The addition of Jason Heyward has solidified the Cubs’ lineup top-to-bottom, more or less, and with his acquisition nearly complete, the Cubs are turning their focus to the trade market for starting pitchers, tweets Jon Morosi of FOX Sports. Morosi notes that the Cubs have had talks with the Padres about Tyson Ross and the Indians about both Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco.
The Cubs have plenty of prospect depth to dangle in trades, and the names of Jorge Soler and Javier Baez figure to be featured prominently in rumors as the team explores its options. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times tweets, though, that the idea behind the Heyward signing is that he’ll play center field, with Kyle Schwarber manning left field and Soler playing right. That obviously doesn’t preclude a Soler trade, but it also indicates that the Cubs don’t necessarily feel the need to move Soler in order to open right field, as they did at second base when they traded Starlin Castro to the Yankees to clear a spot for Ben Zobrist.
Moving Soler in a trade would again create a hole in center field, although the free agent market has options such as Denard Span and familiar face Dexter Fowler (the latter of whom shares an agent with Heyward) that could be brought in to fill that role if need be.
Chicago’s rotation currently figures to include Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, John Lackey, Kyle Hendricks and Jason Hammel, though one idea that we’ve kicked around in talking about trade scenarios here at MLBTR has been to include Hendricks as one of multiple pieces that could net the team an upgrade (that’s just speculation, of course). To this point in the offseason, the Cubs have been connected to the names mentioned by Morosi as well as the since-traded Shelby Miller, Jose Fernandez and many other arms. Names like Sonny Gray and Chris Sale are popular speculative targets, but neither is likely to be moved this winter.
Hendricks and Baez to SD for Tyson Ross might make sense.
Exchange Hammel for Hendricks, and I’d agree. Still think Cubs would prefer to deal Soler, though…
Why would the Padres take that deal? Hammel has one more year of control, is more expensive than Ross, and struggled badly in the second half. Hendricks has had some success at the MLB level and has 5 years of control remaining, 2 of them pre-arranged seasons. The Padres aren’t going to give up 2 years of Ross for one year of expensive mediocrity and a whiff-happy, unproven second baseman.
Pre arb*
Stupid autocorrect.
FYI, if hammel is traded then a 1 year option kicks in at $9 million
A few things…
1) Hammel makes $9 million next with a team option for 2017. If he’s traded, the option changes from a team option to a player option. The option does not automatically kick in…
2) Tyson Ross is projected to earn $10 million in his second year of arbitration. Not only will he be more expensive than Hammel this year, but he’ll be considerably more expensive than Hammel in 2017.
3) Hammel is being dealt for matching salary. The Padres are doing this for Baez, Soler and/or whatever prospects the Cubs are including in the deal.
Good points, was not aware of the option situation on Hammel’s contract. All I’m saying is that just Hammel and Baez will not be enough to get Ross. Maybe Hammel, Soler and lower level/raw minor leaguer would be though.
I think the deal works with just Hammel and Baez, but I think the cubs would have to send 2.5 mill per year that Hammel stays there.. So it would be 5 mill if Hammel picks up his option for the 2nd year
Padres take that deal because Baez is a very promising potential star, not because of the pitcher coming back.
I think the Cubs would sweeten the offer with a B prospect like McKinney or Edwards = but Ross is unlikely to get a Miller type return.. Not because he’s not a better pitcher (he is) but because 1) he has fewer years remaining on his deal and 2) that trade was f’ing absurd.
You’re overvaluing Tyson “Cy” Ross.
I know. Top 15-20 pitchers with 2 years of team control like Ross should really only get one prospect in return, after all these are Cubs Prospects. Make sure you genuflect when you say Cubs Prospects too.
Kudos to “justinept” for your cool well thought out responses. Some of you Pads fans are getting a little unrealistic in valuing Ross. If he was the same age as his brother Joe one could hope his control could be harnessed. But the wildness has gone on for years now and Tyson ain’t that young anymore.
If Buddy Black couldn’t straighten him out–he may not ever get straightened.
You hit the nail right on the head with that comment. Probably take more than just Baez and Hendricks too. I would think at least one more top 3 prospect since it has been rumored the Padres were asking for 2 impact, MLB ready prospects and a young, cost controlled pitcher.
You’re seriously nuts.. If that was the case id call the Indians and ask for Salazar who is and will always be better than ross! Or I’d call the rays and get Moore and McGhee for Baez and Hendricks straight up.
Yeah, I agree with this. Hendrick’s control is a thing. The Cubs would still have center field as a loose end, though.
I’d much rather trade soler and Hammel to the rays, you could get Matt Moore and McGee back. If Moore comes back to pre TJ form then this trade would be like the Arrieta trade. Plus it would be nice to get a for sure reliever. And by getting rid of Hammel you free up some money, and by doing that the cubs could go sign denard span for 1 or 2 years to play center.
That’s too much for Ross who doesn’t have many years of control.
That’s actually way to little for Ross. You think after what Miller got there going to give him away for trash? You’re eighter bias against the Padres or an idiot.
Then call Dave Stewart and see what he’ll offer for Ross.
Yeah, that’s an agreed upon over pay that seems to happen when Atl and Stewart decide to deal. That didn’t set the market.
You’re a petulant child. Too many very good pitchers out there to settle on Ross.
So how many others better? Can you name one that is up for trade? Please back it up with stats.
fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6632&posit…
No way Padres make that deal way to little.
Agreed. It’ll take another solid prospect in addition to this
Pass. Ross only has 2 years left. I also am just not a fan, I guess. He’s been good, but a 2 pitch, heavy slider, pitcher with control problems worries me.
Soler and Baez to TB for Cobb and McGee? Then re-sign Fowler.
Or, as a Yanks fan, take Ellsbury off the Yanks hands so they could sign Upton.
No.
Heyward is Fowler with a much better glove and has a chance to develop power.
Ellsbury?!!
The Ellsbury suggestion wins the day, as far as I am concerned. Nothing Theo wants to do more than acquire $105 million of salary along with 2.2 WAR often-injured playoff-game-benched Jacoby Ellsbury. That’s spectacular. What four prospects are the Yankees sending over to make THAT deal palatable?
Hendricks is going to be a great pitcher ….
NO WAY !!!!!!! His last 5 games he looked like a all star , this guy is a rookie and only getting better !!!!
Theo & Jed should now be patient. They’ve got a glut of young hitting & a filled out roation. Get to the deadline, and then deal the young hitting for a stud that’s firing on all cylinders. Chris Archer is the ideal fit.
Well… of course the Cubs ‘plan’ to use Heyward in CF. What do you expect them to say? “Hey everyone… we REALLY need to trade Soler right now…’
I love this comment.
HEY!!! Don’t confuse everyone with that common sense stuff. What you’re SUPPOSED to do is suggest absolutely ridiculous trade packages that insanely favor your team.
If Cubs land 1 more starter and solid reliever… going to be tough to find a weakness on that team.
Tampa has interest in both Soler & Baez, and they have a great, young CF in Kiermaier, intriguing SPs like Cobb & Odorizzi, and a RP in McGee who would all fit in well on the Cubs.
The Cubs would need to unload the farm for Kiermaier. And i mean unload. Hes coming off the best defensive season in history of baseball last year.
Are you the same kind of person to say that the Cubs overpaid for Heyward just now? Because if you are, you dont unload the system for a guy with just a good glove, His average, sb, and obp are not all that great. Those factors justify a big contract for Heyward, but being a one dimensional player, albeit a very good one in that regard, does not call for clearing the system for him.
Kiermaier had 7.3 WAR as a 25 year old with a league average bat. If he can become a better hitter, hes a legit superstar kind of player.
FYI I don’t think 184M for Heyward is an overpay.
A superstar? Good grief.
KK is a great fielder with no bat… All projections say that Almora will be a similar player — maybe not ‘the best defensive season in history’ good, but ther’es also no guarantee KK will ever replicate the insane defensive metrics he put up this past year.
League average bat, actually. And a better defender than Heyward. There’s only two guys on the Cubs that start a conversation for him: Bryant and Russell, and I don’t even think Russell does it.
Kiermaier, Inciarte and AJ Pollock must be the 3 most underrated outfielders in baseball.
I’d toss David Peralta in that conversation
I wouldn’t call a .298 obp a league-average bat… But his fielding was other-worldly last year.
98wrc+ so slightly below league avg, but still good for a cf. I would never trade Bryant or Russel for KK and I love him. I imagine that many other fo’s feel that way as well. Thus, he’ll stay in TB for a few years until he has fewer years of control and TB actually has a reason to move him.
Bryant and Russell and MORE for Kiermaier? There is no GM who would do that, no offense. I’d love the guy on the Cubs, but I wouldn’t empty the farm system for a guy who’s WAR is mostly tied up in his defense.
Bahaha, this is joke right? Bryant? Lmaoooo.. For Bryant the cubs could get archer back and kk.. Kk isn’t that good. He had his career year. Its downhill from here war wise.
I assume you’re basing this comment on his historically high dWAR last year, but if you look a little closer at the greatest single-season dWAR numbers, you’ll realize how finicky (ie, non-precise and still a work-in-progress) they are.
KK’s was 5.0 last year, which is the third highest total ever. Take a look at the others, though. Ozzie Smith had a 4.7 one year, and never had one above 3.5 in any other season. Manny Machado had a 4.3 a few years ago, then followed it up with 1.0 (in half a season) and a 1.9. Andrelton Simmons, who is fantastic, had a 5.4 a few years ago and then had two sub-4.0 seasons.
The point is, these ‘historically great’ seasons haven’t been reproducible. KK may be great, but I certainly wouldn’t expect a 7+ WAR from him next year.
This is also being said about a player who is in his second full season, hit for .263 both seasons, and ramped up his extra base hits, and stolen bases.
This is a moot point though, Tampa won’t trade him.
They would Jennings though…who desperately needs to get off the turf
Not suggesting they will trade him. But I wouldn’t say he ramped up the extra base hits. He had 13 more in 2015 than he did in 2014. But he also had an extra 171 plate appearances
In 2014, he had one extra-base hit every 9.3 plate appearances
In 2015, he had one extra-base hit every 8.8 plate appearances.
Better, yes – but not by much.
He might regress, but not to the point where he isn’t fantastic.
Fangraphs has 15 DRS
He might regress, but not to the point where he isn’t fantastic.
Fangraphs has 15 DRS as GG caliber. He had 42.
Fangraphs has 15 UZR as GG caliver. He had 30.
Go ahead and say you don’t have to unload the farm, but we all know you pay for recent production in trades, and career numbers on the FA market.
Only 3 outfielders had more WAR than Kiermaier.
I guess my point is that guys who’s value is predicated almost solely on defense tend to fluctuate more than guys who rely on offense. Take a look at Juan Lagares for a very recent example.
This isn’t entirely true.
Defensive opportunity is finicky, you can’t control where the ball gets hit. Hitters are guaranteed their at bats assuming health.
That being said, offensive ability is subject to the same fluctuations as defensive ability. Heyward himself has has wild fluctuations, specifically in power. There’s a laundry list of guys with random years: Pearce Napoli Brady Anderson on the good. Votto Dunn Victor Martinez, etc on the bad side.
If a guys D has been solid in a large sample you should trust it pretty close to how you would for a hitter
Lagares had a shoulder injury
Actually, it was an elbow injury but my point stands. It was a minor enough injury that he could play, but he didn’t have great defensive stats before it nor late in the season.
and defensive war is highly erratic using only 1 year, he is an elite CF but do you really think hes that far and away better than everyone out there. i think he and mcgee are the targets if there is a trade, and i think soler, baez and almora would be the package going back to T.B.
Too much but I don’t think the Rays are trading KK anyway
Um, no they won’t. Good defender, great. Lousy OBP.
No one is unloading any farm, or even half the farm for him. He’s a very good defensive player who might not even start for every team. Are you a relative of his?
It’s too bad that you can’t use any of the advanced defensive metrics until you have 4000 innings played at any position.
Teheran and Inciarte in a package for … ?
All we need is a starting pitcher. The outfield is full. No room for inciarte.
Soler’s probably getting moved in a trade for a rotation upgrade, so the outfield wouldn’t be full.
There’s less than a 5% chance that Heyward is the CF for the Cubs in 2015… Soler is being dealt unless the Cubs are completely underwhelmed by the offers.
I’d say there is 100% chance he doesn’t play center in 2015 š
for the cubs*
There’s actually a 100% chance he plays cf in 2015
His joke was that it’ll be 2016
Oh ok gotcha. My bad
And I’m saying there is a 100% chance that he doesn’t play cf *for the cubs in 2015. Because the statement that he doesn’t play cf in 2015, is false, seeing as how he did play cf for the cards.
While saying he played cf for the Cards is technically true, he was really considered a rf. He only played 10 games in cf.
Not exactly. Inciarte is a better center fielder then everyone on the Cubs. If they send Soler for Inciarte+, it’ll open up RF for Heyward
Other way round. Braves don’t trade Inciarte for Soler, who makes real money and is older.
Soler is 23. Inciarte is 25. Soler is more expensive, but I think he has more upside still. Inciarte is a better player right now, but I think you need more than him to pull in Soler, and I’m a D-Back fan as well as a Cub fan, so I’m aware of his good Inciarte actually is
I agree with aff10. Soler is more expensive but he only makes between 3.6 and 4.6 million beginning in 2016. So his contact is VERY team friendly. That deal runs through 2020. He’s got to work on the routes he takes to balls but he’s got a cannon for an arm in right, so there’s good room to develop.
I think the defense for Chicago is much more solidified if J-Hey stays in RF and the Cubs get someone else who is a true CF. Kiermaier would be awesome–he could hit low in he order and the OF would be airtight for the most part.
I like this deal only if Soler is involved because it will allow the Cubs to move Heyward to right and really give them a stellar defense in the outfield. It would probably cost maybe like Soler and Mckinney or Soler and Edwards
More like Soler and Bryant.
Yeah, you’re right. Want the cubs to toss in russel, schwarber, and Baez too?
How is that justified? Continuing to over value your players I see? Theo wont make the same trade that Stewart did. If Soler alone was able to draw interest for Miller when in reality he brought back a package of people INCLUDING Inciarte plus the number one draft pick and another top prospect pitcher, then Soler plus will be more than enough to net Inciarte and Teheran.
Soler alone didn’t draw interest. He was a starting point. Everyone on both sides is overrating their players here.
That’s a joke right? Soler and Bryant for Teheran and Inciarte? Not everyone is Dave Stewart
If I was Coppy, I would turn that down. Not near enough value from the Cubbies. Inciarte 5.9 WAR, Bryant 5.9 WAR these guys are even then Teheran 3.0 WAR vs Soler 0.9 WAR. Cost nearly the same buy Braves are giving up 75 Million in Excess Value. It would not work for the Braves unless two of the top three prospects were added by the Cubs.
The cubs don’t want teheran, you’re crazy! You wouldn’t get half of Bryant for teheran and inciarte. Bryant is a top 5 most valuable position player in the majors. So dream on fool
Soler and Contreras would be a start but tbh I’m not sure as a braves fan I am wanting to see Inciarte and Teheran leave unless it was an awesome package.
Before Braves fans saw the haul that Miller brought back half of the fans i saw commenting on here were willing to trade Teheran for a half eaten bag of doritos and bat tape. Soler and Contreras would be an over pay especially considering he is the long term option behind the plate so he’s held at a much higher premium than Mckinney
Um even if all of us called for him to get traded for peanuts it means nothing? We don’t speak for management who has infinitely more experience than all of put together. I wonder if they come on here laughing at us.
Lastly that’s definitely Not overpay. That’s overpay to you. There’s a difference
Jorge Soler, Travis Wood and CJ Edwards for Tyson Ross
Not a bad proposal. I’ve heard the Padres connected to Baez in the past, and they’ve got a clear need at SS, so there could be different permutations of a Ross trade.
That’s too much for Ross IMHO.
We can agree to disagree. You need a top young player to start the conversation on a guy like Ross. Soler does that. Edwards is a high-upside reliever, then Wood would be a stopgag starter for the Padres. He doesn’t have much value to the Cubs, who now are loaded with MLB SP
Too rich for my blood.
could you Baez & D Norris into that trade?
I say screw it and cash in with Heyward in the fold now. Call the White Sox and get Chris Sale. Price will be crazy but if any team can handle it right now in the short term and long term, it’s the Cubs
White doc would probably ask for Bryant and Rizzo. From a PR standpoint, trading the face of your franchise to your city rivals would destroy a fan base unless there was a huge overpay.
Yeah, those 8 sox fans would probably be pissed.
Nah, Rizzo wouldn’t be necessary. You can go ahead and throw in Addy and Schwarber instead though.
Lol how do you know what’s necessary?
Oh I don’t know. Maybe common sense? They have this guy named Jose Abreu that can man first base, and they have multiple holes on the rest of the roster. Therefor, Rizzo wouldn’t be necessary, and Russell/Schwarber would make significantly more sense for them.
Considering the Braves wanted Bryant and Soler (and someone else) for Shelby Miller, I doubt a Sale trade is doable. Dave Stewart set the market at an insanely high level. I haven’t seen Theo ready to give up too many prospects yet – he’s certainly been willing to deal major league players at the drop of a hat, but I haven’t seen it on the prospect side.
By the way, if you want to read an entertaining rant, go the Philly.com. There’s an angry screed about the Ken Giles trade that’s priceless.
Trading Soler, who is already on a long term extremely friendly contract is stupid. This guys upside is bigger than Heywards. Plus I don’t think Ross is all that much of an upgrade over Hendricks or Hammel.
Deal from the loaded minor league system and keep the core guys. McKinney and Torrez are are blocked at the MLB level and would bring back good arms.
Thank you for bringing this up. Trading Soler for pitching creates another problem. It also doesn’t help fix a small problem they have. A rotation of Lackey Lester Arrieta Hammel and Hendricks is quite alright. Would it be good to get another upgrade? Sure. But the back of the rotation is still good and an OF of Soler Schwarber and Heyward is incredible
Incredible at hitting… That’s some shaky outfield D.
If you don’t think Ross is that much better than Hendricks or Hammel, then you need to watch Tyson Ross… Unlike Hendricks or Hammel, he actually has an ‘out’ pitch
So what do you propose the cubs do for centerfield then if they make that trade I just think you are trading one problem for another. Cubs rotation was one of the best in the National League last year so they’ve already did enough to make it better for this year.
you don’t watch hammel then, nasty curveball. however he wears as the season goes on. ross is good but walks too many not allowing him to go deep in to ball games. much rather go with the indians guys.
I agree with that completely. I would like to see Teheran switch to a Cubs uni. Guy with great stuff that never translated to sucess? Smells like an Arrieta 2.0 to me
Did heyward take less to go to the cubs? I heard the nationals offered like 200 million
Cubs offered less overall, but more aav and he has 2 opt outs. So yes and no?
May have been a lesser AAV,
Props on Ray Rayner old timer. I’m guessing you’re older, as I watched it as a kid.
Watched Ray as a kid in the 70s. I’m probably older than most on this site.
He took less money but he got two opt outs which are incredibly player friendly.
Let’s see if the cubs make a trade for a pitcher and a reliever, I wonder if that means solar will be traded
People always say opt outs are player friendly. I think they are just as team friendly as player friendly, ESPECIALLY in the case of Heyward. Cubs get Heyward for quite possibly the 3 best years of his career….. at least. If he opt out after 3 years (likely) he’d only cost the Cubs 3 years and $54ish million (I think/assume the deal is backloaded and the AAV the first 3 years is closer to $18M than the $23AAV over the life of the contract). Heyward at 3 years and $54M or even $69M is a heck of a deal by the Cubs. The fact the opt outs are tied to plate appearances also leads me to believe the Cubs may have an unheard of opt out themselves. I mean think about it. Why make the opt outs contingent on plate appearances if the team couldn’t opt out themselves? I mean if Heyward is hobbled by injuries the next 3-4 years why on earth would he even consider opting out? My guess is the first opt out is a player opt out and the second opt out is either a team or mutual option to opt out… if he doesn’t meet plate appearance requirements.
Or my guess is the second opt out is what’s contingent on plate appearances. As in if he doesn’t meet plate appearance requirements over the 4 years the opt out automatically kicks in, favoring the Cubs. Odds are though Heyward continues his upward trend and over the next 3 years hits around .280-.290, hits 20 HRs, steals 20 bases, gets on base at a .360ish clip, and continues his stellar defense all while staying healthy…. which means he opts out after 3 regardless. Collects his $54ish million and then enters free agency, and after putting up numbers at least similar to what I just listed and entering only his age 29 season I bet he would garner a 7-8 year deal worth well north of $200M…… which is why he’d opt out of the remaining 5 years and $115-$130M….. depending on the structure of the current contract. I think he’d get $100M more than that and then some as a 29 year old free agent especially if he turns into a 20-20 guy in HR friendly Wrigley. If Fowler can hit 17 HRs I am willing to bet Heyward hits at least 20 in 2016 and beyond each season as long as he’s wearing a blue uni. It all depends if he stays healthy. He does that and I peg him for 7 years and $224M in the 2018 offseason….. netting Heyward $278M over the next 10 years….. well played Heyward. Heck, at 29 he could fetch an 8 year deal and $240M for $294ishM over the next 11 years. If he’s nearly a .285-.290 hitter and a 20-20 player with a golden glove in the OF, $30-$32M in 2018 won’t be as asinine as it seems today. I mean look at the $30M AAVs being handed out already today. We’re talking 3 years in the future. If Chris Davis thinks he’s worth $25M now, yeah… $30M AAV position players are a coming in droves. Andrew McCutchen will also be a FA OFer after 2018 as well. Both he and Heyward will fetch $30M AAVs that offseason….. book it. (barring injuries to either in the meantime).
They are not in a teams favor. If he’s good, he leaves. If he’s bad, he stays. If a player ops out, it’s because he feels he can make more money. If he can make more money, then he has a positive value. If he has a positive value, you can trade him, vs letting him go (qo). And I highly doubt the deal is back loaded
The Dodgers would disagree.
Cardinals also offered more money.
Baez and Soler to the Braves for Teheran, Inciarte and Folty
Swap Baez with Almora and that would work for me but I have a feeling Braves are done making big trades after the Miller trade. Just a hunch on my part.
Jackie Bradley Jr would fit nicely in that lineup.
Not in the lineup, but his defense would play.
Even if Soler gets traded for an arm I still see Heyward in Center. Baez at 2nd and Zorbist in RF.
They traded Castro to make room for Zobrist. He wanted to play 2b. I don’t see them screwing him over after he signs.
No way. Zobrist is on record saying he’s a 2B now, with occasional forays elsewhere as needed. He didn’t sign to be a RF and I’m sure he made that crystal clear.
Baez will be the new super utility man now.
Playing Baez as a utility player would hurt his development.
If someone on the infield gets injured, Baez will be the first man in. If they want to do a double switch, Baez can go in. He will get his ABs and spot starts.
You don’t keep a player with that potential on the bench. He’s getting traded. Almost no doubt.
Cubs can squeeze in 400 ABs for him. Maddon is a master at mixing and matching for injuries, streaks, resting regulars, etc. If he needs playing time, he can be optioned to the minors for a spell. I don’t think the Cubs will get his true value in a trade and he should be kept as depth.
Who would bring a bigger return, Baez or Soler? I’d love to see the cubs make a package for sonny gray but that might cost them the whole farm, they could go after salazar
Baez
Disagree, I think Soler would.
Wrong by a huge margin. Baez is not worth that much. Potential major bust.
Soler. Baez is a lot more risky.
Soler by a lot. But it’d probably take both to get a good pitcher.
There is also issue of 40 man roster. Cubs will need to free up some space. I could see inclusion of Vogelbach in a trade to an AL team as a very real possibility. Villanueva should almost certainly be considered available to trade as well
Vogelbach doesn’t have anywhere near as much value as Cubs fans think. He’s a throw in in any trade.
This seems fairly easy, albeit with some moving parts. Trade Soler for a SP (or if they want a better SP, use Schwarber. Either way.) then trade for or sign a CF. They could get Fowler back, sign Span for a year, or go get Charlie Blackmon or similar. All very doable.
Buchholz and JBJ for Soler
Orioles sp Miguel Gonzalez for soler
Padres – Don’t let another team beat you out. You NEED to trade Ross. DON’T sit on him. As a Pads fan, I prefer Soler. He would be a nice pair with Renfroe once he’s ready. Now…if only we could dump Kemp. Still shaking my head over that one.
Don’t see the fit myself. Another right handed, poor defender is kind of the last thing the Padres need. Ross is very much in demand. Don’t settle for Baez or Soler.
I didn’t mean it as a 1-1 of course. Only as Baez/Soler as a key component. But you may be right. Baez could very well be Jedd Gyorko 2.0 and with Renfroe on his way (should hang onto him) and since the Pads are stuck with Kemp, maybe Soler doesn’t make sense. But the Pads should for sure shop him and if they get what they like, pull the trigger.
Anyone know what it would take for the cubs to say trade for chris sale or sonny gray
Too much.
A whole lot more then you or they would want to give.
It would take a player from the current roster with a projected WAR of 3.0 or more (Probably Rizzo, Bryant, Schwarber or Russell and $40million excess value plus the top two prospects in the system, Gleybar and McKinney. This is based on recent trade history for top of the rotation pitchers with remaining control (in arbitration) of three or more years.
Sale could be Schwarbs or Russell and Hendricks and prospect but why would either team bother
fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-trade-value-the-full-list…
From the Sox perspective – it’s taking 2 of Bryant/Russell/Schwarber + a couple good prospects. They aren’t letting Sale go unless it’s for waaaaay too much.
Sale and Lawrie for Bryant and Hammel would be fair. Don’t know why either team would do it as you’re trading faces of the franchises.
I would argue not nearly enough for Sale considering this market. And I would argue Cubs would not trade Bryant.
Would the Cubs be interested in Jake Marisnick or Carlos Gomez of the Astros? Not sure what the return would be, but Gomez has one year left at $7 million and Marisnick is controllable for a couple more years. Both guys seem to solve this CF problem for the Cubs. Not sure what the Astros would want in return, I don’t think they would have any interest in Soler.
If the Cubs want to use Schwarber in left.
They need a great defender in center to make up for his woes.
Marisnick seems like the better option IMO.
Gomez’s D in CF is pretty strong too, and has upside with his bat.
Gomez’s defensive metrics have declined drastically over the years.
He is not as good a defender as you think.
Yea, but his CF metrics are still above average and I would take his bat over many other CF options.. Gomez plays CF over Marisnick for the Astros, but I think that’s because Marisnick (and Springer and Rasmus for that matter) can play other OF positions at a higher level than Gomez.
I’d love to see the Red Sox make a play for Schwarber. Offer up JBJ and any starter not named Price. If they push for him, I’d even throw Vasquez in the deal.
Not a fan of moving Hendricks. Seems counter intuitive as to what they want. Despite popular belief, Hendricks had a SOLID first full season in MLB last year. No he doesn’t have a 95+ MPH fastball and it sits more at 89-90 MPH. What he does have is solid control of his pitches. In all his ML starts across 2014 and 2015 he has a 2BB/9 rate which is closer to elite than average for a starter. Greinke, considered a control pitcher had a 1.6BB/9 and a 1.9BB/9 walk rate this year and 2014 respectively. His WHIP over the last year and a half as a Cub starter is a dare I say stellar 1.14. His FIP over the last year and a half? 3.34. And for those thinking he did so horrible/mediocre last year…… that could be blamed more on the defense behind him. He had a 3.36 FIP last year. A 3.37 SIERA. He’s been about a 2 WAR player for those of you putting stock in the WAR “stat.” For being a young starter these are SOLID numbers. These peripheral and sabermetric stats are way better than what Shelby Miller’s put up. WAY better. Why trade him? I think very truly that Hendricks has the potential to be a Doug Fister quality type pitcher, a SOLID middle of the rotation arm.
If they want to trade anyone, trade Hammel. He has value to some team for a back end of the rotation spot. He could get you another solid reliever. Then if they must, trade Baez or Soler for another quality SP. I’d be pretty upset if they trade Hendricks….. one of the FEW pitching prospects they have who is actually doing pretty good so far. He had a 3.36 FIP but a 3.95 ERA in 2015. That 3.36 FIP is almost identical to the 3.34 FIP he had in his 13 starts in 2014 in which he had a sub 3 ERA. Eeventually I think that ERA evens out to a range of 3.30-3.50 over the next few years, but likely in the 3.40 neighborhood – right in line with that FIP. That’s pretty friggin good IMO. I think Hendricks gets unfairly left out of the conversation of promising young Cubs players with high ceilings. Everyone is focusing on the plethora of young Cubs ML hitters and tons of solid hitting prospects that they forget they currently have a promising young SP in Hendricks, and despite popular belief they do have promising pitching prospects in Pierce Johnson, Duane Underwood, and Justin Steele. They just project to be solid mid rotation arms or solid #2 quality arms and not that “future Ace” label. They are also still pretty young with Johnson being the exception at age 24 and who will very likely make his ML debut this upcoming season.
Much rather see them either stand pat with what they got, but if they HAVE to make a move for a SP they’d have to be overwhelmed IMO. If they can swing a deal for Salazar that involves Baez OR Soler and 1 or two prospects like Vogelbach and/or Edwards and/or McKinney and/or Almora.
If the Cubs can swing a deal of, say, Soler, Vogelbach and a low level prospect, like 18 year old LHP Bryan Hudson I say do it. Then you can just throw Coghlan out there in RF for the time being until the likes of McKinney, or Happ, or Dewees, or Eddy Martinez, or any one of the other MANY top OF prospects they have are ready. But that’s about all I’d offer to Cleveland for either Salazar and maybe even less for Carrasco. Personally, I wouldn’t offer more than either baez or Soler for Ross straight up. Ross freaks me out with the amount of walks he gives up. He’s wild. Wild pitchers throw a TON of pitches and a TON of pitches generally means an elbow injury is in his near future. At the very least arm fatigue. On the radio here in the Chicago area they are reporting they are still in talks with the Indians and RAYS for a potential trade for a SP….. not the Padres. Of the Rays starters I’d be interested in I’d probably just say Odorizzi. Again, i’d have to be overwhelmed with the deal, either just a couple of prospects or Baez or Soler straight up……. even then I’d probably nix it. Archer is really the only rays pitcher I love and a former Cub prospect himself. But he’d likely be waaaaaaaay out of reach. I’d entertain the idea of Baez AND Soler though along with low level prospects for Archer if they’d be willing to entertain that. That’s potentially 2 major league ready, young players who could be difference makers in that lineup and give Longoria MUCH needed help for their Ace and what would be the Cubs #3 pitcher behind Arrieta and Lester. Cubs would then be
CF Heyward
2B Zobrist
1B Rizzo
3B Bryant
RF Schwarber
SS Russell
LF Coghlan
C Montero
SP Arrieta
SP Lester
SP Archer
SP Lackey
SP Hendricks
I’d take that in a minute…… I doubt the Rays would allow it though, haha. That super young and exciting lineup becomes slightly less young and less exciting though with the absence of Soler and Baez. I guess it still only has three 30+ year olds and five 26 or younger players…. but still. The injuries are an issue with Soler, but his upside is so friggin amazing. Especially if he’s in this lineup hitting behind the likes of Heyward. Zobrist, Rizzo, Bryant, and Schwarber….. or hitting behind Bryant there in the 5th hole and Schwarber and his stellar power hitting behind Soler. Nasty. but a rotation including Arrieta, Lester, and a returned Archer with Lackey and Hendricks in the back end of the rotation……. just as nasty.
That’s not even close to enough for Archer.
We will never get Archer back while he is under Rays control. Thank you, Jim Hendry.
Here’s one writer who’s realistic about the Cubs getting Sonny Gray. There’s absolutely NO CHANCE the Cubs are able to swing a deal for him.
I don’t even know why anyone even mentions his name. Beane pretty much said he has no intentions of moving him and rumors surrounding him have been pretty much non-existent. Unlike the Marlins who keep saying Fernandez is not going to be moved….. but are still talking to teams about him, Beane has stayed true to his word. I’ve heard zero rumors about a Gray trade this offseason other than hypothetical trades being proposed by hopeful/wishful fans that have almost 0% chance of happening. Gray doesn’t exactly impress me as much as he apparently impresses everyone else.
Look at Gray’s numbers other than ERA. BB/9, K/9, WHIP, FIP, SIERA, LD%, GB%, FB%, soft%, Med%, Hard%, etc. Guess who has nearly identical numbers and in some cases better numbers in all those categories so far in his slightly newer MLB career of roughly 230 less innings pitched (roughly 1 season’s worth of innings)?
That’s right. You guessed it……….. Kyle Hendricks. Whaaaaaaaaaaat
Not that they’re unable, but not willing to pay what Oakland is probably asking. They have more than enough to acquire him, but too cost prohibitive.
What would the pairing of LaStella and Hammel plus a prospect realistically be worth? I know LaStella is never talked about in the same light as Baez, but he, in my opinion, is rather similar to Zobrist (besides Zobrist being capable of playing OF, while LaStella is capable of playing 3B) and granted no big time injuries take place, doesn’t seem to have a real chance to play that much with the current roster and their desire to get Baez a lot more at bats.
Depends on the prospect. I can’t imagine that La Stella would have much value.
I’d love to see the Red Sox make a run at Schwarber. Offer up JBJ, any starting pitcher not named Price in the rotation and get that deal done. And if they have to throw in Vasquez, then make it happen.
So Schwarber for scraps lol
Cubs are now the best team in baseball on paper, they will pick and choose from here on out.
In this day and era it’s hard to retain a core group of guys.
Everyone knows that you’re not a genius.
It’s how wide of a window you can hold open to compete.
Arrieta / Bryant are Boras clients and won’t be a Cub in a few years.
Is this a bad thing?
No, we’ll have the joy of watching a newer generation come in and fill the void.
Thanks for the time and effort, but we know that the win now approach has it’s downs..
If the Arizona-Atlanta trade from December 8th at the MLB winter meetings is a template for getting a trade deal done, then Here is the equivalent with the Chicago Cubs. The Braves send pitchers Julio Teheran (Better and cheaper than Miller) and Jose A. Ramirez (Received in trade from Mariners earlier this year, better than Gabe Speir who went to Arizona) to the Chicago Cubs for a package of either Javier Baez or Jorge Soler (neither quite as good as Inciarte based on performance since 2013 8.9 WAR in two years) and two prospects Gleybar Torres, SS, CUB #1, MLB#29 (not quite as highly ranked as Dansby Swanson MLB#10) and Carl Edwards, P, Cubs#3, MLB#57 (almost the same as Aaron Blair MLB#61).
It’s not.
Braves may trade Julio Teheran 5yr control for $8Mil AAV, Nick Markakis 3/10.5 AAV, and Emilio Bonifacio 1/1.25 backup for Kyle Schwarber, Javier Baez, Travis Wood and Kyle Hendricks. Could substitute MIchael Bourn, CF, 1/14 with option for Markakis if preferred.
Cubs may trade David Ross, some Wrigley ivy, a 12 pack goose island sampler, and deep dish lou’s (sausage, gardinera, pepperoni) for entire braves Farm system.
Sold on Malnati’s but if they throw in some Al’s # 1. Deal is done.
Why would the Cubs deal two of their top young guys (Schwarber & Baez) a decent lefty starter/reliever (Wood) and a decent cheap starter (Hendricks) for Teheran, Markakis (who would have no where to play) and Bonifacio?
Ahahaha, Worst trade ever.
Arizona brought in Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling and Luis Gonzalez and won 2001.
Click
If the Cubs or any other team wants to acquire Tyson Ross, they’re going to pay through the nose. The price for quality starting pitching isn’t going to be equal value. That’s why Miller was expensive, heck, even closers are expensive as Houston overpaid dearly for Giles.
Supply and demand. Want a front line starter or closer? Prepare to pony up.
If you think Giles was an overpay, what are you thoughts on Kimbrel…
If SD wants a ton for Ross, just move on. See if you can work something out with Cleveland, I know and don’t care that it’ll cost more. I like both Carrassco and Salazaar way more and they have more years of control.
If you can’t get any of them at a reasonable price, screw it and go into the season with what you have. It’s not terrible and there is some depth. If it becomes a huge problem, re-evaluate at the deadline.
Not a bad deal
Proposed trade to help both my beloved White Sox and Cubs:
The team on the south side of town can potentially satisfy both remaining Cubs needs with two young and experienced high WAR players who also have long term team-friendly contracts in place. That sort of combination will be costly in terms of return talent but the Cubs have the type of depth the White Sox would covet and the teams match up well as trade partners.
Southpaw Jose Quintana would give the Cubs ideal rotation balance as their #4 starter behind John Lackey while Adam Eaton would provide the lead-off hitting CF that allows Jason Heyward to remain in RF.
The White Sox would likely require a return package that includes young MLB ready talent as they continue to build around their nucleus of Chris Sale and Jose Abreu. The White Sox seldom punt on a season and would want players back who can help them contend as soon as 2016.
The White Sox covet offense more than anything else on the heals of their disappointing 2015 season in which they ranked at the bottom of virtulally ever offensive category. In return for Quintana and Eaton, they would want one of the two Cubs corner outfielders as a starting point for a trade. They would prefer Kyle Schwarber but may settle for Jorge Soler. Either player immediately upgrades the middle of their batting order and would provide Jose Abreu better protection than he has had since joining the club two season ago.
In addition to one of the corner outfielders, the White Sox would want Javier Baez who can immediately become the team’s starting shortstop in 2016. Depending on the development of the White Sox #1 prospect, shortstop Tim Anderson, at AAA in 2016 season, Baez can either remain the White Sox long term SS or move to 3B or 2B in 2017.
The third player the White Sox would ask for in return would fill another one of the team’s holes in 2016, that of a right-handed starting pitcher to balance out a lefty leaning rotation. The White Sox would prefer Kyle Hendricks but may settle for Jason Hammel to slot between southpaws Sale and Carlos Rodon in their rotation.
Depending on the which corner outfielder and right-handed starting pitcher were settled upon, the White Sox would likely demand additional compensation from the Cubs. If Soler and Hammel were agreed upon rather than Schwarber and Hendricks, the White Sox would likely demand an additional prospect or two. One could be CF Albert Almora, who would be expendable with the acquisition of Eaton and provide the White Sox with an insurance policy in case Trayce Thompson doesn’t pan out in CF as Eaton’s replacement in 2016. Another prospect the White Sox would covet is LF Billy McKinney.
Bottom line: A trade of Jose Quintana and Adam Eaton to the Cubs for some combination of Kyle Schwarber/Jorge Soler, Javier Baez, Kyle Hendricks/Jason Hammel, Albert Almora and/or Billy Mckinney would seem feasible and potentially benefit both clubs in the short and long term.
Good thing the Cubs are on the North side, all they would have to do with this deal is bend over.
I don’t like Adam Eaton. I just don’t trust that 40 point jump in iso. I’d love quintana though.
I feel like nobody (myself included) really likes Eaton, and I find that kind of funny. 2 years ago he had a great overall season numbers-wise, and last year he had a pretty elite offensive season for a CF while his defense declined drastically. There’s just something about him that I don’t like though, and I wouldn’t be upset at all if we moved him for a solid return. Maybe things would be different if Robin wasn’t the manager (everyone on this team plays lazy defense), but I just find it weird/funny that a lot of people feel this way about Eaton despite the current numbers-craze.
It because he’s so damn inconsistent. (For the last 2 years, while he’s been good) His overall value and production end up looking pretty good, but the components that do that change.
You’re probably right on the reason. I don’t know, but if I was running the team, I’d try to take advantage of all the WAR love and move him for a couple really good prospects.
I like Eaton. The Sox like him too, but I think if his defense doesn’t stabilize to at least a little below average, the Sox will move him to a corner sooner than later.
I think your Sox love is greater than your Cubs love.
Soler & Baez for Ross & Norris?
Looks like the Cubs will be spending big on the Free Agent market if they want another pitcher or outfielder because they over value their unproven prospects.
The guys here don’t mean a thing.
Jed and Theo are the only ones in charge.
They’ll make a wise decision if they were to get dealt.
The guys here are having fun with predicting possible trades they feel is right.
Just let them have their fun instead of getting upset
that their assessments don’t match yours.
Some of these guys are wacks but let them be because they won’t get a reply.
I don’t think the cubs really have the resources to spend big on the FA market after these recent additions. And judging on what Thoyer has said, they are relatively happy with their rotation. I can see them trying to acquire pitching for soler + . If they don’t find something they like, it’s not like they don’t already have a very good team. There is no reason to sell the farm right now
Holy crap, you have typing problems.
Julio Tehran, Inciarte, Rio Ruiz for Soler and Baez works well for the Braves and the Cubs. Let’s make it happen!