We expected a lot of competition at the top of the free agent market for starting pitching, and the results have not disappointed. There was plenty of discussion heading into the winter as to which top arm would make the most sensible investment, and now we can begin to assess that with the knowledge of the deals they’ve signed.
While all of the top four starters have landed guarantees of over $100MM, as expected, there have been some creative contract structures that make it impossible to assess the deals simply by comparing total value. Let’s take a closer look (in order of lowest to highest guarantee; links to posts on signings):
Jordan Zimmermann, Tigers: Five years, $110MM. Full no-trade for three seasons, then 19-team no-trade list for final two seasons. Backloaded annual salary structure. Guarantees age 30 through 34 campaigns.
Johnny Cueto, Giants: Six years, $130MM. Opt-out rights after two seasons; also includes club option if opt-out isn’t triggered. Slightly front-loaded structure in which $46MM of guarantee is payable in first two years. Guarantees age 30 through 35 campaigns.
Zack Greinke, Diamondbacks: Six years, $206.5MM. Significant deferrals ($60MM total) reduce present value to around $194MM. Limited no-trade protection. Guarantees age 32 through 37 campaigns.
David Price, Red Sox: Seven years, $217MM. Opt-out rights after three seasons. Guarantees age 30 through 36 campaigns.
The Zimmermann contract looks relatively affordable, but Detroit won’t easily be able to trade him. Cueto could give San Francisco two good seasons at a good price and then leave, but is the risk worth it? The D-backs get one of the best pitchers in the game in Greinke, but it took a huge AAV to buy up his mid thirties. And then there’s Price, who is an in-prime ace but required Boston to promise the highest-ever total guarantee for a pitcher.
So, which of these contracts looks like the best bet to work out?
Best bet for whom? I’d say Price got the best dollar deal and opt out clause, Cueto got $10M more than he’s worth. Zimmermann will be the best money spent. And Greinke will ruin the Dodgers and the Giants playoff hopes……its all a matter of perspective.
Well right above the poll it says which looks like the best bet to work out.
1) Price
2) Cueto
3) Zimmermann
4) Greinke
Greinke has a chance to be a disaster, considering he’s going to be taking up 30-40 percent of their payroll. He’s also moving from Dodger Stadium to Chase.
He’s also leaving Grandal which had to be a boost for him. Not sure how good Arizona’s catchers are at framing though.
I havent heard good things about castillos defense as he’s mostly considered a offense first player
The Cubs place a heavy emphasis on pitch framing… They gave away Castillo for nothing and reportedly made a strong push to bring in Grandal last year as a replacement. Not that their opinion is the ‘end all, be all’ but I’ll take their baseball opinion over most.
Ummm….Grandal rates as one of the best pitch framers in baseball….
Yeah that’s what I meant. Maybe I didn’t phrase it well. I meant that Grandal probably helped Greinke and I’m not sure if Arizona’s catchers will because I don’t know them.
More than 30-40% this year. Isn’t he playing for 31 mil PLUS a $18 mil signing bonus? That’s almost 50 million this year alone!
Zimmermann
Assuming Price opts out, which he seems destined to do barring an injury, the Sox will have actually had him for 3/90, which will hopefully look like an amazing investment.
Toss up between Zimmermann and Cueto in terms of value for the money, I’m going with Zimmermann. I don’t think we’ve seen the last of Cueto’s elbow problems, and if he does require Tommy John in the next year or two, the opt out becomes irrelevant and the Giants are stuck with an expensive, rehabbing pitcher.
I agree – cueto might turn out to be a great deal or might turn out to be a bust – zimermann unless disaster strikes is a pretty good bet to trudge along as reliable reliable reliable
Isn’t there a team option after 1-2 seasons too?
For the quality you’re going to get at the ages the pitchers will be at, I think Greinke’s deal is the best. Just because it has a massive AAV doesn’t make it a bad deal. He’s worth every penny, in my opinion. So it got my vote. Had Zimmerman’s deal been front loaded, not backloaded, I’d have voted for it. He’s the most likely to pitch mediocre, in my opinion. Had they paid the likely elite seasons at the higher rate, I’d have gone with him. A frontloaded deal makes him easier to deal once the NTC turns from full to limited also.
Grienke is not as good as last season would indicate
Price was the best deal i heard while they walked him through fenway he was asking about the future prospects and when they would be ready he seems really ready to commit to the red sox and win a championship
Where is the “None of the above” option? };-p
Price will be the best he set himself up to win a championship
If only he was able to win in the postseason though. He has 2 wins, but both are in relief.
Who will probably have the overall best numbers during their contract: Price. Possibly me being a little biased here but over the course of 7 years I think he’ll put up the best numbers of all 4.
Who will be the best “bang for the buck”: Zimmerman or Cueto. Basically it comes down to the fact that they’re cheaper and there’s no way Price or Grienke put up almost double the return.
Which team will be the happiest?: Which ever makes it to the WS.
The sox will make it to the WS because erod will make a great number 2 with bucholtz at 3 and kelley porcello at 4 and 5 thats great plus if hanley can transition to first and gets the bat going thats a recipe for success
The last bit seems like a lot of what ifs. The Back end of the rotation had horrible numbers last year. And expecting a playing like Ramirez who had no spot last season to all the sudden find his stroke is expecting a lot. Price will be an anchor, for sure. But you have to hope the rest of the rotation falls in line. Or else you’re left with no confidence when the last two come around.
Porcello and Kelly both had good second-halfs last year, now that everyone knows who the ace is hopefully the rest of them fall in line, as a Sox fan I am guardedly optimistic about the staff this year
The Cueto and Zimmermann deals seem to be set up to where a down year would be painful but not the end of the world so I think they have less chance of being looked at as failures. A single down year/injury and the Price/Greinke deals are disasters. I would go with Zimmernann over Cueto simply because he has less MLB innings.
I don’t know how this is even close. I bet if you polled GM’s what deal they would choose and I think they almost all go with Zimmerman. I see a slight argument for Price because he is a bonafide ace but still much rather have the Zimmerman deal as a fan or a GM. Cueto deal is terrible with an opt out after two years, how in the world is that a good thing for the team. Greinke is a great pitcher but 200 million plus for a 35 year old, yikes. Zimmerman left money on the table imo.
Not really disagreeing with you, but Grienke only turned 32 two months ago.
How on earth is the Cueto opt out a bad thing? If he opts out, it’ll mean that he pitched well and wasn’t injured. That’s great news for SF, they got 2 extremely productive (young) years out of him and only spent 46 M$. They can then turn around and sign another younger FA SP (or trade for one / or develop one) in two years.
Had Cueto had zero injury risk, he’d easily be worth 150 M$ per.
I’m embarrassed as a baseball fan by the results of this poll. Greinke 4th??!? lmao
I wouldn’t have gone anywhere near Zimmermann personally, and Greinke was crazy overpaid, though at least he has an opt out.
Cueto or Price. Both have decent contracts. I think Cueto will perform the best for the money but I’d probably take Price.
The Tigers just signed Zimmermann. Why would they want to trade him, is my first question. Second, why would he be anymore difficult to trade then these other contracts? None will be tradeable if they don’t perform up to expectations, or get injured.
Here’s my question: Is Adam Wainwright far and away the best veteran pitcher to sign for less than $100M? His contract extension looks like an absolute bargain these days.
I voted Price solely b/c he’ll presumably opt out after 3 years, getting Boston out of paying $30+M/yr for those last years
Generally not a fan of giving any 30+ year old pitcher massive contracts like that though, so I would’ve gone with a “none of the above” option if it were offered