Here’s a roundup of reactions to and news about David Price’s seven-year, $217MM pact with the Red Sox.
- The signing came together partly as a result of maneuvering regarding Price’s fellow free agent starting pitcher Zack Greinke, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes (Twitter links). The Dodgers and Giants wanted Greinke to make a decision, while Greinke wanted to know where the Red Sox stood. The Sox, who had increased their offer to Price yesterday, wanted him to come to a decision so they knew whether to turn their attention to Greinke or possibly others.
- The Cardinals made the second-best offer to Price, Bob Nightengale of USA Today writes. Their seven-year offer was, however, worth $30MM less than that of the Red Sox. The Cubs also met with Price, but did not extend an actual offer.
- The Red Sox’ willingness to offer a deal with no deferred money helped persuade Price to sign quickly, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets. (Of course, it must have also helped that the Red Sox’ offer was so much more lucrative than anyone else’s.) Price’s contract contrasts with the seven-year, $210MM deal Max Scherzer got last offseason, for example — although the dollar figures appear similar, Scherzer’s deal contains plenty of deferred compensation that reduces the deal’s present-day value. (Price’s deal also includes an opt-out after three years, while Scherzer’s does not.)
- Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski says the team is likely done making significant moves, reports John Tomase of WEEI.com. “We’€™ll be open-minded going into the Winter Meetings,” Dombrowski says. “We’ll see what happens over the next few days leading into that, but be in a position that I think our major moves are done. But when you go to the Winter Meetings, you can never tell what happens.” In addition to reaching an agreement with Price this offseason, the Red Sox have, of course, traded for closer Craig Kimbrel and signed outfielder Chris Young.
- Like Nightengale, Rosenthal also writes that Boston “blew away the field” with their offer. Rosenthal also notes that Price’s successes after being traded from the Rays to the Tigers and then the Blue Jays might have helped convince former Tigers exec Dombrowski that Price could succeed in a tough market.
- Price’s 2016 salary will add to a Sox payroll that appears likely to result in a large luxury tax penalty, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes. They could end up with a $215MM payroll for luxury tax purposes, which would result in a bill of about $9MM — 30% of the amount they spend over the $189MM threshold.
- The $31MM average annual value of Price’s contract isn’t a bad one for a large-payroll team like the Red Sox, and Price fits the Sox’ needs perfectly, writes ESPN’s Keith Law (Insider-only). Price immediately becomes by far the Red Sox’ best starter, and his combination of relative youth and good offspeed stuff suggests that he should age relatively gracefully in the next several seasons. Price’s addition should also help the team move Joe Kelly to a relief role for which he’s well suited. And signing Price, rather than, say, Greinke helps the Red Sox keep the 12th overall pick in next year’s draft, since Price wasn’t eligible to receive a qualifying offer after being traded at midseason.
- Price is a true ace, but the Red Sox are taking on lots of risk with his contract, Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post writes. Lengthy deals for pitchers frequently turn out to be troublesome, and if Price doesn’t take advantage of his opt-out, the last four years of his contract could become a headache. Also, Svrluga writes, Price (who has a 5.12 career ERA in 63 1/3 playoff innings) still must prove he can step up in the postseason.
mookiessnarl
Don’t like moving Kelly to the pen. He doesn’t pitch well when he throws as hard as he can, and that’s the one benefit to working him out of the pen. He had so much success in the latter half of the season when he finally started listening to the pitching coach about mixing his pitches better and not just trying to blow everything by everyone. Moving him to the pen reverts him to that mentality where he only throws two pitches and tries to overpower everyone.
adyo4552
You’re right that the typical benefit of being a reliever does’t really apply to Kelly. Nonetheless, it isn’t outlandish to think his pitching coach can train him to bring the right variety of junk to a relief stint. My hunch is the Sox will try to trade him, given his relatively high stock after that late season run, for there are many other teams that would give him a rotation spot given his age, raw skills and low salary.
mookiessnarl
I’d rather see the Sox move Miley to the pen or trade him. The ceiling of a guy like Kelly is higher than Miley’s. And Miley would certainly be able to bring back a reliever in return which is what is needed.
bruinsfan94 2
I’d prefer Kelly or Owens in the 5th spot. Milley traded and Johnson in the minors. Ether Kelly or Owens to the Bullpen or Owens to Pawtucket for when Buch goes down.
mookiessnarl
I think they could keep Owens up in the pen as a swing man and then stretch him out for when Buch gets hurt.
DL0806
At this point I’d dump Buch for whatever I could get for him. It’s about time we realize that not only is he injury prone, hes completely gutless. I remember Felger and Mazz called it that I’d check out against that game against the Yankees this year and that’s exactly what happened. We didn’t see him again after that game. I’d rather have a rotation of Price, Kelly, Rodriguez, Porcello, and MIley. Miley might not have great stuff but if your 5th starter is eating 200 innings, even 10 wins is a bonus. Why anyone would want to see Kelly in the bullpen after he went on that winning streak towards the end of the year is beyond me.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
He doesn’t pitch well period. Starter or reliever, pick your poison.
mookiessnarl
I understand the last three months of the season were painful to watch, but that doesn’t mean Kelly didn’t pitch very well once he changed his approach.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
He wasn’t good overall. Stats show this. Certainly he had some brilliant moments, but more than naught he was just a bad pitcher.
marc65
I think moving him to the pen is awesome! Kimbrel is a leader and having him there will have a tremendous impact on Kelley. I think he could potentially become the next Wade Davis
adyo4552
The Sox didn’t have that many options if they wanted to contend in 2016. Staying the course with B-tier starters wasn’t a viable option. Trading away prospects for a starter could have worked, but who was available on the trading market that is better than Price? The downside of giving up prospects for a starter compared to signing one and not losing a draft pick is both large and obvious. The Sox could have signed a different starter still within the A-tier, and I think this is the only wise alternative they could have made. But do you sign Greinke instead, hoping his talents transition to the AL East? The same question can be posed for Cueto. In all, the Sox likely made the very best decision, albeit sacrificing some future payroll flexibility to do so. It is hard to look at this move as anything but a win for Boston.
justinept
Who is available on the trade market? It depends who they wanted to give up… The Red Sox rotational issues didn’t surface because they went after B-tier starters… it surfaced because they settled for C-tier starters. Seriously – $20 million for a guy in Rick Porcello who had never attained a WAR above 3.0. That’s insanity. Thinking that Wade Miley was going to become a legit 2-starter following consecutive seasons of a WAR below 2?
bobbleheadguru
They could have signed Zimmermann AND Chen AND still had money for a positional free agent.
Eric D.
It won’t surprise me if Chen gets more than 100 million with the way the market as been going.
bobbleheadguru
Price cost double the cost of Zimmermann. In theory, the Red Sox could have gotten 2 Zimmermanns for one Price.
I doubt the market will remain this hot because supply > demand. There are ton of good pitchers out there.
Smart teams will wait until February 1st and see how the market has dipped.
Eric D.
Price also has double the talent Zimmermann has.
mike244
Zimmermann also isn’t nearly as good as Price. Zimm had TJS 5 years ago and TJS usually only lasts 5-8 years. Zimm, also lost velo and became much more hittable. Zimmermann is a #3 in the AL.
FWIW, fangraphs actually has Porcello (3.8 ERA 3.74 FIP 2.7 WAR) outproducing Zimmermann (3.81 ERA 4.07 FIP 2.5 WAR)
Not to mention, Zimm would of cost the Redsox the 12th overall pick. Also, Zimmermann probably signed for less to be with the Tigers given he wanted to play near his home. The RS probably would of had to offer 135 to sign him.
bobbleheadguru
1. Your sample is one year. Of course Zimmermann was a bargain partially because of this year… but that does not mean he will not be 90% the pitcher Price is at half the cost.
2. TJ Surgeries last 8 to 12 years. Where did you get your estimate?
3. I agree that Zimmermann took a “hometown discount” if you want to call it that.
start_wearing_purple
That theory would literally require a cloning machine.
Here’s the thing. Zimmerman is a good pitcher, but he is not now and never has been the caliber of Price. The simple fact is when you’re getting into final price tag for how cost pitchers any marginal increase in talent will, in dollar figures, have an exponential increase in price tag.
So in terms of value for the dollar, Zimmerman COULD be the better choice. But in terms of who could have a larger effect of their team, Price is still a better answer on paper.
mike244
Definitely. Price is coming off a 6.4 WAR season and Zimmermann is coming off a 3 WAR season. That alone should tell you why Price got a whole lote more. Nevermind all the questions surrounding Zimm (TJS, loss of velo, more hittable, ect)
Macburns
The #1 complaint out of we Sox fans last year was that we had no ace. No longer an issue. Getting even Zimmerman would be risky, because he’s never pitched in a super high pressure market. Price is golden, because he’s pitched most of his career in the AL East and thrived. There couldn’t have been a better fit for the Sox.
Eric D.
Why are people still seriously concerned over whether pitchers can perform in the post season? Kershaw has the reputation of being horrible in the playoffs, except this year he actually pitched extremely well, it was the Dodgers bats that couldn’t get to Mets pitching. But Kershaw still takes the blame. Is anyone really dense enough to put more weight on such a small sample size as the playoffs are than an entire 200 inning regular season? Unless you’re Derek Jeter, no player has played in the playoffs enough for it to be fair to judge them on playoff performances.
stormie
Seriously. Do people not get that this is why relievers are notoriously unpredictable in their performance? The smaller the sample, the more likely there will be huge outliers. Price could just as easily pitch to a 2.00 ERA in his next 65 playoff innings as he did that 5+ ERA.
mctigers
That’s partly true about sample size, but I don’t think that it’s as clear cut with the playoffs as with relievers. The playoffs are different, and not just in the “pressure” sense. The games are all played at night, it’s much colder than the regular season, lineups are stronger and deeper, and you’re not pitching on normal rest. So there are variables that COULD cause certain pitchers to struggle (or dominate) in October.
That said, Price is a great pitcher and I won’t be at all surprised if he figures it out and throws 65 innings of 0.50 ERA.
bobbleheadguru
1. When was the last time a GM/President traded for a guy, then traded that same guy, then signed that same guy? Amazing that there was no bad blood there between DD and Price.
2. Adding up the Tigers 2014 staff: $800MM in total contract value (Verlander, Scherzer, Price, Porcello, Sanchez). Unbelievable!
Draven Moss
I think Price knew at the trade deadline that he was going to be traded. It didn’t make much sense for the Tigers to keep him, especially with the slim chances at making the playoffs and the nice return that he netted. I don’t think it was like when he was traded by the Rays which seemed to have taken him by surprise.
MeowMeow
I dunno why there’d be bad blood anyway. DD bailed Price out of a sinking ship, onto a playoff team, and freed him from having a QO tied to him (which might have made his payday a tad smaller if present)
NL_East_Rivalry
RAJ and Cliff Lee I believe.
chri
Although the contract seems too large, he wasn’t gonna be signed any other way. You need to overpay these days to get superstars like Price (and he has way less mileage than Greinke does)
Boston needs one more strong starter IMO for them to be serious contenders. They already have a real good offense, a strong closer in Kimbrel and a great farm system.
Also, they play in a relatively weak division. Yankees, Orioles and Rays seem like .500-85 win clubs and Toronto is taking a step back after losing Price.
stymeedone
They lose Price but have Stroman to replace him.
Eric D.
Even if Stroman is as good as Price, he wont get there for several years.Steamer projects his WAR to be in the mid 3’s.
wilymo
well, he might. steamer isn’t omniscient. much less of a sure thing though, that’s true
Eric D.
Clay Buchholz and Henry Owens for Strasburg is a very real possibility.
chri
Source? Seems very unlikely for two reasons. 1) The nationals are trying to win not rebuild. 2) Even though strasburg is a FA in a year, doesnt seem like enough of a return on the Nationals end
Eric D.
It was just a speculation, I don’t have a source. 1) This isn’t a rebuild move, Buchholz is an established starter and Owens is MLB ready after debuting last year and 2) Strasburg has never really lived up to the hype, for the past few years he’s meddled between a mid 3 and mid 4 WAR, closer to the 3’s. Certainly above average, but not close to what the hype was. Sure there’s still time for him to explode, but as you mentioned he’s a free agent in 2017. I’ll take 1 year of Buch and 6 years of Owens over 1 year of Strasburg.
chri
yeah but Bucholz has not had a year since 2010 where he was neither injured or ineffective. One of the two always seems to ail him.
2. Strasburg is no Kershaw, I’ll give you that. But he still has a career 3.09 ERA so he is definitely a well above average starter (albeit playing in a rather weak NL East his whole career.)
stormie
Something isn’t a “very real possibility” when it’s just you speculating.
Macburns
Zero chance. I see them packaging Hanley with Owens to make it easier to dump Hanley on someone. Maybe even for someone like – gasp – Andrew Miller. Not likely to happen ever, but it’s interesting…
stormie
The Jays only had Price for 2 months, and will have Stroman for a full year in his place. I’d say that’s a lateral move at worst. Jays are still the best in the East, their offense is unrivaled, their defense is superb, and their pitching is good enough.
onlyringsmatter
you think Stroman will pitch on the same level like late 2015?I am not sure
Draven Moss
I still don’t think Dombrowski is done. I think the Red Sox could benefit greatly from another reliever and a #2 starter through a trade acquisition. A reliever like Mark Lowe, or somebody under the radar, makes a lot of sense for them. As well, a #2 starter would be of great benefit. Outside of Price, the rotation is still a risky one. If they could get a #2 to slot behind Price, they could then run with a rotation of Price, Acquisition, Buchholz, Rodriguez, and Porcello. That would prove to be a very good rotation and one with some nice upside. Miley would be flipped for some prospects or for a cost-controlled reliever.
Eric D.
I actually like Miley as a 5th starter, he’s relatively affordable. I think out of those five Buchholz would be the easiest trade besides a young guy
adyo4552
He’s so injury prone I can’t imagine they’d get a good return for him unless he is healthy and pitching well up to the trade deadline.
Eric D.
He is very injury prone, but he pitches like a strong number 2 when healthy, and teams with depth would surely like a mid-rotation boost
Draven Moss
Miley is a fine #4, or #5. He puts up decent numbers and is on a very good contract. I like him, but the rotation needs more upside with stability. If they trade Miley and trade for a #2, the rotation has stability and upside. They’d have their #1, #2, and three guys with the potential to be that #3 next year (with the others being fine #4 and #5 starters). Buchholz IMO wouldn’t net what he is worth because of the injury concerns. Because we have a fair bit of depth with Owens, Johnson, and perhaps Kelly, running with Buchholz and trading Miley would be the better option because they would get more value out of Buchholz and Owens oppose to just Miley over 200 innings.
3Tavgreg
One way to put the price into perspective is, at $31 mill/yr salary; and the fact that an average of 31 starts a year over a 7 year period for a pitcher into his mid to late 30’s would be phenomenal, means that as a best case scenario, you a paying $1 mill/start.
If he can average 16-17 wins a year, which is a lot over a seven year period, would mean
that they’re paying almost 2 mill/win, for only 1 of 25 active players. Crazy!!!
bobbleheadguru
You have to look at incremental wins v. a lesser pitcher, not v. nothing. Also, use WAR rather than Wins.
What I don’t like is Zimmermann will be paid NOTHING after age 34.
Price will be paid almost $100MM (almost the same as the entire Zimmermann contract!) after age 34.
chri
Just wondering, I’m a Mets fan so I really don’t follow the AL teams so much.
But do most Boston fans think the Sox overpaid for Kimbrel? Seems like those prospects could have went to Miami/Oakland?San Diego to get Gray, Fernandez or Ross.
Moncada appears to be untouchable but couldn’t they have included Vazquez in a deal for those starters and go with Swihart as their future catcher?
start_wearing_purple
Overpay? Maybe, but only slightly. In the end we did get one of the best active closers. But, as most people who love calling all Red Sox fans delusional would note, Gray or Sale or someone of his caliber is unavailable.
Vazquez is coming off of TJ surgery, makes him worthless as trade material until he can prove he’s healthy.
wilymo
as a sox fan i like the kimbrel deal. he was expensive but there are only so many top guys available and you probably have to overpay to get one, and i’d rather have one than not have one.
and i don’t think there’s any way the same package comes close to getting starters like gray or fernandez. you might have been able to put margot and guerra in those deals, but not as the entire package. if that was possible, i think they would have done that.
but it’s not like those were the only prospects the sox have. it’s really just a question of, was the price they paid to get kimbrel worth getting kimbrel. to me, for this team in this specific position, it was.
Macburns
The Sox have such a loaded farm system that giving up Margot isn’t even a ripple. With Moncada and Bogaerts they have two long-term studs in the middle infield, and there are loads of third base options down the road. The outfield is loaded too. To sacrifice some strong farm pieces (but not the biggest ones) makes sense to get three years of one of the top five closers alive. Moreover…with this being Ortiz’s last season, there’s no better time to go all in. Championships are hard to come by, and Ortiz is the best active postseason hitter by a wide margin. This all makes total sense.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
Red Sox should now sign Cliff Lee. He could be the biggest sleeper of this whole offseason whoever signs him. When healthy, that guy produces. I’d love him backing up Price in this rotation. Most likely a low risk / high reward type deal.
mookiessnarl
He’s not healthy though. He opted not to have surgery on an injury that required surgery in the hopes that it would heal on its own. That’s not a low risk high reward situation. That’s a low risk no-reward situation.
Angry Disgruntled Sox Fan
I wasn’t aware of his health. I thought he was recovering. Still, that doesn’t mean it’s not worth a chance.
bruinsfan94 2
We wouldn’t really have a spot for him. We have Price- Erod- Buch- Porcello locked in and then we already have Miley, Owens, Johnson. and Kelly battling for the last spot. If Lee is going to attempt a come back it will probably not be this year.
bobbleheadguru
I really find it hard to believe that there is any rational argument that Price is $107MM better than Zimmermann, assuming both are healthy throughout their contract. The “more years” argument makes no sense, those more years are when Price is OLD and certainly not worth the money.
As for health, aren’t there insurance policies for that?
bruinsfan94 2
Price is much better. Zimmerman had a draft pick attached. Zimmerman wanted to play closer to home and wanted some kind of no trade. Price is 30. Both are good pitchers but Price is much more of an ace. Don’t get me wrong if I were a tiger fan I’d be thrilled to have Zimmerman at that price. The Red Sox needed a number one and got him.
mookiessnarl
Last season Price was worth over twice what Zimmerman was worth. Over the course of their careers Price has brought 230.5 million dollars of value and Zimmerman has brought 149.5 million dollars of value. Price is a much more valuable player than Zimmerman.
Now why everything for you seems to have to be a competition between the Red Sox and Tigers is beyond me. The Zimmerman signing was a good one for the Tigers and the Red Sox signed who they needed in Price. There’s no reason to compare the two deals because Price is clearly the better player. Both teams got what they wanted at about the market rate. Anything past that is comparing apples to oranges.
The Tigers paid ZImmerman 110 million for five years, and the Red Sox got Price for 217 million over 7. Saying that makes the contract 107 million dollars of difference is foolish. You have no idea what kind of pitcher Price will be in those last two years, or even if he will have opted out of his contract after the third season.
cxcx
Came up with a response to a comment on the Price signing thread, but it’s so long I can’t even find the comment anymore so I’ll post it here.
Someone said Price would probably be good for 27 wins over the next seven years, based on something like starting at six and declining a win or half a win a year, whatever.
I looked up all the pitchers that won a Cy Young before 30 and established their similarity to Price based on how many wins they were worth from 25-29, with 27-29 weighted more heavily. I used rWAR. Didn’t factor health or velocity or anything else into it, that would take a year.
There were 16 such pitchers with at least 70% win similarity to Price, ranging from Jack McDowell (99.1%) to Frank Viola (71.1%). Half were worth more wins in the lead up years, half were worth less (picked that arbitrary cutoff to achieve that, and to get a decent sample size) From their age 30-36 seasons, said 16 pitchers ending up producing between 1.0 win (Barry Zito) and 49.6 wins (Ron Guidry).
Factoring in the degree of similarity (ie McDowell is weighted more heavily than Viola), I came up with a “projection” for Price over the next 7 years: 17.8 rWAR. I use quotes because of course this isn’t a real model and I’m not expecting Price to produce about 18 wins, there is way too much variance for that. But the point is that I think it is silly to expect him to produce 27 wins when such a small percentage of similar pitchers have done so over the same age span.
Here is the list of guys I compiled; it goes Player, Similarity to Price, and Age 30-36 rWAR.
Jack McDowell, 99.1%, 2.3
Doug Drabek, 96.5%, 4.9
Tom Glavine, 95.3%, 32.8
Bret Saberhageen, 93.0%, 14.3
Pat Hentgen,91%, 8.2
John Smoltz, 89.5%, 17.8
Gaylord Perry, 89.5%, 49.6
Vida Blue, 85.7%, 11.1
Barry Zito, 80.2%, 1.0
Jim Palmer, 78.7%, 30.1
Roy Halladay, 78.4%, 33.8
Orel Hershiser, 78.1%, 19.5
Catfish Hunter, 77.8%, 1.9
Rick Sutcliffe, 72.0%, 16.8
Ron Guidry, 71.7%, 23.5
Frank Viola, 71.1%, 19.4
Steve9955
Trade Bucholz or give him a vacation and let him start his season in June. Then, maybe, he’ll be able to pitch in October.
Miley is gone. Sox won’t have a rotation with 3 leftys in Fenway.
marc65
Price, Rodriguez, Miley, Owens, and Brian Johnson
dmm1047
Just how much is enough? This is getting ridiculous.