We’ve heard a wide variety of rumors regarding trade interest and possible proposals for Braves righty Shelby Miller. While it seems that the Braves remain more than willing to move him in the right scenario, the club is nevertheless holding firm on its asking price, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports (Twitter links).
Despite reportedly widespread interest, it appears that no team has stepped up its bid to a sufficiently enticing level in this relatively early stage of the offseason. That makes it increasingly likely that the 25-year-old will open the season in Atlanta, per Crasnick, though obviously there’s ample time remaining to find a match.
One team said to have interest in Miller is the Cubs, with the Braves reportedly intrigued in turn by young outfielder Jorge Soler. But that’s not a perfect fit, Crasnick suggests (links to Twitter), because Atlanta has committed itself to Nick Markakis and Hector Olivera in the corner outfield for the next several seasons. Of course, given Atlanta’s oft-demonstrated penchant for shifting assets to find value and add controllable assets that it believes in, it would still seem plausible that something could be arranged if the affinity for Soler is as strong as has been suggested.
Meanwhile, per the report, Chicago “would prefer” to center a deal around Javier Baez or Starlin Castro. Both are probably capable of playing short, second, or third, making them good potential matches (on paper, at least) with Atlanta’s long-term needs in the infield. Nevertheless, Crasnick says it’s “not an ideal fit from either side,” seemingly suggesting that the Braves aren’t that enticed by those particular young infielders.
Teheran + a pitching prospect like Sims could get Soler!
LOL
Sims value is rising never would happen
Yeah it would. You Braves fans are overvaluing their pitching. I’m looking at all the Braves pitching prospects and none of them really have the stats to back up their hype. Lots of ERAs near or above 4.00….. and a lot of them are still in the lower levels of the minors. ERAs near 4 in the lower levels of the minors?!?! How are these top prospects.
Soler for Miller straight up. And the Braves should be happy with that. Soler alone will provide more offensive production than the Braves current OF of Olivera, Bourne, and Markakis. Those 3 combined for like 94 RBIs and 5 HRs. WEAK!!!
Miller isn’t even close to worth Soler… Stop looking at his ERA, a number. Every other stat he put up last year says he’s on the same level as Kyle Hendricks. Would you trade Soler for Hendricks?
Stop looking at one year!! Every stat of Millers short career puts him in line with Price and ahead of Greinke. Is he equivalent to them?
Lay off the meth…
Yeah really. Plus two, Soler hasn’t even gotten started yet
Oh good, you guys are multiplying now. I’d explain it to you and chicubbie but you guys are blinded by your own opinions. Facts don’t operate in your world
I’m using stats to support my opinion (which happens to be in line with pretty much all MLB’s opinion since everyone is turning down the Braves demands for Miller). Stats are about as “fact” as it gets in baseball. Miller’s FIP is pretty mediocre. His BB and K rates are pretty bad to mediocre. His WHIP is OK at best. It’s not just me saying Miller isn’t worth what Braves fans and apparently the organization thinks he’s worth. Everyone thinks he’s not worth remotely near what they want for Miller. Evidence…. look at all the teams turning down the Braves asinine offers. At the moment Soler for Miller would be fair…. barely. In a few years though odds are the Braves emerge as winners of that trade. Which is why it hasn’t happened. Hope the Cubs steer away from the Braves and go toward the Indians and White Sox and target their young, available, and better starting pitchers.
No you’re not. Its barely December 3rd. Exactly 2 starting pitchers have signed. Ever think THAT might be the reason that teams are rebuffing their demands? Its early, why don’t you wait, then give your opinion on how much you think hes worth.
Miller is worth more than what Cubs fans and others think. Additionally, you don’t speak for everyone.
Learn the economics of baseball then comment. Once the dominoes start to fall then what Miller is/isn’t worth will rear its head. You don’t think hes worth Soler? Ok then the Cubs can go deal with the Indians who wanted Belt AND Panik for Salazar or Carrasco.
You and everyone else undervaluing Miller are looking at 2014 with blinders like no other.
Very true. The talks will heat up once teams see that they’ll be stuck overpaying Gallardo or trading for a good cheap Miller.
Exactly 2, huh? JA Happ is not happy with you.
It was carrassco, not Salazar or Carrasco. I’d give up 2x soler for carrasco before I gave up 1x Soler for Miller.
Thats probably why you’re not a GM
So, look past Miller’s 3.02 ERA All-Star season, must have been a flash-in-the-pan considering he’s finished with a 3.74 ERA in ’14 & a 3.06 ERA in ’13. Let’s look past all that from a former first rd pick for an unproven hitter that has looked lost at times at the plate and in the field in all of the 500 MLB PA he’s had.
Miller’s full-season numbers are better than the first full season Hendricks had. Miller’s pitched in almost twice as many MLB innings as Hendricks. They’re not comparable.
Wait, so you want to use first season numbers, then discount that after having half as many innings to adjust to MLB hitters, Hendricks still performed as well as Miller?
Hendricks is actually pretty good, but he lacks the “stuff” to ever become a #1 or #2. He also doesn’t go very deep into games. So their stats may be similar, but their make up is entirely different. Maybe look at his last 1.5 seasons. Pretty good. I figured such a die hard awesome Cubs fan who seems to know everything about everything would know that.
How are y’all going to consistently say that Miller is being overvalued whenever Soler is the one who was hurt last year and sucked when he wasn’t hurt? He’s still basically an unproven prospect. Is he going to be good? Likely. Has he done anything in The Show for over half a season? No. Would the Cubs be selling low? Possibly but there is no way to know because he has a successful one-half season under is belt. Y’all are the ones overvaluing.
Y’all continue to say “stop looking at Miller’s ERA” but y’all need to stop looking at Soler’s 75-80 raw power (or whatever it is) and get real.
Soler has more years of control and a higher ceiling than Miller. Even most Experts say that Atlanta would probably have to sweeten the deal a little. Miller is the bigger risk of the 2.
A prospect is a prospect is a prospect. I’m not arguing who has a higher ceiling. If everyone hit their ceiling (or even 50% of their ceiling) the talent all over the field would be much higher than it is now. However, top-100 prospects have about a 50% bust rate.
Miller has done it for 3 years now, so in terms of “performance risk” he’s actually the lesser risk. He has a much larger sample size. In terms of injury risk, then yes any pitcher is a bigger risk.
He has not “done it” for 3 years. He had great 2013. A very mediocre 2014, and just a solid, but questionable 2015. If he’s “done it” he’s done it as a #3 quality SP. Not this top end guy the Braves and their fans are trying to sell him as. Once you look away from his ERA, his FIP, WHIP, BB/9IP, K/9IP and pretty much every other telling stat points to him being a pretty average pitcher…. maybe worse. A 3.82 FIP is hardly anything to brag about, same with his 3+BB/9IP rate and 7K/9IP rate…. and his 1.24 WHIP is similar to that of Matt Garza. Matt Garza is actually a pretty solid comparison IMO of what Miller is. Other than Garza’s career ERA all his other stats are pretty much identical to Miller’s. THAT is why no one is considering him as a bonafide #1 or even #2 quality pitcher. He’s a #3 in everyone’s eyes but the Braves and their fans.
If that last statement you made were true, then why is Shelby Miller drawing so much trade interest? The FA market is practically littered with #3 (or second tier) guys as I guess they would be called. Why not just sign one of them and be done with it?
He drew interest, they asked for the moon, teams said no. Drawing interest is not the same thing as being valuable.
I’m not a Braves fan. I’m a huge baseball fan though. The only team he is a #3 on is a team with a good rotation. Yes, he’d be a 3 behind lester and Arrieta. He’d be a 2 for the majority of teams out there, especially AL teams. That should make you HAPPY to have a 2 in your 3 spot.
He put up the same season as Hendricks. Is Hendricks a 2?
And yeah he has “done it.” I didn’t say he won the Cy Young for three years. However, 3 years is a big enough sample size to say who a player is, even though the year to year fluctations are biggest for SP’s
His sample size is that he’s an inconsistent pitcher who lacks command and a good secondary pitch.
I agree, if your talking about a team like the Cubs or similar with a #1
Hendricks doesn’t go deep in games because it was his first full ML season. The leash will be lengthened in 2016. As for not having the stuff to be a top of the rotation type guy…. I don’t think anyone is asking that of him. However, I’d say Miller also lacks the “stuff” to be a top of the rotation guy as well, judged by his K-rate and BB-rate…… and WHIP…… and FIP….. and all his other mediocre stats other than his ERA, which will eventually catch up to all his other mediocre numbers.
Soler sucked last year? Pretty sure he had more offensive production than any current Brave outfielder last year and that was only playing 100 games or so. Over a full season Soler is a .270+ hitter with a .340 OBP and 20+ HR power…… that’s the potential he has (and then some) and has shown it in spurts in 2014 and 2015. He’s only going to be 24 years old in 2016. He just had his first full season at the bigs and it was riddled with nagging injuries. His ceiling is WAY higher than Miller’s. The fact that every team is turning down the Braves and their demands on Miller should clue in that Miller’s value is no where near what the Braves and their fans think it is. People keep saying “20 teams are interested” in Miller….. yet with all the articles coming out in regards to Miller is sounds more like the Braves have reached out to 20 teams about Miller and everyone has rejected what they want, probably laughing as they hang up the phone.
Not sure what you’re arguing there. That the Braves outfield was awful? Yeah, it was. That’s why they want an outfielder. Soler was injured and sucked. The Braves outfielders sucked even worse. Nobody’s arguing that.
You kind of argued against yourself there though with “nagging injuries.” That’s a red flag just like Miller’s metrics are. Every season Josh Hamilton has nagging injuries. Every season Hanley has nagging injuries. Every season Matt Kemp has nagging injuries. Every season Ellsbury has nagging injuries. Every season Tulo has nagging injuries. The list goes on. However, I don’t think any of their nagging injuries began at age 25.
WTF! Millers ERA was great, and so was his WHIP at 1.25, so that means he was great at the stats that matter most, just because the Braves have no scoring ability and the Cubs do doesn’t make him equivalent to Kyle Hendricks. Shelby Miller is a lot better than Hendricks.
The only stat that the cubs’ offense would have an impact on is his w-l record, which was never mentioned.
You clearly don’t understand how the minors work. Pitchers who already have 2-3 good pitches are working on things during minor league games. They aren’t pitching like they really would in a major league game. If they are working on a change up, they might throw it on a 3-2 count to see how relaible it is. That may (likely) lead to a walk if the pitch is still a work in progress. Pitchers move through the minors with not-so-good numbers constantly. Pitchers with good minor league number may stay in lower levels because they only have one good pitch which they rely on too much.
Of course there are the elites like Urias, Glasnow, and Giolito who blow everyone away at every level. But those guys are in a league of their own and nobody is trading them.
I’m a Rangers fan, but you Cub fans are turning me into a Cardinal. Lighten up. I think MLBTR is just going to keep posting a Shelby article every day so they can see the same stupid arguments over and over.
OK. So Mark Appel must be just doing a lot of work on his pitches then. Haha. You’re right to an extent, but a good prospect will still have good numbers even if working on developing another pitch. Very few top MLB pitchers had crappy Minor league numbers. Just saying it is a red flag is all. Wouldn’t be surprised if only like 1-2 of all the pitchers the Braves have in their system actually pan out to be anything of value.
It’s a small-medium red flag as long as the K rate is good. The only thing I’ll disagree with you on there is that maybe only 1-2 of them will be valuable STARTING pitchers. Surely with such a wide net cast, 2 of them will be above average-good.
But many of the rest may end up being good RP’s which obviously has great value in today’s game.
Heck I’ll even take average pitchers in today’s game. As long as they are above replacement level they bring huge value as long as the Braves can keep them coming and trade off the Alex Woods when the new guys are ready.
The Braves know they only have one to 2 prospect projected to be an ace, but out of their 15 pitchers they have other than Allard and Newcomer they are hoping that 25% work out and they gain 4 serviceable num 2-4 types over the next 8 years. 2 in 2017 and 2 more down the road when Sims or Allard are ready.
If wasn’t for Bryant and Scwhaber all we would hear is Solar is are all Star of the future so no trade don’t trade are kids Theo
Addison Russell says, “Hi”
The Braves made it clear that Miller wasn’t actually available when they insisted on AJ Pollock. It’s one of those “He’s not really available but if you want to go insane and offer 2-3 times what he’s worth, we’ll listen” type of situations.
Well, he’s clearly not worth AJ Pollock, but he’s worth a lot more than Baez, as the Cubs have suggested. Someone just needs to find the happy medium.
And I’d disagree… not because I think Baez is undervalued, but because I think Shelby Miller is grossly overvalued. He’s an average middle of the order pitcher with a high xFIP, a low K-rate and and a mediocre walk-rate.
For fun, here are two players:
Player A: 180.0 innings; 8.4 K/9; 2.2 W/9; 51.3% GB%; 3.25 xFIP; 3.4 WAR; 18.7% soft contact; 55.8% medium contact; 25.6% hard contact.
Player B: 205.1 innings; 7.5 K/9; 3.2 W/9; 47.8% GB%; 4.07 xFIP; 3.4 WAR; 21.3% soft contact; 52.0% medium contact; 26.7% hard contact.
Player A is Kyle Hendricks… Player B is Shelby Miller…
Anyone think Kyle Hendricks is worth more than Javier Baez in a straight-up trade?
Glad that was “just for fun” since your sample size is plain silly.
yea… cause we all know that a full year of data is nowhere near enough of a sample size…
Silly sample size….. of the entire 2015 season. yeah, how silly.
If you’d like, I could throw in Miller’s 2014 stats – but those numbers are worse across the board.
And Miller’s first 3 plus years are as good as Price’s and better than Grienke
Price has almost 10 fWAR in his first 3, Miller has 6.9. Price also had a better fip, xfip, k/9, bb/9 and k/bb.
His career stats are pretty questionable. His FIP is so much higher than his ERA it is alarming. Career 3.82 FIP with a career 3.22 ERA. He either has awesome defense behind him or is extremely lucky to have an ERA that low. Hendricks in 300 fewer innings in his career has a 3.49 ERA and a 3.34 FIP….. Much better or at least more promising, IMO. Miller’s walk rate compared to Hendricks is also pretty shocking…… making me question if Miller is even worth pursuing.
He’s worth nowhere near what the Braves are asking. His ERA was helped a year ago by an improved groundball rate and an all-world defensive short stop behind him.
And his improved ground ball rate was the result of adding in two additional pitches namely the cuter and two-seamer in 2015. I don’t think those pitches are going to go away in 2016.
Its funny to me that most people just don’t understand Economics 101… Supply and Demand.. The fact there are x number of Free Agents and y number of teams in search of quality pitching suggests the asking price of x player could rise or fall based on the market.. Shelby Miller in a market of options = not that good… Shelby Miller in a market of no options = great.
I just can’t process why people don’t get this.. It’s the same reason Andrelton Simmons carried such huge value despite his mediocre at best bat… The market for great, young, controllable shortstops is nearly non-existent..
Economics People.. Shelby Miller will be worth 10x more in 3 months than he is now, because there’s still big names to be had
People do get this…. it’s just that the market is flooded with pitchers right now, how are you not getting that. There are other young pitchers on the trade block that are way better than Miller. Then there is the whole “best pitching free agent class pretty much ever” to top it all off.
As for Miller being worth 10x more in three months…… I’d say it is very 50-50. He’ll either have an ERA in the 3.2s or an ERA more reminiscent of his Career FIP which is near 4.00. My guess since the Braves offense and now defense has gotten even weaker this offseason already, Miller will likely have just as bad a W-L record as he had in 2015 and an ERA more in line with his peripheral stats….. somewhere between 3.75 and 4.10. That is hardly worth 10x more.
Braves fans and the public alike need to realize that the Cubs aren’t exactly too desperate for pitching. They actually have very few real holes to fill. They had one of the best team ERAs in the game last year, both bullpen and starting pitching. Hendricks and Hammel were serviceable 3 and 4 pitchers and they had a supporting cast as their #5 starter which wasn’t too horrible. They really only “need” 1 top end pitcher to be their sure fire #3 behind Arrieta and Lester. Hammel and Hendricks, while inconsistent in 2015, were still pretty friggin good, considering Hammel has seen his career resurrected with the Cubs and Hendricks just had his first full major league season. If Hendricks builds off his solid 2015 he can turn into a Doug Fister-type pitcher and be that solid #3 for them. If the Cubs are to trade for starting pitching help and depth I’d rather see them go after the clearly better options than Miller or even Teheran in the likes of Jose Quintana, Danny Salazar, Carlos Carrasco, and Tyson Ross. Add 1 of those guys and sign Leake or Samardzija and that staff is pretty deep and pretty friggin good. So to act like options are limited or you using your supply and demand example, you’re right…… it’s just that the supply is surprisingly high right now for pitching and if you’ve noticed solid ML bats are becoming harder and harder to find. I mean just look at the Braves entire offense as an example of some of the pathetic hitting that is plaguing teams right now. The White Sox are right there with them in terms of pathetic hitting too.
To show how abundant pitching has become and how scarce solid hitting has become just look at the trend in team ERAs and team BAs over the last few years. 15th best (or middle of the pack) team batting average this year belonged to surprisingly the Braves with a .251 BA. Just 10 years ago a team batting average of .251 would’ve ranked 30th in the league….. dead last. In 2015 the 15th best team ERA belonged to Miami at 4.02. In 2005 the 15th best team ERA belonged to the Cubs at 4.19. Not too crazy a difference, but hitting has most notably gotten horrible and good hitting is getting scarce.
Here’s the trend in team ERAs since 2005 and number of teams with ERAs below 4.00.
2005 – 11 teams below 4.00 ERA
2006 – 3 teams
2007 – 2 teams
2008 – 8 teams
2009 – 6 teams
2010 – 11 teams
2011 – 16 teams
2012 – 16 teams
2013 – 20!!! teams
2014 – 21!!!!! teams
2015 – 14 teams.
If I didn’t know any better pitching seems to be abundant nowadays.
Here’s the total number of teams with a .250 or above team BA in those same years.
2005 – 30 teams…. everyone
2006 – 30 teams
2007 – 29 teams
2008 – 28 teams
2009 – 28 teams
2010 – 21 teams
2011 – 19 teams
2012 – 18 teams
2013 – 17 teams
2014 – 17 teams
2015 – 22 teams
Now my simple mind has a hard time breaking down trends, but if you ask me it seems that pitching is becoming abundant and good hitting is getting more scarce nowadays. .250 isn’t even that great of a team BA to begin with and I should’ve used .260 instead to really hammer the point home, but the trend is still clearly visible with the .250 BA. At the very least the supply and demand for good hitters is on par with the supply and demand for good pitchers.
Not going to read all that, but 3 months from now is still before the season starts so your FIP “bust” scenario doesn’t apply. I assume that “3 months from now” was used because at that point it will come down to overpaying Gallardo who is pretty poopy or trading for Miller who is pretty good.
Yeah, ignore all the other trade options
Price’s first 3+ years age 22 era 1.93 in 5 games with 14 innings and 12 k’s. age 23 4.42 era 23 games 128 innings 102 k’s. age 24 2.72 era 32 games 208 innings 188 k’s age 25 3.49 era 34 games 224 innings and 218 k’s.
Miller’s first 3+ years age 21 1.32 era 6 games 13.2 innings 16 k’s. age 22 3.06 era 31 games 173.1 innings 169 k’s age 23 3.74 era 32 games 183 innigns and 127 k’s age 24 3.02 era 33 games 205 innings and 171 k’s
Grienke first 4+ seasons at age 23 he was in the bullpen most of the season. age 20 3.97 era 24 games 145 innings 100 k’s age 21 5.80 era 33 games 183 innings 114 k’s age 22 4.26 era 3 games 6 innings 5 k’s age 23-bullpen age 24 3.47 era 32 games 202 innings and 183 k’s
If you want to compare stats would you have traded Soler for a Grieke or Price in their mid 20’s? I think the Braves are right on in their evaluation of Miller
why are you using 5 and 6 games of pitching as a season?
I am giving you the numbers from their first 3 seasons. Encompassing more then just 1 seasons worth of stats. People want to compare him to Hendricks or however else. I am proving that depending on what facts you look at it you can compare him to Price and rate him head and shoulders above Grienke at this point in their careers.
I am not saying he is as good as Price, but I am saying he is a lot better then someone like Hendricks. This is not a shot at Hendricks by any means. I think he is a very good SP. I think people are undervaluing Miller when you look at his WHOLE body of work.
Soler has proven only 2 things so far in his career. He kills Cardinal pitching and he can’t stay healthy. Granted it is only one season, but for him it is all to go by. Maybe Miller is tapped out as a great #3 or good #2 starter. One could argue comparing him to Price and Grienke he could be on his way to competing for a CY Young in 2016 and 2017. Either way Miller as #3 starter behind Arrieta and Lester for Soler is a great buy for the Cubs. I think Atl needs more then just Soler.
He’s not comparable to price. Price was much better through his first three seasons. You also can’t just look at their first three seasons of numbers and say he’s gonna compete for a cy young, or have a career that mirrors grienke/price. He has much worse stuff and less control.
Why exactly is he “a lot better” than Hendricks? Using what you used to “prove” (which you didn’t) Miller should even be in the same sentence as Greinke/Price, Hendricks has a better performance on average than Miller.
You do realize that FIP and WAR are merely hypothetical stats, don’t you? Their results are based off what “should” have happened in a “fair and equal” world, rather than purely actual outcomes. That’s not reality. Both of those stats can be informative and useful to a limited extent, but by no means should be relied upon as definitive talent evaluators.
For fun, I’ll play that little game as well but using tangible stats:
Player A ~ Innings-202.1; BF-851; ERA-3.47; WHIP-1.275; H/9-9.0; HR/9-0.9; BB/9-2.5; K/9-8.1
Player B ~ Innings-205.1; BF-860; ERA-3.02; WHIP-1.247; H/9-8.0; HR/9-0.6; BB/9-3.2; K/9-7.5
As you probably figured out, Player B is Shelby Miller this past year(his age 24 season). Player A is Zack Greinke in his age 24 season. As you can see, Shelby Miller would be considered the more impressive pitcher. He tops Greinke in every stat except for BB/9 and K/9. In BB/9 Greinke tops Miller by 0.7, but Miller tops Greinke by 1.0 in H/9. I’d rather my pitcher walk the batter and have a controlled outcome than allow a hit and leave the possibility of a XBH. I also believe strikeouts are an overrated stat. Is it useful to have? Yes. Is it the “sexy” stat? Yes. Is it necessary to have? No. A strikeout is an out, not much different than a ground out. All a strikeout does is remove the possibility of a hit, XBH, or fielding error. It’s nice but it’s not an imperative capability.
Not every pitcher comes into the league and dominates like a Kershaw or Sale. A lot of pitchers must first work to establish a quality consistency. Then they improve as they get older and acquire more Practice, Knowledge, Experience. He’s only 25 and has great potential. He’s already a 2, still growing and getting better. I’d say Greinke turned out fine.
I would expect more than just Soler for Miller.
Solid comparison. Good work. The K’s and BB’s aren’t even that off. It’s somehow being implied that Shelby won’t get better as he approaches 30. That’s what good pitchers do.
Basically everything you just said is wrong. First of all, three of those tangible stats you used are actually the ones that go into FIP and WAR, you realize that right? Second of all, walks are so problematic because, unlike hits, there is no way to defend against them. Third of all, strikeouts aren’t just sexy. They are by far the best kind of out, because they aren’t reliant on defense. No matter how weakly a ball is hit, if it’s hit in play, a fielder could miss the ball or it could take a bad hop and bad things can happen. Statistically, strikeouts are far better for pitchers. Whether you like it or not, the fact remains that the best ways to be a good pitcher is to limit walks, strikeout a lot of batters and limit hard contact. FIP encompasses more of that than ERA does. Fifth of all (am I on fifth now) FIP is a predictive stat. I think that’s what you were going for. Predictive, not hypothetical. Which is what we’re doing when we’re discussing trades in the offseason…predicting. A lot of FIP detractors say that it’s just predictive and not indicative of what’s already happened, which might be somewhat true, but in the offseason, when all we’re doing is predicting, that’s not a problem at all. The fact of the matter is that Shelby is not a #2 starter. He’s not an emerging ace. He’s just not. He might be a solid #3 if all goes right, or he might be a #4-5. And that’s the case regardless of whether or not you want to only look at runs and hits for the rest of your life.
That doesn’t equate to “everything” he just said. That equates to about 20% of what he said, and you’re saying that because he used the word “hypothetical” instead of “predictive”
So you’re going to get mad at him for using the wrong word even though he used the stats correctly. You’re trying to nitpick at what he did wrong instead if giving him credit for his comparison, which was the sole purpose of the post.
The stats I provided are stats that directly result from a players performance. FIP and WAR clearly use some of these stats, but you don’t seem to understand that they also factor in league averages among other factors to create a “fair and equal” playing field and predict what “should” have happened. The reality is that it didn’t happen, so trying to predict what might’ve happened is by definition hypothetical. Maybe read up on how these stats you’re throwing around are calculated before making accusations.
From Fangraphs:
FIP measures what a player’s ERA would look like over a given period of time if the pitcher were to have experienced league average results on balls in play and league average timing.
A walk is clearly problematic as opposed to a possible out, but I was comparing a hit to a walk. A player making contact with the ball doesn’t count as a hit. He must reach base safely for it to be considered a hit, friend(this I assumed you knew). So with that said, yes I would rather him walk the batter than surrender what could potentially be extra bases. Walks aren’t a great thing, and I would never argue that they are, but in certain scenarios you take the lesser of two evils. Yes it would be nice for him to improve his numbers, but his walks aren’t that big of an issue. Don’t twist my words please, bud.
Strikeouts are obviously the preferred out, that I will never refute. With that being said, strikeouts aren’t a necessary element to being a successful pitcher. There are countless pitchers who’ve made a great career out of being ground ball pitchers or merely having league average strikeout numbers. Usually these pitchers have great command and can get away with not having the impressive K stuff, but the point remains the same. Strikeouts are nice, but not necessary. Again, please don’t twist my words or use them out of context, pal.
I never said there’s a problem with using these altered stats for the purpose of comparison or generic predictions. I do have a problem with people who base their argument around these stats as being definitive when they’re in fact hypotheticals.
We can agree to disagree about Shelby, but I don’t see how anyone can watch him pitch or look at his stats and consider him a 4 or 5. Are you just bitter? Or did he insult your mother or something? I mean seriously. C’mon man. Whether he’s a 2 or 3 can be debatable, and it really depends on what team he’s on. There are a handful of teams who would gladly take him as their 2, and some of the worse teams would certainly take him as their 1. The WS champs would’ve happily taken him as their 2 over Volquez and Ventura going into the playoffs. So for you to say definitively that he’s not a 2 simply shows your lack of knowledge. He may never be an ace, but who are you to say he won’t? He’s only 25, has great potential, and has established himself as a consistent, quality MLB pitcher. If you would’ve read my post rather than attacking it, you would’ve read that I was comparing him to a young Zack Greinke. Shelby’s stats last year were better than Greinke’s at the same age. The point being nobody would’ve predicted Zack to become the beast he is today based off his younger year stats. Players get better as they grow older, and limiting a players potential this early in his career is foolish.
Do I personally think he becomes an Ace? Possibly, but probably not. Do I think he can be a great 2 on a WS contender? Absolutely. He’s a very good pitcher as is, and my bet is that he’s only going to get better. I believe you and some other folks are vastly selling him short and undervaluing his capabilities.
The future shall show us who’s correct, but till then you have a swell day, Joe McMahon.
Shelby Miller became a very ground ball oriented pitcher who had the best defensive short stop in baseball behind him. If you choose to just ignore fip’s prediction of how he would have faired had he not had that ss (and defense overall) then congrats. You’ve chosen to be ignorant of information that tries to normalize an environment, which is something that teams trading for him would certainly consider.
Wait a minute, Chester, you know I’m a peaceful man. (had to say it)
Did you read the entirety of my posts before responding, fella? Or did you just skim read?
As stated previously, I acknowledge what FIP tries to predict but I strongly disagree with using it as a definitive talent evaluator when it’s a flawed stat. It’s based upon hypothetical situations, and that’s just not reality. Refute all you want but it’s the truth. What FIP attempts to accomplish is no doubt respectable but by no means is it precise. So no I don’t choose to be ignorant, I can just see FIP for what it is and not accept it as a definitive truth. Now that would be ignorance.
Yes he did have the best defensive SS in baseball last year(to go along with an otherwise mediocre defense), but with that example how would you explain the two prior seasons when he didn’t have Simmons behind him. FIP has consistently predicted Shelby to have a higher ERA than what he actually posts. So then is Shelby wrong for not living up to FIP’s expectations or is the stat wrong? The point being that although it tries to “normalize an environment”, baseball isn’t played in a normalized environment. It’s a useful stat, but a flawed stat and shouldn’t be considered definitive. Think for yourself, don’t allow adjusted stats to think for you.
Yes teams may certainly consider it in their evaluation process, specially if they have a horrendous defense, but by no means is it the sole determining factor. I assure you that.
Zach Greinke has significantly better offerings than miller has and better control so I’m not sure what your random cherry picked example of a pitcher who is actually good vs. shelby miller really has to do with anything. BB/9 shows that Miller lacks control.
Again, it’d be nice if you thoroughly read my comment before responding, but oh well.
I wasn’t directly comparing their skill sets or their career arcs. I was attempting to make the point that through the first 9 seasons of his career, people like you would’ve considered Greinke to be a “#3 starter”. His younger year stats wouldn’t have predicted him to become the absolute beast he is today. Luckily for Zack and the Dodgers, they ignored people who doubted his abilities and he grew into one of the best pitchers in baseball. No pitcher, player, or person should be considered a finished product at the age of 25. That ain’t how life works, bud. People grow and better themselves as they grow older. Every career arc is different and not every great pitcher dominates from the moment he enters the league. It just doesn’t always happen like that. He’s young, has great potential, and has already established himself as a consistent, quality MLB pitcher. So to say he’s not going to get any better as his career progresses is somewhat ignorant on your part. I chose the comparison because it compared two pitchers in their age 24 seasons who posted similar stats. One of those pitchers, Greinke, didn’t become a dominant force until he was 29, and the other pitcher, Miller, has a long career ahead of him. He might “plateau” but he’s also likely to improve. We don’t know yet, and stats can only do so much to predict future outcomes(as seen in the Greinke example). So for anybody to definitively limit Shelby’s potential this early in his career is just foolish. Simple as that. Take it easy, pal.
Pretty much this. With hopes of contending 2 years down the line I don’t think the Braves are truly interested in trading Miller. If they do trade him I strongly believe it will take two things to get it done. 1) The centerpiece of the trade will be either near major league ready or already there. 2) It will be an overpay from the buying team, so all this speculation and arguing over Miller isn’t worth player X is somewhat pointless.
I just see no reason for the Braves to trade him otherwise. They could just as easily move him next offseason when the FA market for pitching is ugly, or at the trade deadline when GMs are known to sell their own souls for top of the rotation starters.
The Dbacks and Braves do match up pretty well on a deal though, if the Braves wanted a talented young CF. Ender Inciarte for Shelby Miller would be a solid framework. Both 25, both coming off solid 3+ WAR seasons. Honestly, I think Encarte might even be a little better and he has a extra year or control, but the framework makes sense.
I think Braves will pass on a platoon OF who can not hit lefties and has questionable splits over his career away from Arizona.
Over his career? He’s 25. Also his away wRC+ was 95 last year, which is more than fine for a developing young OF who’s a stud defensively. Honestly,I would take Inciarte before Miller if I was building a team, but if the Dbacks wanted Miller, he’s the only one of their three great outfielders that I would even consider offering.
Encarte doesn’t have near the value Miller does.
You’re right, he has more. More team control, just as good of a 2015 and a better bet to continue that performance on to next year due to the fact that Miller’s 2015 was very BABIP fueled and he was near replacement level the year before. Inciarte is a promising young OF, who’s a stud defensively and whose offense has been trending up.
Millers 2015 was very BABIP fueled? What are you talking about. His BABIP for 2015 was .285, league average BABIP was .296 and Miller’s career average BABIP is .274. So I’d disagree with the assertion that Miller was somehow the product of good luck.
“He was near replacement level the year before.” And the year before that he was a 2.5 WAR player. Miller has had two good seasons in the MLB and one eh one. Considering the additional pitches he added to his repertoire in 2015, I’m guessing that performance will probably be a stronger indicator going forward than 2014.
When you start inducing 15% more or whatever the exact amount of gbs he increased by, your babip is gonna go up. His career has little to do with current, gb oriented version, of Miller.
Another powerless bat for a weak offense. Not that Encarte isn’t impressive, the little depth we have addresses top-of-the-lineup speed with good defense in Mallex Smith. I can’t see him as being an attractive option as the framework for a deal.
He doesn’t have good power, but he has literally everything else. .300+ AVG, STUD defense, great speed and even his power has been trending up. .081 ISO in 2014, .105 ISO in 2014 as a 24 year old. Considering how good the rest of his game is, that’s not bad. He could very easily be a 25 year old, cheap 4 WAR outfielder next year. The only way that’s not worth Miller is if Miller is being horribly overrated.
Horribly overrated and yet you’re trying to find a way that your team can get a deal done to acquire him. Ha
My team? Huh? I’m a Yankees fan. I’m just throwing out a hypothetical offer that makes sense. Also I wouldn’t trade Inciarte for Miller straight up. Maybe for Miller and a decent prospect or something.
The Cubs or Dodgers should get Shelby Miller.Then, the Giants could sign Zack Greinke.
Who signs Greinke will help determine Miller’s value…and Cueto’s, for that matter.
Yeah I want no part of Castro or Baez being the main piece. I much rather have Shelby in Atlanta for the next 3 years..
The interesting thing about the Cubs is that they have another heralded SS prospect in their lower minor leagues. I have no idea what the Braves timetable for contention is — nor do I actually have any idea on what they’re trying to accomplish since their moves tend to contradict each other — but if they’re looking at 2 years down the line, Gleybar Torres would be a pretty good ‘get’ in a Miller or Teheran deal.
Yep – and Torres is ranked higher on MLB top 100 than any braves prospect – hes close to Albies ( sp?)
Not trying to be argumentive, but, Torres is ranked #29 in the top 100. The Braves have Sean Newcomb at #19 and Albies is #30.
Nor do I
The Braves were “smitten” with Jorge Soler. But not smitten enough to make a mutually-acceptable offer.
…and the Cubs were ‘smitten’ with David Price – but not smitten enough to make an offer once it was made clear that the Price negotiations were headed to Scherzer territory. So it works both ways – every team has a line they won’t cross regardless of how much they like the player.
I missed the release that said the Cubs were smitten with Shelby Miller or Teheran, I guess.
I missed the part of my post where I said that…
Miller and Sims for Pollock.
I would do this as a Braves fan. I dont think the DBacks would do it still though. They value Pollock very highly and you cant blame them, especially after the Touki trade.
What does the Touki deal have to do with this Pollock deal? ATL essentially bought their first rd pick from a previous FO for $9M. We would be so lucky to have someone offer us that for SP Jason Hursh — though not a comparable to Touki admittedly.
Point I was making was Arizona is gonna be dang sure to not get major heat after a trade again, especially to the same team. They are not gonna deal AJ unless its a obvious win.
Shelbys not even peaked yet, Sims ceiling is sky high could be in the bigs before the end of this year. Pollock is young controllable as well, but he’s superstar caliber. You don’t find .315 20 homers 38 SB everyday. The braves are going to have to start moving these pitchers at some point and that’s all the Dbacks lack to be true contenders. The braves gave one trade proposal Dbacks said no. If the braves were able to come back with another offer, that shows Pollocks not untouchable. Coppy needs to give whatever it takes to get this one done. We have no core now to build around. Freeman and Teheran that’s it. Miller will be traded that’s why he isn’t included. Adding Pollock could turn this team around. Him and a handful of good relievers we could contend depending on how the rotation matures.
What you’re missing about Arizona being in contention if they add a pitcher in your scenario is that they would be parting ways worth a top 10-15 position player in baseball. All that would do is set the team back. That offer really isn’t close
As a Braves fan I would not do this. The Braves need to stick to their guns. I am not sold on Pollock personally. He had 1 great season. He hit .302 in 14 with 7 hrs and 19 sbs. This year he blew up. Miller also had a great first half. I think Miller for Pollock straight up is a lot closer than most people think.
The interesting thing about the trade market for cost-controlled pitchers like Miller, Carrasco, Salazar and Ross is that their respective teams are centering it around the fallacy that the cost for pitching has exploded this off-season. But really, the cost hasn’t changed that much…
David Price’s 7 year / $217 million deal was designed around Max Scherzer’s overall cost from a year ago. The reports that Jeff Samardzija has a $100 million offer in hand sounds ludicrous, but it’s not that crazy when compared against the $100 million deal that Homer Bailey signed a few years ago. The thing is – the cost for pitching hasn’t exploded; it’s just standing out right now because none of the premier bats have signed yet. My guess is that once guys like Heyward, Cespedes, Upton, Gordon, Davis and Zobrist sign – these teams will be reminded that the value of cost-controlled hitting like Soler and Pollock is on the same level as the value of cost-controlled pitching.
You’re right, it hasn’t really changed. It just keeps following the upward trajectory of starting pitching, as to say the market is not evening out. That being said, teams with controllable, MLB-proven arms should hold on to them and let the market be set by Greinke/Cueto/Leake all signing, then see the demand will be. If it’s anything like we’ve already seen – someone will be selling their first-born and their mother.
…and Robinson Cano made $27.5 million last year. The cost for perceived elite hitting is no different. It’s absurd. Again, just wait until these hitters start signing. You’re going to have the same exact reaction to their deals that you’re having to the Zimmerman deal and the rumored Samardzija contract.
Agreed. 30MM/AAV is the going rate for ace pitchers today.
31/yr=we like you a lot.
32=we need you.
33=we gotta have you.
34=you’re the face of our franchise.
35=I have a wife a kids, man! Show some mercy!
i think the Astros will move quietly and make a run at Shelby.
Isn’t Hector Olivera and infielder? Second baseman I believe. I think he’s played a little bit of third and first as well. Why the move to the OF??
Cause he didnt work at those spots. The Braves have moved him to LF, early results are ok, but I would take them with a grain of salt.
He apparently wasn’t “comfortable” with 3rd so the Braves had him try out LF in winter ball. It does sound like they are worried about his early numbers and are making every effort to get him to the level their scouts believed he could play at.
Just read the Winter ball team he was on just released him. Didn’t read the article just saw the headline. Olivera is looking like a bust IMO.
Well the reason he was released had nothing to do with baseball. He stayed a day late to be with his sister and didnt tell them. Thats a misleading headline
You should really consider forming your opinions over something other than headlines then. Even if jkunkle’s comment wasn’t accurate, it’s also not uncommon for players in good standing to be released. Often players will have set dates that they are to be released on that are set by their parent team.
Some team out there is a Braves-like 2014 ST away from making a run at Shelby and giving the asking price. Braves had Medlin and Beechy to down within hours of each other. If a team has a pitcher or two go down and nobody in their system to fill the roll, they will give up an OF bat to get their pitcher. Teams will be more likely to deal in March than they might be right now. Just be patient and we will get what we want. If not, that is fine. We have our opening day pitcher.
What about Jorge Soler and Starlin Castro and a low level prospect for Julio Teheran and Shelby Miller? Then the cubs could do somthing like Span plus Heyward/Gordon in free agency. Dont laugh too hard at me if this all sounds ridiculous. First time I have even posted a trade proposal.
It’s still an overvaluation of Shelby Miller. His best season wasn’t even league average outside an ERA that was rescued by Andrelton Simmons’ defense at SS.
Wat. Not even league average? Do you understand what league average because a 3.4 WAR over 205 innings is not “league average”.
You are correct. NL average for qualified starting pitchers was 3.1 and 3.06 for MLB.
Food for thought…Kyle Hendricks produced the same 3.4 fWAR as Miller, is also 25, and has 2 more years of control. Do you think Miller is worth more than Hendricks?
I would personally rather have Tyson Ross but that is just my opinion.
And nothing to do with Shelby being left in games longer than he should have been because of a horrid bullpen? Shelby Miller through 6 innings is a solid pitcher.. Shelby Miller in the 7th and 8th inning was terrible.. That’s not exactly his fault and the miles he had on his arm last season far outweighed any other pitcher in the Braves rotation from Start to Finish
You do know that it doesn’t help a pitchers value if he can’t pitch past the 6th, right?
The more I look at Miller’s stats the more unattractive he looks to me. Seems like his is incredibly lucky to have a career 3.22 ERA or has superb defense behind him because his FIP is 3.82….. a FIP reminiscent of what a backend of the rotation arm usually posts. Generally your run of the mill pitchers have an ERA at least in the ball park of their FIP, the great ones usually have lower FIPs than ERAs. Miller’s FIP is more reminiscent of Clay Buchholz than Jordan Zimmermann, how the Braves fans tend to view Miller… as a bonafide top of the rotation arm. Clay Buchholz has a career 3.90 FIP and a career 3.85 ERA…. That’s how I see Miller being like over the course of his career. A mediocre pitcher who finds his way to the top of mediocre rotations, giving people the illusion he is a TOR type pitcher. I wouldn’t give up Soler for Buccholz so after inspecting Miller’s stats I have to say the Cubs would be overpaying IMO if they offer Soler for Miller. Who knows, Miller could continue to improve over the next few years and could become a sure fire top of the rotation arm. But as of today I’d say a Castro for Miller trade is more equal, IMO. I’d rather see the Cubs go after Jose Quintana and Danny Salazar. For those two guys I’d be willing to see the Cubs give up Castro, Soler, McKinney, Almora, Vogelbach, Zaguis, and Candelario. That’s 7 players to get those 2, more promising pitchers. Get those 2 pitchers you still have a lot of money for free agents. Jason. Heyward. Sign him to a 10 year $200M deal with an opt out after 5 years. Pay him an AAV of about $17-18M the first 5 years and then $22-23M the last 5 years. If Heyward keeps doing his thing and if his 20+ HR power comes back he for sure would opt out after 5 years so signing Heyward is likely going to cost a team only 5 years and $90M….. not too bad IMO. Structure the deal as follow,
Yr 1: $12M
Yr2: $15M
Yr3: $20M
Yr4: $21M
Yr5: $22M
-Opt Out?
Yr6: $24M
Yr7: $24M
Yr8: $22M
Yr9: $22M
Yr10: $18M
Then You still have ample room to sign either a FA pitcher or, say, Ben Zobrist. As for the prospects given up by the Cubs. Trading Almora isn’t a harsh loss since they’d get Heyward in FA. Heyward is the same age as Rizzo I believe so it isn’t like he’s your typical free agent sign of an older player. Heyward will fit right in with the youth on this team but also brings what Rizzo brings with his youth, experience. Castro isn’t a loss because they still have Russell….. Baez….. Gleyber Torres….. and even Tommy La Stella as options at SS and 2B. Vogelbach…. is blocked by Rizzo. Has serious potential though. McKinney? Probably the biggest hit since he’s like the #2 prospect in the system. However, with Schwarber in LF and a signed Heyward in CF the Cubs still have Coghlan who will take over for Soler in LF. McKinney might have been an OF option for the Cubs in the near future once Schwarber is moved to catcher or some unforeseen trade happens. However, the Cubs are still LOADED with OF prospects in Happ, Dewees, Eddy Martinez, and Eloy Jimenez. And that’s subtracting Almora, McKinney, and Zagunis from their OF prospect list…. how many promising OF prospects does one team need? Candelario is just a throw in. He’s got no chance on the Cubs with Bryant manning 3B for at least the next 5 years. He doesn’t have much hype behind him but he has been decent in the minors. If the last piece in a 3-4 player package to land either Quintana or Salazar he could push the deal over the top, more specifically if they deal him to the WSox who are desperate for a 3B solution. Possibly Castro, V-bach, McKinney, and Candelario for Quintana…. then Soler, Almora, and Zagunis to Cleveland for Salazar. Unless of course Cleveland is content with almonte in CF and Chisenhall in LF. I think both of these trades are pretty lopsided in favor of the Sox and Indians, but this is what I’d be willing to do if it landed me 2 quality starters in Quintana and Salazar. Most of the pieces the Cubs give away are either at a fully stocked position, blocked, or can easily be replaced by a stellar FA who is barely older than some of these prospects. Cubs 2016 team of Schwarber, Heyward, and Coghlan/Zobrist left to right in the OF. Bryant, Russell, Baez, Rizzo left to right in the infield. Montero catching. Arrieta, Lester, Salazar, Quintana, Hendricks for the rotation. Rondon, Strop, Ramirez, Grimm, Wood, Edwards, and maybe Hammel as your bullpen (I say maybe Hammel because I think they should trade him for a reliever…. maybe Papelbon who WAS wants to desperately get rid of… if that happens this is one of the best pens in the game). Then a bench of Ross, La Stella, Zobrist, Herrera, and Szczur…. I can live with that. This would be a stellar team opening day that would cost about $140M…. $153M with the dead money of Edwin Jackson.
Someone will overpay like the Padres did last year for Craig k. It will be a nice return for the braves
Well, seeing as the Diamondbacks have shut the Braves down 3 times already, the Dodgers telling them no as well, and the Cubs pretty much saying no to the Braves for what they want for Miller, I highly doubt the Braves are going to get what their asking for for him…. which is the moon for a #3 starter. People keep talking about all these teams in on Miller….. yet all I read about is other teams turning the Braves down because what they’re asking for in return is ridiculous.
Lol at the strong overvaluing of hitters in these comments and the undervaluing of Miller.
Might as well deal him to the Phillies newly acquired Peter Bourjos based on everyone’s opinion in here.
ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick said himself that Julio Teheran is not enough to land a Soler so take it for what it is worth.
You are staring intently at miller’s career ERA aren’t you…. while ignoring all his other mediocre stats….. and ignoring his Kyle Hendricks-like 2014 season….. the Cubs already have Kyle Hendricks….. they don’t need 2. I should add that Miller’s 2014 was actually worse IMO than Hendrick’s 2015, but for comparison’s sake I used it.
I know man, we need to just deal him for Bourjos and call it a day, seriously.
Yeah he had a bad year in 2014, which is why the Cards traded him with 4 years control over to the Braves + Tyrell Jenkins for 1 year of Heyward. If Miller’s ’14 had been as good as his ’15, no way the Cards would’ve made that deal. In baseball it’s always about “what have you done recently?” rather than “oh you had a bad year 2 season ago, we don’t want to risk it.”
Honestly, if you think he’s that bad, then why are the Cubs even interested in him? Not to mention about half the teams in baseball…
Because he’s young, under control, and not bad. Being interested in a pitcher doesn’t mean that a team is willing to sell the farm for him. People put way to much stock in the “20 teams showed interest”. Obviously…it seems that those teams weren’t THAT interested.
Than if you want to talk immediate memory why wouldnt Castro for Miller straight up work? Castro didnt have a great first half, but his second half was astronomical. The same reason that teams are hesitant to pick up Castro because of his 2013 season and first half of 2015 is why the Cubs, or any other team for that matter, are not going to buy high on Shelby Miller.
Other than his ERA was his 2015 really that good? Tyrell has a lot of proving to do yet too in the minors with his career 3.88 ERA and 1.39 WHIP to go with a 3.5 BB/9IP walk rate across 413 minor league innings pitched…… most of those innings coming in the lower ranks of the minors to top it off. Tyrell’s 6.7 K/9IP rate to go with that 3.5 BB rate is not exactly jaw dropping either. As of right now, even if Heyward leaves STL, they got the better ed of the deal. Miller’s ERA has been a yo-yo the last 3 years, while his peripheral stats have maintained their relatively mediocre-bad state. 3.2BB/9ip….. pretty bad. 7.6 K/9IP….. mediocre. 3.82 FIP…… pretty mediocre. 1.24 WHIP….. decent on the fringe of mediocre.
Take away Miller’s 1 stellar month of May and he had a 3.50 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP…. not horrible but much closer to what I expect of him. Also, his first and second half splits should be noted as well.
1st half
5-5, 2.38 ERA, 18 GS, 1.15 WHIP
2nd half
1-12, 3.83 ERA, 15 GS, 1.36 WHIP
That second half ERA is on point for where his career FIP is at. Minus the W-L record I have a feeling that 2nd half is closer to what to expect from Miller than that first half. Cubs already have 2 pitchers who performed well in the 1st half and sputtered in the second half in Hendricks and Hammel. They don’t need a 3rd.
In 2014 Miller had a bad first half but a good second half. 2013, his first full season, was really his only solid campaign to date IMO.
Cubs need to move on from this and try and pry Quintana or Salazar loose from the Sox or Indians… or both.
If the trade is to be equal consider this. Shelby Miller, Nick Markakis and Nick Swisher for Starlin Castro, Jorge Soler and Javier Baez. Miller-Markakis-Swisher have $73Million payroll with $53.0 excess value. Castro-Baez-Soler have $73Million Payroll with $53.2 excess value. The cubs are giving up 200k in value and a few years under contract with their group so the Braves should add a prospect such as Williams Perez or Daniel Castro which gives a slight advantage in the deal to the Cubs. Both teams are helped while dealing from their strength.
(But) Swisher has zero value except as a cheerleader.
Counted his value at negative $4 Million and salary at $16 Million.
How is a below replacement level player at 16m only a negative 4m?
He is not projected as a below replacement player, rather as a 1.0 WAR player. Swisher could outperform Soler next year. Braves package had 5.0 WAR in 2015, Cubs package had less than 2.0 WAR.
He hasn’t been above replacement in 2 years. No one is taking on his contract assuming he’ll be positive. Also, steamer pojects him at -0.3.
Also…that cubs package is projected at 1.4 + 1.2 + 1.5 = 4.1. Why are you using projections for Swisher and not the the rest?
Braves package projection -0.3 + 1.7 + 0.6 = 2.
It’s also way more expensive, has less years of control, and far less ceiling. Your proposal makes zero sense for anyone but a huge braves homer.
This would be the dumbest thing the Cubs could do other than bring back Edwin Jackson. Castro, Soler, and Baez have insanely more value than soft hitting Markakis, completely useless Swisher, and middle of the rotation arm Miller. Last I checked the Cubs don’t have a DH role for Swisher to fill. He is useless. Cubs get waaaaay older in this trade too. They get a 25 yr old, 35 yr old, and 32 yr old and give up a 26 yr old, 24 yr old, and 23 yr old. They give up a top 5 offensive SS, and two young players with insanely high ceilings. They get back a DH/OFer on his last leg in the majors, a soft hitting 32 year old OFer, and a middle of the rotation arm who MIGHT turn into a sure fire top of the rotation arm IF he improves and builds off his 3 years of experience. The fact he hasn’t yet after 3 years in the bigs I doubt he’ll ever be that bonafide #2 quality starter. Miller is a #3 whether Atlanta fans want to admit that or not. A #3 quality starter is not worth what they are asking and in no way what you’re proposing.
are you ok?? you think the cubs will trade a 3 time all star and 2 player with 30 plus home run potential all 25 and younger for nick swisher and Nick markakis?? lol what problem does this address? all it does is now leave a huge hole at 2nd base and still didnt solve the CF problem
Are you a braves fan? Swisher is negative value and Markakis is 0 or negative value w/ that contract.
I think the Miller-to-Arizona deal could only become a reality after Cueto signs. The DBacks need something with some semblance of an ace and Miller would fit the bill if needed.
Trading Soler is stupid. He has over 6 years left on his 9 year 30 mil contract. That’s insanely team friendly. Unless you can get syndergaard for Soler and castro. And it would make sense. Mets need to upgrade at ss /2nd and they need a LFer. Cubs need pitching that is also controllable and young.
Soler can opt into arb, so likely more than that, but yes, still a good contract.
Shelby was 6-17 last year! I know y’all don’t think record matters very much and I’m with you but curious if anyone else thinks that shows anything.
All it shows is that Shelby Miller had horrendous run support.
Ok, Im a homer, but imagine….
Bourn
Markakis
Freeman
Soler
Olivera
Baez
Aybar
Peterson
SR: Wisler, Norris, Newcomb, Banny/Folty/Perez
We wont CONTEND, but would we be competitive? especially playing for 2017?
Just a thought, we may only be one trade away from making this interesting…