a player opt-out after two seasons, just in time for a likely weak 2017-2018 free agent market when he will still be just 32 years old. The following off-season class looks to be star-studded with potential FA’s, so an opt out after 3 seasons for him would be ill-advised as a 33 year old corner outfielder.
I’m still thinking the White Sox are the most likely landing spot for Cespedes if they are willing to be in the “ball park” financially. They possess the most favorable intangibles, including a “hitter-friendly” home park, a team built to contend for now and the future with so many key players under cheap long-term team control, a great history with Cuban players from Minnie Minoso through the present, along with a strong recruiting pitch from his friend Jose Abreu.
Unless some team comes along and blows away the competition with a Chris Davis like contract, the White Sox look to be as good a fit as any for his services. Adding Cespedes arguably makes the White Sox the team to beat in the A.L. Central. I also believe they are likely to add an upgrade at SS before spring training, possibly Ian Desmond or Jimmy Rollins, and perhaps a right-handed starting pitcher via a trade as well.
Cespedes isn’t going to get a giant contract like y’all think. We are talking about a hit or miss guy. And over the last two seasons he’s played for 4 teams. My thought is he either goes to the white sox, Baltimore( which with the signing of Davis it’s highly unlikely) or goes to the mets.
If he goes back to the mets it’s a 1 year deal.
If he goes to the white sox maybe a 5 year deal with a opt out after 3.
Its hard to imagine their are not several teams in on Cespedes and Upton. The agents you would expect would be planting information out there to create a sense of interest, even if they would have to manufacture it, yet we have almost no rumors of either outside of the Orioles which was probably coming from Baltimore to pressure Davis. Strange.
Tigers make sense. But only if the do not extend JD. They cannot afford both.
Ideal would be if they could trade JD for a young pitcher. A slight notch down (but not much) from Syndegaard would be a perfect trade. Reset the clock and give a power deprived team a monster bat.
You are right about the Tigers not being able to afford both, so why should they downgrade to YC.
JD is younger,cheaper and has more upside while being equal in production. He also is hungry to succeed. An article by David Waldstein in the New York Times had a telling statement regarding Cespedes. He wrote: “….The Mets have concerns about how the 30-year-old Cespedes would perform after securing a long-term deal. They would prefer to have him in a situation in which he was motivated to prove his worth, as he was last year….”
JD is the monster bat you are talking about and YC is more likely to put it in “coast” mode after a big contract signing.
None. No long term contract.
One year, 22-25m, max.
There’s just something about a dude who’s been on 4 teams in 2 years that screams problems ahead, when none of those 4 teams have put out any effort in re-signing him, keeping him around or anything of the sort. Are any of them even on the radar?
That’s a pretty bad sign to me. Probably an intangible one, but I sure wouldn’t want a long term deal for him with a no-trade if he were coming to my team, because there definitely seems to be some sort of “thing” with him.
Then again, baseball’s crazy. I’d like to see him as a Cardinal on a one-year thing, but definitely not a 5 year deal for over 100m.
Theres no red flags with him getting traded so much. The main reason he got traded was because his contract had a clause in it that said he had to be released 5 days after the end of the WS, preventing teams from slapping him with a QO and preventing the he was on from resigning him until Spring Training. The only reason that changed for the Mets was because he was trying to get another buyer into his market. When you look at it from a deeper perspective, each team had motives to trade him. Oakland needed pitching (got Lester), Red Sox needed pitching (got Porcello), the Tigers were waving the white flag and needed prospects.
6/132M with some money deferred…would guess Angels, White Sox, Tigers, Mets with the Phillies as a surprise long shot. And I wouldn’t count the Yankees out – they have some expiring contracts coming up.
1 year $18M
I see him getting at least 1 offer for 6/$120M, and at least 1 for 1-3 at $23-26M. At that point I think it’s up to him and his reps as to what works best for him. I see either Mets at 3 years $75M or Nationals at 6 years $126M with an opt out or 2. Not sure which I think is more likely
He’s going 4 years 95 million to a contender. Of the mets can stretch out to the 4th year I think that’s a fit. But I could also see the Tigers jumping in on him maybe willing to give a 5th year. The White Sox are also out unless they stretch to the 4th-5th year and are willing to spend which I see as highly unlikely. Phillies don’t make sense due to their current rebuilding. And all other teams with money don’t seem to interested.
Lot of long posts here. I’m going Haiku:
Music stops again.
Are there more chairs or players?
Yo Yo offseason.
Should get about 5/120. He’s a power hitter, but he is not a great fielder. Great arm, but his glove is at best average. He’s gonna hit 250-270 with 25-30 hr and 90rbs. Those are good stats, but nothing amazing. Will most likely get over paid.
gold glove means nothing? he got that despite playing 1/3 of the season in the NL. as a tigers fan that watched him everyday, he’s a great defender. He is fast *for a LF*, has good hands, and a rocket arm.
If the Yankees can find a home for Gardner in exchange for a #4-5 type starter , they could be considering Cespedes. The lineup will be lacking a power right- handed bat after A-Rod is gone. Don’t think they will be willing to negotiate a 5-6 year contract , but would definitely entertain a 3-5 year agreement with an option somewhere along the way.
That Yoenis doesn’t require a sandwich first round pick bears significant weight to his new contract, still, in case of those continuing to overlook. I’ll call 8/168 million with factoring in Davis’ complex deal. MLB could nullify and require that deal restructured for conflict of interest with the current CBA, BTW
$85 million-4 years