We’ve already published some early reactions last night to Zack Greinke’s six-year, $206.5MM contract with the Diamondbacks, yet the baseball world has plenty more to say about the industry-shocking deal. Here’s some more opinions and news…
- It will take more than just Greinke to make the D’Backs the NL West favorites in 2016, MLB.com’s Mike Petriello writes. That said, the team was on track to improve even without Greinke, and his addition obviously greatly upgrades the rotation, which was Arizona’s greatest need.
- The Dodgers made a curious choice in not spending more to land Greinke, FOX Sports’ Jon Paul Morosi opines. While Arizona surpassed all industry expectations for Greinke’s contract, the Dodgers have the financial might to never be outbid on any player they truly want, and the fact that they were willing to offer Greinke a five-year, $155MM deal indicates that there was legitimately interest on Los Angeles’ part. With Greinke gone, the Dodgers now have to spend either money or prospects to acquire another ace.
- Had the Dodgers been willing to part with some top prospects, they could’ve landed Cole Hamels from the Phillies last season and already had another long-term ace on hand to cushion the blow if Greinke left, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal notes. While the Dodgers, like any team, are loath to move their best minor leaguers, Rosenthal argues that L.A. is in unique position to instantly reload the farm system given how much they’ve spent to dominate the international talent market.
- The Dodgers’ offer already put them beyond their comfort zone, and the team believed they were on the verge of welcoming Greinke back, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times writes. The Dodgers thought “the issue was more about how to structure a deal and less about whether there would be one.” For Dodger fans, this is the clearest sign yet that the team wants to get a younger roster, as it is “terrified” of being hamstrung by too many unreliable veterans on huge contracts, a la the Yankees and Phillies of recent years.
- Despite this fear, the Dodgers don’t really have all that many long-term salary commitments, as ESPN’s Buster Olney points out in his latest subscriber-only column. Carl Crawford, Andre Ethier, Brett Anderson and Alex Guerrero all come off the books after 2017 while Adrian Gonzalez, Yasiel Puig, Hyun-jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy are all free agents after 2018. Like Morosi and Shaikin, Olney points out that the Dodgers now face extra pressure from their fans as, after years of exorbitant spending, a star player has now left for financial reasons.
- From the Diamondbacks’ perspective, Olney reports that some around the industry feel the club could eventually have to cut costs due to the signing, as the Snakes did for spending so freely in the years leading up to their 2001 World Series title. Still, Arizona’s payroll is greatly helped by the fact that Paul Goldschmidt’s contract has become a huge bargain.
- Other teams aren’t pleased with the signing, ESPN’s Jayson Stark tweets, noting that the D’Backs have received almost $80MM in revenue sharing payments over the last three years. (As other writers have responded in other tweets, however, it seems like teams would be just as upset if the D’Backs pocketed the money instead of spending it on players.)
- With the Greinke market escalating to such incredible heights, Bruce Jenkins of the San Francisco Chronicle argues that the Giants were fortunate to get out of the hunt rather than commit so much money to a 32-year-old pitcher. Jenkins feels the Giants could pivot to signing both Mike Leake and Jeff Samardzija, just to increase the heat on the Dodgers. One of those steps has already been taken, as the Giants agreed to a five-year deal with Samardzija today.
I love how a lot of big-market owners seem to think that teams getting revenue-sharing money owe it to them to sit back quietly and just sign a much of mid-tier players and not compete.
I don’t think anyone expects that. Knock it off with the napoleon complex.
I along with a lot of other people outside of Diamondback fandom just don’t see how this is a good long term move for a mid market team that can only fill their stadium at 50-55% capacity since 2010. How are they going to retain Goldschmidt in 4 years when he hit free agency after the 2019 season? By that time he’ll cost nearly $30M AAV himself if Chris Davis is already rumored to be worth $25M AAV today, Goldschmidt is way better than Davis so I can only imagine what he’ll get in 4 years. Not just the Diamondbacks but I don’t think ANY team can afford 2 $30M AAV players. Signing greinke pretty much means Goldschmidt only has 4 years left in the desert….. enjoy them while they last. Unless of course the diamondbacks somehow magically become an annual $200 M payroll team in the near future…… or they just have Goldschmidt and Greinke and then a bunch of mediocre, $2-3M annually type players. I think it’s reasonable to assume that the D-backs annuall payroll for the foreseeable future won’t and can’t go much higher than $150M, which is a HUGE increase from what it has been which is around $80-100M the last few years. Even with a TV deal it is still a mid market team so i couldn’t imagine that TV deal being worth enough to warrant payrolls north of $150M. The Cubs outside of Lester, Edwin Jackson, and Miguel Montero pretty much fielded an entire team of very young and talented league minimum and arbitration-type players. Their payroll was still $120 M in 2015, and those “big 3” in terms of money players “only” cost $45M….. Greinke alone costs $34M. So while a feel good moment now for desert dwellers….. this Greinke deal could be the bane of Diamondback fans’ existence in about 3-4 years. Rubby, Corbin, Pollock, and Hudson all too will need extensions before Greinke’s contract expires. A lot of talent looks to be becoming available to the rest of the league coming out of Arizona in the next few years. Because not only do they have Greinke, but Tomas by 2018 will be making $13.5M. By 2020 he’ll be making $17M. Unless they find a suitor for Tomas that is. But right now it is looking like they’re stuck with Tomas, a player without a home in the field. And is Tomas really all he was cracked up to be. Was pretty mediocre at the plate in 2015 in 400 ABs. Granted it was his first year and all, but still. A .300 OBP and OPS barely over .700 couldn’t be what was expected out of him judging by the huge deal he signed. I see the Diamondbacks being financially handcuffed in 3 or so years for sure. Greinke took the money and doesn’t seem to care he’ll be more of a financial hinderance to that team and prevent them from compiling a stellar team. I don’t blame him though. Diamondbacks would’ve been MUCH better off signing both Samardzija and Leake IMO. Not only for 2016 but for the future as well.
Lots of teams can afford 2 30MM AAV players. The tigers have Cabrera (31MM) and verlander (28)
What you mention is important.. But… the Dbacks could be doing what the Bluejays did, and going for it, with a 3/4year window to win it, with 2-3 years of slugging along in a rebuild, maybe longer.. The big market teams have learned from the Yankees and Phillies with dead money contracts, so those midmarket teams need to take bigger risks and go for it, or they will alwys be on the outside looking in. Their tv contract was actually pretty sizable though… I think it was darn near close to the Phillies deal… but the phillies did comcast a favor and not have it bid out..
For real. Isn’t that the point of revenue sharing?
Well stated.
Not sure where the notion of a team needing two aces came from. Trading for top tier RP’s would probably be cheaper and have just as much of an impact.
Bull pen was a weak spot for the dodgers. Rotation had it struggles but the pen struggles were worst
Yeah, the Dodgers have had two of the best pitchers in baseball the past two years and nothing to show for it because of that Pen, it isn’t Greinke’s fault, the idea of spending on another ace and not the bullpen is flawed thinking. It is similar to putting 5k dollar rims on a 1k dollar car.
In the end the Dodgers failed to advance not because of the bullpen but because they lacked a playoff-worthy third starter.
Bruce Jenkins of SFchron would have been the first one praising the giants if they signed Greinke. He is a big homer of the giants and almost never says a bad thing about the team. He even says the dbacks are not very good when they played the giants tough last season. Greinke should be looked at the dbacks trying to stay even with the teams in the NL west and compete. The division got much stronger with him signing with the dbacks.
Just because the Dodgers have talent in the farm don’t mean it need to use it in trade. How about they keep the talent and let them come up and see what they can do.
it is because the Dodgers are in win now mode!! They want a WS and continue to shell out money to try and get one. As an organization they do not want to rely on too many young players. They are afraid of the growing pains youngsters might bring. That is why they benched Pederson last season. He started struggling so they benched him instead of letting him work through them. They don’t have the patience to let them develop at the big league level.
If the Dodgers are trying to buy a championship then why didn’t they resign Grienke? How did the Redo Sox beat them to Price, or how about Zimmerman or Samadzija? Maybe they’ll land Cueto but he wasn’t the first or even second choice.
The Dodgers don’t want to rely on young players and go through the growing pains but they worked hard to build one of baseballs best farm systems?
You’re also wrong about Pederson. From the month of may on, he didn’t bat better than .236 and it only got worse..much worse. He had over 400 at bats of this.He didn’t just START struggling. He struggled a lot for most of the year.
Royals benched and demoted a 22 year old Alex Gordon. That seemed to work out okay.
Revenue sharing is part of the deal–bigger market teams subsidize the smaller–and the idea is to have more competitiveness. If I were a big market team, I’d be more upset with the teams who tank and receive revenue sharing–those are the teams who field deliberately poor teams–and bring those teams into high revenue teams stadiums to impact attendance. And I’d be upset, if I was competing for a playoff spot, and see a rival head for a September three game series against a team that sold off everything at the deadline, and is now fielding the not ready and the never was. But spending to get better–I think that’s the point.
Geez the media is just pathetic. “The Dodgers need two aces”, but if they are talking about another team, then they will be like, “oh they just need a solid arm to compliment their ace.” Goes to show that the media is overreacting to the Dodgers like they are God or something. Look they are the same team like anybody else and the media is just overvaluing this team too much and wanting more out of them instead of another team. Dodgers now have a smarter front office and will not spend a lot of money just to satisfy the media and the idiotic “fans” They are making smarter choices that will make this team a lot better whether they like it or not.
i don’t think it’s even because of the size of the market or anything, i think people are just used to the dodgers having kershaw and greinke, so if greinke’s gone they “need to replace him”, when that isn’t really how it works. there’s lots of different ways to build a team
I don’t see how they replace him unless they go out and get Cueto. Or do they go the trade route for shelby miller or one of the indians pitchers.
The reason is 27 years and counting of growing fan frustration. Ownership pledged to give Dodgers fans satisfaction in the near term while rebuilding a farm system that was neglected by two previous owners. Letting Greinke walk (while simultaneously raising ticket prices) is rightly taken by fans as a poke in the eye with a blunt stick.
Might as well make that number 30…. So would you trade Seager and Urias now for Hamels? Those unproven MLB tested prospects probably don’t look so untouchable now… do they? What is really “untouchable” is the WS title that the Dodgers have been trying to win…
Teams don’t absoluley need 2 Aces… but lets be honest.. Does it hurt? No, not when you are in the playoffs. You need an Ace, and a darn good number 2, and a second #2 for the playoffs. Obviously a few ways to do it… but if you were in position to have grienke and you have the dodgers financial might… you just do it…. except the dodgers have down syndrome when knowing to go for it. Unbelievable from an outsiders perspective. They botched Hamels and Grienke. How’d you feel rolling into 2016 with Kershaw, Grienke, and Hamels? BTW … Hamels contract looks cheap now doesn’t it?
Arizona was better last year than everyone thinks. They scored 720 runs and allowed 713. They could have just as easily been a few games OVER 500 as under. With Grienke, they might not be the run away favorite to take the west but winning 85 games in 2016 is far from crazy and at this very moment, that makes them competitive with the Giants and Dodgers.
It’s crazy if they don’t address that bullpen this offseason. The reason they were a sub 500 team in 2015 despite scoring 720 runs was because that bullpen was UG-LY
There runs scored compared to runs allowed still shows a team just as likely to be a 500 team as a few over or under. They actually outscored the league. This could push them to 85 wins. Maybe with an upgraded bullpin they could flirt with 90
Spend money, you get criticized. Don’t spend money, you get criticized. Being a GM of a Yankee, Dodger, Red Sox team is a no win situation.
Its about smartly spending money. Something none of those teams have done.
No one criticized the Phillies when they signed Cliff Lee, extended Halladay, Hamels or Utley, but they did criticize the Howard, Papelbon, Ruiz and Rollins deals.
Every team is like that. No one criticized the Posey, Pence, MadBum, Romo or Peavy deals, but people did criticize the Pagan, Scurato, and Lincecum deals.
Giants don’t operate like a big market and in terms of revenue, they are well below the Dodgers and Yanks… they’re on par with the Red Sox, but the Sox benefit because of NESN.
The Phillies messed up because they kept trading for guys. Because they were winning and didn’t spend much Internationally, they weren’t able to replenish the system. The Dodgers are trying to rebuild and win.
With such a great free agent class as this, all I can think of is what the Red Sox could have done had they not signed Hanley, Pablo, and Porcello to these contracts.
It’s because they’ve set a standard of spending money irresponsibly. It’s what’s become expected from them. I don’t think anyone is criticizing them either. Being shocked they didn’t piss money away is actually paying them a compliment. And Boston already did piss money away in Price, so no one is “criticizing” them.
Being a GM of any team is a no win situation by the way. If sensible diamondback fans are voicing their opinion, they should be upset how much their team just splooged all over Greinke. Goldschmidt, Pollock, Corbin, and other notables all become free agents during the span of Greinke’s contract. NO WAY now can they afford to keep all of them, they’ll be lucky to afford to keep one of them. If Chris Davis is rumored to be worth $25M AAV now, imagine what Goldschmidt will fetch in 4 years. $30+M is my guess. Pollock and Corbin will be free agents after the next 3 years. Pollock has become a baseball darling after FINALLY breaking through after 3.5 years in the bigs. Corbin is a solid SP and if he stays healthy the next few years leading up to his free agent opportunity, he could easily become a $25M AAV arm as well. In his last 2 seasons he’s seen game time action Corbin has started 48 games, 3.47 ERA, 3.41 FIP, about 8K/9, and 2BB/9 averages. He keeps that up and he will be worth a ton in 3 years. Jordan Zimmermann has put up similar numbers (be it over a longer period of time, which is why I say Corbin needs to stay healthy the next 3 years) over his career and he is already worth $22M. If Corbin keeps it up and starts 32 games each of the next 3 seasons he’ll at the very least command something like $25M in free agency annually. So can the Diamondbacks keep $34M Greinke, soon to be $30M Golodschmidt, $25M Pollock, and $25M Corbin……. no. No team can afford all those players. To top it off, Yasmany Tomas is going to cost them $17M in 2020. If they were to hypothetically pay these players these salaries, assuming they’ve played well enough to earn them, that’s $131M for 5 players in 2020….. hahahahahaha. In other words, in the next 3-4 years look for some stellar free agents hitting the market out of Arizona.
That’s a false narrative that they’ve spent irresponsibly. Yes, the payroll last season was $300M, but they were buying prospects and contractual flexibility so they wouldn’t have too many old players taking up roster spaces.
They’ve been saying since Day 1 that they want to be more of a player development team like the Cardinals and Braves of the 90s-early 00s.
I don’t think the Dodgers necessarily need to go get another ace. They were like .500 when Grienke or Kershaw didn’t start. Thats a problem.
They should explore the bullpen market more than anything.
They should sign one of Madson, O’Day, Soria or Clippard, then trade for a top-tier SU man.
Imagine something like Puig for Ken Giles, Carlos Tocci and Scott Kingery.
That is the best line of thinking of even multiple lesser starters, replacing Greinke 1 for 1 just isn’t going to happen or would cost their entire farm system to do. They need to replace Greinke with multiple pieces.
I said it at the deadline, they should of been better off trading for Hamels incase they lost greinke and now look at them, now do they spend on cueto, or do they go second tier and wait till next year to make a run at strasburg.
they value their farm alot. so to them it wasnt worth it to trade for hamels. either way doesnt matter how many good pitchers you have if you dont have a pen. since you know the dodgers pretty much didnt have a pen which cost them
It will cost them a lot this year since they don’t have the 1-2 punch of kershaw and greinke anymore
That is sort of the issue though…. they have overvalued their system vs their window. IF chicago keeps developing and peaking the way they are… Gotta believe they will be the powerhouse of the NL.. heck the pirates got pretty screwed this year by the wack 2nd WC.
Prospects are prospects … and for a reason.. Sometimes you have to cash in, if not the WS title your chasing becomes more “untouchable” then prospects you are unwilling to move. Dodgers better win at least one with Seager and Urias now. Hope Kershaw and Puig will be around by then to… Its just a constant moving window. They just came back to the rest of the pack with these 2 decisions (passing on Hamels and Grienke).
No guarantee they would’ve won with Hamels. Think the A’s would still do that Addison Russell deal?
Seager already looks like someone you build around and Urias is the best or 2nd best pitching prospect.
So did Dom Brown and Will Middlebrooks… You can make a case for either argument… But it doesn’t really matter if Seager and Urias are pieces you build around if Puig and Grienke are gone. You essentially have the same team as you did before…. but without the high valued prospects to sell off. Obviously salary is altered, but that shouldn’t be an issue for the Dodgers, like other teams… losing Grienke also revealed a kink is LA’s Daddy war bucks bank…LA taxes. Taxes matter… a lot at 30 mil a year over 6-7 years
I can see arguments for both sides, but from my view.. I’d of pulled the trigger and went for it. There was a guarantee on the deadline trades for the dodgers… “You miss 100% of the chances you never take”. Certainly an unwelcomed result that fans who regard their prospects as can’t miss players… no such thing. Ask the redsoxs, Yanks, Phils. etc… every team has them. Look at heyward….. he’s regressed… Look at Hellickson… Winning the WS is not just about having talent… its also about “timing” and how all those pieces fit. Sometimes the ticket to the big dance is expensive, but if you get there… you are in the big dance… you can’t ask for more. Its time to make it happen at that point.
Either way, Texas offer was better than anything the Dodgers could’ve offerred if you only make 1 of Seager or Urias untouchable
The Dodgers offer of 5/155 would’ve been in line with what Cliff Lee got at 32/33. I’m glad that was their final offer.
Now the cubs are looking for a top closer, I wonder who that is
Did you ever think that maybe Greinke simply didn’t want to play in LA anymore, and that maybe he sees that the Diamondbacks have a wonderful front office, facilities, young talent, coaching, Physical Trainer, and that those things lured him away from LA. Greinke Is quite with documented social anxiety disorders, and maybe the LA environment was not good for him.
He has said a ton of times that he would play for the most money. He has pitched great in LA so his anxiety has been fine. I’m sure a lot of players suffer from anxiety and other problems. Do you think that a 206/6 for a 32 year old pitcher was not the highest offer?
The Revenue Sharing served it’s purpose. AZ was able to get a top FA away from an elaborate spending team, Thus balancing the division.
I really thought we were going to obtain Greinke back. Then again Kasten has been parsing that the organization is going into “Phase 2.” I never suspected it would be this dramatic.
On the offensive side of things, I could see us re-signing Utley to platoon at 2B with Hernandez and Peraza (a one year stop gap like Rollins to Seager). We need SP depth, and I could see Freidman and Co. giving Iwakuma a two year deal (Kershaw, Wood, Anderson, Iwakuma and Ryu/McCarthy/Weiland/Boslinger). As for the bullpen, this is where our money should be relocated to make up for the lost ground on Greinke. Sign Clippard and trade for Chapman (Gurerro (cash)and De Leon). A baffling change-up from the right side and 100 mph fastball on the left could be a good pairing.
Cole Hamels…. Cole freaking Hamels…. well at least Rosenthal understands that the Dodgers shouldve pooped while on the toliet….. Seager and Urias are “untouchable” … well so is that W.S. title they are after!
You know what else is lost in the Dodgers not going for cole hamels … was his salary. He will make 23mil for 3 more year, and last one at 20mil. 23mil vs 31-34mil p/yr… 8-10 mil is a lot of change to help add another bullpen piece or pieces with a shuffling of the roster.