Braves right-hander Shelby Miller is one of the hottest names on the trade market, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, with as many as 20 teams having checked in on the young right-hander. There’s no indication that anything is close at this time, Heyman notes, and the Braves are said to be asking a huge haul in return for Miller, who has three years of affordable club control remaining.
The Dodgers, Yankees, Marlins, Diamondbacks and Giants have all shown interest in Miller to this point. According to Heyman, the Braves asked the Yankees for right-hander Luis Severino in exchange for Miller, and the Marlins were asked to part with outfielder Marcell Ozuna and other pieces in order to pry Miller away from Atlanta. Those steep asking prices line up with previous reports pertaining to the Braves’ talks with the Diamondbacks, when they reportedly asked that Arizona part with star center fielder A.J. Pollock. (Those talks didn’t gain traction.)
Miller, acquired alongside minor league righty Tyrell Jenkins in exchange for Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden, is coming off a strong debut season with the Braves. The former first-rounder logged a 3.02 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a career-best 47.7 percent ground-ball rate in 205 1/3 innings (the innings total was also a career high). Miller won only six games due to Atlanta’s bullpen struggles and a lack of run support, but that actually enhances is value in a way. Teams won’t be deterred by a poor win-loss record when evaluating Miller, but the lack of wins will suppress his arbitration earnings, as the arb process still factors in pitcher wins/losses rather heavily. Miller’s strong body of work as a whole to this point in his career still makes for a $4.9MM projection from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, but the number assuredly would’ve been greater had his record aligned more accordingly with his ERA.
One factor that clubs may consider, though, is that Miller’s overall numbers are propped up by what was an unsustainable run of sub-2.00 ERA production through the season’s first two months. From June 1 through season’s end, Miller posted a quality (but less impressive) 3.77 ERA with 8.0 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9 across 138 1/3 innings. Miller’s strikeout rates and control numbers have fluctuated somewhat throughout his career, but low BABIP totals and seemingly good fortune in terms of homer-to-flyball rate have led to a large discrepancy between his 3.22 ERA and metrics such as xFIP (4.08) and SIERA (4.10). Miller’s BABIP has always been below the league average, though, as has his HR/FB, suggesting that some of the perceived fortune could be more skill-based in his case.
Ultimately, the value placed upon him in a potential trade (if he is moved at all) will be dependent on whether the club places more emphasis on his ERA or on his secondary stats. Even if Miller is more of a mid- or upper-3.00 ERA type of pitcher, three seasons of control over him would still come with significant value, so it’s logical to see Atlanta placing a sizable asking price on Miller when listening to offers from interested parties.
Braves need to trade Milller now while he is in prime with a few years of control left. I’d love to see the braves get Joc Peterson and an arm.
Man, if the Braves could get Joc Pederson straight up for Shelby Miller, that would be a great trade. Miller’s peripherals aren’t very inspiring. He’d probably do really well in the NL West, but Pederson is the better player with the higher ceiling IMO.
Pederson isn’t better because he hasn’t proven anything. Miller has. Pederson does have a higher ceiling but there’s no promise he will ever be pan out
Nope it will take more to get Pederson, Miller alone will not be enough.
Why? Pederson hasn’t done anything to prove himself
As opposed to the NL East? Hello?
hi
Pederson MIGHT become the better player, and probably has a higher ceiling, but as he showed last year, he has a much lower floor. Unless you were NOT surprised by his poor showing last year, how can you say for sure that he will eventually get it? Currently, Miller is the better player, and much, much less of a risk. The deal would make sense for LAD because they are playing to win now, and have the payroll so they don’t have to deal with risk. Atlanta isn’t playing for now, and are on a budget, so they can afford to gamble. Miller makes LAD better. Joc might/should make Atlanta better.
I think any one of the offers I see in the article above bodes well for the Braves.. I also agree with selling on Miller while his stock is high…
Miller for Soler seems more likely than Miller for Pederson. I really don’t see the Braves getting Pederson.
Personally, I would do Teheran for Soler, not Miller for Soler. Miller has shown more upside, though Teheran is more controllable.
The way I see it, I wouldn’t see the logic behind the Braves asking for a major league ready guy like Soler after trading for prospects earlier in the off season for Simmons. So I would see more like Torres and McKinney for Miller.
Why not? Newcomb’s ETA is 2016 and Ellis could find his way into the bullpen where we need help with the possibility of finding his way into the rotation through long relief with upside. Soler needs playing time to work on his swing, not unlike Olivera.
Coppy has made it clear that if they were to trade Miller or Teheran, he would need at least one MLB ready bat in the deal.
Miller is attractive for the Dodgers and Puig has worn out his welcome with his attitude and antics – but I think his value may exceed Miller’s, so I’d prefer a multiplayer deal which includes these two
Braves care more about their clubhouse than LAD – and when you consider how LAD overvalues Puig and his attitude and risky play, I’d think there’s another prospect worth it moreso than Puig. I like Mazara of TEX.
Sounds a whole lot like the Braves leaking a story to drum up interest, to me … but I’m the cynical type.
I agree, Miller is a good alternative to a high priced free agent. This is similar to the Puig story. Maybe they trade them.
Because GM’s don’t talk and can’t call BS when one of these stories leaks…
Another Braves starter who can’t get out lefties. He will get moved this off season.
I might be ok if it were Pillar for Miller even though Pillar is so awesome. I wouldn’t want him to be traded but that is the cost for pitching these days.
I love pillar too and am a jays fan, but if i were the braves gm i wouldnt move miller for pillar personally. Young, cheap controllable starting pitching with talent is SO valuable in todays game.
Pillar has Insane defense, plays hard EVERYDAY, steals bases, second highest batting average after Josh Donaldson on the BlueJays, and is also young, cheap, and controllable.
but he’s not a pitcher. pitchers are in shorter supply. quality ones, anyway.
Travis and Pillar must be attractive pieces to the Braves, they are exact examples of what Atlanta needs.
If The Braves front office is smart which I as a Braves fan like the trades they have done for the most part except for the Alex Wood trade which still is a head scratcher.
The Braves would be more wise to wait until Grienke, Price, Cueto are off the market, and let it get closer to Spring Training and have a desperate GM overpay to fill out their roster before Spring Training. As The Braves have shown. They aren’t afraid to deal late like with the Craig Kimbrel deal.
I think the point is to trade him now where there are more potential buyers willing to drive the price up. Still I’d agree that the best move is to wait, but if it were up to me I wouldn’t move him until the July trade deadline. That’s when GMs tend to do stupid things because they have October on the brain.
But then he’s got the whole first half of the season to ruin his stock in a Braves uniform.. I’d just wait until after the big FA’s start to fall.. Dale is right..
Yeah it’s a risk waiting until July. But I guarantee he’d be worth pure gold if the Braves had him in July with his 2015 numbers at the all-star break.
I’m just afraid we’re in for another Simmons-type deal. One that might look nice at first glance but just be totally underwhelming after the dust settles. There’s also the matter of the 2016 season. I know the Braves aren’t competing but it would be nice if they don’t lose 100 ballgames next year. If they keep trading controllable pieces off the 25-man roster they will.
The Kimbrel deal was with Prellar, who was a wild card. Waiting til spring may limit the teams to deal with, as their budgets will be spent. Miller is currently affordable because everyone has room under their budget. Once its all spent, it will be hard to get teams to give up 6 years of control, and minimum salaries, and be able to add his extra dollars. No rock star GM’s this year.
Hart will look to get a quality established player for Miller.
Hart isn’t the GM
No,he’s the president of baseball operations. So he’s in charge. Similarly to how Billy Beane, Theo Epstein and Dave Dombrowski make the dealsfor their respective teams.
With Zimmermann signing for $22MM,Cueto turning down $20MM, and Chen’s agent saying “he deserves Porcello money” (4/$80MM), my guess is the Winter Meetings will be filled with lots of trade talk before any FA signings get done.
If Miller was a FA he would be looking at AAV of 20-30 million. If JOC was a Cuban FA he would be looking at AAV OF 15-20million. JOC will probably have the better career but looking at Cueto and knowing what price/greinke are seeking- Miller is the more valuable product. The johns should wait until after the dust settles and the FA starters sign their big contracts. JOC/Miller straight up is not a robbery. I bet the braves end up throwing in a BP arm. Cabrerra could be sold to dodger fans as a future chapman like closer to people that don’t understand his floor. Anyone not named Vizzy would be an ok throw in.
In what world would Shelby Miller made 20-30M AAV in FA?
The same world that gives Jason Heyward 200MM+?
Heyward was worth ~6 WAR 4 of his 6 career seasons. Miller was up-and-down last year, and mediocre in 2014.
WAR is not the end all stat in baseball
Which does absolutely nothing to refute the point that Heyward has been a far more valuable and productive player than Miller.
I didn’t say it did. I was only saying that a market giving Heyward over 200M is the same market that would pay 20 for Miller.
Yall have to understand that years of control are worth something. Miller is not straight up a 20M a year player, but its worth it to some teams to give up significant value for a guy like Miller. It’s the same reason the Dodgers didn’t trade Pederson for Hamels.. Hamels doesn’t do anything to offset the loss of trading Pederson.
I am not saying I’m right but you have to understand that time value of money is worth something in baseball.. And teams are willing to part with potential superstars to fill a much bigger void in their ball club
Then you failed to understand the post and response. He said that he would get 20-30m AAV in FREE AGENCY. This removes any need to value his control, since that poster was speaking directly about FA.
Maybe I didn’t give a rats hole what the poster said. I post on MY behalf. Ha
Then you just look foolish. You responded to a question with a response that had nothing to do with the context of the question.
Its hard having intelligent conversations in this venue.
The irony…
Miller would easily top 20m a year in free agency with his age and recent stats,
Miller would definitely get 20m a year in F/A at least.
Today’s world. Happ gets 12 Cueto looking at 25. Price/greinke asking by some accounts 35. Youth adds value, controllability adds value, mlb success adds value, past trade adds value(he was traded for Jason heyward… So was Jenkins but at the time of the trade Jenkins was a mid minors tj victim). If he was a FA 3 years 60 would be the starting point. Subtract his projected arb from that and you have his low ball excess value. Add in the other factors and he is a very valuable commodity despite not being an ace. We sold peraza for 30 million. If Miller is worth 45 million the he is worth a top ten prospect. Just an opinion lol the johns can’t afford to sell low on Miller. The fan base is beyond irate over the Simmons/Olivera trades.
The only way Miller gets close 30m AAV is if that contract is 1 year. I also don’t think he’d get 20m aav unless someone decides to throw stupid money at him like porcello
If they think they are getting Severino for him they are out of their minds.
Forget the Dodgers, use them as leverage to get someone like Nomar Mazara from TEX.
I would never trade Severino for Miller straight up I firmly believe Severino has a much higher upside
Never hurts to ask. They might have said yes. Problem with trading with the Yankees for pitching, there’s a drop from Servino to the next prospect, and the next isn’t getting Miller. Kinda like the Addison Russell trade. Oakland didn’t have anything close to Addison to offer, so the Cubs got Addison.
Wish the jays would have inquired on this guy instead of getting chavez and happ but i dont think we have the farm to go get miller after depleting many prospects last year. Well, we have the prospects to get him but it would drain the farm way too much
I still don’t get why the Braves would want to trade Miller. He’s supposed to be one of their core players when they expect to contend in 2017 & 2018.
At some point you need to keep your young stars and go for it with a few key free agent signings, otherwise you’ll just be perpetually rebuilding like the Pirates and Royals did until recently. Only the Rays and A’s have ever been even moderately successful at constantly selling away their star players, and the bubble finally burst on both of them last year, while neither has a championship flag over that period to show for it.
I agree that you need to keep a few young stars and that’s why I say keep freedie. Let’s face it, Miller had a great year, but what if it was his best year or a fluke year? So I’m not opposed to trading him for a bat like pollock or pederson who are young guys under team control. We would be selling very high on Miller and getting the best haul for him at this point In his career, just like Simmons.
Is that what the Cubs said when they let Maddux go? What if its his fluke year?
Everyone seems to forget that Miller made a significant adjustment to his pitching repertoire that led to a vastly improved second half of 2014 before he broke out this year. I’m inclined to believe his performance is for real.
Meanwhile, Pederson had an awful second half in his rookie year this year. Miller has a better track record than he does.
Miller to Red Sox for Brock Holt, Trey Ball, and Garin Cecchini.
so for a 27 year old, a horrible prospect, and a decent pitcher…
nahh
Holt is 27 but plays 3B, 2B, and corner OF (and hits for OBP); Ball is the Sox #10 prospect who projects as middle rotation (just like Miller); Cecchini is #11 prospect (far from a horrible prospect) who should be ready in 2016 in the bigs.
Miller will be traded to the dodgers for joc pederson and then the dodgers can forget about greinke, He will be snagged away from the giants
Miller for Aaron judge and Gary Sanchez
Servino is asking a lot. Ozuna, who has no recognition of the strike zone and has pithed off his team’s owner, is hardly in the same level of return. If I was Miami, I’d be saying “Deal” instantly, as Atlanta would be asking for something I’m trying to get rid of.
I’d like to see Miller traded for Aaron judge and Gary Sanchez. Forget servino he’s untouchable now that simba is gone. Love judges power and he has a huge arm
Dodgers would send Joc straight up before the yanks would even consider parting with judge for Miller.
I think both scenarios are not possible. Maybe Miller for Gary Sanchez and some mid-tier guys like Tyler Wade and Jacob Lindgren. To get Judge and Sanchez, Coppy would have to throw in another one of his top pitching prospects at the very least.