Braves right-hander Shelby Miller is one of the hottest names on the trade market, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, with as many as 20 teams having checked in on the young right-hander. There’s no indication that anything is close at this time, Heyman notes, and the Braves are said to be asking a huge haul in return for Miller, who has three years of affordable club control remaining.
The Dodgers, Yankees, Marlins, Diamondbacks and Giants have all shown interest in Miller to this point. According to Heyman, the Braves asked the Yankees for right-hander Luis Severino in exchange for Miller, and the Marlins were asked to part with outfielder Marcell Ozuna and other pieces in order to pry Miller away from Atlanta. Those steep asking prices line up with previous reports pertaining to the Braves’ talks with the Diamondbacks, when they reportedly asked that Arizona part with star center fielder A.J. Pollock. (Those talks didn’t gain traction.)
Miller, acquired alongside minor league righty Tyrell Jenkins in exchange for Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden, is coming off a strong debut season with the Braves. The former first-rounder logged a 3.02 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a career-best 47.7 percent ground-ball rate in 205 1/3 innings (the innings total was also a career high). Miller won only six games due to Atlanta’s bullpen struggles and a lack of run support, but that actually enhances is value in a way. Teams won’t be deterred by a poor win-loss record when evaluating Miller, but the lack of wins will suppress his arbitration earnings, as the arb process still factors in pitcher wins/losses rather heavily. Miller’s strong body of work as a whole to this point in his career still makes for a $4.9MM projection from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, but the number assuredly would’ve been greater had his record aligned more accordingly with his ERA.
One factor that clubs may consider, though, is that Miller’s overall numbers are propped up by what was an unsustainable run of sub-2.00 ERA production through the season’s first two months. From June 1 through season’s end, Miller posted a quality (but less impressive) 3.77 ERA with 8.0 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9 across 138 1/3 innings. Miller’s strikeout rates and control numbers have fluctuated somewhat throughout his career, but low BABIP totals and seemingly good fortune in terms of homer-to-flyball rate have led to a large discrepancy between his 3.22 ERA and metrics such as xFIP (4.08) and SIERA (4.10). Miller’s BABIP has always been below the league average, though, as has his HR/FB, suggesting that some of the perceived fortune could be more skill-based in his case.
Ultimately, the value placed upon him in a potential trade (if he is moved at all) will be dependent on whether the club places more emphasis on his ERA or on his secondary stats. Even if Miller is more of a mid- or upper-3.00 ERA type of pitcher, three seasons of control over him would still come with significant value, so it’s logical to see Atlanta placing a sizable asking price on Miller when listening to offers from interested parties.
chad803
Braves need to trade Milller now while he is in prime with a few years of control left. I’d love to see the braves get Joc Peterson and an arm.
christian18cutshaw
To get Joc it wouldn’t bring an arm too. It would take more than Miller to get Joc. If anything Atlanta would be sending an arm with Miller.
seamaholic 2
What if 2nd half 2015 Joc is the real one? Not a whole lot to go on other than that. I don’t think Joc gets you Miller back.
slider32
Braves should look to the Cubs, they have the best young position players. Maybe Miller for Soler.
flynn1280
That is along the line I was thinking.
michaelw
Throw in the Mad Hungarian also we need 2 good pitchers lmao
Brixton
And if Miller’s 2nd half is the real Miller, hes not that valuable. I don’t think Miller gets you Joc back.
Jon429
Miller’s 2nd half was probably more due to frustration at the offense never showing up when he was on the mound. He’s a better pitcher than his last two months of 2015 showed.
Jordan R.
Not to mention his ERA is inflated because of the horrible bullpen the braves fielded and his ability to go deep in games. The Braves could have shaved an entire point off his ERA if they’d have pulled him when most starters get pulled
Brixton
He wasn’t that good in 2014 when he played for the Cardinals, either. He outpitched his FIP by half a run in 2013. He averaged a tad over 6 IP per start, which is average.
Jordan R.
We aren’t talking about 2013-14… Fortunately in Baseball it’s “what have you done lately”
Brixton
And lately, Shelby Miller isn’t very good.
Jordan R.
Again, you’re wrong. Read above.
Jordan R.
“As many as 20 teams” don’t inquire on a pitcher that in your words “isn’t very good”
chesteraarthur
1. We don’t know what level of interest “inquire” means. front offices discuss players all the time and deals go no where. Simply calling and asking “what do you want for miller” would be inquiring.
2. Miller is cheap. So yes, teams would inquire on cheap pitchers.
It probably largely depends on what “isn’t very good” is defined as, as well. A fringe 2/likely 3 starter that’s controlled for 3 years has value. Whether you consider fringe 2/likely 3 to fit into “isn’t very good” is a matter of personal definition on what that means.
Jordan R.
Wow thanks for the definition rundown of various terminology and what It means throughout the game, as well as how often GM’s talk. You should write a book.
flynn1280
Frank wren?
michaelw
what about the Mad Hungarian bring that mother fu#@er back out of retirement and the Cubs are as good as WS champs next year lol rotflmao
Brixton
Teams want him because of what he can do. He was average in the second half last year.
I just don’t believe a 3 starter with 2 starter potential is worth as much as a potential 5 tool franchise CF.
Jordan R.
Dude just stop while you’re ahead.. This is painful to read… You said he’s not a good pitcher, but teams want him because of “What he can do…” I’m assuming that means pitching? Wow.
Brixton
This whole debate isn’t about what I think of Shelby Miller. Its about Miller for Pederson.
Miller.. young controllable, cheap #3 pitcher who just wasn’t all that great for half of last season.
Pederson.. younger, more control, cheap, unproven, potential franchise player.
I don’t think their values match up.
We can agree to disagree if thats the case.
Jordan R.
Yes… But ultimately it doesn’t matter what we think because the talks are happening.. The Dodgers need pitching, the Braves need hitting.. The values are relative to the teams current needs, not what we think these guys are worth on paper.
stl_cards16 2
I don’t think the Dodgers would give up Pederson, but you’re view of the players us obviously skewed. You never seem to mention Pederson’s 2nd half but are pretty stuck on Miller’s.
Jordan R.
Oh I am extremely aware of Pedersons horrid second half, but again that’s not for me to review. All I know is the Braves have acquired over 30 pitchers in a years time and at some point we’re going to have to cash that in for hitters. Nothing we have is going to fetch superstars, so you have to take a chance on guys with high upside. There have been plenty of rookies hit a wall and bounce back just fine
stymeedone
There have been more that haven’t bounced back.
stymeedone
A sure #3 starter for a potential bust OF. Hmmm…you got to ask yourself “do you feel lucky?”
southbeachbully
A pitcher with a resulting 3.67 ERA in the 2nd half vs a rookie who hit .178/.317/.300 in the 2nd half will win every time. You see the value of pitchers with ERA’s in the 3’s vs hitters who hit homeruns but have OPS’s under .800? See Mark Trumbo.
RunDMC
A pitcher finishing with a 3.02 ERA even after a historic losing streak. I love it when people tear down the goods to try and justify the low-ball price. He’s got 3 years of control left and can pitch at an ace-level. To LAD, that might not mean a top prospect haul, but to another team that cares about the luxury tax threshold and/or their budget, that pitching upgrade could be more beneficial if they can’t afford Greinke/Cueto/Price/etc.
chesteraarthur
Shelby Miller is far from an “Ace”, regardless of the varying definition of that term. He was 57th in xfip, 25th in fip, 25th in fwar, and 55th in SIERA. He’s a good pitcher, but he is not an Ace
jo17
Not an ace nut solid number 2 or3
RunDMC
“Ace-level”. I wouldn’t regard him as an ace, but he can pitch ace-level. The strides he’s made in 2015 combined with his previous year’s pitching make me believe that he hasn’t hit his ceiling. Combine that with his 3 years of control and how expensive pitching is AND not surrendering a top pick by obtaining him and they SHOULD be asking a lot for him. A team with an unprotected pick could easily justify giving up a top prospect for Miller with the idea that they keep their first rd pick – something they wouldn’t be able to do if they signed Price, etc.
michaelw
were going to eat in the joint and the sign the Mad Hungarian
christian18cutshaw
It would take something like Miller and Ricardo Sanches to get Joc. I could see the Dodgers going for a trade a lot like last years trade the braves made with the cardinals to get Miller when they sent heyward and walden for Miller and Jenkins.
Something like Miller and and maybe Chris Ellis for Joc and JP Howell. Howell maybe too much Chris Hatcher and Joc could be more realistic.
Brixton
Howell is a FA, I believe.
aff10
He’s not. He exercised a player option I think
Brixton
Okay. For some reason I thought he declined it. i must have glanced at the headline and made an assumption.
Why would he exercise that though?
aff10
Idk why he did. I think it was for about 6 million, which I believe he could’ve exceeded on the open market. Maybe he really liked LA?
stymeedone
A 1 year player option. Won’t help Atlanta in ’17 and beyond.
vamosbravos
Eliminate the word ‘probably’ from your comment
chesteraarthur
I think you’re overvaluing Pederson a little. I don’t think Miller is a great pitcher either, so let me get that out of the way. But Pederson got exposed after teams got some time to review tape from him.
He does not have the kind of value that he did before the season or for the first 3ish months of it. This is not to say that he wont end up making his own adjustments and being a successful player, but right now he is a project.
He actually reminds me a decent amount of the Baez situation. Good prospect with potential holes, comes up, gets exposed, value drops.
Brixton
My hole thing about Joc is that he could very possibly be in the Trout/Stanton/Harper tier in a few things go his way. Shelby Miller is close to an established product. Hes a good-not-great SP.
Jordan R.
HAHAHAHHAAHAHAHAHAHAHA
chesteraarthur
His defense and base running did not translate as expected. Unless he some how finds those parts of his game, I think it’s foolish to compare him to Trout/Harper.
You could say that player A could be that tier if a few things go there way about a lot of players. It doesn’t happen often. That’s why Trout and Harper are as big of a deal as they are.
Brixton
If I recall, they told Pederson not to run as much so he can focus on the others parts of his game. His defense didn’t translate well, but its still his first year. He’ll get better. He has a ton of pop, speed, a cannon and really good OBP skills. If he can improve his BA, he can be a significant player. Maybe the Trout/Harper comment was off-par, but he can still be an elite player.
Maybe a Michael Brantley is a better comp.
chesteraarthur
Baserunning does not just = steals.
Like I’ve said, I agree he’s got a lot of potential, but I think he is likely viewed more as a project at this moment than he is as a Trout/Harper or even Brantley. He certainly could reach that level, but I’d find it hard to believe that a majority of FOs see that as a probable outcome for him at this point in time.
stymeedone
How many YEARS did it take Michael Brantley to develop?
R.D.
Brantley’s contact rate is incredible as is his gap power, Joc’s two worst traits.
stl_cards16 2
Pederson will never have a hit tool like Harper or Trout. Miller has as good of a chance to develop Aroldis Chapman’s fastball.
ssimplisticness
Joc Pederson isn’t even as high on Joc Pederson as you are.
Brixton
I wouldn’t give Pederson straight up. Miller’s peripherals aren’t ace-level and he was really average in the second half (3.83 ERA).
The Marlins weren’t willing to part with Ozuna, the Dodgers wouldn’t give up Joc.
Jordan R.
I think the market is going to dictate what a team gives up for Miller. It’s easy to say those teams won’t give up talent now with all the FA’s still out there, but as the market starts to close up, someone is going to pay up for Miller I assure you
Brixton
Someone might very well give up a ton of value for Miller, but no one is giving up a Pederson-type talent that is already in the majors.
Jordan R.
Pederson has a ton of up-side, but remember the Dodgers benched him at one point last season because of his lack of discipline at the plate. He’s a project at the moment, with a TON of potential. Dude hits for incredible power but 170 Strikeouts and a .210 average isn’t going to cut it. I am not discrediting how talented the kid is but he’s not untouchable
Brixton
Hes not untouchable, but he isn’t being traded for Shelby Miller is all I’m saying.
Miller is good, and he should bring a big return, but hes not going to land an elite prospect.
Jordan R.
Disagree… Good, young, cheap, controllable pitching is hard to find. The Braves wouldn’t be asking if they thought it was a waste of time.
stymeedone
you are right. Then again, Joc is no longer a prospect, and has not shown to be elite.
Jordan R.
I think if Puig is theoretically “Available” than Pederson could be as well. The Braves and Dodgers have matched up quite a bit recently so this could gain some traction. Can’t wait to see what they can pull off
Voice of Reason
Miller is in the majors and has pitched well and is young. Why shouldn’t the Braves expect a major league player in exchange?
Brixton
They can expect an MLB player, just not Joc Pederson. This is the same Joc Pederson who the Dodgers wouldn’t move for Cole Hamels after Hamels had an ERA of 2.46 in 2014.
Jordan R.
Hamels was 1000x more expensive than Miller.. So you have to factor in money
Brixton
Hamels is also a lot better, had more years of control, and the Dodgers could afford him. Not to mention the Phillies were willing to pay like ~36M of his contract (which is what they ended up paying).
Jordan R.
Maybe this is why we aren’t GM’s
R.D.
Yeah that’s before Joc put up a mediocre season in the big leagues. No baserunning instincts, poor contact, and doesn’t take advantage of gaps.
I’d rather the Braves hold on to Miller or go after Soler/a young 3B.
flynn1280
I think maybe try to work out a deal with the A’s to get reddick and lawrie.
stymeedone
Maybe the Dodgers learned from their mistake.
mj-2
Marlins weren’t willing to trade Ozuna plus a haul of others is what it said. Ozuna alone isn’t enough for Miller IMO
justinept
Actually, the reports I read said the Marlins weren’t willing to give up Ozuna PLUS prospects for Miller. I never read any mention of a straight swap between the two clubs.
stymeedone
Miller was average. Joc was below average.
RunDMC
Braves could do better than Pederson. Like him, but we need more plate discipline even if you sacrifice some power.
aff10
To be fair, saying that Peterson had no plate discipline is completely incorrect. He had a walk rate of 15.7% last year, highest among center fielders. There could be things not to like about Pederson (strikeouts obviously come to mind), but lack of plate discipline is not one of them
RunDMC
To be fair, he struck out 35% of the time, and that sparkling walk rate only translated to 4 SB (out of 11 attempts). Maybe his walk rate would be more beneficial if he were a better baserunner, but we’re talking about semantics here. Maybe I should have said contact rate. Either way, we need someone that puts the bat on the ball moreso than can hit it 450ft when they do hit it.
aff10
Fair enough, I don’t particularly love Pederson as a player, and I understand your point about a poor contact percentage. I was just saying that Peterson’s pate disciple is a strength of his game, rather than a glaring weakness
ssimplisticness
As a fellow Braves fan, I’d be very disappointed if we got Joc for Shelby. I honestly believe Shelby is a more valuable asset than Joc is. I think Joc at his best is a poor man’s Andruw Jones. More like if Andruw and Dan Uggla had a kid with their abilities, it would be Joc.
Shelby is a young, controllable, proven MLB caliber pitcher who has already shown glimpses of dominance. Although currently he’s more of a 2 in the rotation, he’s only going to get better and has yet to hit his prime. Yes he had a rough second half, but that’s no reason to give up on him or sell low. He’s only 25. Let me repeat that, only 25(!). His future is bright.
It seems Joc’s value is solely based on his hype and unproven potential. Yes he’s a 4-tool player at a prime position, and yes he briefly lit the world on fire at the beginning of the season. He ultimately batted .210 though. Let me repeat that, .210(!). That’s horrible. Horrible. You practically have to try to do that bad. Not to mention his Adam Dunn-esque strikeout numbers. He’s got speed, great fielding abilities, and potentially great power, but good luck having a career in the bigs if you can’t hit at least somewhat consistently. He too is still young, only 23, so he could certainly improve upon his horrid contact tool, but I believe his second half is the Joc we’ll become accustomed to. A lot of young hitters come up to the bigs and find immediate success when pitchers are still trying to figure them out. Once your weakness has been exposed and the scouting report is known throughout the league, MLB pitchers will continue to expose that weakness. So maybe he improves, but I’m thinking what you’ve seen is the best of what you’ll be getting. Maybe one or two all-star seasons, but he’s no superstar. Some other comparisons might be Chris Young or if he’s lucky Jay Bruce.
RunDMC
As a Braves fan, you should not be comparing someone you don’t want with Andrew Jones – one of the best defensive CF of all-time, and a pure power threat at such a young age. Pederson isn’t Jones in any capacity.
ssimplisticness
Hence why I said “at his best is a poor man’s Andruw Jones”. By using that expression I’m not saying they’re the same player(and I never would as a Braves fan and a Joc non-believer) but rather that their skill sets are comparable, albeit with Joc’s being lesser. Which they undoubtedly are.
Draven Moss
Man, if the Braves could get Joc Pederson straight up for Shelby Miller, that would be a great trade. Miller’s peripherals aren’t very inspiring. He’d probably do really well in the NL West, but Pederson is the better player with the higher ceiling IMO.
ImAlwaysRight
Pederson isn’t better because he hasn’t proven anything. Miller has. Pederson does have a higher ceiling but there’s no promise he will ever be pan out
rick5ful
Nope it will take more to get Pederson, Miller alone will not be enough.
ImAlwaysRight
Why? Pederson hasn’t done anything to prove himself
seamaholic 2
As opposed to the NL East? Hello?
wilymo
hi
stymeedone
Pederson MIGHT become the better player, and probably has a higher ceiling, but as he showed last year, he has a much lower floor. Unless you were NOT surprised by his poor showing last year, how can you say for sure that he will eventually get it? Currently, Miller is the better player, and much, much less of a risk. The deal would make sense for LAD because they are playing to win now, and have the payroll so they don’t have to deal with risk. Atlanta isn’t playing for now, and are on a budget, so they can afford to gamble. Miller makes LAD better. Joc might/should make Atlanta better.
Jordan R.
I think any one of the offers I see in the article above bodes well for the Braves.. I also agree with selling on Miller while his stock is high…
mj-2
Miller for Soler seems more likely than Miller for Pederson. I really don’t see the Braves getting Pederson.
RunDMC
Personally, I would do Teheran for Soler, not Miller for Soler. Miller has shown more upside, though Teheran is more controllable.
nikogarcia
The way I see it, I wouldn’t see the logic behind the Braves asking for a major league ready guy like Soler after trading for prospects earlier in the off season for Simmons. So I would see more like Torres and McKinney for Miller.
RunDMC
Why not? Newcomb’s ETA is 2016 and Ellis could find his way into the bullpen where we need help with the possibility of finding his way into the rotation through long relief with upside. Soler needs playing time to work on his swing, not unlike Olivera.
Nick Lastname
Coppy has made it clear that if they were to trade Miller or Teheran, he would need at least one MLB ready bat in the deal.
OCTraveler
Miller is attractive for the Dodgers and Puig has worn out his welcome with his attitude and antics – but I think his value may exceed Miller’s, so I’d prefer a multiplayer deal which includes these two
RunDMC
Braves care more about their clubhouse than LAD – and when you consider how LAD overvalues Puig and his attitude and risky play, I’d think there’s another prospect worth it moreso than Puig. I like Mazara of TEX.
seamaholic 2
Sounds a whole lot like the Braves leaking a story to drum up interest, to me … but I’m the cynical type.
slider32
I agree, Miller is a good alternative to a high priced free agent. This is similar to the Puig story. Maybe they trade them.
Jordan R.
Because GM’s don’t talk and can’t call BS when one of these stories leaks…
Bob M.
Another Braves starter who can’t get out lefties. He will get moved this off season.
bluejayseveryday
I might be ok if it were Pillar for Miller even though Pillar is so awesome. I wouldn’t want him to be traded but that is the cost for pitching these days.
Mark 20
I love pillar too and am a jays fan, but if i were the braves gm i wouldnt move miller for pillar personally. Young, cheap controllable starting pitching with talent is SO valuable in todays game.
bluejayseveryday
Pillar has Insane defense, plays hard EVERYDAY, steals bases, second highest batting average after Josh Donaldson on the BlueJays, and is also young, cheap, and controllable.
stymeedone
but he’s not a pitcher. pitchers are in shorter supply. quality ones, anyway.
R.D.
Travis and Pillar must be attractive pieces to the Braves, they are exact examples of what Atlanta needs.
dalealvingribble
If The Braves front office is smart which I as a Braves fan like the trades they have done for the most part except for the Alex Wood trade which still is a head scratcher.
The Braves would be more wise to wait until Grienke, Price, Cueto are off the market, and let it get closer to Spring Training and have a desperate GM overpay to fill out their roster before Spring Training. As The Braves have shown. They aren’t afraid to deal late like with the Craig Kimbrel deal.
Jon429
I think the point is to trade him now where there are more potential buyers willing to drive the price up. Still I’d agree that the best move is to wait, but if it were up to me I wouldn’t move him until the July trade deadline. That’s when GMs tend to do stupid things because they have October on the brain.
Jordan R.
But then he’s got the whole first half of the season to ruin his stock in a Braves uniform.. I’d just wait until after the big FA’s start to fall.. Dale is right..
Jon429
Yeah it’s a risk waiting until July. But I guarantee he’d be worth pure gold if the Braves had him in July with his 2015 numbers at the all-star break.
I’m just afraid we’re in for another Simmons-type deal. One that might look nice at first glance but just be totally underwhelming after the dust settles. There’s also the matter of the 2016 season. I know the Braves aren’t competing but it would be nice if they don’t lose 100 ballgames next year. If they keep trading controllable pieces off the 25-man roster they will.
stymeedone
The Kimbrel deal was with Prellar, who was a wild card. Waiting til spring may limit the teams to deal with, as their budgets will be spent. Miller is currently affordable because everyone has room under their budget. Once its all spent, it will be hard to get teams to give up 6 years of control, and minimum salaries, and be able to add his extra dollars. No rock star GM’s this year.
slider32
Hart will look to get a quality established player for Miller.
tdmorgan
Hart isn’t the GM
Joe McMahon
No,he’s the president of baseball operations. So he’s in charge. Similarly to how Billy Beane, Theo Epstein and Dave Dombrowski make the dealsfor their respective teams.
tuner49
With Zimmermann signing for $22MM,Cueto turning down $20MM, and Chen’s agent saying “he deserves Porcello money” (4/$80MM), my guess is the Winter Meetings will be filled with lots of trade talk before any FA signings get done.
Thegreatandpowerfulsimba
If Miller was a FA he would be looking at AAV of 20-30 million. If JOC was a Cuban FA he would be looking at AAV OF 15-20million. JOC will probably have the better career but looking at Cueto and knowing what price/greinke are seeking- Miller is the more valuable product. The johns should wait until after the dust settles and the FA starters sign their big contracts. JOC/Miller straight up is not a robbery. I bet the braves end up throwing in a BP arm. Cabrerra could be sold to dodger fans as a future chapman like closer to people that don’t understand his floor. Anyone not named Vizzy would be an ok throw in.
Brixton
In what world would Shelby Miller made 20-30M AAV in FA?
Jordan R.
The same world that gives Jason Heyward 200MM+?
Brixton
Heyward was worth ~6 WAR 4 of his 6 career seasons. Miller was up-and-down last year, and mediocre in 2014.
Jordan R.
WAR is not the end all stat in baseball
chesteraarthur
Which does absolutely nothing to refute the point that Heyward has been a far more valuable and productive player than Miller.
Jordan R.
I didn’t say it did. I was only saying that a market giving Heyward over 200M is the same market that would pay 20 for Miller.
Yall have to understand that years of control are worth something. Miller is not straight up a 20M a year player, but its worth it to some teams to give up significant value for a guy like Miller. It’s the same reason the Dodgers didn’t trade Pederson for Hamels.. Hamels doesn’t do anything to offset the loss of trading Pederson.
I am not saying I’m right but you have to understand that time value of money is worth something in baseball.. And teams are willing to part with potential superstars to fill a much bigger void in their ball club
chesteraarthur
Then you failed to understand the post and response. He said that he would get 20-30m AAV in FREE AGENCY. This removes any need to value his control, since that poster was speaking directly about FA.
Jordan R.
Maybe I didn’t give a rats hole what the poster said. I post on MY behalf. Ha
chesteraarthur
Then you just look foolish. You responded to a question with a response that had nothing to do with the context of the question.
Jordan R.
Its hard having intelligent conversations in this venue.
chesteraarthur
The irony…
Mark 20
Miller would easily top 20m a year in free agency with his age and recent stats,
Mark 20
Miller would definitely get 20m a year in F/A at least.
Thegreatandpowerfulsimba
Today’s world. Happ gets 12 Cueto looking at 25. Price/greinke asking by some accounts 35. Youth adds value, controllability adds value, mlb success adds value, past trade adds value(he was traded for Jason heyward… So was Jenkins but at the time of the trade Jenkins was a mid minors tj victim). If he was a FA 3 years 60 would be the starting point. Subtract his projected arb from that and you have his low ball excess value. Add in the other factors and he is a very valuable commodity despite not being an ace. We sold peraza for 30 million. If Miller is worth 45 million the he is worth a top ten prospect. Just an opinion lol the johns can’t afford to sell low on Miller. The fan base is beyond irate over the Simmons/Olivera trades.
chesteraarthur
The only way Miller gets close 30m AAV is if that contract is 1 year. I also don’t think he’d get 20m aav unless someone decides to throw stupid money at him like porcello
rmullig2
If they think they are getting Severino for him they are out of their minds.
RunDMC
Forget the Dodgers, use them as leverage to get someone like Nomar Mazara from TEX.
Mike Vergason
I would never trade Severino for Miller straight up I firmly believe Severino has a much higher upside
stymeedone
Never hurts to ask. They might have said yes. Problem with trading with the Yankees for pitching, there’s a drop from Servino to the next prospect, and the next isn’t getting Miller. Kinda like the Addison Russell trade. Oakland didn’t have anything close to Addison to offer, so the Cubs got Addison.
Mark 20
Wish the jays would have inquired on this guy instead of getting chavez and happ but i dont think we have the farm to go get miller after depleting many prospects last year. Well, we have the prospects to get him but it would drain the farm way too much
Lanidrac
I still don’t get why the Braves would want to trade Miller. He’s supposed to be one of their core players when they expect to contend in 2017 & 2018.
At some point you need to keep your young stars and go for it with a few key free agent signings, otherwise you’ll just be perpetually rebuilding like the Pirates and Royals did until recently. Only the Rays and A’s have ever been even moderately successful at constantly selling away their star players, and the bubble finally burst on both of them last year, while neither has a championship flag over that period to show for it.
chad803
I agree that you need to keep a few young stars and that’s why I say keep freedie. Let’s face it, Miller had a great year, but what if it was his best year or a fluke year? So I’m not opposed to trading him for a bat like pollock or pederson who are young guys under team control. We would be selling very high on Miller and getting the best haul for him at this point In his career, just like Simmons.
stymeedone
Is that what the Cubs said when they let Maddux go? What if its his fluke year?
Lanidrac
Everyone seems to forget that Miller made a significant adjustment to his pitching repertoire that led to a vastly improved second half of 2014 before he broke out this year. I’m inclined to believe his performance is for real.
Meanwhile, Pederson had an awful second half in his rookie year this year. Miller has a better track record than he does.
Nick Lastname
Miller to Red Sox for Brock Holt, Trey Ball, and Garin Cecchini.
David 29
so for a 27 year old, a horrible prospect, and a decent pitcher…
nahh
Nick Lastname
Holt is 27 but plays 3B, 2B, and corner OF (and hits for OBP); Ball is the Sox #10 prospect who projects as middle rotation (just like Miller); Cecchini is #11 prospect (far from a horrible prospect) who should be ready in 2016 in the bigs.
Philliesfan4life
Miller will be traded to the dodgers for joc pederson and then the dodgers can forget about greinke, He will be snagged away from the giants
Randy Johnson’s Mullet
Miller for Aaron judge and Gary Sanchez
stymeedone
Servino is asking a lot. Ozuna, who has no recognition of the strike zone and has pithed off his team’s owner, is hardly in the same level of return. If I was Miami, I’d be saying “Deal” instantly, as Atlanta would be asking for something I’m trying to get rid of.
Randy Johnson’s Mullet
I’d like to see Miller traded for Aaron judge and Gary Sanchez. Forget servino he’s untouchable now that simba is gone. Love judges power and he has a huge arm
christian18cutshaw
Dodgers would send Joc straight up before the yanks would even consider parting with judge for Miller.
Nick Lastname
I think both scenarios are not possible. Maybe Miller for Gary Sanchez and some mid-tier guys like Tyler Wade and Jacob Lindgren. To get Judge and Sanchez, Coppy would have to throw in another one of his top pitching prospects at the very least.