We rarely hear such dramatically opposing takes on players as Jason Heyward has drawn in free agency. His reported signing today — for eight years & $184MM with the Cubs — only ratcheted things up another level.
It’s long been expected that Heyward would command this level of contract. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted ten years and $200MM. I guessed the same (and profiled Heyward’s free agent case, if you are interested in reading more). And we certainly weren’t out on a limb.
As I noted earlier tonight, Heyward’s deal, which critically includes opt-out rights after both three and four years, is arguably a more valuable compensation package than the $200MM pacts we posited. Regardless whether you think the other offers available were preferable, we can all agree that he was paid like a superstar.
There’s little sense in re-hashing all the arguments for and against Heyward here. The above links contain plenty of information in that regard, and most of our readers have probably already made up their minds.
So, time to make it official: does the MLBTR readership view Heyward as a prime-aged, prime-performing asset or a low-power hitter who just isn’t worth this kind of a deal?
Heyward vs. lefties (1038 PA): .230/.309/.351
That’s the definition of a platoon player.
That just makes him more versatile. Not to mention Heyward can still be valuable vs lefties because of his defense.
A platoon player is more versatile? That makes you less versatile. Playing more than one position makes you more versatile.
It’s easy to forget he’s just 26. Still has time to make adjustments and improve his splits. He went through streaks with the Braves where he would compress his swing a bit and hit lefties pretty well.
In 2010 his OPS vs. lefties was .755
In 2013 his OPS vs. lefties was .805.
In 2015 his OPS vs. lefties was .709
Point being these aren’t consistent numbers. He has yet to touch on his massive potential and a good batting coach could really help him make strides toward superstardom, even if he never becomes a 30 home run threat.
This is best shown by the fact that his strikeout rate has decreased 4 years running.
how can he do that? field his own hit balls?
2015- AB 162 AVG .272 OBP .344
Those were the numbers he ran 2015. Picking on a players life time averages is a faulty way of attempting to understand how effective they are at this moment and never more true than with young players.
2014- AB 142 AVG .169 OBP .252 SLG .225
Large samples are always preferred over small samples.
No they aren’t. His rookie at bats don’t tell you what he is capable of now. What you are saying isn’t reasonable.
Rookie bats are good to compare him now, but neither is picking out one season. The best thing to do is the average the last three season. It has to do with law of large numbers and getting the sample size large enough. A sample size of 600 just isn’t large enough. The fact is they are playing him for his glove and his legs. Runs saved is almost as valuable as runs produced. (I did say almost)
Aren’t good*
Hank Aaron and Willie Mays have large sample sizes and great numbers. You should sign them if recent numbers don’t matter that much.
Vs. LHP in 2015 he hit .272 BA and a .344 OBP. Where’s that tidbit of info at. I can also say Anthiny Rizzo used to blow hard against LHP too, yet he’s turned it around the last 2 years. He went from being a 100 something hitter against lefties as not too long ago as 2013, and is now nearly a .300 hitter against lefties. One could say that, “well Heyward has been in the league longer than Rizzo, so he should be way better by now.” Well….. that’s true. But Anthony Rizzo is exactly 1 day older than Heyward and while Rizzo figured out LHP in 2014, it took Heyward until 2015 to figure them out. If you’re a solid stake holder in the (in my opinion) WAR “stat” then Heyward has been more valuable than Rizzo the last 2 years. 12.7 vs. 11.4 WAR respectively. Personally, I am NOT a believer in WAR and think it is actually a joke of a stat. However, Heyward is one of the best OFers defensively. I strongly believe that as a Cub he will be a 20+ HR hitter again. And I honestly believe his 2015 BA is no fluke (.293) and think he’ll hit .280-.295 for the coming seasons. Even if he stays at about the .270 clip it’s still valuable. That’s because along with those 20+ HRs I think he’ll hit as a Cub year in and out, he’ll also be a 20+ SB threat. How many 20-20 players do you know? On top of all this he is still easily a .355 OBP guy….. if not better. How many .350-.360+ OBP guys do you know who are legit 20-20 threats? McCutchen and……. and…….. and….. Oh yeah, he plays STELLAR defense in the OF as well. If he puts up and identical year he had in STL only with 20 HRs instead of 13 the next 3 years each he’ll DEFINITELY opt out after 3 years. Pending contract structure, I like to believe the Cubs gave him a backloaded contract which has been the case for a majority of FA players the last several years. My guess he’s an $18M AAV player for the first 3 years….. $19M AAV tops. That means he will likely cost the Cubs only 3 years and $54-57M over the next 3 years……. I’d call that a HUGE steal since the general consensus is that Heyward’s market value was 10 years and $200+M in dollars. IMO, if he stays healthy he’s a 3 year player with well above average production and only cost $60M and likely less. That’s highway robbery for a 26 year old FA who is decent hitter to date, and a gold glove caliber defensive player. Cubs win in so many ways on this deal, IMO….. trying to put bias aside. The guy’s a bona fide beast defensively. As a hitter and entering his age 26 season; after coming off of his best hitting season in STL I’d like to think it only means more success is on the way. He’s a career .355ish OBP guy, which is more than “good enough” for the top of the order. Crazy thing is if he just hits 20 HRs a season the next 3 years…… only 7 more than he hit last year in HR UNfriendly Busch stadium…… he’ll be worth every penny the Cubs own him for. Even at a .270 BA, .350+ OBP, 20 HRs, 20 SBs, and gold glove caliber defense…… yeah, he’ll get INSANE money after 3 years with the Cubs…… barring injury of course. Cubs have him for 3 or the more unlikely 4 years. At, say, $19M AAV over FOUR years. Those 3 years very well could become the 3 best of Heywards career. He’s setup to become a 20 HR hitter in HR friendly Wrigley Field. He gets and stays at the 20-20 position for the next 3 years and he is UNDER paid.
Bottom line, heyward is one of the best OF players in the game, both defensively and offensively…. especially with the Cubs. To argue that, IMO, is a baseless argument and not worth the time to partake in.
Lawrdy Lawrdy. Such stream of consciousness writing. How many grams of blow do you go through per week?
A commenter goes into great detail defending why he thinks a particular wy and your only response is that? Grow up.
I guess you took it to be offensive…? It was a simple question. All of his posts are very stream of consciousness in nature (check out the “heyward to cubs” article for his more recent work). I’m not disagreeing with one thing he said. However, he may draw the reader in more if there were some breaks. It’s hard to follow.
Edgar Allan Poe did his best work while strung out. Some people use a little booger sugar to get the creative juices flowing. Not sure why you took it so negatively.
(There’s another piece below \/ )
I can only get through about the first 4 lines before I just scroll past and read the comments on his comments to get the main points.
Paragraphs are your friend!
Reading is hard for some. The “twitter” version for the reading impaired on what I just said is: Heyward…….. one of best player defensively. Heyward……… one of better outfielder offensively. Heyward….. hit lefties good in 2015. Heyward likely leave in 3 years, so deal 3 year <$60M……. heck of steal.
I tried taking out pointless words that just fill up so much space, and they take so much damn time to read too, amiright. I hope Jimmy can comprehend all this. I doubt it though. I'm into my 2nd paragraph now……… probably lost him after "is."
How is this deal going to be less than $60m over 3 years? You think he’d agree to a contract that is less than $60m over the time before his opt out? I’d bet over $70m before I bet under $60.
Contracts are almost NEVER frontloaded, and by almost I mean I don’t recall any contract that paid more up front than at the back end of the deal. “Worst” case scenario is the Cubs pay him the AAV over the life of the contract over the first 3 years. So $23M for 3 years is still only $69M…. not $70M+. I seriously doubt that he gets $23M AAV over those first 3 years though. 16, 18, 20, 24, 26.5, 26.5, 26.5, 26.5 is about how I see it breaking down yearly. OR 20, 20, 20, 24, 25, 25, 25, 25.
Entering his age 29 season he’d “only” have 5 years and $124-130M coming his way. If he puts up identical seasons the next three years like the one he just put up in STL only with 20 HRs each season, he’ll EASILY get offered way more than 5 years and $124-130M entering only his age 29 season.
Or if he opts out of the deal after 4 years he’d still only be entering his age 30 season as a free agent. He’d have collected about $84M over those 4 seasons as a Cub and only have $100M left over the remaining 4. Heyward (barring injury) is going to be worth waaaaaaaaaaaaay more than 4 years and $100M. I could see him getting a 7 year deal worth $200M in the winter of 2019. That means over 11 years he’d pocket $284M. Nice haul….. and the Cubs only pay $84M (tops) of that….. and likely that $84M over the best 4 years of those 11 seasons since they’d have him age 26-29…… Stellar move IMO…. not only by the Cubs, but also Heyward. He’s going to get nearly $300M over the next 10-11 years. Crazy, I know. But look at Giancarlo Stanton for proof how NOT crazy that is.
Most MLB contracts don’t include 2 opt out clauses for a 26 year old free agent.
Peralta, Jhonny – baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-…
Thanks for the twitter summary. It was much needed for us common folk. The rhetorical mastery of your previous post is in a league of its own.
“it took Heyward until 2015 to figure them out.”
Seriously?
Career: .286 BABIP, 23.2 (Soft%), 48.1 (Med%), 28.7 (Hard%)
: .350 BABIP, 27.9 (Soft%), 50.0 (Med%), 22.1 (Hard%)
The above stats tell me that he was just lucky in 2015. Thus, “large samples are always preferred over small samples.”
Career: .286 BABIP, 23.2 (Soft%), 48.1 (Med%), 28.7 (Hard%)
:2015: .350 BABIP, 27.9 (Soft%), 50.0 (Med%), 22.1 (Hard%)
Is it not weird that his BABIP went up that much with his soft% going up that much, and therefore hard% going down? That’s weird.
Not weird, just proof that 2015 was a fluke season.
I thought the same thing. I went to go check the stats to make sure they weren’t messed up by the sites formatting or something.
cubbie….obviously with the length of your post, you DO feel it’s worth the time to partake in. it’s hardly a fact Jason is one of the best offensive OF’s in the game today. In fact…he’s not close. bottom line, the last two years, this guy has averaged 12-59 and about .280 at an age/time of his career a great hitter would be double the power numbers such as Trout, Harper and Stanton produce.
What constitutes one of the best? His 121 wRC+ was 16th for qualified ofs. He’s obviously not Trout or Harper, but I think his offense gets severely under rated because people can’t look past dingers and arhbeeyez
Not one person read this
+1
pretty incredible the amount of Heyward hate on this site. Really, he’s just a “platoon player?” So you think Epstein, the Cardinals brass, the Nats and Angels baseball people can’t tell the difference between a superstar player and Chris Denorfia? They just are that far off base with this guy? And how is that Heyward is not worth anything, but guys like Inciarte and Kevin Kiermeier are untouchable baseball gods who would command the Cubs entire farm system?
The Alfonso Soriano comparisons are also ridiculous. Soriano was a bad ball hitter who was a guaranteed strikeout on three straight sliders when it mattered. He was also 31 when he signed that deal (i.e., 5 yrs. younger than Heyward) and he gave us two great seasons that included division titles. There’s absolutely no comparison between the two.
But the stupidest comments I’ve seen are the ones saying the Cubs are now World Series or bust next year. No, they’re really not. Every single key player on this team is under contract for at least the next two years, and the core of the team has only just finished their rookie seasons. Almost everyone is younger than 30. And we have a massive TV contract that will take effect in three years. We also still have a quality farm system with plenty of prospects to deal for players we might need. From a baseball perspective, from a financial perspective this team is built to compete for the World Series for the next five years, if not longer. Don’t confuse this with what Arizona or Boston are doing, where you have very little core team and you make up for that by throwing money at people. That was the old Steinbrenner model and it doesn’t work.
You think the hate for Heyward is bad here on mlbtr’s comment section? Check out what Cardinals fans have been saying on Twitter….. calling him a “f-aggot” and “n-gger”, throwing his jersey in trashcans, wishing ACL tears on him, mentioning ISIS, hoping Wainright beans him with a 100mph fastball in the jaw, all sorts of brutal things.
Probably not a coincidence that the St. Louis Cardinals is one of the few remaining all-white baseball teams in the MLB.
This stuff is everywhere. People are pointing it all out because hating on Cardinal fans is a new fad. 99.9% of Cardinal fans have said nothing negative about Heyward. Cubs fans literally threatened and ran a FAN out of town. But that was cute and ok.
I’m willing to bet being self-labeled the “best fans in baseball” has a little something to do with the haterid…
No person ever calls themselves the best fan(s) in baseball. I do not know 1 Cardinals fan that cares. Yes, the team says they have the best fans in baseball. ..just like EVERY OTHER TEAM says. It has to do with winning. That’s the only reason opposing fans dislike teams. Then they make up absurd reasons to support their hatred.
Yes they do. There is a whole BFIB twitter account with a huge following.
deadspin.com/bad-st-louis-cardinals-fans-assail-re…
The whole #BFIB is a bug running joke. Whenever you see #BFIB, it’s making fun of the media narrative that Cardinal fans actually care about being called that.
Hmmm. I don’t think it has anything to do with winning. I actually don’t mind the Cardinals TEAM. Their fans are pretty annoying though….. they still aren’t as bad as White Sox fans. To me a “hatred” for a team is generally how one feels towards that team’s fans….. not if that other team is good or not. The White Sox blow c***s and I still loathe that team…… or should I say their trash for fans. Yankees and Red Sox fans are also loathsome to me as well so it makes me like their teams waaaay less and actually happy when the team fails just to watch their D-bag fan bases hearts shatter. Sadistic of me really. But as far as a team being good or winning a lot as the root for a “hatred” toward that team? No. Another great example is the Dallas Cowboys in the NFL. NO ONE outside of that fan base likes the Cowboys. If you talk to anyone not a Cowboys fan they’ll likely say how much they hate the Cowboys. Yet the Cowboys have sucked for a majority of their existence despite ignorant Cowboy fan belief. Despite a brief period in the early 90s the Cowboys have pretty much blown for the last 30 years. Yet almost everyone hates the Cowboys and take pleasure in their failure….. or should I say Jerry Jones’ failure, haha.
Again, i actually don’t mind the Cards, and in the past have actually cheered for them in the postseason. I like how they go about building their team and rarely if ever go out and spend for a top free agent. I wouldn’t say I love or even like the Cardinals, but I would say I respect them. Whereas I have zero respect for White Sox, Red Sox, or the Yankees organizations, and definitely not their annoying fans. One observer might say I just don’t like teams who spend a ridiculous amount of money…… no not really. I still like the Dodgers and they’re the most irresponsible team with their money (until now with the addition of Andrew Friedman to the front office). I don’t like the Marlins either, mainly because their fans are pretty crappy and from what I can tell most of the people in the Miami area don’t even realize they have a MLB team. They NEVER go to support their team and the Marlins are consistently toward the bottom in average attendance. I don’t have any respect for a city or the fans if they refuse to support the team. Same goes for the Rays. The Tampa Bay area is one of the LARGEST markets in the friggin league, yet we are supposed to believe their a small market team. They’re only small market because of their crap…. or should I say lack of fans and their non-existent support. Tampa, St. Pete, and Clearwater Florida (the Tampa Bay area) has a population of nearly 2.8 MILLION people……. yet the Rays struggle to draw 15,000 people per game. NO RESPECT for them at all.
So yeah. Winning, IMO and I think many other fans opinion as well, has very little to do with how they feel towards a team.
I’LL TAKE SILLY RHETORIC FOR A THOUSAND, ALEX! “The answer is: warren”. The Cardinals like most teams in baseball have a large amount of hispanic players. The Cards have had black stars like Gibson, Flood, Brock, Ozzie, and many more. stl_carts16 is dead on. Heyward got a better deal and moved on. More power to him. Personally, as a cards fan, I’m glad the Birds didn’t break the bank to keep him anymore than Pujols. It’s a business decision for both sides. Perhaps you should go apologize to Steve Bartman when it comes to poor sportsmanship before ripping STL fans.
Sounds like the Cardinals tried to break the bank but their little hammer just wasn’t big enough.
But but but, theyre the “best fans in baseball”!!!
They hated Heyward when they traded for him, then he was awesome all year and they loved him, now he’s gone they’re back to hating him. Pathetic fanbase.
except he wasn’t “awesome” all year. don’t think for a moment the sports talk shows in STL the first couple months were filled with people labeling Mo a lunkhead for trading Shelby to Atlanta for Jason when Miller got off to a 5-1 start with a 1.33 ERA and while at the same time, Heyward was struggling along with a .211 average and 2 HR’s and not many more RBI’s? I don’t think most STL fans will boo him when he comes back to Busch. Heyward, the Cubs and Cards all made business decisions. He was only there a year. Not like Albert. In fact, no comparison. JH finished with very mediocre numbers.
the cardinals site is full of trolls, even attack each other
“Really, he’s just a “platoon player?”” => Yes, the numbers say he’s just a platoon player.
Over the last 10 seasons (2006~2015), Heyward ranks 67th in wRC+ among 101 left-handed batters with at least 500 PAs.
fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&…
well shoot, you must know a lot more about baseball than pretty much all 32 front offices and most of the baseball media as well. send a cover letter into the Padres, as they will soon have a GM spot open that you would be perfect for…
Doch you clearly are unaware of the prospects or young players Boston and Arizona currently roster/in the system. An individual could not make a more ignorant statement. Don’t be upset if individuals are hating on the heyward signing or what the Cubs are building on. Cubs won 97 games last year. They have added a valuable piece in Adam warren who will be used out of the pen I or in the event of an injury to the starting staff. Ben zobrist deal is a little frightening as his defensive metrics have been declining but he stills gets on base. Lackey is an upgrade on your number 3 spot. Cubs still have some work to do to round out the roster, but it appears they have the pieces in place to make another run at a World Series.
perhaps I don’t know their systems as well as I do the Cubs’. But you have to be pretty confident in your young players to make win now moves. The Cubs won 97 games last year, and are adding to a solid core. Both Boston and Arizona were just under.500. Does adding Price/Greinke+Miller make those teams elite now? It had better, because pitchers usually do not produce at elite levels by the end of these type of contracts/ages. Maybe some of the Cubs prospects slump next year, but there’s a solid enough line up there to survive that and still make the playoffs. If Boston’s youngsters don’t pan out immediately or Arizona’s regress those teams are in a lot of trouble.
I think that the dbacks moves were ill timed. They really don’t even get that much better by losing inciarte and being forced to play Tomas. They had a good core they were building, I think they jumped the gun.
The Red Sox are not as bad as they were last year. Pablo did exactly what I, and many others thought. He got his $$$ then proceeded to eat himself out of baseball. I have little faith that he’ll ever be more than a 1.5-2 war player.
Hanley was a disaster last year, but he just isn’t this/that bad. I expect him to hit better this year and I don’t think he can be as bad at 1b as he was at lf.
The sox added Price and Kimbrel (still a bad trade) and have made their pen better, although that’s not hard after that train wreck of last season. Additionally, the sox have a few successful young players on their mlb roster and a few more that are talented, but unproven.
In addition to all of this, they also have one of, if not the best farm systems in baseball. Their system is nice because it has a pretty diverse pool of talent, by which I mean both lower lvl and close to mlb talent and a combination of bats and arms.
As much as I can’t stand the red sox anymore due to some of their fans, I think they have a very good chance to be successful this year and in the near future.
TL:DR – Diamondbacks put their chips in too soon. BoSox have good combo of young mlb + vets + farm + fa signings.
Definitely not the definition of a platoon player, but sure, go ahead and post opinion as fact.
Solid player but not even near worth that sort of money. As a Braves fan who watched him for years, he had one good power year and streaks of hitting well. His defense is great so I’ll give him that but any team who was willing to give money in the $200 MM range were nuts. They were essentially paying for the defense and the hope that he will be player everyone thought he could be.
The fact that the Red Sox could’ve signed this guy for less AAV than Rick Porcello is depressing. #ScrewCherington!
I picked no, but it doesn’t completely sum up my opinion.
As I said in the other threads, I am THRILLED that he got the opt-outs. Heck, I hope the deal is front-loaded as well; I’d actively bait him to take the opt-outs. Heyward on a 3 or 4 year deal would be yummy.
The reason I picked “no” is because there is still that chance that we end up paying the entire contract, and that is not at all yummy. It’s especially not great with a guy whose primary skills–speed, baserunning and defense–tend not to age well.
Your use of the word yummy is the creepiest thing I have ever seen on this site by far.
Haha yeah agreed
Was hoping also he wouldn’t pick a team don’t care for some to sign with and like your Cubs JB, am sorry he picked them. Why he couldn’t have saddled a couple of the other finalists with that near 200m burden (or actual 200m if rumors are correct) is a shame. Am thinking about the only stadiums his HR numbers could have drastically increased are Yankee stadium and Camden Yards, not sure about Cincy and Arizona. Yankee stadium do believe he could have paced 25-30HR a year, where Damon and Drew discovered (rediscovered) lost power and think the place would have been tailor built for him.
Don’t think Wrigley will be all that kind to him, especially early in the spring and early in the fall when the cold winds blow.
Jason is a solid player and I think inn the back end of the deal players of his caliber will be getting this type of money. Paying this much money with his floor and ceiling I can’t argue against it. He may not be a superstar but he isn’t easily replaceable. I think it was an overpay yet justified.
The Cards have continued to win without Pujols—who was perhaps the greatest home grown Cardinal hitters of all times. Only Musial and Hornsby were in his league. The Cards won before Heyward and they can continue to win without him. Can things fall apart? Sure, a series of injuries can cripple ANY team. But the Redbirds won 100 games with their ace sidelined mos to the year and several other key players on the bench. Whether the Cubs made a smart buy remains to be seen. They are paying for potential.
Why does this have to be a black and white question? It’s not that simple.
Right now is Heyward worth it? Probably not if you compare him to other contracts but probably if you compare him to the current market.
What exactly can we compare him to? Well so few 26 year olds are ever free agents.
Is the fact that he’s a better at defense than offense make this a bad deal? Well defense has been winning World Series titles lately…
So is Heyward a good deal? It’s more uncertain than most.
Seems nearly every free agent contract is called some sort of an overpay. They range from generic overpays to massive overpays. It’s like a market for players doesn’t exist, players are making up their own salaries, and teams aren’t bidding against each other for their services.
If someone is willing and able to pay you, you’re worth it. That’s the way I see it.
Gil Meche is smiling somewhere because of you.
Interesting you picked Gil Meche? He retired with some of his contract left to go, so he could be home with family instead of trying to get through rehab in pain for something that will never come back. Haven’t heard a statement from Cuddyer yet but his retirement is likely for similar reasons. Just found the Gil Meche reference a bit curious…
Every contract is above average. It’s the Lake Wobegon Effect, from the land of impossible math. Salaries are steadily inflating along with the growth in baseball revenue. Nobody should be surprised by this anymore, but for some reason media and the fans always seem to be step behind in understanding why contracts are driven higher every year.
I think its because salaries and revenue are going up so much faster then inflation that its a continuous shock. Ryan got the first ever million a year in 1980, which would be 2.8 million today. Albert Belle got the first ever 10 million a year in 97 which would be 14 million today.
Sure but we should have some preparation for what we are seeing, year after year, and it defies logic to call virtually every free agent contract an overpay.
My example doesn’t fit this case, but would the player be worth it, if the other 31 GMs wouldn’t pay that amount and at the end of the contract that GM regretted it?
Ugg dont know why I said 31 I meant 29
By definition the team that signs a player has bid more than any other team was willing to pay for his services. That’s a market price, not an overpay. I’ve bought some things at auctions that later I wished I had not, but in reality I was willing to pay just a little more than someone else for it, so I really can’t claim that I paid too much.
This will likely only be a 3 or 4 year deal not the 8 year deal for 184 mil. If he opts out after 3 he re-enters Fa at the age of 29, which could potentially set him up for an even bigger pay day if his power numbers were to increase at all over the next 3 seasons. If he continues to hit .290+ like he did with STL and continues his superb defense and hits 20+ homers a year the next 3 years you will be talking about this being a tremendous steal for Chicago.
If he has a strong 3 years though, the Cubs would be wishing there was no opt-out, so it’s kind of a double-edged sword. Sure, they would get a nice 3 years out of him, but that’s not why you sign guys to 8-year contracts. I think opt-outs really only benefit the player, never the team, and this opt-out craze is going to continue to drive up salaries because you have stars re-hitting free agency more often (like Greinke this year) and pushing the salary envelope harder.
I feel like the opt out option is a benefit to the team in that players can view an opt out year as a contract year. A player might go more “all out” in a contract year or a couple years leading up to it to build their value. I remember Greinke when he was on Royals and they were out of it and he said he was throwing less sliders because he didn’t want to put the wear and tear on his elbow when it wasn’t for anything. A player is more willing to put their body on the line to fight for playoffs, or to earn a nice payday. A player locked up for 8 years probably just views themselves as set and gets comfortable and hits cruise control. Obviously every player and situation is different but I would bet that if you take same player on a 3 year deal, and put him in an 8 year deal, the numbers for 1-3 years wouldn’t be as strong.
If he has a strong 3 years, I think the mindset is and should be the Cubs win a World Series in that timeframe. There should be no regret on the Cubs end if they get him for most likely the best 3 years of his career….. and then part ways. If in the next 3 years the Cubs win 1 World Series (at least) Heyward has done his job and he is more than free to go chase dollars at age 29. If the Cubs win a world series in the next 3 years I myself will be done. I have waited my whole life to see the Cubs win one…… my Grandpas on both sides of my family lived their entire life without seeing one. My dad, approaching 60, has never seen a Cubs World Series win. If they were to win the World Series in the next 3 years…. or EVER in the next 10, a majority of Chicago will shut down and a ton of people will be delirious with excitement and confusion, not knowing how to celebrate a Cubs Championship. I firmly believe that it WILL be declared a city holiday when the Cubs win a world series. People throw that out there as a joke, but it actually has some weight to it. Chicago (despite Sox fans wishes and beliefs) is a Cubs town by an overwhelming majority. A Cubs World Series win will dwarf the White Sox 2005 win by at least tenfold. People WILL literally lose their minds if the Cubs were to win the World Series….. I may be one of them. I’d like to think I’d keep my cool and tell myself that “it’s only a friggin game”…….. but IDK…… I could seriously die happy knowing I’ve seen at least 1 Cubs WS team……. something my older relatives and ancestors have NEVER seen….. which is sad to realize and even sadder to type. To say your ANCESTORS have never seen a Cubs World Series series win is so pathetic……. which is why this city and the surrounding suburbs for 100 miles out will absolutely lose their friggin minds. If the Cubs were to win the World Series int he next 5 years…… I apologize in advance for the likely rioting that will go on. Not necessarily rioting, but there will be SOOOOOOO many people in the streets something it bound to get destroyed. If the Cubs were to win a world series it will be a weeklong celebration in Chicago. I seriously think at the very least parts of the city WILL shut down. NO ONE will be working in Chicago the day of and several days after the Cubs win the World Series. It WILL be that crazy and monumental in Chicago and the surrounding burbs. People joke about the national holiday thing….. but I don;t think it is as necessarily a joke….. I could see it legitimately happening. In the future I can see school kids having the day off around Halloween/first week in November to celebrate the Cubs HISTORIC World Series win…. at least in the City (they are union teachers after all who go on strike annually….. I can see Chicago school teachers going on strike for another day off to celebrate a Cubs World Series W)……. STATE holiday that is the Cubs winning it all.
What did I just read?
A kid from Glen Ellyn, Illinois giving the Cubs a December Championship. All the power to my brother-in-mitts, but let’s, uh, wait ’til next year.
As a Cubs fan, I hype up a lot of stuff, we’re used to rolling in sh!t over all our small victories, but let’s settle down and wait to prove naysayers wrong during the baseball season, please and thank you!!!
If the Cubs ever win it all it would be extremely embarrassing to see riots over uncontrollable drunk fans. There were issues in Chicago when the Bulls won, and I have been down in wriggled a few times for Hawks clinching cup final games and seen a little chaos. However cub fans are the second largest group in all Chicago below da bears. If that fan base wins it all I swear it will be a sh*t show. The worst thing cub fans can do is embarrass themselves in such a way that the whole nation will look at them even worse than they are already perceived by many. Stay classy.
In general, I agree with you. Opt outs are a benefit to the team. With the cubs system, there is a ton of of depth, however. So Heyward leaving in 3 years may not be as big of a deal as it would seem.
It will probably end up only a 3 year deal and the Cubs better hope it is. If it isn’t it’s probably looking pretty ugly. Being a position player it’s a fine gamble as long as the contract isn’t structured crazily with regards to how much is locked in before/after the opt-outs.
Cubs capture all of the risk of downside on this deal and Heyward shares the upside with the Cubs. That said, the opt outs do ensure Jason keeps healthy and motivated. The risk of this hamstringing the Cubs after 2019 is as minimal as or smaller than any other 6+ year contract would be.
I think he’s is being over paid if he is there for the entire contract. However, that is where the market is at so I guess it’s difficult to say that when multiple teams are willing to pay him something close. I much rather have had Price, and think the Cubs would have been better off. I’m just glad they r going to be even better than last year. My final comment is that ALL baseball players are over paid, and I hate that I can’t afford to bring the family to a game any more. But again, if others are willing to pay it, you can’t say it’s over priced.
While heyward isnt mike trout, he is still the best defensive right fielder in the game right now and gets on base a lot. While defense doesnt age well, on base skills is the skill that ages best and why he could still be a valuable asset for years. Now in the end will the contract be worth it (assuming he doesnt opt out)? Probably no bcuz he will be making north of 22.5 mil a year and when his defense goes so does most of his value. He will provide positive value for the entire contract, just not 22.5 mil worth of value for the last 2-3 yrs
Whence the drama about years 6-8? Those are his age 31-33 seasons. Ellsbury’s 7/151 contract *started* with those years, those were supposed to be the money years. And sure that contract stunk but it didn’t get this level of vitriol/attention despite being junk on top of presumably even worse junk (age 34-37) in your and others’ estimation.
2/3 of his value is from his bat, ob skills, baserunning. So no, he does not get MOST of his value from defense.
Insane that people are washing over the FACT that Heyward is elite in every facet of the game except hitting for power, which a lot of good hitters don’t develop until their late 20s, which is when he will be on the Cubs.
I wouldn’t say he’s elite in every facet. I think that can only really be given to Trout. He’s good to very good at just about everything (.146 iso isn’t where you’d like it) and that adds up.
I said every facet but power. And yes, he definitely is elite in everything except power. You are allowed to call non-Trout players elite, elite does not mean “one”.
So let me get this strait….a career .268 hitter without power who has never been to an all star game is “elite?”
39th in wRC+, 41st in bb%, 37th in obp, 69th in slg, 5th BsR, 29th in off, 6th in Def, 11th in fWAR.
He has some elite aspects of his game, but he is not elite in “everything except power”. Unless 39th, 41st, 37th, 69th (depending on what you count as power, slg can be driven by speed), and 29th count as elite…
I was originally conflicted as to whether Heyward deserves this payday. It was because I really have no perspective. So I decided to look at the players that are in or around Heywards financial bracket.
Ryan Howard
Albert Pujols
Robinson Cano
Mark Texiero
Joe Mauer
Hanley Ramirez
Josey Reyes
Which of these players are as productive as Heyward this year or maybe even the last years combined? If you compare Heyward to this list of players, his financial peers, Heyward suddenly looks a lot better
time will tell. he hasn’t put up numbers like any of those mentioned in their pre- free agent seasons
thats a silly analogy.
Heyward better look better right now compared to all those old goats.
The market for each of those players were/are different. Pujols, Texeira and Howard were all guys who could produce RBIs with Pujols and Tex playing good
defense at first.
Cano and Mauer played positions that are harder to find a really good player. In Cano’s case, there aren’t many, if any, SS/2B players who hit .300 with 25-30 HRs and had 90 RBIs (outside of Tulo, I can’t think if there are any other players who put up similar numbers around the same time). Big production from one of those two spots usually is rewarded with a nice contract (Jedd Gyorko would be a good example). In Mauer’s case, he was coming off an MVP season, with three batting titles already in hand, three All-Star selections and two Gold Gloves and it helped he was a literal homegrown player (born and raised in Minny). I’m also pretty sure he hadn’t suffered any of the concussions that have ruined his career before signing that extension.
So of all those players you listed, Heyward has the worst offensive numbers of anyone on that list (although I don’t mean that in bad way, just plain and simple has the worst offensive numbers). Cubs are buying into (1) his potential and that he can still grow into the player he was expected to (2) his already established talents (defense and baserunning) and (3) he can be a major piece (although maybe not the final piece) to the puzzle.
A question to ask might be of all those contracts you listed, which teams take a do over if they could.
Lets all be thankful for the long term sanity of this site’s reader that Ben Zobrist came on in his late rather than early 20s and signed away FA years in his first extension. Because a guy who topped 20 homers once and never hit .300 would have signed for around $200m too. (And would’ve been a huge bargain. )
…………………… .G……..H….2B..3B..HR…RBI..SB….AVG…OBP
Jason Heyward – 154 – 160 – 33 – 4 – 13 – 60 – 23 – .293 – .359
Ender Inciarte – 132 – 159 – 27 – 5 – 6 – 45 – 21 – .303 – .338
Heyward will reportedly make around $23 million/ year for the next 8 years. Inciarte made $513 thousand last season. And Inciarte is arguably the better fielder as well.
Ballpark factors are a huge part of this. There is a reason Arizona basically plays in Coors Field Light..
conveniant to leave out slugging and the fact he hit in arizona(hitters park). add in the fact that his b.a and whole line were due to an overinflated babip and you are looking at a below league average hitter.
And Heyward is just above average. At 23mil a year.
He’s 15-20% above average depending on which measure you use. Saying he’s just above average is like saying some who hit .350 hit “just over” .300. Not, it’s well over. Similarly, he is well above average offensively.
the last 3 years he has a higher wRC+ than yoenis cespedes, manny machado, adam jones, anthony rendon, jose altuve. add in the fact that hes elite defensively, and plus plus as a baserunner, and by all accounts a good clubhouse guy. cespedes will get roughly 20 mil a year, is 3 mil more a year for a prime heyward not worth it over a soon to be declining cespedes? mike trout was pre arb 3 years ago, by your logic why wouldnt they just go sign him?
So you will take inciarte over heyward if each were being paid the same amount of money?
We can’t really know how this looks until the payout structure is known. Because of the 2 opt-outs this can look really great to pretty mediocre depending how much money he gets before the opt-outs.
getting a top 10 player on a 3 year deal while he is in his prime is invaluable and can not be overpayed.
Right, but there could be scenarios it doesn’t look as good. Combine with the potential for injuries to cause all the downside that you don’t get to see more of the upside. Less risky with this deal than the Price deal for sure.
If he doesn’t perform up to what he’s being paid, then it’s an overpay. That can happen whether a player is 27 or 37.
if he is a 3 war player he is worth 23 mil a year at the current market prices. so unless he literally falls off a cliff he will perform to at least 3 war per year for 3 years.
I’ll be honest, I’m a neutral party and I voted to see the results. I voted “yes” (which was on top) and then it showed me the results and “no” was on top, so I thought I might have voted “no.” So I voted again. In doing so, I noticed that the number of votes jumped quite a bit in that very short time. So I immediately voted again (this time “no” to keep things fair) and there were 9 more total votes. I immediately (within 5 seconds) voted “no” again and there were 7 more total votes.
In conclusion, I think the vote counter is rigged. No way this many baseball addicts (the first step is admitting it) are awake right now voting if the Heyward deal is good or bad. Maybe there are 50 other people like me who keep voting to see how much the total increases every second, but I doubt it. This is no democracy.
It’s not even midnight on the west coast, you’re acting like it’s 4 am everywhere and no one should be awake. This site is in like the top 1,500 for traffic in the U.S, I think you underestimate how many people read it. Plus, like you said, people could be voting multiple times (like yourself).
Easy enough, Stormie. You win. Clearly I underestimate the website, but I guess that’s because it seems the comments come from the same 75 people over and over. It’s 2:29 where I am. 3:29 to the east of me and 12:29 to the west. I just figured most people who made it the “top 1,500” have better things to do on their Friday night/Sat morning. At least now I feel better about staying in.
But if it stays at 55% to 44% for 24 hours then I’ll never vote again in my life.
For the record, now that voting has slowed down I can see that it’s not counting multiple votes. I really did underestimate the popularity of the website. My faith in the voting system is restored. Goodnight to all and to all a good night
Heyward’s young and a stellar outfielder with gambling that price on the bat. He could flop or fourish under the circumstance, as we’ve seen many flop of big price tags despite productive indications leading up to it. It’s the risk with any big contract of being on the hook in either case.
Cubs are going to be tough versus righties – they need pitching?
i imagine they want to have 4 pitchers capable of going 7 shutout in the playoffs. i see hendricks and mckinney for inciarte, and then soler+ package for corrasco.
At age 25 he’s basically Dave Winfield with better defense.
More like George Hendrick
Drew….that’s one of the best comparisons I’ve see regarding Heyward. Had Dave been a FA at age 26, he too would have been paid high for his potential, not for his actual production.. On the other hand, ARod got a record contract because he actually had produced great numbers when he became a FA at age 25.
Awesome comparison. Will be intersting to see how that plays out.
He’s worth it because that’s what the market was saying he’s worth. This wasn’t one bidder doing crazy things-or a really bad extension like, say, Ryan Howard. Out there in FA land, the bidding was there. Heyward is undeniably a very valuable player. Value is relative as well as empiric. Top closers get paid $200K per inning. Greinke and Price will get $1M a start. The money is there, and Heyward is talented.
you’re worth whatever someone is willing to give you. The Cubs and several other teams thought Heyward’s potential was worth the big money. We’ll see if he delivers. Winfield did.
Agreed. I respect the front offices of the Nats, Cards and the Cubs. The Cubs have a lot of power already. They don’t need power. They need contact hitters. Guys that get on base. Speed on the bases. Good outfield defense. They are getting that from Heyward. He seems to fit their team. And they were willing to pay for it.
After watching the last 5 years of older untradeable and overpaid players in Philadelphia I would be concerned about the 200 million payroll teams. If it works great. If not it could be another 100 years for the Cubbies.
RF Defense is being valued too much.
If Heyward plays center, he will average to below average. Because he plays right, he is one of the best, but that is only because lots of “fewer tool” guys play there. He looks great relative to “offense first” corner outfielders.
In the end there are not that many make or break plays in RF defensively that are worth the well below average HRs and RBIs. WAR needs to be adjusted to account for this.
AR-BEE-EEEEYZ
The problem with this is that there are statistics to show how players perform when moving from right field to center and there is generally a 10 run adjustment. Heyward was a plus 20 run defender in right which equates to plus 10 in center. You can quibble and claim he won’t do as well and it’s certainly possible but I don’t see much evidence to support your claim he will be below average in center.
It doesn’t matter much. No the the Cubs and cards thought he was worth it. STL offered 200 million, if the cards signed him you’d hear STL fans talking how it’s a great deal and Cubs fans ripping on them. More if my team signed him it’s a great deal and if not I need to rip on the contact
Best part of the contract is the opt out, as a Red Sox fan that’s my favorite thing about the David Price contract
There is a significantly higher chance of Heyward opting out than there is price.
He was paid what he was worth. Three teams were willing to pay him this much, including well respected teams such as the Cards and Cubs.
Everyone agrees that he is the best defensive COF in baseball and has good speed. He also is an above average bat with good on base skills, low strike out totals and average power. The big point of contention is his lack of elite power. That lack of power is shown in this contract. If he had consistent 25-30 HR power, combined with his other skills and age his FA contract would have been in the $300-350mm range. Earlier this year, we saw Stanton have his FA years valued at 10/$295mm in an extension. Stanton has elite power, but is worse than Heyward in all other facets of the game. Trout was paid 3/$100mm for three of his FA years in an extension and most feel he gave them a discount. These are extensions and not the free market.
The good thing about Heyward is his youth still leaves a chance for more upside with his power. As early as next year, this contract could look like a bargain.
People pay to see HR’s, not defense. Stanton & Trout are the two elite young players in the game today along with Harper. As Ralph Kiner said: “HR hitters drive Cadillacs. Singles hitters drive Fords.”
People pay to see winning teams. Heyward helps teams win.
Trout is actually really good at defense…and running….and hitting, that’s why he’s the best player in baseball. Players who do everything rather well are very valuable for a team.
Some teams may put an emphasis on entertainment but it’s hard to fault a team for putting its sole focus on winning baseball games as the Cubs are doing. In fact, I’d say it’s pretty hard to defend any other way of doing things, but as a Cubs fan I’m glad there are a bunch of other teams doing it the wrong way.
Stanton received a $325MM contract without being a free agent with an opt-out. Just wait until Harper is a free agent. I’m not expecting anything less than a $400MM deal if he’s anything like he’s been (and not the level he was in 2015).
Power is no longer as valuable as it once was. Look at how pathetic Andrelton Simmons is on offense as a whole let alone lack of power. Yet he is getting an AAV of about $11M the next 5 years pretty much solely because of his defensive ability. Due to steroids playing a smaller role in MLB and the advent of sabermetrics in MLB power is no longer this highly desired quality, and as a result of both events the number of power hitters has diminished a ton the last 5 or so years. In 2015, 30 players had 30 or more HRs. in 2000 that number was 47. In 2015 there were 9 players with 40+ HRs. In 2000…… 16. You’d think due to the diminished number of power hitters they’d be getting paid more than non-power players. Not the case. Look at Chris Davis for an example. Guy is a 40 HR hitter yet no one is exactly itching to get him signed ASAP. That’s because he Ks like 200+ times a year and hits only .250-.260 hitter. I think the relatively quiet market on him is because teams are afraid they’ll be getting an Adam Dunn version 2.0.
Pre-2011 season the 31 year old Dunn signed a pretty small in today’s standards contract for 4 years and $56M for an AAV of $14M. Pre-White Sox he was a .250/.381/.521/.902 OPS player who averaged 145 games played and 35 HRs those 10 seasons with Cinci, Arizona, and the Nats.
After that deal Dunn became a .202/.321/.407/.728 OPS player who average 138 games played per year and 27 HRs.
Dunn in his first 10 years was way better than what Davis has done in his first 8. Just 5 years ago a similar, yet better player in Dunn was worth $14M. Davis is expected to get at LEAST $20M per and some say $25M per season is likely. MLBTR expects $24M AAV with a 6 year $144M deal for Davis……. that is going to be an over pay. I’m calling it already. I predict a similar collapse Dunn had in his 30s. For Davis though that collapse would just be him reverting back to his pre-Baltimore days.
Did you just say power is no longer as valuable as it was, then proceed to show exactly why that statement is incorrect with your Dunn/Davis example?
If you think teams are still clamoring for sole power hitters like Davis you clearly aren’t following the offseason. Heyward had a way bigger market and there has been much more desire from teams to sign him. Now that market is going to focus on Gordon. Then when he signs that market is likely going to focus on Cespedes. Then it will go to Upton. defense, OBP, and speed is desired way more than just a dude who can pop 30-40 HRs but provides mediocre defense, no speed, and maybe a solid OBP since power guys are still walked a ton.
How is my Dunn/Davis comparison showing my statement as being incorrect? 1) Dunn signed for only $14M AAV back in 2010 which is even for that time pretty low, so signs of teams not really valuing sole power hitters back then is already showing. 2) Dunn blew after he signed that contract…. how is me comparing Davis to him and hinting that I feel Davis is the same gamble contradicting me saying power is not as valuable. The comparison is to show why sole power hitters are an iffy market. Another example is Albert Pujols. Yeah he hit 40 HRs this year….. for the first time in seemingly forever. But his BA was pathetic and in the .240s and his OBP was around something dismal like .300. Once Adam Dunn and Albert Pujols turned 30 they both went to s***. Two power hitters completely not worth the contracts they signed. And that’s just 2 examples.
If teams are going to spend crazy money on players they are likely going to spend it on a player who is an all around good player. 15-20 HR guys with 20+ speed who get on base at a solid clip and can hit at least .270 AND play decent defense are viewed as being WAAAAY more valuable than a dude who just hits 35-40 HRs…… like Davis. Davis has no speed. Hits for a mediocre-bad average. Is poor defensively. But he hits HRs and gets on base…… as long as his BA is over .200…… which is still not a guarantee, see his 2014 performance.
Giancarlo Stanton, despite how awesome he is when he plays, isn’t living up to his contract either IMO and he isn’t even making crazy money yet. He’s NEVER healthy. He’s another guy I see falling flat on his face in about 5-6 years when he still has about 6-7 years left on it and will be an AAV player of about $30M. Over the course of recent history sole power hitters have shown that they are not worth it in the long run. Ryan Howard is another guy who just popped into my head. The list is long.
SS’s and catchers offensive nearly always takes back seat to their defensive ability. ARod was of course an incredible exception to that rule with his power, speed AND gold glove ability. Pudge Rodriguez was another. But they are rare so pointing out Simmons lousy offense is not relevant. Power is ALWAYS valuable. Ralph Kiner once said HR hitters drive Cadillacs and singles hitters drive Fords. Obviously, they can all afford expensive cars now but the point is HR hitters get more: They put fannies in the seats. Pujols, Trout, Fielder, Cabrera, Stanton and Hamilton are prime examples. Yes….the deals for Pujols, Fielder and Hamilton look pretty bad now and the deal for Cabrera will stink in years to come. As an STL fan, I would rather the Cards NOT sign Chris Davis because I agree with you about him being a Dunn clone just as I didn’t want to see the Cards sign Heyward or Pujols a few years ago. Why strap yourself with a terrible contract you wind up having to pay to get rid of, like Fielder & Hamilton?
Well, I liked what Rod Allen was speaking about on MLB Network in regards to improving his swing. I think if Heyward was to stand up taller and slow down a bit, he could access that 30 home run power potential. If that was to be true, then yes, I believe he is worth it in being a athletic, power hitting, defensive wizard outfielder. Yet then again, I don’t know as if he will fare well in center. I like the idea of moving Soler for a true defensive center fielder and moving Heyward to right. An addition like Inciarte would be incredible.
This is an incredibly low risk contract. Comparing the deal to that of Crawford and Ellsbury is foolish because Crawford was three years older and Ellsbury was four years older (and carried a much more concerning injury history).
The only issue to debate is the validity of defensive metrics. I think given the technology in use now which can precisely measure range and reaction time that debate has been pretty well settled. This value is quantifiable and as the Royals have shown with an emphasis on defense can pay dividends.
There are performance risks for every professional athlete. But the risk of injury for someone just turned 26 is significantly lower than that of someone three or four years older. I think in a couple years time it will be clear that the Cardinals in particular were drastically off in their valuation of Heyward and made a big mistake in letting him get away to Chicago.
MLBTR staff: you could make this poll about literally any free agent and 90% of them would turn out the same way.
Also, MLB minimum wage is more than what the President makes, so literally every single player is overpaid because playing a game children play < running the most powerful country on Earth.
Also, every single owner in MLB makes more money than they did the year before every single year, but fans absolutely hate seeing those profits trickling down to player salaries for some reason. What is that reason? I do not know.
My point is we as fans should really stop caring about player salaries. Its a fact that Heyward is good at baseball because he has a high fWAR score every year, he's also remarkably young and has not entered his prime yet. He got his money, which in 5 years will probably be considered a bargain anyway. The Cubs stacked their team to a crazy degree this offseason and the main thing we as fans on this site should be talking about is what are they going to do with Baez, Soler or Schwarber, as their signing of Zobrist means he will be playing 2B, RF or LF everyday, as they all are everyday players.
Unless there is another trade Zobrist will be at 2b and Schwarber and Soler will be in left and right. Baez will spot start and be a late inning defensive substitution in the infield.
I think we are all getting caught up in what Heyward is or could be. What do the Cubs need him to be? Cubs need him to be one of the top fielders in the game and get on base, set the table, steal some bases, and hopefully cross home plate 100 times. Do the Cubs need him to hit over 20 hr? No. Do the Cubs need him to have 100 RBIS? No. Can Heyward produce what everyone excpects him to produce? Maybe. Hitting ahead of Rizzo Bryant Shwarber Zobrist, and Soler, he should be able to produce what the Cubs NEED. Can Cubs afford to pay him that? YES.
I think the idea is, the Cubs want the World Series now. Heyward and Zobrist probably get you closer than Fowler and Castro. In 3 years Heyward goes for even bigger money, and the Cubs go with a prospect as a replacement, ideally with a World Series title in the rear view mirror!
The cards and nats offered more and he was ranked #1 free agent. Choosing to not sign fowler our option was sczur or alcantara or 23 mil and heyward. I’ll take heyward. We weakened the cards and improved our team. That has some value along with him not expected to hit like Aaron we have Schwarber Bryant Rizzo soler Baez to do that. Hit like Grace and field like mays works for me. Nice voting . 39% yes is from elated cub fans who know we got a great player. 61% no votes from fans of teams that wished they had him. What is your ring finger size heyward getting you fitted for your World Series ring(s) . Go Cubs!!
Lets do some Player A/Player B.
All figures are 162 game averages per Baseball Reference
Player A: .268 BA, 19 HR, 68 RBI, .353 OBP, .784 OPS, 31 2B 133 K 9 GIDP
Player B: .267 BA, 11 HR, 50 RBI, .363 OBP, .781 OPS, 29 2B, 147 K, 6 GIDP.
One of these is Jason Heyward. The other?
Dexter Fowler.
I take nothing away from the obvious defensive upgrade, but you probably coulda gotten Lagares from the Mets for a heckuva lot cheaper and gotten a natural CF in return.
For a bunch of people in this sites comments section who CONSTANTLY uses WAR and WAR alone to support their arguments for or against a certain player (which I think is crazy because WAR is such a joke of a stat) I can’t believe the outcome of this poll and the opinions shared about Heyward in the comments section. To use the WAR argument most of you love how can you crap on a guy who’s been just about a 6 WAR player in 4 of his 6 seasons. The 2 seasons he wasn’t a 6 WAR player was his sophomore slump season and an injury shortened season in 2013 when he played only 102 games….. was still a 3.7 WAR player. So I don’t get how a portion of people who LOVE their WAR can not say this is a good deal. Cubs, barring a horrific Heyward injury, likely only have him for 3 years for his age 26, 27, and 28 seasons…… very strong possibility those could very well be his best years of his career. Moving to HR friendly Wrigley makes a very strong likelihood that Heyward returns to being a 20+ HR threat. And quite honestly I think a lot of you would be singing praises about Heyward if he was a 20 HR player, consistently, over his first 6 years. Because how many .270, .355, .785OPS, 20 HR, 20 SB, and gold glove caliber players do you know?
Also, for those saying he was “useless” for the Cards down the stretch because he only hit 4 HRs the last 3 months. True…… but he also hit .318 BA, .397 OBP, and .866 OPS the second half last year with only those 4 HRs. What a bum……
Heyward has been a waaaay better player during the second half of the season than the first half actually. While he hits more HRs in the first half his averages are .252/.337/.419/.755 while his second half slash line is .287/.373/.447/.820 but he hits fewer HRs.
And then there is the matter the nay sayers are neglecting…. the fact his is one of the best defensive OFers in the game. I remember people acting like Andrelton Simmons was worth more than what the Braves got for him a month or so ago. He is absolutely pitiful on offense but is a stellar fielder. He gets paid just shy of $11M AAV over the next 5 years….. as a .256/.304/.362/.666 OPS player with no power and no speed. Heyward’s contract is almost certainly backloaded and over the next 3 years will likely get an AAV of about $18M-20M. So Simmons the next 5 years at just shy of $54M…… or Heyward the next 3 years at $54-60M. Who’s overpaid again? Not only is Simmons overpaid monetarily, IMO, but he also cost the Angels their 2 best pitching prospects……. for a guy who only gets on base 30% of the time and has a pitiful, bench-player-like .666 OPS. Heyward costs the Cubs 0 prospects and only costs them $60M, tops for the next 3 years. Three years of which are generally the best years in a player’s career or at the very least the start of his very best years, his age 26, 27, and 28 seasons. Heyward almost certainly opts out after 3 or 4 years. This is a major steal for the Cubs. Again, he’ll likely become a 20-20 player playing in the friendly confines of Wrigley. Wrigley, while known as a neutral park for both hitters and pitchers, it is still a HR friendly place to play for hitters. Wrigley ranked 3rd last year in HRs allowed. 2014 it ranked toward the middle-bottom third. 2013 ranked 11th. Bottom line, Wrigley almost always ranks better for HRs than either Turner Field or Busch Stadium annually.
Once Alex Gordon signs his contract I think people will view this Heyward deal as a sure fire STEAL. Gordon has similar stats to that of Heyward both offensively and defensively…… minus the 20+ SB speed. But Gordon is also entering his age 32 season opposed to Heyward entering his age 26 season. Yet I bet Gordon gets $17-$20M AAV over a 5 year deal. So Heyward who will likely only be with the Cubs for 3, max 4 years at $80M MAX, Gordon will be anchored to his next team for 5 years (maybe more) for $100+ million.
I agree with a lot of what you say but the contract easily could (and should) be frontloaded, I think there’s a chance Heyward makes in the neighborhood of 25 million a year for the first few years.
Contracts are pretty much NEVER front loaded. I can’t recall a single instance where a contract has been front loaded. Sometimes you’ll see a deal start off with low AAVs the first couple of years, then skyrocket the AAVs the middle part of the contract, and then see the AAV lower the last few years of the contract. But still, the AAV the first couple of years is generally lower than the entire contract’s AAV. If you can provide an example of any contract being front loaded I’d be more open minded to the possibility. But I’d say 99% of contracts are backloaded. Like look at Albert Pujols. He was entering his age 32 season when he signed his TEN year $240M deal with the Angels. You’d think they MUST be front loading that deal, right? I mean why pay him more when he’s 40+ years old. Yet Pujols over the first 3 years of that deal was paid 12, 16, and 23 million respectively in his 32, 33, 34 seasons. The last 3 years, when Pujols is 39, 40, and 41 years old the Angels will pay him $28, 29, and 30 million. So while the AAV over Pujols’ entire contract is $24M, over the first 3 years the AAV was a “paltry” $17M as opposed to an AAV of $29M when he’s in his late 30s and early 40s.
Does it make sense? Not really IMO and most fans opinion. It’s just the way contracts are always constructed. And this isn’t just baseball either. Every sport pays players more money for past performance than current or potential current performance. It’s likely because the insane way player salaries are rising on an annual basis, the thought is that more money later in the contract might not be so “crazy” by the time that year rolls around. I mean Pujols is making $25M this year. While that may seem like way too much, it is about what is expected Chris Davis will get this offseason. Even taking into account the huge decline Pujols has had since joining the Angels, I’d still say he is a better player than Chris Davis yet they both could be making the same amount of money.
Looks like a lot of Cardinal fans have too much time on their hands.
Fangraphs did an evaluation of what Heyward is worth compared to similar players at his age with his skill. It’s pretty much in the right range. The bottom line is we know at least 4 teams thought he was worth it. Time will tell.