DEC. 7, 9:30am: Iwakuma will land a three-year, $45MM contract, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (via Twitter). That would match MLBTR’s prediction from early November.
DEC. 6, 8:45pm: There is a deal in place that is believed to be for a three-year term, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports on Twitter. If that’s the case, then Los Angeles will be acquiring the age-35 through age-37 campaigns of the veteran.
7:24pm: The Dodgers are nearing agreement on a deal with free agent righty Hisashi Iwakuma, according to multiple reports. Indeed, ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden reports on Twitter that an agreement is already in place, while Joel Sherman of the New York Post hears it’s not yet done (Twitter link) but says other clubs think a pact will be finalized. The sides are “moving toward completion” of a contract, per Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter).
Possible financial terms remain unreported. Iwakuma, a client of the Wasserman Media Group, got off to a slow start and dealt with shoulder issues last year, but ended up turning in a typically excellent campaign for the Mariners. Over 129 2/3 innings, he worked to a 3.54 ERA with 7.7 K/9 against 1.5 BB/9.
Remarkably enough, that’s the worst single-season earned run average the 34-year-old has compiled over a single campaign. He’s been remarkably good since coming to Seattle from Japan before the 2012 season. In 653 2/3 total MLB frames, Iwakuma has allowed just 3.17 earned runs per regulation game.
ERA estimators largely support the results. Iwakuma posted a 3.36 SIERA last year and carries a 3.33 mark over his four seasons. In addition to a sparkling 16.2% K-BB%, Iwakuma has induced groundballs on just over half of the occasions that a batter has put one of his pitches in play.
Never reliant on velocity, Iwakuma has experienced only a slow drop in fastball velocity. Last year, he averaged 88.9 mph on his fastball, down from the 90.3 he maintained back in 2012.
It is worth noting, though, that Iwakuma missed starts in each of the last two seasons. He was sidelined for about a dozen outings last year, though he obviously ended the year producing solid results from the rotation. Iwakuma has also been somewhat susceptible to the long ball, allowing a 13.8% HR/FB rate and 1.10 home runs per nine over his career.
In rating Iwakuma the 25th-best free agent available, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted that he’d be able to find three years and $45MM on the open market. Aside from age, the major factor weighing down the righty’s value is the fact that a signing team will be required to part with a draft pick.
It’s easy to see why the Dodgers would be interested in the veteran. Paying a hefty average annual value won’t stress the club’s payroll much (if at all), but by adding an older player the club would be able to avoid a lengthy entanglement. Los Angeles had, of course, reportedly pursued several other high-profile pitchers only to fall short in the bidding.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Dipoto too busy making small moves instead of signing their biggest need in the offseason.
Because the M’s really want to get into a bidding war with the team who could outbid even the Yankees. Right! Iwakuma is good, but he comes with risk and advanced age, and Dipoto has no sway in Iwakuma’s decision. Seattle will find a good enough replacement.
Couldn’t agree more.
This wouldn’t be a bad signing. Good pitcher
Kenta Maeda to replace Kuma, maybe?
Too busy improving the roster to sign a 35-year-old pitcher who has had injury problems almost every year he has played in the MLB. I mean, I love Kuma, but he has constantly battled the injury bug (even back to his days in Japan) and in return, the M’s get a first rounder; something they need badly to improve their depleted farm system.
He is nice but they don’t need another long-term $15m+ AAV contract when they don’t even know if they’ll be good yet. Just as they’ve been smart not to relinquish the 11th overall pick to add an outside free agent, they were smart not to relinquish the mid-to-late 20s pick that they will be receiving for Iwakuma signing elsewhere in order to re-sign him themselves.
Well played offseason so far. Add to the bullpen and a first baseman and veteran starter if necessary and go into the season. If they’re doing well, which they may well be, then they will have the flexibility to make moves at the deadline.
It won’t let me see who is down-voting these comments, but I’d be curious as to why. I’m not gonna say he was their biggest need, but the Mariners need SP badly. Their pitching was their weakness last year.
I’m curious of what they will do now. Currently, they are going in with Felix, Walker, Karns, Paxton, and someone else. A lot of question marks. You can argue OF defense all you want, but they need another experienced pitcher at the top with Felix.
Probably individuals that love Dipoto. Most likely will need to spend more now on another SP. feeling that DIpoto doesn’t want anyone from the Jack Z regime on this team besides the key pieces.
Yeah, I don’t know what they will do. Maybe like Kazmir or Maeda perhaps. Dipoto loves trades though, so maybe something on that front instead.
Pitching was their biggest weakness, but the bullpen was definetly a bigger problem. The pen could barely hold onto a lead.
Cueto sleeper team?
What teams would need him?
Why don’t we wait until at least the end of the winter meetings to see what the Mariners do. The M’s probably think they can get a better deal on an arm than between $36-$45 M for Iwakuma’s age 35-37 seasons.
K!uma has had issues with injuries. He’s missed a lot of starts the last two years. If he fails to put up 180 IP over each of the next three years then I will moan. Now I want Dipoto to go hard after Kazmir. We could use a solid lefty between Felix and Walker.
Dipoto gets a draft pick out of this and could sign a pitcher like Kazmir who is younger and does not require giving up a draft pick.
Kazmir will get a similar AAV and he’s a far worse pitcher. Career 106 ERA+ so he’s barely above league average. He walks way too many batters which leads to his sky high WHIP. He is better suited for the NL in a pitcher’s park.
Safeco is one of the three best pitcher’s parks in baseball. Kazmir will do just fine there, particularly since Dipoto is shifting the team focus to defense.
Couldn’t we trade for James Shields?
who do you have to trade?
way to go Dipoto, number 1 priority turned into a loss for the Mariners, now you’ll have to spend to find a decent replacement for Iwakuma, just ridiculous!
on top of that, “Number 1 Priority” statement was a ruse….Seattle deserves better that what Dipitos serving….astonished that he failed on his #1 priority…#@$%&@!+%$#@@*Dipito
We don’t know the terms yet but assuming the deal gets done, Iwakuma and Cueto instead of Greinke?
Splash.
pitching, pitching, and more pitching coming off the boards. This looks like a good signing.
Not just waiting to see how they fix that pen
Should of traded for Hamels. the dodgers blew that.
Kuma actually is almost as good as Hamels. He’s WAY underrated.
Wrong, the Dodgers are smart to not go after Hamels.
Yeah trading seager and urais for Cole would have been the 3rd dummest decision in dodger history
Well I can think of 3 Colletti era moves that would still be dumber
iwakuma’s not actually that much worse than hamels, he’s cheaper, doesn’t cost prospects, and LA’s entire rotation was already left-handed
Maybe the Padres will be able to trade Shields after all with all these SPs off the board.
I don’t get it… we knew all along that all the free agent pitchers would be signed, so shouldn’t we have known all along that the Pads could trade Shields if pitchers getting signed means they could trade him? Like there’s some faulty logic in your statement.
To actually address Shields though, how about Tomas and Hill for him? Money is largely a push year one, then AZ adds like $10m a year in ’17 and ’18. Adds a innings eating veteran. Tomas was disappointing and seems excessive at this point. SD turns their old player with a big contract into a young player with a more spread out big contract. They have multiple holes they could try to plug him into.
I think Tomas does above average elsewhere. Particularly with an AL team. Just not enough playing time for him in AZ. It’s still a difficult contract to move either way.
Good luck with that!
That prob won’t be able to happen until trade deadline later in season
Great capture if the Dodgers land Iwakuma. Certainly will shore up the shaky rotation.
Dodgers doing a great job adding to their stable of injury-prone starters.
Not really that injury prone, hence the downvotes.
age 32: 219 innings
age 33: 179 innings
age 34: 129 innings
i’m sure his innings will shoot right back up because of blind bias.
You really don’t know what injury prone means at all. Go find a dictionary.
The guy missed some time due to minor injuries at age 33. He missed even more time at age 34. Keep the faith!! His age 35, 36, and 37 will be just fine.
fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=13048&posi…
If you could go ahead and look at that game log in 2014 and tell us when he missed time, that would be great.
Beginning of year. My mistake
Well not a bad signing for the Dodgers. He no cueto but he not a bad pitcher either
Honestly this deal will bite the Dodgers less in the long run than signing Greinke would have. Heard that a trade for Chapman is also in the works. Friedman is making the right calls.
Hopefully done tonight then can Trade like Holmes or Lee fir Chapman.
Zach Lee is basically worthless in trade discussions right now. He wouldn’t be anything more than a throw in
Lee has lost quite a bit of value, I doubt the Reds would take him as a centerpiece for a Chapman trade
No way Dodgers give up Urias for a 1 year rental…..Grant Holmes could be the center piece, with Schebler…. and remotely possible that Guerrero is included (Reds have Frazier on the block, Guerrero could replace him)
They would be crazy to trade Urias ,Seager or Pederson. So Holmes being one of the main pieces wouldn’t be a surprise
How does this hurt the Dodgers less in the long run? Greinke is an ace, and will be for a few more years, and you’re talking about a team that has limitless cash. By the end of his contract, the majority of their bad contracts will he off the books. Now, the Dodgers have to face Greinke and he’s pitching in their division.
How long will he be productive with all those miles on that arm without a major injury yet! It was a smart move for the Dodgers not to sign him… The Dodgers may only face Grienke 4-5x a year… Good luck winning anything in AZ.
Guess he wanted to be an ace on a team. Not like az has anyone else for him to compete with to take that spot.
or he wanted the most money anybody offered him. can’t totally discount that possibility
That’s prob the other reason.
I’d be willing to bet Greinke is effective for a long time. He doesn’t rely on velocity like Price, and he is incredibly baseball smart. I think of someone like Maddux, who was throwing 200+ innings with an ERA right around 3.00 – 3.5 until he was 36. And even after that, he was throwing around 200 innings. Greinke will be fine. Plus, Arizona has a ton of TV money that is about to come in, so they aren’t done.
At this point, I’d bank on Arizona going forward over the Dodgers. Young core on bargains, Greinke on top of the rotation with a healthy Corbin behind, guys like Bradley getting more experience. They do still need a closer. Now the Dodgers are relying on Kershaw in the playoffs, who has been awful, and Iwakuma who has never been to the playoffs. Greinke was your best playoff pitcher. LAD might win the West, but in a one game playoff, I’d take Greinke and AZ over Kershaw and LAD.
I agree. AZ has the makings of a good ball club. I don’t think this signing puts them over the top but they are certainly more competitive.
Yeah I really like this decision compared to signing Greinke. Obviously not as much production from Iwakuma, but still a very consistent pitcher. Compare the $200MM they would have had to give to Greinke with the ~$50MM they probably gave Iwakuma, and this is definitely a better decision.
Again, exactly my plan after the loss of Greinke1. Sign Utley (not Kendrick) 2. Sign Iwakuma (not Cueto) 3. trade for Chapman.
Lose:
Grienke, Kendrick and prospects.
Gain:
Iwakuma, Chapman, Roster flexibility at 2B AND 4 first round picks
and a bunch of money
Iwakuma is a good fit but they still need Cueto
Over the past decade most of these decent Japanese SPs have a great 2-3 years and then fall off the face of the earth. I would be concerned signing Iwakuma for more than 2 years, and the kind of money Dodgers are gonna have to throw him to not sign in Seattle.
Would this mean Seattle will get Dodgers 25th pick in the 1st round, or a 1st round sandwich pick?
I was really hoping it would be two years…
so apparently this website thinks this pitcher’s name contains a dirty word and sends comments mentioning him into moderation? makes it hard to have a conversation about him
Was trying to think of what I posted that could have been so offensive
Signing Kuma and Kazmir/Leake/Gallardo/Fister is probably a smarter and more needed investment than Grienke.
Kershaw, Kuma, Wood, Anderson and Ryu is already a solid rotation. Now they need to go throw money at Soria, Sipp, or Clippard.
Either that, or swing a trade for Giles/McGee/Chapman.
One thing that people seem to forget is that the Dodgers have 3 first round picks this year, so giving up an arm like Holmes to get a Giles isn’t exactly a huge hit
Great pickup for LA. Dude is solid.
So dodgers get him for 3 years I wonder how 40 mill maybe
At least……42-45 maybe
Signing him does it mean they will try to get that 28 year old Japanese pitcher
That’s what I was wondering as well. It’s a step in the right direction. I sure hope it doesn’t!
Why aren’t the Jays addressing their starting rotation? JA Happ fills the hole left behind by Mark Buerle but Hutchinson just isn’t going to get the job done
They don’t have the money to do so. They didn’t have the money to get a second or third tier arm which is why they settled for Happ.
Now the Mariners can sign a good player and give up the 11th pick because they get the Dodgers pick even tho it isn’t as good
They don’t get the “Dodgers pick”. The Dodgers lose their pick, everyone in the draft moves up and the Mariners get a compensation pick between rounds 1 and 2.
Ok, I never really understood how it worked, thanks
Also the Mariners wouldn’t give up their QO in any scenario. They have the highest unprotected pick and the farm is barren. Their best chance to replenish some talent is to keep the pick and they would then have two decent picks to restock the farm a bit, not get rid of the 11th pick and hope that the comp pick will net a good prospect.
I could see dipoto going after cueto now that they missed iwakuma, cueto was never in the plans because they had trumbo costing 9 million and thinking iwakuma would cost around 12 million a year, but now they have neither of those players so they could use the extra 21 million a year to give to cueto
Still could use another pen arm or two, a 1b and a bench hitter or two. For the cost of cueto, the Mariners could probably sign Kazmir or Fister and still add a bat or two. Not worth the investment.
Greinke will definitely be missed. but I think this is a good pick up for my dodgers.
I like.
Are the Mariners interested in shellby miller? Also this to me means dodgers are not trading for miller.
No, the Mariners are not trading Walker for Miller. Don’t even start with that.
Sign Fister! 2 years 14m
One of the more under appreciated starting pitchers in all of baseball. Good signing by the Dodgers.