As we approach the New Year, five of MLBTR’s top ten free agents remain on the board. Alex Gordon, Justin Upton, Chris Davis, Yoenis Cespedes, and Ian Desmond all have widespread interest, of course, but they each seem intent on waiting for the right offer to materialize. Beyond that, other notables such as Wei-Yin Chen, Kenta Maeda, Dexter Fowler, Scott Kazmir, and Ian Kennedy are still without a ball club.
Last week, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk asked readers to predict who will be the first to come off of the board in each group. In the “A” squad, nearly 39% of you predicted that Gordon would be the first to sign. However, this poll was conducted before Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reported that the incumbent Royals have been told by the outfielder’s camp that they have “no chance” to re-sign their franchise cornerstone as things currently stand. Gordon’s camp is seeking a contract that will pay him upwards of $20MM per season, and Kansas City has reportedly only offered $12-$13MM per year over four years.
In the next group of free agents, MLBTR readers ID’d Kazmir as the player most likely to sign first. Kazmir, unlike other players in that tier, does not have a qualifying offer attached. Of the players in that poll, less than 4% said that Kennedy would be the next to sign with a team. Things have been oddly quiet for Kennedy who decided to reject the qualifying offer from the Padres back in November. The Marlins are known to have interest in him, but he is likely too expensive for them, and we haven’t heard much in the way of specific teams talking with his camp. Maeda took nearly 24% of the vote – an indication that roughly one-quarter of MLBTR readers expect the free agent market to progress pretty slowly since the deadline for him to sign is on January 8th at 5pm ET/4pm CT.
When looking at the ten best free agents left, who do you think will be the last to land with a team? (MLBTR app users can weigh in here)
Might want to fix this: “Kazmir, like most of the players in that tier, come with a qualifying offer attached, which is likely hampering his market somewhat.”
Kazmir does not come with a qualifying offer.
Chris Davis will be such a busy. I feel sorry for whoever thinks he will be a good investment after 2 years
My vote is Chen because of how much he wants. But it’ll probably be kennedy
Davis is the biggest risk, with a high price. Adderall!
So this is the wrong forum, but since there were so many comments I didn’t think I would get a response, but have any of you watched the Al Jazeera documentary? I just watched it and it looks pretty credible. It seems as if they guy Charles Sly who recanted on his remarks regarding Manning, Zimmerman, and Howard is only doing so to save his own behind. It could be wrong, but, after watching it I found it to be very credible.
I think Davis will be the last as Boras doesn’t mind waiting it out. Years back V. Mart went down early in the new year while training. At the time Prince Fielder’s market was looking grim but obviously that changed real fast.
The Boras client(s) will be the winner(s) of the last to sign…
Maeda has to sign by the 9th so it’s defenitely not him.
I thought that is when the posting period expires and the negotiations begin.
You’re right, but my guess is a short courtship. This won’t be a “down the the wire” negotiation.
Teams have to Post and signby the 8th.
Davis should stick with BAL, he was hopeless in TEX and that’s a hitters’ paradise.
Upton – if he has any sense would go to a hitters’ park.
Cespedes – should go to LAD, why I say that, it will be a counter reaction, since they don’t need OF help, and can’t get any SPs; they will do the next best stupid thing. Get the streakiest hitter for $150 mil.
Gordon – Stay in KC; you have a ring, if you stay there, there is a strong possibility of another!
Giants: I am thinking, Span / Austin Jackson / if Evans has cash Fowler. Otherwise from the 3 OF in COL, get Blackmon, yes Coors stats are askew everything, but he has 43 bags, that could be helpful…..
Kennedy strikes me as the Drew/Morales/Santana/Lohse of this year.
Hes a mediocre pitcher who put up mediocre results in the best pitchers park in baseball. No one wants to give up a pick plus give him a 3 year deal.
In my opinion is think it will be Desmond. Had a horrible year, wants big money, and has a Q.O. attached.
And for those who want to point to his career and second half numbers. Despite the fact he has been in a decline. With his age and career numbers will land him a 1 year deal for about 14 mil.
If not Davis, I’ll go way out on a limb and say Cespedes. In less than 2 years he’s been on the A’s, Red Sox, Tigers and Mets. With the exception of my desperate Tigers, it speaks volumes that none of his previous employers are considering him.
Voted desmond. Very well could b kennedy. Honestly dont know why anyone would surrender a draft pick to sign him.
Fowler could be classed there as well. He is a good player but the Q.O. really diminished his value.
Davis is wanting too much money with a limited market. Has only had 2 good seasons. Tough to give someone that much money when he doesn’t have the track record to back it up, plus give up a draft pick.
I’m half expecting one or two of these guys to sign midway through spring training, with the way free agency has been progressing.
The header to this should be “Which Boras client will be the last to sign?”
Chris Davis!
Scott Boras is trying to create a market where there is virtually none at the dollars he is looking for.
How many free spending big market teams need a first baseman?
How many free spending big market teams are out there that don’t have issues with the luxury tax threshold prior to a Davis signing?
This situation is reminiscent of the Boras negotiated 10-year, $252 million contract given to free agent Alex Rodriguez in 2001 by the Texas Rangers. No other team came close to matching the contract as Boras seemingly had the Rangers bidding against themselves. Peter Angelos won’t be as gullible as Tom Hicks was back then. He was smart to withdraw the $150M offer to Davis and will play the waiting game with Boras…or just take the money and sign one of the FA outfielders who actually have a market.
Imo, Davis and Boras will regret not taking that last offer by the Orioles because the few teams that might have an interest in a power hitting 1B won’t be offering anything close to that amount. As a result, Davis seems to be the best bet to sign last among these 10 FA’s.
I voted Kennedy. Boras is ALMOST as smart as all of us are and I really have to think he learned his lesson in the Stephan Drew, Kendrys Morales fiasco. Surely he won’t hold Davis out when he (Boras) stands to make sooooooooo much money when he signs. If he doesn’t sign, Boras is taking a huge gamble on a big payday for himself. Despite the poll results showing Davis as the last to sign, I still think it’ll be Kennedy. He’ll need to sign with a team with a protected pick, I don’t see anyone surrendering their # 1 and giving big $$$ to Kennedy.
Boras might nail it though like he did with Fielder. He waited until well after the New Year, V. Mart went down and the Tigers had an immediate need. Suddenly Prince was needed in the neighborhood of $250M I believe. Or Boras can outplay his hand and cost Davis money like he did Steven Drew.
I went with Kennedy since he’s hardly a front-liner in my eyes and is a Scott Boras Production. Also, if the Orioles were smart, they’d pursue Cespedes, who could shine in Baltimore, and just drop all interest in Davis. It would also save them a bundle.
Kennedy also has some talent and some teams might be looking for him but he won’t be last
It will be Cesepedes 100%
Chris Davis should sign withbaltimore, you went from bust of a prospect to a home run king, stay where you know you can hit
Cespedes should sign back with Detroit and make a monster lineup again with miggy and Martinez, but I agree with (I forget who) above, the Dodgers make a run for him because they like to spend money where they don’t immediately need to
Gordon should stick where he’s been his whole career and got a ring and keep this royals turnaround going instead of being like billy butler who probably ate himself into a coma when the royals won it all last year
Upton needs to be in a small park if he’s ever going to hit 30 home runs again, he’s turned into a doubles guy and hopefully he doesn’t fall apart like his brother (highly unlikely)
Gallardo should go to KC, Kennedy to Baltimore
For the white sox I say Fowler, Span, parra or trade for Dickerson from Colorado for a young power bat, they need outfield help.
Chen should go to Washington and Desmond to San Diego.
I know I’m going to get told why all of this is wrong but it is my opinion on what could help out certain teams and be beneficial to the players so let the hate begin
This is a great prediction but I don’t thing Davis wants to stay in Baltimore and the white sox won’t get Dickerson because the Rockies have a great out field with Blackmon, and Gonzalez and they need Dickerson but him Blackmon and Cargo are all looking for other teams. Over all u had good predictions
I was thinking if Kansas Coty doesn’t get Gordon get the next best thing, Charlie Blackmon, the only reason I said Dickerson is because the Rockies are willing to hear on all outfielders and if the white sox get one, I think they should go for the younger one wth more power. And as for CarGo I can’t figure this one out, honestly I think the Nationals could make a run for him as a third outfielder because I’m not sold on werth anymore and Taylor is still young and I’m not sold on him either so cargo seems like a fit but I doubt that happens
I know some of the last ones won’t be Gordon, Davis, Chen and Cepsenes because they all have so much talent and the Cardinals are looking for outfielders and pitchers and they will definitely sign one of those people.