While several major free agents have already been signed this offseason, there has been relatively little change to the 2016 amateur draft order. It’s a little surprising given that, with a record 20 free agents receiving qualifying offers, the stage was set for a massive reshuffle for next year’s first round.
Or maybe, in hindsight, it’s not that surprising that the list of QO free agents is still pretty robust as we hit Christmas. As ESPN’s Buster Olney wrote in his most recent subscription-only column, some agents and executives think that with an increasing number of teams preparing to “tank” the 2016 season, this has thinned the market for suitors for these established veterans. There has also been a lot of attention paid to the free agents who didn’t have draft pick compensation attached to their services, as David Price, Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake and Ben Zobrist have all been signed.
Assuming Daniel Murphy‘s agreement with the Nationals is finalized, that will account for 11 of the 20 qualifying offer free agents off the board. Of that 11-man group, Hisashi Iwakuma and Marco Estrada signed new contracts with their former teams and while three players (Colby Rasmus, Matt Wieters, Brett Anderson) also stayed put and set a precedent by accepting the QO. That accounts for six free agent signings that impacted the updated draft order…
FIRST ROUND
1. Phillies
2. Reds
3. Braves
4. Rockies
5. Brewers
6. Athletics
7. Marlins
8. Padres
9. Tigers
10. White Sox
11. Mariners
12. Red Sox
13. Rays
14. Orioles
15. Indians
16. Twins
17. Angels
18. Astros
19. Yankees
20. Rangers
21. Mets
22. Dodgers
23. Blue Jays
24. Royals
25. Pirates
26. Cardinals
COMPENSATION ROUND (bonus picks given to teams who issued qualifying offers to players who signed elsewhere; picks are allotted in inverse order of 2015 record)
27. White Sox (for Jeff Samardzija signing with the Giants)
28. Nationals (for Jordan Zimmermann signing with the Tigers)
29. Mets (for Daniel Murphy signing with the Nationals)
30. Dodgers (for Zack Greinke signing with the Diamondbacks)
31. Cardinals (for John Lackey signing with the Cubs)
32. Cardinals (for Jason Heyward signing with the Cubs)
Thus far four teams (San Francisco, Arizona, Chicago and Washington) have given up their first-rounder to sign a qualifying offer free agent. The D’Backs were originally slated for the 13th overall pick of the first round, the Nationals 18th, the Giants 19th and the Cubs 28th.
Since the Cubs signed two QO free agents, they’ve also given up their first pick of the second round. It’s possible Chicago could recoup a pick in the compensation round, however, if the qualifying-offered Dexter Fowler signs with a new team. Along those same lines, Washington gained a compensatory pick for Zimmermann and will get another when Ian Desmond signs elsewhere, which undoubtedly factored into the Nats being comfortable enough to give up their first-rounder for Murphy.
The top 10 slots in the draft are protected, so Detroit kept its first-rounder (ninth overall) and only has to surrender its top second-round pick in order to sign Zimmermann.
Beyond the compensation round are the Competitive Balance Selections (which were determined by a lottery in July and can be traded) and various other extra picks given to teams who failed to sign players in those corresponding spots in last year’s draft. MLB.com’s amateur draft site has a full listing of every pick within the first three rounds, minus the changes in the wake of the Murphy agreement.
So assuming someone signs upton before draft (extremely safe assumption). Padres would then have 27th pick and could move up if any team with the 11th to 26th pick signs a QO FA?
Correct. Don’t forget that Ian Kennedy is also a qualifying offer free agent, so if he and Upton both sign elsewhere, San Diego will have the top two picks of the compensation round.
It’s still unbelievable they chose not to trade Upton or Kennedy. There’s no question they would have been able to acquire better talent in a trade than the draft.
To clarify, when Fowler signs somewhere, the Cubs will surrender the comp pick they would have gotten for him and instead have a pick in the second round.
I thought they’d lose the 2nd rounder too, but keep the comp pick?
Sox can’t screw this pick up can they? Oh yes they can , Williams is still in the front office
Picking tenth is one of the hardest spots IMO as all the obvious choices are gone and the team has to rely on scouting reports much more. It should be a good pick though and it’s nice it’s protected should they decide to pursue Gordon or Gallardo
Williams is fine LaRoach will have a Dunn type 2nd year remember that nightmare 1st year. And I’m sure Frazier will work . Thanks Williams
So do the Giants get their first pick in the 2nd round?
Didn’t Zimmerman sign before the Shark? Why aren’t the Nationals the first compensation pick?
That isn’t how it works. That would be a terrible way to do it. I believe it is in reverse standings order.
You are correct. Strangely though, instead of going through the order for all teams with one comp pick, then going through clubs with two, all of a team’s compensation picks are clumped together. This the Padres will wind up with the first two comp picks if they don’t wind up losing one by signing a player with a QO attached, while the Cardinals have back-to-back picks at the end of the comp selections.
I guess it kinda makes sense, right? The Padres need the help more than the Cards do, clearly.
White Sox had a worse record than the Nats so they’re first. Has nothing to do with when the FA player signed.
Correct
Cards need to hit on all 3 of those picks. More so than any other year. Team is getting old, And Cubs are on the rise. Need to get an impact infielder and a couple pitchers.
On the bright side, the Cards have the highest “hit” rate on early round talent of any team in baseball, so there’s that. Their scouting and player development is right there at or near the top.
It goes by record for the comp picks. St. L is now out of FA w a QO. Since the cards had the best record 100 wins any signings w their FA they draft last in comp round as you see now. 31 n 32. Not taking about round 1 only comp round. As you see the teams lined up by record worst to best. The cards FA are gone now. They can move down the ladder n will. Doesn’t matter who signs the FA. When Flowler does sign the Cubs will get 31 the Cards drop to 32 n 33. W SD since their record sucks lol they go ahead twice for Upton n Kennedy in front of the Whitesox. Sum it up the worst team who still has a FA w QO out their will draft first in the comp round if their signed before draft day. Then it goes in order of worst to best record. That’s why best record wo winning a WS is not always good. SD looking good w comp draft picks. Not sure who all sux w FA out their.
They way it works with pick compensation is that you get a teams highest pick as compensation in between rounds 1 and 2. So if Fowler signs then the cardinals would still pick 31 and 32 as he Cubs would surrender their first round pick and their comp pick as their 2 highest picks. The Cubs first pick would be their regular second round pick.