After a splashy — and ultimately unsuccessful — offseason in 2014-2015, A.J. Preller’s lack of big moves this offseason has been puzzling, FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron writes. The Padres did make what Cameron believes was an excellent trade to send Craig Kimbrel to the Red Sox, and they’ve also made a number of smaller moves to send Joaquin Benoit, Yonder Alonso, Marc Rzepczynski and Jedd Gyorko elsewhere while adding Drew Pomeranz, Jon Jay and Christian Bethancourt via trades and Alexei Ramirez, Fernando Rodney and Carlos Villanueva via the free agent market. They have, however, kept two of their most valuable trade assets in Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross, even though teams paid heavily for pitching in the free agent market this offseason and the Padres don’t project to contend in 2016. That they haven’t yet dealt Cashner is especially vexing, since he’s eligible for free agency next winter and since his new team won’t be able to extend him a qualifying offer if the Padres wait until after the start of the season to deal him. Here’s more from San Diego.
- Rymer Liriano was once a highly regarded prospect in the Padres’ system, but the team’s recent decision to designate him for assignment is, in some ways, unsurprising, Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes. Liriano is merely the latest in a long line of pre-Preller prospects to depart from the organization, a line that also includes Joe Ross, Trea Turner, Max Fried, Matt Wisler, and many others. Also, the Padres’ string of outfield acquisitions before the 2015 season buried Liriano on their depth chart, and Liriano, though he’s generally hit well in the minors, has had problems with strikeouts. Finally, the team has a number of young outfielders it seemingly likes better, including Hunter Renfroe, Alex Dickerson and Rule 5 newcomer Jabari Blash.
- The Padres are currently loaded with top 2016 draft picks, Dennis Lin of the Union-Tribune writes. They already had the eighth overall pick, and they’ll also get compensatory picks for the departures of Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy, giving them three of the first 27 selections. They also have a selection (No. 71 overall) in Comp Round B, which means they’ll have made six picks by the time they’ve named their third-rounder at No. 85 overall. All those picks should help them restock after the departures of a number of top prospects last winter.
So, why would you even trade Cashner now? His value is crap. And, there is no way anyone would extend him a qualifying offer next year, unless he totally makes a 180 this year. Cameron doesn’t know what he’s talking about.
More of a deadline or actually more of a waiver trade deadline move.
Cashner is widely viewed as a good #4… That’s not very intriguing, but useful.
Widely viewed by whom? He is a #3 on the Padres. His last 3 seasons he has a 3.43 ERA and a 3.48 FIP or a decent #2. His problems are not skill or stuff, they are health and Norris lack of game calling skills.
Ian Kennedy just got offered a QO (yeah.. Preller did, but you asked) and I’d take Cashner over Kennedy any day of the week.
Kennedy had a better year. Plus he’s good for 150-200 innings. Cashner gets hurt a lot.
Kennedy had a 4.28 ERA/4.51 FIP in 168 innings; Cashner had a 4.34 ERA/3.85 FIP in 184 innings. On those stats, I would gladly take Cashner, and I would extend him a QO before extending one to Kennedy.
That’s one year. Look at the history. Cashner has been hurt a lot more. Kennedy has a better history of health
Look at the last 3 years. Cashner has been better.
If Cashner is a starter for the 1st 3 starts of 2013 instead of a reliever and was not shut down at the end of the season because he has reached his innings limit, not because he was hurt, he has 6 more starts and 525 IP vs Kennedy’s 550 over the 3 years.
I would too
Ugh, the Kennedy QO situation. That was not safe of Preller. It did pay off in the end, but it wasn’t safe. I do not want to see it again with Cashner.
I find it unlikely that anyone is interested in Cashner after his 2015 season. The best thing to do at this point is keep him, hope he has a good first half and then trade him to the highest bidder at the deadline. And as for the QO thing, I doubt an acquiring team would want to extend him a QO in the first place.
Rymer Liriano is out of options so it’s not surprising to see him go but I feel like Preller should be able to get SOMETHING for him.
Liriano will have more of a market off the 40. Tough call for a team to give him a 25 man spot when SD is cutting him loose, especially with all their CF options
Preller has been egotistical IMHO. Eliminating Bud Black quickly, relieving Pat Murphy, and refusing to deal anyone @ last year’s trade deadline. Systematically purging the minors of Jed Hoyer’s prospects to collect his own. That would all be forgiven if it worked, but it mostly hasn’t.
Padres are just a couple injuries and bullpen question marks away from a really bad season.
Kid, it’s not gonna take injuries or bullpen question marks to make this a bad season.
Yeah unfortunately for the Padres, I just looked at their 40 man, and it is quite bad…Catcher spots and the OF has talent, but, especially in terms of infielders, they are lacking depth and starting caliber players….
I mean, is Brett Wallace really going to start at 1B? Pitching staff is what it is, but unless their defense improves, then they won’t likely have good seasons either.
I think Wil Myers is going to start at 1B, but still, their infield is bad.
Wil Myers is the starting 1B. Brett Wallace is the left-handed pinch-hitter.
For how long will the glass man be in the lineup? 80 games? How many runs will he give up compared to what Alonso would have? Alonso could pick it.
He’s supposed to be fully healthy for the first time in his career after he got that wrist issue fixed last year.
Saying that, it still remains to be seen how well he’ll hold up at 1B.
Myers didn’t seem to have any problem playing 1st base last year. As far as his health goes, I totally agree with you there.
+1
Agreed. I think everyone knows it’s not going to be a very good season for them. This year, it’s going to be a brawl between the Giants, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks. Right now the Padres are just trying to regroup and rebuild. Saying that, it’s nice to see they have so many good picks this year in the draft.
The narrative that Preller is egotistical/out of his depth is dramatically oversold by certain media (i.e. Olney/Cameron). In particular, Olney’s tweets are exceptionally harsh and exhibit, in my opinion, an unprofessional personal tone.
Moreover, the idea that that are only two ways to run a franchise, World Series or full rebuild, is a false choice. It is the sort of group-think that has resulted in half the National League attempting to tank this upcoming season. It’s bad for baseball, and as more teams go full rebuild, the results of the strategy are diminishing.
I believe Preller is on record that he has a 1 year, 3 year, and 5 year plan. The 1st year seemed to be to bring talent at the Major League level to bring back fans. As critical people are of the new ownership, the Moorad administration was awful and the way it ended was embarrassing.. It definitely hurt the fan base. As a result of Preller’s moves last year, the Padres averaged almost 3,000 more fans a home game. Year over year, that is a big jump.
The 3-5 year plan seems to be to move the legacy prospects, who Preller did not think were impact talents, and bring in talent that Preller deems impact. If you study who Preller has brought in, there are definite trends to what he likes. If he is not being offered what he wants in trades, why would he move Major League talent to obtain players he does not value.
I think if people give him a little longer leash, and stop obsessing about his personality, than in a couple years people may be singing a different tune.
It’s likely going to be a really bad season, regardless. I, for one, have been extremely underwhelmed with Preller. Hopefully he proves me wrong.
The devils advocate in me would say that almost all GMs unless they arrive in top 10 prospect range. The coaching staff is usually the same way. Although crazy the moves made last season at least he took a shot. Somone will overpay for Ross and Cashner at the trade deadline just like teams always do. Cashner is at lowest value point a bounce back first half changes things.
I like Cashner a lot, I love his fastball. However, he has not been that successful in the W/L department. Plus, the Padres have always wanted to keep him or that was the consensus everytime I brought up trading him. Plus, they have to compete and keep fans in the stands and I think to an extent Cashner does that, so. that is why the Padres keep him
That and if he turns it around to start next season he could actually have some good value to a contending team at the deadline.
Certainly more value than he has right now.
Wins and losses are not a good way to judge pitchers
I don’t see it that puzzling why they didn’t trade Cashner. His value is just not that high. Better off rolling the dice that he bounces back and they can either trade him to the highest bidder a couple months in ( I think if he starts hot than u trade him early when a team knows they will get more than two months). If they are in contention and he’s doing well then they could extend him the QO. Really think the Padres best move was not trading him yet.
Padres have been a joke since 2006, and would have been in a wild card in 2010 if it existed then.. Still even last off season it was obvious to me, and im sure many others that their group of players wouldnt work out..
They need a change of management and to rebuild their farm system. Just go into a full rebuild already.
I’m confused by the wording in the last paragraph. Do you mean the Padres will have six picks before pick #85 or six including #85? By my count it is the latter, but it is stated as if the former were true. Of course having that many means nothing if you don’t get lucky. Remember in 2011 when the Rays had 10 picks in the first 60. Everyone of them except for Blake Snell has pretty much busted, and Snell is far from a guarantee,
Never mind I just reread the sentence. My bad.
Just having picks doesn’t matter. It’s proven that small market clubs select players higher than their true value and pay them lower than their pick. Some have been successful stretching the cost to value for these picks, most notably the Astros and Royals. High draft picks don’t always mean high value.
I wouldn’t necessarily say busted Guerriri is #6 prospects had injuries. Marhook made his debut last year and Goedell was a rule 5 guy. That old cliche for baseball drafts: each draft you try to find that impact guy, that guy that can be a solid starter, complimentary piece, and a couple guys to trade. To me a bust is a guy like brazelton.
Personally, as a padre fan I just wish they would come out and say hey look guys we are rebuilding. Just say what it is. I can see why they aren’t for obvious reasons #1. The all-star game this year and not wanting to kill the buzz before that happens and #2. Because of last years spending frenzy and trying to win overnight, the organization knew there is a better way to go about this and are now putting that plan I to place.
As for Liriano, I think he plenty of intrigue around the league with teams that would take a flier on him. I think Preller is on the phone as we speak seeing what deal he can get. A guy who batted .280 with 16 and 64 in AAA isn’t a waiver claim slouch, not to mention he is still #13 in our top prospects list. Cmon AJ get some nice pieces for him.
What do you think you could get out of trading him? Typically people who are designated for assignment aren’t going to be the kind of players teams are going to give up nice pieces for
I think we could get a top 20 pitching prospect for him, something like a Corey Black from the Cubs. He is their #19 top prospect, RHP who just got unclaimed in the Rule 5 draft. Jed Hoyer drafted Liriano so maybe he gets him back and puts him in AAA. I can see a deal where Liriano gets traded to a team that has a prospect that is in limbo like he is but with their team. Change of scenery type situation. Guess we will find out in the next couple of days.
Hoyer wouldn’t be able to get Liriano back and then put him in AAA. He is out of options. An acquiring team would have to either carry him on their Major League roster or DFA him again.
They won’t say it because they aren’t.
Maybe they should but a rebuilding team doesn’t sign veterans to one year contracts.
Considering they just traded almost their entire top 20 prospect list for ML starters it’s probably not a good idea to completely start over the very next year.
That’s exactly what a rebuilding team does, bridge the gap for top prospects and hope for bounce back years from cheap veterans to sell off at the deadline
No… They let the kids play.
Any kid.
No reason to sign Ramirez to a one year deal at all unless you’re trying to win in 16′.
You don’t trade for Jay….. You take an A-AA ball player instead if you have too.
And you “certainly” don’t monitor the Cespedes market in the least.
You don’t even make a phone call or even care what he signs for elsewhere.
Couldn’t have said that better.
I think the problem is that they are trying to keep a good product on the field while trying to rebuild at the same time. Which doesn’t always necessarily work. They are trying to straddle both sides of the spectrum, and eventually, something’s going to give.
Which they’ve been doing for the past 15 years and hasn’t worked at all.
Precisely, which is why Preller’s moves have been so puzzling. If he wants to rebuild the team, then just rebuild, don’t beat around the bush.
Not trading Upton last year was inexcusable. Aside from that, I have been saying all offseason that the Padres should trade Ross. His value will never be higher (a very good 2015 and 2 full years of control). Maybe they will be able to get more for him at the deadline but there is risk in waiting – injuries always are a possibility or he could have a subpar first half.
It isn’t inexcusable if they weren’t offered more than what they can get in the draft.
Also combining that with the “slim” chance they had to at least make it interesting last summer….which of course didn’t happen but that is in hindsight,which GM’s don’t have the luxury of.
Remember they had a very easy schedule right after the trade deadline so there at least was a chance they could go on a good run.
Which would have sold tickets.
Agreed. It all depends what they could have got for Upton, and who knows what has been offered for Ross (if anything). But if they can get good value for Ross, now is the time.
They had no chance to make it interesting. They were clearly sellers at the deadline. If Preller got an offer for Upton or Kennedy that was better than an extra draft pick then he absolutely should have taken that offer. That being said I am content with having the extra draft picks. Here’s hoping Preller uses them well.
Rumor has it that the White Sox offered Fullmer and another prospect for Upton at the deadline and Preller said no. So they better hit on that comp. pick they got from Detroit for him or else it will indeed look like he made the wrong choice, Fullmer is going to be a stud from the looks of it.
You are an idiot you said that Hoyer should trade for Liriano and put him in AAA. Liriano is out of options. If Hoyer trades for Liriano he wouldn’t be allowed to put him in AAA.
Oh is that right idiot? He is out of options with the Padres bro. If he gets traded to any other team including the Cubs for example he can put on their 40 man roster and be their starting LF in AAA because they didn’t use an option they just acquired him and assigned him to an affiliate. Check your facts you idiot.
Doesn’t work that way kid. Once a player is out of options they are out of options no matter who they play for. If Liriano gets traded to someone else he does not regain options. Hoyer would still have to carry him on the Major League roster or put him back on waivers. So why don’t YOU check YOUR facts!
Cashner won’t get much now, but if he returns to his 2013/2014 form, he could fetch a lot close to the deadline. Doubtful a team will gamble much on that though.
Thanks for Anthony Rizzo.
Yeah as a cub fan I was wrong on that trade . I loved cashner and thought Rizzo would be a bust. Glad I’m not a gm:-)
Just like how the Indians tell them thanks for Corey Kluber.
You kinda could see Rizzo being the Rizzo now but Kluber was a 4 era guy down in the minors before he broke out. Couldn’t blame the front office for trading a mediocre guy like him.
True, I guess there wasn’t really an idea he would become what he is now. It’s just too bad things don’t swing that way more often for the Padres, hah.
Thanks for choking in 1984.
Anthony Rizzo for Andrew Cashner. Anyone who saw Rizzo play first with their own eyes, then trade him for a pitcher, any pitcher, should roast in heck for eons.
Rizzo would have sold season tickets and his at-bats would have given Pad patron fans a reason to delay getting Oggi’s or a tofu whatever.
Forever morons. Like trading Comic Con for an Andy Dick Festival.
So Preller is getting rid of prospects like Turner who is in top 10 in baseball, Ross and Wisler who are already major league starters, and Fried just because they are not HIS draft picks or trade targets?
It’s not like he has gotten a good return for trading them away.
Now he does have some draft picks and if he is extremely lucky one of his top four picks he has next year will be ready to contribute in 2020.
Yep. That’s what happened XD
On paper they definitly don’t look that great but their lineup should be more balanced than last year. Jay, spangenberg, and jankowski all should be able to get base and myers will have a chance to hit in the middle of the lineup. Basically their going for an approach similar to that of the giants lefthanded hitters who can get on base and a few power right handed guys in the middle. Also having more hitters who can put the ball in play should work well in the nl west which dominated by right handed pitching (except the dodgers of course).
I think Cashner has some upside. They won’t get a huge haul but I could see some interest in him now but less at the deadline. He’s not the type of guy who’s going to entice a contender to go after near the deadline. He’s a guy someone might take as a back end of rotation guy hoping for health and if healthy he could fill that spot without spending a ton. But let’s say Cashner has a good first half anyone think he’s a 1-3 guy on a contender? Why deal for a guy at the deadline knowing he isn’t in your playoff rotation?
I can’t see there being any interest in Cashner right now. If he can return to 2014 form (the part he didn’t spend on the DL) for the first half of 2016 then there will be way more interest in him at the deadline.
I’d have to assume nobody who commented sees Cashner showing a top end of the rotation guy this season. Hopefully a mid rotation or very good back end of the rotation kind of guy. Who’s looking for that at the deadline? Why give much of anything for a free agent to be who probably won’t pick up a baseball in the playoffs
There is ALWAYS demand for guys like that at the deadline