3:43pm: Heyward receives full no-trade protection from 2016-18 and limited no-trade protection in 2019-20, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. (Heyward will have 10-and-5 rights after that point, assuming he remains with the Cubs.) Heyman also reports that Heyward receives a $20MM signing bonus that is fully deferred, adding that the he’ll earn $15MM in 2016, $21.5MM in 2017-18, $20MM in 2019, $21MM in 2020-21 and $22MM in 2022-23 (links to Twitter).
Heyward can opt out after the 2018 season, and, if he chooses not to do so, will trigger a second opt-out clause following the 2019 season by reaching 550 plate appearances in 2019, Heyman adds.
DECEMBER 15, 2:34pm: The Cubs have announced the signing and are introducing Heyward today.
DECEMBER 11, 2:29pm: FOX’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that Heyward can opt out after the third year or fourth year if he meets certain plate appearance thresholds.
1:47pm: Heyward’s contract does indeed contain the option to opt out early, reports MLB Network’s Peter Gammons (Twitter link). However, he can opt out not only once, but twice, per Gammons. ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers reports (also on Twitter) that the first opt-out clause comes three years into the contract, meaning Heyward can hit the open market entering his age-29 season if he chooses.
1:35pm: Bob Nightengale of USA Today hears it’s an eight-year, $184MM deal for Heyward (Twitter link) — an annual value of $23MM.
1:04pm: Heyward’s contract guarantees him less than $185MM and is believed to be for eight years, reports Wittenmyer (Twitter link).
12:12pm: Jason Heyward has chosen to sign with the Cubs, multiple sources tell Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (Twitter link). Exact financial terms aren’t known, but Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweets that the Cubs landed Heyward for less than $200MM despite the fact that the Nationals are said to have offered around, or exactly $200MM. An opt-out clause in the contract would certainly make some sense, though reports haven’t indicated that to be the case just yet. Still, Heyward’s agent, Casey Close of Excel Sports Management, has previously negotiated such clauses for clients Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Masahiro Tanaka.
Heyward, 26, adds to an exciting class of free-agent additions for the Cubs this offseason (really, in the past week or so), as the team has already agreed to a four-year, $56MM pact with Ben Zobrist and a two-year, $32MM contract with John Lackey (to say nothing of a one-year deal to bring back Trevor Cahill, who had a relatively quiet resurgence in the Chicago bullpen).
Like Lackey, Heyward rejected a qualifying offer at the beginning of the offseason, meaning he’ll cost Chicago a draft pick. The Cubs, then, will be forfeiting the No. 28 pick in the draft as well as their second-round pick, which would’ve fallen in the early 70s when factoring in the first Competitive Balance Round and compensation picks for teams losing free agents that rejected the qualifying offer.
The question following this addition, of course, will be how Heyward slots into the outfield. The three-time Gold Glove winner is known as one of the game’s premier defensive players but has been almost exclusively a right fielder. Consensus seems to be that he can handle center field if need be, but with a pair of highly controllable assets flanking him in the form of Kyle Schwarber and Jorge Soler, it’s conceivable that the team will make a move to flip a young outfielder (Soler has been mentioned in rumors far more than his young counterpart, Schwarber) in order to further strengthen the rotation. Of course, that would again leave the Cubs with a hole in center field that needs to be addressed.
Defensive metrics are, of course, imperfect, but it’s still notable that since debuting in 2010, Heyward leads all Major Leaguers, at any position, with 119 Defensive Runs Saved. He’s also the runaway leader in cumulative Ultimate Zone Rating in that time (+94.4), and his prorated UZR/150 of +18.4 trails only Juan Lagares and Andrelton Simmons among qualified fielders. Those rankings hold weight even when shortening the sample size to the past three years, as each metric agrees that Heyward is the best defensive player in the game aside from his former Atlanta teammate, Simmons.
Wherever he fits onto the diamond or into the lineup, Heyward will strengthen the Cubs not only defensively but on offense as well. Though many point to his lack of home run power in recent years — he’s averaged 13 per season since 2013 — Heyward has continually whittled away at his strikeout rate and posted consistently strong on-base percentage marks (especially relative to the declining league average in that regard). In his lone season with the division-rival Cardinals, Heyward batted .293/.359/.439 with 13 homers and 23 steals (in 26 attempts). His offensive output was 16 percent better than that of a league-average hitter when adjusting for park, by measure of OPS+, while a similar metric, wRC+, rated his park-adjusted offense to be 21 percent better than the league average.
That the Cubs will effectively be signing Heyward away from the Cardinals only sweetens the deal for the club. Much in the way that the D-backs felt extra value by keeping Zack Greinke away from the Dodgers and Giants in signing him, Heyward will not only strengthen the Cubs — his departure will weaken one of their two biggest rivals. The same can be said of Lackey, who will also jump from St. Louis to the other side of the storied rivalry between the two franchises.
The Heyward market was quiet for a good portion of the offseason, but in recent days, the finalists were said to be the Cubs, Cardinals, Nationals and possibly the Angels, while the Giants also reportedly had interest but didn’t progress to the point of making an offer.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Wow..
Good job Cubbies. That should be a very entertaining offense for several years.
I’ll be laughing then they realize they paid > $20m a year for a guy hitting less than 20 hrs a season.
If he plays like Fowler with better fielding and better base running, he’s worth twice the money.
I’ll be laughing when the Cubs dominate the NL for the next 5 years.
That’s what they said about the Dodgers and the Nationals.
Dominate? Hardly, this is the best division in all of Baseball.
Best division in baseball? Is it? The Reds are purging, the Brewers are rebuilding, the Pirates have plateaued, the Cards are losing key pieces, and only the Cubs seem to be on the rise. This division doesn’t have the same talent it did in past seasons, the Cubs could run away with the division easily.
Drew – if the Pirates have plateaued at 2nd best team in baseball, then that’s fine.
Yeah the top three teams won 96, 97, and 100 games last year (in the same division too). The Pirates will still be a good club. The Cardinals haven’t lost “key pieces” either. Heyward was not the reason they won 100 games last year and I am so happy they didn’t lock him in at 200 million. The offseason is far from over and they will fill the holes.
Funny thing is, Cubs did overpay for Heyward so they better hope they win it quick before its time to pay all their young talent. They not have 3 players on the team with 100 Mill plus contracts.
Jesus this comment system really suck MLBTR.. Please go back to Disqus!
Yeah, Heyward WAS a key part of the Cardinals lineup. When you take out his defense and his offense it is very difficult to replace. I love seeing all of this though. Because it really let’s you know how upset Cardinal fans are about it.
cant wait until the Cubs implode next season.
Arrietta won’t be allowed to use steroids again next season.
Like what kind of comment is that? Your suggesting he did roids last year and now for some reason he can’t do them Anymore even if he were doing them hahaha. Just stop talking now
Still the best division in baseball considering all the talent imo.
RedFeather – There is a MASSIVE tv deal coming for the Chicago Cubs similar to what the Dodgers have seen. There should be plenty of money to sign the young talent. Remember, it’s not always about making massive profits every year as building the franchise increases the value of the company itself.
He still has 20 HR power. If Fowler can hit 17 in 2015, Heyward should hit at least 20 IMO. He missed a decent amount of time when with the Braves which is worrisome IMO, but over his career he’s put up an average over a 162 game season puts up 19 HRs according to baseball reference. I think on the Cubs and in Wrigley he’ll flirt with 20 HRs a year…… while stealing 20 bases….. hitting .275+ and getting on base .360+…… and playing a stellar CF/RF.
Also, rumor is it is an 8 year deal at $184…… odds are an opt out is in there somewhere…… my guess is after 4-5 years…. maybe 6 and opting out of the last 2. 8 year deals are almost unheard of in today’s game…… but so is a 26 year old free agent, sooo…… who knows. We’ll likely find out within the hour if an opt out is involved and if so the Cubs likely got a steal. Could be only like a 5 year commitment since Heyward would likely opt out if given the option….. assuming he keeps doing what he has been doing the last few years….. and if he repeats his 2015 performance the next 5 years he’d DEFINITELY opt out. Which would likely only make this a 5 year $100+M commitment…… sweet deal IMO……. if that’s the case. And if I was Heyward, I’d want an opt out after my age 30 season….. when players normally enter free agency. He could likely, at that time, sign a $200M deal which wouldn’t be as crazy money at that time. And that would VERY likely be the case if he plays gold glove caliber defense the next 5 years AND sees that 20HR power potential return. An opt out makes this a very valuable deal for the Cubs….. potentially.
In 2015, Heyward hit 4 HR after June 24. For 2016, single digit HR’s is as likely as 20 HR, IMO.
Over the course of his career though, over a full 162 games he has put up a pace of 18 HRs a year when looking at HRs/Game played. He is also moving to Wrigley field which while a neutral park in terms of runs scored, is still a HR friendly park….. ranked 3rd in HRs in 2015 of the 30 MLB stadiums. Compared to 23rd for Busch Stadium for HRs and 29th for Turner Field. ATL and STL are usually toward the bottom in terms of HRs allowed in their stadiums. While Wrigley is generally towards the top or at least middle of the pack.
That said, even if he only hits 15, only 2 more than 2015, he still is a 20+ SB threat. gets on base at a .350+ clip for his career, is trending toward becoming a .280-.290+ hitter, AND plays gold glove defense. A line of .285 BA, .360 OBP, 15 HRs, 20 SBs, and gold glove defense is well worth the money they are giving him…… especially since he has not one but TWO times he can opt out of the deal. Let’s say over the first 3-4 years he averages $23M (which I doubt, I’m thinking it is backloaded, a ton, like a typical contract). If that’s the case he VERY likely opts out after 3 years because only 5 years and $115M would be left on the table and he’d be entering his 29 yr old season if he opts out after 3 years. If he puts up the line I just listed above he WILL opt out, because a hitter that age who can hit at the top of the order AND provide all that will get WAAAAAAY more than $115M in free agency. Odds are the AAV for those 3 first years is going to be more like $18M. Which means 3 years and $54M. which makes this deal a potential steal.
As for you saying he is just as likely to hit single digit HRs in HR friendly Wrigley as he is to hit 20 is just nonsense. He’s hit at least 10 HRs every year in the bigs and that’s including a 2013 season where he only played 102 games. He has NEVER had a single digit HR season. Couple that with the move to Wrigley and your comment pretty much tells me it came straight from somewhere below your waistline.
I think the fact that Heyward’s not hitting 20 HR is the best part of this all. His production comes by keeping the ball in the park which is perfect as the Cubs #2 hitter. The more men onboard for Bryant, Rizzo, Schwarber the better!
sorry, but 12HR and 60RBI’s is not going to be that difficult for the Cardinals to replace. nice player….but not at that price. I also hope the Birds don’t sign Alex Gordon…same thing. Nice player but not at $15-20mil.
we don’t homer idiot we signed him for his BA, Defence, ONBP
Don’t cry and burn your city down now. Cards offered him 200 Million lol, looks like he took less money to go with a future winner. DW Gordon will make up for him..LMAO
Pretty sure that they can also read fangraphs.
Like Derek jeter.
Haha ummmmm they know that already??
Rather, until he opts out.
Im sure most of baseball last 24hrs thought the nationals were favourite, but wow the cubs!? Their management wants to win right now, its great to see that.
terrible deal
Now bring on the ridiculous contract figures!!
I say 10 220
If he signed with the Cubs for less than $200m than I would guess it is somewhere around 8/184m.
I saw 6/ 190 is being floated around. Ridiculous if true
I doubt it, but i could see an opt out after 4 years.
This 6/190 number was from a fake account.
I saw 200 years at $1 million/year…
good guess
Man hope it works but lets see how much its for.
LOL, probably what 225/8 with an opt-out after 4 because everyone knows the Cubs will have overextended and underperformed by that time, except Heyward will be hitting .230 with those 15HR’s and hanging around with a 5 WAR because defensive metrics are highly overrated.
Yeah, no worries here.
If he’ll be hanging around with 5 WAR, he’ll still be well worth the contract.
Yes, because “everyone knows” except anyone that pays attention to baseball. Congrats on being WAY off with your total salary prediction too.
Thanks, I hope you feel better about yourself!
As a Braves fan, just so glad he didnt sign with Nats.
As a Braves fan, don’t be surprised if they deal Inciarte for Soler next. Cubs get defensively strong in RF and CF instead of taking Heyward out of his natural position of strength.
What are you Braves fans smoking? Soler for Inciarte? What a joke. What else besides Inciarte who would be a huge downgrade offensively for the Cubs. The Cubs will win the division without making one more move. If they trade Baez or Soler it would only be for pitching.
For a team that hasn’t won a WS in a century, let’s hope winning the division isn’t the endgame.
Soler is 23, hit .262 .324 .399.
Inciarte is 25, hit .303 .338 .408
Not much light between the two players; Inciarte swaps singles for walks with Soler (note the big BA dif but the tiny OBP dif) and thats pretty much it.
Inciarte is also a billionty times better defensively. I know this was about offense, but defense does seem to matter to the Cubs, even if it doesn’t to some of the readers here.
-C
Really? Soler is pretty good on offense too. While Soler had a little over half the sample size last season, he only had 1 error in 149 chances with 4 assists and a .993 fielding percentage. Inciarte had 270 chances 10 assists but 6 errors and a .978 fielding percentage. So, in case some readers wanted to form their own opinion, there it is.
Don’t think Braves would want a maybe when they already have the sure thing when it comes to batting.
I wouldn’t trade a guy who hovers around the .300 OBP for a guy who has a Hank Aaron type smooth swing with a huge ceiling. Doubt Inciarte will have half as successful a career as Soler. Hence, that is why all the Brave fans want him so bad.
Soler ranked 7 runs below average (UZR) and 8 runs below average (DRS) in right field while Inciarte was 15 runs above average (UZR) and 29 runs above average (DRS) across three defensive positions, including +1 (UZR) and +4 (DRS) in center, a premium position.
While we should remain mindful of sample size, Inciarte is probably 2 wins better than Soler on defense alone. If Soler simply had a rough year in the field, it’s still better than one win above replacement difference.
Once again, we must be mindful of sample size, but Inciarte was actually the better hitter last season. That doesn’t mean his true talent level is better than that of Soler, but he’s only one year older.
Upside is pretty awesome on Soler’s end, but Inciarte has been far more valuable to date. They both have five years left before they are free agents, so there’s no difference there, either.
-C
It was going to kill me if I saw him in a Nats uniform. Way to go cubs.
I mean they have to trade Soler now right? Everything positive Heyward brings defensively will be moot with Soler and Schwarber sharing the OF with him. Cubs are still starting to look like a super team.
Where is Heyward going to play? Do they put him in right or do they try him out at center since his stellar defense gives him the range to do that? Do they really need to trade a young cost controlled RF with as much upside as Soler has? Schwarber’s D is suspect obviously but an OF of Schwarber, Heyward, and Soler is scary good
I would suspect they DONT feel pressure to trade him so that if they DO, it wont be for some silly little player dump
I would think so yeah. Everyone with a decent CF to spare (or maybe not even “to spare”) are asking themselves if they want Soler.
Jackie Bradley Jr is gonna be the new center fielder for the cubs
No, thank you.
i actually thought about that too. Soler plays right for redsox and bradley center for cubs. that way the sox can keep mookie in center.
Yes, I would imagine Soler is on the block for pitching. I believe they’re in on Span and Fowler as well.
Cubs don’t need Span or Fowler anymore
Wonder if that has anything to do with the article saying the Rays rumors are heating up….
If Odorizzi is on the table from the Rays sure but can’t think of anyone else the Cubs need off them.
Bullpen arms, because your pen is terrible and going to cost you games. 1-2 bullpen pieces makes them scary in every aspect of the game.
Rondon, Strop, Grimm, Wood, Ramirez, Cahill, Brothers, Warren, Edwards. Cubs will have a tough time deciding which ones to keep.
Dodgers were the last super team, before that the Marlins.
9/216
Man, the Cubs were already going to be a scary team for a number of years before this. Kudos to them.
My thoughts are, I liked him on a short term deal, but he’s got a young man’s skill set. Kept thinking Crawford and Ellsbury. He’ll help the Cubs, but I think the cards would be better served by signing power which is what they lacked anyway. So, to recap. Don’t mind him going elsewhere, as long as the birds get an Upton or Davis etc.
Can’t wait to hear all of the STL fans’ hot takes!
Predictions: “He’s not that good anyway,” or “Way overrated for that amount of money,” or “Cubs still haven’t won a World Series in 100+ years.”
Sorry, BFIB.
Those are all accurate statements.
Sorry lovable losers. 😉
Just repeat, “thank you sir may I have another?”
You’ll need to use that a lot going forward.
He’s not that good, and he’s not worth that money?
I mean if you’re already aware of the issues and you’re just happy to have now overspent for two overrated free agents who haven’t come up in the cluch, have fun in 2019 when you’re back in last place and have 100m/year in dead weight on the team like the Red Sox do right now with absolutely no hope in sight.
Like redsox? U mean WS champs 3 out of 11 yrs. mayb just mayb u should use another team as an example
BoSox beat the Cards twice too
Glad the Cards didn’t spend that money.. Last time they lost out on a big-ticket position player, they turned the comp pick into Michael Wacha.
Exactly, Cards dont want to nor need to spend that kind of money
Then why did they offer it?
We have no idea what they offered.
I have been one of the very few Cardinal fans that have been against the Cards signing Heyward. In my opinion, anything over 140M would have been too much.
Good guy, good player… but will he be worth it? Maybe it was a great signing, maybe it was a big mistake for Mo but I’m relieved they didn’t sign him.
Great fit for the cubs though, he was the missing piece. The birds have a lot more work to do and have more missing pieces than the cubs, would have been stupid to invest so much in the guy.
Youre going to hear things like that because Cardinals fans were pretty much split dont the middle on Heyward coming back.. Possible leaning more towards the majority NOT wanting the Cardinals to reach that amount for one player.
I’ll add another.
All those years of tanking in exchange for free top draft picks really paid off. The draft system allows such a large mis-managed market with no shortage of money to be so competitive all of a sudden. Congrats on the Pujols 2.0 signing.
Cubs lost 91 games with no upside before Epstein took over. It needed a complete teardown and rebuild.
you guys get competitive balance picks which is a joke
they were operating under the rules of the system.
Enjoy Chris Davis – who will be Pujols 2.0 !!!!!
No going to sign Davis. Probably sign Gordon and a pitcher.
If all those are true then are they still ridiculous statements?
What about this one.
It’s stupid to fork over $24 mil/yr on a player with his offensive stats. I’m embarrassed that the Cardinals were even in the sweepstakes to begin with.
Wanted Jason to sign with the Cards but oh well. This off season has already been a train wreck for the Cards. Guess we’ll see what a full season of Piscotty playing RF will give us.
They say its under 200
Sources say for less than 200M according to Jon Heyman.
This is NOT a sour grapes post, though I’ll probably be accused of it. But when Theo started seriously opening up the wallet when he was Boston’s GM it was a sign he was desperate and a lot of his big deals did not work out. So speaking from a history stand point it’ll be interesting to see what happens to the Cubs this year.
Only 2 deals that I never liked when Theo was in Boston was the Carl Crawford deal and the Dice-K deal.
Eh, the Dice-K deal was more of a business deal than a baseball deal. It was a way for the Sox to expand business to Asian and depending on the reports you listen to it worked.
If the kids who did well last year don’t regress too much, they’ll probably win the division easily and the World Series and then the curse will be over and everyone will start in with idiotic dynasty talk.
Then reality will set in and they’ll look just like the Red Sox, which is a fairly pathetic team full of overpriced veterans that gave up any illusions of wanting to play competitively once they got their long huge contract and have no pressure at all any more.
I don’t see it going any way differently from how the Red Sox were left in the same way honestly, but I’m sure most Cubs fans would mortgage the next 100 years for a World Series right now, wouldn’t they?
Sox won 3 Series over 9 years. Cubs fans would be perfectly fine with that.
Yes. Yes I would. Where do I sign?
It’s amusing when people think Theo is the primary reason the Red Sox won 3 World Series when Dan Duquette brought on Tim Wakefield, Johnny Damon, Jason Varitek, Manny Ramirez, Derek Lowe, Kevin Youkilis, and Jon Lester.
And how could I have forgotten? Duquette was the one who brought on Pedro Martinez too?! Not to say that Theo isn’t a good GM, but Duquette set the table in Boston.
You’re on a roll with the Cubs hate in this thread. So in your scenario, the Cubs win the series in 2016, and in 2017 they’ll be a ‘fairly pathetic team full of overpriced veterans’? Their entire line-up aside from Zobrist will still be under 30 in 2017.
And by the way, the Red Sox won three WS, so if the Cubs go the same way as the Red Sox, Cubs fans will be thrilled.
All I’m saying is a lot of Theo’s biggest deals, money wise, didn’t pay off. It’s just one thing to think about when analyzing this deal.
Could be said that intelligent people learn valuable lessons from mistakes.
But……………..with two World Series after decades without any, I’d gladly take it.
I’ll say 8 for 190
Heyward is a nice player but the Cards were smart to back off. Bottom line is this guy is a 15-75 .280 hitter. Cubs are betting on potential. Too bad Soriano and Bradley are retired! 🙂
The Cubs are not betting on potential. The performances he’s already given are worth WELL over $20M a year.
12-59 .280 is worth $20m a year? That’s what Jason has averaged the last two years at an age when a great player should be producing big numbers. 😮
The things Heyward does are not measured by the numbers you are looking at.
The fact that you are measuring Heyward’s value based on BA, HR, and RBI is laughable. Do you judge a pitcher by W-L record too?
What the fact that he had a .359 OBP last year and a .353 career OBP? What about the fact that he stole 23 bases last year and only got caught 3 times? What about the fact that he is one of the best defensive players in the game? What about his impressive contact ability that has allowed him to strikeout less than 100 times in each of the past 3 seasons.
You seem to be forgetting (probably selectively) about everything else that makes Heyward a great player. BA, HR, and RBI don’t represent what Heyward brings to the table.
Willie Mays was a great player. Stan Musial was a great player. Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Williams, DiMaggio, Bonds, Cobb. Heyward is a nice player but he is NOT in this type of league when I talk about “great.” Jason hasn’t even been selected to an all star team let alone talking about him being “great” today. There are probably more than 20 OF’s in the game today I’d rather have than Jason. But, he’s a FA now and the others are not. The cubs are betting on potential..
Actually before all the imbeciles started rambling on about WAR stats a few years ago, it was all about AVG, HR, RBI and how good someone played defense. I’m glad the Cubs got Heyward because I think he makes them better, but he is way overvalued because the hypothetical prediction model stats that rarely pan out work for him because he slightly above avg. in all categories. In reality he won’t hit over .300, he won’t hit 25 HR, he won’t get 100 RBI, and guess what Soup? .360 OBP is okay but not great! .380 and up is considered great.. According to the modern stats Barry Bonds would have made over 60 million a year even before the steroids, along with every other 5 tool player who was far and away better than Heyward.
“The fact that you are measuring Heyward’s value based on BA, HR, and RBI is laughable.” This quote made me laugh out loud.
yes, the price per WAR in free agency is between $7.5m and $8m, Heyward is a 5-6 WAR player. This is a bargain buy even with the opt outs. It’s 2015 people, time to learn modern player analysis.
how did us old timers ever get along without stats like WAR, RAA, RAR, etc? Without these stats, we had no way of knowing how good players like Mays, Musial , Williams, Koufax, Spahn, Berra were! Because of WAR, we know Trout, Harper, Grienke were some of the best players this year! If the Cubs think Heyward is worth $20-$25 mil a year….fine. But, they’re betting on potential not on actual production for his career so far.
And for all the comparisons to Soriano… Heyward will be 5 years into this contract before he’s as old as Soriano was when he starred his
True….to compare him with Soriano is an insult—– to Alphonso. Soriano averaged 25-76 ..265 for the Cubs. Jason has had 20+ HR only once in his career so far.
Sigh
Plus, Soriano had The Will TO WIN ™!
and home runs are the only stat that counts right? are you 12 or 112 years old?
I’m actually somewhere right in between. But for me….the only two hitters stats that really count are runs scored and RBI’s. That’s what the game is about….scoring runs. So far, Heyward has not done that. HR’s are a bonus because you get both. That’s why Ralph Kiner once said: “HR hitters drive Cadillacs, singles hitters drive Fords!” Curt Flood was a very good player. A sensational defensive center fielder who usually got 200 hits and a 300 average. But he’s not in the hall of fame and Willie Mays is. As much as I enjoyed watching Flood, he was not in Willie’s class because Flood hit 10 HR’s a year and Mays hit 40.
Oh well lol. Cards never did really need him, especially the money he commanded
Yeah, because they would have just coasted to 100 wins sans him.
The Cubs should win for the next decade.
Should, but you never know. They’ve been super lucky with injuries so far in this run. Those have a way of ruining seasons very quickly.
They also are counting WAY too much on Arrieta continuing to be lights out. That won’t happen.
Can’t wait for ESPN to pick them to win the WS now.
I can’t wait for ESPN to pick the Nationals to win the WS. Again. Just to watching fall out by July
Oh yeah
I hope it’s something like 8/180 MM with opt-out after 5th year. Heyward takes less to play for Maddon and be a key facet of a historic World Series win at some point in his contract.
Just wishful thinking from a Cubs fan. Now, package Soler and Underwood for Carlos Carrasco. Or, Almora, Soler and Underwood for Enciarte and Teheran. Even more wishful thinking. Great day!
Did you see what the Braves got for Miller? That package won’t even be close to enough for Carlos.
Yeah, you’re absolutely right. Still in the pre-Miller deal mindset, so I wasn’t adjusting accordingly.
Do you have any proposals you think could work?
Personally, I think the John Hart Braves’ front office is going to be impossible to deal with. Would Teheran and Inciarte look amazing on this Cubs’ roster? Yes, obviously. About a perfect fit. But it isn’t going to happen.
They’d want Soler plus plus plus. And those two players just aren’t worth it. Soler is an offensive monster waiting to break out, and Inciarte has likely peaked. While his value is still pretty high, I don’t feel it’s worth the price of poker. Let alone what it would additionally cost to get Teheran.
Cubs should sit back and wait for some team to realize they’re a big bat short and that team comes calling. Reality is, the Cubs have the commodity that is in short supply. Young, good position players with immense upside.
I honestly am not super familiar with the Cubs entire system, so I don’t know how good of a prospect Underwood is or if he projects to be a TOR arm (or how far away he is from the majors), but assuming he projects to be a 2-3, I’d say Soler and Underwood would be a good start. Then you could probably finish it off by adding in Baez. If not Baez, probably Gleybar + another low-level high-ceiling lottery ticket.
Like I said though, not super familiar with the entire system; I just know really good pitching isn’t going to come cheap.
8/192
This is pathetically embarassing for Cardinals management. Signed to your rival and less than $200mm.
F#$% the Cardinals. Tired of this no spending crap. They won’t sign anyone. They will lose the Central by over 15 games. You can’t just lose Heyward, Lynn, Lackey and not replace them and hope to win 100 games again (100 will be necessary to be in contention for the NL Central).
So embarrassing.
Don’t think the Cardinals will miss such a fair weather fan.
Have been a fan since 2003 when I can remember, so no, not a fair weather fan.
You were that Cardinal fan who said the sky was falling when Pujols took off for LA, right?
Nope, not at all, actually. Pujols had been declining and it was an entirely different situation given his age. Good try, fellow.
Embarrassing you call yourself a Cardinals fan. Keep the video game mentality going.
Sure thing, brother. There is zero “video game” mentality in my post. Cards have the money, they chose to not match a very reasonable (less than $200mm) offer from the Cubs. That is a failure on the part of the organization.
He didn’t want to play in STL. That hard to swallow?
No, STL didn’t give him the biggest offer. I am in zero way mad at Heyward and I put zero belief in the idea that “real baseball players will take a discount to play in Busch because it is baseball heaven.” <- that is BFIB trash. You take the money, it's not at all unreasonable.
Dude.. take a Xanax. We won 100 game on pitching last year remember? Oh and they will also be getting Wainwright back as well. Cardinals will probably (and should have) spend less money on Gordon, Upton, or Cespedes.. and should go out and get a solid pitcher like Wei-Yin Chen. They wont just call it an offseason after this. If anything it would fuel them more to spend now that Heyward in on the Goats. Take a deep breath ha ha
Even if you’re a Cardinal fan wouldn’t it be cool to see three teams win a Series in your lifetime that billions of people came and went and never saw? Seeing the White Sox and Red Six win a series was cool as a baseball fan. But seeing the Cubs do it in my lifetime would be awesome. My grandfather and dad both won’t get that chance as they’ve come and gone. Would be a special thing to see in all of our lifetimes. No matter who your team is, seeing these long streaks end is pretty awesome as a baseball fan.
I don’t disagree with this. Living in Chicago and being a Cardinals fan will make it a bit harder, but yeah, I don’t disagree.
Seeing these long streaks end is not awesome to me. The Red Sox lost a lot of their appeal to non-Red Sox/Yanks fans as soon as the curse was over and became exactly like the Yanks. The White Sox were always overshadowed by the Cubs and a lot of people probably didn’t even know their streak was that long. The Cubs have one thing going for them right now, lovable losers. If they win one, that is gone and they will turn into just another big market bully. I’m sure that wouldn’t matter to Cubs fans right now, but that’s just because they can’t envision a world where they are treated just like the Dodgers of the world.
“Boo hoo, we’re not lovable losers anymore…what’s that you say, we’re winners?? Man, I wish it was like the old days.”
Said no Cubs fan ever.
-C
Ill agree with this if you feel the same about the St. Louis Blues..
Sox*
Most of what I have seen suggests it was Heyward or nothing. “We” did not win anything – you and I are not a part of the Cardinals. We are just fans.
Suggesting that someone not needing a prescription take prescription drugs is concerning.
Quick! Call the cops! Conservative Cards fans… smh.
Would love to know what is conservative about my post. Very curious. Thanks.
Yeah because the Wainwrightless 2015 Cards staff was packed with future HOFers like the 90s Braves… The team won 100 games with relatively undistinguished arms. The defense was a huge factor. Heyward was their best defender. Make some conclusions.
Now who was that big signing the Cardinals did last year, leading up to 100 wins? Oh right.. there wasn’t one. The Cardinals rely on their farm and only use free agency to augment that. They don’t do big, splashy signings. You as a Cardinal fan (laughable) should know this.
Sound logic here. Perhaps Matt has spent too much time in Chicago.
Right, because they can replace Heyward, Lynn, Lackey all internally. Your logic is laughable.
Sigh..Lackey is a no.3 pitcher. Ya, his ERA was under 3 but he out pitched his FIP enormously. Look at the guys history and age. He isn’t going to do that again. There are plenty of pitchers on the market to..AUGMENT..their team. They will do it again. Their system IS good enough to absorb Lynn, you freaken’ genius. As for Heyward, there are already presently outfield talent that just came up from your farm. I never said the Cardinals won’t feel the losses. But they can absorb them.
I’m not even a Cards fan and I know your team better. You start following baseball yesterday or something?
Don’t worry Cards fans. I won’t judge you by those special people who say they follow your team
Why did your argument jump to an ad hominem argument? I’ll refrain from insulting you personally.
Lance Lynn 2015 fWAR: 3.1
John Lackey 2015 fWAR: 3.6
Jason Heyward 2015 fWAR: 6.0
Lackey of last year must be replaced, not the future value of Lackey in 2016. 12.7 wins are gone with their departures. True, if Lackey returned he doesn’t give you a full 3.6 fWAR again, but he brings you closer than Tim Cooney/Tyler Lyons/Marco Gonzales (Alex Reyes is too far off with his suspension to be more than a September bullpen piece, realistically).
No, you do not know more about the Cardinals than I do.
Wow, it was such a struggle to insult you personally… but I made it!
To not** insult you! Whoops.
That big huge outside the organization acquisition that pushed them to 100 wins wasn’t a signing… it was the trade for Jason Heyward.
No worries. Maybe they will get league avg performance from Leake.
When will Mo held accountable dor always being outbid
Signings like this are ownership level, not entirely Mo’s call.
I was really hoping he would go to the Cardinals or Angels. As a Brave fan, I wouldn’t want him going to Nats for sure, but I do hate the f’n Cubs. I got my family to thank for that. Oh well…. They probably wayyyy over paid.
Awesome news. Now the Cardinals can focus on bringing in a power hitter.
Well, goodbye Arrieta in two years. But for now, welcome Jason!
There are reports saying 6/190
You really believe a team would pay someone like him over 30 million per year? That was from a fake account.
The way this offseason has been, it wouldn’t shock me to see it
Waste of money
Angels dodged a bullet!
Morosi said they aren’t done and are now trying to trade for a SP
The Cubs are so dumb. They have tons of young OF talent and they choose to spend around $200MM on Heyward? Thats laughable. I mean as a Cardinals fan I am glad we didn’t over spend for him.
Bitter, Party of one…
Not at all. Didn’t want him for anything over $150MM. Too rich for what he brings beyond that. Cards have money to spend and need a potent bat in the lineup. That is their biggest need. Cubs have lots of bats so the signing makes more sense for them in that sense, but just not a player they needed. he won’t hold up in center field.
Ya, he won’t hold up in CF. I can see how you got that from the 10 times he played that position last year.
Come on, don’t be that fan that overreacts and attempts to diminish a player because your team didn’t resign him
Must of missed that NLCS. Who’s their OF talent again? Warbird, Coghlan, Soler? Almora who’s not ready to come up yet. Alcantra is hit or miss.
As a Cubs fan I also didn’t know how I would feel and now I am glad. Heyward was not signed for $200 million, he will have been signed for a certain $20something million per year. When the business side of baseball projects future yearly revenues they will profit from Jason Heyward. They wouldn’t sign him if he was negative value to the team, their only risk was being outbid and someone agreeing to pay to the point where Heyward is a negative addition (financially). Sans St. Louis, no team in baseball could have made more money off of Jason Heyward’s presence than the Cubs, and I will buy a jersey and I will pay for playoff tickets and I will try my best to create ritual with him from the right field bleachers year in and out.
The part of the $200 million that comes out of the Cubs fans pockets is going to be money we choose to spend because we are proud of and excited for our team for many years. This signing came at the expense of nothing else other than instead of a miniature drone, I’m getting a new Cubs jersey for Christmas.
Are jerseys already out? I’ll just buy the T shirt version off Addison for $12 like I get all my other shirts. That’s the whole thing I choose to support the Cubs as my home town team. It’s like going to a movie. It’s a few hours of entertainment from my stressful life. Between kids, bills, work a few hours to go to 10-15 games a season are just like any other entertainment. If I go to the movies, buy a book or watch television. I’m paying for those things as well. Take baseball for what it is. It’s a few hours of me taking some time off from the hectic things in our lives. That’s all it is.
Cubs fans just got better entertainment options! 3D Heyward accessibility! New features!! Improved defensive mobility!!! Re-engineered batting order!!!! First time available Featurette before the season on Cards fans bemoaning and groaning NO EXTRA FEE!
now deal soler to the redsox for JBJ
Booooooooooooooom! You’re move St Louis –
now the Cards will focus on Alex Gordon. i still hope Gordon ends up in San Fran tho.
More than likely Chris Davis I’d imagine
Or Upton. I don’t think the Cardinals are high on Gordon.
They should be
they should not be high on Gordon. a very average player whose price tag is too high.
World series or bust for Cubs this year.
Not really. They’re still super young and still HAVEN’T struck their TV deal yet. Payroll is going to just steadily increase the next 4 seasons or so until 2020 when the money floodgates should bust open on an new tv deal and potential for the Cubs own network. Which is perfect timing because all these young players they have currently will be due extensions around that time. So they’ll be able to retain talent and supplement/add talent via Free Agency without sacrificing prospects. Cubs have added a #3 SP, a 2Bman, and a stellar OFer this offseason and have given up 0 prospects, and kind of added an intriguing young-ish pitcher in Warren in the Castro deal. If Warren is transitioned to a full time starter, I think he has the potential to be a lesser Arrieta 2.0. He has WAY better stats than Arrieta had when he came over at roughly the same age. I think the Warren add might be the one people talk about the most in 2-3 years. VERY underrated I think. 3.39 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 1.24 WHIP, 289+ IP. Not too shabby. Especially being in the AL. Coming to the NL those number *should* dip even lower a bit. He has been a much better reliever than a starter, but Bosio has worked his black magic on pitchers before so why not again here, haha. Samardzija was a potential Ace with Bosio….. fell apart when he left. Arrieta went from throw in player in a trade to Cy Young winner…. and since becoming a Cub has been VERY Cy Young caliber even before this year. Jason Hammel has resurrected his career in Chicago. Warren has serious potential all in his own right, but even more coming to Chicago with Bosio.
Also, with the addition of Heyward, they’ve only added 2 old players this offseason in Zobrist and Lackey. Lackey is just a spot filler for possibly Pierce Johnson or some other free agent in another couple years. Zobrist is a slight upgrade at 2B over Castro, but he too is a place holder for Gleyber Torres who is only 19 here in a couple days). Heyward….. is a 26 year old who is just as “old” as Rizzo…. he fits in with the rest of the youth laden Cubs.
Bottom line…… great day to be a Cubs fan.
Yeah, a team with a bunch of young players is ws or bust this year…
YES!!!!!
CF Heyward
2B Zobrist
1B Rizzo
3B Bryant
RF Schwarber
LF Soler
C Montero
SS Russell
Potentially one of the most lethal lineups in the game. Nearly all of them have or have the potential to be 20+ HR hitters if not more. All of them minus Montero and Schwarber (and maybe Soler due to leg issues) have some decent speed with 2 of them having potential 20+ SB speed in Heyward and Russell. Zobrist, Rizzo, Bryant, and maybe Soler have 10-15 SB speed. That’s maybe 80 SBs from this lineup…. maybe more, and about 170-180 HRs from these 8 alone as well……. NASTY. Also, the top FIVE in the lineup could combine for a .360+ OBP, with (Heyward .359 OBP, Zobrist .359 OBP, Rizzo .387, Bryant .369 OBP, Schwarber .355 OBP…. in 2015). Mmm mmm MMMMMMM!! If Soler remains on the team and stays healthy all year could see like 120-130 RBIs with all those dudes getting on base in front of him.
Rizzo has the potential to break his wrist in the first month of the season with how he crowds the plate. Enjoy your off season championship I guess?
Thank you. Very insightful comment. The player who lead the the league in HBP could break his wrist. Must have put a lot of thought into that.
you should be banned for all those insults
Keep on commenting like this and I’ll report you to the people who run this place. Don’t be calling out others just because you don’t like what they are saying.
I supposed he can be excused if he missed the point of your comment, as he was probably stunned by your impeccable etiquette, flawless syntax, and rhetorical wizardry.
You clearly understand sarcasm Neikro. Making fun of a terrible disorder. Really classy of you.. How hold are you, 12? I was simply responding to your spiteful comment.
Seeing as how they’re redesigning the commenting system, this seems like an appropriate time to request a ‘Flag Comment’ option. Name-calling–especially in this manner–should not be tolerated here.
No, it was a pretty straightforward comment actually. Will Rizzo keep getting upset about the HBP when he’s standing on the plate?
Any one can get injured any one can slump that is why no one has ever won a championship in December.
130 RBi’s for Soler coming up though
Sorry for being excited about watching a 97-win team make headline-grabbing moves… Our mistake.
signing Josh Hamilton was a headline grabbing move for the Angels.
Congratulations on the great pick up! I’m hoping for a Red Sox / Cubs World Series.
Winning takes all the pressure off and your Cubs will experience this soon. So many people ask if I hate the Yankees. I don’t wish them any bad will at all. They have nothing to do with my team anymore. Winning helped me with that. I enjoy baseball so much more now and I hope you will also.
I’m living the Price signing by Boston. It’s not my money and they want to win. It’s exciting to be Red Sox and/or Cubs fans right now!
Teheran and Inciarte for Soler, Baez, and pitcher…
No, thanks.
Keep dreaming. Inciarte sucks compared to Baez or Soler.
No, he really doesn’t.
Agree with Joe but Cubs need Baez for utility. I’d like them to keep Soler, too, but if a good SP is available, then okay.
Haha
He must have not like playing in St. Louis .
Or….he just likes money better.
+1
-1 🙁
Nats reportedly offered more money.
Heyman tweets that stl offer was more 🙁
I’m curious to see what stl offered. A local radio show in stl said last week Heyward and Lackey both didn’t like Matheny. Who knows how true that is but an interesting thought especially if the offers were comparable.
I’m torn on the move,but the Cardinals now get both the Cubs 1st and 2nd round picks in next year draft.Signing both Lackey,and Heyward?
Not how comp picks work
No they just get comp picks between 1st and 2nd rounds. They are technically low 1st round picks. Cubs lose their pick and Fowler comp pick when he signs.
I thought they both had qualifying offers..and turned them down…Is why I brought it up
Yes Cards get comp picks for the QO players, but the Cubs picks just disappear.
#Cubs have had trade dialogue with #Padres (Tyson Ross) and #Indians (Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar), sources say.
as good as Schwarber is, if you’re going to spend this much on a guy who a lot of his value is tied up in his defense, does it make sense to have Schwarber out in left or trying to catch where he kills you defensively? with Heyward and Rizzo as left handed bats, I think they try to trade him instead of Soler now, especially since he can bring back more.
I think that’s why they’re trying hard to get a defensive wiz in center to
compensate for having Schwarber in left.
Wouldn’t be surprised to see them going after Enciarte now.
If you’re trying to win… why would you trade Schwarber when he’s a big reason you think you can win now?The obvious trade candidate is Soler. Huge value based on potential.
that’s a lot of money for the 4th best hitter on your team.
i was kind of hoping the Nats would screw up and sign him, but so be it.
Yeah, who needs defense or OBP? Hur hur, ribbies, hur hur dingers.
When Jason Heyward is the 4th best hitter on your team, you’re in extremely good shape.
Happy to have the player, but man, I bet his contract is going to make me cry.
I would rather have Cargo -way better bat -more power.Get it done Rizzo
and then watch Cargo’s stats fall out of Coors.
Just like Matt Holliday’s did, right??
-C
Look at Cargo’s road stats.
He’s still above-average on the road, even with the reverse Coors effect. Holliday was much worse on the road than at home when he was a Rockie as well. So was Fowler.
These players turn out just fine when they leave…their home splits significantly decrease and their road splits significantly increase. It ends up balancing out, because it’s not the player causing the huge splits, it’s the stark difference in environment.
Everyone looks at Rockies road stats and get all scared without understanding what’s going on. Which is fine, if you want to be uninformed.
-C
CarGo is a 332 hitter at coors with far more HS’s and RBI at home and on the road. Holliday has been decent with STL but no where near the hitter he was with the Rocks. Tulo didn’t do that much offensively for the Jays after being traded last year. Want to bring up Helton, Galaraga, Bichette, Walker, Castilla, Burks road vs Denver stats? Not close. Vinnie was a 40HR a year guy with Colorado. He went to several other teams in his prime after that and put up mediocre numbers. At the age of 35, he went back to Coors and was 35-131.
That’s pretty awful analysis, Lance.
No one’s debating that Coors inflates basic stats. I mean, there’s a humidor for a reason. What is being debated is how players in their prime, or close to it, perform after having been with the Rockies.
So let’s look at the stats three years during/after the Rockies, and let’s use ballpark-adjusted figures to eliminate the Coors inflation.
Holliday (2006-08, Rockies; 2009-11, A’s/Cards): wRC+ of 144 with Rockies, 148 with A’s/Cards. Holliday was better post-Coors.
Fowler: 110 wRC+ in final three seasons with Rockies, 116 wRC+ in two years (sorry, there’s only two years of data here) with Astros/Cubs.
When it comes to ballpark-adjusted stats, which are far more accurate in ascertaining value than simply using HRs and RBIs, they’re actually better players.
Now, I can go into all the details of Reverse Coors Effect, but it’s going to take a lot of words and you may not understand them anyway, since you’re still living under a rock where players are evaluated by superficial means. So we’ll leave it here and you can pathetically rebuke my data all you like, to no statistical avail.
-C
Dang -C, that’s really insightful. I’m not being sarcastic or kidding or anything. You can say I’m living under a rock, I don’t care, but I’ve seriously never considered what you’re saying…(I have a few brewskis in me)…What you’re kind of saying is that 1) obviously coors inflates stats-nobody is arguing that but, more importantly
2) the Rockies players get used to playing 81 games in a place where a slider/curve/2 seamer/change do something “different” than all the other 29 parks. Then when they go on the road, that difference “screws” them up. Once they are on a different team, they get used to the difference (which is no longer a difference).
I had high hopes the Rockies would get Crush and we could see a 70 HR season. He’s on the fantasy squad for cheap. But fantasy aside, I wish they would scrap the new pitching idea and just outslug everyone. Games will last 5 hours, but they will be very entertaining.
Interesting, but park adjusted stats are basically the same pre- and post Coors.for Fowler and Holliday.
Even with 40 HRs in 2015, Cargo is past his prime at this point and is probably just slightly higher than average on offense for a corner outfielder. He’s 50-50 in being worth his contract for its last two years and would probably be a disappointment to the fans of the team where he may be traded..
-C….well golly gee….lord almighty, how did baseball ever get along without stats like WAR, WRC..etc…? We had no way of knowing guys like Musial, Mays, Mantle, Spahn, Koufax were great players! Yes, Holliday has done well in STL, but he was putting up GREAT numbers with the Rocks. Fowler is a poor example to use because he was never a great hitter in Denver! But I can hold up Vinne Castilla—a third baseman who was putting up Mike Schmidt type numbers as a member of the Rocks but was just Todd Zeile outside of Denver. We’ll see how well Tulo does in Toronto but this past year, he hit 300 for the Rocks and only 239 for the Jays. Now…please excuse me cause breakfast is about to be served here in the old folks home. Enjoy life in your Mom’s basement!
Rough offseason for redbird fans so far. Biggest rival poached an estimated 8 WAR from them (16 WAR swing).
I know it’s not relevant right now, but for those interested, the Cubs no longer get a pick for Fowler cause they signed Lackey and Heyward
well, we either give up our 2nd round pick or the Fowler comp pick.. So, we would get our 2nd round pick back.
soler and russell for harvey
No, thank you.
u seem to be a good gm cubbies shuld sign u up sherlock
Alcantra for Syndergaard
no way. i dont think noahs available and if he was ull need a lot more
I guess I should have made it more ridiculous so you’d get the sarcasm.
harveys a top 7 pitcher in baseball. whos under control for three more yrs. after seeing what shelby got he should get at least that
Agree to disagree on the top 7, and I wouldn’t base a trade market on what has pretty universally been considered a moronic trade.
Ross for DeGrom straight up win-win.
Not Ross! Lester will need to be committed.
Russel is worth two Harveys.
What!?!? I’m a Braves fan and so don’t even have an emotional investment in this and still, I’m looking for an emoticon or something to react big enough to this silly trade idea.
In a serious mind set, what would Teheran be able to bring back from the Cubs now?
If they were to package something like Teheran and a prospect? Could that obtain McKinney and another piece?
as a mets fan i could tell u tehran is good. very good. while he may be a jerk he should bring back quite a haul
Yes, Mckinney and Corey Black.
This is a huge miss by the cards. Not because they didn’t resign Heyward, I’m about 50/50 on that, but because of the price they paid to get 1 year of him from Atl. The Dbacks just paid a kings ransom to get Shelby from Atl, and now the Cards are left with a comp pick. Cards still have massive holes and question marks in the lineup and rotation, and a comp pick isn’t going to fill any of them.
Not sure if this is poor negotiating or just Mo over assuming that we can extend our highest number and sign who we want, but something has to change if the Cards really expect to be able to sign a top of the market FA.
I wouldn’t worry about that comp pick. The Cards are going to end up losing that trying to keep up with the Cubs. Maybe they’ll keep Lackey’s.
-C
Mo should be embarrassed always being outbid. When is it ever gonna get old to management and him be held accountable. Gave up control of shelby miller for 1 yr of heyward. Look what the braves got in return for miller
I enjoyed J-Hey as a Cardinal but I’m glad they didn’t resign him. His offensive output can be easily replaced and spending around $200 million for a gold glove outfielder is a little crazy. I just wish he went somewhere besides the Cubs so I could actually root for him.
Good luck J-Hey and don’t throw any Cards players out at home.
Rumor has it they didn’t spend $200M. I think it has been said the Nationals were the ones who offered that but Heyward didn’t meet their response deadline demands so they dropped out of the bidding, which is why it was between the Cubs and Cards.
Hence why I said, “around $200 million”
Also, replacing GG defense with a guy who can hit .270…. .280…. heck even .290+ like Heyward did in 2015 who also gets on base at a .350-.360+ clip…… and steals 20+ bases…… and, IMO, has 20 HR power………… good luck. I bet Heyward returns to the 20-25 HR guy he was in the past now that he’s at Wrigley. If Fowler can hit 17 HRs as a Cub I think Heyward could hit 22-23…… at least. But that’s not why they got him nor wanted him. And it’s not why Cub faithful are thrilled they got him either. They got him because he kills 2 birds with one stone in that he can play CF and be the lead off hitter. They got him for his OBP and glove. The speed and power is just extra benefits…… that and the fact he is ONLY 26 years old for 2016. So again, good luck finding ALL that in 1 player.
The 20-25 HR guy he was in the past? He had one season of 27 HR. Take that season out of the equation and he has averaged 14 HR for his career. .290 Hitter? He hit .290 once. He is a career .268 hitter. He has stolen over 20 bases in a season, but he has averaged 14 SB. You had the OBP spot on at .353
Sounds like you’re overvaluing him just a little.
Look at Heyward’s HR in 2015. Total of 13, but just 4 after June 24. So while he could hit 20+ HR in 2016, he could also be in single digits.
alcantara hit .200 last yr. syndergaard pitched to a 3 5 era in 155 innings
He was joking
Cubs all in trying to buy that ring. Never works
They do win big signing this year and you come out with that?
Worked for the Yankees who have the most championships than all other sports.
Not to mention that this is really the only big money they have spent this offseason after making cost effective moves in other deals. The Cubs were already made the playoffs last year and now have added Heyward, Zobrist, and Lackey. Oh and by the way the pitcher the Cubs got for Castro for the Yankees is a really good long reliever and spot starter. The Cubs won the offseason with not losing a heck of a lot to do it.
And look at what the Yankees have done the past several years with all those big contracts. Just saying the last two championships have been won with low payrolls. Seems to be working for Royals and Giants. Just hate to see the Cubs with such young stars go this route.
The Cubs have to try their best now, because now is their best chance to win. The young guys are great, but we need pitching and defense. Guess what? That’s where they are spending their money.
That’s actually not really true. Their hitting failed them last year more than the pitching and defense (outside of Schwarber being atrocious on defense). They were one of the best pitching teams in the league last year and relatively average at hitting. They really just need the young hitters to keep developing at the plate and become more consistent more than anything.
The Giants had the 7th highest payroll in 2014. How is that a low payroll?
That last two titles were built off the backs of homegrown talent that were brought in either through drafting or by trading veteran talent — short of Heyward and Lester, that’s exactly what the Cubs have done… You’re paying attention to 2 players on a 25-man roster.
but hey – if saying the Cubs sucks is going to help you sleep better tonight, then go for it…
What are you Braves fans smoking? Soler for Inciarte? What a joke. What else besides Inciarte? That would be a huge downgrade offensively for the Cubs. The Cubs will win the division without making one more move. If they trade Baez or Soler it would only be for pitching.
Cubs won’t win the division. I say a close second.
Cubs now have the best team in baseball on paper
Yes, I’ll agree the games still need to be played.
I do like the fact that all three major acquisitions for the Cubs did well in the playoffs which may play a factor in making it to the next level. Even getting to a world series is a win for Cubs fans.
And now your 2015 World Series Champions…The Washington Nationals. Oh wait…
Soler is going to have 130 RBI’s in 2016 I don’t think he is available for any one not named Bryce Harper.
Yeah. I haven’t read that but if Braves are saying that they’re smoking something a tad too strong I think. Because the children in Arizona came into money and are spending it like a 16 year old valley girl at the mall, and trading players for players in the spotlight NOW, overpaid for Miller and my predicted 4.00 ERA from him in 2016 Braves fans think that all their trash is worth at least a high level prospect or 2, or a high ceiling super young ML player. Inciarte wasn’t worth for Soler in Arizona….. he is definitely still not worth Soler now that he’s on the black hole Braves. I feel bad for Freeman.
Would seem the Braves are the team with 100+ year drought
The Braves have been a great team for a long time.
They are screwed a bit by their TV contract but they are a good organization.
And how can you trash them for getting the most out of their players.
Please don’t comment at all if you can’t understand both sides of the equation.
And Nierko please don’t comment anymore
because you’re causing a lot of the hatred.
So the cubs won 97 games… knocked out the Cardinals in the playoffs… then upgraded with Lackey, Zobrist and Heyward while the Cardinals have lost Lackey, Heyward andLynn (though they do get Wainwright back) … but you’re right – the Cubs are probably just going to be a close second next year.
Well, don’t let the door hit you in the arse then J-Hey. Good player, no doubt, but in my opinion, not prudent to give him 200 mill+ and a loooong term contract. I guess maybe get Gordon now or see what the Rockies want for CarGo. I’d still kick the tires on Chris Davis as well.
Not bashing Heyward really, seems like a good fella and he has some skills, wish him well, except when he plays the Cards. When he plays us I hope he strikes out everytime of course.
Suck it up fellow Cards fans, I say we still win the N.L. central in 2016!
If I could get 180 million over 8 years you can shut a door on my arse too.
And i would! 🙂
Who gave him a $200 million contract?
When the Cubs were playing the Cards in the playoffs, Heyward was the one hitter in the lineup I was worried about. Glad to have him on the Cubs now.
you were the only one!
well, that’s an onion in the ointment.
Great for J-Hey and the Cubs. Bad for my birds. Oh well, that’s free agency. Cubs/Cardinals may ACTUALLY have a full-blown rivalry now that both teams are worth a damn. Have to say, though, that Epstein was on the money when he said that he was targeting 2016 to be the year.
It will be fun. The Cardinals now have an interesting choice: go after an outfielder or go after a first baseman. Put Piscotty in RF, Grichuk in CF, and Holliday in LF and you have a strong hitting outfield (assuming health). Do the Cardinals need to give up on Adams at 1B? Maybe, maybe not.
I say Cards now focus on depth and pitching help. Sucks to not have Heyward because then the focus is more on pitching. now the Cardinals need both again.
I’d like to see the Cards go and get Chris Davis for 1B and Mike Leake for the rotation and maybe another bullpen arm and call it a Winter.
Sources telling me Cubs to acquire ballpark village
You’re a good sport.
Done deals a done a deal.
Don’t like the dollars but hey it costs a lot to get anyone in the market today.
We have a team that’s locked up for years to come.
Now we can trade farm pieces for arms and a defensive center fielder.
I’d trade with the Braves if they’re willing to trade Enciarte but
would try calling up Boston as well to see if Jackie would cost less.
Love Jed and Theo so much.
Hope they stay around a while and look over what they’ve created.
Best fans in baseball right there, folks…
Lets examine what the Cubs have done so far: they signed a 37 year old pitcher, a 36 year old utility infielder and a guy who has hit over 20 HR’s in his career just once in his life to huge contracts. Maybe they can still get Milton Bradley! 🙂
Except Zobrist isn’t 36.
A valuable argument is well aligned . notice how he changed the reason the third signing was bad from age to homer qualifications. If I’d like to I can point one bad thing about every one of the members from Destiny’s Child… but I won’t because there are so many more voluptuously pleasant and pleasing things.
Cubs signed an above average pitcher to slot in the average pitcher spot, a switch-hitting super-utility man with great contact and defense, and a guy to play outfield who has only once hit over 21 home runs but has never had over 21 whiskey sours on a team travel day.
see I can do it too!
This is the first time I’ve seen Destiny’s Child used to legitimize a free agent acquisition. Thank you.
Where’s your blog, man? I want to read it.
I’m a firm believer in ” you Let yourself get offended by my comments”and ” you have the right to not get offended by what I say ” approach; but that wasn’t very classy Niekro. Not classy at all.
Jason Heyward, may I introduce you to Carl Crawford, circa 2010.
This guy is the Rorschach test for WAR. If you believe in that stat you love the signing, if not then you hate the signing. Personally, I can’t see how his defense is worth that much money considering his offense is good not great.
I Forsure agree with you I believe he is a consistent .260 – .270 hitter with some pop that will give you 16-20 hr and a probably in the Cubs lineup a 70-80 rbi but I personally wouldn’t have spent this amount on a guy for his defensive attributes because I kinda feel the Cubs are betting on him some better offensive numbers while he hits hits prime but overall I like the signing and don’t at the same time while I believe he possibly can get them over the hump and be the spark to the plug or just another big figure guy who isn’t worth it in the long run….
Before all the imbeciles started rambling on about WAR stats a few years ago, it was all about AVG, HR, RBI and how good someone played defense. I’m glad the Cubs got Heyward because I think he makes them better, but he is way overvalued because the hypothetical prediction model stats that rarely pan out, work for Heyward because he slightly above avg. in all categories. In reality he won’t hit over .300, he won’t hit 25 HR, he won’t get 100 RBI, and .360 OBP is okay but not great! .380 . According to the modern stats Barry Bonds should have made over 60 million a year even before the steroids, along with every other 5 tool player who was far and away better than Heyward.
LOL at all the Red Sox fans badmouthing Theo. Y’all were all on his junk after you won your first title. You’ve won mutiple titles due to his direction and you think the Cubs Nation wouldn’t be happy with just one of those? I’m 38 years old and would drive an El Camino the rest of my life if I knew they would win a title in my lifetime.
Good job by the Cubs brass…I have a feeling they’re not done yet.
I’m a Sox fan and have no problem with how Theo has been running the Cubs. He has certainly made them (the Cubs) a better team each year.
Strong starting pitching. Awesome lineup with lots of power. Very strong bullpen. And still many young players yet to reach their prime potential. If the Cubs are to ever end their championship draught, the next few years are the best chance they will ever get.
Heyward should give Baseball Reference a commission. No way he gets that kind of deal (even accounting for inflation) 10 years ago in the “time before WAR”.
Yep. WAR is a real cash cow for players. That said, teams in MLB are flush with cash and can spend at the funny money level without blinking. Heyward is a damn good player and will help the Cubs, but his worth as a baseball player should not be well over $20 million a year.
So true. He hit the jackpot because he is a good defender and just slightly above average in all other categories.
Don’t you think all the teams have their own statistical models to calculate player value? They’re not just using WAR, UZR, etc. but also some of their own proprietary modeling.
I don’t know. Do you?
Its too bad they didn’t keep Fowler though. They could have platooned Soler and Schwarber in LF, kept Heyward in RF, and have Baez spot start at 2B and SS.
Soler and Schwarber are way too valuable at hitting to be part-time platoon players. That would be a terrible idea.
Why would it be a terrible idea for the Cubs? If they get a CF one them is going to be traded anyway because there would be no room for both in the lineup.. May as well have Schwarber face the righties and maximize their offense. I say it is a great idea.
I so, so admire your long posts and stream-of-consciousness ramblings. They’re a welcomed digression from the strings of “lols” or “stupid [insert GM here].” I absolutely disagree with just about everything you say, but I still like to read it.
You’re a better man than me, goatee.
Where’s that ‘like’ button when you need it?
Wow. On this thread earlier I predicted 8/180 with an opt-out after the 5th year. Looks like there are two opt-outs, and the first one is after three years?! Interesting.
I was wondering why he signed for so little. Now we have our answer Two opt outs? One after 3 years? That’s ridiculously valuable for him,.
Dear Cardinal fans:
Stop being so salty it isn’t cute. If he has signed with you we all know you would say the opposite but seeing how the cubs made a smart decision yall salty. He doesnt hit for power but guess what?! Cubs got power as it is this will help them defensively and he could hit. Not everyone needs to hit 300. So enjoy doing nothing this off-season.
Salty? Look in a mirror. You got Heyward, congrats. Maybe you will get some pitching to go with your lineup. Maybe all of your young studs will continue to get better without any injuries or struggles. I say, lets see how the season plays out. You don’t win the world series in December, so lets not be so quick to crown a champ.
Not a cubs fan. Look at all the comments from the Card fans here, you’ll see two things. A. Them being salty over not keeping him and losing him to the cubs and secondly and then taking shots at his power. Cubs doesn’t need him to hit 30+Hr as long as he hits, plays good defense their good to go. Plus, they have young talent they can use to get pitching during the season.
I’m with Keyboard, and not a Cub fan either. Cardinal fans are just trying to rain on their parade because they feel an immediate threat. It’s easy to say “y’all paid too much” and “this is going to backfire in 7 years blah blah blah” but fans don’t truly care about 7 years from now. If it does backfire, Cubs have the resources (money, and a lot of it) to fix it.
At this moment, Cardinal fans feel that little brother is turning into big brother, and they are trying to bully little bro. If the Brewers signed Heyward there would be far fewer comments because the Brewers don’t pose an immediate threat. If Cardinal fans weren’t feeling threatened there would be no need to undercut the Cub fans’ positive vibes. I guess it’s just a natural comfort mechanism for us fans.
With that said, Elias has one of the more reasonable Cardinal comments on here.
Thank you and also thanks to the other reasonable comments on this board. I am a Cardinals fan and I would have loved if we got Heyward.
That being said, I think the deal could be reasonable because of the opt outs. I believe that with Heyward’s skill set, he is a real risk to decline quickly after age 30, but I think he will be great for the first few years and then if he opts out, you might consider letting him walk.
The point that I made before was really to say lets not lump all fans together. Every team has great knowledgeable fans and some fans who are not as reasonable. In addition, it is important to remember that anything can happen in a season. I have witnessed my team barely make the playoffs and win the world series. Then I have seen them dominate a season and struggle in the playoffs.
All in all, I think the Central is going to be a great race and could see multiple playoff teams again. I am also glad that the cubs/cards are both good because it improves the rivalry and hopefully both teams can use that to profit and stay competitive. I think both teams have great front offices.
100% agree. Dodger fans did same thing to Ariz. St. L lost Lackey and Heyward, now they back to square one and players are running out. Your not getting Cuteo so forget it. I doubt Davis signs with St. Louis. Right now I see the Cubs, Arz, and Mets and only because of Young pitching making the Playoffs. The Wild Card will be determined, by what happens this Winter. You got Dodgers, Giants, St.L, Pitt, and the hard winter charging Nashionals, someone sitting home. I have a feeling St.L is on the bubble but never count the Cards out.
Winning free agency does not always equate to winning the world series. It can help, but it is a long season and many things can happen. If you go by pitching how can you discount the Cards? They have tons of pitching and stud young pitchers to be specific. I wouldn’t be so quick to predict playoffs based on free agency. Also, I don’t think the Cards necessarily need to sign one of the big leftovers to get there. If I were to predict the playoffs now, I would say that the contenders, in no particular order, are: Pirates, Cards, Cubs, Dodgers, Dbacks, Mets, & Giants (even year). Some of those teams will underachieve and there will likely be a surprise contender. I still think the Central will be a beast of a division.
David…careful. You’re giving internet chat a bad name by being reasonable and thoughtful with your comments! LOL I’ve been a Cards fan since I grew up watching Musial and frankly, I’m not seeing a big loss with Heyward—-especially at that price. A couple key injuries here and there and the Cards could be toast but that’s the same for ANY team in sports. Getting Price would have been nice but the Red Sox decided they REALLY wanted him. I was sorry to see Pujols go but in reality, it turned out good because Albert has not come close to the numbers in LA that he put up in STL and the Cards have done very well without him. The Cards success is based on their farm system. Same with every other team, though. KC and the Mets got to the WS with mostly home-grown products.
JimmyJack…..we Cardinals fans have been hearing the same type of boasts from Cub fans for many years. Yet, we’ve been able to enjoy many trips to the playoffs and WS. There were many Redbird fans who did whine about losing Pujols. I just don’t see that with Heyward. The two aren’t even close in comparison. Jason is a nice player and more power to him that he could land that big contract. But the stats don’t say he’s a great player. One day it’s bound to happen the Cubs will get to the WS and maybe even win. But until then, continue to blame Steve Bartman.
Soler, McKinney, Johnson, Underwood and Vogelbach for Sale or Gray, whoever excepts first. Boom!
You are on serious drugs man.. No player in the league would be worth that, not even Harper.
Not enough for Sale or Gray and I’m a Cubs fan.
Who wants to be that Alex Rodriguez has a better year next year than Jason Heyward? Such a Cubs move to pay a guy who has a career OPS of .784 over $20 million a year.
Arod has not defensive value.
People can’t talk all they want about defense not mattering
but look at the Royals and how they got it done.
Yep, and all of those players on the Royals are cheap. The Royals win by letting players go when their pricetag exceeds their value. Only the Cubs would pay $20 million a year for good defense.
The Royals did great last year, but their road to the World Series championship probably had the least resistance in the history of baseball. Not to mention it was one of the worst World Series to watch ever..hence the terrible ratings.
My greater point is that if the Cubs win the World Series, it most likely won’t have much to do with Jason Heyward. The Cubs’ obvious area of need is still pitching, so they go out and spend $184 million a year on a player who in a best case scenario is the next Andrew McCutchen but who could just as easily be the next Nick Markakis or Carl Crawford.
Except we’re not talking about a gold glove shortstop who can’t hit. Heyward has always had an above average bat and he’s young enough that improvement can not only be hoped for but actually has a decent chance of happening.
Sure it could happen, but based on his hitting number from the past few years he could just as easily be the next Nick Markakis. There’s a reason the Braves traded him and there’s a reason the Cardinals let him go. Granted the Cubs have more fiscal might than either of those teams.
@niched, I really don’t like that this new commenting system limits a thread.
You are right, the Cubs are gambling. But even if Heyward has offensively peaked this isn’t as bad of a deal as some are making it out to be. On top of that the Cubs do appear to have the financial resources that if this does turn out to be a bad move won’t cripple them.
Do you not see that there aren’t any more impactful FA pitchers out there?
They got the best out there.
Look at the FA class of 2017 there aren’t many guys out there as well.
Now they have right field locked up and have the flexibility to deal Soler who the Braves covet.
Theo and Jed aren’t done yet.
Watch them get Inciarte and Teheran from the Braves.
That’s not how they win.
They win with good defense.
Money doesn’t have anything to do with how they do on the field.
Nice try.
Wow, I love the absurd. You win!
So Theo Epstein signed Carl Crawford prior to the 2011 season, and didn’t have second thoughts about signing Heyward? Interesting.
I’d like this deal a lot better if I thought they were signing the Heyward that walked 90 times in his rookie season. Seems like a lot to pay for a guy with limited power due to the hitch in his swing, who will only decline in SB and fielding ability as he gets closer to 30.
This is likely just a 3-year deal, though — so the Crawford comp doesn’t work.
Crawford comp does not work at all.
He was 30 when he got the contract.
He did learn and he signed a younger man.
Way Overpaid…. I know he’s young and good defender… But Wow.. That amount outrageous… So imagining how much Harper will get when he hits FA
Yes, a couple more MVP caliber seasons and Dave Stewart will bankrupt the DBacks to get him. That is, if he hasn’t been fired yet.
Then, on the other hand, it is possible that they do win it all. You never know.
I am sorry, but Jason Heyward does not warrant $23 million annually for the next 8 years. He is NOT an elite player, and that is elite player money. Dont get me wrong, he’s a solid player, but not worth 184 million.
.286. , 16, 86 is not 23 million dollars a year stats.
Its free agency someone will get overpaid but guess what? Cubs have enough power on their lineup getting Heyward was a smart deal as they lacked good defense last year.
Glad he got the opt-outs, and I sincerely hope he takes them. I’m happy to have Heyward for 3 years, but 8 and $184MM will be awful. Here’s hoping he performs well enough to make opting out an easy decision.
To all you think I’m don’t know what I’m talk about . Let see what next season brings . You at all just about the now . Before you all rip me you all better reliaze what future holds . You all will realize a year or two from now that I do know what I’m talk about and how little you all know. And I will be the one laughing a year from now when you all realize what I know now .
Everybody get that???….good!
Will you learn English in that span of time?
Maybe don’t start hitting the bottle in the early afternoon before getting on the interwebz.
The Cubs are essentially gambling that his offensive potential catches up with his defensive skills. That said, Heyward is only 26 and a defensive whiz, so overall it’s hard not to like this deal for the Cubs at $23M a year.
My only question now is what is the Cubs upper limit on payroll in the future. According to cot’s they’re already committing over $105M on 2017 and that’s just 7 contracts and none of them are named Jake Arrieta.
Cubs have Jake for two more years. They’ll cross that bridge then.
True. But in 2017 when you add in a conservative estimates for arb raises they may not have a lot of money to make improvements if things go badly.
I’d imagine they have almost $0. But they do have people that should be ready by 2017 to fill in or they can trade for replacements. The team is built with a good amount of depth though, so I’d find it kinda hard to imagine that they’d really need to turn to FA, especially with the 2016 class being bad.
Ok then, it sounds like a non-issue or a relatively minor one.
~150m from what I can tell with the way they’ve spoken and operated, but that changes in 2019..
Those scrappy Cubs
Every other comment is about a Soler trade all week. Unless the Cubs are not planning to put Heyward in CF, then he isn’t going anywhere. If the Cubs do go out and get a CF, then he would only be traded for a very good pitcher. Soler is definitely a future All Star, and should not be discussed in useless trades unless it is at least for the caliber of say Carrasco from Cleveland.
Correct. If Soler is traded the Cubs are dumber than I thought. I already despise the Castro trade.
I think Zobrist brings some defense and OBP to the mix, but otherwise not much better option than Castro or Baez at 2B so I kind of agree with you on that one. Zobrist does bring a championship with him though and hopefully that experience pays off in the postseason.
He’s also far more consistent…With where they are on the win curve, you can’t go into this season with the wildcard of castro being a 3war player or a negative.
I would have preferred Castro over Zobrist, too, but Cubs did get a good undervalued pitcher in Warren. Cubs were leery of whether Good Starlin or Bad Starlin would show up. Zobrist should be okay the first couple years of the contract.
Looking at his production and his weight going the wrong way.
Castro was destined to go out the door.
No one doubts Soler’s upside as a hitter but
he’s not by any stretch of the imagination a good glove.
I’d have no problem with Jed and Theo trading him and a couple of guys
for the likes of Ender Inciarte and Julio Teheran.
Wouldn’t want them trading Baez if not anyone else because
he’s the guy who’s one of a kind in a sense that
you can’t find a second baseman hitting 37 homeruns in a
single season even in the minors.
The only thing I can see Soler being moved for is another starter. It wouldn’t be dumb necessarily, especially if they get a competent starter out of it. Sign someone defense oriented to play alongside Schwarber, Heyward, Baez. Its not going to kill the lineup. Its already stacked up and down.
I was surprised too. I thought the Cubs could have gotten a bit more for Castro
If he had Russell/Simmons glove + that contract they would have.
Liarkaka, Castro far better than Simmons by any comprehensive measure,
Lol hi trademeister
DIdn’t you just claim that you knew stuff?? Why prove yourself wrong this quickly??
-C
bwahahahaha!!!! wait, you are serious? Castro’s glove better than Simmons? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! man, that’s funny
They might have gotten more if they packaged him up with some others to San Diego, but would have taken a lot more to get Tyson off their hands.
The Yankees are on the hook for Starlin’s $38MM contract. Judging from the last three seasons, it’s 50-50 whether Castro will be worth it.
I think my Cub fan brethren are possibly undervaluing the potential Adam Warren has. In only 289+ MLB IP he has put up solid number as a SP/RP in NY. Granted he has better numbers as a reliever than starter, but he still has potential to become a solid starter. He has waaaaaay better numbers than Arrieta had when he left the Orioles. I’m not saying Warren is a future Cy Young winner like Arrieta now is (and has been a Cy Young caliber pitcher since putting on a cub uniform…. he had a 2.81 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in the 34 starts in 208.1 IP he had as a Cub before the 2015 season, so it’s not like he *just* became insanely awesome for the Cubs in 2015). Coming to the NL can only help Warren’s numbers. Again, he has been a waaaay better reliever in NY than a starter, but even in the 20 starts as a Yankee he still has better numbers than Arrieta did in Baltimore granted in way fewer starts and innings as a starter. With Bosio and his black magic working on pitchers for the last few years I don’t think it is crazy to think Warren can become a SOLID middle of the rotation pitcher and maybe even better. Fangraphs has a pretty solid scouting report on him they posted pre-2015 season and it is pretty promising….. They say he has the makeup and pitch options similar to that of Greinke…… but also say he could be a Kevin Corriea type pitcher. Their “middle ground” is a Matt Cain or Homer Bailey-type pitcher…… I’ll take that any day. If he can put up his career numbers he’s put up as a starter in the NL I’d consider him a fringe #2 quality SP, but most definitely a stellar #3 quality starter. 3.39 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, and a 3BB/9. The BB/9 is worrisome, but the last 2 seasons, over the bulk of his MLB IP, he has a 2.7 BB/9 rate, so it’s getting better as we speak. He’s roughly the same age as Arrieta was when he came to the Cubs. If given a legitimate shot to win a spot in the rotation this offseason I think he DEFINITELY has the potential to surprise a ton of people. Might I be high on Warren? Maybe….. maybe even likely. But fact remains, he has already established himself as a more than capable and dare I say SOLID reliever during his career. 3.05 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 1.22 WHIP (kinda high for reliever… at least higher than desired), and about 3BB/9. That’s got potential to be as good as Grimm was this year, maybe slightly higher ERA (Grimm had a stelar 1.99 ERA in 2015).
However you look at it, the Cubs DEFINITELY got a solid pitcher in return for Castro. Quite honestly, I think they got a better pitcher than Shelby Miller. But that’s just my opinion, and not because I have a Cub fan bias who is high as a kite on anything wearing a Cub uniform. I just like Warren’s peripheral and sabermetric stats than Miller’s. Warren’s ERA+ (granted mostly as a reliever) is almost identical to Miller’s for those of you thinking Miller is this bona fide TOR type arm. If that’s how you think about Miller then you must think Warren has the potential to be just as good. Both guys have been 120 ERA+ pitchers the last 2 seasons….. I should say Warren has been a 124 ERA+ pitcher the last 2 years primarily as a reliever to Miller’s 110 ERA+ over the same period as a starter. Just saying.
I MIGHT be wrong about who it was, but I’m pretty positive that last week you were constantly saying that Miller is a #4 or #3 at best. And now Warren is a fringe #2 or stellar #3. You also conveniently used ERA for Warren while saying that everyone needed to stop looking at Miller’s ERA. So your bias really must be high as a kite. That’s cool as long as you recognize it. I’m just glad that now you’re essentially saying that Miller is a fringe #2 or stellar #3. Miller haters have come a long way in a week. I apologize if it wasn’t you, but pretty positive it was. Also pretty positive that the real culprit will stumble across this.
I agree that Warren is good. He’s been on my fantasy squad when starting. He needs to get stretched out more if he’s going to start. That’s not his fault, but it’s still unkown what he can do consistently the third time through the lineup, and what he can do with 160 innings on his arm.
Historically, Theo had been better at trades than free agents. Not that he’s hit or missed on all in either category, but at the end of the day, I suspect this Warren pick up is going to be better than either Zobrist or Heyward. They’re both good players, but I think they both get over valued by the WAR stat. At least Heyward is young. Zobrist is at that age that middle infielders start to fade.
As generous as these terms are (the opt outs), I wonder what the “plate appearance threshold” is? Per season? Cumulative?
I’d imagine a combo; minimum # per season, and overall total#. In case of possible injury, suspension, leave of absence…
That threshold doesn’t really bother me. In fact it makes me believe that one of those opt out might be a mutual option to opt out of the deal. Why put a plate appearance threshold as a requirement if it didn’t mean the team had the option to terminate the deal? Sounds like protection for themselves as much as it is for Heyward. Say Heyward is riddled with injuries the next 3-4 years and fails to meet the PA threshold. Why would the Cubs not give themselves then to opt out of the deal? It would be kind of pointless to throw in the PA threshold in the deal if a team option to opt out wasn’t included. That said and that being my belief of what the opt outs are exactly (we’ll likely find out here shortly…… if not already while I’m typing this) this is looking very much like a STEAL for the Cubs. I’m sure the deal is backloaded like just about EVERY MLB contract is nowadays. I’m thinking $18M or so AAV for the first 3 years….. or $54M over the first 3 years. That leaves $130M on the table for the last 5 years or $26M AAV. He’d be ENTERING his age 29 season after the 3 years. Meaning another 8 year deal is very likely. If he keeps playing like he has been and likely seeing his 20 HR power return in HR friendly Wrigley, he would likely opt out after 3 years assuming he is healthy through those 3 seasons. By the time the 2018 offseason roles around a $25-26M player likely won’t be as insane as it is today….. which really isn’t that insane anymore, honestly. I think if Heyward over the next 3 years compiles these very attainable averages of a .280 BA, .355 OBP, 20 HRs, 20 SBs, and stellar defense he’d likely fetch an 8 year deal worth easily over $200M. Maybe 8 years and $28M AAV for a total of $224M. Maybe even $30M AAV and $240M if he puts up those numbers the next 3 years. Seems like a very Yankee/Red Sox/Dodgers type move, haha. This would also mean that over the next 11 years would net Heyward just shy of $300M (3 w/Cubs at $54ish million, 8 years with whoever at $240ish million = $294ish million the next 11 years…. and he’d still be coming off his age 36 season when all is said and done)….. which is what his goal has been reported as being for the next 10 years. I have a feeling he picked the Cubs not only to potentially be on a solid team, but also because i think he thinks his 20 HR power will return. He knows that if he can be a 20-20 guy who hits for a solid average and gets on base at a solid clip like he has been doing over his career to go with his stellar defense by 2018 he easily could be a $30M AAV player. Quite honestly I think he is using the Cubs and Wrigley just to pump up his power numbers to make himself worth more dollars. I’m cool with that as long as he stays healthy the next 3 years and a world series is had in one of those 3 seasons as well.
the ball comes off the bat the same way in left, center or right. you can’t be in both places at once to see.
So this is basically a 3 year/$69mm contract. Pretty good deal for the Cubs.
Completely agree.
The new TV deals gonna kick in around then and we might still have a shot at Harper.
I’d imagine that it is at least slightly front loaded for the pre-opt out years.
Probably not even that much. Willing to bet the AAV for the first 3 years is below the contract AAV of $23M. AKA…. it’s a backloaded deal….. like a majority of MLB contracts nowadays. My guess is the first 3 years have an AAV of around $18M….. +/- $1M. Making it potentially a 3 year $54M deal. If Heyward becomes the very likely .285 BA, .355-.360 OBP, 20 HR, 20SB, and stellar defensive player over the next 3 years he’ll DEFINITELY opt out after 3 years, and in the winter of 2018 would likely fetch an 8 year deal worth nearly $240M….. $30M AAV. Ridiculous? Not so much. Again, he’d be signed through his age 29-36 seasons. He’d be a stellar defensive player (at the time of the signing). He’d (potentially) be a 20-20 guy. He’d hit for a solid average and a well above average OBP. By 2018 $30M AAVs won’t be that crazy. How many players already make $30M AAV over their contracts. We’re talking 3 years into the future. $25-30M players will almost be common place…… like how $20M+ AAV players are commonplace for big name free agents today.
You’re assuming he would opt out after 3 years. They didn’t get him for his bat, so he’s only a rotator cuff away from being a boat anchor out there. It was a massive overpay as well as overkill, having him in CF at Wrigley. They could have had Maybin when he was still available for a couple of A-Ballers, saving some $$ for more SP.
Yeah, rotator cuff injuries are the current epidemic for position players. You’re really reachin there. Stop tryin to bring down the Cub vibe dude. I’m not even a Cub fan. In fact last week I said “you Cub fans are going to turn me into a Cardinal.” But dayum, you Cards are feelin SO threatened right now.
Also, not sure why you think they wouldn’t have to “overpay” for pitching, being that everyone has. Cubs have position player depth. They can easily acquire a cheap pitcher. It basically comes down to “do we ‘overpay’ Chen?” Or “do we ‘overpay’ Heyward and possibly acquire pitching from our excess of position players?” I don’t personally think they need pitching, but they made the smart move.
You could say this about every single pitcher signed…ever. And on top of that, you can toss in the tjs surgery and your choice random pitcher injury that is equally as random as rotator cuff injuries for ofs.
I want to read it, but I can’t get through it. Should have spent the classroom time doing something besides looking out the window.
@Yeah, he should have gone to trade school with you.@
-C
I pray this does not result in a Soler for JBJ trade.
This deal doesn’t trouble me at all. It’s the Cubs money and if they think Jason is worth this kind of dough….fine. Hayward has a 311 average at Wrigley but keep in mind, that’s been against Cubs pitching the last seven years which hasn’t been that great. And in 101 trips to the plate in the north side, he has 4HR and 12rbi. Not great but pretty typical run producing ability for JH. We don’t know if Arrietta is truly a great pitcher or was this a one shot deal? Is he one of the best in baseball or is he another Steve Stone or Ray Sadecki?
,
Utterly hilarious to watch Cards fans downplay this. A year after giving up Shelby Miller for him. Lemme guess, Miller was overrated last year anyway and you guys just said, “good riddance!” Walden that valuable a part of the deal that you have no problem giving up a guy who just brought back a massive haul from Arizona for a 1-year rental of a guy you describe as “meh?”
Almost as funny as Cubs fans thinking this gives them an automatic WS win……You won’t go 2 years in a row without ANY significant injuries. Should be a fun season.
While I laugh my a$$ off with the ripping Cards fans are doing over Heyward, I do agree with them that Miller is overrated. Just look at his stats other than his remarkably low ERA for his career. I say remarkably low ERA because his other stats indicate that his 3.20something ERA should be more like 3.60+……. and that’s being kind. Not saying that is horrible, just not top of the rotation worthy (more like a mid rotation quality) and certainly not worth coughing up your top pitching prospect, a top position player prospect, and a solid, young ML outfielder. Diamondbacks, I think, are going to regret that trade.
I don’t hate on Heyward. Solid ballplayer. Depending on your view regarding his defensive value, he is either a good player or a great one. Personally I think the WAR defensive values are screwy, and up his overall value too much. But that doesn’t mean he isn’t good.
Offensively, he is kind of frustrating. You watch him, and you just expect so much more than you get. I know this is a little lazy, but consider,amongst just outfielders last year, these were his ranks. HRs. 49th. Runs scored 26th. RBI 36th. OPS 18th.
Regardless, you have a nice player there. Just don’t expect too much.
As a cubs fan, I’d agree with any assessment that Shelby Miller is overrated. He’s a solid 3-starter but nothing he’s done suggests that he’ll be the top-of-the-rotation starter that he’s been marketed as this off-season. I think people need to stop using over-rated as a synonym for bad. They do not even remotely mean the same thing.
That’s spot on. As a cards fan, when Miller was traded, my thoughts were one over rated pitcher for an over rated outfielder. And I still think both are good, I’d gladly have either on my team, but I don’t think Miller is an ace, nor is Heyward an upper echelon outfielder. But they are both, quite good. Not sure about the money, but the Cubs have themselves a solid outfielder,that does a lot of things well offensively,and is quite the player defensively.
Cubs got a deal, 5-6 WAR player for only $23m AAV is a bargain. The opt outs hurt a little bit, but you always have the inside track to re-negotiate.
Here are the SPs who might make it to free agency next year.
Brett Anderson (29) / Brandon Beachy (30) / Clay Buchholz (32)
Andrew Cashner (30) /Jhoulys Chacin (29) / Jesse Chavez (33)
Josh Collmenter (31) / John Danks (32) / Jorge De La Rosa (36)
R.A. Dickey (42) / Scott Feldman (34) /Jeremy Hellickson (30)
Rich Hill (37) / Ivan Nova (30) / Jake Peavy (36) /Mike Pelfrey (33)
Stephen Strasburg (28) / Josh Tomlin (32) / Jered Weaver (34)
C.J. Wilson (36) / Travis Wood (30)
Want anyone of these guys besides Strasburg?
If not the only way to acquire high end starters are only through trade.
Signing Heyward gives Theo and Jed the flexibility to trade Soler for pitching.
You can’t just look at the present, you’ve got to look into the future as well.
Not everyone on that list is bad. There are some decent options like Feldman, Buchholz, Cashner, and Collmenter, but you’re right, Strasburg is the only ace on the market next year. Is the market for hitting any better?
NOW, If I were the Cubs I would trade Soler for pitching and sign Denard Span for CF so you could keep Heyward in RF where he belongs.
Span
Heyward
Bryant
Rizzo
Schwarber
Zobrist
Russell
Montero
that looks pretty good (and I just threw that together as a Braves fan looking in, I’m sure a cibs fan would set the lineup up a bit better )
YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSS! That a boy Theo! My man. You did what you had to do. This takes us out any more money signing but really who cares. Now dump some pay roll, get creative lets get one more decent pitcher and lets enjoy the holidays. It is going to be a great Christmas. Really happy for my Cubs. Thank you Theo thank you Tom! GO CUBS GO! Sorry but to be honest, I rather have spent that money on a Lackey, Zorb, and Heyward then blow it all on Price. Really, Zorb cost us 16 Million because we saved 40 Million dumping Castro. All the Yanks were laughing, but it was never about those players, it was about saving that money so really we Got Zorb, for 16 Million a year considering we dumped Castro. So were not laughing now. Way to go Cubs. Haters will be haters and I’m sure someone will B&^%ch on the signing but I have yet to read any signing were someone didn’t say it was stupid or bad. GREAT DAY!
Stupid sign, with that money i’d rather sign johny cuetto and keep soler (one of the most talented hitters in the mlb), but if they dont like Soler why domt trade him and sign Gerardo Parra and cueto
With the money that they just wasted
Who says they won’t move more players to free up more cash for Cuteo. If they want him, he not all that, Cubs are fine stop b$#ching Card fans. You lost. You lost out on Price, You lost out on Lackey, You lost out on Heyward, Your not getting Cuteo, and your Not getting Davis. So enjoy Gordon see yeah in Spring. get busy living or get busy dieing. Cubs are living lol.
I don’t even know what 90% of this post is talking about…
How are the cubs freeing up 20-25m for cueto, exactly? Also, ew. Stay away from Cueto.
“keep soler (one of the most talented hitters in the mlb)”
Huh?
I have never seen a bunch of Card fans be such sore losers. If they had resigned him, we be reading different, post. Come on if you say different your lieing. Now if I was the Cubs I try to sign another, great out fielder, hell spend money, then sign a good 2nd tier pitcher. LOL. The days of cheap A$$ Mr. Wrigley, and The Chicago Trib, are over. Tom got bucks and not afraid to spend it. Theo was smart and he bought time, That is why he makes the big bucks. I’m really really curious now who they go after as that other pitcher to complete our Winter. Great Day!
Yes, Cards have had their way for a long time, but the tide has turned this year.
The cubs spending is restricted by the purchase agreement with Zell and mlb’s debt structure.
“The days of cheap A$$ Mr. Wrigley, and The Chicago Trib, are over.” – The highest payroll the cubs have had to start a season was under the Trib Company.
I’ve never seen so many pompous Cubs fans…..no…wait, I have. Every season for the last century.
Gosh, you’re old. Did you ever get to see Babe Ruth play?
Cubs overpaid for an overrated player who projects as a fourth OF and defensive replacement. The defensive metrics overstate his value to a team. He is Bobby Abreu in his prime, without the splendid OBP. A step backwards for Chicago.
Hahaha. This is priceless. You must be a butthurt Cardinal fan to make such a ignorant statement. A .270 hitter with a .360 OBP for his career, roughly, and gold glove caliber defense is NOT a 4th outfielder or just a platoon/defensive replacement player. If you feel that ignorantly about Heyward then you MUST feel the same way about Andrelton Simmons. He’s a .250 hitter with a PATHETIC .300 OBP and .666 OPS for his career, yet the general consensus is he was a great pickup for the Angels. Before you say “well he isn’t overpaid,” yeah he is. He gets paid AAV-wise just shy of $11M the remainder of his contract. People said Castro was overpaid but he has an AAV of just over $10M and despite his bad 2015 is still one of the better hitting SS in the game. That might change now that Lindor and Correa are in the league and are excellent hitting SS, but now that Castro is in NY and plays in a little league stadium, he might finally find that 20 HR power in NY. Castro is still a .280+ hitter. He’s still young and matured a lot when he got benched in July/August this past season. Castro is the same player IMO as Simmons. What Simmons lacks in offense, Castro has. What Castro lacks in defense, Simmons has. They both cancel each other out IMO therefore making them the same player. It’s just that it’s a lot easier to start a player who can actually hit and have below average defense than start a player who hits slightly better than David Ross, Simmons, but has excellent defense. Creates a HUGE hole in your lineup. I digress.
Heyward is probably going to be one of the best lead off hitters in the game. He’ll hit for a decent average and an excellent OBP around .360. Also, despite popular opinion, he does have power, especially for a lead-off hitter. He’s been playing his entire career in pitchers parks. While Wrigley rates as neutral for pitchers and hitters, it is conducive to the HR ball. Heyward is at LEAST going to maintain his roughly 15 HR power at Wrigley (which is still amazing for a lead off hitter), but if Fowler can hit 17 as a Cub I wouldn’t be shocked if heyward hits the 20 mark. Cubs hitting coach and hitting instructors (Manny Ramirez, mainly) is said to going to work on adjusting Heyward’s swing to help generate more power. If that’s the case and is a success who’d to say he doesn’t finally see him live up to that 30+ HR power he was projected to have coming up through the Braves system? At the very least I can easily see Heyward being a .275 hitter, .360 OBP, and 20 HRs with 20 SBs in 2016. That’s a 18 point drop in BA, 1 point bump in OBP, 7 HR increase, and 3 fewer SBs than he had in 2015……. VERY attainable. I mean it’s not like he has a 27 HR season under his belt or anything….. oh wait. That 27 HR season and double digit HR seasons EVERY season tells me he has untapped power potential. And if you think that is “4th outfielder-worthy” you must have an OF of Bryce Harper, Giancarlo Stanton, and…… AJ Pollock.
Heyward was the best defensive and offensive OFer in STL just last year. How can you honestly say he’s a 4th outfielder/defensive replacement? Keep the homer talk to a minimum in forums. You’ll get called out on it. It is the internet.
Don’t feed the troll
The hate is strong in Saint Lou
It’ll be nice to see the Cubs finally get competitive. I don’t see Heyward being great in CF though.
why? Is Heyward not am ambiturner and can only turn right, being unable to get balls hit in right-center? I hear its something that effects people from birth.
(zoolander reference)
His knees take huge divots out of the turf. He’s a really big guy. His best play is using his speed to het to a ball standing up and unleashing his cannon arm from a standup position. I love Heyward he’s a prototypical RF.
Like the NL West the NL Central should be fun to watch as well.
Hope the Cubs and Cardinals fan’s out there the best.
Hmm. $58M over 3 years…… Man I could have sworn there was an intelligent, knowledgable fan on here who predicted the contract would be about $54-57M for an $18-19M AAV over the first 3 years and that this is likely going to only be a 3 year $54-57M deal since Heyward is very likely to opt out barring a serious injury. Who was that extremely intelligent, and good looking, guy?………… (this guy)
Uh…before you pat yourself on the back….it’s 3/78 for an aav of 26. The $20 million dollar signing bonus is paid at the time he opts out.
Is anyone here in 2024 or 2025?