6:56pm: The Braves continue to ask the Diamondbacks for A.J. Pollock, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (links to Twitter). After the D-backs initially rejected Atlanta’s proposal of Miller for Pollock, the Braves came back with an offer of Miller and right-hander Arodys Vizcaino for Pollock and minor league right-hander Aaron Blair, which Arizona also rejected.
Clearly, while the Braves are in a state of rebuilding, there’s interest on their behalf in adding a piece that can help them in 2017, when much of the team’s young stable of pitching prospects will be emerging onto the Major League scene. Both Pollock and Soler (mentioned in the previous update) fit that bill, with Soler possessing even more club control than Pollock, who is a free agent after three seasons (the same as Miller).
6:40pm: Shelby Miller’s name is one of the most popular on the rumor circuit at present, with recent reports indicating that as many as 20 teams have checked in on the Atlanta right-hander. Jon Heyman reported yesterday that the Yankees, Marlins, Giants, Dodgers and Diamondbacks are all among the teams to have expressed interest, and further details on the Miller market are beginning to emerge.
Today, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports that the Braves are highly interested in Cubs right fielder Jorge Soler, but right-hander Julio Teheran probably isn’t enough to pry Soler away from Chicago (links to Twitter). One person familiar with Atlanta’s thinking also told Crasnick that the Red Sox could be a match, though that tweet preceded tonight’s record-setting agreement with David Price.
Meanwhile, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Dodgers and Giants are the teams that appear to be the most interested in Miller, but the Braves might be waiting until Price’s deal becomes official and Zack Greinke makes a decision before ultimately determining whether or not they should move Miller. Greinke is said to be choosing between San Francisco and L.A., so it stands to reason that whichever club loses out on Greinke could show an increased willingness to part with talent to land Miller.
Heyman hears that one name that’s unlikely to be included in a Miller deal is Joc Pederson (Twitter link), The Dodgers have “made clear” that they’d prefer to deal from their deep well of prospects as opposed to part with Major League ready talent such as Pederson, whose name isn’t involved in trade discussions between the two sides at this time.
The 25-year-old Miller is set to hit arbitration for the first time this winter and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.9MM next season. He’s controllable for three more years and is coming off a fine 2015 campaign in which he recorded a 3.02 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 47.7 ground-ball rate in 205 2/3 innings. The ERA, ground-ball rate and innings total each ranked as a career-high for the former first-round pick.
would they trade urias?
Zero Chance. He is a top 5 prospect with limitless potential and only 18
So they won’t trade Pederson, Urias, Seager — okay. They don’t want to deal. Go pay Greinke. Case closed.
I agree the trade would probably never happen. But they also have De Leon who is a top 25 prospect and others. The could probably find a way to do the deal without them if the really wanted him.
But when they’re dealing with 19 other teams, many of which don’t have the farm depth that LAD does, but don’t also have the money and possibly a protected pick that won’t prevent them from dealing a top prospect for. Seriously though, we don’t need another pitcher, especially one that cannot make an immediate impact. Pollock/Soler could have an instant impact.
Do the braves want puig
Even with Greinke, they would still probably need a third, solid piece.
Grienke?
Exactly! We’re giving away a guy that is easily a 2 spot pitcher right now… Don’t care how much “potential” a PROSPECT has… We’ll find someone else willing to trade…
Dodgers can keep Pederson, Braves can do better than Adam Dunn 2.0
I personally think they would take that in a heartbeat. Even if Pederson’s bat ends up playing similarly to Adam Dunn’s. He projects as an above average defense player. Miller is controlled for only 3 while Pederson is for 5. Miller is a good pitcher but not a 1 starter.
Adam Dunn was a monster with the Reds. Huge power and OBP.
So if the Cards went hard after Price and foul tipped it into the catchers glove, wonder what pitcher they will get with Price, Zimermann, and Greinke (going back to LAD or to SFG). I’m thinking they’ll either go after Cueto, or a combo like Lackey and Chen, or maybe they will pull off a deal for Sonny Gray. It would probably take Alex Reyes, one out of Stephen Piscotty, Randall Grichuk, and Tommy Pham, and Cooney/Gonzalez. It seems as though their farm system is lacking it’s normal depth this at this time.
I would absolutely love to see Cards fans reaction if they signed Cueto to a big deal. BFIB HATE Cueto
If Atlanta is asking for guys like Pollock, I’m guessing they’ll likely be keeping Miller.
yeahhh…. read that wrong .. apologies
I think the OP realizes how good Pollock is – which is why he thinks there’s no chance Arizona deals him for Miller.
Agreed. Pollack broke out last year and looked like a super star player. Solar still has an awful lot to prove and is living on Hype. Maybe him, but not Pollack.
I could see the Cubs moving Soler.
But when they start asking for A.J. Pollock, Joe Panik (supposedly), and other teams’ core guys, they’ll likely have a hard time finding legitimate trade pieces for Miller.
Did Miller not break out last year? Last I seen the MLB has put a premium on good young starting pitching. I would love to see my braves keep Miller and think he becomes an ace. To sale for any less then a pederson/pollock or another proven bat would be silly..
Approaching Def Con stage three for Cubs fans on this one.
Not really… I never believed Price was the plan for the Cubs, and the fact that he signed this early in the FA period for almost exactly what everyone assumed he’d get, suggests that the Cubs were never really in on him.
The logic to that statement – which goes against everything that the media has been saying for years now – is that we knew Scherzer’s deal was the starting point for Price. The Red Sox basically got him at market value. If any other team even approached that number, or gave Price the indication that they might approach that number, then it’s unlikely he’d have signed on December 1st. But knowing that Price went for the apparent market value this early into FA just says that the Cubs weren’t even willing to go near the assumed asking price.
why, because now they know they’re not the only ones who believes the Braves are way over-valuing a no. 3 starter with a history of second half fades throughout his career?
Are you talking about a 25 year old who had a great first year in which his 1st/2nd half splits were about even? In his 2nd year his 2nd half stats were better. And in his 3rd year his 2nd half was worse, but still good. That’s not much of a history. Young guys get shut down/fatigued late in the season all the time.
He’s better than a no 3. There are 30 teams in baseball. 30×2=60. He’s definitely in the top 60 and probably in the top 35. I’m not hot on him either but let’s pump the breaks on the exaggerations.
I understand from the Dbacks perspective, but not the Dodgers. Pollick(spl?) is proven, while Peterson isn’t.
Pollock, Pederson, its literally a small scroll up.
Would the Braves not be interested in trading Miller for Soler? I really love Soler and Atlanta would be receiving a very talented and powerful player in Soler
It will likely come to that. I’m trying to figure if there will be other parts if Soler is involved.
Being a delusional Cubs fan I’ve been thinking of so many scenarios to make the trade without losing Soler but i just cant think of a good one that wouldn’t deplete the system. Cubs should pass on tier 1 pitchers this post season completely and sign Heyward which would definitely allow for moving Soler.
If Schwarber’s in LF, and Soler’s defense is what it is…..
I’ll leave the thought uncompleted.
Yeah, because Schwarber’s defense is never going to improve. I mean, when you throw a catcher out to LF, you have to expect that his defensive ceiling will be immediate.
Unless, of course, his name is Bryce Harper (played catcher in high school).
Since the end of the season, I’ve held fast with my belief that Heyward is the Cubs top target. The Cubs have four needs heading into next year… Heyward legitimately fills three of them while simultaneously weakening their biggest rival.
1) Pitching… Signing Heyward allows you to trade Soler for a cost-controlled young pitcher. Whether it be Miller (not my first choice), one of Salazar or Carassco in Cleveland, Quintana or they package Soler with Baez and some others to make a run at either Fernandez or Grey – the fact is that signing Heyward allows them to get pitching.
2) A leadoff hitter…. The guy had a .360 OBP with a K% under 15% last year. Forget what power we thought he’d have earlier in his career; this guy is a prototypical leadoff guy.
3) Outfield defense…. Soler, Fowler and Schwarber all rated as below-average outfielders a year ago – with Soler and Schwarber being absolutely abysmal in the field. Heyward is a GG quality RF.
4) CF… This is the only one Heyward doesn’t fit… though he could if they needed him to.
Not that Heyward isn’t a pretty good fit, but I really believe that Cubs fans are being kind of delusional about being players for people on that tier of free agency. Ownership and Theo have been pretty consistent that they don’t have a lot of money to spend and that any deal would force them to be be creative.
The Cubs’ TV deal isn’t going to be very good for the next couple of years, they’re financing a $500MM stadium and neighborhood renovation out of pocket (getting 0 tax dollars), Cook County taxes among if not the highest in the country, the team was purchased with huge piles of debt, etc. I don’t doubt that there will be a time where the Cubs are the financial behemoths their market would suggest, but it doesn’t seem to be now.
Might they still surprise me and go sign a Heyward? Could be. I also expect that $20MM/yr extra is about all they have to spend for the next 2-3 years, so it would be the proverbial “all your eggs in one basket.”
It might be fair, but with all the competition the Braves can probably get more.
There’s nowhere near the competition for Miller that Braves fan think. His peripherals suggest a big regression next year, and there are a ton of other options on the trade market right now. Teams are checking in because that’s what teams do – they check in on available players. It’s called due diligence. But trading a guy like Soler or Pollock for a league-average pitcher like Miller is called gross negligence.
this guy is silly…
Dude, you really called it on your ‘nowhere near the competition for Miller that Braves fan think’ comment, lol.
Who did we end up getting for Miller? That’s right Ender Inciarte, Dansby Swanson and Aaron Blair (2 out of 3 aint bad). While the verdict is still out of Swanson….Inciarte has proven to be a STEAL OF A DEAL!
“After the D-backs initially rejected Atlanta’s proposal of Miller for Pollock, the Braves came back with an offer of [Miller] and right-hander Arodys Vizcaino for Pollock and minor league right-hander Aaron Blair, which Arizona also rejected.”
“can i borrow $100?” no “ok how about $200?”
I know, right?
-Hey.. we have a decent #3 starter, how about you give us your star CF for him?
-No
-Okay, we’ll throw in a decent reliever, you throw in a top pitching prospect too
I think they should have tried to send Miller and Vizcaino for Pollock straight up. (Which would have also been rejected)
I like inciarte and Blair for Miller
Inciarte > Miller, in my opinion.
Because of combinations of talent questions and salary issues, there are no =four= players in the Braves’ organization for whom I’d surrender Pollock. With just a slight uptick in his power development, he could literally be the most productive OF in the National League, and at a very reasonable price with lots of controllable years. You don’t give that up unless absolutely overwhelmed. Shelby Miller is a nice piece. He ain’t overwhelming.
Wouldn’t Miller ultimately just headline a package of some players to get exactly who they want, rather than settle on what the market says his exact worth is?
Atlanta should really wait until next offseason to trade Miller, when the only legitimate free agent starter is Strasburg. Or at least after Cueto and Grienke have signed.
Miller,Swisher to Blue Jays for Pillar,Pentacost and so on?
I don’t see Toronto taking that even if it was Miller for Pillar straight, let alone having to take Swisher on. You may be able to get Miller for Pentecost, Goins, and Vlad Guererro.
“You want a solid number three starter? Ok, how about a franchise superstar that’s also young and under team control for a while? No? That’s so unreasonable.”
Welcome to negotiating 101, where you start high and work your way back. Did you want them to just ask for Aaron Hill so youd agree?
@Joe Shelby Miller is not a number 3..
Also since when is Aj pollock a “Franchise Superstar”? He’s had one solid year. btw Miller would probably be Arizonas #1..
Let’s also not forget Miller is only one season removed from being barely replacement level. It’s not like he’s a sure thing. Not to mention his peripherals indicate a regression in ERA.
half the players in the big leagues are barely replacement level
Which is why asking for Pollock in exchange is ridiculous.
If Miller ends up on the Diamondbacks I can say that they are in the post season. But if they trade Pollock then never mind about that.
The still have to pass the Dodgers and Giants in their own division. Not to mention the three headed monster in the NL Central with the Cardinals, Pirates, and Cubs and looking to improve on impressive seasons. Also lets not leave out the Mets and Nationals. Its a crowded field at the top of the NL.
If Greinke chooses SF Pederson could be made available, IMO. If Greinke chooses LA the Giants may over pay for Miller.
This is a ridiculous asking price for a pitcher whose one-year pitching above replacement level came with peripherals that suggest a ton of regression.
If I’m the Cubs, I’d rather see if I couldn’t get the Marlins to bite on Soler, Baez, Edwards, and McKinney for Jose Fernandez.
I don’t think the Cubs, or any team for that matter, will like the names that are brought up when they ask about Fernandez.
Fernandez is a stud and should demand a huge haul if the Marlins ever part ways with him. But the package I just mnetioned is a strong one, especially for those in the camp that believe Baez will be a 30+ home run hitter at SS (and who believe that his considerably lower K-rate in his second big league stint is for real.) Additionally, one of the hardest things for the Marlins when it comes to Fernandez is that he’s a Cuban player playing in Little Havana — trading him could be a PR nightmare. Getting a potential monster like Soler would certainly help alleviate that.
If the Braves are asking for guys like Pollock or Pederson, even guys like Joe Panik have been reported asking prices… for the Marlins to send Fernandez to Chicago, they’ll say names that sound like Raddison Hustle and Miss Cry-Ant
I’m not sure I’m ready to use the Braves front office as a gauge for the rest of the league. I can’t think of a move they’ve made in the past year where I’ve said – “Yep. That makes sense.” Or even one time where I’ve thought “Oh, I get what the Braves are doing…” They appear to be operating in their alternative universe where the reality the rest of us live in is meaningless.
If it means anything, I really liked the Evan Gattis and Kimbrel trades.
They dump salary with Kimbrel by throwing in Upton… They deal the other Upton and Heyward to get something for them prior to their hitting FA. It looks like they’re rebuilding, right? Wrong. They trade their young SS to Anaheim. They deal their future 2B to LA. They acquire a 30-year old prospect. They deal a quality young arm in Wood. They sign a 30-year old RF to a 4-year deal. Seriously – theyr’re bipolar in their approach.
You can isolate the Braves’ asking price for Shelby Miller and it’s still going to require something along the lines of Russell or (gasp) Bryant to acquire Fernandez.
Because Fernandez is about 362 times better than Shelby Miller.
There does exist a group of people who believe that Soler + Baez + Edwards + McKinney would be on par with a haul that brought back just Bryant. But we’ll have to agree to disagree on that one.
I’ve met that group. They were hanging out at Wrigley Field last summer.
I’ve met that group, too – they’re called scouts. It comes down to a few factors:
1) Do you believe in Soler’s potential. Most everyone belives in the guy’s bat.
2) Do you believe that Baez can maintain a 30% k-rate while putting up 30 home runs at SS. This is the real kicker because while Baez did manage to show he could last year, it was kind of a weird season for the guy as he missed the first month due to his sister’s death and then missed another month with a broken finger. So the sample size is small, but Baez’s power potential is still other-worldly.
No need to argue with these guys. What you’re saying makes perfect sense. It probably wouldn’t happen but it is plausible
I know. I’ve learned to live with it the past few years. Every time a Cubs trade rumor is brought to these boards, everyone says Bryant or Schwarber has to be included… People think that every major trade has to include a team’s best or second-best young player, but they fail to realize that the Cubs 5th best young player would be the top young player on 90% of Major League teams.
We are talking about what it would cost to acquire one of the best young arms in the game of baseball: Fernandez.
The Marlins would be silly to ask for anything less than premium MLB talent in return for a premium arm.
No one is denying the Cubs’ farm system. They’ve proven it’s good. But to get Fernandez, I’d imagine they’ll have to give up the best of their best (Bryant or Russell).
You’re glossing over the fact that Soler and Baez ARE two of their best! Soler was a top-10 prospect a year ago… Baez was a top-3 prospect before his eligibility ran out in 2014. These guys have legit potential
Soler and Baez would not bring in Fernandez, at least not this winter. I’m not sure how else I can say it.
Baez needs to start on a regular basis and proved himself, while Soler needs to put up a better season (-0.1 bWAR last year) before they’d even be considered in a deal for Jose.
Again – it’s one person’s opinion.
I didnt say my package was any better than yours. Both trades are unlikely. But Soler and Baez’s value are at a low point at the moment. As is Puig’s
I don’t think Soler’s is at a low point by any stretch – his playoff run was pretty epic. Granted, it was a small sample size… As for Baez, he showed he could get his K% down to a manageable level. His low point was following the 2014 season when he was striking out at an historic rate.
Solar was very mediocre during the regular season. He did not show any of the power that we know he is capable of. At least in 2014 he was mashing the ball. I think Baez needs to prove himself a little more in the majors before teams view him as that top 5 prospect agin.
I’ve watched close to every Cubs game this year and he was not mediocre during the season by any means… Before his injury, he actually lacked plate discipline, but his swing is very level and he produces tons of hard line drive contact. The reason it didn’t translate into homeruns is because he didn’t have much elevation to his swing. Seeing his approach and swings in the playoffs where he was able to stay disciplined and put elevation to his swing shows how much potential he has. If he can stay healthy, he can easily be a 25-30 hr guy
Soler was a replacement level player with over 400 PAs in 2015.
His couldn’t be much lower than that.
Not saying either would ever happen, but which of the proposed deals do you find more realistic? You seem fairly unbaised unless you are a Marlins fan.
I am actually a Giants fan.
I would think a deal around Puig would be taken WAY faster than anything around Soler.
Puig’s issues seem to be more about his attitude than anything. I’d be interested to see if he can return to form and stay healthy in ’16.
If he does, then I might actually contend that a deal involving Puig could be close to enough for Fernandez.
Freaking Puig. I want them to find a way to trade him now to help with chemistry and improve the roster. But at the same time his value is so low right now that it is almost seems dumb to move him.
Honestly, I’d hold on to him.
It would be better to see if Dave Roberts can help him out and if that fails, move him for whatever you can get.
That is, unless the Dodgers are blown away by a deal for him.
Ya thats my position as well. I just hope he doesn’t stand in the way of Grienke re-signing
Personally, I hope he does. But that’s because I’m a Giants fan 🙂
Haha. Even though I sort of think AT&T lessons the value of elite pitchers. It might be in their best interest to go after the Leaks and Lackeys. But Grienke is a boss and losing him would clearly improve the giants and weaken the dodgers.
I would LOVE to have them sign Greinke and maybe even Leake (the Giants would officially have a DH for 3 straight games lol).
I’d also be okay with them going after “lesser” pieces like Chen, Samardzija, Lackey, etc. and getting some OF help.
As long as they make upgrades in the rotation, I’ll be happy.
I wonder if they would consider signing and playing Heyward in center if they miss out on Grienke. Pence plays that wall so well. Then a couple of those other pitchers. That would be pretty interesting. Lolz the DH pitcher strategy. I like it
They could. I wonder if they’d prefer Cespedes, who can play in left in 2016, then transition over to CF when Pagan becomes a free agent.
I really want the Dodgers to snag Hernandez without giving up Urias or Seager. If only Puig’s value wasnt so depressed. A package around him, De Leon, multiple other high level prospects, and LOTS of money. Then they go out and sign Heyward. One can dream. Imagine that rotation once the Dodgers most likely resign Greinke. Kersh, Grienke, Fernandez, and Urias. Would not be fair.
People have to realize that whatever prized, young players they hold so dear will likely have to be moved in a deal for Fernandez.
It’s difficult to fathom, but I’d imagine it’s equally difficult for Miami to fathom being without Fernandez.
LA would have to give up one of Urias and Seager, if not both.
Just a what if scenario. If Puig killed it last year that would not be so unreasonable. They will almost certainly not give up Seager or Urias, so a trade would probably not happen between the two teams. We’re also talking about 2 of the top 5 prospects in baseball
Puig having the down-season, coupled with the reputation that has followed him ever since he put on a uniform in this country, certainly makes it tough. Additionally, Greinke is going to cost $32 mil next year, Heyward will cost $20 mil. Given the Dodgers lux tax situation – they’re paying 50 cents for every dollar over – signing those players would represent an additional $78 million in salary for next year. That’s insane even for the Dodgers.
“The Braves came back with an offer of Pollock and right-hander Arodys Vizcaino for Pollock and minor league right-hander Aaron Blair, which Arizona also rejected.”
It’d be tough to give up a player like Pollock but the D’Backs would be crazy not to trade him for a player of Pollocks caliber.
“the Braves came back with an offer of Pollock and right-hander Arodys Vizcaino for Pollock and minor league right-hander Aaron Blair, which Arizona also rejected.”
Think you meant Miller and Vizcaino
The braves trade vizcaino and “some polish guy” for A.j. Pollock
Will say, if olivera actually lives up to hype, Markakis/Pollock/Freeman/olivera may actually score runs or something!
Miller + Vizcaino for Swanson + Blair
we can give the DBacks money too if necessary
No way dbacks move Swanson so early.
Here’s a list of pitchers, all of whom could be dealt this winter for hitting, that I’d take ahead of Shelby Miller: Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar, Tyson Ross, and Jose Quintana. All three of those teams need legitimate outfielders. Please explain how Miller brings back Soler or Pollock when those same players could bring back the four pitchers mentioned above.
disagree about Ross being better than Miller, but I agree the main point is Atlanta’s price is ridiculous.
Ross had a 3.16 xFIP with 9.7 Ks per 9 innings and 3.8 walks per 9… Miller had a 4.07 xFIP with 7.5 Ks per 9 innings and 3.2 walks per 9. It’s really not even close.
Ross will be 29 in April, while Miller will be 25 for all of next season. If I’m going to be trading Soler, I’d want youth in return.
Thats fair, but its not what you originally said. You said Miller was better, which just isn’t true.
I’d also want more than a league-average pitcher, though –
29 with less miles on his arm than a typical 29 year old would have. Ross has shown to be consistently solid as a number 2 and is controlled for the next 2 years. Miller is younger, but doesn’t have the track record or stuff to compete with Ross.
As a soler lover, if i’m giving up Soler id rather take Miller in return instead of Ross
Soler couldn’t bring back Quintana, Carrasco or Salazar by himself.
Pollock is more valuable than all of them with the exception of MAYBE Quintana.
If he couldn’t do it by himself, then the addition of someone like Christian Villanueva would be the difference – especially for an American League team that could simply plug in Soler at DH.
As for Pollock – yes, he’s more valuable than Soler because he proved more last year than Soler did. But Soler’s power is off the charts. His issue has been health, which is something that might be a moot point if he plays DH.
And to add to that – Cleveland isn’t trading both guys, and if they’re offered Soler AND Pollock for one of them, they’d certainly make the deal for Pollock.
Unfortunately it looks like Miller will be traded. I was hoping the Braves would keep him to head the future of our strong rotation. But I do see a really good haul for Miller. It upsets me when young players have a good year and people say, “Oh he will just regress next year”. Really? This past season could just as easy be the new norm for him or better. And yes I feel like some really good young players can regress also. Point is, it is a gamble. No one knows what player will pan out in the long term.
I think its more about his 3.83 ERA in the 2nd half, and underwhelming overall peripherals than people just randomly thinking hes going to regress.
A lot of that can be attributed to the bullpen allowing each and every inherited runner to score
Right, that is valid. But it is also possible he could be the guy from the first half for a whole season, there could be many factors for the reason why he dropped off.
But his second half was closer to the guy he was in St. Louis
Yes. And if he was 30, I would agree with you 100%. But he’s not 30, what he did when he was 23 shouldn’t be his baseline. I’m not saying he will for sure be better, i’m saying that we don’t know what he will be. For better or worse.
True, but it shows that he’s doing at 25 what he did at 23. That’s not a good thing.
Wonder if the Braves would pull a Kimbrel and package someone like Swisher/Bourn with Miller….
I’m fine with trading Miller, but we BETTER be getting position players back. Enough with the pitchers, we need to hit, the team is abysmal with the bat.
That would only make sense if they were to sign a top pitcher this off season and I don’t see that happening. Yes they want the money off the books but it’s only this year and they don’t plan on competing this year.
Miller, Vizcaino, and a B prospect for Soler and Baez
Im a dodgers fan and that would never happen. You are overvaluing miller immensely.
that package wouldn’t get you either Soler or Baez.
remember that the Cubs have already had a good long look at Vizcaino once already… and valued Tommy La Stella more.
Cubs knew about coming suspension and put one over on the Braves which they would gladly reverse.
Not buying it. Sorry!!!
$217 million for 7 years for a mature pitcher never works. Teams with money need to spend it and the Red Sox have plenty of money.
Can I please ask any of the Shelby Miller “haters”(spiteful Philly fans included) why they believe his career arc will either plateau or begin declining? Why? How are you coming to these premature conclusions?
The kid is only 25 years old, has posted very good numbers in his 3+ seasons, has shown tremendous “stuff”, and has already exhibited flashes of dominance.
I don’t think anybody is saying he’s the next Nolan Ryan, but c’mon. This kid is young, proven, and still has a whole lot of potential.
Yes, he didn’t have the best second half after having a tremendous first half, but for all we know that second half is the anomaly and not the first half(and I honestly believe that to be true).
With Zack Greinke getting ready to sign some surely absurd contract, I’d advise you to look back at his career numbers. Aside from one brilliant season in his age 25 season, I’m sure the majority of you would’ve considered him a “#3 starter” through his age 28 season(at which point he’d been in the league for 9 seasons). I’d say he’s panned out just fine, don’t you think?
I think the root of their beliefs is that some Braves fans genuinely believe he’d be worth a Pollock, when in reality, he’s simply a middle of the rotation pitcher for a majority of the league. Kid has great stuff, but he’s not necessarily a guy you clear the system for
I hear you, and I can understand that. Given what each has produced in their young careers, Pollock is the more valuable asset. Shelby’s no Sale or Gray, no doubt, but he’s pretty good in his own right. So although I wouldn’t expect teams to clear their systems for him or even trade a superstar prospect, I would certainly expect a desirable return (especially since he’s young and controllable).
Should Pollock be untouchable? Probably, yeah. Is he untouchable? I’m not sure, but it wouldn’t hurt to ask(considering the Bravos fleecing of Dave Stewart earlier this season). Would it take more than Shelby? Yeah. I don’t think they have to add THAT much more to equate the value though. An earlier poster mentioned Miller and Vizcaino, which would be a closer match. Do the D’backs go for it? Maybe, but probably not. I imagine they’ll have to be “blown away”, but every GM has their own interpretation of being blown away.
because his peripherals from last year show a FIP and WHIP nowhere near ‘ace’ levels, his K’s were fairly low and his walks fairly high? Meanwhile all his pitching metrics rose as the year went on, which is actually something that’s he’s always had a tendency to do throughout his entire career.
And he just so happened to have his best year while pitching in a fairly pitcher friendly park in a division where just about every other team was offensively challenged at best most of the year?
Miller can be a good no. 3… but his ceiling is pretty much exactly what you saw from him this year. expecting him to progress rather than regress is more wishful thinking than it is based on anything stat related.
I hear what you’re saying, but that logic is fundamentally wrong if you definitively believe he won’t improve any as he gets older(thus gaining more experience, practice, knowledge). Stats merely provide a foundation for making general assumptions, rather than accurately predicting future outcomes. Stats are flawed in that they cannot account for human progress or the unforeseen. Stats are simply numbers on a page without the possibility of intangibles.
He’s only 25 and has already pitched 3+ very good seasons. He has established himself as a very good MLB pitcher and has shown a level of consistency required to have a long successful career. If I’m the pitching coach of a similar young pitcher, I’m ecstatic. That’s exactly what I want to see. Now that he’s firmly established himself as a quality pitcher, he can begin to concentrate on what it takes to reach that next level of greatness.
I’ll refer back to my Zack Greinke example. Now I’m not directly comparing their skill sets or their career arcs. Zack is his own human entity(every person is unique to their own capabilities) but I’ll use him for the arguments sake. Stats would not have foreseen him becoming the pitcher he showed in his age 25 season. Likewise, when his career “plateaued” for a few years after that, stats wouldn’t have predicted him to become the absolute beast he is today.
Shelby’s currently no ace, that I won’t refute. I personally think there are plenty of teams who would certainly take him as a 2. Heck, the WS champs would’ve happily taken Shelby for their 2 over Volquez or Ventura going into the playoffs. He may not be a 2 on every team, but that quality 2 starter potential is there(if it isn’t already). So with that said, I personally don’t know if he’ll ever reach that dominant 1 Ace status(he might or he might not), but I will gladly take a quality 2 on my team absolutely any day of the week.
Miller has a career WHIP in the 1.2s and that’s not skewed by a single season. In a less pitcher-friendly home park, his ERA will go from 3.00 to 4.00. I think his ceiling is more in the #3 starter range, maybe a #4 on a contender. I don’t have anything against the guy or his potential, but as a Cubs fan, I’m not buying high with a Jorge Soler package on a #4 starter with the other options that are out there.
You’re entitled to your opinion, and you may ultimately be right. We’ll have to agree to disagree though. As stated in the posts above, I believe he’s currently a 2 for some teams with the potential of enhancing, or at least maintaining, that level of performance throughout the prime of his young career.
Simplisticness, yes he is a #2. I’d love for somebody to name 60 SP’s better than him.
30 teams x 2 = 60 pitchers.
Please somebody do that.
In a simplistic view, that works. But being the #2 on the Phillies staff isn’t the same as being the #2 on the Dodgers staff. I mean, Aaron Harang was arguably the Phillies best pitcher in 2015!
Miller is a top 60 pitcher, but he’s a #3 in Chicago or LA. He might be a #6 on the Mets staff!
I agree that he’s a #2 for some teams, but he’d be a #3 on the Cubs at the moment. I wouldn’t part with Soler or Baez for him at this point, mostly because I believe either player could return a better player than Miller in a trade.
I’m a bit skewed having watched the regression of Travis Wood who had better peripheral numbers than Miller at the same age, but couldn’t translate those into long-term success as a starter. ERAs in the 3.00s with WHIPs in the 1.2s aren’t sustainable over the long haul and that’s what Miller has consistently turned in over his first three full seasons.
didn’t mean to push post yet…
I agree that to remain a #1 or #2 with a 1.20 whip that you also need to have a high K rate, which he lacks, to get out of jams. Until this season, Gerrit Cole had a higher whip for a #1 than I prefer, but it worked for him because of a high K rate (and a good defense that shifts a lot).
I decided not to reply in full, but the argument “he’s a #3” is much different than “he’s a #3 ON A CONTENDING TEAM” especially when talking about the NL since the playoff teams in the NL this season had stout rotations. But following that logic I can say “If Robinson Cano was on the Astros, he would now be a backup 2B on every team since the Astros have Jose Altuve starting at 2B.” The very reason Miller was traded was because the Cardinals saw him as expendable due to their great rotation. They didn’t need him, just like the mets wouldn’t need him.
He would have been a #2 for the Angels. A #1 for the Rangers until they got Hamels. Anywhere from a #2-4 for the Astros with their weird rotation. #1 for the Blue Jays until they got Price. #1 for the Twins. #2 for the Yankees, maybe 3. And possibly a #1 for the World Series Champions
Again, the arguments aren’t the same at all, and a lot of teams would love to have him in their #2. If he’s in the #3 spot for a team then they have a loaded rotation.
I’m really coming at this from the perspective of a Cubs fan in that I think Soler and Baez are worth more individually on the trade market or even in the Cubs lineup than Shelby Miller would be in their rotation. That’s all. Sorry to upset the Shelby Miller fans out there.
Wonder if the cards could get freeman and tehran and even bethancourt for a package of matt adams, jon jay, alex reyes, gonzalez, and wisdom or mercado and some money to offset jays salary? Bethancourt can be groomed to replace yadi
From a Braves standpoint, Put Matt Carpenter in for Adams and Charlie Tilson instead of Wisdon, Then I like the deal.
Someone needs to tell Dave Stewart that he doesn’t have to call a reporter every day and give him the rundown of every phone call he took that day …
Pretty soon agents and GM’s are going to stop wanting to work with him if all he does is leak offers made by other teams.
Didn’t he do this last winter as well? I know there was a GM doing it and thought it was him, but I don’t remember.
A healthy Soler will hit .290 with 25 home runs in 2016. As a Cubs fan, I’m not interested in buying high on Shelby Miller.
Oh my science, is there a way to filter out comments from certain people?
Justinept, you don’t have to comment on every single person’s post and continue to rebute. I’m not even sure if I agree or disagree with your points because I started skipping over your name. I’d like to read other opinions without you trying to totally DOMINATE the comment section. If you feel the need that everyone MUST agree with you, then please go to a Cubs forum. You seem to be knowledgeable, but other people are allowed to have an opinion.
Idk if its good/bad to b a braves player atm
Cant see the Cubs giving up an outfielder where they are currently challenged. Should be looking at Julio Teheran, Ricardo Sanchez and a utility infielder such as Ciriaco or Castro for Jorge Soler or Javier Baez and Starlin Castro. Cubbies take Swisher in the deal to even up the money or throw in Carl Edwards Jr.
Soler isn’t going anywhere. And he better not be traded.
The red sox easily have the tools to get him benintendi and moncada are untouchable but if you give away guys like henry owens who had decent starts his rookie year and devers plus bradley that easily should get you a shelby miller