Ben Zobrist‘s projected price tag “keeps going up,” tweets Yahoo’s Jeff Passan, who hears from clubs involved in his market that the demand for his services has the price sitting at four years and $60MM currently. That price could still rise, says Passan. That he says the current price tag is about $60MM over four years would indicate that no club has approached that level just yet, although given the sheer number volume of teams that Zobrist could help, it’s easy to see how competition could push his eventual contract beyond that level.
The 34-year-old Zobrist has been one of the most in-demand free agents on this year’s market, with early reports connecting him to the Mets, Nationals, Braves, Cubs, Giants, Cardinals and Royals, among others. Zobrist’s preference is reportedly to play second base, although I’d wager that if the clear highest bidder is interested in him primarily as a corner outfielder, that won’t stand in the way of his signing. FOX’s Ken Rosenthal recently reported that the Mets consider Zobrist their No. 1 priority, and that same report indicated that the Royals probably won’t meet his ultimate asking price. ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin added this week that while the Mets may consider Zobrist their top priority, a four-year commitment from them isn’t likely.
Zobrist is coming off a strong season at the plate that was split between the Athletics and Royals. The switch-hitter batted .276/.359/.450 despite all of his home games coming in pitcher-friendly environments. Defensive metrics were uncharacteristically harsh on Zobrist this season, though some of that could potentially stem from diminished range due to knee surgery in late April. Zobrist spent only about a month on the shelf due to that operation, and while it was minor in nature, it’s certainly conceivable that Zobrist’s lateral movements were slowed to some extent following the procedure.
I’m sorry but if a slightly above avg 34 yr old utility players with limited mobility starting point is 4 yrs 60m they need to lower ticket and concession prices….
Hard to remember 2 guys like Murphy and Zobrist that blew their value so high because of increased playoff production. 15mil a year for Zobrist????
Agree!!
One of these guys is a consistent 5+ WAR player who plays 5 different positions…. The other is Daniel Murphy, a guy who is a consistent 2.5 WAR player. The comparisons between the two aren’t even close.
I never said the comparisons were close. I simply stated its hard to remember players blowing up their value like these 2 did
And I disagree… $15 million for a 5.5 WAR player is a steal. Jason Heyward is a 5.5 WAR player getting ready to receive a contract worth roughly $20 million per year.
At age 34?? He ain’t going to be a 5 War player after those years. So Zobrist is insane.
There were multiple 35-year old players with a 4.5 or greater WAR last year. A 4.5 WAR is worth at least $15 million per year by anyone’s standard.
Name the players 35 or older that had a WAR of 4.5 or greater last season. Zobrist wasn’t even in the top 200 for the season last year. Always hit in pitcher friendly parks and struggled defensively last season
Oakland is a hitter friendly park? He also had knee surgery, so last year was an anomaly.
Above 5 WAR last year (35 or older):
Nelson Cruz
Jose Bautista
John Lackey
Adrian Beltre
Nelson Cruz, Jose Batista, Curtis Granderson… Additionally, Tropicana is NOT a hitter-friendly park. It’s pretty much league-average in every offensive category.
As for his WAR a year ago, AsFan89 beat me to it. He missed 40 games, and spent most of the first half either on the DL or trying to play through the injury. There’s a reason his WAR with KC was nearly double that of his WAR in OAK, despite playing in fewer games…. It’s because he was healthy.
Your comparing Cruz, Bautista and Beltre to Zobrist? Sorry I see a guy that has a nice career WAR but has declined every year.
Sorry that Zobrist doesn’t hit those dingers that light up a Sports Center highlight reel… but his numbers indicate a value on the same level as the guys mentioned.
zobrist would have gotten a contract like this regardless. versatility, gets on base, good defense, great clubhouse guy. literally every team wants him.
Zobrist is a star who was worth $15M way before he played well in the playoffs. In fact, he’s worth more than that, honestly. Whoever gets Zobrist for $15M is getting a good deal.
No way. If he’s in his late 20s then sure… At his age he’s not going to get any better and he’s not going to be able to play multiple positions like he has in 2 or 3 years.
The length of the deal and the AAV are separate conversations altogether. His age affects the length. His actual production affects the AAV.
Sorry but I believe AGE will eventually wear down his production. His prior production drives his cost and I understand that… But are you going to buy a gallon of milk for full price if it expires tomorrow? Just saying its a huge risk which isn’t likely worth it
Your analogy basically makes the point for Zobrist –
Heyward, a 26-year old with years ahead of him, is set to make $20 million per year due to his consistent 5.5 WAR production.
Zobrist, a 34-year old with his 8.8 WAR days behind him, is set to get a contract between $15-18 million.
So would I buy a gallon of milk that was set to expire tomorrow? It depends. Am I getting a better price on it? How many other gallons of milk are on the shelf? And what’s the next week of my life looking like – because if I’m leaving for vacation in 2 days, then I could care less when the milk is going to spoil…
That tracks like this — Zobrist at $15-18 mil is a better price than you’d be getting on a player in his prime like Heyward.. There aren’t many 5.5 WAR players in FA. And the team that signs him is likely trying to win the World Series in the next 2 years — and so they don’t necessarily care about what he does in years 3 and 4 so long as he gives them what they need now.
You can explain it however you like. Perhaps I examine it as “league” value over individual team value. To me Zobrist is not a 15-18 million player for the Pirates. To the Dodgers who buy anything that can fog a mirror perhaps. But for my hometown Pirates we are used to the thinking of getting 2 players that could perhaps combine to somewhere close to a solid WAR rather than banking on one.
And to go back to your last comment your basically saying your paying full price for a gallon of milk that you will take one glass from.
Every team values a player differently because every team’s financial restraints are different… The Pirates go for a more aggregate approach wherein a platoon situation between two cheaper players might equate out to a similar WAR over a 162 game schedule. Another team with more money might not care for the aggregate approach because 1) They don’t have enough roster spots to do that at multiple positions and 2) They couldn’t care less about money.
… guess which of those teams sets the market for a player…
As for the milk reference – I said no such thing. about paying full price for a gallon of milk that I’d only get a glass of milk from. In fact, I said that Zobrist at $15 million is a DISCOUNT based on what other players with similar WAR numbers are likely to receive. The discount is due to a likely regression through as he reaches 35-years old.
But again – here’s the thing… If my championship window is at its apex over the next two years, then I don’t care about year three. I need to maximize the next two years, even if that means I’ll be carrying a bad contract for a year or two.
I think basically what justinept is saying is im baking 20 cakes for a bake sale tomorrow and whether the milk expires tomorrow or next week is irrelevant as I need the value now not spread over the week.
Some teams are at a closing window where their window is very short to keep their team intact (ie the nationals) where free agents are coming up and arbitration costs are going to get expensive so they think paying a little more to get the guy to put them over the top this year is worth it to them.
if i remember correctly the Astros pirates and royals couldn’t sniff a playoffs until a few years ago until all their prospects and wheeling and dealing started paying off because they did not have the resources to entice the big names so they had to settle for multiple lesser value players that would equal one higher priced player. so while they will have the potential for longer runs in the playoff scenes they can also have longer runs where they are irrelevant.
Then why do the braves want him? They keep saying they only 15 to 20 million this year?
Where are you finding 5.5 WAR. Baseball-Reference has him with a 3.1 War combining Oakland and KC before deducting for subpar defense. I like Zobrist and don’t think $15 mil is too high considering what some guys are being paid. That said, I would take Brock Holt and Jackie Bradley for the 2016 season over Zobrist and Heyward.
Too often people fall in love with a perception built on a number someone else throws out there, and they aren’t watching how the players do what they do.
I’m discounting a year in which he missed 40 games and played hurt through the entire first half of the season because it’s a career anomaly. So we can start there…
Instead, I’m looking at the guy’s consistency through the course of his career as the 3 prior seasons saw a WAR of 5.7, 5.0 and 4.9 (Baseball-Reference numbers)
As I’ll be citing FanGraphs for the remainder of this post, I’ll throw in their numbers as well — 5.8, 5.0, 5.5 in the 3 seasons prior to the last one. Their projection for Zobrist next season is 3.1.
So let’s go off that figure. FanGraphs has shown that market value for WAR equates to a 1.0 WAR being worth $7 million on the market. A 3.1 WAR would dictate a $21.7 million AAV. A $15 million AAV, thus, would absolutely be a below-market deal.
What is Brock Holt worth?
Now that the Cardinals missed out on Price. I think the will go for Zobrist along with Heyward. Pitcher wise I think it will be Mike Leake.
Forget zobrist resign cespedes and Murphy and say screw you to the critics.
Cespedes 5 years 125 million with 2 team option years,
Murphy 4 years 50 million
Can anyone think of 2 players that blew up their value as much as Zobrist and Murphy did with their postseason play? 15mil for Zobrist?
Sorry for the repost. Comment didn’t show up when I reloaded
I don’t think either player boosted their price all that much with the postseason. Murphy was always going to get four years, and Zobrist’s price is escalating due to the market demand for him. That has more to do with his consistent track record of excellence than 75 October plate appearances.
The perception is that Murphy’s postseason raised his price tag, but the reality is probably just that the general public didn’t properly value him in the first place. He might’ve picked up $4-6MM (1 to 1.5M per year) or so because some team thinks it can permanently get him to boost his power, but a club’s not going an extra guaranteed year or bumping his AAV based on what amounts to two weeks’ worth of ABs.
Chris Carter hit six HR in his final 12 games and is still probably going to get non-tendered or dumped for whatever the Astros can get. Generally speaking, I don’t feel that late surges really impact a player’s market value all that much.
Perhaps your right Steve… But I recall him being a guy that wasn’t likely to receive a QO to now rejecting one. If he is turning into a defensive liability what value does he really have?
Cards dont sign this guy unless he accepts an “Uber-utility” role and more money sadly hes such a great ballplayer too
I feel like I may be in the minority when I say that 15m AAV is a reasonable price for Zobrist. Considering the fact that about 20 teams are interested in him, its a good idea to raise the asking price. Players like him are ultimately valuable to playoff contending teams and he can really add a new dynamic to the clubhouse, especially for young players. With the cost of quality players on the market today, Zobrist getting 15m per is not bad at all
Keep in my no that at 34 years of age, Zorbrist is going to get paid for what he’s ‘done,’ and not for what he’s going to do. Whoever signs him may get 2 years of decent/good play, but any remaining years will be an overpay. His positional flexibility isn’t going to carry as well in his later years.
34 year old on a 4 year contract? I’ll pass.
If Cardinals lose out on Heyward, or any other 1st or 2nd tier SP, I think they would commit a nice amount to him. After they reportedly offered price 27 MM a year (USA Today), they definitely seem to have the financial capability to at least sign Zobrist. Though financial commitment is different than capability. He could be a player that’s very valuable to them given his versatility.
Heyward will not ever perform at a higher level offensively than he did last season. He has a horrible swing and won’t ever generate consistent power. He’s a great athlete and accomplishes a lot because of it, but he is not worth $20 million a year. Jackie Bradley is better right now defensively and at the plate. Better arm, better range and more power.